AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 930 AM PST SAT JAN 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... COLD UPPER TROF JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO LIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. MAIN FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN OTHER THAN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON (H5 TEMPS -25C TO -30C) AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. ON TOP OF THAT... MANY CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THE RUC AND NAM POINT TOWARD THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST TONIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IS BRINGING LOCAL WIND GUST NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND TRRN OBSCURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. EXPECT GRADUAL CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS BEHIND COLD FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 20Z FOR THE MOST AREAS. BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL VFR FROM LINGERING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. RCH && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM PST SATURDAY. && $$ ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 926 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES IN THE SWRN HALF BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. NERN PORTIONS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. 12Z NAM/RUC ALSO KEEP SFC WINDS SELY WHICH TYPICALLY PRECLUDES TOO SIGNIFICANT OF A WARM UP. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 915 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT)... UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING...DECREASE WINDS AS RIDGE MOVES CLOSER. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH SOME AC UPSTREAM MAKING INTO OUR FA OVERNIGHT...TIL THEN CLEAR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS: .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... LOW STRATO-CU BLANKETED THE REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO WRAP-AROUND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. RUC 850MB HIGHER DEWPOINTS CORRESPOND VERY WELL TO THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ERODING FROM THE BACK. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY AS WELL...BUT WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND THE MSLP GRADIENT WEAKENS. SHOULD SEE NEAR CALM WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS OF KENTUCKY. WITH GOOD ADIABATIC COOLING...ANY LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION FROM 850MB MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY THIN FOG OVER FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS REALLY KICK OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY 12Z...SO DID NOT INSERT INTO ZONES OR GRIDS. SOMETHING TO ANALYZE FOR EVENING FORECASTER. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE BLUEGRASS TO LOW 50S OVER W AND SW CWA...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS VALUES AND CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS. AL .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OFF WEST COAST OF NOAM AS IT HEADS EAST INTO CNTRL/ERN CONUS DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SETS IN OVER THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS IS QUICKER DEVELOPING PCPN SUN NIGHT...SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR THAT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS. SHOULD PCPN DEVELOP THAT EARLY...A PERIOD OF -SN POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE LEX VICINITY PER FCST SOUNDINGS. GFS/NAM BOTH AGREE THAT MORE APPRECIABLE PCPN WOULD OCCUR MON NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTENSIFIES...THOUGH THEN NAM DEVELOPS A SECONDARY CLOSED SFC LOW OVER GULF STATES LIFTING IT NWD INTO OHIO VALLEY TUE AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PCPN. GFS HAS THIS SECONDARY LOW...BUT IT'S WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST BY 00 UTC WED. THE NAM SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH HAS WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MON NIGHT-TUE-TUE NIGHT...BUT KEEPING THEM AT 60% UNTIL UNCERTAINTIES CAN BE IRONED OUT. THUNDER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LLJ...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND K-INDICES INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLN VERIFY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME HVY RAIN ISSUES AS WELL...AS MOISTURE INFLOW VECTORS ALIGNED REASONABLY CLOSE WITH FCST CELL MOTIONS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...INDICATING A TRAINING TYPE ENVIRONMENT. EXTRAPOLATING THE 84HR NAM SOLUTION COUPLED WITH THE GFS FCST...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF DEFORMATION/TROWAL BAND OF RASN MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED. THOUGH THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FEATURES...SO WILL GO WITH SIMPLY CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT (TUE/WED) INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED. ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE YET ANOTHER TROF SWINGING TOWARD THE CWA FROM THE SW CONUS BY FRI/SAT...PRODUCING SOME PCPN OVER THE CWA ON SAT. BASED ON THIS...WILL ADD MENTION OF LOW CHC -RA TO THE FCST FOR NEXT SAT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MAINLY WENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. MON/TUE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MILD...INTO THE 50S EVEN WITH PCPN. WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE/FRESH SOUTHERLIES MON NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP THAT MUCH. WENT WITH A MOS CONSENSUS FOR THEN...MID/UPPER 40S. CCS && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 223 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... LOW STRATO-CU BLANKETED THE REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO WRAP-AROUND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. RUC 850MB HIGHER DEWPOINTS CORRESPOND VERY WELL TO THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ERODING FROM THE BACK. