SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX ARIZONA 235 PM MST SAT JUN 14 2003 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER CALIFORNIA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY WARM...AND SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BY MID WEEK. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. .DISCUSSION... SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS JUST SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOWED A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURES OVER THE REGION...AND LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTED THAT THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALL THE WAY TO THE NM BORDER BY 00Z. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN TAKING A WEAK RIPPLE INLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO LEVEL OFF DURING NEXT TWO DAYS RATHER THAN BUILD GRADUALLY. WILL THUS TREND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE-WISE WE CAN EXPECT A SMALL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL DEW POINTS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA...AND WILL TREND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY UP EACH DAY. SHARP RH GRADIENT ALSO LIKELY EAST OF ZONE 24...FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE GLOBE-MIAMI AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SWEEPS INLAND...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CIFM CLOUDCOVER LATER IN THE WEEK. THICKNESSES ALSO WILL TREND DOWN FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR MID JUNE. SIPPLE .PSR...NONE. $$ az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 ...UPDATE... AREAS OF CONVECTION IN N CENTRL OK HAVE BEEN PERSISTING FOR SOME TIME NOW AND COULD VERY WELL PUSH A DECENT OUTFLOW BNDY INTO S CENTRL KS. RUC MODEL TRIES TO PICK UP ON THIS SCENARIO WHICH COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS S CENTRL KS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS STORM MOVEMENT IS NEARLY ZERO WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TNGHT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT POPS FOR NW CWA AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TNGHT WITH PREVIOUS FCST ON TRACK. SUN-MON WEAK UPPER WAVE FROM SATURDAY WOBBLES SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE HANGING OUT JUST TO THE N OF CWA ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY TRYING TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER CENTRL KS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES AT THE MOMENT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MON AND SHOULD KEEP US DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 80S. TUES NO CHANGES MADE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS GOING. EXTENDED: WED-SAT MED RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WED/THUR TIME FRAME...WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WEST COAST WED AND THEN SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES COME THUR. WOULD EXPECT A FEW SHORT WAVES TO MIGRATE THRU THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES ALONG WITH AMPLE MSTR STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A FEW WAVES SLIDING ALONG AND AT THE MOMENT THESE WAVES APPEAR TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO KEEP FCST DRY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HEADING INTO FRI IS WHEN GFS AND ECM BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR CONTINUITY. GFS FIZZLES OUT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WESTERLIES MOVING BACK NORTHWARD BUT ECM SOLUTION SHOWS TROUGH MAINTAINING AND SHIFTS IT EAST. WILL SIDE WITH ECM MODEL THINKING THAT GFS IS DROPPING THE TROUGH TOO SOON AND WOULD EXPECT NEXT GFS RUN TO REFLECT THIS. VERY DEEP MSTR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND COULD MOVE INTO CENTRL KS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ECM SOLUTION SHOWS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO WESTERN HALF OF CWA ON FRI. THE KEY WILL BE TIMING OF THIS WAVE SLOWING DOWN/SPEEDING UP. SO WILL INTRO POPS FOR FRI AND CONTINUE TO WATCH AS TIMING COULD BE MOVED AROUND BY LATER SHIFTS. COULD TOSS CHANCES OF RAIN IN FOR SAT TOO BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THE MOMENT AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT NEXT MODEL RUN HAS TO OFFER. IF THE MODELS KEEP THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION GOING WILL PROBABLY NEED TO PUT CHANCES OF RAIN IN FOR SAT AS WELL. FCSTID = 15/JAKUB ICT 63 85 63 86 / 5 5 0 0 HUT 62 84 62 86 / 20 10 10 0 EWK 63 84 62 86 / 20 10 10 0 EQA 63 85 63 86 / 10 10 10 0 WLD 63 85 64 86 / 20 10 10 0 RSL 61 83 61 86 / 20 10 10 0 GBD 61 84 62 87 / 20 10 10 0 SLN 62 84 62 86 / 5 0 0 0 MPR 63 84 62 86 / 20 10 10 0 CFV 64 84 64 85 / 10 0 10 0 CNU 64 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 K88 64 84 62 85 / 10 0 10 0 .ICT... KS...NONE. $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 916 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 MORNING UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING ZONES TO ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL ADD THE REMAINDER OF WRN MD/ERN WV PANHANDLE AND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. SUNNY START THIS MORNING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS RATHER QUICKLY. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS TYPICAL WET MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND VERY MOIST NEAR THE SFC. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AMS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG. BOTH MESOETA/RUC HIT THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS VERY HARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TOWARD EVENING. WILL ADD DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE ZONES. FFA/EOL/ZFP OUT ASAP. RADAR IS DOWN ETS NOTIFIED AND HOPE TO HAVE RADAR BACK BY NOON. ROSA .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... GOING TO HAVE TO START PHONING IN THE FORECAST FROM HOME...THIS IS GETTING RATHER MONOTONOUS. ANOTHER HUMID...STICKY...THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING KIND OF DAY. WITH PRECIP H2O AMOUNTS AGAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND DWPTS STAYING AROUND 70 DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY THERE WILL NOT BE MORE FLOOD WARNINGS TODAY. FOR THAT REASON WILL COME OUT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL AGAIN LEAVE OUT LOWR S MD AND THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA SINCE THE COASTL PLAIN SE OF THE FALL LINE IS MUCH HARDER TO FLOOD. THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT SW VA WHICH HAS HAD LESS RAIN...AND ALLGNY CO MD AND THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR COORD PURPOSES. DAYSHIFT CAN ADD ONTO THIS AREA IF NEC LATER TODAY. FLOW DOES SEEM TO TURN A BIT FROM WEAK SW TO WEAK W TODAY SO HOPEFULLY THAT CAN LIMIT TSRA ACTVTY SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE POPS AS HIGH LIKLY TODAY INSTD OF THE CATGRCL THAT WE HAD YESTRDY. SPC CAME OUT WITH ANOTHER SLGHT RISK DAY FOR US TODAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH CHG FROM THE PAST FEW. INSTAB AGAIN PREVALENT WITH LIS AROUND -2 TO -4. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HELCTY. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE PRIMRLY DMG WINDS AND POSBLY SOME HAIL. COLD FRONT WILL EBB ACROSS THE AREA OVERNGHT WITH WINDS GOING FROM WEAK WSW TO NW AND EVNTLLY N BY EARLY SUN MORN. WENT WITH HIGHS A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTRDY WITH HIGHS GENRLLY IN THE MID 80S. STRONG .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HUDSON BAY...WITH SHEARING SHORTWAVES LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL SHEAR AWAY SOME ENERGY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE. THIS STRONGER WAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND KICK OUT THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP THE STALLED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DONT BUY THE MODELS BRINGING IN STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. MODEL UPPER AIR PATTERNS SHOW A BROAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH DOMINATING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ETA/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN ALSO AGREE THAT REMNANTS OF SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WORKS SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCES TROUGH. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND MAY EVEN RETURN NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH EACH MODEL...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO FORECAST SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW SINCE I THINK THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AREA FROM NORTHWEST THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOESNT LOOK LIKE A PATTERN CHANGER. INSTEAD...GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN CANADA...WHICH SHEARS THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST...STALLING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ROGOWSKI .LWX... DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001. MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES MDZ003>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES VAZ026>031...VAZ038>042...VAZ050>054. WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ051>053. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 900 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA... WITH RDGING IN NRN BRANCH OVR CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN TROFS OFF THE PAC NW AND OVR NEW ENGLAND. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE UPR RDGING STRETCHES FM ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...AND CWA DOMINATED THIS EVNG BY LLVL NNELY FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF THIS SYS. 00Z GRB/APX/INL SNDGS SHOW DRY AIRMASS ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS WITH KINX < 10 AND SUBSIDENCE INVRNS BTWN H85-75 ABV WELL MIXED PBL. XCPT FOR SOME PTCHY HI CLD OVR THE WRN ZNS...SKIES MOCLR ACRS REST OF CWA. PESKY SC THAT PREVAILED NR THE LK SUP SHORE E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT WITH THE DRY NNE FLOW. SFC DWPTS REMAIN 50 TO 55 ACRS MOST OF FA. SRN BRANCH UPR FLOW ACRS THE SRN CONUS AND OF NO CONCERN FOR FA. MAIN FCST CONCERN TNGT IS MIN TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG. 21Z RUC/18Z ETA DEPICT UPR RDGING/VERY DRY H85-5 AIR REMAINING DOMINANT OVRNGT OVR THE UPR GRT LKS WITH SFC HI PRES RDG BLDG S AND OVR CWA. SO XPCT CLR SKIES/DCRSG WNDS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING CEASES AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS STILL FAIRLY HI... TREND IS FOR READINGS TO FALL WITH DRY ADVCTN. DISSIPATION OF SC NR LK SUP SHORE ALSO AN INDICATION OF THIS DRYING. 4" GRND TEMP MEASURED AT CWA THIS EVNG 58 AND SVRL DEGREES ABV MIN DWPT OBSVD THIS AFTN. THIS WARM GRND AND DRY ADVCTN SHUD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION DESPITE MOCLR SKIES...LGT WNDS AND POTENTIAL FOR TEMP TO DROP THRU CURRENT DWPT. UPSTREAM MINS THIS MRNG GENERALLY 45 TO 50...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH XPCTD DWPT TREND AND GOING FCST. LTL CHG NECESSARY TO GOING FCST. KC AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS... SUN INTO MON...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING REFLECTED IN MODEL SNDGS AS UPR RDG AMPLIFIES OVER REGION. 500MB HEIGHTS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 580S AS ETA/GFS SHOW H7 TEMPS WARMING TO 4-5C. DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ALG WITH FAIRLY DRY DWPNTS OF 50F OR LOWER SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL DIURNAL CU ESPECIALLY WITH LOWERING OF MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MIXING TO 800 MB OR SLIGHTLY ABV WOULD YIELD INLAND HIGHS INTO MID/UPR 70S SUNDAY AND LOWER 80S MON...THIS IN LINE WITH GOING FCST AND 12Z MOS GUIDANCE. .TUESDAY...5H RDG HGTS FLATTEN A BIT AS SHRTWV MOVES DOWN FM SASK AND MANITOBA. ASSOC NRN PLAINS CDFNT MOVES TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z ALTHOUGH GFS ATTM KEEP PCPN WEST OF CWA. WON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WAA HI CLDS AHD OF FRONT OVR WRN HALF OF CWA IN LINE WITH ETA FCST SNDGS...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULDN'T HAVE TOO BIG OF AN IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS. EVEN MIXING TO SLIGHTLY ABV 850 MB WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER THIN CIRRUS...STILL WOULD SEE HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND AREA. LGT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY KEEP ERN COUNTIES A FEW DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 70S). EXTENDED...(WED-SAT)...AS UPR AXIS SLIDES EAST...SHRTWV AND WK CDFNT MOVE ACROSS AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO CWA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE STILL INDICATE CDFNT WILL EXIT AREA LATE WED. SO WILL CONTINUE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST FOR THU...ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH SHRTWV KEEPING COLDEST TEMPS WELL TO NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS NOW INDICATE HGTS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY LATE WEEK (FRI AND SAT)...850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 14-15C BY SAT. SO HAVE TRENDED WARMER TOWARD END OF WEEK BRINGING INLAND TEMPS BACK INTO LOW 80S. VOSS .MQT...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1111 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 UPDATE... JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/POP/SKY GRIDS AND A ZFP MORNING PERIOD CLEANUP IS TRIGGERING THIS UPDATE. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK FRONT STILL JUST TO OUR WEST AND OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. PARAMETERS PLUCKED OFF OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF CNY CAPPED AT ABOUT 800-700 MB WITH NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR HEATING EXPECTED TO BREAK IT WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. OVER NE PA SFC BASED HEATING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THIS REGION THE MOST UNSTABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPLY AS THE WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO BE OVER NE PA MID-LATE AFTN. AS CTP NOTED...PIT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS AND WIND PROFILES FVRBL FOR TRAINING CELLS. RUC MBE VECTOR PROGS AT AVP ARE A LTL FASTER THIS AFTERNOON THAN LAST NIGHT. WE DID HAVE MESO-BETA SCALE LOW TOPPED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING LAST EVENING...SO POTENTIAL IS STILL POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT WITH EACH LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP. PREV FCST HANDLED OVERALL TSRA FCST WELL WITH TARGET AREA FROM THE WY VALLEY OVER TO MSV. ELSEWHERE WILL STILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHCS FOR A SHOWER AS WK UPR TROF MOVES ACROSS NRN NY AND NEW ENG LATER TODAY. BREWSTER EARLY AM DISCUSSION... SHRT WAVE ALOFT PASSING E AND TAKING SCTRD RW/TRW WITH IT. THIS ACVTY SHUD BE GONE B4 DAWN AND VERY ISLD LIGHT RW WORKS INTO THE CWA BY MID MORNING. REGION REMAINS UNDER QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TODAY. SO WITH MAX HEATING THERE WILL SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTRN. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME CAPPING WHICH IN NY SHUD PUT A LID ON DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING JUST CHC FOR RW- IN NY...DOWN IN PA WHERE DWPTS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...PARCELS MAY BE ABLE TO LOCALLY BREAK THRU CAP WITH SUNSHINE ESP ON THE POCONOS AND THEREFORE WILL HV CHC FOR RW- AND AN ISLD TRW-. FOR TONIGHT...MAIN PV LOBE ALOFT SWINGS BY ACRS NY AND SUPPORTS SOME MID-LVL LIFTG. ETA SUGGESTS SOME CHC FOR SOME RW-...MAYBE A HOLD OVER FROM THE AFTRN ACVTY. GFS IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS SHARP AS THE ETA WITH THE VORT LOBE. IN ANY EVENT...IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHC OR AN ISLD RW- IN NY CLSR TO THE LIFTG WITH THE UPR WAVE. I WILL KEEP NE PA MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE HOLDOVER RW- PAST 0Z. IT IS THIS MAIN UPR FEATURE THAT PASSES THRU THIS EVE THAT WILL ALLOW A STRG RDG ALOFT TO BUILD S AND SUPPRESS THIS ACTIVE FRNTL BNDRY TO THE S OF NY/N PA BY TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AND ALSO FOR MONDAY. ISC GRIDS AVBL SOON. THANKS TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR THE EXCELLENT CHAT COORDINATION. THANKS BUF FOR THE CALL. .BGM...NONE. NICOSIA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 843 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 PUBLIC: MAIN CHANGE ON UPDATE WILL BE TO LWR POPS ACRS CWFA OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW SLGHT CHC POPS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN PART OF THE CWFA IN CASE SOME OF THE CONVECTION SPILLS ACRS THE NRN SXNS FROM VA LATE TNGT. RUC MODEL HINTS AT THIS OCCURRING. NO OTHER CHGS ANTICIPATED WITH SLY WINDS NR 10 MPH...EXCEPT BREEZY 10-20 MPH ACRS OBX...PTCLDY SKIES...AND LOW TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MIDDLE 70S. MARINE: LATEST BUOY REPORTS STILL INDICATING SEAS IN 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS. THIS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST...ALTHOUGH FORECAST DOES INDICATE 4 TO 5 FEET. AS WINDS BACK A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT WOULD ANTICIPATE SWELLS INCREASING A BIT PUSHING SEAS CLOSER TO 5 FEET JUST OFF SHORE. WILL UPDATE ONLY FOR WORDING. DO NOT PLAN CHANGE TO GOING SEA HEIGHTS. .MHX...NONE. COLE/FAUCETTE nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 830 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003. ...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TSRA THREAT LATE OVER FAR NW FA... ONE BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MB IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL WAVE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER WESTERN ND ALONG MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION HAVING A TOUGH TIME PROPAGATING EAST AS ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN PART OF STATE. WHILE RUC SHIFTS 850MB THETA-E RIDGE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ND LOSS OF HEATING...LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET...UPPER DYNAMICS AND BOUNDARY REMAINING TO OUR WEST AM HAVING DOUBTS IF ANY PCPN WILL REACH INTO FA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND IF ANY MENTION OF TSRA IS CONTINUED WILL BE ISOLD. OTWS REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. BROAD WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS UP. HIGH CU HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING SOME EVENTUAL CI DEBRIS OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOCLR. ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR UPDATE WILL BE MINOR. .FGF...NONE. $$ VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 326 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING FROM NR CVG-CHILLICOTHE ATTM. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE SOUTHSIDE. RUC SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL VORT SHIFTS FROM WESTERN KY TO ERN KY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. ETA AND AVN ARE SLOWER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN NGM IN PUSHING FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA. FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF FA BY 06Z. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PCPN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK OF THE SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS NORTH OF FRONT ISNT EXTREMELY STABLE...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF NORTH OF THE FRONT. VORT DROPS OUT OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO IL BY TUE MORNING....THEN EJECTS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING MID WEEK. DO RECEIVE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SYSTEM UNTIL MID WEEK...