EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 920 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 RADAR DETECTING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE LAND PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST ABOUT DONE FOR THE DAY. EVENING UPDATES...ZONES...RIGHT NOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS TAKING THE COASTAL SHOWERS ON A PATH TO AFFECT THE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH TO FORT PIERCE INLET. LATEST RUC SERIES FORECAST THE BOUNDARY FLOW TO BECOME PARELLEL TO THE COAST LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN LIGHT SOUTH AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL REMOVE POPS FROM SOUTHERN ZONES. OFFSHORE WEATHER BUOYS REPORTING WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT...8 SECOND PERIOD...SEAS. MARINE ZONES WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO SEA HEIGHTS BASED ON CURRENT BUOY OBS. .MLB...NONE. $$ WIMMER/SPRATT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 940 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 ...SHORT TERM UPDATE... BAND OF PCPN MVG EWD THRU LMK FA ATTM, AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. HAVE BEEN USING RUC PW FIELDS TO FCST MVMT AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF PCPN IN HOURLY NDFD GRIDS, WHICH HAS PROVED FRUITFUL. VERY HIGH PCPN EFFICIENCY CELLS EARLIER, WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEARING 14KFT AND PWS LOCALLY POOLING TO NEAR 2.5" BTWN KSDF-KBWG PER 12Z LMK-MM5. PCPN BAND WILL CONT TRANSLATING EWD DURING OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH SERN AREAS OF FA (LAKE CUMBERLAND) LAST TO SEE PCPN DEPART. WITH A GOOD SWATH OF PCPN DEPOSITED OVER FA (0.25-0.75" COMMON), AT LEAST SOME HAZE OR GROUND FOG LIKELY TOWARDS SUNRISE. PER RUC, LIMITING FACTOR FOR TRUE FG FORMATION ARE WIND FIELDS/SHEAR IN LOWEST 500 FT AGL SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LATE NIGHT TURBULENT EDDIES, ALTHOUGH ETA FCST WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT LIGHTER AND RECENT MOS SUGGESTS SOME BR. DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BL SATURATION TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERALL, WILL ADD "PATCHY" FG TO ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT. A NICE LITTLE RAIN WE HAD...THE GRASS WAS LOOKING A LITTLE DRY THERE FOR A COUPLE DAYS. XXV $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1045 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE -SHRA TRENDS ALONG WITH WINDS. WV IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED 548 DM H5 CLOSED LO BTWN CYQT/CYPL. AT THE SFC...TROF EXTENDED TOWARD NE MN FROM LO PRES NEAR JAMES BAY LEAVING WRLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE WRN LAKES. ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC WRAP AROUND FLOW...COLD H7 TEMPS NEAR -4C ALONG WITH LEFTOVER DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES THIS EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT HAS KEPT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH GOING OVER THE KEWEENAW. EXPECT -SHRA TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...NEXT LOBE OF ENHANCED LO LVL MOISTURE AND H8 THERMAL TROF FCST TO SWING THROUGH THE WRN LAKE TOWARD THE KEWEENAW MAY KEEP SOME -SHRA GOING INTO NW UPR MI. 00Z ETA AND RUC SUGGEST WINDS OVER THE NW WILL ALSO DIMINISH AFT 06Z AS WEAK ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT SHIFTS TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. WHILE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...CAA SHOULD STILL PUSH VALUES NEAR FCST MINS. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 641 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR PULLING ON OUT OF SOUTHEAST MI TO THE EAST...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING FORECAST. ANTICIPATE UPDATING AROUND 7 PM TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY EASTERN COUNTIES. DWD FULL AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL LOWER...WITH WEAKER ECHOES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAIN QUESTION IS WITH ONGOING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z DTX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS T/TD OF 85/71 GIVES CAPES NEAR 3500J/KG. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDING FOR SAME CONDITIONS GIVES CAPES NEAR 2700J/KG. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GOOD INSOLATION WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MAIN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS EAST OF THE STATE FROM OHIO TO ONTARIO...WITH NEGATIVE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TO INHIBIT GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION TO GET SOME STORMS GOING. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND APPARENT INSTABILITY WOULD STILL ARGUE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISTINCT BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST LIKELY WILL WORD THE ZONES AS CATEGORICAL CENTRAL-NORTH/NUMEROUS FAR SOUTH FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY OUT OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY BY THE TIME THE ZONES ARE ISSUED. VIS SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE CLEARING EDGE ALREADY WORKING INTO WESTERN LOW. THICK CU FIELD BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN THAT IS DIURNALLY ENHANCE...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLEAR. DEWPOINT ALSO DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH IN SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DEPICTED BY BOTH ETA/GFS MOVING THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL REMOVE THUNDER AND INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. D3D/VIS-5D TRAJECTORIES SHOW LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS ORIGINATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING...WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW. WITH SOME SUN STILL SEE US GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER THERMAL TROUGH. NEXT ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...CARVING OUT ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. DECENT WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...LEADING TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF TSRA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH MODERATE POP. DEEP MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY A LOW POP INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE DESPITE WARM ADVECTION...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TO START THE WEEK WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD THOUGH...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING AT THE SURFACE. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN REALLY DIVERGE WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BY ABOUT 24 HOURS COMPARED TO THE 00Z/25 RUN...BRINGING IT IN LATE THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO LATE WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED TIMING WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE THURSDAY PERIOD. ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE WEAK LIFT THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL MOISTURE RETURN TO GO ALONG WITH THE WARMING WE REMAIN RATHER STABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. .DTX...NONE. $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 400 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL LOWER...WITH WEAKER ECHOES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAIN QUESTION IS WITH ONGOING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z DTX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS T/TD OF 85/71 GIVES CAPES NEAR 3500J/KG. MODIFIED 18Z RUC SOUNDING FOR SAME CONDITIONS GIVES CAPES NEAR 2700J/KG. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GOOD INSOLATION WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MAIN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS EAST OF THE STATE FROM OHIO TO ONTARIO...WITH NEGATIVE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TO INHIBIT GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION TO GET SOME STORMS GOING. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND APPARENT INSTABILITY WOULD STILL ARGUE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISTINCT BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST LIKELY WILL WORD THE ZONES AS CATEGORICAL CENTRAL-NORTH/NUMEROUS FAR SOUTH FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY OUT OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY BY THE TIME THE ZONES ARE ISSUED. VIS SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE CLEARING EDGE ALREADY WORKING INTO WESTERN LOW. THICK CU FIELD BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN THAT IS DIURNALLY ENHANCE...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLEAR. DEWPOINT ALSO DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH IN SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DEPICTED BY BOTH ETA/GFS MOVING THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL REMOVE THUNDER AND INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. D3D/VIS-5D TRAJECTORIES SHOW LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS ORIGINATING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING...WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW. WITH SOME SUN STILL SEE US GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER THERMAL TROUGH. NEXT ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...CARVING OUT ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. DECENT WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...LEADING TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF TSRA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH MODERATE POP. DEEP MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY A LOW POP INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE DESPITE WARM ADVECTION...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TO START THE WEEK WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD THOUGH...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING AT THE SURFACE. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN REALLY DIVERGE WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BY ABOUT 24 HOURS COMPARED TO THE 00Z/25 RUN...BRINGING IT IN LATE THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO LATE WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED TIMING WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE THURSDAY PERIOD. ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE WEAK LIFT THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL MOISTURE RETURN TO GO ALONG WITH THE WARMING WE REMAIN RATHER STABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. .DTX...NONE. $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1055 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTN IS POTENTIAL OF SHRA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO SWD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS PIVOTING THRU NRN MN...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST THIS AFTN. OVER THE UPPER LAKES...MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS DRIVING THRU THE AREA ON 95KT JET STREAK. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT JUST PASSED KISQ AND WAS NEARING KERY. VIS IMAGERY REVEALS BKN LOW CLOUDS LINGERING WWD ACROSS UPPER MI INTO NRN MN WHERE CLOUD DECK IS EVEN MORE EXTENSIVE. NO SURPRISE THEN TO SEE 12Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWING FOR THE MOST PART A SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 625MB. A FEW REPORTS OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES NOTED UNDERNEATH THE NEARLY SOLID OVC STRATOCU DECK IN NRN MN...BUT RADARS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES. RUC SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MN WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT HEADS OVER UPPER MI THIS AFTN WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE (PER 12Z KINL SOUNDING) BEGINS TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA. LITTLE FORCING TO SPEAK OF NOTED ON RUC...BUT W HALF OF FCST AREA DOES GET UNDER CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET STREAK AS IT TRANSLATES EWD TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR SFC T/TD OF 67/49 GIVES MINIMAL CAPE OF UNDER 100J/KG...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK. GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTING MIXING. WITH 950MB FLOW REMAINING AT 20-30KT...GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON. EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR SO. .MQT...NONE. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 932 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003 WILL BE MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. 00Z RUC SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY TO OUR NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IN FACT..QUITE AN AREA OF H8-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOW OVER EASTERN ND WILL MOVE SE AND PASS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA NEAR 12Z. KMVX RADAR INDICATES PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN ND ATTM. ALSO..00Z H25 ANAL SHOWING A 70 KNOT WIND MAX POKING INTO ND. THE RUC TAKES THIS FEATURE SE INTO SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT. THIS PLACES THE NE HALF OF THE CWA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND BUFKIT HOURLY DATA FROM THE 00Z RUC INDICATES CAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 500 MB DURING THE NIGHT WITH VALUES UP TO 300 J/KG. .MSP...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY FOR TODD COUNTY. $$ RAH mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 335 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003 OPEN CELLULAR CU EVIDENT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS THROUGH 1945 GMT. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OF THE CU FIELD COINCIDE NICELY WITH FORECAST TQ INDEX VALUES AROUND 16 TO 19C OVER CWA. AWIPS GENERATED ETA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED DECENT CAPE BELOW 650 MB SO WE HAVE SOME THUNDER MENTIONED GOING INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PASS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN LATER PERIODS...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE TIMED IN A BASIC WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. MODEL RESOLUTION OF A FEW JET STREAKS ADDED CONFIDENCE TO CONVECTIVE TIMING AS DID FORECAST CAPE/LI/SHOWALTER FIELDS. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS INDICATED NEXT WEEK. .MSP...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR TODD CNTY. $$ mn NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED TO ADJUST CCF TABLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 755 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2003 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT UPDATES PLANNED...MAINLY TO FRESHEN WORDING OF ZONES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED WITH APPROACH OF NIGHTFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE SLACKENED EXCEPT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CORNERS OF CWA. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO THINNED OUT...BUT NOW MAINLY UPPER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. RUC...MESO-ETA...AND AVN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVING A COOL FRONT ACROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO WILL WANT TO RETAIN MENTION OF SHOWERS BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...UPDATE WILL BE TO REDUCE WINDS AND LIMIT SHOWERS TO LATE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY...ALBEIT LESS THAN DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASING TO UPPER RANGE OF PARTLY CLOUDY LATE. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY AND COOL. UPDATE LIMITED TO FIRST PERIOD. DNS .LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU... THE 4 TO 7 DAY PATTERN LOOKS QUITE TYPICAL OF THE FIRST HALF OF JULY WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS BUILDS NORTH ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON NE MT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY REALLY HOT WEATHER. FOR THE MOST PART...THE RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE BC COAST WILL BE FACTOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS COMMON IN AN ACTIVE AND STRONG EARLY JULY THUNDERSTORM PATTERN...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED. WOULD EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NE MT. THE CMC AND UKMET LOOK MOST THREATENING WITH THE UPPER LOW. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND THEN BASICALLY DRY AFTER THAT. ONGOING FORECAST IS FINE. SIMONSEN KGGW EBU 053/077 052/077 054/084 86322000 EEBE 059/088 054/082 055/084 056/085 8203300000 KGDV EBB 051/079 050/078 054/083 86222000 EEUB 059/087 058/085 056/087 057/085 8203300000 .GGW...NONE. $$ mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1010 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 WILL JUST TWEEK GRIDS A BIT...NO PLANNING ZONE UPDATE AS CURRENT ZONE FORECAST REFLECT CONDITIONS WELL. NICOSIA PRVS DSCN BELOW... BIG PICTURE...SOMEWHAT PROGREESIVE 500 MB FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL BECOME MORE STAGNANT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NERN US OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OPEN UP A BIT. THEN SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA PATTERN SETS UP WITH SHALLOW TROUGHS OVER PAC NW AND CAN MARITIMES. TONIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER ERNCWA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...AS WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHES. SOME CI WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...BUT PROB NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME RAD COOLING...BEFORE MORE SIG CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS RACING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH...GFS AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC ARE THE FASTER MODELS...PUSHING THE FRONT WELL INTO CWA BY 12Z...ETA/GEM SLOWER WITH FRONT ARRIVING INTO WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 12Z. WILL BE STICKING WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND BRING CHC POPS INTO WRN ZONES LATE. FRIDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ETA/GEM...AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE FRONT A BIT...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL IT HAS PASSED MIDWAY THRU CWA. THUNDER MOST LIKELY IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON S AND W OF I-88...WHERE THE SUN WILL HAVE TIME TO GENERATE THE MOST INSTABILITY. CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE ARE SLIM...BUT COULD A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO IN NE PA OR SULLIVAN CTY. WILL BE CONTINUING TIMING OF PREV FORECAST BUT FINE TUNING A BIT WITH HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...BUT NOT UNTIL EVE SE ZONES. FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT...WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN UNDER WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH...AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...MINS WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL SAT MORNING...BUT SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR 80 ON SAT. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ON SAT...SO EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP ON SAT...BUT M/S SHOULD COVER IT. SAT NIGHT-THU...ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINOR TWEEKS IN THE XTNDD PCKG BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE. KEPT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NGT ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA, BUT RESTRICTED THE CHCS ON MONDAY TO THE MRNG HRS ACRS SE ZONES, CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT. OTRW THE PTRN FAVORS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE DIFFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE POTNL OF SOME SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NXT WEEK (ALTHO WAVES WILL HAVE LIMITED MSTR TO WORK WITH). .BGM...NONE. SHORT...CEMPA EXTENDED...BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 258 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 BIG PICTURE...SOMEWHAT PROGREESIVE 500 MB FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL BECOME MORE STAGNANT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NERN US OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OPEN UP A BIT. THEN SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA PATTERN SETS UP WITH SHALLOW TROUGHS OVER PAC NW AND CAN MARITIMES. TONIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER ERNCWA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...AS WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHES. SOME CI WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...BUT PROB NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME RAD COOLING...BEFORE MORE SIG CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS RACING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH...GFS AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC ARE THE FASTER MODELS...PUSHING THE FRONT WELL INTO CWA BY 12Z...ETA/GEM SLOWER WITH FRONT ARRIVING INTO WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 12Z. WILL BE STICKING WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND BRING CHC POPS INTO WRN ZONES LATE. FRIDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ETA/GEM...AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE FRONT A BIT...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL IT HAS PASSED MIDWAY THRU CWA. THUNDER MOST LIKELY IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON S AND W OF I-88...WHERE THE SUN WILL HAVE TIME TO GENERATE THE MOST INSTABILITY. CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE ARE SLIM...BUT COULD A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO IN NE PA OR SULLIVAN CTY. WILL BE CONTINUING TIMING OF PREV FORECAST BUT FINE TUNING A BIT WITH HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...BUT NOT UNTIL EVE SE ZONES. FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT...WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN UNDER WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH...AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...MINS WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL SAT MORNING...BUT SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR 80 ON SAT. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ON SAT...SO EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP ON SAT...BUT M/S SHOULD COVER IT. SAT NIGHT-THU...ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINOR TWEEKS IN THE XTNDD PCKG BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE. KEPT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NGT ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA, BUT RESTRICTED THE CHCS ON MONDAY TO THE MRNG HRS ACRS SE ZONES, CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT. OTRW THE PTRN FAVORS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE DIFFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE POTNL OF SOME SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NXT WEEK (ALTHO WAVES WILL HAVE LIMITED MSTR TO WORK WITH). .BGM...NONE. SHORT...CEMPA EXTENDED...BRADY ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 310 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003 SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z DEPICTED A PREFRONTAL TROF FROM NW OH INTO SE IN. BEST INSTABILITY ASSOCD WITH PREFRONTAL TROF ATTM. MEANWHILE...SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GSH TO NEAR IND...THEN SW INTO SRN IL. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT. SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF OHIO UNTIL 8 PM EDT. AS STATED ABOVE...BEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROF. KILN RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE NW CWFA WHERE SOME UPR DIV FROM RR ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WAS LOCATED. SEVERE WX THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WHERE CELL CORES CAN GET ENOUGH ELEVATION TO CREATE WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY (DELTA THETA E FROM SFC TO 500 MB AROUND 25 KELVIN...POINTING TO MICROBURST POTENTIAL). ETA MODEL MAY BE OVERDOING SFC TO 850 MB CONV WHILE THE LATEST RUC WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOW LVL CONV AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. RIGHT NOW...THINKING ABOUT 60 POPS NORTHWEST TO 50 POPS ELSEWHERE...BUT MAY MAKE A LATEST MINUTE DECISION ON THIS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGES BEFORE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...ONCE COLD FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN. WOULD EXPECT FASTER CLEARING OVERNIGHT IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE HIGH LVL CIRRUS IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL SHOW GRADUALLY CLEARING WEST WITH EVENUTAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL AFTN CU...BUT TOUGH CALL ATTM WHETHER IT WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTN. WILL WORD FCST MOSTLY SUNNY. UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS. WITH S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND WRN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MID CLOUDS WILL SKIRT FROM CONVECTION THERE INTO THE NRN CWFA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS/ETA ARE NOW BOTH SHOWING NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REALLY GETTING SHEARED APART BY SUNDAY. ETA WOULD SUGGEST DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WHILE GFS WOULD INDICATED A SMALL CHC FOR AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP SMALL CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWFA. 06Z GFS WAS TRENDING DRIER ACRS THE NRN CWFA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LEAVEING A SMALL CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SRN CWFA. BUT WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SHEARING FRONT APART AND ALLOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL PULL PRECIP FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .ILN...NONE. HICKMAN oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1005 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003 FIRST ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MN. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-G CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. LATEST ETA AND RUC MODEL SUGGEST THE Q-G CONVERGENCE IS GOING TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. APPROPRIATE ZONES WERE UPDATED AT 03Z TO INCORPORATE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. .LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 323 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003 FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEMS. IN THE SHORT TERM...WEATHER NIL OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIRMASS SETTLES OVER REGION TONIGHT. ETA/GFS/NGM/RUC DECREASE WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S ADVECTING TOWARD CWA. WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN RESPECT FOR THESE DEW POINTS. ON FRIDAY ADJUSTED TIMING FOR SHOWERS FOR JUST AFTERNOON HOURS AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHOWER CHANCES BEST DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH ETA/GFS WEAK MID LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. IN THE FAR TERM...ETA/GFS BOTH FAVOR HOLDING OFF INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH APPROACHING PLAINS WEATHER SYSTEM UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL JET TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN WILL KEEP DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH ETA TRIES TO DEPICT DRY INTRUSION DURING AFTERNOON. PROGS HOWEVER PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH WEAK SUMMER LIKE WEATHER SYSTEMS EVOLVING TO KEEP BOUNDARY CLOSE TO CWA FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. .MKX...NONE. $$ TZ wi SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 330 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2003 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TODAY AND TONIGHT). CURRENTLY...QUIET NIGHT OVER THE CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AT KRTN AND KLVS. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER THE RATON RIDGE...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DESCENDING OFF OF THE RATON RIDGE. FOG PRODUCT INDICATES SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF KTAD. FOR TODAY...NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER WEAK SURGE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THE LATEST MESOETA SUGGEST AND RUC SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. I HAVE PUT SOME 20 POPS INTO THESE AREAS. THE ETA HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND 20 POPS IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES LOOK GOOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SO CONTINUED DRY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ETA HAS 1500 CAPE AT 06Z OVER BACA COUNTY AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIP MAY LAST PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT CIN IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE LARGE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GENERAL AREA OF 20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. THIS LOOKS OK FOR NOW. WITH EASTERLY FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE MODELS...TO MOVE WESTWARD. DAYSHIFT CAN TRY TO FINE TUNE POSITION OF SUBTLE FEATURES. WEST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...STILL DRY AND MILD. -PGW- LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE SURGE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SLOWLY INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW. MESO-ETA SUGGESTS CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG...WITH VALUES PUSHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS. WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WITH SWODY2 SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKING REASONABLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO SOME SORT OF MCS ON THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING...WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG THE KS BORDER. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY DEEPER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE A HEALTHY ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS... AND WITH CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...ISOLATED SEVERE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS...SO AGAIN NO CHANGES NEEDED. MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK TOWARD CO WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE WARMING AND DRYING PROCESS OVER THE EAST...WHILE WRN ZONES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR GENERALLY DRY AND HOT WX. STILL COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LESS THAN SAT/SUN. TUE-THU...CURRENT DRY AND HOT FCST LOOKS GOOD AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER CO AND TAKES ON A MORE SW-NE ORIENTATION. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRIER SWRLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER CO...AND WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 18-20C SUSPECT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO NUDGE UP MAX TEMP GRIDS A DEGREE OR 2 EACH DAY. --PETERSEN .PUB...