AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 930 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003 AT 1530Z LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE MOSAIC SHOWING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LATEST RUC 700 DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WHERE VALUES ARE GENERALLY GREATER THEN ZERO AS WELL AS BETTER HANDLE ON MID LEVEL LIFT. SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RUC GIVEN ITS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL WITH SOME GRASP OF THE QPF OUTPUT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS. IT ALSO HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST...SOUTHERN THIRD...AND CHEYENNE/KIT CARSON COUNTIES OF COLORADO WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF ABOVE MENTIONED CIRCULATIONS. WILL GO ISOLATED ELSEWHERE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE LIFT. BY LATE IN THE DAY SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY TAKES HOLD SO PRECIP MAY BE HARD TO FIND. TWEAKED WINDS ALSO TOWARD RUC GUIDANCE. HAVE LEFT TEMPS AS IS FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. .GLD...NONE. $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 115 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 MID LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS AREA ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. CLUSTERS OF RELATIVELY WARM TOPPED CONVECTION HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF ACTIVITY IN MISSOURI YET...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CU OVER SW MISSOURI IN REGION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MID LEVEL VORT CENTER NEAR STL WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SHEAR APART OVERNIGHT. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A MDH/OWB LINE. TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. RUC MODEL TAKES THE FRONT TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 03Z. AFTER DARK...WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND. EVEN THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL...THEY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. ETA STALLS THE FRONT NEAR HOPKINSVILLE ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ETA FORECAST CAPES ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WEAK 500 MB TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ETA/NGM/AVN MOS ALL CRANK OUT CHC POPS IN WESTERN KY ON SATURDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS FROM THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. DESPITE BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW...THE MODELS KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S. LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD RESULT IN A RARE DRY DAY FOR THIS MONTH. THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK IS WHEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL STRENGTHEN A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID WEEK. GFS IS THE FASTEST TO DO SO...AND IT WINDS UP A SURFACE LOW OVER ARKANSAS EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT WOULD SPREAD PRECIP INTO SRN MO/WRN KY ON MONDAY. THE 84-HOUR ETA LENDS NO SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL INCREASE DURING MID WEEK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP FORECAST BY THEN. FOR TEMPS...GFS/NGM MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. .PAH...NONE. $$ MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1051 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 .UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD OVER SOUTHERN MAINE. RUC AND ETA MOVES CLOUD COVER INTO CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN ZONES TO WARM UP TO MID 70S AND EXPECT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO REACH LOWER 70S WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING INFLUENCE. WILL UPDATE ZONES ACCORDINGLY. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF AREA. A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY. DISCUSSION... ETA/GFS GENERALLY SIMILAR IN TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS THO AVN FASTER W/ BRINGING PRECIP NE ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SAT. THE GFS TIMING IS PREFERRED ATTM AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP OCCURRING THRU 6Z ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NYS... MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE INCLUDE INTRODUCING PRECIP EARLIER ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND RAISING POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE INTO NRN AREAS ON SAT AND LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT WHILE SRN AREAS GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA SUN...WITH HIGHEST POPS N AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. ETA/GFS ALL SUGGEST KEEPING CHANCE SHOWERS GOING UP N INTO SUN NIGHT THEN SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON MON. LOWERED FCST HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA SAT/SUN WITH FEW IF ANY AREAS LIKELY TO SEE 60F ON SAT... MARINE...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT/SAT AS LOW MOVES TOWARD AND THEN THROUGH GULF OF MAINE. AVIATION...MOIST SERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM THE SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT AND SAT... EXPECT VFR CONDS ALL TAFS SITES THRU TODAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS SRN AREAS AND SPREAD SLOWLY NE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP SRN AREAS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR BY AM. MVFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP NRN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/SAT AM W/ ALL SITES EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS MUCH OF SAT... .CAR...SCA TONIGHT. CALDERON me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 THE LATEST APX 88D SHOWS A FEW MID LEVEL RETURNS MOVING INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS GREEN BAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS DRY. THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS A WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO JAMES BAY. THE SURFACE CHART ALSO SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...HAVE FORMED IN A THTE RIDGE WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AROUND 9C. LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES CURRENTLY...IS FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND VORT MAX MOVING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL LIFT IS FROM WEAK RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING...FROM A 300MB 70KT JET. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SHOWS THE UPPER DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GENERATING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE THTE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN... TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING ONTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT THIS...AS THE CURRENT APX 88D SHOWS RETURNS DIMINISHING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL WILL MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME FOG OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. .APX...NONE. $$ SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 429 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS EVENING INCLUDE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR CNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONCERNS FOR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS/CLDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL INDICATE SPLIT FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH WRN GREAT LAKES UNDER INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM FLOW. WELL-DEFINED SHRTWV NOTED MOVG ACROSS WRN ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST NORTH OF LAKE FM ASSOC INSTABILITY AND -16 TO -18C 5H COLD POOL. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF EXTENDED FROM WRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE CNTRL U.P. WITH SFC DWPNTS IN MID TO UPPER 50S ALG BNDRY. SOME CONVECTION FORMING ALONG TROF AS EVIDENCED BY MODERATE CU ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH INVERSION BTWN 750-800 MB PER 12Z GRB SNDG SEEMS TO BE KEEPING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK SO FAR. TONIGHT...SFC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE ACROSS CWA THIS EVNG WITH CONTINUED EASTWARD MVMT OF SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH 750-800 MB INVERSION WILL BE BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR DVLPMT...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALG SFC TROF AND CONVERGING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FM SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP AND ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD TSRA TO DVLP OVER EAST AND CNTRL COUNTIES ERY THIS EVNG SO WL CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLD TSRA THERE. BEHIND SFC TROF WRN COUNTIES WILL STAY DRY. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DVLP OVER THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS SFC DWPNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH (IN 55 TO 60 RANGE) IN WRLY FLOW BEHIND TROF THIS EVNG. PASSAGE OF WK COLD FRONT FM WRN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DWPNTS INTO LOWER 50S LATE TONIGHT AND VEER FLOW MORE NNW. MIN TEMPS IN LOW 50S PER GUIDANCE AND GOING FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD. SATURDAY...MID LVL RDG FM NRN PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES ALONG WITH ASSOC SFC RDG. NRLY WINDS 10-20 MPH AHD OF SFC-850 MB RDG AND 850 MB TEMPS FALLING 1-2C...SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS FM 3-5F COOLER ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BORDERING COUNTIES. SHADED INLAND TEMPS TOWARD COOLER AVN/ETA MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR NRN TIER COUNTIES AND MID 70S FAR SOUTH...WITH COOLEST TEMPS AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. SUN INTO MON...ETA AND GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS MID LVL RDG BUILDS OVER AREA FROM THE PLAINS...KEEPING AREA DRY INTO ERY NEXT WEEK. NRLY FLOW WEAKENS ON SUN AS SFC-850 MB RDG MOVES OVRHD. 