Appendix F.
Technical Information on Analysis Methods and Results
Part 1. Model Descriptions
Part 2. NFP eis Analytical Specification
Part 3. PNW Hydro System Operation
Part 4. PNW Resource Operation Results
Part 5. PNW Thermal Resource Operation Data Plant-by-Plant
Appendix F.
Part 1. Model Descriptions
SECTION 1: Integrated System for Analysis of Acquisitions (ISAAC)
SECTION 2: Accelerated California Market Estimator (ACME)
SECTION 3: System Analysis Model (SAM)
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SECTION 1
INTEGRATED SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS OF ACQUISITIONS
(ISAAC)
Model Description
The ISAAC model is a decision analysis model developed jointly by BPA, the
Northwest Power Planning Council (NWPPC), and others in the region to
analyze resource acquisition strategies and issues. The ISAAC model simulates
the acquisition of resources to meet load growth in the Pacific Northwest. It also
simulates the operation of the Pacific Northwest power system over a wide range
of uncertainties, including load growth, resource supply, streamflow conditions,
fuel prices, and aluminum markets.
The ISAAC model is an energy model that tuns on a monthly or seasonal basis
for twenty years or longer. The ISAAC model divides the Pacific Northwest into
three parties; Generating Public Utilities (GPU), Investor Owned Utilities (IOU),
and Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). The BC Hydro power system
operation, the California demand for energy and the Interties that connect these
regions are also modeled.
The ISAAC model has a detailed simulation of acquisition planning. In each
simulation, the ISAAC model options and acquires generating and conservation
resources to meet a planning load forecast and then dispatches the power
system to meet the actual load growth. Running many simulations over a wide
range of load growth, streamflows, and other uncertainties allows the model to
account for the value of many resource characteristics, such as; options,
construction lead times, unit size, and dispatchability.
The ISAAC model operates the hydro system as a one dam model. The
modeling of the thermal dispatch, California market, and Intertie policies is less
complex than other models which are designed to address detailed operational
issues. This speeds up the run time and allows one to evaluate a large number
of resource acquisition plans.
Inputs to the ISAAC include a distribution of load forecasts, cost and
performance characteristics of existing hydro and thermal generating resources,
new resource supply curve data (cost, availability, lead times), aluminum
industry data (price forecasts and plant capabilities), California market
conditions, and extra-regional and intra-regional contracts.
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A typical study consists of 100 simulations, each simulation selecting discrete
values for the uncertainty variables for a study horizon of twenty years or longer.
Results are reported as sample means over all simulations or as frequency
distributions. The ISAAC model reports capital costs, system operating costs,
and revenues received by each party from extra-regional sales. The model also
reports transactions between PNW parties, how often particular resources are
acquired and how often those resources are dispatched to serve load. The
ISAAC model measures the costs of over-building when loads subsequently fall,
or under-building when loads subsequently rise faster than forecast.
Since the System Analysis Model II does not make resource acquisition
decisions, it needs as input additional resources to maintain load/resource
balance through 2012. The ISAAC model was used to select new conservation
and generating resources for the study horizon 1993 to 2012. For planning
purposes, it was assumed that BPA and the IOUs will acquire resources
separately and that none of the IOU load will be placed on BPA. It was also
assumed that all load growth of the GPUs will be placed on BPA.
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SECTION 2
ACCELERATED CALIFORNIA MARKET ESTIMATOR
(ACME)
Model Description
The ACME is a model developed by BPA that provides estimates of the market
in California for nonfirm energy from the Pacific Northwest (PNW). It produces a
market curve that relates the quantity of nonfirm energy delivered to California to
the variable cost of the resources that nonfirm energy could displace. The
ACME considers one week at a time, each week divided into 56 3-hour periods
that represent a month. It can produce a market for up to 20 years.
The ACME uses two bubbles to represent California (CAL) and the Inland
Southwest (ISW). All entities in California are aggregated together and the
states of Nevada, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico in the ISW are aggregated
together. Each bubble has its own set of loads and resources. One of the
available resources to meet California load represents nonfirm energy from the
PNW. The resources in each bubble are dispatched to serve their respective
loads. This dispatch takes four stages: hydro dispatch, pre-commitment to
determine minimum generation, unit commitment to determine maximum
generation, and a thermal dispatch. Next a transfer dispatch takes place that
allows energy deliveries from ISW to CAL if the ISW has a cheaper resource to
run that could displace a more expensive CAL resource. Finally, the model
operates California pumped storage facilities to shift load from heavy-load
periods to light-load periods.
Inputs to the ACME include California and Inland Southwest energy load
forecasts and load shapes, California and Inland Southwest resource data
(minimum and maximum generation factors, heat rates, maintenance, etc.),
Intertie connections, gas and oil price forecasts and coal escalation rates.
There are two types of output the ACME produces that represent California's
demand for PNW nonfirm energy. The first output file (MARGINAL.DAT) is a
demand curve that relates California's marginal costs (in mills/kwh) to the
amount of PNW nonfirm energy purchased by California (in 1000 MW
increments). This market is produced by increasing the amount of PNW
nonfirm energy purchased to displace California generation by 1000 MW
increments from 0 to 8000 MW and recording the marginal cost of the last
resource running in California. The second output file relates the quantity of
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PNW nonfirm energy purchased by California (in MW) to the price of PNW
nonfirm energy (in 1 mill/kwh increments). This `mill-by-mill' output is generated
by varying the price, not the amount, of PNW nonfirm energy and recording the
amount of PNW nonfirm energy purchased by California.
The ACME model was used to provide a California market for the SAM II for the
study horizon 1993 to 2012. The file `MARGINAL.DAT' represents California's
potential market for PNW nonfirm energy based solely on California's
decremental fuel cost of resources to displace.
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SECTION 3
SYSTEM ANALYSIS MODEL
(SAM)
Model Description
The SAM is a Monte Carlo simulation model that was developed by BPA and
other Pacific Northwest Utilities to evaluate planning and operating policies of
the Pacific Northwest. The model simulates the operation of the Pacific
Northwest power system and British Columbia Hydro power system taking into
account uncertainties in loads, thermal performance, and streamflow conditions.
The SAM includes a complex hydro regulation model that is integrated with
thermal resource operation. The SAM is an energy model that operates on a
monthly basis for a study horizon up to twenty years.
The SAM II is an option of the SAM that splits the PNW region into three groups;
Generating Public Utilities (GPU), Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU), and Bonneville
Power Administration (BPA). The SAM II shares much of the same logic as the
SAM, but includes planning and operating policies that reflect how the PNW
groups interact. The policies that the SAM II accounts for include: the GPU
Requirement load, Northwest preference, regular interchange, and Intertie
ownership.
The SAM includes regional planning as defined by the Pacific Northwest
Coordination Agreement. The purpose of regional planning is to operate the
hydro system in a coordinated manner. The model includes a two-year critical
period planning process that occurs at the beginning of each operating year.
During this annual planning, decisions about shifting and shaping hydro Firm
Energy Load Carrying Capability (FELCC) are made. During a period planning
process, Prices for loads and dispatch rates for hydro resources are at to
simulate the operation of the hydro/thermal system as realistically as possible.
The regional SAM operates the hydro and thermal systems as a one utility
owner. Hydro and thermal resources are dispatched to serve load in the most
economic manner; the resource with the lowest variable cost serves the load
with the greatest value or price. If running the SAM II, an economic dispatch is
also performed where each PNW group has the opportunity to serve its own
load, serve another group's load, or displace another groups resource based on
opportunity costs. The California demand for nonfirm energy is included as a
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load. If there is economic surplus energy available in the PNW or Canada, the
California market is allocated according to the Long-Term Intertie Access Policy.
Surplus BC energy is made available to the US for purchase after BC resources
are operated to serve its own load.
After the dispatch is complete, the hydro regulator is called to produce a desired
amount of hydro generation. Even though the hydro system is operated as a
one utility owner, the model keeps track of project generation by owner. This
allows for storage transactions to take place between PNW groups, when
running the SAM II option.
The SAM models uncertainty in streamflow conditions. Water years for each
operating year are randomly selected from fifty historical water years (1929 -
1978). The SAM reflects variations in load due to weather conditions and
economic trends, but does not consider load growth uncertainty. The model
accounts for two sources of uncertainty for thermal plants; availability (forced
outages) and arrival dates.
Inputs to the model include PNW loads, intra-regional and extra-regional firm
contracts, existing and planned thermal plant characteristics and operating
costs, hydro plant data, conservation and renewable resources, SC Hydro loads
and resources, California market, Intertie ownership, and BPA rates.
The California market input to the SAM consists of California's marginal costs for
563-hour periods for each month for twenty years as a function of PNW nonfirm
energy available in 1000 MW blocks. The SAM adjusts the California market to
reflect the impact of firm contracts with California. Firm exports reduce and firm
imports increase the amount of market for PNW nonfirm energy. Also, since the
SAM is a monthly energy model, the hourly market is reduced to a monthly
average demand curve.
A typical study consists of 200 simulations, selecting random values for
streamflow conditions, loads, and thermal performance. The model provides
system costs (production, curtailment) and revenues (economy energy,
wheeling) for economic analysis. It also provides resource sac output
(thermal plant generation, hydro operation data) for environmental analysis. The
hydro data includes reservoir elevations, flows, and overgeneration spill.
Results are reported as sample means over all simulations. Some information
can be reported as sample means over low, medium and high streamflow
conditions.
Modeling of the Northwest Power Planning Council (NWPPC) Phase II
Amendments To the Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program
The SAM was modified to incorporate the Phase II amendments to the NWPPC's
Fish & Wildlife Program. The Phase II amendments call for a new water budget
operation on the Snake River and an operational water budget on the Columbia
River to be used in conjunction with the existing water budget volume.
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Appendix F.
Part 2. NFP eis Analytical Specification
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Appendix F
Part 2. NFP eis Analytical Specification
OVERVIEW
The purpose of this discussion is to identify the System Analysis Model (SAM)
studies for the NFPeis. This appendix contains three major sections. The first
section identifies each of the alternatives and their respective assumptions that
will be modeled in the SAM. Not all of the alternatives listed in Chapter 2 will be
analyzed with the SAM because of model limitations. Those alternatives not
covered will be analyzed using a qualitative procedure versus the quantitative
SAM based procedure. However, the qualitative analysis may rely on inferences
made from the SAM study results. The second section identifies the types of
sensitivities that are considered in the environmental process. Accounting for all
of the alternatives and the sensitivities results in a large number of required
SAM runs. It is prudent to minimize the number of actual SAM runs needed.
Therefore, a third section subjects the full range of required SAM studies to a
process that logically removes certain studies from consideration.
ALTERNATIVE SPECIFICATION
This section identifies the assumptions contained in each of the NFPeis
alternatives analyzed with the SAM. The procedure employed in the NFPeis
analysis is defined as one of `comparative statics.' This is a process of
comparing the results from two different SAM studies where only one factor has
been allowed to change between the studies. The differences in the study
results can then be attributed to the impact of the one altered factor.
A basic set of data and assumptions is contained in each of the SAM studies.
This load, resource, and operational information is intended to. represent !he
current situation as modeled by the SAM. This basic data is described under the
`No Action' alternative and is common to all of the NFPeis alternatives analyzed.
The discussion of each alternative identifies data and assumptions that differ
from the `No Action' case.
No Action
The No Action case implies that no new decisions will be made concerning use
of the Third AC Intertie during the 20 year (September 1992 through August
2012) study horizon. The assumptions in this case are essentially those that
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frozen early in the eis process and may not be the most current available.
Considerable time is required for updating and verifying the impact of new
information in the SAM. Until the SAM studies for the NFPeis were performed,
information more current than that included in the SAM was considered in light of
whether it would alter the eyed results of the study process. The nature of
the `comparative statics' approach implies that certain data modifications
common to both studies will not affect the differences between those studies.
Items that would alter the differences were incorporated as much as possible
and those that didn't were not incorporated. Each of the major data categories
and their assumptions are described below.
BC Hydro
BC Hydro load and resource information is based on the 1991 update of their
Electricity Plan. The rated transfer capability of the transmission interconnection
with the Northwest is 2300 MW.
Pacific Northwest
Loads
The 1991 Joint Load Forecast provides the individual entity (Investor Owned
Utilities - IOU, Generating Publics - GPUB, Non-Generating Publics - NGPUB,
and Federal - BPA) load forecasts. This forecast is used in the 1991 Pacific
Northwest Loads and Resources Study (Whitebook) and in the 1992 Resource
Program. BPA power sales contracts are assumed to be renewed in 2001.
Estraregional imports and exports include all such contracts listed in the 1991
Whitebook. In addition, new contracts not included in the 1991 Whitebook were
added. These include Idaho Power to Azusa, Banning, and Colton (assured
delivery contracts 7 MW peak, 7 aMW, delivered-year round from 11/1993 thru
9/2010) and Washington Water Power to NCPA (joint venture contract, 50 MW
peak, 50 aMW, delivered year round from 11/1993 thru 9/2010).
The NFPeis assumes that the 800 MW of intertie capacity available for assured
delivery under the Long Term Intertie Access Policy are fully used. For the
NFPeis studies, the 153 MW peak, 122 aMW of unused assured delivery
capacity for firm surplus sales was split 52% - 48%, IOU - GPUB, respectively.
Generic IOU/GPUB firm sale contracts to the Southwest were created to fill the
unused portion of the assured delivery capacity.
Resources
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The amount of existing thermal resource in the region is consistent with the 1991
Whitebook. The major difference is that Trojan is removed from service in 1996.
Incremental resources required to create a load/resource balance are provided
from the ISAAC model. Resource availability and cost information is consistent
with the 1992 Resource Program. NFPeis resource additions for high and low
loads, by entity (BPA and IOU), are detailed in tables 1 thru 4 at the end of this
appendix.
Regional hydro resource capability is based on the 1992 Pacific Northwest
Coordination Agreement (PNCA) submittals. It is assumed for the NFPeis that
the PNCA will be renewed in 2003. In addition, non-treaty storage with B.C.
Hydro is 4.5 million acre-feet and the current agreement is assumed to be
renewed in 2003. Hydro system operating guidelines for the Columbia and
upper Snake are based on Phase 2 of the Regional Council's plan. Appendix C
contains a brief discussion of Phase 2 requirements.
PNW - PSW Intertie
The NFPeis assumes that the Long Term Intertie Access Policy remains in force
throughout the study horizon. The first 800 MW of the Third AC comes in
service January 1993 with the remaining 800 MW operational in November
1993. With completion of the Third AC, the total intertie size is 7900 MW of
which PGE owns 950 MW and PacifiCorp owns 400 MW. Of the remaining
capacity, 800 MW is filled with assured delivery contracts and another 650 MW
is filled with existing Federal marketing and joint venture contracts. This leaves
5100 MW of the intertie available for spot market transactions in the `no action'
case (see Chart 1).
Wholesale Rates
The rates charged by BPA for power sales and transmission activities are
consistent with the 1991 Wholesale and Transmission Rate Schedules and the
November 1991 Wholesale Power Rate Projections document.
California/Inland Southwest
California market data included in the SAM is provided by the Accelerated
California Market Estimator (ACME). The base ACME data is derived from the
California Energy Commission Draft 1992 Energy Report. Fuel price forecasts
are based on the June 1992 BPA long term forecast of oil and gas prices.
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Federal Marketing
The Federal marketing (FM) case analyzes the environmental impact associated
with the marketing of incremental streamflows due to flow requirements for fish
passage during May and June. The SAM portrays this alternative in two
separate parts. The first option (FM Case A) adds a firm power seasonal
diversity export to the Southwest during May and June of 1100 MW peak and
1100 aMW energy. The energy associated with this export is returned to BPA
during the offpeak hours of the months October through March. Case A also
includes a capacity energy exchange contract of 1100 MW during the months of
July through September with the return of the exchange energy deferred until the
October through March period.
Federal marketing Case B includes elements of the above but is geared to
combining the use of incremental flows with other firm contracts using the intertie
to access the California market. In this case, a firm power export of 1100 MW
peak and 1100 aMW energy, during all months of the year, is added to the SAM
data. This contract flows over the BPA portion of the intertie as a joint venture
type of contract: The resource used to serve this contract comes from outside of
BPA during the months of July through April. During May and June, BPA
supplies this firm contract with the same type of seasonal diversity contract as
noted above. The energy associated with the two month delivery is returned to
BPA offpeak during the months of October through March.
Both Case A and B alter the `no action' case intertie allocation by increasing the
portion used for Federal marketing. In Chart 1, it is shown that the intertie
allocation for Federal marketing goes from 650 MW to 1750 MW. This has the
effect of reducing the intertie space remaining for spot transactions from 5100
MW to 4000 MW.
Capacity Ownership
In the capacity ownership (CO) case, 725 MW of Federal intertie capability is
transferred to non-Federal owners. The CO case thus reduces the portion of the
intertie available for spot market transactions from 5100 MW to 4375 MW (see
Chart 1). Modeling this option in the SAM required some specification of how
the 725 MW would be allocated among the non-Federal users and what types of
contracts would flow over that portion of the intertie.
Allocation Methodology
The NFPeis considers environmental impacts based on a `bounding' approach.
The intent is to determine a set of alternatives that represent the bounds of all
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possible expected outcomes. That way, any decision that is made will fall within
the analyzed bounds and, consequently, within the analyzed environmental
impacts. This approach was applied to the specification of the allocation
methodology employed in the SAM.
BPA executed Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) with those entities
indicating an interest in obtaining a portion of the available 725 MW. The total
amount of interest ranged from a low of 1170 MW and a high of 1542 MW. The
NFPeis allocation scheme employed in the SAM was to allocate the 725 MW
over the IOUs and Publics based on the indications provided by the MOUs. Of
the total amounts requested, the IOUs accounted for an average (an average of
the high and the low request for each group) of 48% and the Publics accounted
for 52%. These percentages were applied to the 725 MW with a resulting 350
MW going to the IOUs and 375 MW going to the Publics. The other alternative
is to assign all of the 725 MW to the Publics. For the purposes of the NFPeis,
these two allocation alternatives are felt to bound the actual allocation scheme
that may result.
Contract Alternatives
The `bounding' approach is also applied when specifying alternative contract
types considered in the NFPeis There are two types of contracts that would
most likely represent the variety of contracts that would flow over the intertie.
These two are seasonal exchange contracts and annual firm power sale
contracts. The two alternatives modeled in the SAM are one where the 725 MW
is filled with firm power exports and another where it is filled with seasonal
exchange contracts.
The firm power sale is modeled as a firm export for 12 months of the year
delivered at a 100% load factor. The seasonal exchange contract was modeled
as a firm export during the months June through September and as a firm import
during the months November through February. Both the export and the import
portions are delivered at a 100% load factor. The rationale for the four month
delivery and return is based on existing seasonal exchange contracts between
PNW and PSW utilities. The 1991 Whitebook lists five such contracts, four of
which are delivered June through September and one that is delivered May
through September. Three of these contracts are returned November through
February, one is returned November through March, and one is returned
December through March. The decision to deliver at a 100% load factor is
directly related to the fact that the SAM is an energy model and a 100% load
factor will generate the largest energy impact. This is once again a result of the
`bounding' approach.
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Resource Acquisitions
When developing the contract alternatives, the issue of resource acquisitions
surfaced. Resource acquisition decisions are assumed in the NFPeis to be
made on the basis of annual deficits. With a hydro based generation system,
the opportunity exists for water to be shaped from one month to the next to
handle monthly or shorter term resource deficits. However, if a deficit occurs on
an annual basis, just shaping water will not solve the shortage since there is a
planning deficit. Consequently, for those cases where a non-Federal participant
enters into a firm power export contract that creates an annual deficit, combined
cycle combustion turbine generation is added to the resource stack modeled in
the SAM.
The assumption, particularly with respect to the Publics, is that export contracts
to the Southwest that create an increase in annual load, will not increase the
annual load placed on the Federal system. The SAM assumes that all Public
agency load in excess of their own resources is placed on the Federal system as
net requirements customers. If the Publics were to write an export contract
without adding some resource to serve that contract, additional net requirement
load would be placed on BPA
This result does not apply to the seasonal exchange contracts. Seasonal
exchange contracts net to zero on an annual basis. While the annual load
placed on BPA by a Public that writes a seasonal exchange contract does not
change, there are changes in the monthly loads. During the periods of export or
delivery, the load placed on BPA will likely increase. However, when the
contract takes the form of the import, the load placed on BPA is reduced.
The NFPeis considers the environmental impact associated with non-Federal
participation in the intertie. The assumptions concerning contract types and
resource requirements in the capacity ownership case are intended to generate
the most significant impact while still remaining consistent with expected BPA
policy.
Assured Delivery
The assured delivery (AD) case considers the impact of increasing the intertie
space dedicated to assured delivery contracts from the current 800 MW to 1525
MW, an increase of 725 MW. This case requires the same set of assumptions
concerning allocation of the increased assured delivery, contract types that may
use the additional space, and resource acquisition requirements. All of the
assumptions made in the capacity ownership case apply to the increased
assured delivery case as well. All provisions regarding assured delivery as
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specified in the Long Term Intertie Access Policy apply to the additional 725
MW.
In Chart 1, it can be seen that the assured delivery case does not alter the
amount of intertie space remaining for spot transactions over that shown for the
capacity ownership case. The fundamental difference between the two cases is
how unused intertie capacity is treated in the SAM. Under the capacity
ownership case, the 725 MW is reserved exclusively for the use of the owner at
all times. If some of the capacity is unused, it will remain so. Under the assured
delivery case, the 725 MW is available for exclusive use of the subscriber only
during times that the contract is being delivered. During other times, any unused
intertie space is allocated under the provisions of the Long Term Intertie Access
Policy.
Cumulative Alternatives
It is reasonably clear that BPA will attempt to mitigate the impacts on the power
system associated with increased fish related flow requirements. This mitigation
will include some sort of increased Federal marketing. It is also the case that
BPA's preferred alternative with respect to non-Federal participation in the
intertie is the capacity ownership alternative. In any event, it is likely that the
final outcome will include some combination of the individual alternatives
described above. Consequently, the NFPeis includes cumulative alternatives
that analyze the combined effects of certain actions. These alternatives
combine the Federal marketing cases A or B with the various capacity ownership
and assured delivery cases. Chart 2 indicates the effect of these combinations
on the intertie allocation. In the federal marketing case 4000 MW of intertie
capacity remains for spot market sales. When adding an additional 725 MW of
capacity ownership or assured delivery, the amount remaining for spot sales
declines to 3275 MW.
STUDY SENSITIVITIES
To arrive at an overall estimate of environmental impacts, each of the specified
alternatives are sometimes considered under a series of alternate assumptions
or sensitivities. These sensitivities could include varying the regional load
forecast from high to medium to low and/or varying the price forecast of natural
gas in the Southwest from high to medium to low. Load forecast variations will
alter the types of resources acquired to meet load growth or generate a situation
where the region has surplus resources. Since natural gas is the fuel for the
California resources displaced by purchases from the Northwest, adjusting the
price of gas directly affects the value of the market faced by this region. These
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variations create situations where alternative use of the intertie has significantly
different values and potentially different environmental impacts.
Chart 3 presents a decision tree listing all possible study combinations of the
alternatives previously identified. If one were to analyze all 27 of the
alternatives under each of the three load forecasts matched with each of the
three Southwest gas price sensitivities, the total number of studies generated
would be 243. This large amount of information is unnecessary to adequately
consider a viable range of environmental impacts. It is possible to logically
winnow out those studies that are redundant or do not provide information that
would alter any given decision. This study minimizing process assumes that
environmental assessment requirements can be met by `bounding'
environmental impacts by considering those sensitivities that would create the
most significant impacts under a given set of alternatives. This procedure would
then provide environmental coverage for any decision that represents a result
that falls anywhere between the bounds considered.
Load Forecast Sensitivities
Load forecast sensitivities can create significant changes in expected results.
Under the low load forecast, the regional entities have a surplus of resources.
With a surplus, as compared to a balanced system, more sales will be made
over the intertie, more resources may be displaced, and the hydro system may
be operated differently because of the surplus. When estimating a `boundary'
for impacts associated with non-federal ownership of the intertie, the SAM needs
to be operated assuming surplus conditions. Thus, the NFPeis studies include
the low load sensitivity.
With current projections, both the high and medium load forecast exceed
regional resource capability. From a planning standpoint, resources would be
acquired to balance system loads and resources under conditions of adverse
water. The major difference between these two load forecasts, when applied to
a SAM analysis, concerns the types of resources acquired to create a balanced
system under each forecast. With the high load forecast, the resources acquired
would include all of those needed to meet the medium load forecast plus other
resources. These other resources could include resource types not considered
in the medium case such as coal or nuclear generation. The SAM depiction of
system operation does vary greatly depending upon whether the system is
surplus or balanced. System operation does not show large variation when
considering two situations where both are-balanced. The difference in balanced
operation lies in the amounts and types of resources added and how the hydro
system can best be used to minimize the overall operating cost. Selecting the
high load case as a sensitivity provides the greatest opportunity for assessing
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effects on system operation due to altering intertie ownership primarily due to
the large number and variety of resource additions with high loads. The
`bounding' argument implies that the NFPeis studies consider high loads and
that studies based on the medium load forecast can be disregarded since their
results would fall between the high and low cases.
Southwest Natural Gas Price Sensitivities
The forecasted cost of natural gas supply to utilities in the Southwest is
important when estimating the impact of changing the amount of Federal
ownership in the intertie. An input to the SAM is an estimate of the decremental
(i.e. the cost saved by displacing or not operating the resource) operating cost of
Southwest generating resources. This decremental cost is directly related to the
cost of natural gas since that is the fuel of choice for most of those displaceable
resources. To make an argument concerning the use of any particular gas
forecast, it is important to understand the basics of how the Southwest market is
calculated and applied in the SAM.
Intertie capacity has value because it allows for firm export contracts, firm import
contracts, and spot market economy energy sales between the Northwest and
the Southwest. The SAM assumes that Northwest exports to the Southwest are
used by Southwest utilities to displace operation of their highest cost resources.
Consequently, the data in the SAM indicating the size and value of the
Southwest decremental resource market is reduced alter accounting for
Northwest export contracts. Northwest firm imports from the Southwest augment
the Northwest resource base and essentially expand the size of the Southwest
market because imports are displaceable by Northwest resource operation. The
Southwest decremental cost market, as adjusted for export and import contracts,
is then used in the SAM to determine the market for economy energy sales.
Basically, the SAM estimates spot market sales of economy energy over the
intertie by comparing the incremental (i.e. the cost incurred to generate an
additional unit of energy) cost of generation by Northwest entities to the
decremental cost of generation in the Southwest.
On an operational basis, when the differential between the Northwest
incremental cost and the Southwest decremental cost is large, there is more
opportunity to make economic energy sales to the southwest. This increased
opportunity translates into an increased value for those Northwest entities that
have access to the intertie and an increased value for the intertie itself. When
estimating the value of ownership rights in the intertie or the impact associated
with alternative firm contract types, it is more environmentally and economically
significant to test this value when the cost differential is the greatest. The
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NFPeis studies assume that the Southwest is experiencing a forecast of high
natural gas prices.
Alternatives Considered
In addition to reducing the various sensitivities, there are some of the
alternatives that do not need to be analyzed. As noted in the alternative
description section there is very little difference between the assured
delivery and capacity ownership alternatives. The only difference noted related
to the use of unused intertie capacity. The assumption was made when
designing the firm power export sale contract that the contract was delivered 24
hours a day all year round. This contract type was proposed to be analyzed
under both the capacity ownership and assured delivery alternative. For this
alternative, it can be seen that the contract continually fills all of the intertie
space available under both the assured delivery option and the capacity
ownership option. There is no unused capacity to be allocated in a different
manner between the two alternatives. There is also no need to analyze both the
assured delivery and capacity ownership cases when considering the firm export
contract case since the results will be identical. Consequently, the NFPeis has
deleted from consideration all those SAM studies that included the firm export
sale with the assured delivery alternative. These studies are shown in Chart 3
as lines 7, 9, 17, 19, 25, and 27.
By reducing the sensitivities to include only the high Southwest gas forecast, the
high and low load forecast, and only those SAM studies that are needed greatly
reduces the number of SAM studies required. A full listing of the required SAM
studies is presented in Chart 4. This chart shows that the `bounding' approach
has reduced the total number of studies from 243 to a more manageable 42.
F18
Figure (Page F19 Chart 1 NFP-eis INTERTIE ALLOCATION DISCRETE ALTERNATIVES)
Figure (Page F20 Chart 2 NFP-eis INTERTIE ALLOCATION CUMULATIVE ALTERNATIVES)
Figure (Page F22 Chart 3 NFP-eis DECISION TREE SYSTEM ANALYSIS MODEL STUDIES)
Figure (Page F23 Chart 4 NFP-eis DECISION TREE SYSTEM ANALYSIS MODEL STUDIES)
Table F-1
BPA RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR HIGH LOADS
AVERAGE MW
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 64 0 1230 1294
1994 Sep-93 117 95 1230 1442
1995 Sep-94 179 159 1476 1814
1996 Sep-95 248 417 1230 1895
1997 Sep-96 322 417 0 1460 2199
1998 Sep-97 402 417 0 1460 2279
1999 Sep-98 484 417 0 1825 2726
2000 Sep-99 571 417 0 1825 2813
2001 Sep-00 657 417 0 2190 3264
2002 Sep-01 738 552 0 2190 3480
2000 Sep-02 821 556 0 2190 3567
2004 Sep-03 901 560 0 2190 806 4457
2005 Sep-04 988 568 0 2190 806 4552
2006 Sep-05 1080 816 0 2190 806 4892
2007 Sep-06 1168 1010 0 2190 806 5174
2008 Sep-07 1246 1022 0 2190 806 5264
2009 Sep-03 1324 1026 0 2190 806 5336
2010 Sep-09 1397 1026 0 2190 806 5419
2011 Sep-10 1397 1026 0 2190 806 5419
2012 Sep-11 1397 1026 0 2190 806 5419
Purchases modeled as Simple Cycle CTs
Simple Cycle CTs = 246, Combined Cycle CTs = 365, COAL = 426, WNP 3 = 806
Renewables are Solar, Goethermal, Cogeneration, Small Hydro, etc.
F23
Table F-2
IOU RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR HIGH LOADS
AVERAGE MW
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 10 0 984 994
1994 Sep-93 54 15 1230 1299
1995 Sep-94 142 30 1722 1894
1996 Sep-95 250 655 1230 2135
1997 Sep-96 364 975 738 1095 3172
1998 Sep-97 479 2131 0 1095 3705
1999 Sep-98 595 2488 0 1095 4178
2000 Sep-99 717 2828 0 1095 4640
2001 Sep-00 839 3137 0 1095 5071
2002 Sep-01 961 3205 0 1095 5261
2003 Sep-02 1083 3226 0 1095 426 5830
2004 Sep-03 1202 3244 0 1095 852 6393
2005 Sep-04 1308 3281 0 1095 1278 6962
2006 Sep-05 1394 3281 0 1095 1704 7474
2007 Sep-06 1478 3281 0 1095 1704 7558
2008 Sep-07 1563 3585 0 1095 2130 8373
2009 Sep-08 1645 3693 0 1095 2556 8989
2010 Sep-09 1727 3733 0 1095 2556 9111
2011 Sep-10 1727 3733 0 1095 2982 9537
2012 Sep-11 1727 3733 0 1095 3408 9963
Purchases modeled as Simple Cycle CTs
Simple Cycle CTs = 246, Combined Cycle CTs = 365, COAL = 426, WNP 3 = 806
Renewables are Solar, Goethermal, Cogeneration, Small Hydro, etc.