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 318 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTER PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DISCUSSION...OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE EASTERN NA UPPER RIDGE PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION NEARLY OVR THE LAST WEEK. IN ITS STEAD...TYPICAL WRLYS ALF FEATURING SEVERAL S/WVS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. FEW CHGS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST PCKG WHICH HAD GOOD HANDLE OF WX ELEMENTS THRU PD 6. TDY AND TNGT: NOTICED THAT SPC PLACED NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WE AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THIS PTN OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE COLD FRONTAL TIMING...WE HAVE TWO CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WEATHER. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ETA HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING LLVL DEWPOINT TEMPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY CAPES BY NEARLY A FACTOR OF TWO OVR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE SECOND IS THAT OUR FA IS STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH H7 TEMPS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEG C CATEGORY WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING BELOW 8 DEG C OVR THE W UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. WITH THIS SAID...FAVORABLE FACTORS DO INCLUDE WEAK LLVL FRONTOGENSIS/CNVRG AND MID LVL Q-VEC CNVGR. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RUC SOUNDING DATA IS STILL NOT AVAILABLE OUT TO 21Z...THE XPCTED CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME...BUT WE ANTICIPATE ACTUAL CAPES MORE IN LINE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE N AND W RATHER THAN 3000 J/KG FORECASTED BY THE ETA. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SVR. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ENHANCED TSTM WORDING IN THE ZFP TO ALLOW SPC TO RE-EVALUATE SVR POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA IN THEIR LATE MORNING UPDATE. WE WILL ISSUE A CONVECTIVE SPS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TSTMS ACROSS SPCLY NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE SUNNY START AND VERY WARM LLVL ATMOSPHERE...WE WENT A LITTLE ABOVE BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS TDY. SAT...CONT/D W/CHC POPS EXTREME ERN CWA FOR THE MORNING AS FRONT CLEARS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. UPPER S/WV DRIVES THRU THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...ATMOS DRIES OUT W/DECENT CAA. GUID MIGHT BE UNDER WINDS A BIT. ANYWAY...MUCH DRIER & PLEASANT WX. TEMPS AOA 80 W/AID IN DOWNSLOPE EVEN AT THE COAST. LOOKING FURTHER OUT: ANOTHER LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE N & W SUNDAY NIGHT & THEN I TRANSLATED EVERYTHING E ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/FROPA. HIGH PRES PROGGED BY THE LATEST MRF/GFS/GEM & EURO GUID TO MOVE OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY & REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APCHS ON FRIDAY W/THE NEXT THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA. MARINE... NO HEADLINES W/THIS PKG. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECMG W EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE AREA. AVIATION...VSBY 3-5 MILES IN HAZE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 22-02Z OVER THE NORTH...00-04Z CENTRAL AND 02-06Z ACROSS DOWNEAST. .CAR...NONE. VJN/LF me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 545 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003 FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LINGERING ISOLATED SHRA TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. WV LOOP...00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPR TROF AXIS ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPR RDG OVR THE ERN PACIFIC. BTWN THESE FEATURES UPSTREAM SHRTWV/JET MAX NOTED OVR PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. TODAY...COOLER DAY IN STORE AS 8H THERMAL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS OF 1-2C IN THE NORTH AND 4-6C SOUTH. W/ MIXING TO 800-850MB...THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...WITH COOLEST READINGS (50S) ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDINGS FOR TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AND DEWPTS IN MID 40S YIELD CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG. GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY AND COOL 5H TEMPS OF -19C TO MOVE OVRHD THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLD SHRA ACROSS CWA. BELIEVE SHRA ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH WEST IN AFT AS UPR TROF AXIS MOVES MORE OVR ERN FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT...SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR AREA AS SKIES CLR AND WINDS BCM LGT. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER MINS TO UPR 30S OR AROUND 40 FOR INLAND AREAS...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE...UNDER PRIME RAD COOLING CONDS. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHRTWV/SPEED MAX OVR NRN ROCKIES SCHEDULED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVR NRN GRT LAKES AND UPR MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS AS ETA AND CANADIAN MODEL DVLP DEEPER SYSTEM OVR SRN WI AND TRACK SFC LOW TO MACKINAC STRAITS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS AND UKMET SHOWING WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH OVR NRN LWR MI. ETA/CANADIAN MODEL ALSO ADVERTISING BEST UPR DIV OVR AREA WITH DUAL 3H JET STRUCTURE...ONE JET MAX OF 60-80 KT JET DIVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE 60KT JET DEPARTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT ETA AND CANADIAN MODELS MUCH WETTER FOR UPR MI THAN GFS OR UKMET. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS CWA. ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SRLY SFC LOW TRACK HINTED AT BY MODELS...HAVE DECIDED TO ONLY KEEP CHC OF THUNDER FOR ONLY SRN TIER COUNTIES SAT AND SAT EVENING WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY CLOSER TO WARM SECTOR OF SFC LOW. GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN HAVE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK HIGHS SATURDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATES DOWN BACK OF LINGERING UPR LOW. WL KEEP CHC OF SHRA ACROSS CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AND LESS RAIN COOLED AIR AROUND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 8-10C OVRHD...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TO BE REACHED. IN THE EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE AS DRY FCST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MON AND TUE WITH NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WED AND THU AS ANOTHER SHRTWV/CDFNT DUE IN FM PLAINS. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 345 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2003 SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE EWX/CRP CWA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. RUC THETA-E ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT ALSO REVEALS THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER/COOLER AIR UP OVER NORTH-CNTRL TX. FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPR LVL DYNAMICS WITH THIS UNUSUAL JUNE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WERE FORMING OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION DOWN INTO MATAGORDA BAY AND DRIFTING SOUTH. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE CONCERNING POPS AND DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. 