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAV MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK TO COOL...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. CLEMISILN OUT SHORTLY. .ILN...NONE. SITES oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1125 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 LATEST 88D IMAGERY INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING TO LIGHTEN ACROSS ILN FA. ASSOCIATED FORCING FROM MID LVL S/W CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. SUGGESTIONS ARE FOR MID LVL FORCING TO BE REINFORCED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF OUR FA. BDRY LAYER FORCING HOWEVER...APPEARS VERY WEAK AT BEST IN THE VICINITY OF WK FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LATEST ETA AND RUC MODELS CONTINUING TO DROP THE FRONT SLOWLY S THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FEEL THAT THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...HOWEVER MAY ADJUST TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. .ILN...NONE. JTD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 WEAK UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK 925-850 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED IN MESOETA/RUC ACROSS MISSOURI RIVER COUNTIES BY 18Z. 12Z SOUNDING FROM KABR SHOWING COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS BUT THIS WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN ANY INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON. RUC/MESOETA SB CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF WEAK 850 HPA THETA E RIDGE. SO WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL JUST MENTION ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON CHANCE OF CONVECTION...BUT DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN THAT BETTER CHANCE DOES APPEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF EASTERN MONTANA DEFORMATION AXIS. LEFT TEMPERATURES AS IS WITH EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY NUDGING UP MAX T GRIDS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. .ABR...NONE MARSILI sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 910 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 910 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SINCE LATE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPED BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS. CURRENTLY THE NORTHEAST HAS THE GREATEST COVERAGE. A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RUC INDICATES VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AND MESOETA INDICATES INCREASING VORTICITY TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE POPS DECREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS FORECAST AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL WAIT ABOUT AN HOUR AND THEN DROP RAIN CHANCES TO THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TD ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 258 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 AS OF LATE...THE FORECAST PROBLEM SHORT TERM AND EVEN LATER PERIODS ...IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE PCPN DEVELOPS EACH PERIOD. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS OVERALL ARE QUITE WET FOR TONIGHT...AND I DO SEE SOME DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (PER WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE PICS) AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MISS VALLEY REGION MOVES NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR W AND SW...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES. MOS HIGH POPS DON'T LOOK TOO BAD FOR TONIGHT...FACTORING IN AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA PASSING OVER SAME AREAS. FOR LATER PERIODS...STILL THINKING THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES ACTING ON THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR THAN THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPICTED ON SURFACE PROGS. THIS MAKES TIMING PCPN AND ESTIMATING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA VERY DIFFICULT... EVEN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. I DID ADJUST POPS UP GENERALLY ALL AREAS FOR THESE PERIODS...BUT STAYED BELOW THE HIGHER MAV MOS POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THE ABOVE MENTIONED PERIODS...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT FORCE THE INSERTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY COOLING WHEN THE SO-CALLED FRONT EASES SOUTH OF OUR REGION. PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW: FCSTID = 10 CHA 69 83 68 84 / 80 60 30 40 TYS 68 82 68 82 / 80 60 40 40 TRI 65 80 65 80 / 70 70 40 40 OQT 68 81 68 82 / 80 60 40 40 TG ********************************************************************* MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 958 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 ANOTHER DAY AND GENERALLY THE SAME AIRMASS (VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE). ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PCPN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH MOS POPS RUNNING FROM HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. THE QUESTION REMAINS WILL THIS BE THE DAY THAT THIS ACTUALLY DOES OCCUR? AFTER SEEING AT LEAST 2 DAYS OF MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...I REMAIN A BIT SKEPTICAL. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING JUST INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO THIS MAY BE A REAL FEATURE TO HELP INITIATE THE CONVECTIVE PCPN THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. IF WE REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...CAPES SHOULD HIT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF AT LEAST -4 TO -6 DEGS C. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND GENERALLY UNI DIRECTIONAL...PLUS A RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL. THE K INDICES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. WAITING TO SEE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH AN UPDATE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER POPS ARE DEEMED NECESSARY IN A FEW SPOTS. TG ********************************************************************* EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 300 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 TODAY AND TONIGHT...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO REVEAL A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY) IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SOUTHWESTERLY (WHICH WILL NOT GIVE THE FRONT MUCH PUSH). THUS... ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S. LATER PERIODS...MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMPLETELY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ETA HANGS THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT ETA PROJECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY. ETA TIME HEIGHT ALSO DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHILE GFS DEPICTS MID-LEVEL DRYING BY 18Z SUNDAY. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...PREFER BLEND OF GFS AND NGM GUIDANCE FOR POPS. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN. TENDED TO FAVOR SOMEWHAT COOLER GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW: CHA 82 68 84 67 / 50 50 40 30 TYS 81 67 83 66 / 50 50 50 30 TRI 80 65 80 64 / 50 50 50 30 OQT 81 67 83 66 / 50 50 50 30 DMG/LCM ********************************************************************* $$ tn COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO TRY TO RECOVER AFTER MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRI. MOISTURE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN TX AS SEEN IN THE DEWPOINT AND THETA-E FIELDS. HOWEVER...RWS ARE STARTING TO POP UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NE OF CORPUS CHRISTI BAY AS SE FLOW IS ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER ALONG THE COAST. WV ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS NE TX/OK W/ A STRONG S/WV MVG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NM AND WRN TX. MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THIS S/WV. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FEATURE MUCH STRONGER W/ HEIGHT MAINLY ABOVE H5. STILL COUNTING ON THIS FEATURE SPARKING CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SFC ROF ACROSS NE MX AND CEN TX LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING W/ ACTIVITY MVG TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT LOOKING PROMISING. GOING BY THE RUCS TIMING ON THE S/WV WOULD MEAN HIGHER POPS TONIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY SUN AS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL EVENT UNFOLDS. THIS IS OPPOSITE OF INDICATIONS BY MOS POPS...BUT THE MODELS AND MOS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD THUS FAR W/ THE PAST FEW DAYS EVENTS. SPC HAS THE NRN AREAS JUST BARELY INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY LOW LVL JET TONIGHT AND LOWER THETA-E VALUES THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESS. WILL JUST KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR NOW. UPR LVL LOW PRESSURE TROF AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ S/WVS CONTINUING TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF OVR THE REGION...WHILE OUTFLOWS AND WEAK SFC TROFS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ANY CONVECTION IN ONE PERIOD WILL HAMPER CONVECTION IN THE NEXT AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. SO ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL HAMPER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION ON SUN. IF THE TSTMS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN SUN WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH SUN NIGHT REALIZING THESE WILL NEED TO BE MASSAGED W/ TIME AS THINGS UNFOLD. MARINE...WEAK TROFFING TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE OVR THE NRN GOMEX WILL PROMOTE JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE INTERRUPTED BY OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH. MAY NEED A CAUTION FOR SEAS TONIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ NO FLAGS EXPECTED. LONG-TERM (MON THROUGH SAT)...FORECAST STILL REMAINS TRICKY AS GFS/MRF/AVN STILL WANT TO KEEP MOISTURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AROUND DESPITE FORECAST OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME...APPARENT DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER IN AS PER SATELLITE...AND LACK OF 850MB JET FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT ONCE ALL OF THE APPARENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST. ONLY BOUNDARY IS THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH GFS TRIES TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS...IF ANYTHING MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST (DESPITE PWAT FORECASTS 1.5 INCHES OR LESS). WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION MENTIONED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO FIT AREAL FORECASTS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP BEYOND THAT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING THE LONG TERM AND ACTUAL WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW TAKES HOLD AND THE MOISTURE RETURNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF A GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD PROGRESSES. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED ON THE MARINE SIDE OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF CONVECTION. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: CRP BE 075/089 073/089 073 444423 VCT BE 072/090 070/089 072 544423 LRD BE 075/095 074/097 075 544222 .CRP...NONE. 88/MJG...SHORT-TERM 86/GW...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE AXES/WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LONGER TERM CONCERN IS WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES...ALLOWING WEAKNESSES IN THE VORTICITY FIELD TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. DATA ANALYSIS THROUGH 19Z SHOWING AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE /LAPS/MSAS THETA-E AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS/ EXTENDING FROM KGRB-KDBQ-KOTM. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB MOISTURE AXIS NOTED BY THE RUC/ETA MODELS...AND IS ALSO WHERE RESIDUAL TROUGHING FROM THE DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS. THUS...THE EFFECTS FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS...AND THE SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VORTICITY FIELD NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. GFS/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TONIGHT...THE ETA/RUC SUGGEST THAT A BOUNDARY MOVES WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS IN EFFECT DRIES OUT THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES WEST...THE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR THE RUC TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NOTE THIS TO THE RELIEF THIS EVENING SO IT CAN BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE AXIS...BOTH SURFACE AND AT 850 MB MOVES TO A POSITION THAT EXTENDS FROM KMCW-KRST-KMDZ SUNDAY MORNING. SBCAPES AGAIN REACH INTO THE 2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOTED BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING INTO A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WOULD SUGGEST THE SAME SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THIS AXIS. THEREFORE...INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE FORECAST. THE SAME CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THERE BEING NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS THETA-E AXIS REMAINS...WILL CONTINUE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE DATABASE TO PROVIDE A FOUNDATION FOR INTRODUCING CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD IT BE NECESSARY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS A DEEP MIXING LAYER...WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...USED AN EXTRAPOLATED 850 TEMPERATURE AND CAME UP WITH HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...REFLECTING THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCE EAST TO WEST. DITTO FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN A FEW DEGREE RISE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING SHOULD AID THE TEMPERATURE RISES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MADE THIS THE WARMEST DAY. THE GFS IS NOW SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHER WAVES DOWNSTREAM AND RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FASTER. ADJUSTED THE TIMING UPWARD BY 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. .LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR S SECTIONS OF FORECAST ARE WEST OF JANSEVILLE TO DARLINGTON. BEST STORM WEST OF JANESVILLE PRBABLY ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE OF DEEPER LAKE INFLUENCE TO THE EAST. ALSO WEAK SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 10 THSD FT WHERE MESOETA HAS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RUC SOUNDINGS HAVE MUCH WEAKER CAP...WHICH IS ALOWING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO RELATIVELY LOW...SO SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. AS EASTERLY FLOW AND LAKE AIR BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BEOME DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HOWEVER NEW 12Z GFS CONTINUES WEAKENING TREND...WITH MON SHRT WV CUTTING OFF OVER SRN IL...AND NRN BRANCH OF UPR JET WELL NORTH IN SRN CANADA. WITH ONLY A WEAK SFC TROF CROSSING THE STATE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS MAINLY WED/WED NIGHT. THEN NEXT SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. .MKX...NONE. $$ HENTZ wi WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 247 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003 SHORT TERM: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PROVIDING CLEAR CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN NORMAL DIURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING OF THE AIR MASS. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEVADA AND UTAH TODAY. ENERGY MAY BRUSH NORTHEAST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT RETURN FLOW ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE TOWARD SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ETA QPF FIELDS LOOK PARTICULARLY OVERDONE IN THIS RESPECT. WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS NEAR THE DIVIDE ACROSS WEST COLORADO TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMING OVER NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DEPICTED ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER MONDAY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING MAY COME INTO PLAY FOR A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS WITH DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER FAVORING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. MORE CLOUDS MONDAY SHOULD TREND DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LINDQUIST EXTENDED DISCUSSION: TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DIRTY RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN SOMEWHAT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, MOSTLY CONFINED TO ABOUT 600 MB AND ABOVE. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH- BASED, WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PERIODS OF MAXIMUM HEATING. 500 MB TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT AT AROUND -10C, SO LOOK FOR LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. THURSDAY-SUNDAY...RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT, PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY THE FORMATION OF A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME A LITTLE DRIER, REDUCING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY. BA/NL .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 115 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 .OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC H5 COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX W/ ILL-DEFINED LOW INVOF OF RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT VORT CENTERS SEEN OVER NW TX & SW AR...W/ WEAKER VORTS DOWNSTREAM OVER TN VALLEY & CAROLINAS. SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED W/ UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN ATLANTIC WORKING ITS WAY WWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. Q-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. S OF THIS FRONT...AIRMASS WAS MOIST/UNSTABLE. LOCAL 88D SHOWS DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...W/ A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ONGOING ALONG/OFFSHORE OF FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL GA. .SHORT TERM...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LOWER PWAT VALUES. MOS GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND W/ LOWER POPS TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE TROUGH/WEAKNESS ON MON...WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY OVER LA LATE MON...THEN MOVES INTO AL BY TUE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE REGIME (MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW S-SW 5-10 KTS) FAVORS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER SE AL/FL BIG BEND/SW GA TODAY & MON. ON TUE...MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW 10 KTS...COMBINED W/ HIGHER PWAT VALUES & EFFECTS OF SURFACE WAVE TO NW WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER RIDGE TODAY & MON W/ LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY IN 70-75 RANGE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PCPN COVERAGE WILL KEEP IN 85-90 RANGE ON TUE. .MARINE...AS THE CENTER OF BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED E OF WATERS...EXPECT SLY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRACK/STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN NW CARRIBEAN...WINDS MAY BACK AROUND TO THE E/SE & INCREASE ON WED/THU. .FIRE WX...NO REQUIREMENTS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH RH VALUES. .EXTENDED...NO SIG CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS NWWD MOTION & STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM...THE LATTER PERIOD POPS/WINDS/TEMPS MAY BE IMPACTED. GFS SHOWS SIG INCREASE IN MEAN LAYER RH BEGINNING ON WED & SPREADING NNE ACROSS PENINSULA ON THU. NONETHELESS...THE UNSETTLED SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE W/ SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 92 71 92 72/ 30 20 40 20 PFN 89 74 88 75/ 20 10 30 20 DHN 90 72 90 72/ 30 20 40 20 ABY 91 71 92 71/ 30 20 40 20 VLD 93 70 93 71/ 30 20 40 20 CTY 92 71 91 72/ 30 20 40 20 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 916 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 .OVERVIEW...12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS A TYPE 4 SEA BREEZE REGIME DAY SETTING UP OVER THE AREA WITH 1000-700MB MEAN VECTOR WINDS SW UNDER 10KT. MODIFIED SOUNDING (FOR A 92/71 PARCEL) SHOWS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION WITH A CAPE OF 3420 J/KG AND AN LI AROUND -7. HOWEVER, AS ANTICIPATED, DRYING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE PW DOWN TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS DRYING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF N FL AND S GA. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF PM CONVECTION THAT WOULD BE TYPICAL WITH THIS FLOW REGIME. WORKSTATION ETA SHOWS BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE FOR TODAY WITH MAXIMA IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SE AL. .PUBLIC UPDATE...AFTER INSPECTING ISC GRIDS, WE WILL MODIFY TODAY'S POPS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT WS ETA, AND NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT ANYWHERE. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AS ADVERTISED. .MARINE...IT IS A TRANQUIL MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE STILL OUT OF THE E, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SW LATER IN THE DAY. WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 115 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 .OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC H5 COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX W/ ILL-DEFINED LOW INVOF OF RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT VORT CENTERS SEEN OVER NW TX & SW AR...W/ WEAKER VORTS DOWNSTREAM OVER TN VALLEY & CAROLINAS. SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED W/ UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN ATLANTIC WORKING ITS WAY WWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. Q-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. S OF THIS FRONT...AIRMASS WAS MOIST/UNSTABLE. LOCAL 88D SHOWS DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...W/ A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ONGOING ALONG/OFFSHORE OF FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL GA. .SHORT TERM...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LOWER PWAT VALUES. MOS GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND W/ LOWER POPS TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE TROUGH/WEAKNESS ON MON...WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY OVER LA LATE MON...THEN MOVES INTO AL BY TUE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE REGIME (MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW S-SW 5-10 KTS) FAVORS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER SE AL/FL BIG BEND/SW GA TODAY & MON. ON TUE...MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW 10 KTS...COMBINED W/ HIGHER PWAT VALUES & EFFECTS OF SURFACE WAVE TO NW WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER RIDGE TODAY & MON W/ LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY IN 70-75 RANGE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PCPN COVERAGE WILL KEEP IN 85-90 RANGE ON TUE. .MARINE...AS THE CENTER OF BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED E OF WATERS...EXPECT SLY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRACK/STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN NW CARRIBEAN...WINDS MAY BACK AROUND TO THE E/SE & INCREASE ON WED/THU. .FIRE WX...NO REQUIREMENTS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH RH VALUES. .EXTENDED...NO SIG CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS NWWD MOTION & STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM...THE LATTER PERIOD POPS/WINDS/TEMPS MAY BE IMPACTED. GFS SHOWS SIG INCREASE IN MEAN LAYER RH BEGINNING ON WED & SPREADING NNE ACROSS PENINSULA ON THU. NONETHELESS...THE UNSETTLED SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE W/ SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 92 71 92 72/ 30 20 40 20 PFN 89 74 88 75/ 20 10 30 20 DHN 90 72 90 72/ 30 20 40 20 ABY 91 71 92 71/ 30 20 40 20 VLD 93 70 93 71/ 30 20 40 20 CTY 92 71 91 72/ 30 20 40 20 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1158 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 MIDMORNING LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT RADAR SHOWS COVERAGE CURRENTLY INCREASING. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW FAIRLY STATIONARY PATTERN ACROSS FA IN SHORT TERM...WITH IMPULSES PUSHING OUT OF WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED EFFICIENT RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL THEREFORE LET FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE TO RIDE. FLASH FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PIKE COUNTY. HIGH POPS IN MORNING PACKAGE LOOK GOOD. UPDATE REQUIRED THOUGH TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING...OTHERWISE ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED IS TO NORTHERN ZONES TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS A CATEGORY. .JKL...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES. MCLANE -------------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW -------------------------------------------------------------------- 304 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 CURRENT SFC MAP FEATURES STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS BEEN A NEMESIS THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION IS STILL CURRENTLY ONGOING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PW'S CONTINUE TO RUN VERY HIGH AND WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINS AND EVEN WEAKER STEERING WINDS PROGGED FOR TODAY...FEEL THAT FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR ALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW COUNTIES HAVE ESCAPED SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...WOULD RATHER PLAY IT SAFE AND COVER ALL THE BASES TODAY...AS ANY PARTICULAR AREA COULD EASILY EXCEED FFG VALUES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. MONDAY INVOLVES MORE OF THE SAME...WITH MAIN ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION FOLLOWING THE LUMBERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL VARY POPS FROM LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH...TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS GFS DEVELOPS A CUTOFF 5H LOW WHICH HELPS INITIATE SOME DECENT ASCENT. 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW PRESSURE HELPS BRING EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. ETA DOESN'T DEVELOP THE 5H LOW AS MUCH AND ALSO CARRIES IT FURTHER SOUTH. GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD ORGANIZED SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY TOUCHY HYDRO SITUATION. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO BARES WATCHING AS IT UNFOLDS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1045 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 EVENING UPDATE. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS SO FOR UPDATE IFPS WILL DO ALL OF THE WORK. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. OUDEMAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- 117 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS RAIN CHANCES...THREAT OF ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD THE ETA AND GFS INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NGM. THE NGM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. NGM IS LEAST LIKELY OF ALL SOLUTIONS...AND WILL BE DISREGARDED. ETA STILL THE SLOWEST WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT. AT 12Z SUNDAY ALL 3 MODELS SHOW SFC WAVE ALONG FRONT NEAR BOWLING GREEN KY. ETA SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE BEST AND IN MOST CONSISTENT MANNER AS IT MOVES IT EAST ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS TRIES TO DRIVE LOW AND FRONT SOUTHEAST. LITTLE IN THE UPPER AIR FLOW TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND FEEL ETA IS BEST SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE SFC FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAK IT SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN OUR CWA. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES. EVEN AT 00Z TUESDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWFA. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES REMAINS IN PLACE OVER AREAS THROUGH 60 HOURS. DECREASING WIND PROFILE FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DECREASES SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT INCREASES FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS STORMS WILL BECOME SLOWER IN MOVEMENT OVER TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT MAY STILL ISSUE ONE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EXTENDED THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE A DAILY THREAT UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. SBH $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1040 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 TEMPS REMAIN MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. IN ALL...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE IS TRYING TO UNDER CUT THE RIDGE AND IS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE MAINE...AND ANOTHER IS IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...AROUND 145W. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYS THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING AND IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAKOTAS. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TREK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER KMSP BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. TRAJECTORY FORECAST SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS. HOWEVER...LAKE SUPERIOR WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS AROUND 37F. THE DIFFERENCES OF LAND AND LAKE TEMPERATURE SHOULD GENERATE LAKE BREEZES TODAY. THE LAKE BREEZES WILL KICK IN AND LOWER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND AND HOW FAST THIS COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THE GOING FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO. WILL UPDATE MAINLY FOR WORDING. DLG .MQT...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1020 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 ANOTHER UPDATE COMING FOR THE AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE REFLECTING TREND OF DISSIPATING SC DECK VIA DIURNAL MIXING AND CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION FROM HIGH TO THE NORTH. LATEST RUC T/TD DEPRESSION PROGS CAPTURE THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LAYER OF CLOUDS WHICH BLANKETED OUR CWA EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR EARLY TODAY. THIS DECK WILL MIX OUT...BUT RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND SFC BASED HEATING WILL POP FAIR WX CU DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. RUC SHOWS T/TD SPREADS WIDENING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SO DESPITE SOME CLOUDS...ORIGINAL FCST OF MOSTLY SUNNY WILL FINALLY WORK OUT. TEMPS LOOK GOOD SO ONLY OTHER CHANGES WILL BE TO TWEEK HOURLY TEMP/TD TRACES AND WIND FIELDS. BREWSTER ----- 725 AM DISCUSSION ----- WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT A CLOUDY FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING IN NERN ZONES. PRETTY SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK SEEN ON VIS SAT. LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ITS ORIGINS IN LK ONTARIO. CURRENTLY THINKING IT/LL LIKELY DISPERSE BY MID MORNING AFTER THE SUN GETS THE MIXING PROCESS GOING. NO OTHER CHANGES. MJC ----- 228 AM DISCUSSION ----- BIG PICTURE...SHALLOW OMEGA TYPE PATTERN WILL NUDGES POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...TRANSITIONING THE NERN US FROM NW TO ZONAL FLOW. WAVES BEGIN TO AMPLIFY PATTERN THEREAFTER...WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER ERN THIRD OF CANADA...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE NE. ALL INDICATORS POINT TO A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL INITIALLY SIT UNDER 500 MB NW FLOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY CHAGE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW....WITH CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP AS WELL. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN VICINTIY OF 250 MB JET ENTRY REGION...WITH THE UVV MAX REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. ALL THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT SCT CU TO FORM TODAY...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE...AND MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO THE S...SPILLING INTO NE PA. MACHINE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND...SO WILL LET THE FORECAST FOLLOW AND BUMP MAXES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD A COMBO OF MAV AND PREV FORECAST. WILL BE SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL CLOUDS ON WED...AND ADDING PRECIP IN FOR WED NIGHT. BOTH 00Z ETA AND GFS NOW ON SAME PAGE AS TO 500 MB WAVE DIGGING INTO OH VLY. WILL ALSO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN ON WED DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WRKZON SOON...PLAN ON ZONES FLYING AROUND 3. .BGM...NONE. CEMPA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1010 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 FEW SHWRS OVR THE CSTL SXNS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET CNTS THIS AM. THEY APPR TO BE WKNG SUMWHAT. CRRNT SFC ANAL SHWS FNT IN CNTRL VA THIS AM. WK PUSH BHND FNT AND 3HR PRES CHGS XPCT FRNT TO DROP INTO NRN SXNS BY MID AFTN. RUC INDICATING SEABRZ SHWRS WL START ARND NOON WI FRNTL SHWRS ASSOCTD WI FROPA. LI/S ALRDY ARND -5 WI CAPE ARND 3000 THIS AM. PW/S AT 1.8 INCHES ON THIS MORNS RAOB. CRRNT FCST TRND LUKS FINE BUT WL UPDAT GRPHX TO QUICKR WRM UP AND FOR TIMG OF FRNT. MARINE: CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS OK FOR SHORT TERM SCENARIO...BUT HAVE DEEP RESERVATIONS FOR NORTHERN LEG WATERS ONLY ADVERTISED TO RISE TO MARGINAL SCEC STATUS BY TUESDAY WITH BRISK NE TO E FLOW. NWW3 AND VARIOUS PRIVATE WAVE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW SEAS RISING MUCH GREATER (AT LEAST TO 6-8 FT) THAN THE ADVERTISED FIVE. HATTERAS 0-20NM CORRIDOR WATERS COMBINED WITH A TIGHT NE TO E GRADIENT FROM COMBO 1027MB HIGH OFF CAPE COD AND EXITING WEST ATLANTIC 1014MB LOW USUALLY PRODUCE ONE HECK OF A BUMPY RIDE FOR BOATERS AND A BIG CHOPPY MESS FOR SURFERS. IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS MARINE FORECASTER LOOKING AT THE SAME MODEL DATA I'M LOOKING AT...WILL COUNT TO TEN AND LET NEWER MODEL DATA ROLL OFF THE PRESS TO DIGEST AND DISCUSS MATTERS WITH ONCOMING MARINE PERSONNEL FOR LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE WEEKDAY MARINE LINE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON REMNANTS OF TD#2 THAT IS TRYING TO GET ACT TOGETHER UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAN IT HAD TO DEAL WITH SEVERAL DAYS AGO. IT HAS MOVED WEST OF THE WINDWARD/SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO A CURRENT POSITION MIDWAY BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS DEVELOPS THE MASS INTO A LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEEK AND MOVES IT ACROSS N FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. THIS MODEL SCENARIO IS FAR FROM SET IN STONE. YESTERDAY RUNS HAD SAME LOW EXITING OVER S FLORIDA THEN TRAVELING NE AND WELL EAST OF COAST TOWARD CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN ANY EVENT...NWW3 BUYING THE "BUILDING SEAS/WINDS" ASPECT TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK FOR OUR CWF AREA. ONCE AGAIN...NWW3 HAS A MUCH HIGHER RPM OUTPUT THAN OUR 4-5 FT RANGE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR AFORMENTIONED TIME FRAME TIME AND FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT WILL TELL. .MHX...NONE. CGG-G/GC nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 940 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 OH WELL...SO MUCH FOR A DRY FATHERS DAY. SHOWERS PERSIST FROM NR RICHMOND TO DAYTON TO CIRCLEVILLE IN DEFORMATION ZONE. 6Z ETA AND RUC ARE SHOWING THAT WEAK PVA PERSISTS INTO AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO AFTERNOON IN THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER VALLEYS. WILL SPLIT UP CENTRAL OHIO EVEN MORE AND WILL ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS IN PICKAWAY...FAIRFIELD...ETC. WILL ALSO CLEAN UP WORDING FARTHER SOUTH...THAT IS MENTIONING MAINLY AFTERNOON. WITH ON GOING PCPN WILL LEAVE NO TIMING. AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING SOUNDING...STILL LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE SO NO CHANGE THERE. CLEMISILN OUT SHORTLY. .ILN... IN...NONE. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT KYZ089>090-094>100. OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT OHZ079-081>082-088. SITES oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 ******************************************************************** 1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 ...MORNING UPDATE... NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS INDICATED ON THE RADAR. THE RUC SHOWING A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHICH SPELLS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK. THE ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SO NO UPDATE PLANNED. .RLX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ005>011...WVZ013>020...WVZ024>040...WVZ046>047. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES VAZ003>004. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES KYZ101>103...KYZ105. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES OHZ075>076...OHZ083>087. .END/ELW ******************************************************************** 400 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 TODAY AND TONIGHT... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE TO CINCINNATI...NORTHEASTWARD TO PARKERSBURG AND JUST SOUTH OF MORGANTOWN. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF CWA AND ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS THAT HAD FLOODING...HAVE EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ENTIRE CWA WITH EXCEPTION OF PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO AS THEY REMAIN NORTH OF FRONT AND HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN YET. WENT WITH WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ONGOING CONVECTION INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS REGION AND WILL BE GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SOUTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES WHERE 50 POP WILL BE EMPLOYED. AS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWER POPS TOWARDS DAWN BUT START THE PERIOD LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH HIGHS IN 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN 60S. MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD...CWA REMAINS UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ALSO STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY UNTIL A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH...THUS ENDING THE WET AND MUGGY PERIOD. HC/JMV ******************************************************************** 825 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 ...EVENING UPDATE... ISSUING UPDATE TO GET RID OF THE MENTION OF FLOOD WATCH FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. THIS FLOOD WATCH WAS ORIGINALLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT. FLOOD WATCH STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERAL AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE ATTENTION IS NOW FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ALMOST STATIONARY WEST TO EAST LINE OF SHOWERS. THINGS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING AS THE DAYTIME HEATING GOES AWAY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. KF ******************************************************************** 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 ...