FXUS04 KWBC 201854 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 251 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUL 22/0000 UTC THRU JUL 23/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR CNTL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GT LAKES... SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROF AS IT MOVES ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO THE GT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. MODELS SHOW A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER QPF WITH THE GFS DISPLAYING ITS USUAL FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PD WITH POST FRONTAL BLOW UP ACRS NW NEBRASKA. GENLY WENT WITH THE ETA MASS FIELD GIVEN ITS LACK OFF FEEDBACK AND GENL BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. TIED HEAVIER RAINS TOWARD MEAN LAYER RH AXIS FROM STRETCHING FROM SW KS NEWD ACRS IA THEN MORE EWD THRU NRN IL/SRN WI/NRN INDIANA. K INDICES ARE FCST TO INCREASE INTO THE 39 TO 43 RANGE BY LATE WED FROM NRN KS INTO SRN IA AND NRN IL WHICH SHOULD HELP TO FUEL SOME LOCALLY HEAVY CNVTV RAINS. ONE CONCERN IS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SO TENDED TO SHIFT QPF NORTH OF THE HIEST K VALUES. SW U.S.. FLATTENING OF UPR HI OVER AZ SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK OF ORGANIZED MONSOON ACTIVITY..KEEPING MAIN THREAT TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS..ACRS CO/NM AND W TX. GFS APPEARS TO BE DROPPING MID LEVEL MCV OVER ERN NM TOO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH BASED ON RECENT SATL IMAGERY. IN ANY EVENT..SOME DRYING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP MEAN AREAL AMOUNTS AROUND .25 INCH OR SO MAINLY OVER SE NM AND WRN TX. GULF COAST... DVLPG MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WWD INCREASING THE RISK OF SHWRS/TSTM INTO COASTAL AREAS OF LA AND THE UPR TX COAST. WENT TOWARD SLIGHTLY HEAVIER GFS HERE. FL... UPR TROF PUSHING SLOWLY EWD OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD FORCE FRONTAL BNDRY INTO EXTREME SRN FL THIS PD..WHERE GREATEST THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PREVAIL. ETA LOOKED A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING ACTIVITY OFFSHORE..SO WENT CLOSER TO GFS. NAME AREA... MODELS ALL SHOW CONTINUED DRYING ACRS ERN SECTIONS OF MEX WEST OF DVLPG MID LEVEL LOW ALONG THE TX COAST...WHILE MAINTAINING HI PWS ALONG THE WEST COAST INCLUDING THE SMO. PATRN SUGGESTS POTNL FOR SOME MCS ACTIVITY DVLPG ALONG THE WRN MTNS WHICH COULD BUILD WWD TOWARD THE COAST BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR IS LOW. DAY 2... MIDWEST/GRTLKS/CNTRL APLCHNS... A MDL TIMING DIF CONTS THIS PD...W/THE ETA MUCH FASTER AND THE GFS SLOWER W/A VORT MAX MOVG UP THE EAST SIDE OF A DIGGING UPR TROF. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER GFS...AND BOTH MDLS ARE TRENDING SLOWER W/THE MAIN TROF MIGRATING THRU THE NRN PLAINS/CNTRL CAN...SO WENT W/THE SLOWER GFS SOLN. THIS REGION WL BE NR THE SPLIT IN THE H2 PATTERN...THUS DIFFLUENCE EXISTS ALOFT. BOTH MDLS PROG PWS AOA 2 INCHES W/30 KTS OF INFLOW...WHICH BEGS FOR HEAVIER PCPN THAN THE PALTRY GFS AMTS...CLOSER TO THE ETA BUT W/THE GFS TIMING. LOCAL AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE PSBL ACRS NRN IN...NRN OH...AND SRN MI. CNTRL PLAINS... PCPN WL FALL BOTH ALG A FNT EXPECTED TO SAG THRU THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...ALG THE LEE TROF...AND NR AN H8 BNDRY EXPECTED TO DVLP IN SERN CO. DURING THE DAY...ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM NR THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE. AT NIGHT...PCPN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WL PROPAGATE SEWD... MAINLY DUE TO AN OUTFLOW/H8 BNDRY DROPPING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH THRU THE REGION. SOME ACTIVITY WL ALSO MOVE EWD... RESULTING IN A NET SE MOTION. LOCAL AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE PSBL HERE. NAME/MEX... PCPN WL FALL IN ABUNDANCE ACRS WRN MEXICO AS A CLOSED CYC ROLLS WWD THRU THE COUNTRY...LEAVING TIERS 1 AND 6 IN AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT H2 DIFFLUENCE THRU MUCH OF THE PD. LOWERED GFS AMTS SOMEWHAT TO COMPENSATE FOR GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK. LOCAL AMTS OF 4-5 INCHES WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE HERE. SULLIVAN/ROTH GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 22/00Z 0.01 224063 232066 237069 241073 253084 262093 265096 270099 276103 280108 284112 290112 296110 304111 311111 313110 315106 316099 320098 322093 320091 315088 