00Z CRP SOUNDING HAD OVER 2" OF PWS AND WAS FAIRLY MOIST ALL THE WAY UP SO WE HAVE THE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. GFS WAS MUCH WETTER AND MAV GUIDANCE WANTED TO HANG ONTO HIGHER POPS ACROSS CWA THROUGH AFTERNOON. ETA SOLUTION WAS DRIER. MESOETA PUSHED CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CWA BY 21Z AND BROUGHT IN LARGE AREA OF NEGATIVE OMEGA ACROSS HEART OF CWA BY 00Z. THINK CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NE COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE FRONT ENOUGH OF A PUSH INTO COASTAL WATERS THAT I CAN TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. CONCERNED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES..PARTICULARLY WEST WERE PUSH WONT BE AS FAST. WILL HANG ONTO HIGHER POPS SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE FRONT...OR AT LEAST CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR DOWN INTO BRO'S AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE MARINE FOR TONIGHT WHERE FONT LIKELY TO WASH OUT. LONG TERM (SAT-THU)...MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT WITH SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT WILL TREND MY SOLUTION CLOSER AS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. OVERALL I DONT PLAN ON MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES EXCEPT TO PLACE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE AXIS FROM WASHED OUT FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING INTERACT. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APCHG TROPICAL WAVE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERGING FURTHER WITH REGARDS TO THIS WAVE. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE WAVE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS COAST TUE/WED. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR TUE...CHC WED AND SLGT CHC THU. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NE-ELY DIRECTION THRU TUE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW IN THE WRN GULF. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: CRP EB 090/073 091/072 093 40101 VCT EB 091/070 092/071 094 3-000 LRD EB 095/074 098/074 099 41202 .CRP...NONE. 76 JR (SHORT TERM) 75 JM (LONG TERM) tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 948 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2003 WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO UPDATE WINDS...TEMPERATURES... AND PRECIPITATION. RUC IS HANDLING WINDS WELL THIS MORNING...AND WILL UPDATE GRIDS WITH IT. IT IS KEEPING DOWNSLOPE WINDS GOING THROUGH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE MORE THAN NEW 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. WILL BE RAISING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 IN THE WESTERN HALF BECAUSE OF THIS. HAVE HAD PERSISTANT AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND TOWERING CUMULUS ALL MORNING. HAVE EVEN HAD A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ALREADY. LAPS IS ALREADY SHOWING THE AIR MASS BECOMING PRETTY UNSTABLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY CORRESPONDING TO DECENT THETA E AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ALSO HAVE A 700 MB TROUGH AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL. RUC/ETA/ETA KAIN-FRITSCH SHOWS A VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH 700 MB DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF KANSAS STATELINE THIS AFTERNOON. NO CAP IS ALSO SHOWN. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE ONE LACKING FACTOR OUT OF ALL THE PARAMETERS. ETA KAIN-FRITSCH DOES DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS. EVERY OTHER MODEL HAS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND MODELS AGREEING ON THE POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AM GOING TO RAISE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST FOR TODAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE... AND WILL ADDRESS THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. .GLD...NONE. $$ BULLER ks SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE/300MB JET AXIS JUST CLEARING EAST OF THE STATE...WITH WEAKER VORT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM JAMES BAY TO MINNESOTA. VIS/IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH NEXT BATCH OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE 850-500MB QVECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE ENERGY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER ARE LOCATED IN A WEAK 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW WEAK ECHOES APPARENT ON GRB RADAR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE A VERY FAST PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE AS MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOW NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WEAK LIFT/UPPER DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF +60KT 500MB JET MAX NEAR LAKE HURON. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR 78/51 YIELDS UP TO 300 J/KG CAPE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 50/LOWER 50S...WITH STATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN INTO THE MID 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z RUC/ETA TRY TO MIX OUT A LOT OF THIS SURFACE MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA UNDER DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. 12Z DTX SOUNDING HAS A FEW MINOR SPEED BUMPS WITH MAIN CAP JUST ABOVE 500MB...WITH -20C ISOTHERM INTERSECTING THE PROFILE ABOVE IT NEAR 400MB. UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATE 500MB THERMAL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM FROM US...WITH SOME DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THE UPDATE. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CAP HOLDS A BIT LONGER...BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSOLATION AND WEAK LIFT. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED AT THIS POINT. WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN WORDING FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER AND TO TWEAK WINDS WHICH HAVE BACKED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT A MODERATE CLIP. BRAVENDER FULL MORNING DISCUSSION... WELL DEFINED TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 100KT 300MB JET RACING NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE. DEEP MOISTURE WAS SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST PER H2O VAPOR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE...NOT HANDLED WELL IN THE MODELS...WAS OVER WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS (LIGHTNING DATA PLOT). THIS COINCIDED WITH A SECONDARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL BE OUR FIRST FORECAST CONCERN...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION EVENT FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. TODAY... AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF WAS INITIALIZED BETTER BY THE ETA...AS THE GFS DOES DEVELOP CONVECTIVE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK BY 18Z...WHICH BRINGS THIS FEATURE BETWEEN M59/I69 LATE IN THE DAY. COMPARED TO 12/18Z PREVIOUS RUNS...CAPES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH SFC BASED LI/S NEAR 0C. THE MOST "UNSTABLE" CONDITIONS ARE NORTH OF M59 BUT A CLOSER LOOK AR BUFKIT PROFILES AND POINT DERIVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP AROUND 650MBS WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW THE PARCEL TO CLIMB FURTHER. HOWEVER...WE ARE BIT CONCERNED WITH UPSTREAM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED AND WE WILL ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF M59. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT OF SUNSHINE. TRAJECTORY FORECASTS ORIGINATE FROM EASTERN IOWA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR 75F WHERE DIURNAL CU DID DEVELOP. SINCE UPSTREAM CLOUD DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 12Z...WE WILL CUT BACK A COUPLE DEGREES IN OUR CURRENT GRIDS. TONIGHT... THIS FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AS WAA PATTERN AND MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO INHIBIT FURTHER PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT FROM CLEARING THE STATE. THE GFS...WITH ITS CONVECTIVE OMEGA BULLET...RIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHES THE STATE BETWEEN 06-12Z. WHILE A COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E AND LLJ...THE ETA APPEARS TO BE MUCH BETTER REPRESENTATION WHICH ALLOWS THE JET TO SLOWLY EVOLVE THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. IN TURN...THIS FRONT BECOMES A WARM FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH CLOSE TO SUNRISE. CURRENT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BEST FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SATURDAY... THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS...DEPENDANT ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB. CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB (PER ETA) AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH EHI/S OVER 1 AND HELICITIES BETWEEN 150/250 M2/S2 FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL HIGHLY BE DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER DOES IMPACT THE REGION FOR THESE CAPES TO BE REALIZED. SINCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR FAVORABLE WITH 300MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS FOCUSING OVER THE CWA...WE WILL BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF M59 IN THE GRIDS. SATURDAY NIGHT... FROPA OCCURS OVERNIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL REMOVED FROM THE SFC FRONT AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH INTO ONTARIO. WITH LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT HIGHER AS SUGGESTED IN THE LATEST MOS VALUES. GIVEN CONTINUITY...WE WILL RAISE OUR GRIDS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. SUNDAY... WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD POOL TO OUR NORTH...IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO REMOVE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE WASH OUT...WE WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE. HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THOSE GRIDS. .DTX...NONE. $$ BGM EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 940 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003 TEMPS ARE WARMING ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EDGE FARTHER EAST WHILE LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO INCERASE AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATEST RUC STILL INDICATING INCREASED MID LVL OMEGA BY EARLY EVENING AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CHANCE CONVECTION EVERYWHERE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH TEMPS ON SCHEDULE WILL PLAN NO UPDATES TO ZONE PACKAGE BUT WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. MARINE: AS THE BENIGNESS OF IT ALL CONTINUES ALONG THE 0-20NM CWF BEACH AND BOATING CWF PATHWAY...ONE COULD JUST SAY "DITTO." EXTENDED RIDGE OF THE BIGGER WESTERN ATLANTIC 1029MB BERMUDA HIGH PICTURE WILL SLOWLY RECEDE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE TODAY AS SOMEWHAT ANEMIC COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART STAY IN SOUTHWEST MODE AT 15-20 KTS TODAY THEN LIGHTEN UP INTO 5-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES TO A HALT AND FIZZLES OVER CWA. SW P-GRAD TO TIGHTEN BACK UP INTO 15-20 KT RANGE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AS RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND FRISKY 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET ADD'S SOME FLAVOR TO THE MIX. UNLESS SOMETHING ELSE COMES ALONG TO SHAKE UP THE "GOOD BOATING" PATTERN...SOUND WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE AND SEAS ALONG BOTH LEGS SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR 2-4 FT MANTRA. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE WON'T BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME TO YOUR FRIENDS IN HAWAII ABOUT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE NC/VA BORDER DOOR FROM THE NW HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN GRINDING TO A HALT AS IT REACHES COASTAL DESTINATIONS. AS FOR BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW...STILL LOT'S OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IT MAY GO AND HOW INTENSE (IF ANY) IT MAY OR MAY NOT GET. HPC/TPC/SURROUNDING GULF COAST OFFICES CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS FEATURE. "SPURIOUS" AND "CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK" ISSUES HAVE BEEN WIDELY NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRY'S TO DO SOMETHING. FOR THE TIME BEING...IN OUR PART OF THE CWF WORLD ANYWAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S WILL BE THE DOMINANT FIGURES ALONG OUR CWF FOR A WHILE LONGER. OTHERWISE "DITTO" FOR NO CHANGES TO PACKAGE. LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTH TO SURF CITY. .MHX...NONE. MLF/GC nc COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1010 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003 FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. LOWER SURFACE THETA-E NOSING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO EAST OF AUSTIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE EVIDENT. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY ACROSS THIS AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 2.15 INCHES AT CRP THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PWATS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW PROFILE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. 12Z RUC/ETA SHOW DECENT SURFACE TO 85H MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE THE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OUT WEST. VERY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE WATERS AT THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. CRP EB 090/073 091/072 093 61101 VCT EB 087/070 092/071 094 4-000 LRD EB 096/074 098/074 099 52202 .CRP...NONE. 89/TMT tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1242 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003 UPDATED...WILL UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE POPS AND INCREASE WINDS. GOOD CONVERGENCE...HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASED GRADIENT HAVE INCREASED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTER PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DISCUSSION...OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE EASTERN NA UPPER RIDGE PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION NEARLY OVR THE LAST WEEK. IN ITS STEAD...TYPICAL WRLYS ALF FEATURING SEVERAL S/WVS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. FEW CHGS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST PCKG WHICH HAD GOOD HANDLE OF WX ELEMENTS THRU PD 6. TDY AND TNGT: NOTICED THAT SPC PLACED NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WE AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THIS PTN OF THE FA...WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE COLD FRONTAL TIMING...WE HAVE TWO CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WEATHER. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ETA HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING LLVL DEWPOINT TEMPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY CAPES BY NEARLY A FACTOR OF TWO OVR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE SECOND IS THAT OUR FA IS STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH H7 TEMPS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEG C CATEGORY WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING BELOW 8 DEG C OVR THE W UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. WITH THIS SAID...FAVORABLE FACTORS DO INCLUDE WEAK LLVL FRONTOGENSIS/CNVRG AND MID LVL Q-VEC CNVGR. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RUC SOUNDING DATA IS STILL NOT AVAILABLE OUT TO 21Z...THE XPCTED CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME...BUT WE ANTICIPATE ACTUAL CAPES MORE IN LINE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE N AND W RATHER THAN 3000 J/KG FORECASTED BY THE ETA. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SVR. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ENHANCED TSTM WORDING IN THE ZFP TO ALLOW SPC TO RE-EVALUATE SVR POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA IN THEIR LATE MORNING UPDATE. WE WILL ISSUE A CONVECTIVE SPS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TSTMS ACROSS SPCLY NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE SUNNY START AND VERY WARM LLVL ATMOSPHERE...WE WENT A LITTLE ABOVE BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS TDY. SAT...CONT/D W/CHC POPS EXTREME ERN CWA FOR THE MORNING AS FRONT CLEARS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. UPPER S/WV DRIVES THRU THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...ATMOS DRIES OUT W/DECENT CAA. GUID MIGHT BE UNDER WINDS A BIT. ANYWAY...MUCH DRIER & PLEASANT WX. TEMPS AOA 80 W/AID IN DOWNSLOPE EVEN AT THE COAST. LOOKING FURTHER OUT: ANOTHER LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE N & W SUNDAY NIGHT & THEN I TRANSLATED EVERYTHING E ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT W/FROPA. HIGH PRES PROGGED BY THE LATEST MRF/GFS/GEM & EURO GUID TO MOVE OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY & REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APCHS ON FRIDAY W/THE NEXT THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA. MARINE... NO HEADLINES W/THIS PKG. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECMG W EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE AREA. AVIATION...VSBY 3-5 MILES IN HAZE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 22-02Z OVER THE NORTH...00-04Z CENTRAL AND 02-06Z ACROSS DOWNEAST. .CAR...NONE. DW me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/COVERAGE SAT INTO SUN. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF FROM HUDSON BAY TOWARD THE WRN LAKES AND A RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS AND EPAC RESULTING IN WNW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY AND THE WRN LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWV WERE EMBEDDED IN FAST FLOW WITH MAIN CLIPPER SHRTWV LURKING UPSTREAM OVER CNTRL ALTA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TO NRN LK SUPERIOR AND NE MN. A WEAK RDG WAS LOCATED FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO MN AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROF FROM WRN MANITOBA INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. 850-700 MB THERMAL TROF FROM ERN ONTARIO INTO UPR MI WHICH HAS BROUGHT EXTENSIVE FALL-LIKE STRATOCU OVER THE REGION...WAS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST. RADAR INDICATED LITTLE PCPN THOUGH WITH ONLY A HINT OF A FEW SPRINKLES. TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF SFC RDG SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLR TO PTCLDY ACRS UPR MI. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...TEMPS WILL FALL TOWARD SEASONABLY COOL GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 40F. SAT...MDLS STILL SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING EFFECTS OF INCOMING CLIPPER AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW EVEN THROUGH THE HGT AND SFC FIELDS ARE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT. THE ETA/CANADIAN DEPICT SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPR LVL DIV AND QG FORCING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID MID LVL TROF AND SWEEP A BAND OF RAIN ACRS UPR MI BTWN 15Z-03Z WHILE THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING UPR MI MAINLY DRY. SO...TIL MDL CONSENSUS IS GREATER HAVE NOT GREATLY ALTERED THE FCST...EXCEPT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE GFS BY KEEPING MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS OVER THE N AND NW 1/3 OF UPR MI WITH LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTH. GENERALLY WENT WITH ETA FOR PCPN TIMING. WHILE UPR MI SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK AND MOST OF QPF PRODUCED BY THE ETA IS NON-CONVECTIVE...HAVE RETAINED ISOLD TSRA OVER THE FAR S AND SE GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO H85 LIS. ANY LINGERING -SHRA SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY LATE EVENING. SUN...AFTER GAP IN THE PCPN EXPECT ANOTHER 700-500 MB COLD POOL AND BATCH OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SETTLE INTO UPR MI. STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 6.5 C/KM COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCING CAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. MON...WITH BUILDING HGTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LVL TROF AND SFC RDG MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LK BREEZES TO DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS TO AROUND 11C SUPPORTS GOING FCST OF MID 70S INLAND. TUE-FRI...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM WITH A RDG BUILDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT AS SHRTWV ENERGY FROM THE PAC NW AND WRN CANADA MOVES TO THE EAST. EXPECT WARMING TREND AS FCST H8 TEMPS FCST FROM NEAR 14C TUE TO 18C WED...PER GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE KEPT FCST MAX TEMPS AOA GUIDANCE VALUES. UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE GULF DUE TO MDLS DIFFERING HANDLING OF SYSTEMS FROM THE WRN GULF. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH BY WED TO SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCT/ISOLD LATE DAY CONVECTION...INCREASED CAPPING MAY LIMIT CHANCES TIL FRONT AND MID LVL SHRTWV APPROACH LATE WED NIGHT OR THU...PER UKMET/12GFS. FOR NOW...AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS RETAINED FOR WED AFTERNOON OVER THE W HLF. BEST PCPN DURING THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH FRONT. WHILE THE FRONT MAY SETTLE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF UPR MI BY LATE IN THE WEEK TO KEEP WX DRY...CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT BY DAYS 6-7 IS LIMITED. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HGTS OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES FRONT EVEN FARTHER S BY FRI WITH HI PRES DOMINATING. POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN MORE ZONAL PATTERN AND WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PCPN TO THE NORTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GFS TREND AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM 12Z UKMET SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 330 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003 THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH REGARDS TO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 12Z IS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALBERTA AND WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE EXITS ON THE H85 12Z CHART. A CONVERGENT LINE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. FORECAST...THE RUC MODEL LEAVES THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. ETA MODEL INDICATES SOME H85 WARM ADVECTION...BUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE AT MID LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE ON THE MODELS AROUND 06Z. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN IOWA DURING THROUGH MID MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. IN LATER PERIODS...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM AS UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCES THE AREA. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN OCCURS ON THURSDAY AND ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. .OMA...NONE. $$ SMITH ne