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A TAD FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. ...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. ...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODEL OF CHOICE DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD SEEMS TO BE THE GFS. SUMMER IS UPON US...WITH THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE DAYS 6.5 AND 7...WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND OVERALL LESS ABUNDANT MOISTURE. .END/ ELW/JS/KF ******************************************************************** wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 145 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 CURRENTLY: AFTER A SUNNY MORNING A GOOD CU FIELD HAS PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT IN THE FL AND AL ZONES. TEMPS HAVE REACHED 90ISH FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW THAT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD FILL IN FOR THE REST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NE THROUGH TENNESSEE...WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH KEEPS A E-W ORIENTED RIDGE OVER FLA CONTINUING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER LA AND MISS. AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF JAMAICA AND IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MID WEEK. 12Z RUN OF GFS MOVES THE LOW DIRECTLY AT THE FL PANHANDLE...AND BY LATE THURS TRACKING OVER THE FL BIG BEND. HPC DIRECTS THIS LOW MORE TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND AND SOONER. THE TIMING...FROM GFS AND HPC...OF THIS LOW MOVING INTO FL HAS FLIP FLOPPED BETWEEN WED TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...SO EXACT TIMING OF THIS LOW (IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER) IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. EITHER WAY..THE MID TO END OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT/MID TERM REMAINS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND IN THE AFTERNOONS AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP. OVER GULF. MARINE: SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE N GULF. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COULD SEE WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP MID TO END OF THE WEEK. WILL BEGIN TO BRING UP AND BACK THE WINDS BUT REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS BROAD SYSTEM. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS EXTENDED: AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE, WHEN, AND HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME...WINDS UP AND OBVIOUSLY RAIN CHANCES DIFFERENT. PLANNING TO BUMP UP THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR MID WEEK FOR COASTAL AREAS, FL AND EAST GA ZONES BASED A BLEND OF HPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...KEEPING NEAR CLIMO WITH TEMPS (MAX-LOW 90S, MIN-MID TO LOW 70S) AND DAYTIME POPS (30 TO 40). .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 71 92 73 89 / 20 40 20 50 PFN 76 89 77 88 / 20 30 20 50 DHN 72 92 73 89 / 20 40 20 50 ABY 72 92 72 89 / 20 40 20 50 VLD 72 93 72 91 / 20 40 20 50 CTY 72 92 72 90 / 20 40 20 50 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ BOLINSKI PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.*********************************************** .OVERVIEW...12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS A TYPE 4 SEA BREEZE REGIME DAY SETTING UP OVER THE AREA WITH 1000-700MB MEAN VECTOR WINDS SW UNDER 10KT. MODIFIED SOUNDING (FOR A 92/71 PARCEL) SHOWS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION WITH A CAPE OF 3420 J/KG AND AN LI AROUND -7. HOWEVER, AS ANTICIPATED, DRYING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE PW DOWN TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS DRYING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF N FL AND S GA. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF PM CONVECTION THAT WOULD BE TYPICAL WITH THIS FLOW REGIME. WORKSTATION ETA SHOWS BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE FOR TODAY WITH MAXIMA IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SE AL. .PUBLIC UPDATE...AFTER INSPECTING ISC GRIDS, WE WILL MODIFY TODAY'S POPS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT WS ETA, AND NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT ANYWHERE. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AS ADVERTISED. .MARINE...IT IS A TRANQUIL MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE STILL OUT OF THE E, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SW LATER IN THE DAY. WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 115 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 .OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC H5 COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX W/ ILL-DEFINED LOW INVOF OF RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT VORT CENTERS SEEN OVER NW TX & SW AR...W/ WEAKER VORTS DOWNSTREAM OVER TN VALLEY & CAROLINAS. SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED W/ UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN ATLANTIC WORKING ITS WAY WWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. Q-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. S OF THIS FRONT...AIRMASS WAS MOIST/UNSTABLE. LOCAL 88D SHOWS DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...W/ A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ONGOING ALONG/OFFSHORE OF FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL GA. .SHORT TERM...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LOWER PWAT VALUES. MOS GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND W/ LOWER POPS TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE TROUGH/WEAKNESS ON MON...WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY OVER LA LATE MON...THEN MOVES INTO AL BY TUE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE REGIME (MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW S-SW 5-10 KTS) FAVORS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER SE AL/FL BIG BEND/SW GA TODAY & MON. ON TUE...MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW 10 KTS...COMBINED W/ HIGHER PWAT VALUES & EFFECTS OF SURFACE WAVE TO NW WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER RIDGE TODAY & MON W/ LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY IN 70-75 RANGE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PCPN COVERAGE WILL KEEP IN 85-90 RANGE ON TUE. .MARINE...AS THE CENTER OF BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED E OF WATERS...EXPECT SLY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRACK/STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN NW CARRIBEAN...WINDS MAY BACK AROUND TO THE E/SE & INCREASE ON WED/THU. .FIRE WX...NO REQUIREMENTS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH RH VALUES. .EXTENDED...NO SIG CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS NWWD MOTION & STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM...THE LATTER PERIOD POPS/WINDS/TEMPS MAY BE IMPACTED. GFS SHOWS SIG INCREASE IN MEAN LAYER RH BEGINNING ON WED & SPREADING NNE ACROSS PENINSULA ON THU. NONETHELESS...THE UNSETTLED SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE W/ SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 92 71 92 72/ 30 20 40 20 PFN 89 74 88 75/ 20 10 30 20 DHN 90 72 90 72/ 30 20 40 20 ABY 91 71 92 71/ 30 20 40 20 VLD 93 70 93 71/ 30 20 40 20 CTY 92 71 91 72/ 30 20 40 20 $$ MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 415 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER CENTRAL CONUS. BOUNDARY IS STILL IN THE VICINITY...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. RADAR IS LIT UP LIKE A CHRISTMAS TREE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION IN A TROPICAL-TYPE AIRMASS. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON THAT WE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE FRONT NEARBY. NOT MUCH MORE TO MENTION UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WIND PROFILE IS WEAK...PWS HIGH...BOUNDARY NEARBY...AND DECENT WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE TO GIVE US A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED FFA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ARE PUSHING FRONT THROUGH BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY FINALLY. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...DESPITE GFS TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF ON SUNDAY WITH WAA. .JKL...FFA ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM. HEINLEIN -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1158 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 MIDMORNING LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT RADAR SHOWS COVERAGE CURRENTLY INCREASING. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW FAIRLY STATIONARY PATTERN ACROSS FA IN SHORT TERM...WITH IMPULSES PUSHING OUT OF WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED EFFICIENT RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL THEREFORE LET FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE TO RIDE. FLASH FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PIKE COUNTY. HIGH POPS IN MORNING PACKAGE LOOK GOOD. UPDATE REQUIRED THOUGH TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING...OTHERWISE ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED IS TO NORTHERN ZONES TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS A CATEGORY. .JKL...