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY AS WELL...BUT WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND THE MSLP GRADIENT WEAKENS. SHOULD SEE NEAR CALM WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS OF KENTUCKY. WITH GOOD ADIABATIC COOLING...ANY LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION FROM 850MB MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY THIN FOG OVER FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS REALLY KICK OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY 12Z...SO DID NOT INSERT INTO ZONES OR GRIDS. SOMETHING TO ANALYZE FOR EVENING FORECASTER. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE BLUEGRASS TO LOW 50S OVER W AND SW CWA...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS VALUES AND CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS. AL .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OFF WEST COAST OF NOAM AS IT HEADS EAST INTO CNTRL/ERN CONUS DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME. INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SETS IN OVER THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS IS QUICKER DEVELOPING PCPN SUN NIGHT...SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR THAT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS. SHOULD PCPN DEVELOP THAT EARLY...A PERIOD OF -SN POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE LEX VICINITY PER FCST SOUNDINGS. GFS/NAM BOTH AGREE THAT MORE APPRECIABLE PCPN WOULD OCCUR MON NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTENSIFIES...THOUGH THEN NAM DEVELOPS A SECONDARY CLOSED SFC LOW OVER GULF STATES LIFTING IT NWD INTO OHIO VALLEY TUE AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PCPN. GFS HAS THIS SECONDARY LOW...BUT IT'S WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST BY 00 UTC WED. THE NAM SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH HAS WIDESPREAD QPF OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MON NIGHT-TUE-TUE NIGHT...BUT KEEPING THEM AT 60% UNTIL UNCERTAINTIES CAN BE IRONED OUT. THUNDER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LLJ...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND K-INDICES INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLN VERIFY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME HVY RAIN ISSUES AS WELL...AS MOISTURE INFLOW VECTORS ALIGNED REASONABLY CLOSE WITH FCST CELL MOTIONS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...INDICATING A TRAINING TYPE ENVIRONMENT. EXTRAPOLATING THE 84HR NAM SOLUTION COUPLED WITH THE GFS FCST...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF DEFORMATION/TROWAL BAND OF RASN MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED. THOUGH THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FEATURES...SO WILL GO WITH SIMPLY CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT (TUE/WED) INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED. ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE YET ANOTHER TROF SWINGING TOWARD THE CWA FROM THE SW CONUS BY FRI/SAT...PRODUCING SOME PCPN OVER THE CWA ON SAT. BASED ON THIS...WILL ADD MENTION OF LOW CHC -RA TO THE FCST FOR NEXT SAT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MAINLY WENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. MON/TUE AHEAD OF THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MILD...INTO THE 50S EVEN WITH PCPN. WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE/FRESH SOUTHERLIES MON NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP THAT MUCH. WENT WITH A MOS CONSENSUS FOR THEN...MID/UPPER 40S. CCS && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1104 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 .UPDATE... MORNING GRID/TABULAR/TEXT FORECAST UPDATED JUST COMPLETED FOR WIND/CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING ...VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH AMPLITUDE/MERIDIONAL/TROUGH ALONG A LINE FROM ERN NY TO SERN FL LINE AT 12Z SAT. VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING REMNANTS OF ANTECEDENT SNOW COVER LEFT OVER FROM UPPER LOW THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO PREVIOUSLY PROGGED HIGHS OVER SERN MO...WHERE DIMINISHING WINDS... GREATEST INSOLATION AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST A 15-18 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE. THE INTERESTING POINT WILL BE HOW MUCH THE SNOW COVER WILL TEMPER HIGHS OVER SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY TODAY. I MAY NOT HAVE DONE THE BEST JOB DEPICTING THE COLDER AIR IN THIS AREA...BUT TRIED TO TREND TO AT LEAST A 1-2 DEGREE LOWER MAX TEMPERATURE DOWNWIND FROM MAIN SNOW COVER...WHICH SHOULD MELT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 40KM GFS AND GFS MOS SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO BLEND WINDS WITH CURRENT LAPS DATA. MINOR ADJUSTEMENTS/LOWERING/ OF DEWPOINTS MADE THIS AFTERNOON ALSO...JUST 1-2 DEGREES OVERALL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 225 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006) DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE PRECIPITATION THE LAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS A NICE H50 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE CWA. INITAL PROBLEM THIS MORNING WILL BE WHEN TO CLEAR OUT LOW CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE GFS 925 MB RH DOES NOT CLEAR OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 00Z SUN...WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CLOUD SITUATION AT 06Z. EVEN THE RUC SHOWS A SLOW TREND TO THE CLEARING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL WAIT UNTIL PRESS TIME TO DECIDE ON WHAT TO DO...BUT WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD THE RUC/GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH VERY FAR TODAY (ESPECIALLY UNDER THE CLOUDS)...AS H850 TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN THE EAST...AND ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REALLY BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PAVE THE WAY FOR LOTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP VERY WELL ON THE COOL AIR AT 850MB AT 00Z...SO WILL TREND TOWARD COOLEST MOS NUMBERS AND POSSIBLY BELOW. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NEARLY BE OVERHEAD...WITH ANOTHER AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUIET DAY. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW H850 WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE H850 TEMPS TO CLIMB. SO WE SHOULD SEE A MUCH WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE SFC LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER KANSAS...AND THE GFS SHOWS SOME WAA PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A HEALTHY 40-50KT H850 JET. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH TOWARD THE REGION...AND KEEPS US DRY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. IT ISN/T UNTIL 12Z MONDAY WHEN THE NAM ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME HIGHER SFC DEWPTS INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS HAS DEWS WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...(AND EVEN UPPER 40S IN THE WEST) AT THAT TIME. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE QUAD CITIES AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND SHOWS THE SFC LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AT THAT TIME. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MINOR WARM SECTOR PRECIP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THOUGH...BUT IT COULD END UP BEING A PARTLY CLOUDY AND BENIGN DAY...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT HEADS EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO PEAK ON MONDAY...SO THAT SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP SOME. HOWEVER...OUR BIG RAINMAKER STILL LOOMS TO THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SFC LOW IN MEXICO/SOUTH TEXAS...BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST SFC LOW PUSHES ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH THE GFS STILL MAINTAINING A SLOWER MOVEMENT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE EARLIER RUN (12Z) OF THE ECMWF. SO WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST NO THUNDER THREAT...SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE IT AT THIS TIME. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS SHOWS THE SOUTH TEXAS LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO ALABAMA...AND PHASING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ON TUESDAY...ESP IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS AS THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOWFALL THOUGH...AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES INITIALLY STAY ABOVE THE SNOW THRESHOLD IN THE EAST. HOWEVER...IN THE WEST...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS CHANGES HOWEVER AFTER 00Z WED...AS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING THE ENTIRE AREA SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS. DON/T WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING OR AREAS OF BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN JUST YET...GIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. WHAT WE HAVE GOING DEFINTIELY LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...A STEADY INCREASE IN POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS THE BEST FORECAST TO GO WITH...UNTIL WE CAN NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS. NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ CW/SMITH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1138 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW. WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ENTIRE CWA STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT LOOKS FINE. WINDS ARE KINDA SLOW TO INCREASE THUS FAR...BUT WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HIGHEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT PER MODEL DATA. WILL HAVE TO PONDER WHETHER GUSTS CAN REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THAT WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ANOTHER THOUGHT FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL TO EXTEND THE WIND HEADLINE PAST ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 7 AM. BUFKIT SHOWS ADVISORY CALIBER SPEEDS PERSISTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN 5 ALSO LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT OUR POPS/WX DO NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD TO ADJUST P-TYPE (RAIN/SNOW LINE) AND HAVE UPDATED SECOND PERIOD TO EXPAND POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...P-TYPE WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR THE FROZEN STATE. AM ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND WESTERN MARYLAND AND HAVE EVEN INCLUDED THE LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION WORDING AS THE RUC AND GFS HINT. && .AVIATION... VSBYS/CIGS GENERALLY IN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .MARINE... NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES (THE SCA/GLW/SCA SANDWICH). SCA CONDITIONS NOT MET YET...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GUSTS REACHING GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF SUNDAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A DRY SLOT WAS PUNCHING NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A 140-160KT JET DIVING SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 993MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE EAST OF DETROIT. A 994MB TRIPLE POINT CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED SOUTHWEST FROM THE PARENT CYCLONE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH THE LINE ECHO WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF DAMAGE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WRAPPING UP SHORTLY. ANTICIPATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THINK THEY WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. FIRST CHAPTER OF THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...GFS/NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-45KTS OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER...AS SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. FINALLY...HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN 5 COUNTIES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. REMNANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED BY VERY STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. COMBINATION OF PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ERODE MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...YIELDING A SUNNY (YET WINDY) SUNDAY. AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z TO MVFR WITH CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO AROUND 3KFT THIS AFTN. HWVR...WINDS WILL BECOME A SIG ISSUE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST BY LATE AFTN...