850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE TO 11-12C SUN AND 13-14C BY MON AS 5H HGTS RISE TO 581-583 DM. CONSIDERING WE SHOULD MIX ABV 800 MB UNDER FULL SUN...WOULD EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MON. EXTENDED...(TUE-FRI)...MODELS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD ON TUE AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FM SCNTRL CANADA ALTHOUGH SFC RDGG AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONDS DRY AND WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS STILL IN 13-14C RANGE. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HI CLDS LATE TUE AHD OF APPROACHING TROF ON TUE ALTHOUGH THESE SHOULDN'T IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FM AGAIN REACHING INTO LOW 80S OVR INLAND AREAS. PASSAGE OF SHRTWV AND ASSOC CDFNT PER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE WILL WARRANT KEEPING IN A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WED. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW QUICKER MOVING CDFNT THROUGH AREA BY THU AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WILL GO WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST THU AND FRI AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER TO 8-10C AND CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND CDFNT. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 420 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 ...DRY AIR RETURNS FINALLY... THE PRIMARY PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET? NEXT IS WILL THE SKY REALLY CLEAR SATURDAY THANKS TO THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN? IF SO... WILL WE FINALLY SEE HIGHS NEAR 80? RADAR TRENDS SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIANA SHORTWAVE HEADING NORTHEAST. THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON IT. THE RUC SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT WOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION FROM GETTING THERE. HOWEVER THE ETA AND GFS DO NOT SHOW THAT DRYING AT MID LEVELS. THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW NO SIGN OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT IF ANYTHING MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE. MSAS SHOWS THE SFC BASED LI HAVE GONE NEGATIVE SOUTH OF I-94 AS OF 19Z. SO...I WILL HAVE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. BY THEN THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END. ELSEWHERE... THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GRR CWA OVERNIGHT BUT THAT DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. SO I BELIEVE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG (DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY PLUS LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO REDEVELOP) SHOULD WORK NICELY. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME THICK OVER ANY LARGE AREAS... MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILE VIS TYPE FOG. FINALLY ON SATURDAY THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THAT WILL ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO FINALLY COME IN AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE GRR CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON CU THROUGH. IF NOT FOR THAT SKIES WOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY 18Z OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY PROBLEM THERE WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON SUNDAY. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD AIR AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... THEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO CU. SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS CU DISSIPATES. ZONES OUT ALREADY. WDM EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE EXTENDED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTER OF THE NATION INTO MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A MORE NORTHWARD DRIFT OF AN UPPER LOW THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BY MID WEEK. AT THIS POINT THOU IT WOULD APPEAR TO STAY TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT MI WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER SHOULD BE A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS WITH THIS FRONT. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. JK .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1115 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 ...WILL LOWER HIGHS SINCE CLOUDS ARE NOT DISSIPATING... WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE ETA AND RUC 12Z GUIDANCE AND ALSO LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT IS CLEAR THE CLOUDS ARE NOT GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON. THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER NW LOWER COULD EXPAND SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE BUT EVEN IF IT DID THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING BY US TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON CLOUDS HOLDING ON... I WILL LOWER HIGHS INLAND TO 65 TO 70. LOOKING AT SOUNDING TOOLS... THERE IS INSTABILITY TO TAP AND THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH PLUS THERE IS A VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT THE RUC TAKES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE COULD GET TO 70F BETWEEN GRR AND LAN... THERE WOULD BE OVER 2000 J/KG. EVEN WITH 68 WE COULD GET 800 J/KG FROM THE MOST UNSTABLE LAYER. EVEN SO...I BELIEVE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL STAY THERE (TO OUR SOUTH). THAT LEAVES LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR OUR LIFT MECHANISM. SO... IT COULD HAPPEN...THUS I WILL LEAVE THE LOW CHC POP IN. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1020 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW FAIRLY ZONAL SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA. NRN BRANCH CENTERED ACRS SRN CAN...WITH FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV MOVG E ACRS NW ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED SFC TROF HAS MOVD INTO WRN LK SUP...BUT WSHFT ACRS BNDRY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME ISOLD -SHRA HAVE DVLPD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF OVR WRN CWA...BUT SHARP MID LVL INVRN BTWN H75-8 AS DEPICTED ON 12Z GRB SDNG ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY DEPARTING HUDSON BAY HI AND LACK OF ANY SFC HTG SO FAR HAVE LIMITED SHRA COVG/INTENSITY DESPITE SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE 50S NR 60 OVR THE UPR GRT LKS. SRN BRANCH OF FLOW OVR THE SRN TIER CONUS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THIS FLOW ON CWA IS TO ROB ANY DEEP MSTR FM ADVCTG N TO SUPPLY THE NRN BRANCH WITH MORE WATER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND SHRA/TSRA CHCS. 09Z RUC/06Z ETA SHOW ONTARIO SHRTWV PUSHING DUE E TDAY...WITH BEST HGT FALLS/DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING N OF CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF SUPPORTING 70 KT H3 JET MAX ON SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV WITH WEAK HGT FALLS AND SOME COOLING IN THE MID TROP ASSOCIATED WITH H7-5 THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM. WEAK SFC TROFFING IN COMMA TAIL OF SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CNTRL ZNS DURG THE AFTN BEFORE WASHING OUT UNDER H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC LATER IN THE DAY IN WAKE OF SHRTWV AXIS PASSAGE. LGT WND FIELDS AND SFC HTG INLAND WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID TROP/JUST PTCHY CLDS WL ALLOW FOR LK BREEZES TO DVLP ALG ALL THE SHORELINES. MAX TEMPS YDAY/12Z GRB SDNG THIS MRNG SUG MAX TEMPS INLAND AWAY FM LK COOLING WL BE IN THE UPR 70S. 00Z RUN OF THE WRF MODEL SHOWS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALG WEAK CNVGC LINE ACRS THE CNTRL ZNS THIS AFTN AND MIGRATING SLOWLY E AND INTENSIFYING A BIT IN COVG/INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY HITS LK BREEZE CNVGC OVR ESPECIALLY THE SE ZNS BY LATE AFTN...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RUC/ETA FCST QPF/MSTR CNVGC IN THE SAME AREAS. WORST CASE MODIFIED 12Z GRB SDNG FOR MAX TEMP OF 80/DWPT 60 AND SOME MID LVL COOLING/ EROSION OF INVRN ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV AXIS INDICATE CAPE ARND 900 J/KG AT 21Z FOR SE CWA. ALTHOUGH WBZ HGT ARND 9K FT IDEAL FOR HAIL...WEAK LLVL WND FIELDS/SHEAR/GENERALLY ACYC H85 FLOW AND STRENGTH OF INVRN THIS MRNG SUG THREAT OF ORGANIZED TSRA/SVR TSRA MINIMAL. MORE EMPHATIC DRYING/LACK OF LLVL MSTR CNVGC AND EARLY ARRIVAL OF MORE NEGATIVE MID LVL DYNAMICS SUG THREAT OF SHRA OVR THE WRN ZNS WL BE GONE ONCE SFC TROF PASSES EARLY IN THE AFTN. IN GENERAL...GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON XPCTD SCENARIO AND NEEDS LTL MODIFICATION. KC AFDMQT FM MIDNGT SHIFT FOR LATER PDS... TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SE HLF OF UPR MI SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. OTHERWISE...QVECTOR DIV / SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION TAKE OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AS SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS FCST TO DROP TO AROUND 50 F...MIN TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE AS IN THE GOING FCST. SATURDAY...MID LVL SHRTWV RDG PROGRESSES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES AND SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY NRLY WINDS. LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT WILL ALSO REINFORCE GRADIENT FLOW AND PUSH COOL LK SUPERIOR AIR WELL INLAND OVER THE NORTH. SO...HAVE SHADED TEMPS AOB GUIDANCE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE SHORE. SUN INTO MON...ETA AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING MID LVL RDG FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MDLS SUGGEST PCPN WITH SHRTWVS ALONG WITH PERIPHERY OF THE RDG MAY EDGE AS CLOSE AS NE MN BY MON...EXPECT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF UPR MI GIVEN POSITION OF SFC FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SHRTWVS WELL TO THE NORTH. JLB .MQT...NONE. mi NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 930 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003 .SHORT TERM... NOT PLANNING ON ANY UPDATES THIS MORNING AS CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKING ABOUT THE WAY I WANT IT TO. SURFACE TROF SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA AT PRESENT WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HIGH STILL POKING INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ITS CENTER IN NORTH DAKOTA. MORNING GLASGOW SOUNDING NOT EXACTLY A HARBINGER OF DOOM...SO SEE APPARENT NEED TO GET TOO BENT OUT OF SHAPE AT THE MOMENT. MORNING ETA AND RUC INDICATING CURRENT FORECAST WELL IN LINE...WITH LIONS SHARE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING WEST ACROSS GREAT FALLS AREA...AND NORTH INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WILL DO A 19Z RUN TODAY TO SEE HOW ATMOSPHERE IS DOING AT THAT TIME...AND TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INPUT INTO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. VALONE SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN GOING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN ALL AREAS AND IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN TODAY. SW FLOW ALOFT FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING FORECASTS. FORRESTER .