313082 313078 316075 321072 323073 327077 330083 332090 335095 341105 351121 355122 359120 356113 349103 346098 344091 341081 341075 347074 355075 360075 365077 377079 383080 390082 401090 409096 413099 419102 424100 427096 427080 426068 421064 420060 425059 432060 436063 441068 443072 442078 442091 441096 439099 432108 419111 411111 404112 398114 393117 390119 389123 387130 387138 388144 390149 394154 399156 403155 412153 421143 427132 428128 431125 436121 447118 458121 476146 481153 485160 491173 497186 501200 509210 519217 523216 528213 533207 534203 533190 532181 530171 525165 507145 503141 498136 489130 472110 464095 461090 460086 462078 464068 467060 473046 478033 476024 472021 468016 463013 451010 444008 438008 436005 433997 430981 428970 426963 426957 429958 432963 437967 441966 445963 451958 456951 462946 468943 470943 472946 476955 477963 481983 483990 486993 492991 501986 505983 508980 510977 516964 518953 520944 520938 521933 521925 519915 517908 517901 519891 519885 518879 512870 504862 498857 496853 498849 506834 505829 503827 498820 490810 487808 484808 478807 466807 443807 438806 434804 433795 432788 431782 419777 410774 405772 399771 394775 391773 391768 388761 383756 376755 368757 362760 358762 354761 349758 345758 341762 336774 335779 336783 338786 339789 339794 338799 339802 342802 346798 351792 355790 360784 364782 371777 378774 388777 389780 387786 378798 365813 361820 363824 376823 384822 387826 389831 390837 389843 387849 387855 387860 387869 390875 398884 403907 403912 401920 399925 397933 394943 390953 384965 377976 364991 346013 341014 334015 326016 320019 314020 309023 298027 290027 285029 276035 269039 262045 255045 251043 246040 242037 235024 229011 0.01 481674 479665 475658 468650 463649 457650 452654 450657 448663 447671 445684 442696 438708 433719 430723 425727 420732 417738 415744 416749 418754 423758 428759 433760 441755 447745 453734 456723 459716 463709 471702 476696 480689 481684 481674 481674 0.01 286794 279791 272790 259786 252787 246792 243799 241806 240814 240822 249837 254842 260844 267844 267836 266827 274824 280819 284811 284802 286796 286794 0.01 309938 309928 308919 306909 302901 298897 294898 292900 289905 287911 285927 284934 283940 283945 282948 279954 275959 274967 275971 278975 283977 291974 295970 303959 307948 309938 0.25 226057 237062 248067 258075 266082 276090 285100 290102 294102 297100 301095 304088 302079 299071 300067 305062 316057 323055 327050 329042 332037 334032 332028 327028 315036 301039 287042 277048 266055 260057 255057 250054 244049 236042 227034 0.25 490897 490885 486881 475880 472876 471870 468865 459860 453858 447859 446862 448867 452871 456874 460879 469887 467895 466899 464902 461906 461909 464908 470908 476911 481913 486912 488907 490899 490897 0.25 453922 452906 440902 436899 434894 434882 434878 434874 436869 436863 434854 427848 421839 417837 414836 406844 405849 404854 404861 405869 406882 407889 408898 410912 410926 409938 405950 403956 400961 394967 388975 383984 378995 373004 370011 371017 374018 379015 381013 390006 397001 404992 409981 409977 407970 407968 409961 415952 417948 419943 421931 424919 428922 431932 432939 434943 438947 440948 442946 445941 449933 453922 0.25 302930 303927 302923 302920 301917 301914 299911 298910 296911 295912 295916 294918 294919 294922 294925 295928 296931 297934 300936 302933 302932 302930 0.25 270801 266796 262795 259795 254797 251799 248803 247807 246810 246814 248816 252817 253817 257814 260814 264813 267809 268805 270801 0.50 427889 423878 419863 418860 416858 413858 411861 410867 411874 411886 412894 413901 415915 416928 418928 420923 423910 425906 425902 425893 427889 0.50 399989 399986 399982 399978 397975 396974 396975 394976 391979 388983 387987 386990 385991 384995 383995 384999 387999 390999 391998 392997 395994 396993 398991 399989 0.50 261808 261804 259803 257805 257806 257807 259808 261808 261808 0.50 301091 301088 299086 296082 291077 282073 275070 269064 261062 252059 245054 239049 233046 229045 227046 227049 231055 246063 253067 259072 275079 275085 280090 288097 291098 295097 301091 0.50 300056 300052 299052 296052 295053 294055 293056 294057 296057 299057 300056 0.50 282081 280078 277077 276078 277080 277081 280081 282081 1.00 296091 294089 291089 289090 289094 291094 293094 294094 296091 296091 24HR QP VT 22/12Z 0.01 222071 229073 233075 242081 251089 261098 271105 281110 293113 303119 309122 316123 321121 325116 326114 331113 336116 343130 348134 352135 356135 360131 363125 362119 359114 354110 351106 350101 351096 355096 357098 361097 363095 363091 361083 361079 362077 364075 367075 