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR MRB/DCA/IAD/BWI/MTN. LESSER WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT CHO. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. MARINE...HIGH END GALE WARNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOUCHED 50KTS AT SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE WATER FOR AN HOUR OR TOO...HESITATE TO UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING UNTIL THE EVENT UNFOLDS (IT WOULD BE VERY MARGINAL STORM CRITERIA ANYWAYS). WATER LEVELS ARE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WAXING TO A FULL MOON. WATER LEVELS SHOULD FALL BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS BY EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. LONG TERM...NOTHING WAS ADJUSTED DUE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER EVENT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...WIND ADVISORY FOR DCZ001 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. MD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MDZ002 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. VA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAZ021 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ048-049-054 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ048>055 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...PELOQUIN PREV DISCUSSION...ROGOWSKI/JB md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 930 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE ERN TROF/ CNTRL RDG/WRN TROF UPR PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS...WITH CWA IN NW FLOW ALF BTWN CTNRL RDG AND ERN TROF. AT THE SFC...1026MB SFC HI PRES NOTED OVER NRN ONTARIO...WITH SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING SWD THRU THE CTNRL GRT LKS. LES/LK CLD OVER ECNTRL LK SUP/ERN ZNS IN THE PROCESS OF COLLAPSING AS LWR/SHARP INVRN ARND H9 AS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW/00Z GRB SDNG AND LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z APX/GRB SDNGS INVADES THE AREA. SFC DWPTS IN THE CORE OF THE COLDER/DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO JUST E OF ANJ AOB 0F. DESPITE PRESENCE OF LLVL DRYING...MID CLD ASSOCIATED WITH STRG WAD AHD OF CNTRL RDG IS CURRENTLY OVERSPRDG THE FA. SOME PTCHY -SN HAS FALLEN ACRS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVNG WHERE 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT A BIT SHARPER AND DLH 88D SHOWS RETURNS AOA 20DBZ/00Z INL SDNG SHOWS FAIRLY HI RH THRU A DEEP LYR (H85 DWPT DEPRESSION 3C). BUT ECHOES APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS DRIER LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX SDNG (H85 DWPT DEPRESSION 15C) AND PCPN SLIDES TOWARD THE WRN CWA WHERE 23Z TAMDAR SDNG FM CMX INDICATES H8 DWPT DEPRESSION OF 10C. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT REVOLVE ARND PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER/IMPACT ON LO TEMPS. 00Z RUC/NAM AND 18Z GFS SHOW CENTER OF SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO SLIDING JUST SLOWLY SE OVERNGT UNDER NW FLOW ALF TO THE W OF RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING ERN TROF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIER MID LVL RH TENDING TO DRY UP AS THE AIR MOVES INTO LINGERING DRY AIR/NW FLOW ALF. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SKY FCST HAS THESE EXPECTED TRENDS WELL IN HAND...WL LOWER GOING FCST LO TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR ECNTRL SINCE CURRENT TEMP AT ERY ALREADY DOWN TO 12F (FCST LO 10F) AND TO REFLECT VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ATTM WITH LGT WINDS UNDER SFC RDG AXIS TO PERSIST OVER THE E HALF THRU 12Z SUN. SHARPER ISENTROPIC LIFT FCST ON THE 290K SFC TNGT/HIER H7 RH OVER THE WCNTRL WL HOLD LO TEMPS UP OVER THE W...SO NO CHGS PLANNED THERE. PREFER THE 18Z GFS QPF...WHICH SHOWS SOME LGT PCPN BRUSHING THE KEWEENAW THRU 12Z. THIS PLACEMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH OBSVD HIER MSTR OVER INL...STRONGER AND LONGER DURATION ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SFC...SOME LVLL MOISTENING OVER LK SUP/UPSLOPE IN EXPECTED ESE FLOW...AND GREATER DISTANCE FM THE DRIER AIR TO THE S AND E. BUT EVEN OVER THE KEWEENAW...GRDL LLVL WSHFT TO THE ESE WL TEND TO MAINTAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR. SO WL MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. WL REMOVE MENTION OF PCPN ELSEWHERE. COORDINATED WITH APX. KC .LONG TERM... LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SE BY SUN AFTN WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY EVEN WHERE LITTLE SNOW OCCURS. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS FOR A PERIOD SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT WX OVR UPR LAKES MON AFTN. SE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF W HALF OF CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN WAY OF SHEARING WINDS AT TOP OF INVERSION SO THE DRIZZLE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE AT THIS POINT. ENOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO UPR LAKES MON AFTN FOR ONLY SNOW AND TO BRING PCPN INTO E CWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES NOT REALLY INCREASE UNTIL MON NIGHT SO SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN AN INCH. EXTENDED (MON NIGHT THROUGH SAT)...AGREEMENT STILL SHAKY WITH SFC LOW PLACEMENT AND RESULTING SNOW CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 00Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATED LK ENAHNCEMENT POSSIBLE OFF LK SUPERIOR STARTING MON NIGHT ON KEWEENAW AND SHIFTING TO N FLOW FAVORED AREAS ON TUE. PRIMARY UPR LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SFC LOW IS STILL JUST ENTERING W COAST OF CONUS SO WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS AND AMBITIOUS WITH POPS. 12Z ECMWF NOW BACK TO AN INVERTED TROUGH LOOK WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO SOUTH. THIS WAS EC SOLN FROM A COUPLE DAYS BACK. OBVIOUSLY...TRACK OF SFC LOW HAS VARIED QUITE A BIT OVR LAST FEW DAYS AND LIKELY WILL NOT GET NAILED DOWN FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS. A FARTHER NORTH LOW PRES SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE EMERGING AS CONSENSUS SO WITH FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TUE. INCREASED POPS OVR ALL AREAS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW. EVEN 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IT. ALSO WITH POSSIBILITY FOR LK EHANCEMENT NUDGED POPS HIGHER NEAR LK SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY INTO QUEBEC ON WED WITH LK EFFECT DIMINISHING. WEAKER AND MAINLY NORTHERN STREAM ORIGIN TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE THU INTO FRI SO WENT WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LGT SNOW THOSE PERIODS. COORD WITH APX. JLA && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LINGERING LES TODAY...