F24
Table F-3
BPA RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR MEDIUM LOADS
AVERAGE MW
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 56 0 492 548
1994 Sep-93 103 95 492 69O
1995 Sep-94 159 154 246 559
1996 Sep-95 221 412 633
1997 Sep-96 288 412 700
1998 Sep-97 360 412 772
1999 Sep-98 435 412 847
2000 Sep-99 512 412 365 1289
2001 Sep-00 587 412 365 1364
2002 Sep-01 657 412 365 1434
2003 Sep-02 730 412 365 1507
2004 Sep-03 772 421 365 1558
2005 Sep-04 815 425 365 1605
2006 Sep-05 863 429 365 1657
2007 Sep-06 921 432 365 1718
2008 Sep-07 980 437 365 1782
2009 Sep-03 1038 440 365 1843
2010 Sep-09 1097 440 365 1902
2011 Sep-10 1097 440 365 1902
2012 Sep-11 1097 440 365 1902
Purchases modeled as Simple Cycle CTs
Simple Cycle CTs = 246, Combined Cycle CTs = 365, COAL = 426, WNP 3 = 806
Renewables are Solar, Geothermal, Cogeneration, Small Hydro, etc.
F:\CINDYM\MLRACUM.XLS:12/2/92
F25
Table F-4
IOU RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR MEDIUM LOADS
AVERAGE MW
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 5 0 0 5
1994 Sep-93 43 5 246 294
1995 Sep-94 118 20 492 630
1996 Sep-95 208 109 492 809
1997 Sep-96 304 378 1095 1777
1998 Sep-97 402 423 1095 1920
1999 Sep-98 503 702 1095 2300
2000 Sep-99 605 819 1095 2519
2001 Sep-00 706 919 1095 2720
2002 Sep-01 790 1188 1095 3073
2003 Sep-02 873 1316 1095 3284
2004 Sep-03 953 1473 1095 3521
2005 Sep-04 1027 1626 1095 3748
2006 Sep-05 1098 1634 1095 3827
2007 Sep-06 1165 1682 1095 3942
2008 Sep-07 1230 1905 1095 4230
2009 Sep-08 1295 2018 1095 4408
2010 Sep-09 1361 2066 1095 426 4948
2011 Sep-10 1361 2066 1095 426 4948
2012 Sep-11 1361 2066 1095 426 4948
Purchases modeled as Simple Cycle CTs
Simple Cycle CTs = 246, Combined Cycle CTs = 365, COAL = 426, WNP 3 = 806
Renewables are Solar, Geothermal, Cogeneration, Small Hydro, etc.
F:\CINDYM\MLRACUM.XLS:12/2/92
F26
Table F-5
BPA RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR LOW LOADS
AVERAGE MW
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 52 0 52
1994 Sep-03 93 95 188
1995 Sep-94 143 154 297
1996 Sep-95 201 412 613
1997 Sep-96 263 412 675
1998 Sep-97 331 412 743
1999 Sep-98 400 412 812
2000 Sep-99 468 412 880
2001 Sep-00 534 412 946
2002 Sep-01 596 412 1008
2003 Sep-02 660 412 1072
2004 Sep-03 663 412 1075
2005 Sep-04 667 412 1079
2006 Sep-06 670 412 1082
2007 Sep-03 673 412 1085
2008 Sep-07 677 412 1089
2009 Sep-03 681 412 1093
2010 Sep-09 685 412 1097
2011 Sep-10 685 412 1097
2012 Sep-11 685 412 1097
Purchases modeled as Simple Cycle CTs
Simple Cycle CTs = 246, Combined Cycle CTs = 365, COAL = 426, WNP 3 = 806
Renewables are Solar, Geothermal, Cogeneration, Small Hydro, etc.
F27
Table F-6
IOU RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR LOW LOADS
AVERAGE MW
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 2 0 2
1994 Sep-93 18 0 18
1995 Sep-94 51 0 51
1996 Sep-95 108 0 108
1997 Sep-96 182 5 187
1998 Sep-97 261 15 276
1999 Sep-98 326 33 359
2000 Sep-99 381 37 418
2001 Sep-00 440 40 480
2002 Sep-01 504 106 610
2003 Sep-02 569 115 684
2004 Sep-03 625 124 749
2005 Sep-04 679 132 811
2006 Sep-05 738 141 879
2007 Sep-06 796 150 946
2008 Sep-07 851 159 365 1375
2009 Sep-08 900 165 365 1430
2010 Sep-09 949 165 365 1479
2011 Sep-10 949 165 365 1479
2012 Sep-11 949 165 365 1479
Purchases modeled as Simple Cycle CTs
Simple Cycle CTs = 246, Combined Cycle CTs = 365, COAL = 426, WNP 3 = 806
Renewables are Solar, Geothermal, Cogeneration, Small Hydro, etc.
F28
Appendix F.
Part 3. Hydro System Operation
SECTION 1: Important Terms and Concepts
SECTION 2: Hydropower System Planning and Operation
F29
SECTION 1
IMPORTANT TERMS AND CONCEPTS
Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) as a Multi-Use System
The Federal Columbia River Power System serves multiple purposes in addition to
power generation: flood control, navigation, recreation, irrigation, fishery benefits, and
other such non-power uses. BPA markets the power from FCRPS projects pursuant to
the Bonneville Project Act and other Federal legislation and orders. FCRPS projects are
operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation. BPA
and these agencies have Memorandums of Understanding recognizing each others'
responsibilities and establishing operating arrangements. Non-power uses and electric
power production are brought together in the development of "operating requirements"
(see following discussion of Operating Requirements).
The Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (Coordination Agreement)
The electric utilities of the Pacific Northwest plan and operate their systems in a
coordinated manner. BPA plays a major role in this planning. This planning is carried
out under the specifications of the Agreement for Coordination of Operations among
Power Systems of the Pacific Northwest, also known as the Pacific Northwest
Coordination Agreement. The Coordination Agreement's major provisions deal with
preparation of the Annual Operating Plan, and the monthly, weekly, and daily operations
of the parties' generating systems. Coordination of reservoir operations is given special
attention, particularly when there is diverse ownership of generating plants downstream
from a reservoir.
The Coordination Agreement does not cover two significant aspects of coordination:
long-range planning of new resources, and short-term hour-by-hour coordinated
operation of generating facilities.
F30
All major generating utilities in the Pacific Northwest are parties to the Coordination
Agreement, except The Idaho Power Company. Idaho Power does coordinate its
Brownlee Reservoir operations in concert with the Agreement to a certain extent. Joint
planning is essential because the system utilities are interconnected electrically through
shared transmission facilities, and hydraulically through the effect of released water on
downstream hydroelectric projects. The advantages to the region of operating a
coordinated system are:
* ability to take advantage of more efficient operation of hydro resources;
* ability to exchange power among member utilities;
* assistance gained during emergency outages of transmission lines or
generators;
* ability to take advantage of diversities among systems in loads,
generation, and maintenance outages; and
* reduced overall costs from coordinated use of all facilities and
elimination of duplicative or multiple generation, transmission, and
control facilities.
Reservoir-owning parties and parties with downstream generating plants coordinate
storage and release of water and interchange power among systems to achieve more
efficient use of the hydro system for the region and greater guarantees of meeting firm
load.
Annual Operating Plan
Each year, an operating plan is prepared for the next July-June operating year. It
combines the operating characteristics of thermal and hydroelectric plants, load
forecasts, and historical streamflows to determine system capabilities. It uses monthly
(sometimes half-month) time increments. It describes loads and resource capabilities in
terms of two quantities -- average energy for monthly periods, and peak load or
generating capability during the month. The purpose of the Annual Operating Plan is to
determine how much load can be served with existing resources.
F31
Determination of the Multi-Year Critical Period and FELCC
Preparation of the Annual Operating Plan starts in February of each year. Participants in
the Coordination Agreement (BPA, various investor-owned utilities, public utilities, and
hydroelectric project operators) submit loads, resources, and operating requirements for
a multi-year period (that is, each year, they submit data for the next 4 years) for use in
developing an Annual Operating Plan. The Northwest Power Pool Coordinating Group
then uses a computerized model to produce the Actual Energy Regulation study to
determine the critical period for the coordinated system and the total Firm Energy Load
Carrying Capability (FELCC) for the coordinated system and for each member system.
The Critical Period
The critical period is that portion of the historical 50-year streamflow a record which,
when combined with draft of all available reservoir storage, will produce the least
amount of energy, with energy used according to seasonal load patterns. At
present, the coordinated system's critical period is about 3-1/2 years long,
encompassing the historical period from September 1928 through February 1932.
Prior to the construction of the three "Canadian Storage" reservoirs and the Libby
dam, the coordinated system's critical period was about 8 months long,
encompassing the historical months from September 1936 through April 1937. The
the data on actual water conditions that prevailed during the critical period are used
with current data on loads and resources to determine FELCC.
Firm Energy Load Carrying Capability (FELCC)
FELCC is the level of energy capable of being produced by the hydro system using
all of the reservoir storage in combination with critical period streamflows. FELCC
is used to determine the levels to which the coordinated system's reservoirs may be
drafted to produce firm energy. The Coordination Agreement's published annual
operating program includes the FELCC for each month of the coming operating year
for the coordinated system and for each participant.
The planning model takes into account the requirements imposed on the system (flood
control, navigation, irrigation, the Water Budget, and other factors).
An important concept of the Coordination Agreement is that the energy studies are made
by using the total coordinated system as if it were a single-ownership system.
F32
Operating Requirements
FCRPS plants are operated to produce power within "operating requirements," some of
which describe the physical operating limits of the project, and some of which prioritize
the use of the project between power and non-power uses. Operating requirements may
limit maximum or minimum reservoir levels, project outflows, spills, rates of change of
outflows, or many other operating parameters. These limits are often different for
various times of the year.
Operations planning is another important guide to FCRPS operation, and to the
trade-offs between power and non-power functions of each project.
At the time each hydroelectric project is designed, numerous operating parameters are
defined. These include the maximum and minimum reservoir elevations, minimum
outflows, and other parameters. Operating limits sometimes include maximum rates of
change of reservoir levels or outflows. Some may be the direct result of physical design
parameters: for example, the minimum reservoir elevation may be determined by the
vertical placement of the outlet works. Some may be to preserve existing river uses. A
good example of this is the minimum project outflow. Some operating requirements may
be established to obtain benefits for uses other than power, for example, minimum
outflows may be established to provide water for irrigation or for downstream navigation.
Minimum reservoir elevations may be established to permit navigation or recreation on
the reservoir. Flood control operation of typical Pacific Northwest reservoirs results in
some of the most complex operating requirements. These usually vary both seasonally
and with forecasts of runoff.
To the extent these requirements are established during the design phase, they are
taken into account in the studies which determine the feasibility of the project. After a
project begins operating, additional operating requirements may have to be established,
possibly because some effect of operations was overlooked in the design phase or
because conditions have changed.
While some requirements are very definite, for example, those based on the physical
characteristics of the project, others may be simply a priority of use. Frequently,
non-power requirements can be met without adversely impacting power production.
However, when similar requirements are applied to many FCRPS projects, meeting them
all may become impossible. Some requirements are more definite, while others express
a desire for a certain operation if it is possible without impacting other uses.
F33
Annual Spill Plans
Until mainstem Columbia and Snake River projects are properly screened to protect fish
runs, the Council's Fish and Wildlife Program calls for spills of water to carry fish over
dams instead of letting the fish pass through the turbines. Enough spill must be
provided to protect at least 90 percent of the young fish at each project through the
middle 80 percent of the runs. The Program calls for project owners and operators to
develop and implement spill plans. These plans list percentages of spill for specific
projects. Development and implementation of spill plans are multi-party efforts involving
fishery agencies and tribes and project owners and operators.
BPA and fishery agencies and tribes have developed a 10-year spill agreement which
would set forth spills at specific projects pending completion of other acceptable bypass
methods.
Water Budget
The Northwest Power Act gave BPA significant new responsibilities to mitigate the
effects of the development and operation of the FCRPS on fish and wildlife. These
activities are conducted with the guidance of the Northwest Power Planning Council's
Fish and Wildlife Program. One of the first measures taken by BPA and hydro project
operators to carry out the Council's first Program was the implementation of the first
Water Budget in 1983. BPA treats the Water Budget as a firm operating constraint that
allows for the Fish Passage Managers to request certain levels of flow in the Columbia
and Snake Rivers between April 15 and June 15 to help juvenile salmon and steelhead
achieve their downstream migration to the sea. For the Water Budget, water is reserved
in the reservoirs and is released, either through the turbines or as spill, depending on
the demand for energy, at times and in quantities as specified by the Fish Passage
Managers within the guidelines of the Water Budget plan. The Water Budget results in
an amount of Firm Energy Load Carrying Capability (FELCC) to be produced in the April
15 to June 15 period which is in excess of the demand for firm energy. It results in an
overall decrease in the amount of firm power which can be produced to meet the
region's firm loads. This decrease is borne collectively by the Coordination Agreement
parties. Affected parties, including BPA, attempt to store the excess firm energy from
April 15 to June 15 outside the Columbia River Basin or market it.
Flow Augmentation
The NWPPC's Phase II Amendments to the Fish and Wildlife Program call for an
expanded water budget operation on the Snake River and an operational water budget
on the Columbia River to be used in conjunction with the existing water budget volume.
The existing water budget of 3.45 million acre-feet (MAF) is still available in the
Columbia for spring time flow augmentation. For poor to moderate water years, the
Phase II amendments call for the storage of an additional volume of water. The amount
to store varies based on the January - July runoff volume forecast and can not exceed 3
MAF. The water is stored at Grand Coulee and Arrow.
F34
For poor water years, the Phase II Amendments call for an increase in water budget
volume at Dworshak of 900 thousand acre-feet (KAF) in excess of minimum flows during
May and June. In addition, the four lower Snake projects are to operate within one foot
of minimum operating pool elevations during the migration period. At John Day the
desired operation is near one foot of minimum irrigation elevation.
Refill
Each year, Coordinated System Operations endeavor to refill reservoirs each summer to
what is referred to in the Coordination Agreement as "normal top elevation." Operations
during the year are constantly analyzed in light of best available data to check their
effect on probability of refill.
F35
SECTION 2
Pacific Northwest Hydropower System
Planning and Operation
Introduction
The Pacific Northwest depends on its hydroelectric power system for a large percentage
of its electric power needs. The amount of runoff in this system is highly variable. The
average annual runoff is about 134 million acre-feet (MAF), but in the past has varied
from a low of about 78 MAF to a high of 193 MAF. The monthly mean streamflow
(unregulated), as measured at the Dalles, Oregon, can range from 40,000 cubic feet per
second (cfs) in January to 1,240,000 cfs in May.
The hydro system consists of many "run-of-river" projects with limited daily or weekly
storage, and a few much larger "seasonal storage" projects whose storage may be
drawn upon over a year or more before emptying or refilling. Since streamflows do not
occur in the same pattern as electric energy requirements, the water is used as a
storage medium for potential energy. The streamflow pattern is regulated into a more
usable shape by controlling project outflow to store energy when natural streamflows
exceed load requirements, and to release stored energy as needed. The total storage
capacity of the system is only about 42 MAF, nearly half of which is located in Canada.
The Canadian portion of the storage is operated by BC Hydro, with the U.S. rights
determined by the Columbia River Treaty. Because of the low storage capacity
compared with runoff, the hydro system has the potential of producing about
12,000 average megawatts (aMW) of energy as "firm" during low runoff conditions. It
can generate about 16,000 aMW on a long-term average basis, and about 19,000 aMW
in a high runoff year. This means that in planning the coming year there is an additional
unknown factor; up to 7,000 aMW of nonfirm energy that may or may not be available.
Seasonal Planning
The operational planning of Pacific Northwest hydro system is based on the Pacific
Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA). The PNCA is a contract among the parties
to that agreement that defines how planning and operation of the hydro system is carried
out on a coordinated basis. The Treaty reservoir storage space in Canada is included in
the PNCA planning process and is operated to rule curves and refill requirements similar
to other Pacific Northwest reservoirs. Planning is based on the "critical period," which is
that period using the historical streamflow data base during which the hydro system can
produce the least amount of power while drafting the water in the reservoirs allocated to
power from full to empty. The amount of power produced under critical water conditions
is called "firm." The critical period itself is most often defined as the 42 months of low
streamflow from September 1, 1928, through February 29, 1932. This represents the
level of risk that the regional utilities have contractually agreed upon under the PNCA in
relying on the hydro system to produce firm energy. Since flows are usually better than
what occurs under critical water conditions, the amount of additional power produced is
called "nonfirm." If all the runoff could be stored in any streamflow runoff year, as is the
F36
case with some other large hydro power systems in the U.S., the hydro system could
always produce an average amount of power, and firm energy would be based on
average runoff.
The flexibility of the hydro system to "shape" generation to meet load is limited by many
requirements. Requirements modeled in the planning process include upper storage
limits for flood control or recreation, project minimum and maximum outflows, tailwater
restrictions, spills of water from dams to transport juvenile fish around (rather than
through) the turbines, and the water set aside for increased streamflows to aid in the
downstream migration of fish (the Water Budget). While meeting these and other
requirements, hydro system flexibility is used wherever possible for power operations.
By drafting reservoirs earlier in the year to meet higher loads, energy is shifted forward
in time, or "borrowed" from the future, up to certain limits. While thermal plants are
meeting base loads, the hydro system is meeting both base and peak loads. Nighttime
requirements on the ability to refill plants that have storage capability further limit the
system. Operational requirements limit the ability to shift firm energy within the critical
period. These requirements place limits on the amount of reservoir drawdown permitted
at certain times during the year.
In planning for each coming operating year, Northwest utilities prepare a critical period
study in accordance with the PNCA. This study defines certain operational parameters
called critical rule curves under which the system will operate. A critical rule curve for a
reservoir is a schedule of the end-of-month storage contents attained by that reservoir in
the critical period study. Critical rule curves are designed to protect the ability of the
hydro system to serve firm load with the occurrence of flows no worse than those of the
critical period. For each reservoir, there is a set of four rule curves showing storage
contents, one rule curve for each year from July 1928, through June 1932. The critical
period study shows how the system would operate if all the loads and resources were in
place as forecasted and the historical critically low streamflows reoccur. The study also
defines the amount of load the system can serve on a firm basis (the firm energy load
carrying capability, or FELCC). Operationally, the system reservoirs are drafted
proportionately with respect to each reservoirs critical rule curves under noncritical, but
highly variable, streamflow conditions.
Operations
The critical rule curves are used along with reservoir refill requirements to develop the
generation needed to meet the FELCC regardless of the amount of streamflow that
actually occurs. For example, if the flows during the given month are less than the flows
used in the critical period study, the system reservoirs would be drafted proportionately
according to each reservoir's critical rule curves taking into consideration each project's
refill probability. If the flows are higher, but the reservoirs are lower than the rule
curves, then the reservoirs could be proportionately filled to the rule curve while meeting
firm loads. If the system is surplus when compared with critical water conditions, then
nonfirm energy would be offered to displace higher cost Northwest thermal resources,
exported out of the region, stored in reservoirs, or spilled. Note, however, that the
Northwest under the PNCA would not draft the reservoirs below their rule curves to
F37
serve nonfirm markets because that would jeopardize the system's ability to meet its
FELCC in the remainder of the operating year. In addition, this would also impair the
ability of the system to refill all reservoirs by July 31 of each year.
Ideally, the system refills each summer. By late summer, in most years, the snowpack in
the region has melted, causing the streamflows to recede sharply. In order to continue
meeting FELCC, reservoirs must be drafted. In some years, climatic conditions are such
that the system is surplus and some nonfirm energy is available in the fall or early
winter. In January, the first snowpack measurements and the first forecasts of the
January through July runoff are made. Flood control curves are developed to prevent
flooding in the spring and refill requirements are developed so as to insure that firm
loads are met and system reservoirs are refilled by July 31. This would not be difficult if
accurate forecasts of the January through July runoff were available. However, the
January forecast is based on actual snowpack and projected precipitation through July.
The future precipitation can vary greatly from projections and since most storage
reservoirs and drainage areas are relatively remote, little accurate data are available on
the amount of snowpack loss or gain between snowpack surveys. Even with January
through July runoff projections updated monthly, a project may run at maximum
generation one month for flood control, and then because of an unexpectedly low
snowpack measurement, be run at minimum the next month in order to refill. The closer
to July, the more accurate the forecast, since less of it is based on future precipitation.
Unfortunately, if a reservoir is drafted too much early in the season based on a high
projected runoff, it may be impossible to refill if precipitation is much below normal.
Likewise, if it is not drafted enough, flood control will force water to be spilled, a loss that
can run to tens of thousands of dollars per hour. With an annual runoff that varies
between about 60 percent and 145 percent of normal and limited storage space, hydro
operations is really a continual balancing act between maximizing revenues and the
need to refill annually for recreation, fisheries, and to assure future energy needs.
Differences Between Hydro and Thermal Systems
A major difference between hydro and thermal systems is the time it takes to bring
generation on line. A thermal plant can require hours, or even days, to reach maximum
output, while hydro units can be brought on line in a few minutes. A coal or nuclear
plant is limited in its ability to ramp up or down, while a hydro system can usually call
upon a large number of units to be brought on line singly or in groups. A thermal plant's
fuel supply can be controlled within certain limits while there is very limited control over
the hydro system's "fuel" due to variations in the amount of the spring runoff, or the
runoff from sudden rainstorms or snowmelts. Moreover, as previously discussed there
are significant restrictions on the ability of the hydro resource to generate power
because of the need to refill reservoirs, the requirements to maintain specific elevations
for flood control, wildlife, recreation, navigation, or irrigation; and the requirement to
provide flows for fish migration, recreation, and navigation.
F38
Appendix F.
Part 4. PNW Resource Operation Results
Section 1: Discussion of Resource Operation Impacts
Section 2: Supporting Data Tables
F39
Resource Operation Impacts
Overview
Contract types and intertie use alternatives modeled in the NFPeis affect the
operation of resources in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), Canada (BCH), and the
Pacific Southwest (PSW). This appendix discusses those operational impacts.
Study results are presented in three major categories related to contract type.
Twenty-one different scenarios were modeled and tested with the SAM. This
discussion combines alternatives into those that include seasonal exchange
(SE) contracts, those that include power sale (PS) contracts, and those that
represent combinations of both PS and SE contracts. Operational impacts for
the federal marketing (FM), capacity ownership (CO), and assured delivery (AD)
alternatives are identified for each of the three regions noted above. For BCH,
the impact is changes in generation associated with increased exports from
Canada to the PNW and PSW. For the PNW, the analysis considers changes in
hydro, coal, and combustion turbine generation used to serve regional and PSW
loads. For the PSW, information concerning the change in PSW resource
operation due to the added import and export contracts as well as economy
energy purchases from the PNW and BCH is considered.
SAM generated operational data for each alternative is presented in a series of
tables at the end of this appendix. Table 1 provides the operational data for the
no action (NA) case in average megawatts (aMW). The remaining tables
contain data for each of the alternatives presented in three separate formats.
The main table contains the total generation in aMW for each category. A
second table (labeled subtable A) presents the data in percentage changes from
the NA case. A third table (labeled subtable B) shows the differences from the
NA case in aMW. The A and B subtables are helpful in maintaining a proper
perspective. In some instances, the change in aMW appears quite large yet it
represents a small change relative to the total amount. The opposite condition
can also exist. Consequently, both subtables provide information useful in
determining the relative impact of any given alternative.
Data for each region is presented under the high and low load forecasts on a
monthly basis with the lad column showing the annual average. The first
section identifies PNW generation data for hydro, coal, and combustion turbines
(CT). As part of the 'bounding' procedure (see Appendix B) applied to air quality
impacts, coal and CT operation is also presented under conditions of low water
and high water. Sales to the PSW consist of two categories. The first is
economy or spot market sales from the PNW and BCH to the PSW. The net
export sales category adds in the amounts of additional firm contracts
associated with the alternative including any generation that the PSW needs to
F40
serve return provisions, such as those with SE contracts. BCH data consists of
spot market sales to the PNW and to the PSW.
Seasonal Exchange Alternatives
The seasonal exchange (SE) alternatives include the federal marketing case A
(FMA) and the assured delivery (AD) and capacity ownership (CO) cases with
the intertie allocated 100 percent to the public agencies (AD1 and CO1) and
cases with the intertie allocated 52 percent to the publics and 48 percent to
investor owned utilities (AD5 and CO5). This grouping also includes
combinations of FMA and CO1, CO5, AD1, and AD5. The combinations are
included because BPA is attempting to mitigate the impact associated with
increased fish related flow requirements through additional federal marketing
arrangements and at the same time is committed to either expanding the
assured delivery amounts or offering capacity ownership. See Appendix B for a
discussion of each of the alternatives.
Federal Marketing Case A (FMA)
Contracts included in this case are designed to sell required fish related flows
during their release and have the energy that was delivered returned to BPA
during those months when BPA needs it. A power sale contract during May and
June is combined with a capacity/energy exchange contract during July through
September to create a contract package that could be desirable to PSW parties.
The May/June energy along with the exchange energy associated with the July
through September contract is returned to BPA in equal amounts during October
through March.
For the PNW, the NA case had a load/resource balance with high loads and a
resource surplus under low loads. For the FMA case, the exchange energy
returned to BPA changes the load/resource situation under high loads to one of
surplus resources and increases the existing surplus under low loads.
Consequently, for the FMA case, there is a reduction in PNW hydro, coal, and
combustion turbine generation on an annual average basis over both high and
low load forecasts (see Table 2-B). There is a shift in the monthly generation
patterns due to the seasonal nature of the FMA contracts. As expected, there is
a reduction in PNW generation during the winter months when the PSW returns
the energy. There is also an increase in PNW generation during May and June.
This last result does not necessarily imply that the additional flows during May
and June are not capable of producing enough energy to make the 1100 aMW
firm sale. In the NA case, as much of the fish related flow as possible is sold as
economy energy. In the FMA case, as much as 1100 aMW of the fish flow
related energy could be used to serve the firm contract to the PSW. As a result
of this sale, there is a reduction in the amount of economy energy available for
sale during May and June. There is a reduction in economy energy sales to the
F41
PSW during May and June. This reduction is, however, less than 1100 aMW
and generates a result where total sales (economy plus firm) to the PSW are
larger than in the HA case. Increases in PNW generation in the FMA case could
be related to those increased sales to the PSW and/or it could be related to a
reduction in the amount of generating resources displaced because of reduced
availability of economy energy. In any event, the result is related to the attempt
to firm up the use of the augmented fish related flows.
Operationally, intertie capacity and the size of the PSW market available for
economy energy transactions during May and June are reduced by the amount
of the firm contract. The size of the PSW market faced by the northern entities
increases during October through March because generation can be sold to
displace PSW generation needed to serve the returns. The data in Table 2-B
shows an increase in economy energy sales to the PSW during the winter
months and a decrease in sales during May and June. There is an increase in
economy energy sales to the PSW on an annual basis under both high and low
load forecasts. The net impact on the PSW, taking into consideration economy
energy sales as well as the additional firm contracts, is shown in Table 2-B as
Net Export Sales. Due to returns of energy made by the PSW, the region
becomes a net exporter on an annual average basis even with the increased
economy energy sales. The PSW must increase its generation during the winter
to serve the return requirements. There is a reduction in PSW generation during
May and June but not enough to offset increased generation in other months.
Sales of economy energy by BCH do not change by a significant amount on an
annual average basis. Monthly changes in BCH sales are due to the changing
relationship between the PSW and PNW markets as a result of the FMA
contracts.
Capacity Ownership (CO)
The capacity ownership case transferred 725 W of intertie capacity to non-
Federal owners. The allocations were 1000h to the publics (PUB) (CO1) and
52%/48% PUB/investor owned utilities (IOU), respectively (CO5). In the
seasonal exchange case, the 725 MW was filled with a contract delivered to the
PSW during June through September and returned from the PSW during
November through March. The net effect of this contract on the load/resource
balance is zero on an annual basis. Any increase in the monthly load of the
PUBs was allowed to be placed on BPA since there would be reductions in the
PUB load during those months where the energy was returned.
Tables 3 and 4 present the SAM results for the CO1 and CO5 cases. A
comparison of these two cases indicates that there are no significant differences
on an annual average basis. Under high loads, there is a slight increase in
hydro generation and a reduction in the annual operation of CTs. Hydro and
F42
coal generation under low loads is reduced in both cases. Increases in average
annual CT generation under conditions of low loads are related to spot market
sales to the PSW. With the value of the PSW market based on a forecast of
high gas prices, there are opportunities for economic sales of CT output,
especially under conditions of low water.
The monthly changes in generation follow the same pattern as those in the FMA
case. Generation tends to increase during those periods of delivery (June
through September) and decrease during periods of return. On a monthly basis,
differences between CO1 and CO5 relate to what kind of generation was
operated or displaced. During November through February, the CO5 case
makes more sales south instead of reducing CT operation as in the CO1 case.
This result is related to the assumption in the SAM that BPA is limited in the
prices it can charge for economy energy by its rate schedule. In the CO1 case,
the power returned to the BPA system (in the form of reduced PUB net
requirements) has a greater value in the displacement of PNW CT operation. In
CO5, a portion of the power coming from the PSW goes to the IOUs that are not
rate constrained. For them, the best deal is to sell additional power to the PSW
and leave some of the CTs running. This result is also related to the high valued
PSW market assumed in these studies.
Similar to the FMA case, intertie capacity and the size of the PSW market
available for economy energy transactions are reduced during periods of
delivery and increased during periods of return. On an annual average basis,
under both high and low loads, there is a decrease in the amount of economy
energy sales and a concomitant increase in the amount of generation that the
PSW must commit in returning the power to the PNW., However, the PSW may
see annual operational benefits because they are net importers during the
spring, summer and early fall which covers the PSW high demand periods.
The reduction in the amount of intertie available and the change in the size of
the market affects BCHs ability to sell economy energy to the PSW. However,
the increased load in the PNW increases the market for BCH power. Under both
load forecasts, there is an increase in the amount of economy energy sold on an
annual basis to the PNW and a decrease in the amount sold to the PSW. The
net impact on the BCH system is relatively small.
Assured Delivery (AD)
The assured delivery case increased the amount of space on the intertie
allocated to assured delivery contracts by 725 MW. This increased AD space
was allocated between utility groups in the same manner as the CO cases;
100% to the PUBs (AD1) and 52%/48% PUB/IOU, respectively (AD5). The
modeling of the AD cases in the SAM is almost identical to the modeling of the
CO cases. The only difference is who gets access to the 725 MW when it is not
F43
filled with an assured delivery contract. In the CO case, the owner has the rights
to their share of the intertie at all times, whether they use it or not. In the AD
cases, a given contract is moved down the intertie during the hours that it is
scheduled. During those hours or months that no AD contract is scheduled, the
intertie space reverts back to BPA and it is allocated for use according to the
provisions of the Long Term Intertie Access Policy (LTIAP). If the AD contract
was for 12 months of the year, 24 hours a day, then there would be no difference
between the CO and AD case modeling. In the seasonal exchange contract
case there are some months when no AD contract is using the 725 MW of
intertie space.
Tables 5 and 6 present the SAM results for the AD1 and AD5 cases. There are
no significant operational differences between AD1 and AD5 on an annual basis.
The monthly changes in generation follow the same pattern as those in the FMA
and CO cases. Generation tends to increase during those periods of delivery
(June through September) and decrease during periods of return. On a monthly
basis, differences between AD1 and AD5 relate to what kind of generation was
operated or displaced. These monthly changes are similar to those exhibited in
the, CO cases and occur for the same reasons.