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES. MCLANE -------------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW -------------------------------------------------------------------- 304 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 CURRENT SFC MAP FEATURES STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS BEEN A NEMESIS THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION IS STILL CURRENTLY ONGOING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PW'S CONTINUE TO RUN VERY HIGH AND WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINS AND EVEN WEAKER STEERING WINDS PROGGED FOR TODAY...FEEL THAT FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR ALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW COUNTIES HAVE ESCAPED SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...WOULD RATHER PLAY IT SAFE AND COVER ALL THE BASES TODAY...AS ANY PARTICULAR AREA COULD EASILY EXCEED FFG VALUES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. MONDAY INVOLVES MORE OF THE SAME...WITH MAIN ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION FOLLOWING THE LUMBERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL VARY POPS FROM LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH...TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS GFS DEVELOPS A CUTOFF 5H LOW WHICH HELPS INITIATE SOME DECENT ASCENT. 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW PRESSURE HELPS BRING EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. ETA DOESN'T DEVELOP THE 5H LOW AS MUCH AND ALSO CARRIES IT FURTHER SOUTH. GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD ORGANIZED SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY TOUCHY HYDRO SITUATION. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO BARES WATCHING AS IT UNFOLDS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1045 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 EVENING UPDATE. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS SO FOR UPDATE IFPS WILL DO ALL OF THE WORK. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. OUDEMAN $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1242 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 .UPDATE...WITH THE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW...SO WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ADD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. .SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE STATE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DISCUSSION... JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE OTHERWISE TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED... HEALTHY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SEWRD ACROSS S CENTRAL QUEBEC PER LATEST SAT PIX AND THIS RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY PER BUFCAN RADAR... MODELS SIMILAR IN SWING THIS SHORT WAVE AND UPPER LOW SE ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS AM AND THEN E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER ...NICE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDS THRU WED. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY W/ BEST CHANCE EXPECTED THRU THE AM HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW AND POTENT SHORT WAVE SHIFT E OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS GOING LATE WED NIGHT W/ APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT BUT DROPPED MENTION OF TSTMS GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND TO BETTER MATCH UP W/ GYX... MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WILL KEEP SCA FOR SEAS THIS MORNING DUE TO SWELL FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVE WATCH III FOR HEIGHTS. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY LATER THIS MORNING. AVIATION...BRING SHOWERS IN FOR CAR BETWEEN 10 AND 18Z. WILL CARRY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z FOR CAR AND HUL. IN BGR WILL CARRY IFR CEILING THROUGH 12Z THEN MVFR THROUGH 19Z. .CAR...NONE. JAH/CALDERON me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 312 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003 ...FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM TRENDS... 500 MB PROFILER PLOTS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS. 18Z LAPS CAPE VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES RANGED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THIS INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HOWELL...SHANNON...AND OREGON COUNTIES. DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL GO 30 TO POSSIBLY 40 POPS WITH SCATTERED WORDING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BRANSON TO EMINENCE LINE. WILL ALSO KEEP AN ISOLATED CHANCE (20 POPS) ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO ROLLA LINE. THE RUC40 1000-700MB DEWPOINT FIELD SHOWS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS IS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH AN ENHANCED AREA ON WATER VAPOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. SHOULD SEE NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LINGERS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. ON TUESDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED... A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE OZARKS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES. WILL KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. GFS AND MEX GUIDANCE WANT TO DEVELOP SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION....AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE 850 MB WINDS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. .SGF... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ SAW mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 255 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 UNSTBL AMS THIS AFTN WI ISOLD SHWRS POPPG UP UNDR WK UPR LVL DSTRBNC. UNMOD CAPES ARND 2000 THIS AM...MODIFIED CAPES FOR THIS AFTN ARND 5000. WET BLB ZEROS ABV 12000 AND NOT MUCH SHR IN PROFILE...SO DONT XPCT ANY SVR. CDFNT STL IN SRN VA ERLY THIS AFTN. RUC SHOWS FNT INTO CWA BY MID AFTN AND CUTTING CWA IN HALF ARND SS. GUD OMEGA ASSOCTD WI FRNT. GFS TIMING IS FASTER THAN ETA...MR IN LINE WI RUC. GFS DROPS FRNT SLOWLY THRU CWA AND FINALLY S OF CWA BY MON EVE. WI UPR LVL FLO PARALLEL TO FRNT THIS SLOW MVMNT SEEMS REASONABLE. FNT MKS IT MV BACK N TUE NGT WI RTRN TO SW FLO OVR CWA BY WED AFTN. UPR LVL LO RMNS OVR THE TX...LA...MO AREA THRU THE WK SHOOTING PIECES OF ENERGY TO THE EAST AND OVR ECST. LOTS OF DP LYR MSTR AND FNT JUST TO OUR S WL KP CHCS OVR CWA THRU THE WK. GFS BRINGS A STG SFC LO FRM THE GLFMX TO OVR ECST BY FRI. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR AT HPC WI THIS SOLN SO WL GO WI IT. IN THE XTNDD RNG...SFC RDG BLDG OVR AREA BY THE WKEND. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN MRF SOLN BY THE END OF THE PD AS IT HAS SFC RDG BUT STG UPR LVL TROF OVR THE ECST. ANY PSBL PROBS WL BE AFT FP. WL LUK AT GFS XTNDD GRAPHX ON INTERNET WHEN THEY BCM AVBL TO SEE HOW THINGS ARE SHAPING UP. MARINE: MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST CONCERNS WINDS/SEAS N OF FRONT. GNRLY FOLLOWING GFS POSITION OF FRONT AND THIS SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. EVEN IF WINDS STAY BLO GFS VALUES...WUD STILL EXPECT LONG E/NE FETCH AROUND HI TO BUILD SEAS ALONG OUR WTRS...SO WL HAVE SEAS BLDG TO SCA CRITERIA MON NT N OF HAT...>=6FT HAT TO LOOKOUT ON TUE...AND WL STAY BLO SCA WITH THIS S OF LOOKOUT. AFTER FRONT LIFTS BACK N MIDWEEK...SEAS SHUD SETTLE A BIT. WL THEN HAVE TO KEEP OUR EYES ON SYSTEM COMING OUT OF GMEX...AS LATEST GFS BRINGS THIS LOW TO THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z FRI...ALONG WITH ITS ASSOC WINDS AND SEAS. .MHX...NONE. CGG/NMP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...SHORT RANGE - CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG RANGE - THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT ALLOWS WEAKNESSES IN THE VORTICITY FIELD TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. DATA ANALYSIS THROUGH 19Z SHOWS AN AXIS OF THETA-E EXTENDING FROM KALO-KEAU. THIS WHERE THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD /LAPS CAPES 1500+ J/KG...GOES LI 5+/. WATER VAPOR DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOUNDATION FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE INHIBITOR NOW IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN THE GOES SOUNDINGS AND BY THE 15/18Z RUC. AT 850 MB...DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED TO 5-8C TODAY. THIS IS LESS THAN SATURDAY BY A GOOD 5 DEGREES. FROM THESE DATA...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM KLSE-KEAU WHERE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850 MB MOISTURE EXISTS. OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF THETA-E REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES. THIS ALLOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE SPEED OF THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPED UP BY THE GFS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREES WITH A SOLUTION FASTER THAN THE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS AGREES WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...SO WILL AGAIN MOVE UP THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE 6-12 HOURS...CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE FASTER ETA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING INTRODUCED TUESDAY AND REMOVED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FORCING REMAINS WEAK WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW A POSITIVE ANOMALY IN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELD NEXT WEEKEND. THIS ANOMALY IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE MEAN TEMPERATURE. DEDUCE FROM THIS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. THEREFORE...AM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. MOREOVER...TIMING OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT. ENSEMBLES FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS...SO PUSHED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK ABOUT 12 HOURS. .LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ KRC wi