000
FXUS04 KWBC 101835
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 11/0000 UTC THRU MAR 12/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

UPR LAKES/UPR MS VALLEY...

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING
LOW ACRS THE UPR LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WL BE MOVG FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WED FROM NERN WI...ACRS THE U.P. OF MI AND
INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC DURG THE DAY WED.  THE WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD PCPN AREA WL CONT TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE UPR LAKES INTO EARLY WED MORNING.  PCPN
INTENSITIES MAY BE ENHANCED EARLY DAY 1 BY LOW LEVEL
FLOW..INITIALLY ELY TO NELY...BACKING TO A MORE NLY TO NWLY
DIRECTION BY WED MORNING...OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.   THE BULK OF THE
PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM DURG DAY 1 WL BE ACRS ONTARIO AND QB..WITH
THE SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE PCPN SHIELD PRODUCING .25-.50"+ LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS FROM NERN MN...FAR NRN WI AND INTO THE U.P. OF MI.

OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...

THE NAM AND GFS CONT TO ADVERTISE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX PUSHING
NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  INITIALLY THIS
WL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEWD MOVG WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
UPR MS VALLEY/UPR LAKES LOW.  BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THE
EMPHASIS FOR PCPN WL BE ALONG THE EWD MOVG COLD FRONT WHERE BNDRY
LAYER CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL DEFINED.  MODEL QPFS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN AXIS OF .25-50"+ ACRS THESE
AREAS...WITH DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THESE
AMTS.

SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO ERN
CANADA...THE MID TO UPR LEVEL FLOW WL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW FROM
NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.  SHRTWV ENERGY IN
THIS SWLY FLOW WL OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SINKING SWD EARLY
THIS PERIOD ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF OVERRUNNING PCPN ACRS A
LARGE PORTION OF CNTRL TO NERN TX...NEWD INTO NRN LA AND AR.
THERE ARE A LOT DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE QPF DEPICTIONS AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE...BUT GENERAL AGRMNT ON MDT TO HVY
RAINFALL THREAT.  THE DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN/ECMWF
FOR DAY 1...WITH AN AXIS OF .50-1"+ PCPN AMTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 514941 537843 543787 536729 516675 510658 506652 504650
      501643 498635 493620 487612 485608 482607 478604 475603
      468604 462605 455607 441616 431630 427637 421645 415654
      410660 400675 388691 380703 377711 380718 385721 392724
      395725 397728 401737 402742 402746 400755 395770 392779
      389785 385792 380799 369813 359824 351838 345850 337863
      330874 328881 327884 323887 317890 310897 306903 303910
      298924 292939 287950 280963 275973 270986 268993 267998
      269004 272013 272017 270021 268029 265033 264037 265043
      266048 268050 279056 284059 288062 293060 299056 305054
      311055 318058 323057 327055 335051 346043 352037 352030
      346013 344008 343996 344988 348982 352974 354967 355964
      357960 362952 380930 399905 418880 421877 425874 431870
      434870 437875 439881 433899 431908 433920 432932 431941
      439959 446974 449980 450982 458985 472991 479994 483994
      489992 491992 495988 499981 505962 508952 514941
 0.01 464102 464095 462089 460085 459076 457064 456060 453056
      448056 446060 444064 441072 444079 446080 445084 441088
      439092 437096 439108 446117 452116 455113 463106 464102
 0.25 534817 538768 513712 499695 483670 479660 474651 468643
      462638 458635 452635 448637 444641 432655 428665 426672
      424688 424696 422703 416711 415717 412735 411741 411750
      413768 412785 412794 409803 407809 402817 394828 385838
      375850 367861 360873 354884 347895 342900 334905 329910
      325916 318926 312940 308952 302965 290985 287992 286003
      285009 287018 289025 292029 298032 302032 307032 312028
      316023 323012 326005 329000 332994 335987 340974 347961
      354950 360936 366923 369918 373912 384902 396890 404879
      412867 419856 428841 435828 440823 446816 465786 469779
      473776 479779 483785 483794 482803 479812 476821 471835
      468844 467849 466853 464862 463871 461890 460901 461911
      465919 469923 481928 486928 490926 496920 501912 503907
      509889 516873 520865 524854 528838 531827 534817
 0.50 530795 530790 528785 524778 518778 512782 504793 498805
      492817 486830 481839 478845 477853 476859 474865 470878
      469884 469893 471903 473906 476907 480906 484904 492895
      499884 506872 512862 517848 521836 525823 527807 530795
 0.50 463670 460667 456666 447667 443669 437672 433678 431684
      433695 431700 431709 430713 428716 424722 423728 421732
      420737 420749 421761 421772 419785 417798 415806 411814
      401833 391850 386856 379864 370869 364877 354893 348902
      343907 332922 326927 319934 315942 312951 309959 304967
      296980 291990 290999 292008 296018 299021 303021 306020
      310017 319002 325995 329988 337970 346955 354938 362919
      367912 372904 378897 384890 395876 407859 429825 441808
      447799 453789 456778 458767 461743 460736 458729 455720
      451716 447716 444714 442710 446704 449700 452695 454686
      462678 463670
 1.00 448764 447756 443750 441746 437743 433741 430742 429746
      431753 434760 435767 434773 432776 428786 426798 425803
      426807 429808 436802 442790 445780 448769 448764
 1.00 376883 368881 365884 356896 343919 340925 336930 331934
      326940 322946 319951 317957 313964 299985 296991 295999
      298005 301007 304004 313995 320986 325979 328975 335962
      341949 347937 354925 360913 373887 376883

$$