One difference between the AD impact relative to the NA case and the CO
impact relative to the NA case is CT operation under low loads with low water.
In the AD cases, annual CT operation under low loads and water is less than in
the NA case. CT Operation in the CO cases under similar conditions was greater
than in the NA case. This reflects the impact of owning a portion of the intertie
versus receiving an allocation under provisions of the LTIAP. Under low loads,
where the region is surplus, utilities who had ownership rights in the CO cases
may not receive as large an allocation of the available intertie under the AD
cases as under the CO cases. With low water conditions, surplus resources are
mainly thermal and reduced access to the PSW market through a lower intertie
allocation would cause a reduction in the operation of thermal resources to serve
the market. CTs are the most expensive thermal resource and are generally the
marginal resource when serving the PSW market. Consequently, economy
energy sales to the PSW are slightly lower and CT operation is lower in the AD
cases than in the CO cases. The impact on SCM is relatively small in the AD
cases as well as the CO cases.
Alternative Combinations
Those alternatives representing combinations of AD and CO seasonal exchange
contracts and the FMA case were studied with the SAM. These combinations
(FMACO1, FMACO5, FMAAD1, and FMAAD5) consider the operational effects
of combining increased federal marketing with increased nonfederal use of the
intertie.
F44
Operational impacts from the SAM are shown in Tables 7 - 10. On an annual
average basis, generation in the PNW is reduced in all cases relative to the NA
case and relative to each of the cases on an individual basis. Combining the
FMA contracts and CO or AD seasonal exchange contracts provides for a larger
reduction of generation during those periods when the PSW returns the power.
This allows for the hydro system to use its flexibility so that generation in other
months can also be reduced resulting in a larger annual decrease. The
combined contracts also reduce the PSW economy energy market so that there
are not as many opportunities to sell thermal energy south as under the CO or
AD cases individually.
The monthly operational changes still show the expected impacts associated
with seasonal exchange contracts. Reduced generation during periods of return
and some increase in generation during those periods of delivery. Combining
the FMA with CO1/AD1 or CO5/AD5 does not change the monthly differences
associated with intertie ownership alternatives. The 52%/48% PUB/IOU split
cases still tend to displace fewer CTs during the winter months than the 100%
PUB cases. The reasons already noted (see section D.2.2) are not sensitive to
whether BPA increases the amount of federal marketing in conjunction with
capacity ownership or assured delivery. The reduction in the available market
for economy energy sales does change the CT operation differences between
the CO and AD cases under conditions of low loads and water. When combined
with the FMA case, both the CO and AD cases reduce CT operation under the
conditions noted. However, it is still the case that CT operation under those
conditions is less with AD than CO.
For the PSW, there is no difference in the annual operational impact associated
with any of the four combined alternatives considered. The PSW remains a net
exporter of power to the PNW. When comparing the PSW results in the
combined alternatives with the individual cases, it is seen that in all of the four
cases the amount of the net export under high loads remains the same as in the
individual FMA case. Under low loads, however, the PSW is more of a net
exporter than under any of the other cases when treated separately. The
combined exchange and FMA contracts reduce the market for economy energy
sales during delivery to the PSW and increase displacement opportunities
during return from the PSW to such an extent that the month to month sales to
and returns from the PSW are considerably larger than under any of the
individual cases. Combining FMA with CO or AD does not alter the monthly
variations in service to the PSW market noted in the individual cases. There are
still larger changes in sales to the PSW on a monthly basis in the CO cases than
the AD cases and these differences still disappear on an annual average basis.
BCHs ability to sell power on the spot market to the PNW or the PSW does not
change significantly under the combined cases. While quite small, BCH does
see more variation in sales on an annual average basis under the AD cases
F45
than under the CO cases. This result is not different from that seen in the
individual cases and would lead to the conclusion that capacity ownership or
assured delivery combined with federal marketing has little effect on BCHs
ability to sell in the economy energy market.
Power Sale Alternatives
The power sales (PS) alternatives include the federal marketing case B (FMB)
and the capacity ownership (CO) cases with the intertie allocated 100 percent to
the PUBs (CO1) and cases with the intertie allocated 52 percent to the PUBs
and 48 percent to the IOUs (CO5). This grouping also includes combinations of
FMB and CO1 and CO5. Because there is no difference between the SAM
modeling of the firm contract under CO and AD conditions, the AD cases were
not necessary to consider. The results associated with the CO cases apply to
the AD cases (see section D.2.3).
Federal Marketing Case B (FMB)
The FMB case is a companion to the FMA case. Both cases assess the impacts
associated with increased federal marketing over the intertie. The FMA case
considered contracts and operating strategies that were placed entirely upon the
federal system. The attempt there was to create a combination of contracts that
would appeal to the PSW and provide BPA with the opportunity to sell the
increased fish related water. The design of the FMB case is based on a joint
venture type of contract. It is assumed that some entity other than BPA wants to
access the PSW with a firm annual contract. In providing access to the intertie,
BPA joins in the agreement and supplies the firm contract to the PSW during the
May and June and requests that the energy delivered during those months be
returned to BPA in equal amounts from October through March. This portion of
the agreement is the same as that included in the FMA case and it allows BPA
sell the fish related water flows during May and June and have them returned
during a period of greater need. The PSW gets a firm contract all year and
needs to return the power received during May and June during off peak
periods. While the FMB case is not strictly a firm power sale, it resembles one
in many aspects and is, therefore, included in the firm power sale discussion.
Operational impacts for the FMB case are provided in Table 11. These results
need to be considered in light of the resource assumptions included in the FMB
case. The entity requesting access to the intertie was not identified in this case
and no resource acquisition assumptions were made for the SAM modeling.
Joint venture proposals could come from entities outside of the region, such as
BCH, or from inside the region. The resources used to supply these contracts
could be resources that, from a regional standpoint, would not be considered
dispatchable. Cogeneration resources, for example, are considered by the SAM
to be non-dispatchable or unable to be controlled by the generation system.
F46
Resources based in another region would also not be dispatchable. The 1100
aMW joint venture contract assumed in the FMB case represents a potentially
large number of smaller joint venture contracts served with a variety of different
resources. The intent of the FMB case is to assess the impact on the region of
giving up access to 1100 aMW of intertie capacity that is currently available for
economy energy transactions and to consider the impact on the region due to
the reduced market for regional power. The FMB case also considers the impact
associated with the marketing and return of fish related flows on the regional
hydro system.
The return of the energy from the PSW and the loss in economy sales due to the
smaller market available for economy energy causes a general reduction in the
annual average energy generated in the PNW. Reduced generation is noticed
generally in all months except May and June. Under conditions of low water
there is an increase in CT generation during June that could be related to the
sale by BPA. It could also be related to the fact that the economy energy sales
to the PSW do not reduce by a full 1100 aMW and some of the CT operation
could be used to serve sales to the PSW. With the assumed high valued PSW
market, the latter case is most likely.
The, PSW becomes a net importer with the delivery of an 1100 aMW contract.
There is a reduction in economy energy sales on an annual basis under both
high and low loads. The reduction in economy energy sales is larger under low
loads because she region has a surplus and the smaller available market means
that less of the surplus can be sold. Under conditions of high loads there is less
economy energy to sell so the smaller market has less of an impact.
Once again, the alternative creates little impact upon BCH. There is an overall
reduction in the sales of economy energy on an annual basis under both low and
high loads. Because of the surplus in the PNW under low loads and the
reduced PSW market, BCH takes the greatest loss in sales to the PSW under
conditions of low loads.
Capacity Ownership (CO)
The capacity ownership case transferred 725 MW of intertie capacity to non-
Federal owners. The allocation alternatives were 100% to the PUB (CO1) and
52%/48% PUB/IOU, respectively (CO5). In the power sale case, the allocation
of the intertie for each group (CO1 and CO5) was filled with a firm power
contract delivered 12 months a year, 24 hours a day. The contract was
assumed to be served with the addition of a generic CT equal in size to the
contract.
Tables 12 and 13 present the SAM results for the CO1 and CO5 cases. A
comparison indicates that there are no significant differences between CO1 and
F47
CO5 on an annual average basis. Under high loads there is a slight increase in
hydro generation and about a 20 percent increase in CT generation compared to
the NA case. The increase in CT generation is evident in both cases under all
load and water conditions. This increase is related to serving the new firm
contract. The increase is greater in the CO5 case than the CO1 case for the
same ownership and rate limitation reasons that these cases varied in the SE
cases (see section D.2.2). Under low loads there is a decrease in hydro
generation on an annual basis. BPA prices the firm surplus in the low load case
at the firm surplus rate. The projections of the surplus firm rate included in the
SAM are somewhat above the operating cost of the new high efficient CTs
added to serve the additional load. Consequently, the increased load is served
with additional CT operation that is not displaced by hydro generation because it
has a higher cost. Another reason for this reduction in hydro generation is due
to the reduction in the PSW market resulting from the firm contracts and the loss
The impact on the PSW is similar to that under the FMB case. The PSW
becomes a net importer under both high and low loads because of the firm
contract. While there is a reduction in economy energy sales because of the
reduced market, the reduction is less than the additional amount delivered under
contract. It is also the case in this alternative that the loss in economy energy
sales is greater under low loads because the reduced market causes more of an
effect when the region is surplus. The differences in economy energy sales
between the CO1 and CO5 cases are not as large as those occurring in the SE
cases. It is still the case however, that more economy energy is sold to the PSW
under CO5 than CO1 reflecting resource ownership of the participants.
Because of the increase in PNW firm load, there is increased opportunity for
economy energy sales from BCH. There is a slight increase in sales by BCH to
the PNW. However, the reduced availability of the PSW economy energy
market causes BCH to reduce sales to the PSW. Both of these changes are
relatively small.
Alternative Combinations
Those alternatives representing combinations of CO and the FMB cases were
studied with the SAM. These combinations (FMBCO1 and FMBCO5) consider
the operational effects of combining increased federal marketing with increased
nonfederal use of the intertie.
Results for these two combinations are presented in Tables 14 and 15. These
combinations of contract types show the largest impact of any of the NFPeis
alternatives considered. The combined joint venture and power sale contracts
reduce the PSW market by 1825 aMW during months of delivery and this
amount is reduced by 445 aMW when the PSW returns to BPA its portion of the
F48
joint venture contract. In both alternatives there is a reduction in hydro and coal
generation and an increase in CT generation under both load forecast
sensitivities. Hydro and coal generation is reduced because of the reduced
PSW market. Under low loads, the reduction is larger because of the surplus
situation. Resources normally sold to the PSW are not operated because the
market has declined. CT operation increases in all cases. This result is due to
the low cost of new high efficiency gas fired combined cycle combustion
turbines. The PSW market is still favorable to a low cost resource such as that.
The new CT is lower cost than some of the existing high cost coal facilities in the
region. This is why coal displacement occurs and CT generation increases
relative to the NA case. Compared with the CO cases considered above, CT
generation is less. This is also due to the larger market reduction in these
cases.
In both cases, the PSW is a net importer of power. There are reductions in the
amount of economy energy sold to the PSW. As before, this reduction is larger
for the low loads case and where the intertie is allocated entirely to the PUBs.
The largest reduction in economy energy sales occurs during May and June.
This reduction is still less than the total change in deliveries to the PSW. During
those months, there is an increase in generation in the PNW that is used to
serve the contracts and the economy energy contracts. As before, it is likely that
some portion of the increase was to support the sale of fish related flows by
BPA.
Economy energy sales to the PNW by BCH have increased under both load
sensitivities for both combinations. The increased load in the PNW creates a
larger market for BCH sales. The reduced PSW market however, reduces BCHs
ability to sell. Consequently, there is a reduction in sales by BCH to the PSW.
There is no significant difference in BCH sales to either market associated with
either of the two cases considered.
Combined Seasonal Exchange (SE)/Power Sale (PS) Alternatives
This section considers six additional combinations of alternatives. These
alternatives were also constructed because of the likelihood that BPA will pursue
some combination of the federal marketing alternative and the capacity
ownership or assured delivery alternatives. The first group combines the federal
marketing case A with the capacity ownership alternative with a firm power sale
(FMACO1 and FMACO5). The second group combines the federal marketing
case B with the capacity ownership cases with seasonal exchange contracts
(FMBCO1, FMBCO5), and the third group combines the federal marketing case
B with assured delivery cases-with seasonal exchange contracts (FMBAD1, and
FMBAD5).
F49
Federal Marketing Case A With Capacity Ownership; Power Sale
The assured delivery case is not considered in this combination separately
because the assured delivery case is no different than the capacity ownership
cases with respect to the modeling in the SAM (see section D.2.3).
The SAM generated operational impacts for these two alternatives are presented
in Tables 16 and 17. Because of the addition of the relatively inexpensive CT to
serve the increase in firm load, the combined FMACO cases more closely
resemble the CO case than the FMA case. In both load scenarios, over both
cases, there is an increase in CT generation and a reduction in coal and hydro
operation on an annual average basis. The reductions in coal and hydro
generation are slightly greater than that in the CO cases and the increase in CT
generation is less than in the CO cases. The addition of the seasonal exchange
characteristics of the FMA contracts lessens the need for increased CT
generation. On a month by month basis, the returns to BPA from the PSW tend
to create changes in hydro and coal generation that resemble the FMA changes
under high loads. Under low loads, the returns and the reduced PSW market,
combined with the inexpensive CT, causes much larger monthly variation in
hydro and coal generation. CT generation does not vary from the monthly
pattern seen in the CO cases. In May and June, the FMACO cases see an
increase in generation over both the FMA case or the CO cases. This increase
is related to the addition of the firm contract combined with the fish flow related
firm contract in the FMA case.
The impact on the PSW is similar to that under the CO case. The PSW
becomes a net importer under both high and low loads on an annual average
basis because of the firm contract. With the seasonal exchange returns, there
are months where the PSW is a net exporter While there is a reduction in
economy energy sales because of the reduced market, the reduction is less than
the additional amount delivered under contract. It is also the case that the loss
in economy energy sales is greater under low loads because the reduced market
causes more of an effect when the region is surplus. It is still the case, however,
that more economy energy is sold to the PSW under FMACO5 than FMACO1,
reflecting resource ownership of the participants.
Under high loads, BCH sees a small reduction in sales to the PNW and virtually
no change in sales to the PSW on an annual average basis. Under low loads,
the change in BCH economy energy sales to the PNW and the PSW is almost
identical to those that occurred in the CO cases with power sales contracts.
Federal Marketing Case B With Capacity Ownership; Seasonal Exchange
Tables 18 and 19 provide the SAM results from the FMBCO1 and FMBCO5
cases. Similar to the other alternatives considered, there is very little difference
F50
between the two cases on an annual average basis. Both cases experience a
reduction in all types of resource generation under both load sensitivities
because of the large reduction in the PSW market due to the added contracts
and the return of energy associated with the BPA portion of the joint venture
contract. The decrease is larger under low loads because of the surplus. The
change in annual PNW generation in the combined case is almost identical to
the sum of the changes in the individual alternatives. This implies that there are
no additional impacts due to any interaction between the alternatives. Monthly
variations in generation are also similar to those experienced in the individual
FMB and CO seasonal exchange cases when added together. Generation tends
to decrease during the winter months due to the return of energy and the
reduced market and increases during the spring and summer because of the
delivery of energy to the PSW.
The PSW remains a net importer under either load forecast. There is a
reduction in the sales of economy energy with the reduction being more
pronounced in the low loads case. This is again related to the sensitivity of
economy energy sales during periods of surplus. Monthly impacts on the PSW
market also match the combined impacts of the CO seasonal exchange cases
and the FMB case. There is an increase in economy energy sales during the
winter months when the energy is returned to the PNW from the PSW. This
increase is greater in the high load case than in the low load case and the effect
is larger in the FMBCO5 case than in the FMBCO1 case. Economy energy
sales decrease during the spring and summer when energy delivered is sent
under firm contract instead of as economy energy sales as in the NA case. The
reduction in economy energy sales during May and June is less than the
increase in the firm contracts. Consequently, there is an increase in generation
used to serve the 1100 aMW of joint venture sales and the 725 aMW exchange
contract.
Due to the changed load situation in the PNW and the reduction in the PSW
economy energy market, BCH is able to increase its economy energy sales to
the PNW and decreases sales to the PSW. This result is the same under both
load forecasts and is also approximately equal in effect to the sum of the
individual CO and FMA cases.
Federal Marketing Case B With Assured Delivery; Seasonal Exchange
The SAM results for the FMBAD1 and FMBAD5 seasonal exchange combined
cases are listed in Tables 20 and 21. The differences between the two cases
are negligible on an annual average basis. There is a reduction in PNW
generation in both cases over both load scenarios. There is slightly more CT
generation in the 52%/48% PUB/IOU allocation case than in the 100% PUB
intertie allocation case. This result varies with the load forecast and is most
visable on a monthly basis. Under high loads, during the winter months when
F51
the seasonal exchange energy and the energy to BPA associated with the joint
venture contract is returned, more resource displacement occurs in the 100%
PUB case. Given BPAs rate limitations for sales south and regional preference,
displacement represents the greater value use for the energy. Under the
52%/48% PUB/IOU allocation case, energy returned to the IOUs increases the
amount they have to market. Given that the IOUs are not rate constrained, they
tend to market more of the power to the PSW and there are fewer resources
displaced. Under low loads, the region is surplus with most of the surplus
residing on the federal system. The market to the PSW is fairly full such that the
additional energy returned to the system is not readily salable to the PSW and is
used for displacement purposes. Consequently, there is practically no
difference in regional generation between the 52%/48% PUB/IOU allocation
case and the 100% PUB intertie allocation case under low loads. This result is
also related to the fact that the FMB contracts have significantly reduced the
available economy energy market. This result is also evident in the FMBCO
cases described above and supports the differences between FMBCO1 and
FMBCO5.
There are essentially no annual average differences between these two FMBAD
cases and the FMBCO cases discussed above. There is a slightly lower amount
of generation in the FMBAD cases than in the FMBCO cases. This difference is
based on the potentially larger amounts of total intertie allocation available
under the CO cases than under the AD cases. These differences are more
noticeable on a monthly basis. During the winter, there are months where
generation in the CO case is higher than that in the AD case and there is an
associated increase in economy energy sales to the PSW. The results indicate
that under the FMBAD cases, resource displacement and sales to the PSW tend
to vary with the intertie allocation between parties. This is also the case for the
FMBCO cases but, the ownership option causes the variation in resource
operation and displacement to be even larger than that under the FMBAD cases.
The PSW remains a net importer under either load forecast. There is a
reduction in the sales of economy energy with the reduction being more
pronounced in the low loads case. This is again related to the sensitivity of
economy energy sales during periods of surplus. Given the above discussion, it
is no surprise that the reduction in spot market sales to the PSW is greater in the
FMBAD cases than in the FMBCO cases under conditions of high loads. Under
low loads, service to the PSW is essentially the same between the FMBAD
cases and the FMBCO cases.
Due to the changed load situation in the PNW and the reduction in the PSW
economy energy market, BCH is able to increase its economy energy sales to
the PNW only under low loads. In all other cases there is a reduction in sales by
BCH to the PSW and the PNW. This change is small, however.
F52
Summary
Seasonal Exchange Alternatives
Annual average operational impacts associated with the seasonal exchange
contract for each alternative are summarized in Charts 1-4. Under high loads,
PNW CT operation decreases from 12 to 128 aMW. The range in PNW coal
generation is from no change to a decline of 19 aMW. Regional hydro
generation ranges from a decrease of 6 aMW to an increase of 7 aMW. Total
sales to the PSW are reduced from 21 to 169 aMW. Economy energy sales
from BCH range from a 5 aMW increase to a 13 aMW decline.
Under low loads, PNW resource operation still does not change by much. PNW
CT generation ranges from an increase of 9 aMW to a decrease of 22 aMW.
The reduction in PNW coal generation ranges between 15 to 79 aMW. Hydro
generation decreases from 13 to 34 aMW. Total sales to the PSW are reduced
from 56 to 147 aMW and economy energy sales from BCH range from a positive
13 aMW to a negative 29 aMW.
On an operational basis, these results indicate that seasonal exchange contracts
tend to reduce PNW generation, reduce total sales to the PSW, thus, increasing
their generation, and, generally reduces the amount of economy energy sold by
BCH. The magnitude of these changes is relatively small. The results indicate
that while there are different impacts associated with each alternative, no single
alternative creates impacts that are significantly larger than any other
alternative. There are no interactions that occur when the cases are combined.
The combined results are basically the sum of the individual cases.
Power Sales Alternatives
The annual average operational results from the power sales cases are
summarized in Charts 5 - 8. These cases are not strictly comparable because of
the resource differences between FMB and the CO cases. The FMB case did
not include any additional generation to serve the new 1100 aMW load while the
CO cases assumed that the 725 aMW additional load was served with a generic
combined cycle combustion turbine.
Under high loads, the FMB case created within the PNW a 130 aMW reduction
in CT operation, a 58 aMW reduction in coal operation, and an 8 aMW reduction
in hydro operation compared to the NA case. Because of the 1100 aMW firm
sale, the PSW became a net importer of 714 aMW and BCH saw a 9 aMW
reduction in economy sales. Under low loads, the FMB case created within the
PNW a 30 aMW reduction in CT operation, a 174 aMW reduction in coal
operation, and a 167 aMW reduction in hydro operation. The PSW remained a
net importer of 532 aMW and BCH saw a 48 aMW reduction in economy sales.
F53
While there was no assumed increase in generation to serve the increased load,
the FMB results are still relevant. Potential joint venture contracts with BPA
could be signed with entities from outside the region (such as BCH). The
generation used to serve these contracts would not be part of the regional
resource base and as such may not be displaceable with any regional resources
with lower cost. If this were the case, resource operational changes in the PNW
would be related to reductions in the economy energy market in the PSW due to
the additional firm contract. This is the situation under the FMB case. If the
resource used to serve the joint venture contract was inside the region, but, had
operational characteristics such that the resource was not controllable, the
results of the FMB case would also apply. Resources with these characteristics
could be, for example, conservation or cogeneration associated with a
production process that operates all day, all year around. Output from the
cogeneration resource is related to business operation and not necessarily
related to the hourly or monthly generation needs of a power system. In terms of
the SAM modeling, the output from non-dispatchable resources is treated simply
as a load reduction and the dispatchable resources are then used to serve the
remaining load. Consequently, the SAM related results would not change.
For the CO and combined FMB/CO cases, CT generation increased because of
the additional resource used to serve the additional load. Under high loads,
PNW CT operation increases ranged from 288 to 454 aMW. The range in PNW
coal generation is from an increase of 6 aMW to a decline of 72 aMW. Regional
hydro generation ranges from a decrease of 8 aMW to an increase of $ aMW.
Due to the large export contracts to the PSW, total sales to the PSW increase
from 431 to 1222 aMW. Economy energy sales from BCH decrease from 7 to 27
aMW. Under low loads, PNW CT generation increases 209 to 311 aMW. The
reduction in PNW coal generation ranges between 22 to 219 aMW. Hydro
generation decreases between 60 to 249 aMW. Total sales to the PSW
increase from 204 to 768 aMW and economy energy sales from BCH decrease
27 to 75 aMW.
On an operational basis, the power sales cases see an increase in the
generation of the resource assumed to be acquired to serve the contract. The
increased operation is less than the full contract amount since some
displacement occurs. The variation in the results is directly related to the
resource assumptions included in each of the cases. As with the seasonal
exchange cases, the combined results are basically the sum of the individual
cases.
Combined Seasonal Exchange (SE)/Power Sale (PS) Alternatives
The results for those cases that combined the SE and PS contract types are
summarized in Charts 9 - 12. Once again, the combined impacts are
F54
approximately the same as the sum of the individual cases. For the federal
marketing case A combined with capacity ownership and power sales contracts,
PNW CT operation increased over both high and low loads, ranging from 256 to
347 aMW. This increase was again related to the addition of the low cost
combined cycle CT. Both coal and hydro generation in the PNW was reduced
under both load forecasts. The reduction ranged from 7 to 44 aMW for coal and
from 7 to 75 aMW for hydro. Net export sales to the PSW increased, ranging
from 207 to 393 aMW and economy energy sales from BCH decreased, ranging
from 2 to 26 aMW.
For those cases that combined the federal marketing case B with capacity
ownership or increased assured delivery and seasonal exchange contracts,
PNW generation was decreased in all cases. Hydro generation decreases
ranged from 1 to 213 aMW, coal generation decreases ranged from 59 to 243
aMW, and CT generation decreases ranged from 23 to 159 aMW. These
reductions are related to the loss of available PSW market due to the large
contract assumed in the FMB case and to resource displacement resulting from
the energy returned to BPA during the winter as part of the joint venture contract.
Net export sales to the PSW increased, ranging from 399 to 698 aMW and
economy energy sales from BCH decreased, ranging from 13 to 82 aMW.