369079 371083 375090 380092 386094 390090 398087 402084 406077 411072 421064 425065 430068 433071 436071 437068 440060 438051 435042 432036 431027 433010 433999 432989 430978 427969 426957 425948 423938 423934 425931 427929 432928 437928 444931 451934 460938 473942 486943 493942 501940 507938 510933 510930 509924 508918 505912 501904 496898 495890 493877 491870 487862 483855 481845 478837 474829 470824 464818 458814 455807 453802 451798 447793 441787 437784 431781 424779 419777 414776 407777 400780 388781 381785 377788 369795 366799 362803 360809 357823 354830 358841 358855 360866 363871 369885 373894 375901 378921 379930 379936 379955 377975 377983 374989 371995 365001 357006 348015 343020 338023 329028 321030 315027 300024 284025 268029 259034 249033 242033 237029 229023 0.01 481674 479665 475658 468650 463649 457650 453654 450657 448663 447671 445684 442696 438708 433719 430723 425727 420732 417738 415744 416749 418754 423758 428759 433760 441755 447745 453734 456723 459716 463709 471702 476696 480689 481684 481674 481674 0.01 455147 455142 454139 448134 449131 454126 456120 455111 456101 451095 447091 442088 438088 436093 436098 435108 439115 441121 445127 442133 433140 434146 437152 443155 446156 450155 455147 0.01 419150 420146 419142 416139 410139 404139 399137 393137 390139 387145 387153 389157 391161 396164 402164 405162 409158 412155 415152 419150 0.01 415114 417107 417103 415099 412096 409095 406096 403101 400102 395104 392106 389109 386116 388122 391123 394122 397120 403117 408119 411120 414118 415114 0.01 356763 354761 351758 345758 344758 341764 339767 337771 335775 335782 339787 342789 346789 348786 350782 352777 354772 356767 356763 0.01 289812 289807 285803 281798 275793 273783 269781 263781 254784 248788 243795 241801 241809 241817 243826 246832 251839 256844 263845 267844 268843 269834 269824 271817 276815 280815 286817 289812 0.01 309938 309928 306919 300908 297905 294905 290910 289917 290926 290933 288939 281950 278955 276961 274968 275974 281977 289976 293970 299967 304963 305955 309942 309938 0.25 471904 471897 469892 463887 453880 442871 436865 432858 429852 429846 430842 433837 434828 433817 428809 424803 417799 413797 406796 398799 390803 386807 380813 376820 375827 376837 380848 387862 391869 395877 398883 401893 403904 404911 406914 410911 415911 423909 431908 438908 450911 457912 464912 470908 471904 0.25 422002 421989 418976 415964 411954 407947 405945 402945 399948 397952 395958 393968 391977 389987 383006 383013 384019 391025 398029 400032 401038 396044 390046 384046 379046 374044 369036 366035 363036 356041 347044 338046 328047 319050 314051 312054 316062 319062 324064 329064 334065 337067 342067 347066 352067 355068 360069 362066 364062 368060 378060 385056 397055 403055 406053 412048 417039 419034 418026 420016 422008 422004 422002 0.25 225054 232063 237069 253082 261087 272091 277093 283096 287098 293099 300099 305095 309092 312092 315095 319095 319091 316087 314081 311078 305075 299068 294056 291053 285051 281050 274050 264052 257052 252051 242045 228036 0.25 264800 261799 259799 258799 255800 253801 251802 250803 249806 248806 249809 250812 251813 254813 256813 259810 260808 261808 263805 263803 264800 264800 0.50 421826 418816 413809 410807 405806 398808 391813 386821 384829 384838 388847 391854 397865 400874 404886 408895 414900 422901 426899 430896 432892 432887 425865 421856 419850 418844 420835 421826 0.50 417006 418998 417991 416983 414975 410965 407961 403960 400963 398967 394979 392990 392001 393008 395012 398016 402019 409018 414015 416010 417006 0.50 366051 364049 361049 358050 355051 352053 350054 349056 348058 350058 352059 355060 358060 360058 361056 364054 366051 0.50 336058 338055 335053 332052 330052 327055 330058 333059 335058 336058 0.50 297091 297085 295082 291075 288069 283064 266061 253055 240048 234045 228046 228050 229053 234060 242069 248074 253078 260081 267084 276085 283087 290091 297091 1.00 423890 423886 421880 420875 416866 413862 410846 411830 407826 404821 399819 394822 392829 394838 400852 403860 405869 405876 406880 410889 414893 419894 423890 1.00 413995 412987 411984 409976 406973 402973 399976 398982 397986 398993 398998 402003 405006 410003 412999 413995 1.00 265072 264068 261065 257063 253060 250058 247057 242055 239054 238057 240060 242063 245067 248070 250072 255074 258076 263075 265072 1.50 419888 417884 416880 415877 414874 413874 410871 408874 407876 408879 409882 410883 412886 413888 414889 417890 419888 1.50 405988 404985 403984 402985 403989 404991 405988 1.50 256066 253065 251063 250062 248063 250065 251066 253066 256066 256066 $$