FXUS61 KPHI 061935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2003

DISC: THE BEST THAT YOU CAN WISH FOR TOMORROW IS THAT THINGS GO 
KER-PLUIE! GET CARRIED AWAY LOOKING AT THE LEGENDS FROM THE OTHER
MODELS...IN THIS CASE THE (GEM). SKIES OVER THE CFA ARE RELATIVELY 
CLEAR AND THE DRIER COLDER AIR WEDGING SE FROM THE COLD HIGH CENTER. 
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS LAYING GROUNDWORK FOR A MESSY VERY
RAW DAY ON MON. THIS EVENT SIM TO MANY DURING THE WINTER WITH 
OVERRUNNING RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE PCPN. A REAL PROB FOR MON IS
THE TIMING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE CASE WHERE SNOW WILL BE ON THE 
GROUND WHEN YOU GET UP SO SOME HARD DECISIONS TO BE MADE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON AS FAR AS COMMUTING. 

AND LIKE MANY EVENTS THIS WINTER OUR CWA LOOKING AT A WINTER WEATHER 
EVENT...POTNL SMALL STREAM FLOODING EVENT AND COASTAL FLOODING WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS. 

WATER EQUIVALENTS AROUND AN INCH OVER A WIDE AREA. WITH THE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S DURING THE DAY SOME SECTIONS LIKELY TO 
HAVE A HEAVY WET SNOW...OTHERS A "PROLONGED" PERIOD OF SLEET AS WARM
AIR WORKS IT'S WAY INTO THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE MIDPOINT OF OUR CFA
AND THEN ALL RAIN SOUTH. EVEN WITH RAIN/SNOW RATIO OF 8-1 THERE W/B 
GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN NRN AREAS. ABE APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW 
WHILE RDG A LITTLE SNOW AND MOSTLY SLEET OVER TO TTN. THE PROB 
HOWEVER W/B THE AMOUNT OF IP WE GET. THE USUAL SMALL STREAMS IN DEL/SE
PA MAY SHOW SOME APPRECIABLE RISES. DISC FROM MARFC THIS AM LOOKING FOR
QPF RANGES ACROSS OUR BASINS ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES.

WIND...STIFF ONSHORE WINDS MON PROMPTING GALES FOR THE OCEAN WHICH IS
GOING TO GET THE TIDES UP TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WE HAPPEN TO BE BBETWEEN
NEW/FULL MOON AND NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN MINOR AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK CULMINATING IN A 
POTNL COASTAL LOW ON LATE THU/FRI. 

TEMPS...VERY RAW FOR MONDAY WHERE IT WILL BE RAINING AND SLEETING
WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.   

CONCERNS...ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS W/B FOR THOSE CONCERNED WITH 
SCHOOLS. THIS IS AN EVENT WHERE DECISIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE 
AROUND NOONTIME WHETHER TO LEAVE EARLY OR NOT. 

THANKS TO CTP/OKC FOR COLLABORATION ON PUBLIC SIDE AND AKQ/OKC MARINE
DESKS.

I'M JUST REMINDED BY MY COLLEAUGE(HW)THAT TODAY IS THE ANNIVERSARY 
OF THE BLIZZARD OF '82...NOT 1882 BUT 1982. CERTAINLY A RECORD SNOW 
AND THE FIRST TIME SINCE EWR AIRPORT OBS(1929)EVER PLUNGED INTO THE  
TEENS IN APRIL ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. QUITE A FEAT BACK THEN 
TO ISSUE BLZD WARNINGS BY NYC OFFICE BEFORE FIRST FLAKE FELL! PHL 
SNOWFALL WAS 3.5 INCHES.

MPO   26  29  23  37 /  30 100 100  70
ABE   29  32  26  40 /  40 100 100  60
RDG   29  32  26  40 /  40 100 100  60
PHL   32  36  30  45 /  30 100 100  30
12N   26  29  23  37 /  30 100 100  70
SMQ   31  34  28  41 /  30 100 100  60
TTN   31  35  29  44 /  30 100 100  40
MIV   33  37  35  44 /  30 100 100  30
ACY   38  41  39  44 /  30 100 100  30
ILG   34  36  33  45 /  40 100 100  30
DOV   36  39  36  44 /  40 100 100  30
GED   36  39  36  44 /  40 100 100  30
ESN   36  39  36  44 /  40 100 100  30

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING MON INTO MON EVENING FOR ZONES         
     NJZ001-007-008-009-010.
     WINTER WX ADVISORY NJZ012-013-015-017-018-019
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING MON INTO MON EVENING FOR ZONES
     PAZ054-055-060>062.
     WINTER WX ADVISORY PAZ067>071.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT FROM LITTLE EGG
         INLET AND NORTH(ANZ450-451) AND SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE INCLUDING
         THE ENTIRE DEL BAY(ANZ452>455-DEZ430-431)