F55
Table F-7
Table 1 No Action Case Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10793 11937 13268 16668 18910 18700 19679 20113 22654 21346 17531 13113 17059
Coal 5596 5653 5008 5719 5685 5606 4960 3778 3102 4012 4939 5707 5030
CT 3753 3663 3597 2818 2422 2320 1577 1355 42 690 1447 3188 2239
High Water Coal 5601 5644 5607 5721 5714 5710 4623 3442 2240 1794 3999 5733 4652
CT 4077 2710 2606 1975 1784 1690 760 408 0 0 101 2112 1518
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5750 5750 5750 5496 4572 4077 5326 5749 5750 5425
CT 4137 4079 4313 3895 4392 4432 4179 3918 153 2539 3963 4341 3695
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 12300 13054 15117 16604 18377 18028 17518 17885 20207 19091 16761 12835 16482
Coal 4352 4352 4195 4183 3983 3616 2996 2064 1283 1865 2691 4248 3319
CT 268 238 157 170 216 155 166 186 0 6 119 352 169
High Water Coal 4551 3595 3840 3875 3824 3336 2324 1376 861 972 973 3610 2761
CT 272 33 9 27 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 38 32
Low Water Coal 4595 4578 4574 4687 4774 4772 4520 3627 2698 3983 4769 4772 4362
CT 340 357 328 372 1222 1003 963 981 0 29 816 1011 619
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1391 1725 1741 2503 2840 3485 3680 4091 4417 4622 3860 2302 3054
Net Export Sales 1391 1725 1741 2503 2840 3485 3680 4091 4417 4622 3860 2302 3054
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3355 3656 4391 4728 5621 5824 5327 5038 6296 5625 5138 3787 4900
Net Export Sales 3355 3656 4391 4728 5621 5824 5327 5038 6296 5625 5138 3787 4900
BCH Sales South
High Loads
PNW 234 188 251 51 244 238 91 407 285 383 396 344 260
PSW 290 223 217 130 103 173 58 164 70 127 206 510 189
Low Loads
PNW 140 74 109 59 151 244 159 170 38 62 67 275 129
PSW 333 272 231 140 78 124 76 77 4 13 110 612 172
Table F-8
Table 2: Federal Marketing Case A Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11153 11863 13381 16505 18684 18623 19716 20071 22688 21416 17392 13137 17053
Coal 5596 5647 5607 5701 5680 5558 4849 3667 3170 3974 5001 5703 501
CT 3653 3443 3362 2570 2377 2147 1424 1303 53 741 1513 3133 2143
High Water Coal 5601 5649 5602 5696 5713 5663 4365 3324 2199 1770 4128 5731 4620
CT 3934 2478 2309 1809 1695 1533 453 288 0 0 135 2055 1391
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4573 4082 5326 5750 5750 5425
CT 4026 3899 4127 3659 4374 4414 4208 3967 195 2893 3970 4331 3672
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 12703 12846 14950 16523 18424 18023 17401 17943 20165 19045 16766 12838 16469
Coal 4307 4338 4150 4172 3970 3595 2972 2042 1274 1879 2700 4249 3304
CT 215 210 136 141 185 137 139 182 0 11 121 358 153
High Water Coal 4483 3644 3646 3893 3813 3329 2333 1357 861 1001 973 3618 2746
CT 245 29 5 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 29
Low Water Coal 4542 4538 4536 4609 4775 4774 4521 3626 2687 4019 4775 4772 4348
CT 281 318 282 275 1163 927 814 919 0 63 812 1020 573
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1601 2011 2195 2707 3171 3700 4060 3916 3628 3780 3857 2257 3071
Net Export Sales 1601 1331 1515 2027 2491 3020 3380 3916 4728 4880 3857 2257 2914
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3609 3986 4782 5185 6181 6362 5874 5063 5347 4697 5146 3783 5001
Net Export Sales 3609 3306 4102 4505 5501 5682 5194 5063 6447 5797 5146 3783 4844
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 175 160 193 68 223 206 120 456 267 382 396 347 250
PSW 320 245 271 144 132 188 49 114 61 124 215 505 197
Low Loads
PNW 137 56 138 50 147 257 277 171 33 65 60 279 139
PSW 303 281 251 153 86 137 110 69 4 12 104 591 175
Table F-9
Table 2-A: Federal Marketing Case A Operation - Percentage Change From No Action Case
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 3.3 -0.6 0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.8 0.2 0.0
Coal 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.9 -2.2 -2.9 2.2 -0.9 1.3 -0.1 -0.3
CT -2.7 -6.0 -6.5 -8.8 -1.9 -7.5 -9.7 -3.8 26.2 7.4 4.6 -1.7 -4.3
High Water Coal 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.8 -5.6 -3.4 -1.8 -1.3 3.2 0.0 -0.7
CT -3.5 -8.6 -11.4 -8.4 -5.0 -9.3 -40.4 -29.4 0.0 0.0 33.7 -2.7 -8.4
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -2.7 -4.4 -4.3 -6.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.7 1.3 27.5 13.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.6
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 3.3 -1.6 -1.1 -0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.7 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Coal -1.0 -0.3 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 -0.5
CT -19.8 -11.8 -13.4 -17.1 -14.4 -11.6 -16.3 -2.2 0.0 83.3 1.7 1.7 -9.5
High Water Coal -1.5 1.4 -5.1 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 -1.4 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.2 -0.5
CT -9.9 -12.1 -44.4 3.7 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 -9.4
Low Water Coal -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 -0.3
CT -17.4 -10.9 -14.0 -26.1 -4.8 -7.6 -15.5 -6.3 0.0 117.2 -0.5 0.9 -7.4
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 15.1 16.6 26.1 8.2 11.7 6.2 10.3 -4.3 -17.9 -18.2 -0.1 -2.0 0.6
Net Export Sales 15.1 -22.8 -13.0 -19.0 -12.3 -13.3 -8.2 -4.3 7.0 5.6 -0.1 -2.0 -4.6
Low Loads
Economy Energy 7.6 9.0 8.9 9.7 10.0 9.2 10.3 0.5 -15.1 -16.5 0.2 .-0.1 2.1
Net Export Sales 7.6 -9.6 -6.6 -4.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 0.5 2.4 3.1 0.2 -0.1 -1.1
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -25.2 -14.9 -23.1 33.3 -8.6 -13.4 31.9 12.0 -6.3 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -3.8
PSW 10.3 9.9 24.9 10.8 28.2 8.7 -15.5 -30.5 -12.9 -2.4 4.4 -1.0 4.2
Low Loads
PNW -2.1 -24.3 26.6 -15.3 -2.6 5.3 74.2 0.6 -13.2 4.8 -10.4 1.5 7.8
PSW -9.0 3.3 8.7 9.3 10.3 10.5 44.7 -10.4 0.0 -7.7 -5.5 -3.4 1.7
Table F-10
Table 2-B: Federal Marketing Case A Operation - Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 360 -74 113 -163 -226 -77 37 -42 34 70 -139 24 -6
Coal 0 -6 -1 -18 -5 -48 -111 -111 68 -38 62 -4 -17
CT -100 -220 -235 -248 -45 -173 -1153 -52 11 51 66 -55 -96
High Water Coal 0 5 -5 -25 -1 -47 -258 -118 -41 -24 129 -2 -32
CT -143 -232 -297 -166 -89 -157 -307 -120 0 0 34 -57 -127
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 0
CT -111 -180 -186 -236 -18 -18 -29 49 42 354 7 -10 -23
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 403 -208 -167 -81 -47 -5 -117 58 -42 -46 5 3 -13
Coal -45 -14 -45 -11 -13 -21 -24 -22 -9 14 9 1 -15
CT -53 -28 -21 -29 -31 -18 -27 -4 0 5 2 6 -16
High Water Coal -68 49 -194 18 -11 -7 9 -19 0 29 0 8 -15
CT -27 -4 -4 1 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -3
Low Water Coal -53 -40 -38 -78 1 2 1 -1 -11 36 6 0 -14
CT -59 -39 -46 -97 -59 -76 -149 -62 0 34 -4 9 -46
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 210 286 454 204 331 215 380 -175 -789 -842 -3 -45 17
Net Export Sales 210 -394 -226 -476 -349 -465 -300 -175 311 258 -3 -45 -140
Low Loads
Economy Energy 254 330 391 457 560 538 547 25 -949 -928 8 -4 10
Net Export Sales 254 -350 -289 -223 -120 -142 -133 25 151 172 8 -4 -56
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -59 -28 -58 17 -21 -32 29 49 -18 -1 0 3 -10
PSW 30 22 54 14 29 15 -9 -50 -9 -3 9 -5 8
Low Loads
PNW -3 -18 29 -9 -4 13 118 1 -5 3 -7 4 10
PSW -30 9 20 13 8 13 34 -8 0 -1 -6 -21 3
Table F-11
Table 3: Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange - Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11143 11935 13140 16597 18534 18471 19785 20189 22717 21406 17607 13261 17065
Coal 5597 5652 5607 5706 5673 5572 4963 3738 3097 4057 4989 5711 5030
CT 3820 3654 3404 2517 2387 2173 1555 1317 43 727 1579 3383 2213
High Water Coal 5601 5646 5602 5718 5712 5676 4603 3418 2208 1782 4141 5736 4654
CT 4090 2722 2311 1882 1709 1538 820 380 0 0 132 2375 1496
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5749 5750 5750 5496 4572 4082 5326 5749 5750 5426
CT 4164 4091 4200 3501 4390 4425 4157 3879 1611 2808 4046 4343 3680
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13078 12970 14589 16100 18292 17737 17693 18046 20230 19083 16821 12919 16453
Coal 4296 4384 4191 4172 3755 3457 2927 1986 1272 1850 2670 4268 3269
CT 215 310 166 189 185 150 178 202 0 11 129 402 178
High Water Coal 4487 3628 3630 3875 3491 3288 2159 1325 861 972 973 3613 2692
CT 253 30 2 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 29
Low Water Coal 4544 4637 4626 4707 4772 4772 4518 3623 2654 4001 4783 4777 4368
CT 267 443 386 442 1205 1028 1028 1031 0 49 828 1046 646
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1227 1775 2004 2744 3002 3598 3785 4103 4458 4094 3452 1981 3016
Net Export Sales 1880 1775 1352 2092 2350 2946 3785 4103 4458 4747 4105 2634 3016
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3333 3649 4451 4847 5899 5957 5383 5111 6309 4991 4536 3271 4811
Net Export Sales 3986 3649 3799 4195 5247 5305 5383 5111 6309 5644 5189 3924 481
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 303 288 259 93 240 214 104 454 282 355 375 365 279
PSW 273 186 171 87 63 144 35 113 50 113 184 475 157
Low Loads
PNW 185 150 151 61 155 253 153 194 41 76 65 291 147
PSW 258 168 142 79 43 45 34 36 4 11 99 575 125
Table F-12
Table 3-A: Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB- Seasonal Exchange - Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 3.2 0.0 -1.0 -0.4 -2.0 -1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.0
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.1 -1.1 -0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
CT 1.8 -0.2 -5.4 -10.7 -1.4 -6.3 -1.4 -2.8 2.4 5.4 9.1 6.1 -1.2
High Water Coal 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.4 -0.7 3.6 0.1 0.0
CT 0.3 0.4 -11.3 -4.7 -4.2 -9.0 7.9 -6.9 0.0 0.0 30.7 12.5 -1.4
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 0.7 0.3 -2.6 -10.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 5.2 10.6 2.1 0.0 -0.4
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 6.3 -0.6 -3.5 -3.0 -0.5 -1.6 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 -0.1
Coal -1.3 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 -5.7 -4.4 -2.3 -3.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 0.5 -1
CT -19.8 30.3 5.7 11.2 -14.4 -3.2 7.2 8.6 0.0 83.3 8.4 14.2 5.3
High Water Coal -1.4 0.9 -5.5 0.0 -8.7 -1.4 -7.1 -3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -2.5
CT -7.0 -9.1 -77.8 7.4 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 -9.4
Low Water Coal -1.1 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
CT -21.5 24.1 17.7 18.8 -1.4 2.5 6.7 5.1 0.0 69.0 1.5 3.5 4.4
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -11.8 2.9 15.1 9.6 - 5.7 3.2 2.9 0.3 0.9 -11.4 -10.6 -13.9 -12
Net Export Sales 35.1 2.9 -22.4 -16.4 -17.3 -15.5 2.9 0.3 0.9 2.7 6.3 14.4 -1.2
Low Loads
Economy Energy -0.7 -0.2 1.4 2.5 4.9 2.3 1.1 1.4 0.2 -11.3 -11.7 -13.6 -1.8
Net Export Sales 18.8 -0.2 -13.5 -11.3 -6.7 -8.9 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.3 1.0 3.6 -1.8
BCH Economy Sales South
High Load
PNW 29.5 53.2 3.2 82.4 -1.6 -10.1 14.3 11.5 -1.1 -7.3 -5.3 6.1 7.3
PSW -5.9 -16.6 -21.2 -33.1 -38.8 -16.8 -39.7 -31.1 -28.6 -11.0 -10.7 -6.9 -16
Low Loads
PNW 32.1 102.7 38.5 3.4 2.6 3.7 -3.8 14.1 7.9 22.6 -3.0 5.8 14.0
PSW -22.5 -38.2 -38.5 -43.6 -44.9 -63.7 -55.3 -53.2 0.0 -15.4 -10.0 -6.0 -27.3
Table F-13
Table 3-B: Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange - Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 350 -2 -128 -71 -376 -229 106 76 63 60 76 148 6
Coal -1 -1 -13 -12 -34 3 -40 -5 45 50 4 0
CT 67 -9 -193 -301 -35 -147 -22 -38 1 37 132 195 -26
High Water Coal 0 2 -5 -3 -2 -34 -20 -24 -32 -12 142 3 2
CT 13 12 -295 -93 -75 -152 60 -28 0 0 31 263 -22
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 1
CT 27 12 -113 -394 -2 -7 -22 -39 8 269 83 2 -15
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 778 -84 -528 -504 -85 -291 175 161 23 -8 60 84 -19
Coal -56 32 -4 -11 -228 -159 -69 -78 -11 -15 -21 20 -50
CT -53 72 9 19 -31 -5 12 16 0 5 10 50 9
High Water Coal -64 33 -210 0 -333 -48 -165 -51 0 0 0 3 -69
CT -19 -3 -7 2 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 4 -3
Low Water Coal -51 59 52 20 -2 0 -2 -4 -44 18 14 5 6
CT -73 86 58 70 -17 25 65 50 0 20 12 35 27
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -164 50 263 241 162 113 105 12 41 -528 -408 -321 -38
Net Export Sales 489 50 -390 -412 -491 -540 105 12 41 125 245 332 -38
Low Loads
Economy Energy -22 -7 60 119 278 133 56 73 13 -634 -602 -516 -89
Net Export Sales 631 -7 -593 -534 -375 -520 56 73 13 19 51 137 -89
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 69 100 8 42 -4 -24 13 47 -3 -28 -21 21 19
PSW -17 -37 -46 -43 -40 -29 -23 -51 -20 -14 -22 -35 -32
Low Loads
PNW 45 76 42 2 4 9 -6 24 3 14 -2 16 18
PSW -75 -104 -89 -61 -35 -79 -42 -41 0 -2 -11 -37 -47
Table F-14
Table 4: Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange - Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11090 11958 13176 16609 18566 18517 19755 20177 22706 21398 17602 13235 17066
Coal 5596 5653 5608 5708 5670 5573 4967 3742 3086 4058 4994 5708 5030
CT 3788 3692 3478 2654 2389 2223 1557 1328 42 719 1521 3328 2227
High Water Coal 5601 5646 5607 5717 5709 5681 4602 3419 2208 1786 4103 5733 4651
CT 4082 2761 2458 1848 1674 1545 798 352 0 0 115 2317 1496
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5750 5750 5750 5496 4572 4079 5329 5749 5750 5425
CT 4175 4118 4234 3725 4401 4432 4156 3896 155 2753 4012 4319 3698
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13069 12972 14596 16087 18300 17735 17688 18050 20228 19076 16806 12918 16460
Coal 4297 4373 4181 4161 3751 3462 2931 1979 1274 1854 2672 4261 3266
CT 234 283 154 172 181 142 175 192 0 11 138 419 175
High Water Coal 4489 3629 3633 3872 3493 3285 2158 1321 861 1002 973 3609 2694
CT 270 35 3 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 32
Low Water Coal 4546 4608 4606 4686 4772 4772 4519 3624 2662 3996 4779 4777 4362
CT 296 407 348 387 1200 985 1019 999 0 48 878 1076 637
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1147 1840 2123 2889 3033 3690 3777 4117 4436 4079 3404 1891 3033
Net Export Sales 1800 1840 1471 2237 2381 3038 3777 4117 4436 4732 4057 2544 3033
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3335 3617 4448 4832 5907 5965 5387 5102 6310 4989 4531 3277 4811
Net Export Sales 3988 3617 3796 4180 5255 5313 5387 5102 6310 5642 5184 3930 4811
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 299 254 235 72 230 201 106 468 287 377 403 387 277
PSW 276 225 210 110 77 159 38 114 47 94 154 445 162
Low Loads
PNW 208 122 130 60 150 239 154 190 40 77 75 332 147
PSW 226 201 176 105 54 68 41 41 4 9 85 526 128
Table F-15 Table 4-A: Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange - Percentage Change From No Action Case
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 2.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.4 -1.8 -1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.0
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 -1.0 -0.5 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0
CT 0.9 0.8 -3.3 -5.8 -1.4 -4.2 -1.3 -2.0 0.0 4.2 5.1 4.4 -0.5
High Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 -0.4 2.6 0.0 0.0
CT 0.1 1.9 -5.7 -6.4 -6.2 -8.6 5.0 -13.7 0.0 0.0 13.9 9.7 -1.4
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 0.9 1.0 -1.8 -4.4 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 1.3 8.4 1.2 -0.5 0.1
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 6.3 -0.6 -3.4 -3.1 -0.4 -1.6 1.0 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.1
Coal -1.3 0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -5.8 -4.3 -2.2 -4.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 0.3 -1.6
High Water CT -12.7 18.9 -1.9 1.2 -16.2 -8.4 5.4 3.2 0.0 83.3 16.0 19.0 3.6
High Water Coal -1.4 0.9 -5.4 -0.1 -8.7 -1.5 -7.1 -4.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 -2.4
CT -0.7 6.1 -66.7 3.7 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.1 0.0
Low Water Coal -1.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
CT -12.9 14.0 6.1 4.0 -1.8 -1.8 5.8 1.8 0.0 65.5 7.6 6.4 2.9
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -17.5 6.7 21.9 15.4 6.8 5.9 2.6 0.6 0.4 -11.7 -11.8 -17.9 -0.7
Net Export Sales 29.4 6.7 -15.5 -10.6 -16.2 -12.8 2.6 0.6 0.4 2.4 5.1 10.5 -0.7
Low Loads
Economy Energy -0.6 -1.1 1.3 2.2 5.1 2.4 1.1 1.3 0.2 -11.3 -11.8 -13.5 -1.8
Net Export Sales 18.9 -1.1 -13.6 -11.6 -6.5 -8.8 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 3.8 -1.8
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 27.8 35.1 -6.4 41.2 -5.7 -15.5 16.5 15.0 0.7 -1.6 1.8 12.5 6.5
PSW -4.8 0.9 -3.2 -15.4 -25.2 -8.1 -34.5 -30.5 -32.9 -26.0 -25.2 -12.7 -14.3
Low Loads
PNW 48.6 64.9 19.3 1.7 -0.7 -2.0 -3.1 11.8 5.3 24.2 11.9 20.7 14.0
PSW -32.1 -26.1 -23.8 25.0 -30.8 -45.2 -46.1 -46.8 0.0 -30.8 -22.7 -14.1 -25.6
Table F-16
Table 4-B: Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange - Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 297 21 -92 -59 -344 -183 76 64 52 52 71 122 7
Coal 0 0 0 -11 -15 -33 7 -36 -16 46 55 1 0
CT 35 29 -119 -164 -33 -97 -20 -27 0 29 74 140 -12
High Water Coal 0 2 0 -4 -5 -29 -21 -23 -32 -8 104 0 -1
CT 5 51 -148 -127 -110 -145 38 -56 0 0 14 205 -22
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0
CT 38 39 -79 -170 9 0 -23 -22 2 214 49 -22 3
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 769 -82 -521 -517 -77 -293 170 165 21 -15 45 83 -22
Coal -55 21 -14 -22 -232 -154 -65 -85 -9 -11 -19 13 -53
CT -34 45 -3 2 -35 -13 9 6 0 5 19 67 6
High Water Coal -62 34 -207 -3 -331 -51 -166 -55 0 30 0 -1 -67
CT -2 2 -6 1 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 16 0
Low Water Coal -49 30 32 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -36 13 10 5 0
CT -44 50 20 15 -22 -18 56 18 0 19 62 65 18
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -244 115 382 386 193 205 97 26 19 -543 -456 -411 -2
Net Export Sales 409 115 -271 -267 -460 -448 97 26 19 110 197 242 -21
Low Loads
Economy Energy -20 -39 57 104 286 141 60 64 14 -636 -607 -510 -89
Net Export Sales 633 -39 -596 -549 -367 -512 60 64 14 17 46 143 -89
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 65 66 -16 -21 -14 -37 15 61 2 -6 7 43 17
PSW -14 2 -7 -20 -26 -14 -20 -50 -23 -33 -52 -65 -27
Low Loads
PNW -68 48 21 1 -1 -5 -5 20 2 15 8 57 18
PSW -107 -71 -55 -35 -24 -56 -35 -36 0 -4 -25 -86 -44
Table F-17
Table 5: Assured Delivery - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange - Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11138 11918 13117 16587 18540 18475 19782 20195 22715 21409 17612 13260 17062
Coal 5596 5653 5607 5703 5667 5569 4948 3749 3080 4045 4985 5711 5026
CT 3814 3654 3395 2488 2356 2172 1534 1322 41 724 1568 3385 2204
High Water Coal 5601 5644 5602 5713 5707 5688 4595 3444 2205 1774 4141 5736 4654
CT 4088 2729 2294 1825 1669 1543 805 437 0 0 127 2387 1492
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4572 4076 5325 5749 5750 5425
CT 4153 4089 4218 3495 4390 4427 4139 3871 154 2820 4033 4347 3678
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13081 12971 14587 16096 18280 17752 17677 18040 20230 19073 16819 12917 16460
Coal 4294 4357 4167 4147 3751 3458 2931 1993 1271 1850 2666 4267 3263
CT 214 247 148 155 169 129 158 174 0 11 128 404 161
High Water Coal 4486 3636 3623 3892 3495 3295 2168 1326 861 972 973 3614 2695
CT 249 34 6 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 30
Low Water Coal 4542 4588 4591 4654 4773 4774 4519 3626 2649 4010 4780 4778 4357
CT 267 371 324 337 1124 883 922 877 0 53 818 1045 585
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1240 1753 1980 2721 2966 3597 3760 4120 4450 4106 3461 2014 3011
Net Export Sales 1893 1753 1328 2069 2314 2945 3760 4120 4450 4759 4114 2667 3011
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3341 3604 4431 4845 5888 5969 5379 5105 6303 4984 4543 3281 4807
Net Export Sales 3994 3604 3779 4193 5236 5317 5379 5105 6303 5637 5196 3934 4807
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 316 194 185 80 219 185 94 402 286 371 386 377 257
PSW 284 276 252 122 95 181 54 158 71 120 191 497 192
Low Loads
PNW 186 71 95 57 143 212 147 183 36 78 68 295 131
PSW 264 291 221 144 68 94 63 66 4 11 101 585 159
Table F-18
Table 5-A: Assured Delivery 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange - Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 3.2 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -2.0 -1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.0
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 -0.1
CT 1.6 -0.2 -5.6 -11.7 -2.7 -6.4 -2.7 -2.4 -2.4 4.9 8.4 6.2 -1.6
High Water Coal 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 0.1 -1.6 -1.1 3.6 0.1 0.0
CT 0.3 0.7 -12.0 -7.6 -6.4 -8.7 5.9 7.1 0.0 0.0 25.7 13.0 -1.7
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 0.4 0.2 -2.2 -10.3 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.2 0.7 11.1 1.8 0.1 -0.5
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 6.3 -0.6 -3.5 -3.1 -0.5 -1.5 0.9 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.1
Coal -1.3 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -5.8 -4.4 -2.2 -3.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 0.4 -1.7
CT -20.1 3.8 -5.7 -8.8 -21.8 -16.8 -4.8 -6.5 0.0 83.3 7.6 14.8 -4.7
High Water Coal -1.4 1.1 -5.7 0.4 -8.6 -1.2 -6.7 -3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -2.4
CT -8.5 3.0 -33.3 14.8 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 -6.3
Low Water Coal -1.2 0.2 0.4 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.1
CT -21.5 3.9 -1.2 -9.4 -8.0 -12.0 -4.3 -10.6 0.0 82.8 0.2 3.4 -5.5
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -10.9 1.6 13.7 8.7 4.4 3.2 2.2 0.7 0.7 -11.2 -10.3 -12.5 -1.4
Net Export Sales 36.1 1.6 -23.8 -17.4 -18.5 -15.5 2.2 0.7 0.7 3.0 6.6 15.8 -1.4
Low Loads
Economy Energy -0.4 -1.4 0.9 2.5 4.8 2.5 1.0 1.3 0.1 -11.4 -11.6 -13.4 -1.9
Net Export Sales 19.0 -1.4 -13.9 -11.3 -6.9 -8.7 1.0 1.3 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.9 -1.9
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 35.0 3.2 -26.3 56.9 -10.2 -22.3 3.3 -1.2 0.4 -3.1 -2.5 9.6 -1.2
PSW -2.1 23.8 16.1 -6.2 -7.8 4.6 -6.9 -3.7 1.4 -5.5 -7.3 -2.5 1.6
Low Loads
PNW 32.9 -4.1 -12.8 -3.4 -5.3 -13.1 -7.5 7.6 -5.3 25.8 1.5 7.3 1.6
PSW -20.7 7.0 -4.3 2.9 -12.8 -24.2 -17.1 -14.3 0.0 -15.4 -8.2 -4.4 -7.6
Table F-19
Table 5-B: Assured Delivery - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange - Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 345 -19 -151 -81 -370 -225 103 82 61 63 81 147 3
Coal 0 0 -1 -16 -18 -37 -12 -29 -22 33 46 4 -4
CT 61 -9 -202 -330 -66 -148 -43 -33 -1 34 121 197 -35
High Water Coal 0 0 -5 -8 -7 -22 -28 2 -35 -20 142 3 2
CT 11 19 -312 -150 -115 -147 45 29 0 0 26 275 -26
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0
CT 16 10 -95 -400 -2 -5 -40 -47 1 281 70 6 -17
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 781 -83 -530 -508 -97 -276 159 155 23 -18 58 82 -22
Coal -58 5 -28 -36 -232 -158 -65 -71 -12 -15 -25 19 -56
CT -54 9 -9 -15 -47 -26 -8 -12 0 5 9 52 -8
High Water Coal -65 41 -217 17 -329 -41 -156 -50 0 0 0 4 -66
CT -23 1 -3 4 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 -2
Low Water Coal -53 10 17 -33 -1 2 -1 -1 -49 27 11 6 -5
CT -73 14 -4 -35 -98 -120 -41 -104 0 24 2 34 -34
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -151 28 239 218 126 112 80 29 33 -516 -399 -288 -43
Net Export Sales 502 28 -414 -435 -527 -541 80 29 33 137 254 365 -43
Low Loads
Economy Energy -14 -52 40 117 267 145 52 67 7 -641 -595 -506 -93
Net Export Sales 639 -52 -613 -536 -386 -508 52 67 7 12 58 147 -93
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 82 6 -66 29 -25 -53 3 -5 1 -12 -10 33 -3
PSW -6 53 35 -8 -8 8 -4 -6 1 -7 -15 -13 3
Low Loads
PNW 46 -3 -14 -2 -8 -32 -12 13 -2 16 1 20 2
PSW -69 19 -10 4 -10 -30 -13 -11 0 -2 -9 -27 -13
Table F-20
Table 6: Assured Delivery - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange - Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11089 11941 13156 16593 18570 18520 19751 20184 22709 21399 17605 13232 17062
Coal 5596 5653 5607 5703 5667 5568 4950 3751 3082 4048 4987 5708 5027
CT 3783 3662 3443 2604 2368 2211 1535 1325 41 714 1515 3331 2211
High Water Coal 5601 5645 5607 5712 5707 5685 4588 3450 2204 1771 4097 5733 4650
CT 4085 2744 2425 1803 1647 1535 778 434 0 0 114 2327 1491
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5749 5750 5750 5496 4572 4075 5328 5749 5750 5425
CT 4164 4089 4209 3673 4401 4432 4145 3881 152 2751 4008 4322 3686
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13070 12969 14580 16101 18282 17764 17676 18044 20227 19068 16809 12915 16459
Coal 4297 4356 4166 4141 3746 3435 2931 1991 1273 1857 2669 4260 3260
CT 232 245 145 151 173 131 159 172 0 11 136 422 165
High Water Coal 4489 3635 3619 3884 3482 3249 2169 1324 861 1017 972 3609 2693
CT 265 31 2 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 30
Low Water Coal 4546 4579 4595 4652 4772 4773 4519 3626 2656 4012 4774 4777 4357
CT 300 360 324 333 1145 898 919 874 0 49 863 1074 595
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1163 1775 2055 2827 2994 3672 3746 4118 4446 4086 3418 1922 3017
Net Export Sales 1816 1775 1403 2175 2342 3020 3746 4118 4446 4739 4071 2575 3017
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3342 3595 4428 4843 5892 5970 5379 5107 6305 4986 4537 3290 4807
Net Export Sales 3995 3595 3776 4191 5240 5318 5379 5107 6305 5639 5190 3943 4807
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 310 189 183 69 213 176 99 401 289 392 419 396 262
PSW 288 272 250 125 100 187 54 163 70 98 162 467 186
Low Loads
PNW 209 70 94 55 133 210 145 182 36 80 78 338 136
PSW 231 285 231 148 78 108 64 68 4 9 87 533 154
Table F-21
Table 6-A: Assured Delivery - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange - Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 2.7 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -1.8 -1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.0
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 1.0 0.0 -0.1
CT 0.8 0.0 -4.3 -7.6 -2.2 -4.7 -2.7 -2.2 -2.4 3.5 4.7 4.5 -1.3
High Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 0.2 -1.6 -1.3 2.5 0.0 0.0
CT 0.2 1.3 -6.9 -8.7 -7.7 -9.2 2.4 6.4 0.0 0.0 12.9 10.2 -1.8
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 0.7 0.2 -2.4 -5.7 0.2 0.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 8.3 1.1 -0.4 -0.2
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 6.3 -0.7 -3.6 -3.0 -0.5 -1.5 0.9 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.1
Coal -1.3 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -6.0 -5.0 -2.2 -3.5 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 0.3 -1.8
CT -13.4 2.9 -7.6 -11.2 -19.9 -15.5 -4.2 -7.5 0.0 83.3 -14.3 19.9 -2.4
High Water Coal -1.4 1.1 -5.8 0.2 -8.9 -2.6 -6.7 -3.8 0.0 4.6 -0.1 0.0 -2.5
CT -2.6 -6.1 -77.8 -37.0 -87.5 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.8 -6.3
Low Water Coal -1.1 0.0 0.5 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1
CT -11.8 0.8 -1.2 -10.5 -6.3 -10.5 -4.6 -10.9 0.0 69.0 5.8 6.2 -3.9
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -16.4 2.9 18.0 12.9 5.4 5.4 1.8 0.7 0.7 -11.6 -11.5 -16.5 -1.2
Net Export Sales 30.5 2.9 -19.4 -13.1 -17.6 -13.4 1.8 0.7 0.7 2.5 5.5 11.8 -1.2
Low Loads
Economy Energy -0.4 -1.7 0.8 2.4 4.8 2.5 1.0 1.4 0.1 -11.4 -11.7 -13.1 -1.9
Net Export Sales 19.1 -1.7 -14.0 -11.4 -6.8 -8.7 1.0 1.4 0.1 0.2 1.0 4.1 -1.9
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 32.5 0.5 -27.1 35.3 -12.7 -26.1 8.8 -1.5 1.4 2.3 5.8 15.1 0.8
PSW -0.7 22.0 15.2 -3.8 -2.9 8.1 -6.9 -0.6 0.0 -22.8 -21.4 -8.4 -1.6
Low Loads
PNW 49.3 -5.4 -13.8 -6.8 -11.9 -13.9 -8.8 7.1 -5.3 29.0 16.4 22.9 5.4
PSW -30.6 4.8 0.0 5.7 0.0 -12.9 -15.8 -11.7 0.0 -30.8 -20.9 -12.9 -10.5
Table F-22
Table 6-B: Assured Delivery - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange - Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 296 4 -112 -75 -340 -180 72 71 55 53 74 119 3