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AND PCPN POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE. WV IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED A TROF OFF THE WEST COAST A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF FROM HUDSON BAY AND THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE SFC...NNW FLOW PREVAILED BTWN A TROF INTO THE ERN LAKES AND A RDG FROM NRN MANITOBA THROUGH MN. UPSTREAM A WARM FRONT EXTENDED INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN ALBERTA. 900-850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -12C SUPPORTED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS NRN UPR MI. RADAR INDICATED LIGHT LES HAD DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z WITH FEW DISTINCT BANDS. REFLECTIVITY TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NAM FCST SNDGS THAT INDICATE LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. IR LOOP SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN ALREADY STREAMING FROM SRN SASK/MANITOBA INTO NRN MN. TODAY...EXPECT WEAK LES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM SCT -SHSN TO FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON AS THE RDG BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA AND INVERSION HGTS LOWER FROM 4K FT TO 2K-3K FT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE GREATEST OF THESE LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BTWN MARQUETTE AND GRAND MARAIS WHICH IS FAVORED BY LONGER FETCH LENGTH AND 330-340 FLOW. OTHERWISE...AS LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES FADE OVER THE WEST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. TONIGHT INTO SUN...THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WAS PREFERRED WITH THE TIMING/POSITION THE WAA MOISTURE BAND. BOTH THE GFS/NAM QPF SEEM OVERDONE GIVEN THE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE 900-700 LYR THAT HAS TO BE OVERCOME. THE GFS SHOWS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE 290K-295K LYR A BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LAGGING 280K-285K MOISTENING. SO...LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SUN NIGHT...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES EVEN THOUGH 900-700 MB MOISTURE THINS OUT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ ALONG WITH PATCHY LIGHT SNOW. MON INTO TUE...MDLS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO AFFECTING UPR MI IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. WHILE NRN STREAM SHRTWV REMAINS MOSTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...MDLS SUGGEST THAT NRN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORTS INCREASED PCPN CHANCES WITH MAINLY SNOW BY MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE. ENOUGH MDL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN SO THAT PCPN CHANCES LEFT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. EVEN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MDL DETAILS BY DAY 3...POSSIBILITY FOR -FZDZ TUE STILL REMAINS WITH GFS SHOWING 700-500 MB DRYING OVER CNTRL/EAST UPR MI BY 18Z/TUE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 423 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 .DISCUSSION... WEEKEND WARMUP UNDER WAY AS TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND THE UPPER 30S IN WESTERN ILLINOIS. 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY PUSHED BACK UP ABOVE 0C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +4 TO +8C RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROF SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM UP NICELY...HOWEVER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW RUNS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO LESS WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...TYPICALLY OUR REALLY WARM DAYS HAVE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN SOUTHERLY. STILL...THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY MOS LOOK REASONABLE SO HAVE FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE NEXT IN OUR SERIES OF FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE CWFA ON MONDAY WITH WEATHER INCLUDING EVERYTHING BUT THE KITCHEN SINK. OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY DECREASES ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 800-600MB DELTA/THETA-E IS AT OR BELOW 0 INDICATING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...K-INDEX VALUES WILL BE UP IN THE 25-30 RANGE AND EVEN SURFACE BASED LI'S WILL RIGHT AROUND 0 ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IN MID JANUARY...THAT MORE THAN ENOUGH HINTS FOR ME TO INSERT THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. NOT REALLY SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS YET WHICH WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS TO FEED ON...BUT THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY STOUT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. UP UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. AFTER THAT THEY DIVERGE PRETTY WIDELY. GFS WRAPS THE SYSTEM UP AND SHOOTS IT OFF NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS AND COLD AIR ALOFT FLOWS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ETA DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DOWN ON THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY EVENING WHICH RIPPLES UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON TUESDAY THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS THAT DUMPS WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA AND POINTS EAST. SINCE THE WAVE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THIS STORM IS JUST COMING ON-SHORE OVER THE WEST COAST...AND WE HAVE YET TO GET GOOD DATA SAMPLING ON IT...