AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 140 PM EST THU JUN 22 2000 PRIMARY FCST ISSUE ARE POPS 4TH PERIOD AND BEYOND. 18Z SFC MAP ALG WITH SAT SHOWING DEEP LYRD CYCLONIC FLW CONTS ACRS FA SIG PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE AND MTRS SHOWING GUSTS TO 30KT AND 30KT+ FLW MIXES DOWN. PROFILERS INDICATING LOW LVL WIND FIELD WKG UPSTREAM IN RESPONSE TO UPR TROF THRU E LKS OPENING UP AND SHIFTING EWD. RUC ADVERTISES THIS SYS TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE EWD LTR THIS PM AND THE GRADIENT ALG WITH IT. 12Z MODELS SIMILAR WITH LG SCALE CONUS FTRS THIS CYCLE. HWVR DETAILS JUST THE OPPOSITE ESP WITH SW TROF DIGGING THRU PAC NW. NGM/AVN BOTH SEEM TO OVERDEVELOP THIS LD WAVE AND ARE TOO FAST WITH PROGGED AMPLIFICATION THRU EPAC. AVN ALSO LIKELY TOO FAR N AND E WITH ITS MONSTER MCV BY 12Z SAT OVR N LK MI. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS ALL 3 HAD BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR SAT AND WILL CONT THIS TREND. BEST CHC NW IN PROXIMITY TO THETA-E RIDGE/LOW LVL JET AND SFC BNDRY SAT. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND FRI. WARMER TEMPS FRI WITH BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF NGM MOS WHICH IS WAY TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE WET GROUND ACRS CWA AND MUCH HIGHER THERMAL INERTIA. .IWX...NONE. TEH in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 921 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000 SHORT TERM... NWS DATA NETWORK PROBLEMS HAVE KEPT 00Z DATA TO A MINIMUM, AND LIKELY WILL LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NEW ETA/NGM RUNS HANDLING MCS'S OVER THE PLAINS. LATEST GOES SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY OVER KS AND WESTERN MO AT THIS TIME. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY WAS UNDERFORECAST BY THE ETA MODEL. STATIONARY FRONT IS NEAR AN OMA-LWD-IRK LINE. WEAK CONVERGENCE LED TO A FEW STORMS S OF THE BORDER EARLIER, AND TCU HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ALSO ONE LONE SHRA TRYING TO FORM W OF LWD. RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL TRANSLATE NE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS 18Z ETA RUN SHOWED A NEW MCS TO DEVELOP OVER NE NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT. THIS STILL COULD HAPPEN, BUT 00Z SANGSTER AND 850/925 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OVER NE SD SOON. THIS AREA OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE SE INTO NW IA LATE TONIGHT PER 850-300MB THICKNESS/MBE MOTIONS DEPICTED BY FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. ALSO EXPECT LLJ AROUND 900 MB TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN SW IA. THIS COULD RELEASE THE STRONG INSTABILITY, PRODUCING A BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT. MAY ALSO RAISE TEMPS IN SOUTHERN IA AS DEW POINTS INCREASE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUD SHIELD MOVING IN. .DSM...NONE KULA ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1025 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2000 WILL UPDATE ZONES TO DROP EVENING WIND WORDING. MEANWHILE...LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WEST OF FORECAST AREA...0Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE TO 700 MB...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTED ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER PER UPSTREAM RADARS. MODEL SOUNDINGS/RH FORECASTS FROM 18Z MESOETA/21Z RUC SUGGEST THAT BAND OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-300K LAYER WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THUS...DESPITE CURRENT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECASTS FOR ALL BUT EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WILL ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/EARLIER RAINFALL AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG ALL GROUPS. .APX...NONE. ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1045 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2000 WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING IN TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEEP LOW TO THE NORTH. 12Z 850 MB PLOT SHOWED WIDESPREAD 40 KNOT WLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH GOOD MIXING GOING ON WILL UP THE WIND SPD FCST... BUT LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES IT SHOULD LET UP A BIT BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PULLS NE AND RIDGE APCHS. LOW LEVEL RH WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON... SO WILL KEEP THE MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST GOING. CU/SC SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD IN THE SRN COUNTIES... BUT SOME SCT-BKN DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STILL TAKE PLACE GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID TO UPR 50 DEW POINTS. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE NRN SECTIONS AS NEXT VORT DROPS SE...BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE MT PLEASANT/CLARE AREAS EARLY. .GRR...NONE. MEADE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2000 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A SECOND SHEARED-OUT VORT CENTER FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA IS PUSHING NORTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH HANGING BACK INTO MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS THINNING IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN SHORTWAVE. RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINGERING SPRINKLES FROM THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA HAVE ENDED. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM KINL SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700MB WITH CWPL A BIT DRIER. 12Z RUC INDICATES DRYING DURING THE DAY AS BAND OF 850-500MB QVECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 850MB DP 8-10C/ AND INSTABILITY /1000-850MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM/ FOR CU DEVELOPMENT. 850/700MB TEMPS MINUS 1000/850MB DEW POINTS YIELD NEGATIVE VALUES...ALSO INDICATING CU. WILL CONTINUE MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. WEAK-NEUTRAL QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHEARED VORT WILL NOT HURT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN DURING THE DAY AS LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE REGION PULLS EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN AS RIDGE/COL WORKS INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH EARLIER SUNSHINE SO WILL NUDGE UP HIGHS A BIT. .MQT...NONE. JHB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 920 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000 SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING TOWARD NE MN AT A FASTER PACE IN LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT SAT PIX SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND 88D MOSAIC INDICATES WEAKENING PCPN AS WELL. SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LINE IN ND...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD BY MORNING. WILL BRING IN PCPN TO W ZONES A BIT EARLIER...BUT WILL KEEP SCATTERED OR CHCY POPS THE SAME AS COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE COMPLETE. THE AIRMASS IS A BIT MORE STABLE IN OUR CWA PER RUC/LAPS MAPS. TEMPS HOLDING UP A BIT AS CI DECK SLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME MID LEVEL WAA EXPECTED BY MORNING AS WELL. WILL UP THE LOWS A NOTCH MOST ZONES. .DLH...NONE. SHIMON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 345 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000 SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER WEAK SFC RDG FM MISSOURI INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCT CU ARE FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS NRN MO WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS LI VALUES FROM -5 TO -8. RUC SOUNDING IN SAME AREA SHOWS DRY ADIABATIC FROM SFC TO 825MB...OR APPROX 5000 FT AGL...AND CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG FOR SFC PARCEL. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA...BUT IT APPEARS NOW THAT WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LEVELS TONIGHT WHERE INCREASED RH AND OMEGA SUPPORT GOING FCST OF PARTLY CLOUDY. BEST SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST INTO IOWA/MN/WI TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY. MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A NEW SFC BNDRY SETTLES OVER NRN MO/SRN IA TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER PRECIP. ZONES EAST AND SOUTH OF STL METRO AREA APPEAR TO HAVE LEAST CHANCE OF PRECIP NEXT FEW DAYS. GOING TEMPS DIFFER LITTLE FROM GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES. IN THE EXTENDED...MRF AND ECMWF BOTH DROP SFC FRONT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MO/IL BY SUN MORN...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCE IN ALL ZONES UNTIL SFC HIGH MOVES IN OVER AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .STL...NONE LENNING mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 900 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2000 LARGE SWATH OF RA AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA PROGRESSING EWD ATTM. FORTUNATELY THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX HAS DIMINISHED THANKS TO STABILIZATION FROM RAFL. IR TOPS WARMING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HRS AS WELL SUGGESTS CONTINUED WEAKENING FOR MOST OF THE CONVECTION. CURRENT LIFTED INDICES...PER MSAS...ARE ONLY IN THE LOW-MARGINAL RANGE WHILE A DECENT AXIS OF -4C TO -6C LIS CAN BE FOUND FROM N CENTRAL NC INTO NRN GA RESPECTIVELY. MAIN SFC TROF IS LAGGING BACK IN THIS GENERAL AREA AS WELL. MESO-ETA AND RUC SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN TREKKING S/WV ESEWD TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT DEEPEST MSTR OFF THE COAST. UNTIL THAT OCCURS PLAN ON RETAINING 30 POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MINS...ESP IN THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAFL. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CWF: SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OTRW THE CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK. .ILM...NONE. PFAFF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 850 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000 UPDATED THE SW CWA ZONE TO TAKE OUT THE POPS AND JUST GO SCT TS FOR TNGT...AS NRN END OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS STARTED TO MAKE IT INTO CWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWV OVR WRN PLAINS...AND RUC HAS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. IN ADDN...TS IS BUMPING INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HEADING EAST...SO WL HAVE A HARD TIME DOING MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT LATER ACTIVITY FM ARND MIDNIGHT ONWARD. BOTH RUC AND MESOETA PROG A GREAT STRENGTHENING IN LLVL JET...40 TO 50 KTS FM 900 TO 850MB BY MIDNIGHT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND WWRD. COUPLED WITH SOME LIFT AHD OF LLVL BNDRY MOVG IN FM THE WEST...WOULD EXPECT TS TO DVLP AGAIN AHD OF THIS BNDRY LATER TNGT. THE DIR AND SPEED WIND SHEAR IS SOME OF THE BEST I'VE SEEN THIS YEAR...