Coal 0 0 -1 -16 -18 -38 -10 -27 -20 36 48 1 -3
CT 30 -1 -154 -214 -54 -109 -42 -30 -1 24 68 143 -28
High Water Coal 0 1 0 -9 -7 -25 -35 8 -36 -23 98 0 -2
CT 8 34 -181 -172 -137 -155 18 26 0 0 13 215 -27
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 2 0 0 0
CT 27 10 -104 -222 9 0 -34 -37 -1 212 45 -19 -9
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 770 -85 -537 -503 -95 -264 158 159 20 -23 48 80 -23
Coal -55 4 -29 -42 -237 -181 -65 -73 -10 -8 -22 12 -59
CT -36 7 -12 -19 -43 -24 -7 -14 0 5 17 70 -4
High Water Coal -62 40 -221 9 -342 -87 -155 -52 0 45 -1 -1 -68
CT -7 -2 -7 -10 -7 -1 0 0 0 0 0 14 -2
Low Water Coal -49 1 21 -35 -2 1 -1 -1 -42 29 5 5 -5
CT -40 3 -4 -39 -77 -105 -44 -107 0 20 47 63 -24
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -228 50 314 324 154 187 66 27 29 -536 -442 -380 -37
Net Export Sales 425 50 -339 -329 -499 -466 66 27 29 117 211 273 -37
Low Loads
Economy Energy -13 -61 37 115 271 146 52 69 9 -639 -601 -497 -93
Net Export Sales 640 -61 -616 -538 -382 -507 52 69 9 14 52 156 93
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 76 1 -68 18 -31 -62 8 -6 4 9 23 52 2
PSW -2 49 33 -5 -3 14 -4 -1 0 -29 -44 -43 -3
Low Loads
PNW 69 -4 -15 -4 -18 -34 -14 12 -2 18 11 63 7
PSW -102 13 0 8 0 -16 -12 -9 0 -4 -23 -79 -18
Table F-23
Table 7: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11777 11850 12944 16573 18236 18356 19857 20129 22739 21455 17484 13292 17058
Coal 5596 5647 5605 5682 5671 5531 4835 3671 3192 4056 5024 5710 5018
CT 3636 3494 3225 2293 2301 2000 1407 1297 54 794 1621 3363 2124
High Water Coal 5601 5655 5598 5666 5708 5607 4413 3360 2196 1749 4217 5740 4626
CT 3895 2569 2125 1637 1607 1339 502 300 0 0 136 2432 1378
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5744 5750 5750 5496 4573 4083 5326 5750 5750 5425
CT 3991 3933 4039 3236 4383 4387 4066 3925 189 3041 4053 4324 3631
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13632 12642 14373 16031 18308 17752 17579 18099 20188 19054 16822 12923 16450
Coal 4183 4386 4154 4152 3756 3447 2901 1967 1263 1832 2676 4269 3249
CT 173 295 146 156 169 128 153 194 0 15 131 404 163
High Water Coal 4396 3713 3427 3868 3497 3285 2192 1308 861 973 973 3621 2676
CT 186 54 2 39 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 27
Low Water Coal 4446 4620 4599 4662 4772 4773 4519 3624 2649 4031 4780 4777 4354
CT 207 424 332 353 1162 941 874 960 0 91 823 1030 600
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1562 2101 2284 3078 3263 3885 4168 3969 3674 3270 3422 1990 3054
Net Export Sales 2287 1421 879 1673 1858 2480 3488 3969 4774 5095 4147 2715 2897
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3691 3893 4834 5297 6456 6513 5918 5138 5357 4033 4545 3260 4910
Net Export Sales 4416 3213 3429 3892 5051 5108 5238 5138 6457 5858 5270 3985 4753
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 180 245 290 94 239 227 130 473 268 343 387 355 269
PSW 313 205 202 99 83 151 36 96 45 134 188 489 170
Low Loads
PNW 220 103 179 58 161 257 269 190 33 75 63 288 159
PSW 220 202 189 80 47 57 52 38 4 10 95 560 129
Table F-24
Table 7-A: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 9.1 -0.7 -2.4 -0.6 -3.6 -1.8 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.3 1.4 0.0
Coal 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -1.3 -2.5 -2.8 2.9 1.1 1.7 0.1 -0.2
CT -3.1 -4.6 -10.3 -18.6 -5.0 -13.8 -10.8 -4.3 28.6 15.1 12.0 5.5 -5.1
High Water Coal 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -1.0 -0.1 -1.8 -4.5 -2.4 -2.0 -2.5 5.5 0.1 -0.6
CT -4.5 -5.2 -18.5 -17.1 -9.9 -20.8 -33.9 -26.5 0.0 0.0 34.7 15.2 -9.2
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -3.5 -3.6 -6.4 -16.9 -0.2 -1.0 -2.7 0.2 23.5 19.8 2.3 -0.4 -1.7
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10.8 -3.2 -4.9 -3.5 -0.4 -1.5 0.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.7 -0.2
Coal -3.9 0.8 -1.0 -0.7 -5.7 -4.7 -3.2 -4.7 -1.6 -1.8 -0.6 0.5 -2.1
CT -35.4 23.9 -7.0 -8.2 -21.8 -17.4 -7.8 4.3 0.0 150.0 10.1 14.8 -3.6
High Water Coal -3.4 3.3 -10.8 -0.2 -8.6 -1.5 -5.7 -4.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 -3.1
CT -31.6 63.6 -77.8 44.4 -87.5 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.6 -15.6
Low Water Coal 3.2 0.9 0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.8 1.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2
CT -39.1 18.8 1.2 -5.1 -4.9 -6.2 -9.2 -2.1 0.0 213.8 0.9 1.9 -3.1
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 12.3 21.8 31.2 23.0 14.9 11.5 13.3 -3.0 -16.8 -29.3 -11.3 -13.6 0.0
Net Export Sales 64.4 -17.6 -49.5 -33.2 -34.6 -28.8 -5.2 -3.0 8.1 10.2 7.4 17.9 -5.1
Low Loads
Economy Energy 10.0 6.5 10.1 12.0 14.9 11.8 11.1 2.0 -14.9 -28.3 -11.5 -13.9 0.2
Net Export Sales 31.6 -12.1 -21.9 -17.7 -10.1 -12.3 -1.7 2.0 2.6 4.1 2.6 5.2 -3.0
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -23.1 30.3 15.5 84.3 -2.0 -4.6 42.9 16.2 -6.0 -10.4 -2.3 3.2 3.5
PSW 7.9 -8.1 -6.9 -23.8 -19.4 -12.7 -37.9 -41.5 -35.7 5.5 -8.7 -4.1 -10.1
Low Loads
PNW 57.1 39.2 64.2 -1.7 6.6 5.3 69.2 11.8 -13.2 21.0 -6.0 4.7 23.3
PSW -33.9 -25.7 -18.2 -42.9 -39.7 -54.0 -31.6 -50.6 0.0 -23.1 -13.6 -8.5 -25.0
Table F-25
Table 7-B: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 984 -87 -324 -95 -674 -344 78 16 85 109 -47 179 -1
Coal 0 -6 -3 -37 -14 -75 -125 -107 90 44 85 3 -12
CT -117 -169 -372 -525 -121 -320 -170 -58 12 104 174 175 -115
High Water Coal 0 11 -9 -55 -6 -103 -210 -82 -44 -45 218 7 -26
CT -182 -141 -481 -338 -177 -351 -258 -108 0 0 35 320 -140
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -6 0 0 0 1 6 0 1 0 0
CT -146 -146 -274 -659 -9 -45 -113 7 36 502 90 -17 -64
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1332 -412 -744 -573 -69 -276 61 214 -19 -37 61 88 -32
Coal -169 34 -41 -31 -227 -169 -95 -97 -20 -33 -15 21 -70
CT -95 57 -11 -14 -47 -27 -13 8 0 9 12 52 -6
High Water Coal -155 118 -413 -7 -327 -51 -132 -68 0 1 0 11 -85
CT -86 21 -7 12 -7 -1 0 0 0 0 0 12 -5
Low Water Coal -149 42 25 -25 -2 1 1 -3 -49 48 11 5 -8
CT -133 67 4 -19 -60 -62 -89 -21 0 62 7 19 -19
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 171 376 543 575 423 400 488 -122 -743 -1352 -438 -312 0
Net Export Sales 896 -304 -862 -830 -982 -1005 -192 -122 357 473 287 413 -157
Low Loads
Economy Energy 336 237 443 569 835 689 591 100 -939 -1592 -593 -527 10
Net Export Sales 1061 -443 62 -836 -570 -716 -89 100 161 233 132 198 -147
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads PNW -54 57 39 43 -5 -11 39 66 -17 -40 -9 11 9
PSW 23 -18 -15 -31 -20 -22 -22 -68 -25 7 -18 -21 -19
Low Loads
PNW 80 29 70 -1 10 13 110 20 -5 13 -4 13 30
PSW -113 -70 -42 -60 -31 -67 -24 -39 0 -3 -15 -52 -43
Table F-26
Table B: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11682 11863 13039 16555 18293 18428 19825 20109 22724 21465 17461 13267 17059
Coal 5595 5650 5606 5682 5669 5532 4845 3677 3176 4068 5023 5708 5019
CT 3592 3536 3311 2393 2308 2041 1418 1306 53 786 1580 3302 2136
High Water Coal 5601 5654 5600 5654 5703 5618 4441 3376 2196 1752 4209 5737 4628
CT 3879 2581 2256 1625 1594 1353 509 298 0 0 109 2327 1378
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5747 5750 5750 5496 4573 4082 5329 5749 5750 5426
CT 3977 3975 4081 3473 4396 4405 4115 3939 193 3013 4054 4318 3662
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13627 12642 14377 16021 18313 17750 17583 18101 20185 19049 16811 12918 16448
Coal 4187 4373 4144 4142 3754 3448 2911 1964 1264 1832 2678 4262 3247
CT 190 266 136 145 163 120 149 182 0 17 140 424 161
High Water Coal 4412 3711 3453 3884 3498 3285 2188 1311 861 972 973 3609 2680
CT 211 59 2 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 31
Low Water Coal 4450 4591 4570 4630 4772 4771 4520 3625 2654 4024 4777 4776 4347
CT 232 395 306 313 1139 877 867 912 0 100 868 1063 589
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1425 2152 2461 3164 3314 3983 4169 3986 3652 3258 3372 1893 3068
Net Export Sales 2150 1472 1056 1759 1909 2578 3489 3986 4752 5083 4097 2618 2911
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3699 3860 4837 5291 6462 6516 5933 5128 5355 4032 4536 3268 4911
Net Export Sales 4424 3180 3432 3886 5057 5111 5253 5128 6455 5857 5261 3993 4754
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 194 188 226 78 225 196 135 494 268 368 430 384 266
PSW 294 258 270 126 100 184 37 94 46 76 156 452 174
Low Loads
PNW 250 81 161 55 153 247 270 187 32 77 73 330 160
PSW 179 230 224 107 58 77 56 44 4 8 79 513 131
Table F-27
Table 8-A: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 8.2 -0.6 -1.7 -0.7 -3.3 -1.5 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 -0.4 1.2 0.0
Coal 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -1.3 -2.3 -2.7 2.4 1.4 1.7 0.0 -0.2
CT -4.3 -3.5 -8.0 -15.1 -4.7 -12.0 -10.1 -3.6 26.2 13.9 9.2 3.6 -4.6
High Water Coal 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -1.2 -0.2 -1.6 -3.9 -1.9 -2.0 -2.3 5.3 0.1 -0.5
CT -4.9 -4.8 -13.4 -17.7 -10.7 -19.9 -33.0 -27.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 10.2 -9.2
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -3.9 -2.5 -5.4 -10.8 0.1 -0.6 -1.5 0.5 26.1 18.7 2.3 -0.5 -0.9
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10.8 -3.2 -4.9 -3.5 -0.3 -1.5 0.4 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.6 -0.2
Coal -3.8 0.5 -1.2 -1.0 -5.7 -4.6 -2.8 -4.8 -1.5 -1.8 -0.5 0.3 -2.2
CT -29.1 11.8 -13.4 -14.7 -24.5 -22.6 -10.2 -2.2 0.0 183.3 17.6 20.5 -4.7
High Water Coal -3.1 3.2 -10.1 0.2 -8.5 -1.5 -5.9 -4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.9
CT -22.4 78.8 -77.8 40.7 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.3 -3.1
Low Water Coal -3.2 0.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 -0.3
CT -31.8 10.6 -6.7 -15.9 -6.8 -12.6 -10.0 -7.0 0.0 244.8 6.4 5.1 -4.8
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 2.4 24.8 41.4 26.4 16.7 14.3 13.3 -2.6 -17.3 -29.5 -12.6 -17.8 0.5
Net Export Sales 54.6 -14.7 -39.3 -29.7 -32.8 -26.0 -5.2 -2.6 7.6 10.0 6.1 13.7 -4.7
Low Loads
Economy Energy 10.3 5.6 10.2 11.9 15.0 11.9 11.4 1.8 -14.9 -28.3 -11.7 -13.7 0.2
Net Export Sales 31.9 -13.0 -21.8 -17.8 -10.0 -12.2 -1.4 1.8 2.5 4.1 2.4 5.4 -3.0
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -17.1 0.0 -10.0 52.9 -7.8 -17.6 48.4 21.4 -6.0 -3.9 8.6 11.6 2.3
PSW 1.4 15.7 24.4 -3.1 -2.9 6.4 -36.2 -42.7 -34.3 -40.2 -24.3 -11.4 -7.9
Low Loads
PNW 78.6 9.5 47.7 -6.8 1.3 1.2 69.8 10.0 -15.8 24.2 9.0 20.0 24.0
PSW -46.2 -15.4 -3.0 -23.6 -25.6 -37.9 -26.3 -42.9 0.0 -38.5 -28.2 -16.2 -23.8
Table F-28
Table 8-B: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 889 -74 -229 -113 -617 -272 146 -4 70 119 -70 154 0
Coal -1 -3 -2 -37 -16 -74 -115 -101 74 56 84 1 -11
CT -161 -127 -286 -425 -114 -279 -159 -49 11 96 133 114 -103
High Water Coal 0 10 -7 -67 -11 -92 -182 -66 -44 -42 210 4 -24
CT -198 -129 -350 -350 -190 -337 -251 -110 0 0 8 215 -140
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 1 5 3 0 0 1
CT -160 -104 -232 -422 4 -27 -64 21 40 474 91 -23 -33
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1327 -412 -740 -583 -64 -278 65 216 -22 -42 50 83 -34
Coal -165 21 -51 -41 -229 -168 -85 -100 -19 -33 -13 14 -72
CT -78 28 -21 -25 -53 -35 -17 -4 0 11 21 72 -8
High Water Coal -139 116 -387 9 -326 -51 -136 -65 0 0 0 -1 -81
CT -61 26 -7 11 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 21 -1
Low Water Coal -145 13 -4 -57 -2 -1 0 -2 -44 41 8 4 -15
CT -108 38 -22 -59 -83 -126 -96 -69 0 71 52 52 -30
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 34 427 720 661 474 498 489 -105 -765 -1364 -488 -409 14
Net Export Sales 759 -253 -685 -744 -931 -907 -191 -105 335 461 237 316 -143
Low Loads
Economy Energy 344 204 446 563 841 692 606 90 -941 -1593 -602 -519 11
Net Export Sales 1069 -476 -959 -842 -564 -713 -74 90 159 232 123 206 -146
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -40 0 -25 27 -19 -42 44 87 -17 -15 34 40 6
PSW 4 35 53 -4 -3 11 -21 -70 -24 -51 -50 -58 -15
Low Loads
PNW 110 7 52 -4 2 3 111 17 -6 15 6 55 31
PSW -154 -42 -7 -33 -20 -47 -20 -33 0 -5 -31 -99 -41
Table F-29
Table 9: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Assured Delivery - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11772 11818 12935 16559 18253 18371 19828 20137 22749 21483 17488 13295 17057
Coal 5596 5649 5605 5678 5667 5522 4843 3659 3157 4034 5022 5711 5012
CT 3638 3472 3230 2254 2283 1975 1399 1285 51 777 1619 3347 2111
High Water Coal 5601 5654 5598 5669 5708 5591 4454 3339 2192 1750 4253 5739 4629
CT 3906 2524 2118 1613 1628 1317 509 282 0 0 136 2416 1371
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5743 5750 5750 5496 4573 4082 5326 5750 5750 5425
CT 4003 3897 4062 3205 4373 4388 4084 3895 193 3027 4049 4325 3625
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13636 12661 14380 16016 18301 17762 17567 18093 20183 19044 16820 12923 16449
Coal 4180 4349 4137 4135 3754 3445 2917 1974 1264 1834 2674 4268 3244
CT 172 224 134 132 143 101 135 165 0 15 131 405 147
High Water Coal 4394 3711 3458 3890 3495 3292 2200 1318 861 973 973 3621 2682
CT 186 60 4 41 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 28
Low Water Coal 4442 4580 4558 4588 4776 4776 4520 3628 2641 4041 4779 4777 4340
CT 207 350 287 258 979 743 766 798 0 92 823 1032 528
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1583 2080 2282 3045 3250 3862 4154 3944 3661 3271 3444 2010 3046
Net Export Sales 2308 1370 877 1640 1845 2457 3474 3944 4761 5096 4169 2735 2889
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3699 3863 4830 5298 6437 6518 5923 5125 5355 4028 4549 3277 4912
Net Export Sales 4424 3183 3425 3893 8032 5113 5243 5125 6455 5853 5274 4002 4755
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 185 154 203 84 215 195 121 438 266 358 403 370 250
PSW 331 300 293 138 116 193 52 127 60 134 198 510 204
Low Loads
PNW 224 52 120 53 140 227 249 177 33 77 66 293 142
PSW 223 311 267 142 72 102 90 65 4 10 95 574 163
Table F-30
Table 9-A: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Assured Delivery - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 9.1 -1.0 -2.5 -0.7 -3.5 -1.8 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.6 -0.2 1.4 0.0
Coal 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.3 -1.5 -2.4 -3.1 1.8 0.5 1.7 0.1 -0.4
CT -3.1 -5.2 -10.2 -20.0 -5.7 -14.9 -11.3 -5.2 21.4 12.6 11.9 5.0 -5.7
High Water Coal 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.9 -0.1 -2.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.1 -2.5 6.4 0.1 -0.5
CT -4.2 -6.9 -18.7 -18.3 -8.7 -22.1 -33.0 -30.9 0.0 0.0 34.7 14.4 -9.7
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -3.2 -4.5 -5.8 -17.7 -0.4 -1.0 -2.3 -0.6 26.1 19.2 2.2 -0.4 -1.9
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10.9 -3.0 -4.9 -3.5 -0.4 -1.5 0.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.7 -0.2
Coal -4.0 -0.1 -1.4 -1.1 -5.7 -4.7 -2.6 -4.4 -1.5 -1.7 -0.6 0.5 -2.3
CT -35.8 -5.9 -14.6 -22.4 -33.8 -34.8 -18.7 -11.3 0.0 150.0 10.1 15.1 -13.0
High Water Coal -3.4 3.2 -9.9 0.4 -8.6 -1.3 -5.3 -4.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 -2.9
CT -31.6 81.8 -55.6 51.9 -87.5 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.9 -12.5
Low Water Coal -3.3 -0.6 -0.3 -2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -2.1 1.5 0.2 0.1 -0.5
CT -39.1 -2.0 -12.5 -30.6 -19.9 -25.9 -20.5 -18.7 0.0 217.2 0.9 2.1 -14.7
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 13.8 18.8 31.1 21.7 14.4 10.8 12.9 -3.6 -17.1 -29.2 -10.8 -12.7 -0.3
Net Export Sales 65.9 -20.6 -49.6 -34.5 -35.0 -29.5 -5.6 -3.6 7.8 10.3 8.0 18.8 -5.4
Low Loads
Economy Energy 10.3 5.7 10.0 12.1 14.5 11.9 11.2 1.7 -14.9 -28.4 -11.5 -13.5 0.2
Net Export Sales 31.9 -12.9 -22.0 -17.7 -10.5 -12.2 -1.6 1.7 2.5 4.1 2.6 5.7 -3.0
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -20.9 -18.1 -19.1 64.7 -11.9 -18.1 33.0 7.6 -6.7 -6.5 1.8 7.6 -3.8
PSW 14.1 34.5 35.0 6.2 12.6 11.6 -10.3 -22.6 -14.3 5.5 -3.9 0.0 7.9
Low Loads
PNW 60.0 -29.7 10.1 -10.2 -7.3 -7.0 56.6 4.1 -13.2 24.2 -1.5 6.5 10.1
PSW -33.0 14.3 15.6 1.4 -7.7 -17.7 18.4 -15.6 0.0 -23.1 -13.6 -6.2 -5.2
Table F-31
Table 9-B: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Assured Delivery - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 979 -119 -333 -109 -657 -329 149 24 95 137 -43 182 -2
Coal 0 -4 -3 -41 -18 -84 -117 -119 55 22 83 4 -18
CT -115 -191 -367 -564 -139 -345 -178 -70 9 87 172 159 -128
High Water Coal 0 10 -9 -52 -6 -119 -169 -103 -48 -44 254 6 -23
CT -171 -186 -488 -362 -156 -373 -251 -126 0 0 35 304 -147
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -7 0 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 0
CT -134 -182 -251 -690 -19 -44 -95 -23 40 488 86 -16 -70
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1336 -393 -737 -588 -76 -266 49 208 -24 -47 59 88 -33
Coal -172 -3 -58 -48 -229 -171 -79 -90 -19 -31 -17 20 -75
CT -96 -14 -23 -38 -73 -54 -31 -21 0 9 12 53 -22
High Water Coal -157 116 -382 15 -329 -44 -124 -58 0 1 0 11 -79
CT -86 27 -5 14 -7 -1 0 0 0 0 0 11 -4
Low Water Coal -153 -28 -16 -99 2 4 0 1 -57 58 10 5 -22
CT -133 -7 -41 -114 -243 -260 -197 -183 0 63 7 21 -91
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 192 325 541 542 410 377 474 -147 -756 -1351 -416 -292 -8
Net Export Sales 917 -355 -864 -863 -995 -1028 -206 -147 344 474 309 433 -165
Low Loads
Economy Energy 344 207 439 570 816 694 596 87 -941 -1597 -589 -510 12
Net Export Sales 1069 -473 -966 -835 -589 -711 -84 87 159 228 136 215 -145
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -49 -34 -48 33 -29 -43 30 31 -19 -25 7 26 -10
PSW 41 77 76 8 13 20 -6 -37 -10 7 -8 0 15
Low Loads
PNW 84 -22 11 -6 -11 -17 90 7 -5 15 -1 18 13
PSW -110 39 36 2 -6 -22 14 -12 0 -3 -15 -38 -9
Table F-32
Table 10: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Assured Delivery - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11675 11837 13039 16530 18306 18428 19783 20127 22738 21497 17463 13270 17058
Coal 5595 5649 5606 5676 5663 5511 4846 3652 3161 4042 5019 5707 5011
CT 3602 3481 3282 2333 2296 2013 1406 1290 51 758 1577 3287 2115
High Water Coal 5601 5654 5601 5652 5699 5601 4419 3332 2190 1745 4204 5735 4619
CT 3889 2562 2231 1565 1597 1305 5OO 271 0 0 103 2301 1360
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5746 5750 5750 5496 4572 4082 5329 5749 5750 5425
CT 3986 3906 4049 3392 4395 4399 4130 3921 195 2995 4070 4313 3646
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13632 12657 14380 16017 18308 17777 17570 18088 20183 19047 16812 12917 16449
Coal 4184 4350 4128 4129 3745 3417 2918 1977 1264 1833 2676 4262 3240
CT 189 223 130 131 149 105 135 165 0 16 140 426 151
High Water Coal 4412 3717 3452 3884 3482 3227 2204 1329 861 972 973 3607 2677
CT 209 59 4 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 30
Low Water Coal 4446 4554 4559 4590 4774 4773 4520 3627 2647 4039 4781 4777 4341
CT 229 345 284 264 1011 770 772 798 0 95 871 1064 542
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1448 2064 2419 3086 3293 3929 4135 3943 3657 3255 3395 1912 3042
Net Export Sales 2173 1014 1681 1888 2524 3455 3943 4757 5080 4120 2637 2885
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3706 3854 4829 5295 6441 6516 5925 5122 5352 4033 4542 3284 4910
Net Export Sales 4431 3174 3424 3890 5036 5111 5245 5122 6452 5858 5267 4009 4753
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 199 147 172 76 208 169 123 442 268 387 448 396 254
PSW 308 293 312 142 121 216 55 128 60 75 163 469 195
Low Loads
PNW 255 51 118 52 130 218 248 175 32 78 76 337 148
PSW 181 302 278 143 82 119 88 67 4 8 81 523 156
Table F-33
Table 10-A: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Assured Delivery - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 8.2 -0.8 -1.7 -0.8 -3.2 -1.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 -0.4 1.2 0.0
Coal 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -1.7 -2.3 -3.3 1.9 0.7 1.6 0.0 -0.4
CT -4.0 -5.0 -8.8 -17.2 -5.2 -13.2 -10.8 -4.8 21.4 9.9 9.0 3.1 -5.5
High Water Coal 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -1.2 -0.3 -1.9 -4.4 -3.2 -2.2 -2.7 5.1 0.0 -0.7
CT -4.6 -5.5 -14.4 -20.8 -10.5 -22.8 -34.2 -33.6 0.0 0.0 2.0 8.9 -10.4
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -3.6 -4.2 -6.1 -12.9 0.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.1 27.5 18.0 2.7 -0.6 -1.3
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10.8 -3.0 -4.9 -3.5 -0.4 -1.4 0.3 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.6 -0.2
Coal -3.9 0.0 -1.6 -1.3 -6.0 -5.5 -2.6 -4.2 -1.5 -1.7 -0.6 0.3 -2.4
CT -29.5 -6.3 -17.2 -22.9 -31.0 -32.3 -18.7 -11.3 0.0 166.7 17.6 21.0 -10.7
High Water Coal -3.1 3.4 -10.1 0.2 -8.9 -3.3 -5.2 -3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -3.0
CT -23.2 78.8 -55.6 11.1 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.3 -6.3
Low Water Coal -3.2 -0.5 --0.3 -2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 -0.5
CT -32.6 -3.4 -13.4 -29.0 -17.3 -23.2 -19.8 -18.7 0.0 227.6 6.7 5.2 -12.4
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 4.1 19.7 38.9 23.3 16.0 12.7 12.4 -3.6 -17.2 -29.6 -12.0 -16.9 -0.4
Net Export Sales 56.2 -19.8 -41.8 -32.8 -33.5 -27.6 -6.1 -3.6 7.7 9.9 6.7 14.6 -5.5
Low Loads
Economy Energy 10.5 5.4 10.0 12.0 14.6 11.9 11.2 1.7 -15.0 -28.3 -11.6 -13.3 0.2
Net Export Sales 32.1 -13.2 -22.0 -17.7 -10.4 -12.2 -1.5 1.7 2.5 4.1 2.5 5.9 -3.0
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -15.0 -21.8 -31.5 49.0 -14.8 -29.0 35.2 8.6 -6.0 1.0 13.1 15.1 -2.3
PSW 6.2 31.4 43.8 9.2 17.5 24.9 -5.2 -22.0 -14.3 -40.9 -20.9 -8.0 3.2
Low Loads
PNW 82.1 -31.1 8.3 -11.9 -13.9 -10.7 56.0 2.9 -15.8 25.8 13.4 22.5 14.7
PSW -45.6 11.0 20.3 2.1 5.1 -4.0 15.8 -13.0 0.0 -38.5 -26.4 -14.5 -9.3
Table F-34
Table 10-B: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Assured Delivery - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 882 -100 -229 -138 -604 -272 104 14 84 151 -68 157 -1
Coal -1 -4 -2 -43 -22 -95 -114 -126 59 30 80 0 -19
CT -151 -182 -315 -485 -126 -307 -171 -65 9 68 130 99 -124
High Water Coal 0 10 -6 -69 -15 -109 -204 -110 -50 -49 205 2 -33
CT -188 -148 -375 -410 -187 -385 -260 -137 0 0 2 189 -158
Coal 0 0 0 -4 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 0
CT -151 -173 -264 -503 3 -33 -49 3 42 456 107 -28 -49
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1332 -397 -737 -587 -69 -251 52 203 -24 -44 51 82 -33
Coal -168 -2 -67 -54 -238 -199 -78 -87 -19 -32 -15 14 -79
CT -79 -15 -27 -39 -67 -50 -31 -21 0 10 21 74 -18
High Water Coal -139 122 -388 9 -342 -109 -120 -47 0 0 0 -3 -84
CT -63 26 -5 3 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 21 -2
Low Water Coal -149 -24 -15 -97 0 1 0 0 -51 56 12 5 -21
CT -111 -12 -44 -108 -211 -233 -191 -183 0 66 55 53 -77
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 57 339 678 583 453 444 455 -148 -760 -1367 -465 -390 -12
Net Export Sales 782 -341 -727 -822 -952 -961 -225 -148 340 458 260 335 -169
Low Loads
Economy Energy 351 198 438 567 820 692 598 84 -944 -1592 -596 -503 10
Net Export Sales 1076 -482 -967 -838 -585 -713 -82 84 156 233 129 222 -147
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -35 -41 -79 25 -36 -69 32 35 -17 4 52 52 -6
PSW 18 70 95 12 18 43 -3 -36 -10 -52 -43 -41 6
Low Loads
PNW 115 -23 9 -7 -21 -26 89 5 -6 16 9 62 19
PSW -152 30 47 3 4 -5 12 -10 0 -5 -29 -89 -16
Table F-35
Table 11: Federal Marketing Case B Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10910 11894 13355 16655 18618 18528 19745 20162 22732 21405 17503 13106 17051
Coal 5589 5635 5602 5696 5661 5559 4770 3582 3120 4039 4730 5676 4972
CT 3633 3464 3360 2544 2392 2155 1331 1226 53 767 1313 3072 2109
High Water Coal 5601 5651 5603 5700 5710 5688 4250 3172 2144 1811 3728 5668 4560
CT 3937 2554 2339 1782 1690 1440 459 237 0 0 47 1957 1370
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4572 4083 5320 5749 5750 5425
CT 4008 3930 4128 3623 4402 4430 4012 3836 211 2934 3898 4300 3643
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 12484 12881 14958 16403 18091 17495 17228 17716 20195 19082 16393 12849 16315
Coal 4271 4244 4072 4050 3658 3392 2733 1799 1245 1841 2355 4082 3145
CT 198 185 112 126 182 135 123 170 0 11 110 321 139
High Water Coal 4495 3499 3300 3569 3394 3297 1918 856 859 1008 973 3500 2556
CT 223 15 4 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 21
Low Water Coal 4549 4527 4534 4604 4773 4773 4521 3626 2685 4019 4773 4772 4346
CT 256 296 277 288 1185 968 730 896 0 61 787 974 560
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1393 1896 1995 2597 2789 3360 3721 3703 3647 3882 3544 2190 2890
Net Export Sales 2493 2551 2650 3252 3444 4015 4376 4803 4747 4982 4644 3290 3768
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3312 3672 4406 4741 5419 5466 5070 4549 5344 4694 4472 3487 4554
Net Export Sales 4412 4327 5061 5396 6074 6121 5725 5649 6444 5794 5572 4587 5432
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 243 173 231 101 257 208 99 298 274 382 388 387 253
PSW 320 290 282 127 81 164 27 82 67 119 192 496 187
Low Loads
PNW 156 72 99 62 167 245 100 112 31 64 103 305 126
PSW 247 220 194 114 57 99 40 42 5 9 60 434 127
Table F-36
Table 11-A: Federal Marketing Case B Operation - Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1.1 -0.4 0.7 -0.1 -1.5 -0.9 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0
Coal -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -3.8 -5.2 0.6 0.7 -4.2 -0.5 -1.2
CT -3.2 -5.4 -6.6 -9.7 -1.2 -7.1 -15.6 -9.5 26.2 11.2 -9.3 -3.6 -5.8
High Water Coal 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -8.1 -7.8 -4.3 0.9 -6.8 -1.1 -2.0
CT -3.4 -5.8 -10.2 -9.8 -5.3 -14.8 -39.6 -41.9 0.0 0.0 -53.5 -7.3 -9.7
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -3.1 -3.7 -4.3 -7.0 0.2 0.0 -4.0 -2.1 37.9 15.6 -1.6 -0.9 -1.4
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.6 -3.0 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 0.0 -2.2 0.1 -1.0
Coal -1.9 -2.5 -2.9 -3.2 -8.2 -6.2 -8.8 -12.8 -3.0 -1.3 -12.5 -3.9 -5.2
CT -26.1 -22.3 -28.7 -25.9 -15.7 -12.9 -25.9 -8.6 0.0 83.3 -7.6 -8.8 -17.8
High Water Coal -1.2 -2.7 -14.1 -7.9 -11.2 -1.2 -17.5 -37.8 -0.2 3.7 0.0 -3.0 -7.4
CT -18.0 -54.5 -55.6 -74.1 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -65.8 -34.4
Low Water Coal -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 -0.4
CT -24.7 -17.1 -15.5 -22.6 -3.0 -3.5 -24.2 -8.7 0.0 110.3 -3.6 -3.7 -9.5
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 0.1 9.9 14.6 3.8 -1.8 -3.6 1.1 -9.5 -17.4 -16.0 -8.2 -4.9 -5.4
Net Export Sales 79.2 47.9 52.2 29.9 21.3 15.2 18.9 17.4 7.5 7.8 20.3 42.9 23.4
Low Loads
Economy Energy -1.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 -3.6 -6.1 -4.8 -9.7 -15.1 -16.6 -13.0 -7.9 -7.1
Net Export Sales 31.5 18.4 -15.3 14.1 8.1 5.1 7.5 12.1 2.4 3.0 8.4 21.1 10.8
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 3.8 -8.0 -8.0 98.0 5.3 -12.6 8.8 -26.8 -3.9 -0.3 -2.0 12.5 -2.7
PSW 10.3 30.0 30.0 -2.3 -21.4 -5.2 -53.4 -50.0 -4.3 -6.3 -6.8 -2.7 -1.1
Low Loads
PNW 11.4 -2.7 -9.2 5.1 10.6 0.4 -37.1 -34.1 -18.4 3.2 53.7 10.9 -2.3
PSW -25.8 -19.1 -16.0 -18.6 -26.9 -20.2 -47.4 -45.5 25.0 -30.8 -45.5 -29.1 -26.2
Table F-37
Table 11-B: Federal Marketing Case B Operation - Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 117 -43 87 -13 -292 -172 66 49 78 59 -28 -7 -8
Coal -7 -18 -6 -23 -24 -47 -190 -196 18 27 -209 -31 -58
CT -120 -199 -237 -274 -30 -165 -246 -129 11 77 -134 -116 -130
High Water Coal 0 7 -4 -21 -4 -22 -373 -270 -96 17 -271 -65 -92
CT -140 -156 -267 -193 -94 -250 -301 -171 0 0 -54 -155 -148
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 6 -6 0 0 0
CT -129 -149 -185 -272 10 -2 -167 -82 58 395 -65 -41 -52
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 184 -173 -159 -201 286 -533 -290 -169 -12 -9 -368 14 -167
Coal -81 -108 -123 -133 -325 -224 -263 -265 -38 -24 -336 -166 -174
CT -70 -53 -45 -44 -34 -20 -43 -16 0 5 -9 -31 -30
High Water Coal -56 -96 -540 -306 -430 -39 -406 -520 -2 36 0 -110 -205
CT -49 -18 -5 -20 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -25 -11