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AT THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH A WARMUP AFTER THE MONDAY/TUESDAY STORM...THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM OUR COOL-DOWN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. CARNEY && .AVIATION... ON OR ABOUT JANUARY 15TH...WFO ST LOUIS WILL BEGIN ISSUING AN AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH EVERY SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 813 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2006 .UPDATE...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP ALL POPS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. NO RAIN/SNOW SEEN BY OBSERVATIONS OR RADAR IN ARIZONA OR SOUTHERN NEVADA. 00Z RUC AND NAM ALSO DO NOT DEPICT ANY POPS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW CHANGES TO THE TEMPS IN THE WEST AND MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER. ALSO NO CHANGES TO THE WSW HIGHLIGHTS...WILL LET MIDNIGHT CREW UPGRADE THE WATCH AS NEEDED. 49/GB .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MST SAT JAN 14 2006...ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST...SHOULD BE EXITING BY EARLY EVENING. LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS CLEARING OUT/THINNING TEMPORARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE DETAILS IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY FORECAST...BUT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING SUNDAY AND SPREADING AREAWIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES IN. EXPECT A GOOD 5 TO 15 DEGREE COOLDOWN IN THE WEST FROM HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY...WITH A COOLDOWN RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES IN THE EAST. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL STAND AS IS FOR NOW. FEEL UPPER RIO GRANDE MAY ACCUMULATE SOME SNOW BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PUT THEM IN A WATCH...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FOR AROUND 100 AM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM GETS WETTER AND COLDER FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE FASTER DEVELOPING THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. AND WITH THE BRISK NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS FORECAST BY MOS...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE COLORADO BORDER ACROSS UNION AND COLFAX COUNTIES DURING THAT TIME. WINDS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO PICK UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE CONSIDERATION OF HIGHLIGHTS TO LATER SHIFTS. WILL SPLIT GRIDS ON TUESDAY TO CLEAR OUT PCPN BY MIDDAY. MODEL TRENDS POINT TOWARDS RAPIDLY DECREASING ACTIVITY BY MIDMORNING TUESDAY. FEW AND INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO LATER PERIODS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ001-NMZ002-NMZ004-NMZ008. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ005-NMZ006-NMZ007. && $$ nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1033 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)... ONE MORE UPDATE...UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LK ONTARIO AND ONTO ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND THEN ACROSS THE CAYUGA AND SENECA LAKES...HAS PRODUCED A DECENT AREA OF SNOW. THIS NNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND BUFKIT ETA PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT TO MAINTAIN THIS SNOW. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASE POPS IN THE FINGER LAKES...AND AREAS JUST SOUTH TO LIKELY. ALSO INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN AND AROUND THIS AREA. EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OF FLUFF AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES (THOUGH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA)...AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE SURROUNDING AREA. -CEMPA ANOTHER UPDATE(0225Z)...THIS ONE TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR SERN COUNTIES AS INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SE IS HOLDING OFF DRY AIR FROM THE NW...PARTICULARLY IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. BOTH RUC/ETA12 SHOW INDICATIONS OF THIS. WENT WITH 2-4" THERE...AS SNOW COULD HOLD ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALSO...ADJUSTED WX/POPS TO REFLECT THOSE AREAS WHERE STEADY SNOW IS NO LONGER FALLING. LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY BE STARTING TO PICK UP AS WELL. SOME ELEVATED SITES REPORTING 35-45 KT GUSTS ATTM. -CEMPA FIRST UPDATE(0043Z)...JUST AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...SNOW WINDING DOWN OR ENDED IN WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT LAKE INDUCED SHSN REDEVELOP THERE SHORTLY...BUT LIGHT STUFF IN GENERAL. FOLLOWING THE RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM AS ITS PRECIP...FG...AND DEFORMATION FIELDS ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIP WELL. RUC 850 MB DEFORMATION SHIFTS EAST AS SIGNIFICANT DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. BANDS HAVE BEEN FORMING...BUT EVERY TIME ONE GETS GOING...THE DRY AIR SQUASHES IT WITHIN THE HOUR. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. AS FOR WIND ADVISORY...STRONG WINDS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE BASED ON MESONET OBS...THOUGH FEW OF THESE ARE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT 40-50 KT JUST OFF THE SFC (EVIDENCED ON PROFLIER AND TAMDAR DATA) ARE JUST NOT MIXING DOWN YET. HOWEVER WITH DEEPING SFC LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP...AND STILL COULD SEE ADV CRITERIA GUSTS MIXING DOWN. PREVIOUS FORECAST DOING OK...