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LLVLS. ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION WL THEREFORE FIRE...AND PSBLY SEVERE FM JAMES WWRD LATER TNGT. MESOETA CAPES AND HELICITY REALLY INCR SHARPLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z OVR THE WRN HALF OF CWA...SO WL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. RMNS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WL MAKE IT TOWARD I 29 VERY LATE TNGT. BUT SOME WL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER TO GIVE THE CNTRL PTNS OF CWA SOME TS LATE. ZONES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OTHERWISE...AND NO MORE UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM WITH THE DATA THAT I'VE LOOK AT. .FSD...NONE FUHS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 313 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POPS TODAY... DIFFICULT FORECAST AHEAD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING. KLNX VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS 45 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS ENHANCING LIFT AND PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE NEAR AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID MORNING AS SHORTWAVE BETTER DEPICTED USING THE 06Z RUC MODEL MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWED SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM LOW EAST OF PIR TO WEST OF VTN AND NORTH OF AIA AND TOR. 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 4 MBS OCCURRED WITH FRONT SOUTH OF TOR AND AIA BY 07Z. AVN MODEL OF CHOICE WITH CURRENT PROBLEMS AT NCF LIMITING DATA INPUT. POSITION OF FRONT BY AFTERNOON TO IMPACT POPS AND TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF FRONT. THE SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALSO. THE 06Z RUC POSITIONS THE FRONT FROM NEAR BASSETT TO IMPERIAL BY 18Z AND STALLS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE BE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY NOON WITH ORGANIZE LIFT APPEARING TO LACK ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ALONG 8H FRONTAL POSITION WITH LITTLE SHIFT OCCURRING IN POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. 8H LOW LEVEL JET TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF AREA. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER FOR DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DRIEST AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S NORTH CENTRAL WITH GUIDANCE CLOSE AND FOLLOWED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. ON SATURDAY THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR WITH AMBLE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INITALLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...THEN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE EXTENDED DRIER AIR TO RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STALLS WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .LBF...NONE. TLK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1050 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000 CONCERNS FOR THE AFTN ARE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS. CLDS THICKENING RAPIDLY ACRS THE CWA ATTM AS DEBRIS FM AREA OF PCPN TO THE W CONTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FA. ACTUAL RAIN HAVING A MUCH HARDER TIME DVLPG E HOWEVER AS SYS OUTRUNS 35KT JET THAT WAS FEEDING LOW LVL MSTR NEWD. KDLH RADAR SHOWS DRYING ALG LEADING EDGE ACRS N CNTR WI... THO OVERALL THERE IS SOME GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS OF 30DBZ RETURNS. 12Z RUC/ETA HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE S/WV ASSOC W/ THIS PCPN AND FCST IT TO WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT ZIPS ALG IN FAST ZONEAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THEY ARE NOT SEEING THE PCPN OVR NRN WI AT ALL...SO THE FACT THAT THEY DOESN/T SHOW ANYTHING IN WI BORDER CNTYS THIS AFTN IS SUSPECT. WL RELY...FOR NOW...ON PERSISTENCE AND THAT FACT THAT ZONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WHAT PCPN RMNS INTACT PCPN WL CONT TO MOVE E AND AFFECT MAINLY WI BORDER CNTYS. BARAGA/MQT ZONES SAY LATE ALRDY...BUT WL FINE TUNE WORDING EVEN MORE. TEMPS SLOW TO RISE THIS MORG ALG THE WI BORDER AND THICKENING CLDS WON/T HELP. WL OPEN UP A RANGE FM GOG/ONT TO MNM...BUT LEAVE FCST UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE. .MQT...NONE. DESROSIERS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 658 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000 QUICK UPDATE TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI ALL DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. RUC HOLDS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THRU THE MORNING...THEN CI SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. .APX...NONE. FARINA mi NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 845 AM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000 SHORT TERM...WESTERLIES TO REMAIN NORTH OF NEVADA WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE FLOW WEAK OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. SHORT WAVE THAT PASSED NORTH OF NEVADA HAS PUSHED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA LINE UP WELL WITH LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTING THE BEST CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH. DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. .EKO...NONE. WHITWORTH N nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC 955 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000 DRIER AMS WL BLD INTO CWA NXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC TROF OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACRS AREA YTDA NOW XTNDS FROM VA CAPES TO XTRM NE SC. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP ATTM WL OFSHR. LEFTOVR MID-LVL CLDS CONTINUE TO MOV EWRD AS DRIER AIR MOVS IN. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM ETA...MESOETA...AND RUC...ALL SHOW FAIRLY DRY DAY TDA WITH ONLY SOME AFTN CU. SOUNDING FCST MAXES ARE IN THE 92-95 DEGREE RANGE. DEWPTS SHUD LVL OFF IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. SO MOSTLY SUNNY LUKS GD FOR THIS AFTN. ONLY CHANGE PLANNED IS TO MENTION LGT SE WNDS INSTEAD OF LGT AND VRBL. FCSTID = 22 CAE 93 70 94 70 / 0 0 10 10 AGS 94 66 92 67 / 0 0 10 10 SSC 95 69 94 70 / 0 0 10 10 OGB 95 72 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. BC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 330 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000 WELL DEFINED VORT MOVING EAST THROUGH IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS KICKING OFF QUITE A TSTM COMPLEX. 12Z PROGS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE BASED ON SATELLITE... BUT LATEST RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT. BY 06Z...VORT SHOULD BE NEAR CHICAGO/SRN LK MI AREA. LOW TO MID 70 DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND FEED INTO THE COMPLEX. WARM FRONT IS SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DBQ TO IND AT 19Z AND IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY NE TONIGHT. MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RIDE E/SE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... TAKING IT INTO AT LEAST FAR SW MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. FEEL LIKELY POPS QUITE JUSTIFIED S OF I96 AND W OF I69 AFTER MIDNIGHT. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH PCPN MIGHT BE TONIGHT... AND LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL QPFS FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN THEMSELVES MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. EARLIER PACKAGE HAD LIKELY POP IN WRN SECTIONS NORTH TO LUDINGTON... AND WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY FOR NOW. SATELLITE SUGGESTS ANOTHER (WEAKER) VORT MAX COMING EAST FROM SW MN AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS NOW FIRING NORTH OF THE MAIN BATCH. FOR THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA... HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP SATURDAY FCST UNCHANGED GIVEN THE MYRIAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF VORTS COMING THROUGH THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS SETTLING IN... ANY SUNSHINE WILL GIVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SET CONVECTION OFF. SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE WITH TIME AND HARD TO DETERMINE WHERE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN LATER PERIODS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDE THROUGH. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WITH CHC POPS SAT NGT AND SUNDAY. MEADE EXTENDED FORECAST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A SHORT WAVE TROF TO SWING THRU THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NITE AND MONDAY. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE BROAD LONG WAVE TROF WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AFFECTING THE CWA THROUGH WED TOO. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUE AND INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PCPN ON WED AS A VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH. .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000 IN LAST AFD MENTIONED THINKING ABOUT INCREASING POPS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HAVE DECIDED ON FFA FOR MUCH OF CWFA BASED ON LATEST QPFERD PRODUCT AND COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. MSAS CONTINUES TO SHOW LI VALUES NEAR -10 AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND RUC KEEPS THESE VALUES GOING INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL PRECIP FIELDS NOT IN AGREEMENT BUT ALL SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT THIS EVENING ACROSS NERN MO/SWRN IL AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO AND NE OF STL METRO AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THE MOVEMENT AND INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...SFC TROFS...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALL MODELS KEEP A SFC FRONT WELL NW OF CWFA EVEN BY SUN MORNING...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION INTO MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS/LOWS AND LATER PERIODS. COORD WITH EAX...SGF...ILX...DVN. .STL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483 FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS UNTIL 800 PM. LENNING mo