Low Water Coal -46 -51 -40 -83 -1 1 1 -1 -13 36 4 0 -16
CT -84 -61 -51 -84 -37 -35 -233 -85 0 32 -29 -37 -59
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 2 171 254 94 -51 -125 41 -388 -770 -740 -316 -112 -164
Net Export Sales 1102 826 909 749 604 530 696 712 330 360 784 988 714
Low Loads
Economy Energy -43 16 15 13 -202 -358 -257 -489 -952 -931 -666 -300 -346
Net Export Sales 1057 671 670 668 453 297 398 611 148 169 434 800 532
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 9 -15 -20 50 13 -30 8 -109 -11 -1 -8 43 -7
PSW 30 67 65 -3 -22 -9 -31 -82 -3 -8 -14 -14 -2
Low Loads
PNW 16 -2 -10 3 16 1 -59 -58 -7 2 36 30 -3
PSW -86 -52 -37 -26 -21 -25 -36 -35 1 -4 -50 -178 -45
Table F-38
Table 12: Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Power Sale - Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10803 11962 13330 16673 18660 18625 19711 20220 22721 21360 17580 13115 17063
Coal 5593 5648 5607 5718 5681 5605 4948 3764 3155 4001 4918 5698 5028
CT 4331 4224 4158 3376 3099 2882 1944 1619 71 882 1726 3749 2672
High Water Coal 5601 5654 5607 5715 5716 5702 4562 3457 2208 1770 3981 5696 4639
CT 4642 3316 3183 2515 2499 2261 855 479 0 0 128 2625 1875
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5749 5750 5750 5496 4573 4081 5329 5749 5750 5426
Low Loads CT 4689 4671 4878 4482 5043 5068 4798 4536 249 3183 4541 4943 4257
Ave Water Hydro 11997 12876 14659 16864 17926 17765 17744 18194 20205 19137 16850 12844 16422
Coal 4410 4368 4282 4109 3999 3587 2887 1945 1245 1816 2613 4210 3289
CT 879 740 688 452 572 401 310 348 1 54 263 714 452
High Water Coal 4627 3608 3757 3876 3677 3349 2074 1256 861 987 973 3541 2715
CT 955 185 188 264 111 78 0 0 0 0 0 135 160
Low Water Coal 4632 4587 4646 4548 4790 4784 4534 3637 2742 3915 4760 4785 4363
CT 1109 880 1129 746 1915 1703 1534 1577 6 321 1367 1671 1163
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1334 1714 1752 2401 2561 3177 3441 3756 3922 4194 3543 2198 2832
Net Export Sales 1987 1714 2405 3054 3214 3830 4094 4409 4575 4847 4196 2851 3485
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3023 3317 3874 4512 4982 5167 4938 4712 5674 5087 4681 3433 4451
Net Export Sales 3676 3317 4527 5165 5635 5820 5591 5365 6327 5740 5334 4086 5104
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 240 200 265 84 275 217 104 372 244 403 438 379 268
PSW 308 263 252 120 81 153 30 116 69 95 138 461 174
Low Loads
PNW 172 111 128 74 174 277 158 137 38 84 95 414 155
PSW 234 186 165 78 63 69 39 50 1 5 80 423 116
Table F-39
Table 12-A: Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Power Sale - Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Coal -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 1.7 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
CT 15.4 15.3 15.6 19.8 28.0 24.2 23.3 19.5 69.0 27.8 19.3 17.6 19.3
High Water Coal 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -1.3 0.4 -1.4 -1.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3
CT 13.9 22.4 22.1 27.3 40.1 33.8 12.5 17.4 0.0 0.0 26.7 24.3 23.5
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 13.3 14.5 13.1 15.1 14.8 14.4 14.8 15.8 62.7 25.4 14.6 13.9 15.2
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -2.5 -1.4 -3.0 1.6 -2.5 -1.5 1.3 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.4
Coal 1.3 0.4 2.1 -1.8 0.4 -0.8 -3.6 -5.8 -3.0 -2.6 -2.9 -0.9 -0.9
CT 228.0 210.9 338.2 165.9 164.8 158.7 86.7 87.1 ####### 800.0 121.0 102.8 167.5
High Water Coal 1.7 0.4 -2.2 0.0 -3.8 0.4 -10.8 -8.7 0.0 1.5 0.0 -1.9 -1.7
CT 251.1 460.6 1988.9 877.8 1287.5 7700.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 255.3 400.0
Low Water Coal 0.8 0.2 1.6 -3.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.6 -1.7 -0.2 0.3 0.0
CT 226.2 146.5 244.2 100.5 56.7 69:8 59.3 60.8 ####### 1006.9 67.5 65.3 87.9
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -4.1 -0.6 0.6 -4.1 -9.8 -8.8 -6.5 -8.2 -11.2 -9.3 -8.2 -4.5 -7.3
Net Export Sales 42.8 -0.6 38.1 22.0 13.2 9.9 11.2 7.8 3.6 4.9 8.7 23.8 14.1
Low Loads
Economy Energy -9.9 -9.3 -1 -4.6 -11.4 -11.3 -7.3 -6.5 -9.9 -9.6 -8.9 -9.3 -9.2
Net Export Sales 9.6 -9.3 3.1 9.2 0.2 -0.1 4.9 6.5 0.5 2.0 3.8 7.9 4.2
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 2.6 6.4 5.6 64.7 12.7 -8.8 14.3 -8.6 -14.4 5.2 10.6 10.2 3.1
PSW 6.2 17.9 16.1 -7.7 -21.4 -11.6 -48.3 -29.3 -1.4 -25.2 -33.0 -9.6 -7.9
Low Loads
PNW 22.9 50.0 17.4 25.4 15.2 13.5 -0.6 -19.4 0.0 35.5 41.8 50.5 20.2
PSW -29.7 -31.6 -28.6 -44.3 -19.2 -44.4 -48.7 -35.1 -75.0 -61.5 -27.3 -30.9 -32.6
Table F-40
Table 12-B: Capacity Ownership - 1O0% PUB - Power Sale - Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10 25 62 5 -250 -75 32 107 67 14 49 2 4
Coal -3 -5 -1 -1 -4 -1 -12 -14 53 -11 -21 -9 -2
CT 578 561 561 558 677 562 367 264 29 192 279 561 433
High Water Coal 0 10 0 -6 2 -8 -61 15 -32 -24 -18 -37 -13
CT 565 606 577 540 715 571 95 71 0 0 27 513 357
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 4 3 0 0 1
CT 552 592 565 587 651 636 619 618 96 644 578 602 562
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -303 -178 -458 260 -451 -263 226 309 -2 46 89 9 -60
Coal 58 16 87 -74 16 -29 -109 -119 -38 -49 -78 -38 -30
CT 611 502 531 282 356 246 144 162 1 48 144 362 283
High Water Coal 76 13 -83 1 -147 13 -250 -120 0 15 0 -69 -46
CT 683 152 179 237 103 77 0 0 0 0 0 97 128
Low Water Coal 37 9 72 -139 16 12 14 10 44 -68 -9 13 1
CT 769 523 801 374 693 700 571 596 6 292 551 660 544
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -57 -11 11 -102 -279 -308 -239 -335 -495 -428 -317 -104 -222
Net Export Sales 596 -11 664 551 374 345 414 318 158 225 336 549 431
Low Loads
Economy Energy -332 -339 -517 -216 -639 -657 -389 -326 -622 -538 -457 -354 -449
Net Export Sales 321 -339 136 437 14 -5 264 327 31 115 196 299 204
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 6 12 14 33 31 -21 13 -35 -41 20 42 35 8
PSW 18 40 35 -10 -22 -20 -28 48 -1 -32 -68 -49 -15
Low Loads
PNW 32 37 19 15 23 33 -1 -33 0 22 28 139 26
PSW -99 -86 -66 -62 -15 -55 -37 -27 -3 -8 -30 -189 -56
Table F-41
Table 13: Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% GPUB/IOU - Power Sales - Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10810 11963 13334 16674 18666 18625 19709 20219 22720 21355 17581 13115 17064
Coal 5593 5649 5607 5718 5684 5607 4962 3796 3161 4021 4938 5701 5036
CT 4337 4231 4167 3398 3136 2916 1982 1640 71 916 1761 3763 2693
High Water Coal 5601 5655 5608 5715 5716 5703 4577 3506 2210 1772 4029 5695 4649
CT 4642 3341 3190 2549 2546 2314 915 538 0 0 147 2676 1905
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5750 5750 5750 5496 4573 4081 5326 5749 5750 5426
CT 4700 4667 4877 4493 5044 5068 4807 4541 249 3195 4547 4944 4261
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11948 12859 14614 16915 17872 17761 17762 18233 20208 19135 16857 12848 16418
Coal 4414 4377 4294 4113 4038 3601 2882 1926 1246 1819 2614 4240 3297
CT 965 807 753 470 601 410 319 361 1 56 274 749 480
High Water Coal 4631 3607 3769 3890 3682 3385 2063 1253 861 995 973 3575 2724
CT 1150 189 178 252 111 85 0 0 0 0 0 134 175
Low Water Coal 4632 4619 4646 4561 4789 4783 4533 3636 2755 3919 4769 4785 4369
CT 1206 999 1191 794 1922 1714 1566 1635 6 335 1392 1709 1206
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1341 1720 1760 2430 2604 3217 3490 3798 3924 4230 3592 2205 2857
Net Export Sales 1994 1720 2413 3083 3257 3870 4143 4451 4577 4883 4245 2858 3510
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3072 3381 3897 4583 4993 5184 4955 4745 5676 5089 4700 3510 4481
Net Export Sales 3725 3381 4550 5236 5646 5837 5608 5398 6329 5742 5353 4163 5134
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 242 204 267 87 280 225 103 375 255 400 442 374 272
PSW 300 257 246 120 81 150 31 104 54 86 130 455 167
Low Loads
PNW 176 114 127 75 177 265 150 142 35 85 97 410 154
PSW 241 191 169 83 62 79 45 50 1 4 76 430 120
Table F-42
Table 13-A: Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% GPUB/IOU - Power Sales - Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Coal -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1
CT 15.6 15.5 15.8 20.6 29.5 25.7 25.7 21.0 69.0 32.8 21.7 18.0 20.3
High Water Coal 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 1.9 -1.3 -1.2 0.8 -0.7 -0.1
CT 13.9 23.3 22.4 29.1 42.7 36.9 20.4 31.9 0.0 0.0 45.5 26.7 25.5
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 13.6 14.4 13.1 15.4 14.8 14.4 15.0 15.9 62.7 25.8 14.7 13.9 15.3
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -2.9 -1.5 -3.3 1.9 -2.7 -1.5 1.4 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 -0.4
Coal 1.4 0.6 2.4 -1.7 1.4 -0.4 -3.8 -6.7 -2.9 -2.5 -2.9 -0.2 -0.7
CT 260.1 239.1 379.6 176.5 178.2 164.5 92.2 94.1 ####### 833.3 130.3 112.8 184.0
High Water Coal 1.8 0.3 -1.8 0.4 -3.7 1.5 -11.2 -8.9 0.0 2.4 0.0 -1.0 -1.3
CT 322.8 472.7 1877.8 833.3 1287.5 8400.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 252.6 446.9
Low Water Coal 0.8 0.9 1.6 -2.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 2.1 -1.6 0.0 0.3 0.2
CT 254.7 179.8 263.1 113.4 57.3 70.9 62.6 66.7 ####### 1055.2 70.6 69.0 94.8
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -3.6 -0.3 1.1 -2.9 -8.3 -7.7 -5.2 -7.2 -11.2 -8.5 -6.9 -4.2 -6.5
Net Export Sales 43.3 -0.3 38.6 23.2 14.7 11.0 12.6 8.8 3.6 5.6 10.0 24.1 14.9
Low Loads
Economy Energy -8.4 -7.5 -11.3 -3.1 -11.2 -11.0 -7.0 -5.8 -9.8 -9.5 -8.5 -7.3 -8.6
Net Export Sales 11.0 -7.5 3.6 10.7 0.4 0.2 5.3 7.1 0.5 2.1 4.2 9.9 4.8
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 3.4 8.5 6.4 70.6 14.8 -5.5 13.2 -7.9 -10.5 4.4 11.6 8.7 4.6
PSW 3.4 15.2 13.4 -7.7 -21.4 -13.3 -46.6 -36.6 -22.9 -32.3 -36.9 -10.8 -11.6
Low Loads
PNW 25.7 54.1 16.5 27.1 17.2 8.6 -5.7 -16.5 -7.9 37.1 44.8 49.1 19.4
PSW -27.6 -29.8 -26.8 -40.7 -20.5 -36.3 -40.8 -35.1 -75.0 -69.2 -30.9 -29.7 -30.2
F91
Table F-43
Table 13-B: Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% GPUB/IOU - Power Sales - Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 17 26 66 6 -244 -75 30 106 66 9 50 2 5
Coal -3 -4 -1 -1 -1 1 2 18 59 9 -1 -6 6
CT 584 568 570 580 714 596 405 285 29 226 314 575 454
High Water Coal 0 11 1 -6 2 -7 -46 64 -30 -22 30 -38 -3
CT 565 631 584 574 762 624 155 130 0 0 46 564 387
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1
CT 563 588 564 598 652 636 628 623 96 656 584 603 566
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -352 -195 -503 311 -505 -267 244 348 1 44 96 13 -64
Coal 62 25 99 -70 55 -15 -114 -138 -37 -46 -77 -8 -22
CT 697 569 596 300 385 255 153 175 1 50 155 397 311
High Water Coal 80 12 -71 15 -142 49 -261 -123 0 23 0 -35 -37
CT 878 156 169 225 103 84 0 0 0 0 0 96 143
Low Water Coal 37 41 72 -126 15 11 13 9 57 -64 0 13 7
CT 866 642 863 422 700 711 603 654 6 306 576 698 587
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -50 -5 19 -73 -236 -268 -190 -293 -493 -392 -268 -97 -197
Net Export Sales 603 -5 672 580 417 385 463 360 160 261 385 556 456
Low Loads
Economy Energy -283 -275 -494 -145 -628 -640 -372 -293 -620 -536 -438 -277 -419
Net Export Sales 370 -275 159 508 25 13 281 360 33 117 215 376 234
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads PNW 8 16 16 36 36 -13 12 -32 -30 17 46 30 12
PSW 10 34 29 -10 -22 -23 -27 -60 -16 -41 -76 -55 -22
Low Loads
PNW 36 40 18 16 26 21 -9 -28 -3 23 30 135 25
PSW -92 -81 -62 -57 -16 -45 -31 -27 -3 -9 -34 -182 -52
Table F-44
Table 14: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 1O0% PUB - Power Sales
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10938 11913 13365 16655 18377 18433 19738 20287 22827 21416 17557 13112 17051
Coal 5585 5634 5602 5686 5659 5534 4756 3495 3156 4025 4712 5656 4958
CT 4237 4021 3942 3089 3028 2682 1669 1439 88 953 1589 3588 2527
High Water Coal 5601 5643 5597 5691 5709 5617 4172 3015 2118 1764 3674 5584 4516
CT 4555 3049 2994 2350 2260 1944 591 221 0 0 35 2444 1703
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4572 4083 5325 5749 5750 5425
CT 4632 4510 4724 4199 5058 5068 4629 4427 311 3566 4508 4916 4212
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 12208 12794 14509 16541 17509 17239 17440 17923 20213 19127 16472 12857 16236
Coal 4311 4227 4147 3955 3756 3341 2539 1667 1206 1755 2280 4019 3100
CT 737 603 575 347 485 338 255 284 0 63 222 624 378
High Water Coal 4577 3559 3327 3437 3379 3256 1668 661 858 973 973 3407 2506
CT 777 172 121 94 92 67 0 0 0 0 0 107 119
Low Water Coal 4602 4532 4642 4518 4787 4784 4530 3635 2703 3905 4723 4787 4346
CT 920 758 1057 616 1877 1660 1360 1430 3 362 1300 1583 1077
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1325 1795 1918 2476 2524 3145 3423 3346 3181 3442 3147 2012 2644
Net Export Sales 3150 3175 3298 3856 3904 4525 4803 5171 5006 5267 4972 3837 4247
Low Loads
Economy Energy 2924 3269 3840 4338 4668 4788 4584 4114 4736 4105 3950 3044 4033
Net Export Sales 4749 4649 5220 5718 6048 6168 5964 5939 6561 5930 5775 4869 5636
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 226 184 253 118 257 247 97 316 262 410 394 476 269
PSW 305 254 257 109 79 146 16 71 59 88 118 371 157
Low Loads
PNW 242 101 138 98 186 307 77 127 34 77 101 443 161
PSW 99 106 115 41 45 49 23 23 2 4 32 238 65
Table F-45
Table 14-A: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Power Sale
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1.3 -0.2 0.7 -0.1 -2.8 -1.4 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coal -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -4.1 -7.5 1.7 0.3 -4.6 -0.0 -1.4
CT 12.9 9.8 9.6 9.6 25.0 15.6 5.8 6.2 109.5 38.1 9.8 12.5 12.9
High Water Coal 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -1.6 -9.8 -12.4 -5.4 -1.7 -8.1 -2.6 -2.9
CT 11.7 12.5 14.9 19.0 26.7 15.0 -22.2 -45.8 0.0 0.0 -65.3 15.7 12.2
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 12.0 10.6 9.5 7.8 15.2 14.4 10.8 13.0 103.3 40.4 13.8 13.2 14.0
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -0.7 -2.0 -4.0 -0.4 -4.7 -4.4 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 -1.7 0.2 -1.5
Coal -0.9 -2.9 -1.1 -5.5 -5.7 -7.6 -15.3 -19.2 -6.0 -5.9 -15.3 -5.4 -6.6
CT 175.0 153.4 266.2 104.1 124.5 118.1 53.6 52.7 0.0 950.0 86.6 77.3 123.7
High Water Coal 0.6 -1.0 -13.4 -11.3 -11.6 -2.4 -28.2 -52.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -5.6 -9.2
CT 185.7 421.2 1244.4 248.1 1050.0 6600.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 181.6 271.9
Low Water Coal 0.2 -1.0 1.5 -3.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -2.0 -1.0 0.3 -0.4
CT 170.6 112.3 222.3 65.6 53.6 65.5 41.2 45.8 ####### 1148.3 59.3 56.6 74.0
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -4.7 4.1 10.2 -1.1 -11.1 -9.8 -7.0 -18.2 -28.0 -25.5 -18.5 -12.6 -13.4
Net Export Sales 126.5 84.1 89.4 54.1 37.5 29.8 30.5 26.4 13.3 14.0 28.8 66.7 39.0
Low Loads ___
Economy Energy -12.8 -10.6 -12.5 -8.2 -17.0 -17.8 -13.9 -18.3 -24.8 -27.0 -23.1 -19.6 -17.7
Net Export Sales 41.5 27.2 18.9 20.9 7.6 5.9 12.0 17.9 4.2 5.4 12.4 28.6 15.0
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -3.4 -2.1 0.8 131.4 5.3 3.8 6.6 -22.4 -8.1 7.0 -0.5 38.4 3.5
PSW 5.2 13.9 18.4 -16.2 -23.3 -15.6 -72.4 -56.7 -15.7 -30.7 -42.7 -27.3 -16.9
Low Loads
PNW 72.9 36.5 26.6 66.1 23.2 25.8 -51.6 -25.3 -10.5 24.2 50.7 61.1 24.8
PSW -70.3 -61.0 -50.2 -70.7 -42.3 -60.5 -69.7 -70.1 -50.0 -69.2 -70.9 -61.1 -62.2
Table F-46
Table 14-B: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Power Sale
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 145 -24 97 -13 -533 -267 59 174 173 70 26 -1 -8
Coal -11 -19 -6 -33 -26 -72 -204 -283 54 13 -227 -51 -72
CT 484 358 345 271 606 362 92 84 46 263 142 400 288
High Water Coal 0 -1 -10 -30 -5 -93 -451 -427 -122 -30 -325 -149 -136
CT 478 339 388 375 476 254 -169 -187 0 0 -66 332 185
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 6 -1 0 0 0
CT 495 431 411 304 666 636 450 509 158 1027 545 575 517
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -92 -260 -608 -63 -868 -789 -78 38 6 36 -289 22 -246
Coal -41 -125 -48 -228 -227 -275 -457 -397 -77 -110 -411 -229 -219
CT 469 365 418 177 269 183 89 - 98 0 57 103 272 209
High Water Coal 26 -36 -513 -438 -445 -80 -656 -715 -3 1 0 -203 -255
CT 505 139 112 67 84 66 0 0 0 0 0 69 87
Low Water Coal 7 -46 68 -169 13 12 10 8 5 -78 -46 15 -16
CT 580 401 729 244 655 657 397 449 3 333 484 572 458
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -66 70 177 -27 -316 -340 -257 -745 -1236 -1180 -713 -290 -410
Net Export Sales 1759 1450 1557 1353 1064 1040 1123 1080 589 645 1112 1535 1193
Low Loads
Economy Energy -431 -387 -551 -390 -953 -1036 -743 -924 -1560 -1520 -1188 -743 -867
Net Export Sales 1394 993 829 990 427 344 637 901 265 305 637 1082 736
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -8 -4 2 67 13 9 6 -91 -23 27 -2 132 9
PSW 15 31 40 -21 -24 -27 -42 -93 -11 -39 -88 -139 -32
Low Loads
PNW 102 27 29 39 35 63 -82 -43 -4 15 34 168 32
PSW -234 -166 -116 -99 -33 -75 -53 -54 -2 -9 -78 -374 -107
Table F-47
Table 15: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Power Sale
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 10942 11915 13367 16655 18387 18433 19738 20281 22827 21415 17556 13112 17052
Coal 5585 5632 5602 5690 5662 5539 4776 3525 3161 4039 4733 5661 4967
CT 4245 4037 3959 3113 3062 2720 1704 1460 89 991 1621 3604 2550
High Water Coal 5601 5643 5597 5691 5709 5621 4199 3055 2119 1771 3719 5589 4526
CT 4556 3057 3029 2391 2312 2026 627 296 0 0 37 2473 1734
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4572 4083 5322 5749 5750 5425
CT 4631 4515 4724 4221 5057 5068 4643 4435 310 3591 4513 4920 4219
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 12170 12769 14479 16579 17495 17219 17440 17944 20216 19136 16483 12862 16233
Coal 4317 4238 4165 3952 3786 3357 2546 1658 1206 1756 2285 4052 311
CT 811 674 616 364 513 358 265 295 0 67 223 654 403
High Water Coal 4583 3557 3330 3410 3392 3292 1649 646 861 973 973 3412 2506
CT 946 174 107 100 91 80 0 0 0 0 0 106 133
Low Water Coal 4605 4544 4642 4542 4787 4784 4530 3635 2717 3955 4751 4789 4357
CT 1042 801 1138 689 1886 1692 1402 1508 3 389 1287 1631 1122
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1333 1809 1935 2506 2574 3181 3474 3387 3178 3476 3191 2028 2673
Net Export Sales 3158 3189 3315 3886 3954 4561 4854 5212 5003 5301 5016 3853 4276
Low Loads
Economy Energy 2972 3330 3871 4392 4709 4804 4597 4140 4733 4115 3968 3117 4065
Net Export Sales 4797 4710 5251 5772 6089 6184 5977 5965 6558 5940 5793 4942 5668
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 228 184 253 120 263 250 96 318 268 409 392 472 271
PSW 298 253 256 109 76 143 16 64 46 73 113 371 151
Low Loads
PNW 235 103 140 95 186 300 76 129 33 76 102 437 160
PSW 114 110 120 47 47 59 24 23 1 3 32 247 69
Table F-48
Table 15-A: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Power Sale
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1.4 -0.2 0.7 -0.1 -2.8 -1.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coal -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -1.2 -3.7 -6.7 1.9 0.7 -4.2 -0.8 -1.3
CT 13.1 10.2 10.1 10.5 26.4 17.2 8.1 7.7 111.9 43.6 12.0 13.0 13.9
High Water Coal 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -1.6 -9.2 -11.2 -5.4 -1.3 -7.0 -2.5 -2.7
CT 11.7 12.8 16.2 21.1 29.6 19.9 -17.5 -27.5 0.0 0.0 -63.4 17.1 14.2
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 11.9 10.7 9.5 8.4 15.1 14.4 11.1 13.2 102.6 41.4 13.9 13.3 14.2
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -1.1 -2.2 -4.2 -0.2 -4.8 -4.5 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 -1.7 0.2 -1.5
Coal -0.8 -2.6 -0.7 -5.5 -4.9 -7.2 -15.0 -19.7 -6.0 -5.8 -15.1 -4.6 -6.3
CT 202.6 183.2 292.4 114.1 137.5 131.0 59.6 58.6 0.0 1016.7 87.4 85.8 138.5
High Water Coal 0.7 -1.1 -13.3 -12.0 -11.3 -1.3 -29.0 -53.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -5.5 -9.2
CT 247.8 427.3 1088.9 270.4 1037.5 7900.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 178.9 315.6
Low Water Coal 0.2 -0.7 1.5 -3.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 -0.7 -0.4 0.4 -0.1
CT 206.5 124.4 247.0 85.2 54.3 68.7 45.6 53.7 ####### 1241.4 57.7 61.3 81.3
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -4.2 4.9 11.1 0.1 -9.4 -8.7 -5.6 -17.2 -28.1 -24.8 -17.3 -11.9 -12.5
Net Export Sales 127.0 84.9 90.4 55.3 39.2 30.9 31.9 27.4 13.3 14.7 29.9 67.4 40.0
Low Loads
Economy Energy -11.4 -8.9 -11.8 -7.1 -16.2 -17.5 -13.7 -17.8 -24.8 -26.8 -22.8 -17.7 -17.0
Net Export Sales 43.0 28.8 19.6 22.1 8.3 6.2 12.2 18.4 4.2 5.6 12.7 30.5 15.7
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -2.6 -2.1 0.8 135.3 7.8 5.0 5.5 -21.9 -6.0 6.8 -1.0 37.2 4.2
PSW 2.8 13.5 18.0 -16.2 -26.2 -17.3 -72.4 -61.0 -34.3 -42.5 -45.1 -27.3 -20.1
Low Loads
PNW 67.9 39.2 28.4 61.0 23.2 23.0 -52.2 -24.1 -13.2 22.6 52.2 58.9 24.0
PSW -65.8 -59.6 -48.1 -66.4 -39.7 -52.4 -68.4 -70.1 -75.0 -76.9 -70.9 -59.6 -59.9
Table F-49
Table 15-B: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Power Sale
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 149 -22 99 -13 -523 -267 59 168 173 69 25 -1 -7
Coal -11 -21 -6 -29 -23 -67 -184 -253 59 27 -206 -46 -63
CT 492 374 362 295 640 400 127 105 47 301 174 416 311
High Water Coal 0 -1 -10 -30 -5 -89 -424 -387 -121 -23 -280 -144 -126
CT 479 347 423 416 528 336 -133 -112 0 0 -64 361 21
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 6 -4 0 0 0
CT 494 436 411 326 665 636 464 517 157 1052 550 579 524
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -130 -285 -638 -25 -882 -809 -78 59 9 45 -278 27 -249
Coal -35 -114 -30 -231 -197 -259 -450 -406 -77 -109 -406 -196 -209
CT 543 436 459 194 297 203 99 109 0 61 104 302 234
High Water Coal 32 -38 -510 -465 -432 -44 -675 -730 0 1 0 -198 -255
CT 674 141 98 73 83 79 0 0 0 0 0 68 101
Low Water Coal 10 -34 68 -145 13 12 10 8 19 -28 -18 17 -5
CT 702 444 810 317 664 689 439 527 3 360 471 620 503
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -58 84 194 3 -266 -304 -206 -704 -1239 -1146 -669 -274 -381
Net Export Sales 1767 1464 1574 1383 1114 1076 1174 1121 586 679 1156 1551 1222
Low Loads
Economy Energy -383 -326 -520 -336 -912 -1020 -730 -898 -1563 -1510 -1170 -670 -835
Net Export Sales 1442 1054 860 1044 468 360 650 927 262 315 655 1155 768
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -6 -4 2 69 19 12 5 -89 -17 26 -4 128 11
PSW 8 30 39 -21 -27 -30 -42 -100 -24 -54 -93 -139 -38
Low Loads
PNW 95 29 31 36 35 56 -83 -41 -5 14 35 162 31
PSW -219 -162 -111 -93 -31 -65 -52 -54 -3 -10 -78 -365 -103
Table F-50
Table 16: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Power Sales
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11152 11871 13381 16528 18382 18537 19815 20185 22769 21421 17434 13133 17051
Coal 5592 5648 5607 5702 5675 5563 4836 3698 3202 3976 4954 5697 5012
CT 4224 4014 3943 3101 3016 2686 1717 1561 86 875 1803 3680 2559
High Water Coal 5601 5654 5601 5695 5715 5644 4374 3386 2186 1746 4050 5694 4612
CT 4524 3090 2884 2354 2358 2075 539 411 0 0 171 2593 1750
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4573 4084 5331 5749 5750 5426
CT 4613 4492 4740 4208 5045 5052 4768 4564 300 3548 4574 4924 4236
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 12328 12838 14437 16714 17777 17748 17790 18281 20188 19097 16869 12854 16410
Coal 4389 4332 4284 4104 4022 3569 2844 1925 1233 1790 2612 4197 3275
CT 823 613 703 407 556 353 277 336 0 58 268 708 425
High Water Coal 4625 3632 3779 3910 3704 3340 2046 1210 861 973 973 3553 2717
CT 868 220 243 270 163 80 0 0 0 0 0 140 165
Low Water Coal 4623 4553 4646 4510 4788 4784 4533 3637 2681 3913 4758 4786 4351
CT 1006 791 1129 619 1857 1641 1358 1480 3 351 1359 1666 1105
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1528 1970 2135 2598 2822 3472 3779 3621 3157 3331 3531 2158 2842
Net Export Sales 2253 2015 2180 2643 2867 3517 3824 4346 4982 5156 4256 2883 3410
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3261 3700 4278 4902 5418 5647 5479 4757 4737 4114 4704 3426 4539
Net Export Sales 3986 3745 4323 4947 5463 5692 5524 5482 6562 5939 5429 4151 5107
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 197 161 210 104 237 209 100 389 267 388 438 377 257
PSW 321 280 290 132 110 190 28 96 55 148 153 477 190
Low Loads
PNW 195 104 117 74 175 270 157 138 36 86 93 430 156
PSW 214 196 196 91 70 71 50 38 1 5 83 414 119
Table F-5l
Table 16-A: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Power Sale
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 3.3 -0.6 0.9 -0.8 -2.8 -0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.0
Coal -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.8 -2.5 -2.1 3.2 -0.9 0.3 -0.2 -0.4
CT 12.5 9.6 9.6 10.0 24.5 15.8 8.9 15.2 104.8 26.8 24.6 15.4 14.3
High Water Coal 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 -1.2 -5.4 -1.6 -2.4 -2.7 1.3 -0.7 -0.9
CT 11.0 14.0 10.7 19.2 32.2 22.8 -29.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 69.3 22.8 15.3
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 11.5 10.1 9.9 8.0 14.9 14.0 14.1 16.5 96.1 39.7 15.4 13.4 14.6
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 0.2 -1.7 -4.5 0.7 -3.3 -1.6 1.6 2.2 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 -0.4
Coal 0.9 -0.5 2.1 -1.9 1.0 -1.3 -5.1 -6.7 -3.9 -4.0 -2.9 -1.2 -1.3
CT 207.1 157.6 347.8 139.4 157.4 127.7 66.9 80.6 0.0 866.7 125.2 101.1 151.5
High Water Coal 1.6 1.0 -1.6 0.9 -3.1 0.1 -12.0 -12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.6
CT 219.1 566.7 2600.0 900.0 1937.5 7900.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 268.4 415.6
Low Water Coal 0.6 -0.5 1.6 -3.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.6 -1.8 -0.2 0.3 -0.3
CT 195.9 121.6 244.2 66.4 52.0 63.6 41.0 50.9 ####### 1110.3 66.5 64.8 78.5
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 9.8 14.2 22.6 3.8 -0.6 -0.4 2.7 -11.5 -28.5 -27.9 -8.5 -6.3 -6.9
Net Export Sales 62.0 16.8 25.2 5.6 1.0 0.9 3.9 6.2 12.8 11.6 10.3 25.2 11.7
Low Loads
Economy Energy -2.8 1.2 -2.6 3.7 -3.6 -3.0 2.9 -5.6 -24.8 -26.9 -8.4 -9.5 -7.4
Net Export Sales 18.8 2.4 -1.5 4.6 -2.8 -2.3 3.7 8.8 4.2 5.6 5.7 9.6 4.2
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -15.8 -14.4 -16.3 103.9 -2.9 -12.2 9.9 -4.4 -6.3 1.3 10.6 9.6 -1.2
PSW 10.7 25.6 33.6 1.5 6.8 9.8 -51.7 -41.5 -21.4 16.5 -25.7 -6.5 0.5
Low Loads
PNW 39.3 40.5 7.3 25.4 15.9 10.7 -1.3 -18.8 -5.3 38.7 38.8 56.4 20.9
PSW -35.7 -27.9 -15.2 -35.0 -10.3 -42.7 -34.2 -50.6 -75.0 -61.5 -24.5 -32.4 -30.8
Table F-52
Table 16-B: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Power Sale
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 359 -66 113 -140 -528 -163 136 72 115 75 -97 20 -8
Cool -4 -5 -1 -17 -10 -43 -124 -80 100 -36 15 -10 -18
CT 471 351 346 283 594 366 140 206 44 185 356 492 320
High Water Coal 0 10 -6 -26 1 -66 -249 -56 -54 -48 51 -39 -40
CT 447 380 278 379 574 385 -221 3 0 0 70 481 232
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1 7 5 0 0 1
CT 476 413 427 313 653 620 589 646 147 1009 611 583 541
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 28 -216 -680 110 -600 -280 272 396 -19 6 108 19 -72
Coal 37 -20 89 -79 39 -47 -152 -139 -50 -75 -79 -51 -44
CT 555 375 546 237 340 198 111 150 0 52 149 356 256
High Water Coal 74 37 -61 35 -120 4 -278 -166 0 1 0 -57 -44
CT 596 187 234 243 155 79 0 0 0 0 0 102 133
Low Water Coal 28 -25 72 -177 14 12 13 10 -17 -70 -11 14 -11
CT 666 434 801 247 635 638 395 499 3 322 543 655 486
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 137 245 394 95 -18 -13 99 -470 -1260 -1291 -329 -144 -212
Net Export Sales 862 290 439 140 27 32 144 255 565 534 396 581 356
Low Loads
Economy Energy -94 44 -113 174 -203 -177 152 -281 -1559 -1511 -434 361 -361
Net Export Sales 631 89 -68 219 -158 -132 197 444 266 314 291 364 207
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -37 -27 -41 53 -7 -29 9 -18 -18 5 42 33 -3
PSW 31 57 73 2 7 17 -30 -68 -15 21 -53 -33 1
Low Loads
PNW 55 30 8 15 24 26 -2 -32 -2 24 26 155 27
PSW -119 -76 -35 -49 -8 -53 -26 -39 -3 -8 -27 -198 -53
Table F-53
Table 17: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Power Sale
