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Early Assessment: Mexico Floods Minimally Impact Coarse Grains
The unprecedented late summer 1999 rainfall over southern Mexico has had a limited affect on national grain production. Above-normal rainfall across the central plateau created flood conditions in the states Hidalgo and Veracruz, and also prompted the Government of Mexico to designate Jalisco, Michoacan, Puebla, and Tabasco as zones of disaster. Few of the major grain growing fields were touched by the overflow from swollen riverbeds prevalent in states along the east and west coastlines. However, the sheer volume of water that fell upon the region may cause quality issues to arise as plants move from maturation into the drydown phase. Current forecasts indicate the torrential rainfall should ease by October 20th.
A breakdown of central crop regions, and likely impact:
o The summer rice crop accounts for nearly 85 percent of Mexico's annual total in most years, and the east coast of states of Campeche, Tabasco, and Veracruz are centers for non-irrigated rice production, accounting for half the season's total in recent years. The crop is being harvested, and thus highly vulnerable to damage from the high winds and torrential rain experienced in those states. A more detailed assessment is not possible until the rain subsides.
o Corn across the central plateau (sometimes referred to as the "cornbelt") is approaching physiological maturity, and excessive moisture will slow progression to the drydown level appropriate to harvesting. Some loss due to insects and disease is possible, but Mexico's extended growing season suggests there is ample time for a satisfactory end to the major corn growing cycle.
o Sorghum across the central plateau is also approaching maturity. The main threat to these moisture-tolerant plants is excessive winds either shredding the sorghum heads, or knocking the plants onto saturated soil. The major production fields lie nearer the interior of the region, away from the flooding rivers.
o Wheat is predominately a winter crop in Mexico. Although Tlaxacala, Puebla, and Hidalgo are among the primary states for summer wheat, their contribution to the annual total is usually less than 10 percent. Lodging and outbreaks of pests and disease are probable in saturated wheat stands subjected to almost daily downpours since September.
o The southern third of Mexico is not a significant cotton producing area.
For more information, you may contact the author, Ron White, of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division of FAS at (202) 690-0137.
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