FXUS63 KIND 110813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
310 AM EST THU NOV 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...SPLIT UPPR FLOW XPCTD ACRS THE COUNTRY DURG THE SHORT 
RANGE PD. SRN STREAM SYS CURRENTLY OVR THE SRN PLAINS WL MOV EWD AND 
DAMPEN OUT OVR THE OH/TN VLYS ON FRI UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW. NRN 
STREAM WL EVENTUALLY PUSH A LRG COOL SFC HI INTO THE AREA BY THE END 
OF THE WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABV DETAILS. FCST 
FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE SRN STREAM SYS.

IN THE NR TERM...SOME PCPN ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR 
OVR THE SWRN ZONES...BUT SO FAR NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. APPEARS MAIN 
LIFT FM THE SRN PLAINS SYS WL MOV INTO THE AREA DURG THE MID MORN 
HRS...SO XPCT PCPN TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY THEN. WL CONT 
WITH HI POPS TODAY.

IN THE LTR PDS...PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH AND SHFT SWD WITH TIME AS SRN 
SYS DAMPENS OUT AND NWLY UPPR FLOW IN THE NRN STREAM TAKES OVER. WL 
GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SRN/SERN ZONES FOR MAINLY DURG THE EVEN 
HRS...TAPERING TO CHC POPS FARTHER NW. COULD PROBABLY GET AWAY WITH 
A DRY FCST IN THE FAR NW TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS DEEP LIFT/MOISTURE 
SHOULD BE WELL REMOVED FM THOSE AREAS. OTRW...SKIES SHOULD CLR OUT 
FM N TO S ON FRI WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN.

TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY TDY WITH MORN FROPA AND PCPN MOVG IN. APPEARS 
FROPA SHOULD BE DURG THE MID/LT MORN...SO WL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE DEG 
RISE LTR THIS MORN...WITH TEMPS FALLING OFF INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS 
BY LT AFTERNOON. LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST NGM MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT 
IS ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO TOO WARM IN THE SRN ZONES. REMAINDER OF PDS 
LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

JAS