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11164 11876 13379 16527 18394 18551 19799 20189 22774 21416 17423 13134 17052
Coal 5592 5648 5607 5704 5678 5568 4867 3729 3205 4005 4978 5701 5023
CT 4234 4028 3958 3130 3053 2726 1775 1587 88 909 1846 3703 2586
High Water Coal 5601 5654 5601 5703 5715 5644 4427 3402 2186 1747 4087 5695 4622
CT 4520 3114 2909 2384 2400 2147 627 466 0 0 178 2625 1781
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4573 4083 5329 5749 5750 5426
CT 4621 4495 4743 4226 5046 5048 4794 4576 305 3556 4572 4927 4243
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 12282 12805 14440 16752 17730 17701 17834 18308 20192 19104 16878 12858 16407
Coal 4388 4354 4291 4118 4063 3589 2842 1908 1229 1792 2616 4233 3285
CT 903 699 746 419 590 381 278 352 0 61 277 746 454
High Water Coal 4623 3626 3790 3927 3731 3382 2043 1217 861 972 973 3593 2728
CT 1070 230 200 259 148 90 0 0 0 0 0 138 178
Low Water Coal 4626 4569 4645 4539 4789 4783 4532 3636 2696 3927 4771 4785 4358
CT 1148 851 1197 666 1870 1699 1381 1556 3 375 1392 1716 1154
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1551 1990 2154 2638 2870 3531 3844 3668 3163 3388 3582 2181 2879
Net Export Sales 2276 2035 2199 2683 2915 3576 3889 4393 4988 5213 4307 2906 3447
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3299 3779 4323 4964 5444 5647 5514 4782 4734 4123 4726 3511 4574
Net Export Sales 4024 3824 4368 5009 5489 5692 5559 5507 6559 5948 5451 4236 5142
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 191 163 211 111 237 214 101 392 277 371 447 374 257
PSW 326 280 291 131 110 187 24 85 44 169 145 477 189
Low Loads
PNW 197 107 119 73 178 267 154 140 34 86 95 423 156
PSW 218 199 196 95 70 76 52 41 2 3 78 419 121
Table F-54
Table 17-A: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Power Sale
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 3.4 -0.5 0.8 -0.8 -2.7 -0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.6 0.2 0.0
Coal -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.9 -1.3 3.3 -0.2 0.8 -0.1 -0.1
CT 12.8 10.0 10.0 11.1 26.1 17.5 12.6 17.1 109.5 31.7 27.6 16.2 15.5
High Water Coal 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.0 -1.2 -4.2 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 2.2 -0.7 -0.6
CT 10.9 14.9 11.6 20.7 34.5 27.0 -17.5 14.2 0.0 0.0 76.2 24.3 17.3
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 11.7 10.2 10.0 8.5 14.9 13.9 14.7 16.8 99.3 40.1 15.4 13.5 14.8
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -0.1 -1.9 -4.5 0.9 -3.5 -1.8 1.8 2.4 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 -0.5
Coal 0.8 0.0 2.3 -1.6 2.0 -0.7 -5.1 -7.6 -4.2 -3.9 -2.8 -0.4 -1.9
CT 236.9 193.7 375.2 146.5 173.1 145.8 67.5 89.2 0.0 916.7 132.8 111.9 168.6
High Water Coal 1.6 0.9 -1.3 1.3 -2.4 1.4 -12.1 -11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.2
CT 293.4 597.0 2122.2 859.3 1750.0 8900.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 263.2 456.3
Low Water Coal 0.7 -0.2 1.6 -3.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -1.4 0.0 0.3 -0.1
CT 237.6 138.4 264.9 79.0 53.0 69.4 43.4 58.6 ####### 1193.1 70.6 69.7 86.4
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 11.5 15.4 23.7 5.4 1.1 1.3 4.5 -10.3 -28.4 -26.7 -7.2 -5.3 -5.7
Net Export Sales 63.6 18.0 26.3 7.2 2.6 2.6 5.7 7.4 12.9 12.8 11.6 26.2 12.9
Low Loads
Economy Energy -1.7 3.4 -1.5 5.0 -3.1 -3.0 3.5 -5.1 -24.8 -26.7 -8.0 -7.3 -6.7
Net Export Sales 19.9 4.6 -0.5 5.9 -2.3 -2.3 4.4 9.3 4.2 5.7 6.1 11.9 4.9
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -18.4 -13.3 -15.9 117.6 -2.9 -10.1 11.0 -3.7 -2.8 -3.1 12.9 8.7 -1.2
PSW 12.4 25.6 34.1 0.8 6.8 8.1 -58.6 -48.2 -37.1 33.1 -29.6 -6.5 0.0
Low Loads
PNW 40.7 44.6 9.2 23.7 17.9 9.4 -3.1 -17.6 -10.5 38.7 41.8 53.8 20.9
PSW -34.5 -26.8 -15.2 -32.1 -10.3 -38.7 -31.6 -46.8 -50.0 -76.9 -29.1 -31.5 -29.7
Table F-55
Table 17-B: Federal Marketing Case A Combined With Capacity Ownership 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Power Sale
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 371 -61 111 -141 -516 -149 120 76 120 70 -108 21 -7
Coal -4 -5 -1 -15 -7 -38 -93 -49 103 -7 39 -6 -7
CT 481 365 361 312 631 406 198 232 46 219 399 515 347
High Water Coal 0 10 -6 -18 1 -66 -196 -40 -54 -47 88 -38 -30
CT 443 404 303 409 616 457 -133 58 0 0 77 513 263
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1 6 3 0 0 1
CT 484 416 430 331 654 616 615 658 152 1017 609 586 548
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro -18 -249 -677 148 -647 -327 316 423 -15 13 117 23 -75
Coal 36 2 96 -65 80 -27 -154 -156 -54 -73 -75 -15 -34
CT 635 461 589 249 374 226 112 166 0 55 158 394 285
High Water Coal 72 31 -50 52 -93 46 -281 -159 0 0 0 -17 -33
CT 798 197 191 232 140 89 0 0 0 0 0 100 146
Low Water Coal 31 -9 71 -148 15 11 12 9 -2 -56 2 13 -4
CT 808 494 869 294 648 696 418 575 3 346 576 705 535
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 160 265 413 135 30 46 164 -423 -1254 -1234 -278 -121 -175
Net Export Sales 885 310 458 180 75 91 209 302 571 591 447 604 393
Low Loads
Economy Energy -56 123 -68 236 -177 -177 187 -256 -1562 -1502 -412 -276 -326
Net Export Sales 669 168 -23 281 -132 -132 232 469 263 323 313 449 242
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW -43 -25 -40 60 -7 -24 10 -15 -8 -12 51 30 -3
PSW 36 57 74 1 7 14 -34 -79 -26 42 -61 -33 0
Low Loads
PNW 57 33 10 14 27 23 -5 -30 -4 24 28 148 27
PSW -115 -73 -35 -45 -8 -48 -24 -36 -2 -10 -32 -193 -51
Table F-56
Table 18: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11412 11813 13076 16705 18219 18387 19791 20210 22782 21470 17576 13256 17058
Coal 5585 5637 5598 5664 5640 5494 4795 3568 3139 4074 4783 5679 4971
CT 3679 3477 3238 2239 2306 1993 1359 1214 57 810 1457 3251 2090
High Water Coal 5601 5652 5594 5650 5684 5586 4361 3162 2115 1773 3837 5658 4556
CT 3964 2569 2225 1628 1486 1202 480 256 0 0 41 2169 1335
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5746 5750 5750 5496 4572 4083 5324 5750 5750 5425
CT 4036 3922 4039 3170 4418 4423 4005 3804 214 3072 4021 4315 3620
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13385 12723 14420 15896 17663 17093 17505 17862 20222 19101 16467 12935 16273
Coal 4046 4284 4053 4039 3598 3277 2571 1735 1225 1783 2317 4101 3086
CT 146 264 124 132 167 126 132 173 0 15 116 354 146
High Water Coal 4191 3547 3183 3622 3385 3256 1739 727 857 973 973 3479 2494
CT 157 26 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 16
Low Water Coal 4303 4614 4597 4661 4772 4769 4518 3621 2650 4027 4770 4779 4340
CT 175 386 327 321 1178 956 834 900 0 92 774 1001 579
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1316 1874 2178 2900 2951 3606 3804 3706 3690 3339 3106 1862 2859
Net Export Sales 3141 2529 2108 2830 2881 3536 4459 4806 4790 5164 4931 3687 3737
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3259 3560 4430 4818 5552 5544 5144 4608 5353 4028 3855 2953 4428
Net Export Sales 5084 4215 4360 4748 5482 5474 5799 5708 6453 5853 5680 4778 5306
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 279 292 298 112 258 230 104 310 277 358 366 417 276
PSW 300 208 175 70 47 109 18 57 48 104 157 460 146
Low Loads
PNW 295 116 127 65 160 249 77 119 32 73 96 320 143
PSW 101 102 103 36 32 32 20 19 4 5 52 398 76
Table F-57
Table 18-A: Federal Marketing Case Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 5.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.2 -3.7 -1.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.0
Coal -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -1.0 -0.8 -2.0 -3.3 -5.6 1.2 1.5 -3.2 -0.5 -1.2
CT -2.0 -5.1 -10.0 -20.5 -4.8 -14.1 -13.8 -10.4 35.7 17.4 0.7 2.0 -6.7
High Water Coal 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.5 -2.2 -5.7 -8.1 -5.6 -1.2 -4.1 -1.3 -2.1
CT -2.8 -5.2 -14.6 -17.6 -16.7 -28.9 -36.8 -37.3 0.0 0.0 -59.4 2.7 -12.1
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT 2.4 -3.8 -6.4 -18.6 0.6 -0.2 -4.2 -2.9 39.9 21.0 1.5 -0.6 -2.0
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 8.8 -2.5 -4.6 -4.3 -3.9 -5.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.8 0.8 -1.3
Coal -7.0 -1.6 -3.4 -3.4 -9.7 -9.4 -14.2 -15.9 -4.5 -4.4 -13.9 -3.5 -7.0
CT -45.5 10.9 -21.0 -22.4 -22.7 -18.7 -20.5 7.0 0.0 150.0 -2.5 0.6 -13.6
High Water Coal -7.9 -1.3 -17.1 -6.5 -11.5 -2.4 -25.2 -47.2 -0.5 0.1 0.0 -3.6 -9.7
CT -42.3 -21.2 -77.8 -74.1 100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -92.1 -50.0
Low Water Coal -6.4 0.8 0.5 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -1.8 1.1 0.0 0.1 -0.5
CT -48.5 8.1 -0.3 -13.7 -3.6 -4.7 -13.4 -8.3 0.0 217.2 -5.1 -1.0 -6.5
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -5.4 8.6 25.1 15.9 3.9 3.5 3.4 -9.4 -16.5 -27.8 -19.5 -19.1 -6.4
Net Export Sales 125.8 46.6 21.1 13.1 1.4 1.5 21.2 17.5 8.4 11.7 27.7 60.2 22.3
Low Loads
Economy Energy -2.9 -2.6 0.9 1.9 -1.2 -4.8 -3.4 -8.5 -15.0 -28.4 -25.0 -22.0 -9.6
Net Export Sales 51.5 15.3 -0.7 0.4 -2.5 -6.0 8.9 13.3 2.5 4.1 10.5 26.2 8.3
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 19.2 55.3 18.7 119.6 5.7 -3.4 14.3 -23.8 -2.8 -6.5 -7.6 21.2 6.2
PSW 3.4 -6.7 -19.4 -46.2 -54.4 -37.0 -69.0 -65.2 -31.4 -18.1 -23.8 -9.8 -22.8
Low Loads
PNW 110.7 56.8 16.5 10.2 6.0 2.0 -51.6 -30.0 -15.8 17.7 43.3 16.4 10.9
PSW -69.7 -62.5 -55.4 -74.3 -59.0 -74.2 -73.7 -75.3 0.0 -61.5 -52.7 -35.0 -55.8
Table F-58
Table 18-B: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 619 -124 -192 37 -691 -313 112 97 128 124 45 143 -1
Coal -11 -16 -10 -55 -45 -112 -165 -210 37 62 -156 -28 -59
CT -74 -186 -359 -579 -116 -327 -218 -141 15 120 10 63 -149
High Water Coal 0 8 -13 -71 -30 -124 -262 -280 -125 -21 -162 -75 -96
CT -113 -141 -381 -347 -298 -488 -280 -152 0 0 -60 57 -183
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -4 0 0 0 0 6 -2 1 0 0
CT -101 -157 -274 -725 26 -9 -174 -114 61 533 58 -26 -75
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1085 -331 -697 -708 -714 -935 -13 -23 15 10 -294 100 -209
Coal -306 -68 -142 -144 385 -339 -425 -329 -58 -82 -374 -147 -233
CT -122 26 -33 -38 -49 -29 -34 -13 0 9 -3 2 -23
High Water Coal -360 -48 -657 -253 -439 -80 -585 -649 -4 1 0 -131 -267
CT -115 -7 -7 -20 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -35 -16
Low Water Coal -292 36 23 -26 -2 -3 -2 -6 -48 44 1 7 -22
CT -165 29 -1 -51 -44 -47 -129 -81 0 63 -42 -10 -40
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -75 149 437 397 111 121 124 -385 -727 -1283 -754 -440 -195
Net Export Sales 1750 804 367 327 41 51 779 715 373 542 1071 1385 683
Low Loads
Economy Energy -96 -96 39 90 -69 -280 -183 -430 -943 -1597 -1283 -834 -472
Net Export Sales 1729 559 -31 20 -139 -350 472 670 157 228 542 991 406
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 45 104 47 61 14 -8 13 -97 -8 -25 -30 73 16
PSW 10 -15 -42 -60 -56 -64 -40 -107 -22 -23 -49 -50 -43
Low Loads
PNW 155 42 18 6 9 5 -82 -51 -6 11 29 45 14
PSW -232 -170 -128 -104 -46 -92 -56 -58 0 -8 -58 -214 -96
Table F-59
Table 19: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11348 11838 13125 16710 18249 18416 19766 20200 22778 21462 17569 13227 17057
Coal 5585 5638 5598 5662 5635 5494 4798 3571 3128 4075 4786 5673 4970
CT 3641 3510 3321 2350 2315 2035 1366 1226 55 794 1395 3195 2100
High Water Coal 5601 5651 5597 5641 5675 5583 4351 3173 2121 1769 3789 5651 4550
CT 3932 2589 2340 1610 1464 1209 475 290 0 0 45 2082 1336
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4572 4083 5328 5749 5750 5426
CT 4040 3963 4083 3389 4422 4429 3996 3810 210 3072 3954 4295 3638
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13379 12727 14424 15881 17667 17092 17498 17862 20222 19103 16456 12929 16270
Coal 4056 4275 4040 4028 3596 3275 2575 1730 1225 1783 2320 4103 3084
CT 160 238 114 125 162 119 134 168 0 16 122 373 144
High Water Coal 4206 3555 3184 3631 3387 3251 1739 725 859 973 973 3478 2497
CT 161 32 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 17
Low Water Coal 4314 4585 4573 4635 4773 4768 4520 3623 2648 4024 4774 4779 4335
CT 207 363 304 295 1164 912 848 885 0 97 814 1029 576
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1220 1937 2317 3014 2983 3661 3807 3719 3675 3316 3058 1778 2874
Net Export Sales 3045 2592 2247 2944 2913 3591 4462 4819 4775 5141 4883 3603 3752
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3265 3530 4426 4796 5555 5545 5150 4602 5354 4030 3854 2956 4422
Net Export Sales 5090 4185 4356 4726 5485 5475 5805 5702 6454 5855 5679 4781 5300
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 281 241 258 93 251 210 110 317 279 377 397 455 273
PSW 298 263 229 94 58 126 18 58 46 87 132 423 152
Low Loads
PNW 313 94 109 56 160 240 80 118 32 74 101 376 145
PSW 69 123 135 55 41 50 22 23 4 4 43 336 76
Table F-60
Table 19-A: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 5.1 -0.8 -1.1 0.3 -3.5 -1.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.0
Coal -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -1.0 -0.9 -2.0 -3.3 -5.5 0.8 1.6 -3.1 -0.6 -1.2
CT -3.0 -4.2 -7.7 -16.6 -4.4 -12.3 -13.4 -9.5 31.0 15.1 -3.6 0.2 -6.2
High Water Coal 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -1.4 -0.7 -2.2 -5.9 -7.8 -5.3 -1.4 -5.3 -1.4 -2.2
CT -3.6 -4.5 -10.2 -18.5 -17.9 -28.5 -37.5 -28.9 0.0 0.0 -55.4 -1.4 -12.0
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -2.3 -2.8 -5.3 -13.0 0.7 -0.1 -4.4 -2.8 37.3 21.0 -0.2 -1.1 -1.5
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 8.8 -2.5 -4.6 -4.4 -3.9 -5.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.8 0.7 -1.3
Coal -6.8 -1.8 -3.7 -3.7 -9.7 -9.4 -14.1 -16.2 -4.5 -4.4 -13.8 -3.4 -7.1
CT -40.3 0.0 -27.4 -26.5 -25.0 -23.2 -19.3 -9.7 0.0 166.7 2.5 6.0 -14.8
High Water Coal -7.6 -1.1 -17.1 -6.3 -11.4 -2.5 -25.2 -47.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -3.7 -9.6
CT -40.8 -3.0 -88.9 -66.7 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -76.3 -46.9
Low Water Coal -6.1 0.2 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -1.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 -0.6
CT -39.1 1.7 -7.3 -20.7 -4.7 -9.1 -11.9 -9.8 0.0 234.5 -0.2 1.8 -6.9
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -12.3 12.3 33.1 20.4 5.0 5.1 3.5 -9.1 -16.8 -28.3 -20.8 -22.8 -5.9
Net Export Sales 118.9 50.3 29.1 17.6 2.6 3.0 21.3 17.8 8.1 11.2 26.5 56.5 22.8
Low Loads
Economy Energy -2.7 -3.4 0.8 1.4 -1.2 -4.8 -3.3 -8.7 -15.0 -28.4 -25.0 -21.9 -9.8
Net Export Sales 51.7 14.5 -0.8 0.0 -2.4 -6.0 9.0 13.2 2.5 4.1 10.5 26.2 8.2
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 20.1 28.2 2.8 82.4 2.9 -11.8 20.9 -22.1 -2.1 -1.6 0.3 32.3 5.0
PSW 2.8 17.9 5.5 -27.7 -43.7 -27.2 -69.0 -64.6 -34.3 -31.5 -35.9 -17.1 -19.6
Low Loads
PNW 123.6 27.0 0.0 -5.1 6.0 -1.6 -49.7 -30.6 -15.8 19.4 50.7 36.7 12.4
PSW -79.3 -54.8 -41.6 -60.7 -47.4 -59.7 -71.1 -70.1 0.0 -69.2 -60.9 -45.1 -55.8
Table F-61
Table 19-B: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Capacity Ownership - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 555 -99 -143 42 -661 -284 87 87 124 116 38 114 -2
Coal -11 -15 -10 -57 -50 -112 -162 -207 26 63 -153 -34 -60
CT -112 -153 -276 -468 -107 -285 -211 -129 13 104 -52 7 -139
High Water Coal 0 7 -10 -80 -39 -127 -272 -269 -119 -25 -210 -82 -102
CT -145 -121 -266 -365 -320 -481 -285 -118 0 0 -56 -30 -182
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 1
CT -97 -116 -230 -506 30 -3 -183 -108 57 533 -9 -46 -57
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1079 -327 -693 -723 -710 -936 -20 -23 15 12 -305 94 -212
Coal -296 -77 -155 -155 -387 -341 -421 -334 -58 -82 -371 -145 -235
CT -108 0 -43 -45 -54 -36 -32 -18 0 10 3 21 -25
High Water Coal -345 -40 -656 -244 -437 -85 -585 -651 -2 1 0 -132 -264
CT -111 -1 -8 -18 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -29 -15
Low Water Coal -281 7 -1 -52 -1 -4 0 -4 -50 41 5 7 -27
CT -133 6 -24 -77 -58 -91 -115 -96 0 68 -2 18 -43
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -171 212 576 511 143 176 127 -372 -742 -1306 -802 -524 -180
Net Export Sales 1654 867 506 441 73 106 782 728 358 519 1023 1301 698
Low Loads
Economy Energy -90 -126 35 68 -66 -279 -177 -436 -942 -1595 -1284 -831 -478
Net Export Sales 1735 529 -35 -2 -136 -349 478 664 158 230 541 994 400
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 47 53 7 42 7 -28 19 -90 -6 -6 1 111 13
PSW 8 40 12 -36 -45 -47 -40 -106 -24 -40 -74 -87 -37
Low Loads
PNW 173 20 0 -3 9 -4 -79 -52 -6 12 34 101 16
PSW -264 -149 -96 -85 -37 -74 -54 -54 0 -9 -67 -276 -96
Table F-62
Table 20: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Assured Delivery - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11412 11787 13054 16695 18226 18387 19790 20214 22780 21474 17581 13251 17054
Coal 5585 5636 5599 5659 5633 5495 4772 3556 3111 4064 4779 5678 4964
CT 3675 3484 3232 2204 2284 1985 1336 1206 52 804 1445 3250 2080
High Water Coal 5601 5650 5594 5652 5675 5590 4312 3161 2118 1772 3825 5660 4551
CT 3961 2566 2207 1614 1449 1214 481 263 0 0 42 2177 1331
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5745 5750 5750 5496 4572 4080 5323 5750 5750 5425
CT 4030 3936 4038 3107 4418 4423 3963 3814 204 3071 4010 4317 3611
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13389 12719 14406 15898 17652 17110 17481 17867 20221 19095 16466 12935 16270
Coal 4039 4253 4037 4018 3595 3270 2579 1727 1223 1782 2315 4099 3078
CT 145 203 112 115 146 102 116 154 0 15 116 353 131
High Water Coal 4178 3539 3190 3628 3389 3266 1756 729 860 973 973 3469 2496
CT 156 28 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 16
Low Water Coal 4294 4554 4555 4584 4775 4770 4520 3625 2640 4034 4773 4779 4325
CT 176 330 287 261 1048 781 693 790 0 97 773 998 519
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1331 1847 2160 2879 2932 3585 3780 3700 3676 3342 3117 1886 2853
Net Export Sales 3156 2502 2090 2809 2862 3515 4435 4800 4776 5167 4942 3711 3731
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3268 3518 4420 4821 5533 5559 5128 4599 5353 4022 3860 2963 4421
Net Export Sales 5093 4173 4350 4751 5463 5489 5783 5699 6453 5847 5685 4788 5299
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 287 181 203 106 244 198 100 291 273 367 376 430 254
PSW 314 312 281 109 82 143 29 82 69 111 163 480 182
Low Loads
PNW 305 68 79 44 153 226 76 112 33 74 97 325 132
PSW 103 198 182 92 50 71 34 36 5 5 52 405 103
Table F-63
Table 20-A: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Assured Delivery - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 5.7 -1.3 -1.6 0.2 -3.6 -1.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.0
Coal -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -1.0 -0.9 -2.0 -3.8 -5.9 0.3 1.3 -3.2 -0.5 -1.3
CT -2.1 -4.9 -10.1 -21.8 -5.7 -14.4 -15.3 -11.0 23.8 16.5 -0.1 1.9 -7.1
High Water Coal 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.7 -2.1 -6.7 -8.2 -5.4 -1.2 -4.4 -1.3 -2.2
CT -2.8 -5.3 -15.3 -18.3 -18.8 -28.2 -36.7 -35.5 0.0 0.0 -58.4 3.1 -12.3
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -2.6 -3.5 -6.4 -20.2 0.6 -0.2 -5.2 -2.7 33.3 21.0 1.2 -0.6 -2.3
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 8.9 -2.6 -4.7 -4.3 -3.9 -5.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -1.8 0.8 -1.3
Coal -7.2 -2.3 -3.8 -3.9 -9.7 -9.6 -13.9 -16.3 -4.7 -4.5 -14.0 -3.5 -7.3
CT -45.9 -14.7 -28.7 -32.4 -32.4 -34.2 -30.1 -17.2 0.0 150.0 -2.5 0.3 -22.5
High Water Coal -8.2 -1.6 -16.9 -6.4 -11.4 -2.1 -24.4 -47.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -3.9 -9.6
CT -42.6 -15.2 -66.7 -81.5 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -92.1 -50.0
Low Water Coal -6.6 -0.5 -0.4 -2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -2.1 1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.8
CT -48.2 -7.6 -12.5 -29.8 -14.2 -22.1 -28.0 -19.5 0.0 234.5 -5.3 -1.3 -16.2
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -4.3 7.1 24.1 15.0 3.2 2.9 2.7 -9.6 -16.8 -27.7 -19.2 -18.1 -6.6
Net Export Sales 126.9 45.0 20.0 12.2 0.8 0.9 20.5 17.3 8.1 11.8 28.0 61.2 22.2
Low Loads
Economy Energy -2.6 -3.8 0.7 2.0 -1.6 -4.6 -3.7 -8.7 -15.0 -28.5 -24.9 -21.8 -9.8
Net Export Sales 51.8 14.1 -0.9 0.5 -2.8 -5.8 8.6 13.1 2.5 3.9 10.6 26.4 8.1
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 22.6 -3.7 -19.1 107.8 0.0 -16.8 9.9 -28.5 -4.2 -4.2 -5.1 25.0 -2.3
PSW 8.3 39.9 29.5 -16.2 -20.4 -17.3 -50.0 -50.0 -1.4 -12.6 -20.9 -5.9 -3.7
Low Loads
PNW 117.9 -8.1 -27.5 -25.4 1.3 -7.4 -52.2 -34.1 -13.2 19.4 44.8 18.2 2.3
PSW -69.1 -27.2 -21.2 -34.3 -35.9 -42.7 -55.3 -53.2 25.0 -61.5 -52.7 -33.8 -40.1
Table F-64
Table 20-B: Federal Marketing Case: B Combined With Assured Delivery - 100% PUB - Seasonal Exchange
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 619 -150 -214 27 -684 -313 111 101 126 128 50 138 -5
Coal -11 -17 -9 -60 -52 -111 -188 -222 9 52 -160 -29 -66
CT -78 -179 -365 -614 -138 -335 -241 -149 10 114 -2 62 -159
High Water Coal 0 6 -13 -69 -39 -120 -311 -281 -122 -22 -174 -73 -101
CT -116 -144 -399 -361 -335 -476 -279 -145 0 0 -59 65 -187
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -5 0 0 0 0 3 -3 1 0 0
CT -107 -143 -275 -788 26 -9 -216 -104 51 532 47 -24 -84
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1089 -335 -711 -706 -725 -918 -37 -18 14 4 -295 100 -212
Coal -313 -99 -158 -165 -388 -346 -417 -337 -60 -83 -376 -149 -241
CT -123 -35 -45 -55 -70 -53 -50 -32 0 9 -3 1 -38
High Water Coal -373 -56 -650 -247 -435 -70 -568 -647 -1 1 0 -141 -265
CT -116 -5 -6 -22 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -35 -16
Low Water Coal -301 -24 -19 -103 1 -2 0 -2 -58 51 4 7 -37
CT -164 -27 -41 -111 -174 -222 -270 -191 0 68 -43 -13 -100
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -60 122 419 376 92 100 100 -391 -741 -1280 -743 -416 -201
Net Export Sales 1765 777 349 306 22 30 755 709 359 545 1082 1409 677
Low Loads
Economy Energy -87 -138 29 93 -88 -265 -199 -439 -943 -1603 -1278 -824 -479
Net Export Sales 1738 517 -41 23 -158 -335 456 661 157 222 547 1001 399
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 53 -7 -48 55 0 -40 9 -116 -12 -16 -20 86 -6
PSW 24 89 64 -21 -21 -30 -29 -82 -1 -16 -43 -30 -7
Low Loads
PNW 165 -6 -30 -15 2 -18 -83 -58 -5 12 30 50 3
PSW -230 -74 -49 -48 -28 -53 -42 -41 1 -8 -58 -207 -69
Table F-65
Table 21: Federal Marketing Case Combined With Assured Delivery - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Resource Operation - 20 Year Averages - Average MW
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 11348 11814 13101 16696 18250 18415 19766 20211 22779 21464 17574 13226 17054
Coal 5585 5636 5597 5655 5629 5489 4773 3560 3112 4068 4778 5673 4963
CT 3635 3498 3285 2301 2294 2016 1333 1209 52 787 1388 3196 2083
High Water Coal 5601 5650 5598 5631 5664 5578 4319 3161 2113 1766 3774 5653 4542
CT 3928 2569 2306 1585 1433 1201 476 267 0 0 35 2091 1324
Low Water Coal 5601 5666 5615 5748 5750 5750 5496 4572 4081 5327 5749 5750 5425
CT 4035 3948 4037 3300 4424 4430 3962 3811 206 3066 3955 4299 3623
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 13376 12723 14405 15895 17659 17111 17484 17864 20222 19099 16457 12929 16269
Coal 4050 4253 4025 4009 3589 3253 2576 1726 1224 1784 2320 4102 3076
CT 160 201 109 114 150 105 116 154 0 16 122 372 135
High Water Coal 4204 3548 3185 3629 3381 3214 1759 728 859 973 973 3467 2493
CT 160 25 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 16
Low Water Coal 4302 4549 4556 4585 4773 4771 4520 3625 2642 4039 4772 4779 4326
CT 208 325 286 263 1069 801 701 789 0 95 816 1030 532
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy 1235 1881 2251 2953 2952 3618 3763 3701 3676 3320 3069 804 2851
Net Export Sales 3060 2536 2181 2883 2882 3548 4418 4801 4776 5145 4894 3629 3729
Low Loads
Economy Energy 3266 3509 4411 4814 5540 5557 5130 4596 5351 4027 3858 2963 4422
Net Export Sales 5091 4164 4341 4744 5470 5487 5785 5696 6451 5852 5683 4788 5300
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 290 173 196 94 234 181 104 291 275 386 411 463 259
PSW 309 311 287 111 93 155 28 83 68 92 136 444 176
Low Loads
PNW 322 64 72 40 148 222 76 112 31 74 102 379 137
PSW 70 192 196 101 55 88 34 36 5 4 43 343 97
Table F-66
Table 21-A: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Assured Delivery - 52%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Percentage Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 5.1 -1.0 -1.3 0.2 -3.5 -1.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.0
Coal -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -1.1 -1.0 -2.1 -3.8 -5.8 0.3 1.4 -3.3 -0.6 -1 3
CT -3.1 -4.5 -8.7 -18.3 -5.3 -13.1 -15.5 -10.8 23.8 14.1 -4.1 0.3 -7.0
High Water Coal 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -1.6 -0.9 -2.3 -6.6 -8.2 -5.7 -1.6 -5.6 -1.4 -2.4
CT -3.7 -5.2 -11.5 -19.7 -19.7 -28.9 -37.4 -34.6 0.0 0.0 -65.3 -1.0 -12.8
Low Water Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CT -2.5 -3.2 -6.4 -15.3 0.7 0.0 -5.2 -2.7 34.6 20.8 -0.2 -1.0 -1.9
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 8.7 -2.5 -4.7 -4.3 -3.9 -5.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -1.8 0.7 -1.3
Coal -6.9 -2.3 -4.1 -4.2 -9.9 -10.0 -14.0 -16.4 -4.6 -4.3 -13.8 -3.4 -7.3
CT -40.3 -15.5 -30.6 -32.9 -30.6 -32.3 -30.1 -17.2 0.0 166.7 2.5 5.7 -20.1
High Water Coal -7.6 -1.3 -17.1 -6.3 -11.6 -3.7 -24.3 -47.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -4.0 -9.7
CT -41.2 -24.2 -66.7 -77.8 -100.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -86.8 -50.0
Low Water Coal -6.4 -0.6 -0.4 -2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -2.1 1.4 0.1 0.1 -0.8
CT -38.8 -9.0 -12.8 -29.3 -12.5 -20.1 -27.2 -19.6 0.0 227.6 0.0 1.9 -14.1
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -11.2 9.0 29.3 18.0 3.9 3.8 2.3 -9.5 -16.8 -28.2 -20.5 -21.6 -6.6
Net Export Sales 120.0 47.0 25.3 15.2 1.5 1.8 20.1 17.4 8.1 11.3 26.8 57.6 22.1
Low Loads
Economy Energy -2.7 -4.0 0.5 1.8 -1.4 -4.6 -3.7 -8.8 -15.0 -28.4 -24.9 -21.8 -9.8
Net Export Sales 51.7 13.9 -1.1 0.3 -2.7 -5.8 8.6 13.1 2.5 4.0 10.6 26.4 8.2
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 23.9 -8.0 -21.9 84.3 -4.1 -23.9 14.3 -28.5 -3.5 0.8 3.8 34.6 -0.4
PSW 6.6 39.5 32.3 -14.6 -9.7 -10.4 -51.7 -49.4 -2.9 -27.6 -34.0 -12.9 -6.9
Low Loads
PNW 130.0 -13.5 -33.9 -32.2 -2.0 -9.0 -52.2 -34.1 -18.4 19.4 52.2 37.8 6.2
PSW -79.0 -29.4 -15.2 -27.9 -29.5 -29.0 -55.3 -53.2 25.0 -69.2 -60.9 -44.0 -43.6
Table F-67
Table 21-B: Federal Marketing Case B Combined With Assured Delivery - 520%/48% PUB/IOU - Seasonal Exchange
Average MW Change From No Action Case
PNW Generation SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG AVE
High Loads
Ave Water Hydro 555 -123 -167 28 -660 -285 87 98 125 118 43 113 -5
Coal -11 -17 -11 -64 -56 -117 -187 -218 10 56 -161 -34 -67
CT -118 -165 -312 -517 -128 -304 -244 -146 10 97 -59 8 -156
High Water Coal 0 6 -9 -90 -50 -132 -304 -281 -127 -28 -225 -80 -110
CT -149 -141 -300 -390 -351 -489 -284 -141 0 0 -66 -21 -194
Low Water Coal 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0
CT -102 -131 -276 -595 32 -2 -217 -107 53 527 -8 -42 -72
Low Loads
Ave Water Hydro 1076 -331 -712 -709 -718 -917 -34 -21 15 8 -304 94 -213
Coal -302 -99 -170 -174 -394 -363 -420 -338 -59 -81 -371 -146 -243
CT -108 -37 -48 -56 -66 -50 -50 -32 0 10 3 20 -34
High Water Coal -347 -47 -655 -246 -443 -122 -565 -648 -2 1 0 -143 -268
CT -112 -8 -6 -21 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -33 -16
Low Water Coal -293 -29 -18 -102 -1 -1 0 -2 -56 56 3 7 -36
CT -132 -32 -42 -109 -153 -202 -262 -192 0 66 0 19 -87
Sales to PSW
High Loads
Economy Energy -156 156 510 450 112 133 83 -390 -741 -1302 -791 -498 -203
Net Export Sales 1669 811 440 380 42 63 738 710 359 523 1034 1327 675
Low Loads
Economy Energy -89 -147 20 86 -81 -267 -197 -442 -945 -1598 -1280 -824 -478
Net Export Sales 1736 508 -50 16 -151 -337 458 658 155 227 545 1001 400
BCH Economy Sales South
High Loads
PNW 56 -15 -55 43 -10 -57 13 -116 -10 3 15 119 -1
PSW 19 88 70 -19 -10 -18 -30 -81 -2 -35 -70 -66 -13
Low Loads
PNW 182 -10 -37 -19 -3 -22 -83 -58 -7 12 35 104 8
PSW -263 -80 -35 -39 -23 -36 -42 -41 1 -9 -67 -269 -75
Appendix F.
