Providing humanitarian assistance
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>> 50 years of development gains >> Promoting democratic governance >> Driving economic growth >> Improving people's health >> Mitigating and managing conflict >> Providing humanitarian assistance >> The full measure of U.S. development assistance-official and private >> Notes >> Background papers >> ReferencesLooking ahead
As late as the mid-1980s, only a few pessimists not well-received were discussing the potential for religious nationalism, ethnic conflict, and intrastate wars that would, with the demise of the Soviet Union, profoundly affect the world for humanitarian assistance. But we have to look ahead as best we can. Consider the following:In sum, the need for humanitarian assistance shows no signs of abating, and the new dimensions of disasters will create new exigencies. If anything, the trends indicate an even greater and more complex role for humanitarian assistance in the coming decades. The United States, the one power with truly global reach, has a critical role in addressing current challenges and shaping future trends in disaster assistance.
- Economic migrants will continue to swell urban ghettos, many ending up in poor quality housing without water or sanitation and subject to criminal gangs. Flood-induced cholera outbreaks will become more common in urban slums and require emergency responses.
- More people will push into marginal lands where human activity has led to deforestation, water shortages, and desertification. Population pressures will continue to force migration to these areas.
- Infectious diseases such as AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria are emergencies in and of themselves, but they are also deepening the impact of natural disasters and conflict-related crises. HIV/AIDS among drought-affected populations, for example, is leaving many more susceptible to health problems associated with food shortages (and infectious disease) than they might otherwise be. Related illnesses (and death) deeply affect food security and will leave many families less able to fully recover from natural or conflict-related disasters.
- Technological accidents and disasters are projected to increase in both number and severity because of spreading industrialization, aging plants and technologies, declining resources for safety and monitoring, and rising vulnerability caused by ill-informed development decisions (and nondecisions). The consequences of such accidents will not be sensitive to borders and entire regions could well be affected.
- A domino or compound effect is also possible whereby a natural disaster triggers a technological event in an urban area, creating unforeseen and uncontrolled population movements and generating conditions for conflict.
- The challenges of meeting needs in current intrastate conflicts remain. While expert opinions vary on whether new intrastate conflicts will erupt, there can be little doubt that some are already intractable and lethal, generating ever-larger numbers of civilian casualties and consequences that are increasingly global in nature.
- The war on terrorism may generate additional intra-state wars or non-military strategies (such as sanctions) that will create new humanitarian assistance requirements.
- Chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosive disasters loom larger than ever in the post-September 11 world, with still unforeseen implications for humanitarian assistance.
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Last Updated on: January 07, 2003 |