Meeting of the American Statistical Association (ASA)

Committee on Energy Statistics

with the

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

October 28 and 29, 2004

Washington, D.C.

Thursday, October 28, 2004

8:30 a.m. Open Meeting, Jay Breidt, Chair, ASA Committee on Energy Statistics

8:35 a.m. Greetings, Presentations and Remarks, Guy Caruso, Administrator, Energy Information Administration (EIA)

8:55 a.m. Updates for the Committee since the Spring 2004, Meeting, Nancy Kirkendall, Director, Statistics and Methods Group (SMG), EIA

9:10 a.m. Move to Break-Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089	Room 5E-069
Quantifying the Impact of Changes in Forms What might one do in general? Bob Rutchik, SMG, EIA, with early lessons learned from their experience on the EIA-920 ASA: Johnny Blair, Moshe Feder, Nicolas Hengartner and Randy Sitter	A Customer Evaluation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) How did it work? What were the results? Howard Bradsher-Fredrick ASA: Jay Breidt, Mark Burton, Barb Forsyth, Neha Khanna, Nagaraj Neerchal and Susan Sereika

10:15 a.m. Break

10:30 a.m. ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

Proposal for Analysis of Collected Data

ASA Summary by: Johnny Blair

A Customer Evaluation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

ASA Summary by: Jay Breidt

10:45 a.m. Move to Break-Out Sessions:

Break-Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089

Room 5E-069

Assessing EIA Frames: An update on EIA-wide Project Grace Sutherland, SMG Application of Dual System Estimation Principles, Howard Bradsher-Fredrick, SMG Progress on Frames Evaluations Being Conducted by the Census Bureau for EIA, Shawna Waugh, SMG Lessons Learned from EIA Project on Frames Evaluation: MECS and the Refinery Surveys, Tom Lorenz EMEU, EIA ASA: Johnny Blair, Moshe Feder, Barb Forsyth, Nicolas Hengartner and Randy Sitter

The EIA Short-Term Regional Electricity Model: Capabilities and Data Requirements Phillip Tseng, SMG, and David Costello, EMEU, EIA ASA: Jay Breidt, Mark Burton, Neha Khanna, Nagaraj Neerchal and Susan Sereika

11:55 a.m. ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

Frames: Progress on and Lessons Learned from Frames Evaluations

ASA Summary by: Barb Forsyth

The EIA Short Term Regional Electricity Model: Capabilities and Data Requirements

ASA Summary by: Mark Burton

12:10 p.m. Invitation for Public Comments, Jay Breidt, Chair, ASA

12:15 p.m. Lunch for the Committee members and invited guests, Room 1E-226

1:15 p.m. Return. Members go directly to break-out sessions

1:15 p.m. Break-Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089	Room 5E-069
Natural Gas Production, Frames, Samples and Estimation Preston McDowney, SMG, and John Wood, Reserves and Production Division, Office of Oil and Gas, EIA ASA: Johnny Blair, Moshe Feder, Barb Forsyth, Nicolas Hengartner and Randy Sitter	Methods for Assessing NEMS Solution Data for Interpretive and Diagnostic Purposes George Lady, EIA Contractor ASA: Jay Breidt, Mark Burton, Neha Khanna, Nagaraj Neerchal and Susan Sereika

2:25 p.m. ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

Natural Gas Production, Frames, Samples and Estimation

ASA Summary by: Randy Sitter

Methods for Assessing NEMS Solution Data for Interpretive and Diagnostic Purposes

ASA Summary by: Neha Khanna

2:40 p.m. Introduction to Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART) Program Evaluation (including time for questions) Nancy Kirkendall, SMG

2:55 p.m. Break

3:10 p.m. Move to Break-Out Sessions

Room 8E-089	Room 5E-069
External Evaluations of Survey Programs, Brenda Cox, Contractor to SMG, EIA ASA: Johnny Blair, Moshe Feder, Barb Forsyth, Nicolas Hengartner and Randy Sitter	External Evaluations of Forecasting and Models Douglas Hale, SMG, EIA ASA: Jay Breidt, Mark Burton, Neha Khanna, Nagaraj Neerchal and Susan Sereika

4:20 p.m. ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

External Evaluations of Survey Programs

ASA Summary by: Nicolas Hengartner

External Evaluations of Forecasting and Models

ASA Summary by: Susan Sereika

4:35 p.m. How the ASA Energy Committee Might Help in Program Evaluation under PART? Moderator: Nancy Kirkendall, SMG

5:05 p.m. Invitation for Public Comments

5:10 p.m. Adjourn the Thursday meeting, Jay Breidt, ASA Chair

Friday, October 29, 2004

8:30 a.m. Open Meeting, Jay Breidt, ASA Chair

8:40 a.m. Data Analysis on the EIA-826/906 Joe Sedransk, lead, and Nancy Kirkendall, SMG, EIA

9:20 a.m. Move to Break-Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089	Room 5E-069
Post-Stratification Methodology for the 2002 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) Rick Hough, MECS Survey Manager, and Stacey Cole, Census Bureau ASA: Johnny Blair, Moshe Feder, Barb Forsyth, Nicolas Hengartner and Randy Sitter	Time Series Edits for the Electric Power EIA-906 Tom Broene, SMG, EIA ASA: Jay Breidt, Mark Burton, Neha Khanna, Nagaraj Neerchal and Susan Sereika

10:30 a.m. ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

Post-Stratification Methodology for the 2002 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS)

ASA Summary by: Moshe Feder

Time Series Edits for the Electric Power EIA-906

ASA Summary by: Nagaraj Neerchal

10:45 a.m. Break

11:00 a.m. If you were King, Howard Gruenspecht, Discussion Leader

If EIA’s budget really looked grim . . . .

11:45 a.m. Committee Suggestions for the spring 2005 meeting, and recommendations for future Committee membership in statistical and analytical/modeling areas

12:10 p.m. Invitation for Public Comments

12:15 p.m. Adjourn the ASA fall meeting with EIA, Jay Breidt, ASA Committee Chair