Part 5. PNW Thermal Resource Operation Data Plant-By-Plant
F117
Table F-68 Coal Generation* All Water Years 20 Year Annual Average MW
High Loads VALMY 1 VALMY 2 COLSTP COLSTP CORETTE BOARD- CENTR BRIDGER GEN
Alternative 1&2 3&4 MAN 1&2 1-4 COAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 110 111 360 1027 57 334 1006 1326 694
FMA -1 -1 0 0 0 -4 -10 2 -4
CO1SE 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 4
CO5SE 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 4
AD1SE 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 2
AD5SE 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 2
FMACO1SE -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 -7 0 0
FMACO5SE -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 -7 0 0
FMAAD1SE -1 -1 0 0 0 -4 -11 0 -2
FMAAD5SE -1 -1 0 0 0 -4 -11 0 -2
FMB -2 -2 0 0 -1 -7 -28 -9 -9
CO1PS -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2
CO5PS -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 7
FMBCO1PS -3 -3 0 0 -1 -11 -31 -12 -12
FMBCO5PS -3 -3 0 0 -1 -10 -33 -12 -3
FMACO1PS -1 -2 0 0 0 -5 -6 1 -7
FMACO5PS -1 -2 0 0 0 -4 -6 1 4
FMBCO1SE -2 -3 0 0 -1 -8 -29 -12 -7
FMBCO5SE -2 -3 0 0 -1 -7 -29 -12 -7
FMBAD1SE -2 -3 0 0 -1 -8 -33 -12 -9
FMBAD5SE -2 -3 0 0 -1 -8 -34 -12 -10
Low Loads VALMY 1 VALMY 2 COLSTP COLSTP CORETTE BOARD- CENTR BRIDGER GEN
Alternative 1&2 3&4 MAN 1&2 1-4 COAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 61 62 360 948 48 207 539 1088 0
FMA 0 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -9 0 0
CO1SE -2 -2 0 -2 0 -6 -22 -15 0
CO5SE -2 -2 0 -2 0 -7 -24 -14 0
AD1SE -2 -2 0 -2 0 -7 -28 -14 0
AD5SE -2 -3 0 -2 0 -8 -28 -15 0
FMACO1SE -3 -3 0 -3 -1 -9 -34 -17 0
FMACO5SE -3 -3 0 -3 -1 -10 -36 -17 0
FMAAD1SE -3 -3 0 -3 0 -11 -39 -16 0
FMAAD5SE -3 -3 0 -3 0 -12 -39 -17 0
FMB -7 -7 0 -14 -2 -21 -71 -52 0
CO1PS 1 1 0 -10 -1 -4 1 -19 0
CO5PS 1 1 0 -10 -1 -3 9 -19 0
FMBCO1PS -4 -4 0 -31 -4 -28 -71 -77 0
FMBCO5PS -4 -4 0 -32 -4 -26 -62 -77 0
FMACO1PS 1 1 0 -12 -1 -6 -4 -22 0
FMACO5PS 1 1 0 -13 -1 -5 5 -23 0
FMBCO1SE -8 -9 0 -23 -3 -25 -87 -77 0
FMBCO5SE -8 -8 0 -23 -3 -26 -89 -77 0
FMBAD1SE -8 -8 0 -23 -3 -27 -94 -77 0
FMBAD5SE -8 -9 0 -23 -3 -28 -93 -78 0
* Generation of alternatives is compared to No Action.
F118
Table F-69 Coal Generation* High Water Years 20 Year Annual Average MW
High Loads VALMY 1 VALMY 2 COLSTP COLSTP CORETTE BOARD- CENTR BRIDGER GEN
Alternative 1&2 3&4 MAN 1&2 1-4 COAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 97 97 360 1027 56 305 864 1236 605
FMA -2 -1 0 0 0 -7 -22 2 -3
CO1SE -1 0 0 0 0 2 -4 -3 8
CO5SE -1 0 0 0 0 1 -5 -2 7
AD1SE -1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -4 7
AD5SE -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 6
FMACO1SE -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -22 -2 2
FMACO5SE -1 -1 0 0 0 -4 -20 -1 2
FMAAD1SE -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -19 -2 2
FMAAD5SE -1 -1 0 0 0 -5 -23 -2 0
FMB -3 -3 0 0 0 -12 -52 -11 -12
CO1PS -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -5
CO5PS -1 0 0 0 0 0 -7 -3 8
FMBCO1PS -4 -3 0 0 0 -19 -71 -22 -17
FMBCO5PS -4 -3 0 0 0 -18 -74 -22 -5
FMACO1PS -1 -1 0 0 0 -5 -16 -4 -13
FMACO5PS -1 -1 0 0 0 -4 -20 -4 0
FMBCO1SE -3 -3 0 0 0 -11 -55 -17 -7
FMBCO5SE -3 -3 0 0 0 -12 -58 -18 -8
FMBAD1SE -3 -3 0 0 0 -12 -57 -17 -8
FMBAD5SE -4 -3 0 0 0 -12 -61 -19 -11
Low Loads VALMY 1 VALMY 2 COLSTP COLSTP CORETTE BOARD- CENTR BRIDGER GEN
Alternative 1&2 3&4 MAN 1&2 1-4 COAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 45 46 360 897 44 128 283 956 0
FMA -1 0 0 1 0 -5 -15 3 0
CO1SE -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -9 -35 -14 0
CO5SE -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -10 -35 -12 0
AD1SE -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -8 -35 -13 0
AD5SE -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -11 -35 -11 0
FMACO1SE -5 -4 0 -1 -1 -15 -47 -14 0
FMACO5SE -5 -4 0 -1 -1 -15 -44 -14 0
FMAAD1SE -4 -4 0 -1 -1 -15 -45 -12 0
FMAAD5SE -5 -4 0 -1 -1 -17 -44 -15 0
FMB -10 -11 0 -19 -3 -25 -91 -49 0
CO1PS 2 2 0 -9 -2 -10 -12 -19 0
CO5PS 3 3 0 -10 -2 -7 -10 -17 0
FMBCO1PS -3 -3 0 -33 -5 -35 -95 -83 0
FMBCO5PS -3 -3 0 -33 -5 -35 -95 -82 0
FMACO1PS 1 2 0 -8 -1 -8 -5 -26 0
FMACO5PS 2 2 0 -8 -2 -6 0 -24 0
FMBCO1SE -12 -12 0 -22 -4 -32 -111 -76 0
FMBCO5SE -12 -12 0 -22 -4 -31 -109 -76 0
FMBAD1SE -11 -11 0 -21 -4 -31 -114 -75 0
FMBAD5SE -12 -12 0 -21 -4 -33 -112 -76 0
* Generation of alternatives is compared to No Action.
F119
Table F-7O Coal Generation* Low Water Years 20 Year Annual Average MW
High Loads VALMY 1 VALMY 2 COLSTP COLSTP CORETTE BOARD- CENTR BRIDGER GEN
Alternative 1&2 3&4 MAN 1&2 1-4 COAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 122 121 360 1027 57 372 1187 1366 807
FMA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CO1SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CO5SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AD1SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AD5SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMACO1SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMACO5SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMAAD1SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMAAD5SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CO1PS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CO5PS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMBCO1PS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMBCO5PS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMACO1PS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMACO5PS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMBCO1SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMBCO5SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMBAD1SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FMBAD5SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Low Loads VALMY 1 VALMY 2 COLSTP COLSTP CORETTE BOARD- CENTR BRIDGER GEN
Alternative 1&2 3&4 MAN 1&2 1-4 COAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 91 91 360 1027 57 344 1024 1363 0
FMA 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -12 1 0
CO1SE 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0
CO5SE 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 1 0
AD1SE 0 0 0 0 0 1 -6 1 0
AD5SE 0 0 0 0 0 1 -6 1 0
FMACO1SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6 1 0
FMACO5SE 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -13 1 0
FMAAD1SE 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -19 1 0
FMAAD5SE 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -18 1 0
FMB 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -13 1 0
CO1PS 1 1 0 0 0 -4 3 0 0
CO5PS 1 1 0 0 0 -3 8 0 0
FMBCO1PS 1 1 0 0 0 -7 -10 0 0
FMBCO5PS 1 1 0 0 0 -5 -2 1 0
FMACO1PS 1 1 0 0 0 -6 -5 0 0
FMACO5PS 1 1 0 0 0 -5 0 0 0
FMBCO1SE -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -18 0 0
FMBCO5SE -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -24 1 0
FMBAD1SE -1 -1 0 0 0 -4 -31 1 0
FMBAD5SE -1 -1 0 0 0 -5 -30 1 0
* Generation of alternatives is compared to No Action
F120
Table F-71 Combustion Turbine Generation* All Water Years 20 Year Annual Average MW
High Loads BeaVER WHITE- WHITE- BETHEL FREDRICK FREDONIA NORTH GEN
Alternative HORN 1 HORN 2&3 1&2 1&2 eaST CTCC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 311 6 32 38 34 56 27 1460
FMA -9 -1 -5 -2 -5 -9 -1 -60
CO1SE -4 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 -12
CO5SE -3 -1 -1 1 -1 0 1 -8
AD1SE -4 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 -16
AD5SE -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 -10
FMACO1SE -13 -2 -7 -3 -7 -11 -2 -65
FMACO5SE -12 -2 -5 -1 -5 -9 -1 -65
FMAAD1SE -14 -2 -7 -4 -7 -13 -2 -73
FMAAD5SE -13 -3 -7 -3 -7 -13 -2 -72
FMB -16 -2 -8 -4 -8 -14 -2 -68
CO1PS -52 -2 -3 -1 -3 -6 0 504
CO5PS -49 -2 -3 -1 -3 -6 0 520
FMBCO1PS -66 -3 -9 -5 -9 -16 -3 412
FMBCO5PS -64 -3 -9 -5 -9 -16 -3 431
FMACO1PS -59 -2 -8 -3 -7 -14 -2 424
FMACO5PS -56 -2 -8 -3 -8 -14 -2 446
FMBCO1SE -23 -2 -8 -5 -8 -15 -3 -73
FMBCO5SE -22 -3 -7 -3 -7 -13 -2 -72
FMBAD1SE -23 -2 -9 -6 -9 -16 -3 -80
FMBAD5SE -24 -3 -9 -5 -9 -15 -3 -77
Low Loads BeaVER WHITE- WHITE- BETHEL FREDRICK FREDONIA NORTH GEN
Alternative HORN 1 HORN 2&3 1&2 1&2 eaST CTCC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 105 1 6 7 7 12 5 20
FMA -7 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3
CO1SE 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 2
CO5SE 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 1
AD1SE -3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0
AD5SE -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0
FMACO1SE -3 -1 0 1 -1 -1 0 0
FMACO5SE -4 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1
FMAAD1SE -10 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2
FMAAD5SE -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2
FMB -17 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3
CO1PS 5 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 280
CO5PS 14 0 0 1 0 -1 1 296
FMBCO1PS -16 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 237
FMBCO5PS -10 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 253
FMACO1PS -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 267
FMACO5PS 6 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 284
FMBCO1SE -15 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 -1
FMBCO5SE -16 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -3
FMBAD1SE -21 -1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -1 -4
FMBAD5SE -20 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 -3
* Generation of alternatives is compared to No Action
F121
Table F-72 Combustion Turbine Generation* High Water Years 20 Year Annual Average MW
High Loads BeaVER WHITE- WHITE- BETHEL FREDRICK FREDONIA NORTH GEN
Alternative HORN 1 HORN 2&3 1&2 1&2 eaST CTCC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 254 1 12 17 13 18 14 1024
FMA -18 0 -4 -2 -4 -6 -1 -84
CO1SE -4 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
CO5SE -4 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -4
AD1SE -3 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 -5
AD5SE -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -6
FMACO1SE -25 -1 -6 -4 -6 -8 -3 -78
FMACO5SE -22 -1 -4 -3 -5 -5 -2 -89
FMAAD1SE -26 0 -6 -4 -6 -8 -3 -85
FMAAD5SE -26 -1 -5 -3 -5 -6 -2 -99
FMB -21 -1 -5 -4 -5 -6 -3 -89
CO1PS -48 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 420
CO5PS -41 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 438
FMBCO1PS -70 -1 -6 -5 -7 -8 -4 310
FMBCO5PS -65 -1 -6 -4 -6 -7 -4 332
FMACO1PS -58 0 -5 -4 -5 -7 -3 330
FMACO5PS -54 0 -5 -3 -5 -7 -2 356
FMBCO1SE -41 -1 -6 -6 -6 -8 -5 -92
FMBCO5SE -39 -1 -6 -4 -6 -7 -4 -97
FMBAD1SE -39 -1 -6 -6 -6 -9 -5 -98
FMBAD5SE -39 -1 -6 -5 -6 -8 -5 -105
High Loads BeaVER WHITE- WHITE- BETHEL FREDRICK FREDONIA NORTH GEN
Alternative HORN 1 HORN 2&3 1&2 1&2 eaST CTCC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 26 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
FMA -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
CO1SE -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
CO5SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
AD1SE -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
AD5SE -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
FMACO1SE -4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
FMACO5SE -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
FMAAD1SE -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
FMAAD5SE -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
FMB -10 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2
CO1PS -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 128
CO5PS 5 0 0 0 0 -1 1 136
FMBCO1PS -12 0 0 0 0 -1 0 99
FMBCO5PS -8 0 0 0 0 -1 0 109
FMACO1PS -4 0 0 0 0 -1 0 137
FMACO5PS 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 144
FMBCO1SE -15 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
FMBCO5SE -14 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
FMBAD1SE -15 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
FMBAD5SE -15 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2
* Generation of alternatives is compared to No Action
F122
Table F-73 Combustion Turbine Generation* Low Water Years 20 Year Annual Average MW
High Loads BeaVER WHITE- WHITE- BETHEL FREDRICK FREDONIA NORTH GEN
Alternative HORN 1 HORN 2&3 1&2 1&2 eaST CTCC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 407 21 79 75 82 149 53 2330
FMA 0 -3 -8 0 -8 -14 -1 5
CO1SE 0 -2 -3 1 -3 -3 0 -4
CO5SE 0 -2 1 3 0 -2 1 -2
AD1SE 0 -2 -3 1 -3 -6 0 -2
AD5SE 0 -2 -2 2 -2 -5 0 0
FMACO1SE 0 -6 -9 -1 -10 -16 -1 -26
FMACO5SE 0 -5 -7 -2 -7 -11 1 -10
FMAAD1SE 0 -6 -10 -1 -10 -19 -1 -26
FMAAD5SE 0 -6 -9 0 -10 -19 -1 -11
FMB 0 -6 -11 0 -10 -23 -1 -3
CO1PS -62 -4 -5 1 -5 -12 0 651
CO5PS -62 -4 -6 1 -5 -12 -1 655
FMBCO1PS -62 -7 -12 -1 -12 -28 -1 640
FMBCO5PS -62 -7 -13 -1 -13 -28 -1 649
FMACO1PS -62 -6 -10 0 -10 -20 -1 646
FMACO5PS -62 -6 -11 -1 -11 -22 -1 656
FMBCO1SE 0 -6 -11 -2 -11 -23 -1 -22
FMBCO5SE 0 -5 -8 1 -8 -21 0 -15
FMBAD1SE 0 -6 -12 -2 -12 -26 -1 -24
FMBAD5SE 0 -6 -11 -1 -11 -27 -1 -17
Low Loads BeaVER WHITE- WHITE- BETHEL FREDRICK FREDONIA NORTH GEN
Alternative HORN 1 HORN 2&3 1&2 1&2 eaST CTCC
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NA 317 9 40 42 41 71 29 66
FMA -15 -1 -6 -4 -5 -9 -3 -2
CO1SE 8 0 1 3 2 6 2 4
CO5SE 4 0 1 2 2 6 1 1
AD1SE -8 -3 -5 -3 -4 -9 -2 -1
AD5SE -5 -2 -3 -2 -3 -6 -2 -1
FMACO1SE -7 -3 -4 0 -3 -5 0 1
FMACO5SE -12 -3 -4 -2 -3 -5 -1 -1
FMAAD1SE -27 -5 -12 -7 -11 -22 -5 -2
FMAAD5SE -24 -5 -10 -6 -9 -18 -4 -2
FMB -15 -2 -9 -4 -8 -16 -3 -2
CO1PS 6 -2 -7 -3 -6 -11 -2 568
CO5PS 18 -1 -6 -1 -4 -9 0 588
FMBCO1PS -21 -4 -13 -8 -13 -24 -5 547
FMBCO5PS -10 -4 -12 -6 -11 -21 -4 570
FMACO1PS -11 -3 -12 -7 -12 -20 -5 556
FMACO5PS 4 -2 -10 -5 -10 -16 -3 577
FMBCO1SE -12 -3 -7 -1 -6 -12 -1 1
FMBCO5SE -13 -4 -6 -2 -5 -10 -1 -1
FMBAD1SE -26 -5 -15 -6 -14 -28 -4 -2
FMBAD5SE -24 -5 -12 -6 -11 -24 -4 -2
* Generation of alternatives is Compared to No Action
F123
Table F-74 NFPeis Resource Variable Operating Cost Nominal Mills per kwh
Plant 1993 2002 2012
EXISTING
WNP #2 2.58 4.38 7.74
COLSTP#1 8.95 14.85 27.45
COLSTP#2 8.95 14.85 27.45
COLSTP#3 10.22 17.07 31.62
COLSTP#4 10.22 17.07 31.62
CORETTE 12.93 21.12 38.90
BRIDGER#1 13.11 21.48 39.59
BRIDGER#2 13.11 21.48 39.59
BRIDGER#3 13.11 21.48 39.59
BRIDGER#4 13.11 21.48 39.59
VALMY#2 17.81 28.88 53.09
VALMY#l 17.88 28.99 53.29
CENTR#1 18.73 33.83 61.69
CENTR#2 18.73 33.83 61.69
BOARDMAN 18.82 32.87 61.10
BeaVER 19.05 45.17 88.54
BETHEL 26.24 63.54 124.84
NORTHeaST 27.44 62.71 122.41
WHITHRN#2 30.80 68.82 133.53
WHITHRN#3 30.80 68.62 133.53
FRED#1 30.80 68.62 133.53
FRED#2 30.80 68.62 133.53
FREDON#1 31.12 69.41 135.08
FREDON#2 31.12 69.41 135.08
WHITHRN#1 33.82 75.93 147.89
GENERIC
Simple CT 22.66 54.87 107.80
Combined CT 15.16 36.64 71.97
Coal 20.75 37.50 68.47
WNP#3 8.28 15.27 28.74
F124
Table F-75 BPA RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR HIGH LOADS* AVERAGE MW
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH*** CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 64 0 1230 1294
1994 Sep-93 117 95 1230 1442
1995 Sep-94 179 159 1476 1814
1996 Sep-95 248 417 1230 1895
1997 Sep-96 322 417 0 1460 2199
1998 Sep-97 402 417 0 1460 2279
1999 Sep-98 484 417 0 1825 2726
2000 Sep-99 571 417 0 1825 2813
2001 Sep-00 657 417 0 2190 3264
2002 Sep-01 738 552 0 2190 3480
2003 Sep-02 821 556 0 2190 3567
2004 Sep-03 901 560 0 2190 806 4457
2005 Sep-04 988 568 0 2190 806 4552
2006 Sep-05 1080 816 0 2190 806 4892
2007 Sep-06 1168 1010 0 2190 806 5174
2008 Sep-07 1246 1022 0 2190 806 5264
2009 Sep-08 1324 1026 0 2190 806 5346
2010 Sep-09 1397 1026 0 2190 806 5419
2011 Sep-10 1397 1026 0 2190 806 5419
2012 Sep-11 1397 1026 0 2190 806 5419
* BPA loads include generating public net requirements.
** Renewable resources include solar, geothermal, cogeneration, small hydro, etc.
Generic thermal resource capability per unit is; simple cycle CTs - 246 aMW,
combined cycle CTs - 365 aMW, coal - 426 aMW, and WNP3 - 806 aMW.
*** Under critical water, these resources are added to create a planning balance in the
SAM during those years where planned resource acquisitions are insufficient.
Purchases are modeled as short term increases in CT capability. The price to use this
capability is based on the operating cost of a CT. This is a proxy for the cost of short
term purchased power if needed by the SAM.
F125
Table F-76 IOU RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR HIGH LOADS AVERAGE MW*
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH** CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 10 0 984 994
1994 Sep-93 54 15 1230 1299
1995 Sep-94 142 30 1722 1894
1996 Sep-95 250 655 1230 2135
1997 Sep-96 364 975 738 1095 3172
1998 Sep-97 479 2131 0 1095 3705
1999 Sep-98 595 2488 0 1095 4178
2000 Sep-99 717 2828 0 1095 4640
2001 Sep-00 839 3137 0 1095 5071
2002 Sep-01 961 3205 0 1095 5261
2003 Sep-02 1083 3226 0 1095 426 5830
2004 Sep-03 1202 3244 0 1095 852 6393
2005 Sep-04 1308 3281 0 1095 1278 6962
2006 Sep-05 1394 3281 0 1095 1704 7474
2007 Sep-06 1478 3281 0 1095 1704 7558
2008 Sep-07 1563 3585 0 1095 2130 8373
2009 Sep-08 1645 3693 0 1095 2556 8989
2010 Sep-09 1727 3733 0 1095 2556 9111
2011 Sep-10 1727 3733 0 1095 2982 9537
2012 Sep-11 1727 3733 0 1095 3408 9963
* Renewable resources include solar, geothermal, cogeneration, small hydro, etc.
Generic thermal resource capability per unit is; simple cycle CTs - 246 aMW,
combined cycle CTs - 365 aMW, coal - 426 aMW, and WNP3 - 806 aMW.
** Under critical water, these resources are added to create a planning balance in the
SAM during those years where planned resource acquisitions are insufficient.
Purchases are modeled as short term increases in CT capability. The price to use this
capability is based on the operating cost of a CT. This is a proxy for the cost of short
term purchased power if needed by the SAM.
F126
Table F-77 BPA RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR LOW LOADS* AVERAGE MW**
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH*** CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1993 Sep-92 52 0 52
1994 Sep-93 93 95 188
1995 Sep-94 143 154 297
1996 Sep-95 201 412 613
1997 Sep-96 263 412 675
1998 Sep-97 331 412 743
1999 Sep-98 400 412 812
2000 Sep-99 468 412 880
2001 Sep-00 534 412 946
2002 Sep-01 596 412 1008
2003 Sep-02 660 412 1072
2004 Sep-03 663 412 1075
2005 Sep-04 667 412 1079
2006 Sep-05 670 412 1082
2007 Sep-06 673 412 1085
2008 Sep-07 677 412 1089
2009 Sep-08 681 412 1093
2010 Sep-09 685 412 1097
2011 Sep-10 685 412 1097
2012 Sep-11 685 412 1097
* BPA loads include generating public net requirements.
** Renewable resources include solar, geothermal, cogeneration, small hydro, etc.
Generic thermal resource capability per unit is; simple cycle CTs - 246 aMW,
combined cycle CTs - 365 aMW, coal - 426 aMW, and WNP3 - 806 aMW.
*** Under critical water, these resources are added to create a planning balance in the
SAM during those years where planned resource acquisitions are insufficient.
Purchases are modeled as short term increases in CT capability. The price to use this
capability is based on the operating cost of a CT. This is a proxy for the cost of short
term purchased power if needed by the SAM.
F127
Table F-78 IOU RESOURCE ADDITIONS FOR LOW LOADS AVERAGE MW*
OP COMBINED
YeaR DATE CONS RENS PURCH** CYCLE CT COAL WNP 3 TOTAL
1993 Sep-92 2 0 2
1994 Sep-93 18 0 18
1995 Sep-94 51 0 51
1996 Sep-95 108 0 108
1997 Sep-96 182 5 187
1998 Sep-97 261 15 276
1999 Sep-98 326 33 359
2000 Sep-99 381 37 418
2001 Sep-00 440 40 480
2002 Sep-01 504 106 610
2003 Sep-02 569 115 684
2004 Sep-03 625 124 749
2005 Sep-04 679 132 811
2006 Sep-05 738 141 879
2007 Sep-06 796 150 946
2008 Sep-07 851 159 365 1375
2009 Sep-08 900 165 365 1430
2010 Sep-09 949 165 365 1479
2011 Sep-10 949 165 365 1479
2012 Sep-11 949 165 365 1479
* Renewable resources include solar, geothermal, cogeneration, small hydro, etc.
Generic thermal resource capability per unit is; simple cycle CTs - 246 aMW,
combined cycle CTs - 365 aMW, coal - 426 aMW, and WNP3 - 806 aMW.
** Under critical water, these resources are added to create a planning balance in the
SAM during those years where planned resource acquisitions are insufficient.
Purchases are modeled as short term increases in CT capability. The price to use this
capability is based on the operating cost of a CT. This is a proxy for the cost of short
term purchased power if needed by the SAM.
F128