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF AK TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ENERGY WHICH ROTATES OUT OF THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE BC COAST SUNDAY EVENING TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE NE PACIFIC. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION AFTER MONDAY. GFS LOOKS TO BE SUFFERING A CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT GENERATES NEARLY AN INCH OF QPF IN NORTHEAST MT. INTERESTING THOU THAT IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN DOING SUCH... SO CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN MT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND COULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. WOULD FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE EXTENDING POPS FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND THAT WAS THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE THAT WAS MADE IN THE GRIDS. THIS LOOKS TO FIT WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL DRY US OUT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES TO THE PACIFIC COAST HELPING TO INDUCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE AT BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INLAND WITH A SFC TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MT THURSDAY. WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS AS THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SLOWER PROGRESSION. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...BUT NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE OR CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE NEW 00Z GFS SHOWS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CUT-OFF DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BRINGING A SFC FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY FEEL BETTER AT THIS JUNCTURE MAINTAINING THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST. CB KGGW BTT /084 057/079 055/081 7904303 TEBB 056/080 052/081 052/083 052/084 056/ 92330000000 KGDV BTT /083 057/079 054/082 7903303 TEBB 057/079 054/081 052/083 054/084 054/ 92333000000 .GGW...NONE. $$ mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 855 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 CURRENTLY...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ARE STRATIFYING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF THESE STORMS DON'T EVEN CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN OR LIGHTNING...SO NO REAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AT THE MOMENT. IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN A TRACE AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE FIRST HOUR AND A HALF OR SO OF PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. ONE GOOD REASON FOR THIS CAN BE FOUND ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATION PLOT. AS OF 8PM...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WAS 58 OVER 58 DEGREES. MEANWHILE...THE SAME SPLIT AT WILMINGTON DELAWARE AT 8 PM WAS 78 OVER 74 DEGREES. THE REGIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA TO JUST NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH...IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...SO DON'T SEE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER... THESE MAY STILL HAPPEN AS A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY SURVIVE... OR DISSIPATE SLOWLY ENOUGH TO AFFECT FROM THE CITY SOUTHWEST. FORECAST CHANGES AND ADJUSTMENTS...WILL TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER EAST OF THE CITY...AND JUST LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. I WILL ALSO ADD MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR EARLY SATURDAY AS I EXPECT SOME LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND MIST EARLY. MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE OUT OF THE EAST...ALMOST EAST- NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN SHIFT THE WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL ADJUST THEM UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL. ALL DATA SETS FROM AMBROSE LIGHT ARE UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. WIND DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE IS ALSO UNAVAILABLE FROM BUOY 44025. AVIATION...IFR OR LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT STAYS SOUTH. CANT US PROB WITHIN FIRST 8 HRS OF TAFS SO FORCED TO GO WITH TEMPO ON SHRA OR TSRA THIS EVENING. HAVE RECENTLY PULLED THE THREAT OF TSRA FROM BDR AND ISP AS MARINE ENVIROMENT IS KILLING ACTIVITY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. KEPT PCPN MENTION GOING LATER THAN PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS FEELING THREAT SHOULD END AFTER 14Z OR 15Z. HYDROLOGY...EXPECT AVERAGE OVERNIGHT QPF OF GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE THENTH OF AN INCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... ALTHOUGH LONG ISLAND DOES HAVE A CHANCE AT ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA (NYC NORTH AND WEST)...EXPECT AN AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH POSSIBLE. GROUND REMAINS VERY MUCH SATURATED...SO VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE RUNOFF. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DECREASED WITH THE CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH...THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO CAUSE A RUCKUS IS SO LOW THAT THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WATCH WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. .CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH OVERNIGHT NJZ002>005-011-141100. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH OVERNIGHT NYZ067>071-141100. MARINE...NONE. ****************** PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 245 PM ****************** NEED TO GET THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...THEN WILL GO INTO A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING WITH FATHER'S DAY. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN NY STATE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ THEN EXTENDING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. GFS BEGINS TO FORM A LOW ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THIS LOW EVENTUALLY BECOME PRIMARY ON SATURDAY OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHERE AS ETA KEEPS LOW FROM GREAT LAKES AS PRIMARY. BELIEVE BEST AVENUE TO TAKE IS A COMPRISE BETWEEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/QUICKER GFS AND LESS AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ETA...WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE GFS. 12Z RUN OF GFS HANDLING POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DOES NOT BRING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. ETA ALSO BRING BOUNDARY THROUGH VERY LATE TONIGHT. WOULD NOT EXCEPT BOUNDARY TO MOVE NORTH SINCE WE ARE SPRING LIKE PATTERN...IN WHICH WARM FRONT HAVE A VERY HARD TIME MOVING NORTH. WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S AT REPORTING SITES. BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE TO FOCUS RAIN ACROSS AREA...ESPECIALLY WHERE WE DO NOT NEED INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A DRY SPELL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER REGION. ACTUALLY SOME SEASONABLE - SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. WENT ALONG WITH HPC 3 TO 7 DAYS EXTENDED PROGS. ADDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. WILL HAVE REST OF TODAY...TO COVER DRIZZLE OCCURRING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. .MARINE...FOLLOWING A WIND SHIFT TO A WEST DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE SW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 FT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWINGS SE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HEADLINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WILL BE CONTINUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .AVIATION... LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN DRIZZLE AND FOG UNTIL AROUND 09Z. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL DEVELOP PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS BY EVENING. THE HIGHEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...MAINLY FROM 02Z TO 06Z. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MVFR/VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. && .HYDRO...MORE RAIN OVER SATURATED GROUND. RUNOFF SHOULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS. HEADWATERS GUIDANCE VERY LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ. THUS...FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AND BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPANDED TO COVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NY. && ******************************************************************** $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 947 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR YYZ ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS WITH WARM FRONT TRAILING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD FRONT EXTENDED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR STL. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SURFACES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. BOTH THE RUC AND THE 00Z ETA SHOW THE 700MB AND 850MB THETA-E RIDGES LOCATED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCHESTER DUE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GOOD LIFT ON THE 700MB AND 850MB PLAN VIEWS ALSO FORECAST...AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER WAVE FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...MODEL DATA AND CURRENT RADAR INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO FORECAST THIS ACCORDINGLY ESPECIALLY FOR THE BUF AND IAG AREAS. RUC IN PARTICULAR REALLY INCREASES THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT. SPC RAISED NORTH THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...AND LOOKING AT THE DYNAMICS ALONE...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE... PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THE LOW...SEVERE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY PROGS ARE RELATIVELY LOW...LIS OF 0 TO -2C DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA AND RUC DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...AND RH FIELDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FAIRLY SATURATED DURING THE DAY AND ANY CLEARING SHOULD BE FLEETING. COORDINATED WITH CTP...AND AGREE THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LIES FARTHER SOUTH INTO PA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING IS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. MOST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SHORT-TERM LAMP...SHOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ETA MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM. PLAN TO HAVE UPDATE OUT BY 1015 AM. .BUF...NONE. $$ DJF ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 850 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 CONVECTION IS DYING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STILL LATEST RUC DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LIFT MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE THOUGH SO AM A BIT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL MATERIALIZE. ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE AS WELL AS NOTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RADAR ECHOES. WILL UPDATE TO DECREASE OR REMOVE POPS ALL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. MARINE: DIAMOND BUOY REPORTED 19G23KT AT 22Z. GRADIENT A LITTLE TIGHTER N OF OCRACOKE. ALBEIT A MARGINAL SCA SITUATION N OF CAPE LOOKOUT WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT FCST. .MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N OF CAPE LOOKOUT. $$ MLF/WS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 235 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 QUIET DAY TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF SUNSHINE HAS INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER ILLINOIS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TO WEST VIRGINIA THEN SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION NOW ONLY FIRING UP WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH RUC AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE THIS FEATURE ANALYZED WELL AND TRACK 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. KEPT POPS HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH AND EAST AND INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH. SFC LOW TRIES TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW BUT MODELS FORCE IT SOUTHWARD UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES. WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTH AGAIN. STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN BY SUNDAY MORNING DRYING THINGS OUT OVER CWA. SFC HIGH PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. DRY FLOW CONTINUES OVER REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS BRINGS WAVE INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. FOR NOW LEAVE WEDNESDAY DRY. CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES FROM 00Z AND 12Z SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CONSISTENCY SO DRY PERIOD FOR SUN-TUE STILL LOOKS BELIEVABLE. .CTP...NONE DIRIENZO pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 925 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 DISC: 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESS OFF THE SE COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. 88D SHOWS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS HARD TO PICK OUT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RUC/MESO ETA INDICATE A WEAK S/W TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ON THE DECREASE WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO MENTION A SLIGHT POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH TDS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BELIEVE FORECAST MINS ON TRACK. FCSTID = 77 CAE 71 87 71 87 / 20 50 40 50 AGS 69 88 69 88 / 20 50 40 50 SSC 71 87 71 87 / 30 50 40 50 OGB 71 88 71 88 / 30 50 40 50 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ LCV sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1104 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 SATELLITE WV SHOWING S/W CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KY & TN DOWN INTO AL MOVING EAST. ALONG THE FEATURES SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SH AND ISO TS HAS FIRED UP AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND ATMOS DESTABILIZES. MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES EAST OF THE MTNS IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE WITH AROUND 1K OVER THE MTNS. RUC40 DID A DECENT JOB FOR YESTERDAY CONVECTION AND FOR THIS AFTERNOON PAINTS IN GOOD COVERAGE. WILL AGAIN EXPECT SH/TS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE S/W AND SLIDE E/NE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WARM RIDGING ALOFT AND PW EXCEEDING 1.5" WOULD EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND WET MICROBURST...WILL FRESHEN GOING SPS. WILL LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE OF CLICKS DUE TO MORNING CLOUDS AND ON COMING PRECIP...TEMPS CLOSER TO THE FLP. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AS COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAY...WITH MORE SPREADING NW INTO THE MTNS. AND WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE SKY AND WIND GRIDS AS WELL. FCSTID = 16 GSP 83 69 87 68 / 60 40 50 50 AND 83 69 88 69 / 60 40 50 50 CLT 84 70 88 68 / 60 40 50 50 HKY 80 68 85 66 / 60 40 50 50 AVL 79 64 81 63 / 60 40 50 50 .GSP... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ NED sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 905 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION 905 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT TO END ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EAST OUT OF MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EAST TENNESSEE BY MORNING. THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AND HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST MAINLY LATE AND LOWER CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO ALABAMA ACTIVITY. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TD ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 325 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 SHORT TERM CONCERNS...MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH OVER NE AL AND NRN GA CONTS TO INCREASE AND TRACK NE TOWARD SE TN AND SW NC... SO CARRIED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS THOSE AREAS FOR EARLY TONIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY IS ACTUALLY TO OUR NORTH TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE BEST NOTED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTS TO LIFT NE. DID NOT RULE OUT SOME EVENING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN KY/MIDDLE TN THAT COULD AFFECT OUR NE PLATEAU AS WELL AS LEE/WISE COUNTIES OF VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...FELT SAFE TO UNDERCUT MOS POPS AND STAY ONLY 30-40% POPS. FOR SAT...EXPECT PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON ...BUT AGAIN MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE BY SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO SOUTHERN AND NW PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO US TO BE MAINLY A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY...AND MAY NOT HELP TO INITIATE AS MUCH CONVECTION INTO LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AS GFS MODEL INDICATES. THUS... TRIED TO STAY IN THE CHANCE POP RANGE SAT NIGHT...AND THEN TAPERED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE PARTIALLY TO MESH BETTER WITH JKL AND GSP GRIDS. EXTENDED...NE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE PICTURE AND HEIGHTS RISE...SO WE KEPT EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW. ECMWF/UKMET/MRF(GFS) DEPICT AT LEAST A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUE/WED...SO POPS WERE ADDED FOR MAINLY THU/FRI. OTHERWISE...PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS FOLLOW: FCSTID = 10 CHA 69 84 68 86 / 50 60 50 20 TYS 68 83 66 84 / 40 50 50 20 TRI 65 80 63 82 / 30 50 50 20 OQT 67 83 66 84 / 40 50 50 20 TG ********************************************************************* MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 1010 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 AFTER SEEING MODELS/MOS OVER PLAY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...HAVE BECOME MORE SKEPTICAL. MODIFIED BNA AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES REACHING AROUND 1500 J/KG IF TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. APPARENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THIS MORNING (PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS) ARE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NE THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER NM HEADED FOR W TX. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DID NOT REVEAL ANY BOUNDARY THAT WOULD HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LIKELY POPS ARE TOO HIGH ACROSS THE BOARD. LATEST RADAR DATA DOES SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NRN AL AND GA...MOVING NE INTO THE SE CORNER OF TN AND SW TIP OF NC. RUC MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT LIKELY POPS MIGHT STILL BE WARRANTED FOR SE TN AND SW NC. OTHERWISE...MIGHT SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION GET GOING OR MOVE INTO THE NE PLATEAU COUNTIES. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. TG ********************************************************************* EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 315 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003 TODAY AND TONIGHT...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION... WITH RADARS REVEALING SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLATEAU. WILL PLAN TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION... WITH TEMPS REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S. LATER PERIODS...MODELS PROJECT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SINK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AS DRIER AIR DISPLACES THE MOIST AIR AT NEARLY ALL LEVELS. THEREFORE...EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE BY THE FOURTH PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. ETA DEPICTS LEFT OVER PRECIP IN THE AREA AROUND 12Z SUNDAY WHILE GFS DEPICTS AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR FOURTH PERIOD POPS. GENERALLY WENT WITH BLEND FOR TEMPS ALSO. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW: CHA 85 68 85 67 / 60 50 50 30 TYS 84 66 83 66 / 60 50 50 20 TRI 81 63 80 63 / 60 50 50 30 OQT 84 66 83 66 / 60 50 50 20 DMG/LCM ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE 920 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003 AREA RADARS ARE FAIRLY QUITE AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED. RUC MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT-WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS OVERNIGHT... BUT LOWER THEM TO 40-50 PERCENT. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD. MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL GIVEN BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. DH ********************************************************************* $$ tn COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 250 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 ...GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG S/WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO FAR WRN TX W/ STRONG CONVECTION FIRING ALL OVER CEN TX IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPR DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE VORT. CONVECTION IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BORDER ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT ACTIVITY AND/OR OUTFLOWS FROM IT TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE S/WV MVS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT IN NRN ZONES AS A GOOD PORTION OF THE S/WV TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING GOOD DYNAMICAL LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AND THE CAP INCREASES AS YOU MOVE SOUTH DUE TO A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVR THE GOMEX FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY TSTM COMPLEX AND WILL PROVIDE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS STH TX...MAKING THIS A VERY DIFFICULT PRECIP FORECAST. WILL KEEP CHC/SCT POPS ALL BUT THE CRP ZONES (KEEPING 20S THERE...THE EVENING CREW MAY NEED TO BUMP THESE UP IN AN UPDATE). SPC HAS NRN AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLT RISK OF SVR TSTMS...AND MAY NEED TO PLAY UP THE POSSIBILITY A LITTLE MORE IN AN UPDATED HWO THIS EVENING. SAT'S FORECAST IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE OUTFLOWS LAY COME MORNING. SHOULD CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS COMPLETELY ROLE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY END CHCS FOR MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. WILL KEEP A BLANKET 30 POP ALL ZONES FOR NOW COUNTING ON LINGERING ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PRODUCE A CUT OFF LOW NEAR ERN OK ON SAT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND THE CAP WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL S/WV AS A POOL OF MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. TIMING IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER S/WV ROTATES AROUND THE LOW TO THE NE. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING SAT NIGHT. LONG-TERM (SUN THROUGH FRI)...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...CONCERN WILL BE FOR REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LINGERING ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD AND LESSEN THEM DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY (I.E. WILL PLAY THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SCENARIO). WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TREND AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN LESSENING CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH NO POPS AFTERWARDS. AGAIN...ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH I BELIEVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST NOT TO IMPACT OUR AREA. JUST FIND IT HARD TO BUY THE AVN/GFS KEEPING POPS IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OBTAINING A WESTERLY COMPONENT HERE. WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WILL GO WITH COOLER MINS (WHICH IF WE MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL OR STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE WARMER THAN FORECAST) AND NOT LET MAXES UP TOO HIGH WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING. WILL BEGIN A GENERAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: CRP BT 079/093 076/089 074 23354 VCT BT 077/093 073/088 073 53454 LRD BT 079/101 077/095 076 43454 .CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON 88/MJG...SHORT-TERM 86/GW...LONG-TERM tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1015 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE NRN GOMEX WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVR WEST TEXAS. W/ 35 KNOTS AT 900 FT ON THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOOKING IN THE MID/UPR LVLS...WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG S/WV APPROACHING WRN TEXAS W/ A 70KT JET STREAK SPREADING ACROSS WRN/CEN TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION IN THE DRT VCNTY. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST IN THE FIRST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR FEATURES WILL NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHEN WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR AN MCS MVG TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NW AS STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS CEN TX. WILL BUMP THE WINDS UP IN THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREAS TO 20-25 MPH BASED OF LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE WHICH WILL REQUIRE WINDY WORDING. BREEZY SHOULD SUFFICE ELSEWHERE. MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS OK IN THE WRN ZONES. STILL THINK THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL HAVE TROUBLE VERIFYING IN THE ERN ZONES IN STRONG SRLY FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS. MARINE...SCA ALL ZONES LOOKS FINE. .CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON 88/MJG...SHORT-TERM 86/GW...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 253 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2003 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...A FEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MOORING AS THE RUC ADVERTISED. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE REMAINING BOUNDARIES COLLIDING ACROSS THE AREA WORKING WITH THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES THAT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD THIS MORNING AND HOPE THE STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DISSIPATE. WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW AND WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME LATCHING ONTO AND DEVELOPING ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE. WIDESPREAD LOW POPS SEEM TO BE THE MODEL COMPROMISE. THE AVN IS TOO COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND TOO WARM WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ETA WARMER HIGHS AND COOLER LOWS. WILL ALSO BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TOWARDS THE HIGHER ETA POPS. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WEAK TROUGH THAT IS DUE TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. ALOFT...THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING SLIGHTLY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST. THE EXTENDED PROGS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP ALL ELSE IN THE EXTENDED DRY. .GLD...NONE. $$ LOCKHART ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 150 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 AT MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS POSITIONED NEAR KEVV WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE NEAR TERM CONCERN IS ANY NEED FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY ACROSS MY EASTERN AND SOUTHESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE TROUGH EXITS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC SOLUTIONS...I/M LEANING TOWARD A CONTINUED ANSWER OF YES AS THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A 30 POP FOR THAT AREA. SEEING RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...THAT POP MAY NEED INCREASED A LITTLE. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH ISSUANCE TIME. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH GETS CLOSER TO THE THE REGION. GIVEN OUR MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...REDUCED CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WILL PLACE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS AND MENTION THE CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BOTH THE GFS AND NGM SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AFTER SEARCHING FOR A LITTLE BIT TO SEE FROM WHAT FEATURE THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING FORMED...IT APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE IS COUNTING ON THE 850 TROUGH TO DO THIS...AS THAT FEATURE WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION AND STILL BE RELATIVELY SATURATED. THE FORECAST NGM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM 850 MB MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN IF CONVECTION DID DEVELOP IT WOULD QUICKLY ENCOUNTER A CAP AT THE 650 MB LEVEL WITH PERHAPS ONLY ENOUGH CAPE FOR SOME TOWERING CU. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY SUNDAY FORECAST BUT UP THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE. THE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD DAY TO DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND PERSISTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SPINNING PERIODIC OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE TO THANK FOR THIS. .PAH...NONE. $$ DFS ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 307 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 TEMPS ONLY REAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXITING SHORTWAVE IN ERN ONTARIO...WITH BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS WELL INTO CANADA. WK SFC TROF WHICH HELPED TO SPARK SOME MINOR CONVECTION LAST EVENING IN THE SRN U P HAS PUSHED SE OF THE CWA. SHRA/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF HAVE MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL...LEAVING US UNDER MCLR SKIES AND A BRIGHT MOON. W/ WK NW FLOW AND DEWPTS LINGERING IN LOWER 50S...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY IN WAKE OF TROF. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS WE MIX DOWN DRIER AIR AND INCREASED NLY WINDS. MESOETA/RUC SHOW 950MB WINDS PICKING UP TO 15-20KT IN EAST HALF...AND THIS WILL NOT ONLY PUSH LAKE SUPERIOR-COOLED AIR FURTHER INLAND...BUT ALSO MORE THAN OFFSET A LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...COOLEST AIR MISSES US TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT H8 TEMPS DO DROP TO NEAR 10C OVER THE U P. W/ GOOD VERTICAL MIXING (TO NEAR 800MB PER MESOETA SOUNDINGS)...THIS WOULD YIELD MID 70S INLAND. FOLKS RIGHT ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ABOVE 60F (IF THAT). W/ MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR (SEE 00Z WPL SOUNDING)...AM EXPECTING SFC DEWPTS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 40S THIS AFTN. A MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDING FOR 75/49 INLAND THIS AFTN IS BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HIGH-BASED PANCAKE CU...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CLOUD COVER. DRY AIR (PWATS DROPPING TO NEAR 1/2 INCH) AND BUILDING HIGH PRES SETTING STAGE FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST LOWS DOWN TO MID 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TNGT...BUT EAST SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WEAK NLY FLOW PERSISTS. THIS CONCURS W/ MOST GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED AFTN DEWPTS. SUN INTO MON...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER 580S. ETA/GFS SHOW H7 TEMPS OF 4-5C...WHICH WITH SFC DEWPTS NO HIGHER THAN 50F IS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY AFTN CU FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND (EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION). SO...GOING DRY FCST LOOKS RIGHT ON...WITH HIGHS INTO MID/UPR 70S SUN RISING TO LOWER 80S MON (INLAND OF COURSE). .MQT...NONE. JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 130 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 FORECAST CONCERNS: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES. SYNOPSIS... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT STALLED ALONG THE BOSTON MTS. A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING IS SMALL DUE TO LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS THAT MOVED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS OF 1 AM...ALL STATIONS THAT REPORTED WERE VFR. DISCUSSION... I HESITATE TO COMPLETELY DISSOLVE FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BUT DON'T BELIEVE IT WILL BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE HAVE TRIMMED BACK TO PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC HOLDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE BOSTON MTS...OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF A FORT SMITH TO JONESBORO LINE BY THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/AVN SLOWLY MOVE THIS BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SOUTHWARD...AND CONTINUES THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...AS CAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF ANY BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AT ANY ONE POINT OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. EXTENDED... VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE FORECASTED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ERRATIC...WHICH MAKES FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME CONTINUITY REMAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY KICK OUT THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THINGS QUICKER IN THE LONGER TERM. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. IF RIGHT...THE WET PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO A DRIER ONE AND ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER/HUMID WEATHER TO FILTER INTO THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AVIATION... NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS FORECASTED FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. FINAL GRIDS WILL BE SENT BY 230 AM. .SGF... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ JLT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 352 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 05Z RUC SHOWS 25H UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH 50 KT SPEED MAX ON THE WEST SIDE APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP HEIGHTS RISE OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TODAY. MODELS DEPICTION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM FRIDAY EVENING MCS. DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE SHOULD EXTEND ABOVE 8H LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER AND EVEN WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AIRMASS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH 30 POPS TODAY BUT WILL NOT RAISE. PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING MAY LIMIT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST. APPEARS MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGE/HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO IDENTIFY AND TIME SHORTWAVES THAT WILL SPARK CONVECTION. FCSTID = 13 AMARILLO 82 58 80 61 / 30 30 20 20 BEAVER 83 63 84 62 / 30 30 20 20 BOISE CITY 77 56 81 58 / 30 30 20 20 BORGER 82 58 84 61 / 30 30 20 20 BOYS RANCH 80 57 83 60 / 30 30 20 20 CANYON 82 56 82 59 / 30 30 20 20 CLARENDON 83 61 81 63 / 30 30 20 20 DALHART 79 56 81 58 / 30 30 20 20 GUYMON 82 58 83 60 / 30 30 20 20 HEREFORD 82 56 82 59 / 30 30 20 20 LIPSCOMB 84 62 85 62 / 30 30 20 20 PAMPA 83 60 81 62 / 30 30 20 20 SHAMROCK 84 62 85 62 / 30 30 20 20 WELLINGTON 84 63 85 62 / 30 30 20 20 .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 916 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 MORNING UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING ZONES TO ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL ADD THE REMAINDER OF WRN MD/ERN WV PANHANDLE AND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. SUNNY START THIS MORNING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS RATHER QUICKLY. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS TYPICAL WET MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND VERY MOIST NEAR THE SFC. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AMS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG. BOTH MESOETA/RUC HIT THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS VERY HARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TOWARD EVENING. WILL ADD DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE ZONES. FFA/EOL/ZFP OUT ASAP. RADAR IS DOWN ETS NOTIFIED AND HOPE TO HAVE RADAR BACK BY NOON. ROSA .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... GOING TO HAVE TO START PHONING IN THE FORECAST FROM HOME...THIS IS GETTING RATHER MONOTONOUS. ANOTHER HUMID...STICKY...THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING KIND OF DAY. WITH PRECIP H2O AMOUNTS AGAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND DWPTS STAYING AROUND 70 DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY THERE WILL NOT BE MORE FLOOD WARNINGS TODAY. FOR THAT REASON WILL COME OUT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL AGAIN LEAVE OUT LOWR S MD AND THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA SINCE THE COASTL PLAIN SE OF THE FALL LINE IS MUCH HARDER TO FLOOD. THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT SW VA WHICH HAS HAD LESS RAIN...AND ALLGNY CO MD AND THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR COORD PURPOSES. DAYSHIFT CAN ADD ONTO THIS AREA IF NEC LATER TODAY. FLOW DOES SEEM TO TURN A BIT FROM WEAK SW TO WEAK W TODAY SO HOPEFULLY THAT CAN LIMIT TSRA ACTVTY SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE POPS AS HIGH LIKLY TODAY INSTD OF THE CATGRCL THAT WE HAD YESTRDY. SPC CAME OUT WITH ANOTHER SLGHT RISK DAY FOR US TODAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH CHG FROM THE PAST FEW. INSTAB AGAIN PREVALENT WITH LIS AROUND -2 TO -4. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HELCTY. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE PRIMRLY DMG WINDS AND POSBLY SOME HAIL. COLD FRONT WILL EBB ACROSS THE AREA OVERNGHT WITH WINDS GOING FROM WEAK WSW TO NW AND EVNTLLY N BY EARLY SUN MORN. WENT WITH HIGHS A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTRDY WITH HIGHS GENRLLY IN THE MID 80S. STRONG .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HUDSON BAY...WITH SHEARING SHORTWAVES LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL SHEAR AWAY SOME ENERGY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE. THIS STRONGER WAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND KICK OUT THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP THE STALLED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DONT BUY THE MODELS BRINGING IN STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. MODEL UPPER AIR PATTERNS SHOW A BROAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH DOMINATING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ETA/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN ALSO AGREE THAT REMNANTS OF SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WORKS SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCES TROUGH. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND MAY EVEN RETURN NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH EACH MODEL...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO FORECAST SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW SINCE I THINK THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY. NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AREA FROM NORTHWEST THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOESNT LOOK LIKE A PATTERN CHANGER. INSTEAD...GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN CANADA...WHICH SHEARS THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST...STALLING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ROGOWSKI .LWX... DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001. MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES MDZ003>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES VAZ026>031...VAZ038>042...VAZ050>054. WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ051>053. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1111 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 UPDATE... JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/POP/SKY GRIDS AND A ZFP MORNING PERIOD CLEANUP IS TRIGGERING THIS UPDATE. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK FRONT STILL JUST TO OUR WEST AND OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. PARAMETERS PLUCKED OFF OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF CNY CAPPED AT ABOUT 800-700 MB WITH NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR HEATING EXPECTED TO BREAK IT WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. OVER NE PA SFC BASED HEATING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THIS REGION THE MOST UNSTABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPLY AS THE WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO BE OVER NE PA MID-LATE AFTN. AS CTP NOTED...PIT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS AND WIND PROFILES FVRBL FOR TRAINING CELLS. RUC MBE VECTOR PROGS AT AVP ARE A LTL FASTER THIS AFTERNOON THAN LAST NIGHT. WE DID HAVE MESO-BETA SCALE LOW TOPPED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING LAST EVENING...SO POTENTIAL IS STILL POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT WITH EACH LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP. PREV FCST HANDLED OVERALL TSRA FCST WELL WITH TARGET AREA FROM THE WY VALLEY OVER TO MSV. ELSEWHERE WILL STILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHCS FOR A SHOWER AS WK UPR TROF MOVES ACROSS NRN NY AND NEW ENG LATER TODAY. BREWSTER EARLY AM DISCUSSION... SHRT WAVE ALOFT PASSING E AND TAKING SCTRD RW/TRW WITH IT. THIS ACVTY SHUD BE GONE B4 DAWN AND VERY ISLD LIGHT RW WORKS INTO THE CWA BY MID MORNING. REGION REMAINS UNDER QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TODAY. SO WITH MAX HEATING THERE WILL SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTRN. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME CAPPING WHICH IN NY SHUD PUT A LID ON DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING JUST CHC FOR RW- IN NY...DOWN IN PA WHERE DWPTS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...PARCELS MAY BE ABLE TO LOCALLY BREAK THRU CAP WITH SUNSHINE ESP ON THE POCONOS AND THEREFORE WILL HV CHC FOR RW- AND AN ISLD TRW-. FOR TONIGHT...MAIN PV LOBE ALOFT SWINGS BY ACRS NY AND SUPPORTS SOME MID-LVL LIFTG. ETA SUGGESTS SOME CHC FOR SOME RW-...MAYBE A HOLD OVER FROM THE AFTRN ACVTY. GFS IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS SHARP AS THE ETA WITH THE VORT LOBE. IN ANY EVENT...IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHC OR AN ISLD RW- IN NY CLSR TO THE LIFTG WITH THE UPR WAVE. I WILL KEEP NE PA MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE HOLDOVER RW- PAST 0Z. IT IS THIS MAIN UPR FEATURE THAT PASSES THRU THIS EVE THAT WILL ALLOW A STRG RDG ALOFT TO BUILD S AND SUPPRESS THIS ACTIVE FRNTL BNDRY TO THE S OF NY/N PA BY TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AND ALSO FOR MONDAY. ISC GRIDS AVBL SOON. THANKS TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR THE EXCELLENT CHAT COORDINATION. THANKS BUF FOR THE CALL. .BGM...NONE. NICOSIA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1125 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 LATEST 88D IMAGERY INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING TO LIGHTEN ACROSS ILN FA. ASSOCIATED FORCING FROM MID LVL S/W CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. SUGGESTIONS ARE FOR MID LVL FORCING TO BE REINFORCED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF OUR FA. BDRY LAYER FORCING HOWEVER...APPEARS VERY WEAK AT BEST IN THE VICINITY OF WK FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LATEST ETA AND RUC MODELS CONTINUING TO DROP THE FRONT SLOWLY S THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FEEL THAT THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...HOWEVER MAY ADJUST TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. .ILN...NONE. JTD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 WEAK UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK 925-850 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED IN MESOETA/RUC ACROSS MISSOURI RIVER COUNTIES BY 18Z. 12Z SOUNDING FROM KABR SHOWING COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS BUT THIS WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN ANY INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON. RUC/MESOETA SB CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF WEAK 850 HPA THETA E RIDGE. SO WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL JUST MENTION ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON CHANCE OF CONVECTION...BUT DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN THAT BETTER CHANCE DOES APPEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF EASTERN MONTANA DEFORMATION AXIS. LEFT TEMPERATURES AS IS WITH EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY NUDGING UP MAX T GRIDS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. .ABR...NONE MARSILI sd SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX ARIZONA 235 PM MST SAT JUN 14 2003 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER CALIFORNIA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY WARM...AND SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BY MID WEEK. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. .DISCUSSION... SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS JUST SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOWED A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURES OVER THE REGION...AND LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTED THAT THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALL THE WAY TO THE NM BORDER BY 00Z. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN TAKING A WEAK RIPPLE INLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO LEVEL OFF DURING NEXT TWO DAYS RATHER THAN BUILD GRADUALLY. WILL THUS TREND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE-WISE WE CAN EXPECT A SMALL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL DEW POINTS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA...AND WILL TREND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY UP EACH DAY. SHARP RH GRADIENT ALSO LIKELY EAST OF ZONE 24...FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE GLOBE-MIAMI AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SWEEPS INLAND...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CIFM CLOUDCOVER LATER IN THE WEEK. THICKNESSES ALSO WILL TREND DOWN FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR MID JUNE. SIPPLE .PSR...NONE. $$ az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 ...UPDATE... AREAS OF CONVECTION IN N CENTRL OK HAVE BEEN PERSISTING FOR SOME TIME NOW AND COULD VERY WELL PUSH A DECENT OUTFLOW BNDY INTO S CENTRL KS. RUC MODEL TRIES TO PICK UP ON THIS SCENARIO WHICH COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS S CENTRL KS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS STORM MOVEMENT IS NEARLY ZERO WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TNGHT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT POPS FOR NW CWA AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TNGHT WITH PREVIOUS FCST ON TRACK. SUN-MON WEAK UPPER WAVE FROM SATURDAY WOBBLES SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE HANGING OUT JUST TO THE N OF CWA ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY TRYING TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER CENTRL KS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES AT THE MOMENT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MON AND SHOULD KEEP US DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 80S. TUES NO CHANGES MADE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS GOING. EXTENDED: WED-SAT MED RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WED/THUR TIME FRAME...WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WEST COAST WED AND THEN SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES COME THUR. WOULD EXPECT A FEW SHORT WAVES TO MIGRATE THRU THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES ALONG WITH AMPLE MSTR STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A FEW WAVES SLIDING ALONG AND AT THE MOMENT THESE WAVES APPEAR TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO KEEP FCST DRY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HEADING INTO FRI IS WHEN GFS AND ECM BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR CONTINUITY. GFS FIZZLES OUT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WESTERLIES MOVING BACK NORTHWARD BUT ECM SOLUTION SHOWS TROUGH MAINTAINING AND SHIFTS IT EAST. WILL SIDE WITH ECM MODEL THINKING THAT GFS IS DROPPING THE TROUGH TOO SOON AND WOULD EXPECT NEXT GFS RUN TO REFLECT THIS. VERY DEEP MSTR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND COULD MOVE INTO CENTRL KS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ECM SOLUTION SHOWS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO WESTERN HALF OF CWA ON FRI. THE KEY WILL BE TIMING OF THIS WAVE SLOWING DOWN/SPEEDING UP. SO WILL INTRO POPS FOR FRI AND CONTINUE TO WATCH AS TIMING COULD BE MOVED AROUND BY LATER SHIFTS. COULD TOSS CHANCES OF RAIN IN FOR SAT TOO BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THE MOMENT AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT NEXT MODEL RUN HAS TO OFFER. IF THE MODELS KEEP THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION GOING WILL PROBABLY NEED TO PUT CHANCES OF RAIN IN FOR SAT AS WELL. FCSTID = 15/JAKUB ICT 63 85 63 86 / 5 5 0 0 HUT 62 84 62 86 / 20 10 10 0 EWK 63 84 62 86 / 20 10 10 0 EQA 63 85 63 86 / 10 10 10 0 WLD 63 85 64 86 / 20 10 10 0 RSL 61 83 61 86 / 20 10 10 0 GBD 61 84 62 87 / 20 10 10 0 SLN 62 84 62 86 / 5 0 0 0 MPR 63 84 62 86 / 20 10 10 0 CFV 64 84 64 85 / 10 0 10 0 CNU 64 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 K88 64 84 62 85 / 10 0 10 0 .ICT... KS...NONE. $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 326 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING FROM NR CVG-CHILLICOTHE ATTM. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE SOUTHSIDE. RUC SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL VORT SHIFTS FROM WESTERN KY TO ERN KY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. ETA AND AVN ARE SLOWER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN NGM IN PUSHING FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA. FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF FA BY 06Z. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PCPN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK OF THE SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS NORTH OF FRONT ISNT EXTREMELY STABLE...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF NORTH OF THE FRONT. VORT DROPS OUT OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO IL BY TUE MORNING....THEN EJECTS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING MID WEEK. DO RECEIVE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SYSTEM UNTIL MID WEEK...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAV MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK TO COOL...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. CLEMISILN OUT SHORTLY. .ILN...NONE. SITES oh COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO TRY TO RECOVER AFTER MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRI. MOISTURE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN TX AS SEEN IN THE DEWPOINT AND THETA-E FIELDS. HOWEVER...RWS ARE STARTING TO POP UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NE OF CORPUS CHRISTI BAY AS SE FLOW IS ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER ALONG THE COAST. WV ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS NE TX/OK W/ A STRONG S/WV MVG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NM AND WRN TX. MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THIS S/WV. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FEATURE MUCH STRONGER W/ HEIGHT MAINLY ABOVE H5. STILL COUNTING ON THIS FEATURE SPARKING CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SFC ROF ACROSS NE MX AND CEN TX LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING W/ ACTIVITY MVG TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT LOOKING PROMISING. GOING BY THE RUCS TIMING ON THE S/WV WOULD MEAN HIGHER POPS TONIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY SUN AS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL EVENT UNFOLDS. THIS IS OPPOSITE OF INDICATIONS BY MOS POPS...BUT THE MODELS AND MOS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD THUS FAR W/ THE PAST FEW DAYS EVENTS. SPC HAS THE NRN AREAS JUST BARELY INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY LOW LVL JET TONIGHT AND LOWER THETA-E VALUES THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESS. WILL JUST KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR NOW. UPR LVL LOW PRESSURE TROF AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ S/WVS CONTINUING TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF OVR THE REGION...WHILE OUTFLOWS AND WEAK SFC TROFS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ANY CONVECTION IN ONE PERIOD WILL HAMPER CONVECTION IN THE NEXT AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. SO ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL HAMPER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION ON SUN. IF THE TSTMS DO NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN SUN WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH SUN NIGHT REALIZING THESE WILL NEED TO BE MASSAGED W/ TIME AS THINGS UNFOLD. MARINE...WEAK TROFFING TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE OVR THE NRN GOMEX WILL PROMOTE JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE INTERRUPTED BY OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH. MAY NEED A CAUTION FOR SEAS TONIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ NO FLAGS EXPECTED. LONG-TERM (MON THROUGH SAT)...FORECAST STILL REMAINS TRICKY AS GFS/MRF/AVN STILL WANT TO KEEP MOISTURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AROUND DESPITE FORECAST OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. GIVEN LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME...APPARENT DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER IN AS PER SATELLITE...AND LACK OF 850MB JET FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT ONCE ALL OF THE APPARENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST. ONLY BOUNDARY IS THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH GFS TRIES TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS...IF ANYTHING MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST (DESPITE PWAT FORECASTS 1.5 INCHES OR LESS). WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION MENTIONED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO FIT AREAL FORECASTS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP BEYOND THAT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING THE LONG TERM AND ACTUAL WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW TAKES HOLD AND THE MOISTURE RETURNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF A GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD PROGRESSES. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED ON THE MARINE SIDE OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF CONVECTION. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: CRP BE 075/089 073/089 073 444423 VCT BE 072/090 070/089 072 544423 LRD BE 075/095 074/097 075 544222 .CRP...NONE. 88/MJG...SHORT-TERM 86/GW...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE AXES/WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LONGER TERM CONCERN IS WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES...ALLOWING WEAKNESSES IN THE VORTICITY FIELD TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. DATA ANALYSIS THROUGH 19Z SHOWING AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE /LAPS/MSAS THETA-E AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS/ EXTENDING FROM KGRB-KDBQ-KOTM. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB MOISTURE AXIS NOTED BY THE RUC/ETA MODELS...AND IS ALSO WHERE RESIDUAL TROUGHING FROM THE DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS. THUS...THE EFFECTS FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS...AND THE SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VORTICITY FIELD NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. GFS/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TONIGHT...THE ETA/RUC SUGGEST THAT A BOUNDARY MOVES WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS IN EFFECT DRIES OUT THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES WEST...THE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR THE RUC TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NOTE THIS TO THE RELIEF THIS EVENING SO IT CAN BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE AXIS...BOTH SURFACE AND AT 850 MB MOVES TO A POSITION THAT EXTENDS FROM KMCW-KRST-KMDZ SUNDAY MORNING. SBCAPES AGAIN REACH INTO THE 2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOTED BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING INTO A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WOULD SUGGEST THE SAME SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THIS AXIS. THEREFORE...INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE FORECAST. THE SAME CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THERE BEING NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS THETA-E AXIS REMAINS...WILL CONTINUE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE DATABASE TO PROVIDE A FOUNDATION FOR INTRODUCING CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD IT BE NECESSARY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS A DEEP MIXING LAYER...WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...USED AN EXTRAPOLATED 850 TEMPERATURE AND CAME UP WITH HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...REFLECTING THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCE EAST TO WEST. DITTO FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN A FEW DEGREE RISE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING SHOULD AID THE TEMPERATURE RISES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MADE THIS THE WARMEST DAY. THE GFS IS NOW SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHER WAVES DOWNSTREAM AND RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FASTER. ADJUSTED THE TIMING UPWARD BY 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. .LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR S SECTIONS OF FORECAST ARE WEST OF JANSEVILLE TO DARLINGTON. BEST STORM WEST OF JANESVILLE PRBABLY ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE OF DEEPER LAKE INFLUENCE TO THE EAST. ALSO WEAK SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 10 THSD FT WHERE MESOETA HAS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RUC SOUNDINGS HAVE MUCH WEAKER CAP...WHICH IS ALOWING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO RELATIVELY LOW...SO SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. AS EASTERLY FLOW AND LAKE AIR BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BEOME DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HOWEVER NEW 12Z GFS CONTINUES WEAKENING TREND...WITH MON SHRT WV CUTTING OFF OVER SRN IL...AND NRN BRANCH OF UPR JET WELL NORTH IN SRN CANADA. WITH ONLY A WEAK SFC TROF CROSSING THE STATE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS MAINLY WED/WED NIGHT. THEN NEXT SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. .MKX...NONE. $$ HENTZ wi