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT. OTHER THAN THAT...JUST SOME MINOR TIMING TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...AND SENT A REFRESHED SET OF ZONES. -CEMPA WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRG ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO THRU 12Z. HAVE AN SPS TO COVER SNOW...ICY ROAD POTENTIAL AND ALSO SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS. SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH IT WILL MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS SUNDAY. TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MIDWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. WE THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. -DJN/MJ && .LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SATURDAY)... OUR NEXT MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO EASTERN CANADA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AND MARGINALLY COLDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE. ALL IN ALL...AFTER WED...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN. -MJ && .AVIATION (15/00Z - 16/00Z)... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVRNGT AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE CST, BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST. IFR CIGS ACRS THE RGN ERLY THIS EVNG, WITH SNOW CONFINED TO ERN SITES (UCA, AVP, BGM). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN IFR LATER TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE RGN. SUSTAINED NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ON SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD AREA-WIDE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY, SPCLY AT ITH WHERE NRLY FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLDS AND PSBLY SOME FLURRIES. && .HYDROLOGY... AS ALL PRECIP IS NOW SNOW...THE HYDRO THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH ENDED. EVEN COOKS FALLS STARTING TO RECEDE AFTER CRESTING AT AROUND 9.5 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE. -MJ && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062 .PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072 && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 925 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)... ANOTHER UPDATE...THIS ONE TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR SERN COUNTIES AS INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SE IS HOLDING OFF DRY AIR FROM THE NW...PARTICULARLY IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. BOTH RUC/ETA12 SHOW INDICATIONS OF THIS. WENT WITH 2-4" THERE...AS SNOW COULD HOLD ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALSO...ADJUSTED WX/POPS TO REFLECT THOSE AREAS WHERE STEADY SNOW IS NO LONGER FALLING. LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY BE STARTING TO PICK UP AS WELL. SOME ELEVATED SITES REPORTING 35-45 KT GUSTS ATTM. -CEMPA FIRST UPDATE(0043Z)...JUST AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...SNOW WINDING DOWN OR ENDED IN WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT LAKE INDUCED SHSN REDEVELOP THERE SHORTLY...BUT LIGHT STUFF IN GENERAL. FOLLOWING THE RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM AS ITS PRECIP...FG...AND DEFORMATION FIELDS ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIP WELL. RUC 850 MB DEFORMATION SHIFTS EAST AS SIGNIFICANT DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. BANDS HAVE BEEN FORMING...BUT EVERY TIME ONE GETS GOING...THE DRY AIR SQUASHES IT WITHIN THE HOUR. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. AS FOR WIND ADVISORY...STRONG WINDS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE BASED ON MESONET OBS...THOUGH FEW OF THESE ARE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT 40-50 KT JUST OFF THE SFC (EVIDENCED ON PROFLIER AND TAMDAR DATA) ARE JUST NOT MIXING DOWN YET. HOWEVER WITH DEEPING SFC LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP...AND STILL COULD SEE ADV CRITERIA GUSTS MIXING DOWN. PREVIOUS FORECAST DOING OK...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT. OTHER THAN THAT...JUST SOME MINOR TIMING TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...AND SENT A REFRESHED SET OF ZONES. -CEMPA WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRG ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO THRU 12Z. HAVE AN SPS TO COVER SNOW...ICY ROAD POTENTIAL AND ALSO SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS. SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH IT WILL MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS SUNDAY. TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MIDWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. WE THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. -DJN/MJ && .LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SATURDAY)... OUR NEXT MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO EASTERN CANADA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AND MARGINALLY COLDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE. ALL IN ALL...AFTER WED...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN. -MJ && .AVIATION (15/00Z - 16/00Z)... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVRNGT AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE CST, BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST. IFR CIGS ACRS THE RGN ERLY THIS EVNG, WITH SNOW CONFINED TO ERN SITES (UCA, AVP, BGM). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN IFR LATER TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE RGN. SUSTAINED NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ON SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD AREA-WIDE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY, SPCLY AT ITH WHERE NRLY FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLDS AND PSBLY SOME FLURRIES. && .HYDROLOGY... AS ALL PRECIP IS NOW SNOW...THE HYDRO THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH ENDED. EVEN COOKS FALLS STARTING TO RECEDE AFTER CRESTING AT AROUND 9.5 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE. -MJ && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062 .PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072 && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 743 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)... UPDATE...JUST AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...SNOW WINDING DOWN OR ENDED IN WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCT LAKE INDUCED SHSN REDEVELOP THERE SHORTLY...BUT LIGHT STUFF IN GENERAL. FOLLOWING THE RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM AS ITS PRECIP...FG...AND DEFORMATION FIELDS ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIP WELL. RUC 850 MB DEFORMATION SHIFTS EAST AS SIGNIFICANT DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. BANDS HAVE BEEN FORMING...BUT EVERY TIME ONE GETS GOING...THE DRY AIR SQUASHES IT WITHIN THE HOUR. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. AS FOR WIND ADVISORY...STRONG WINDS HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE BASED ON MESONET OBS...THOUGH FEW OF THESE ARE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT 40-50 KT JUST OFF THE SFC (EVIDENCED ON PROFLIER AND TAMDAR DATA) ARE JUST NOT MIXING DOWN YET. HOWEVER WITH DEEPING SFC LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP...AND STILL COULD SEE ADV CRITERIA GUSTS MIXING DOWN. PREVIOUS FORECAST DOING OK...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT. OTHER THAN THAT...JUST SOME MINOR TIMING TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS...AND SENT A REFRESHED SET OF ZONES. -CEMPA WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRG ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO THRU 12Z. HAVE AN SPS TO COVER SNOW...ICY ROAD POTENTIAL AND ALSO SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS. SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH IT WILL MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS SUNDAY. TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MIDWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. WE THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. -DJN/MJ && .LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SATURDAY)... OUR NEXT MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO EASTERN CANADA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AND MARGINALLY COLDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE. ALL IN ALL...AFTER WED...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN. -MJ && .AVIATION (15/00Z - 16/00Z)... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVRNGT AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE CST, BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST. IFR CIGS ACRS THE RGN ERLY THIS EVNG, WITH SNOW CONFINED TO ERN SITES (UCA, AVP, BGM). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN IFR LATER TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE RGN. SUSTAINED NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ON SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD AREA-WIDE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY, SPCLY AT ITH WHERE NRLY FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLDS AND PSBLY SOME FLURRIES. && .HYDROLOGY... AS ALL PRECIP IS NOW SNOW...THE HYDRO THREAT IS PRETTY MUCH ENDED. EVEN COOKS FALLS STARTING TO RECEDE AFTER CRESTING AT AROUND 9.5 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE. -MJ && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062 .PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072 && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 430 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... DIFFICULT FCST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 986 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG THE SRN NJ COAST AT 21Z. THIS IS IN ALMOST PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS FCST. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACCORDING TO SFC OBS AND SAT PIX...AND CONSISTENT GFS CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED FOR THIS FCST. COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO NJ ATTM. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO ERN PA...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S. TONIGHTS FCST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES JUST TO OUR EAST. COLD AIR WILL GET WRAPPED IN FROM THE W AND NW THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY AND WINDS PICKING UP SUBSTANTIALLY. WIND ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 PM SUNDAY...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AS NW WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY EXPECTING CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURING W TO E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CHANGEOVER SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS WRN ORANGE COUNTY AROUND 00Z...SPREADING INTO THE NYC METRO BY LATE EVENING AND CHANGING OVER ACROSS SRN CT AND LI LATE TONIGHT. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN AS WELL AROUND THE TIME OF CHANGEOVER. EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RELATIVE TO THE POSN OF HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS AT THE TIME OF CHANGEOVER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...BUT WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ICING UP OF ROADS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS...VISIBILITIES WILL BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AM. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FROM ANY WINTER ADVISORIES AND CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR NOW...AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH AND AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE VSBY CRITERIA FOR SNOW/BLSN ADV BEING MET. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS CAA KICKS IN. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG CAA CONTINUES. SNOW SHOULD END FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUN AM AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPS FOR SUN AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY)... VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIMINISH. EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE LESSENING...RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDER AREAS. LOOKING FOR UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN NYC METRO. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN SOME AREAS SUN NIGHT. MON SHOULD BE QUIET AS THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH MAX TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE 30S. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... STUCK WITH HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUE PM. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT AND WED. LOOKS LIKE NO PTYPE PROBLEMS WITH THIS EVENT AS MILD SW FLOW KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN FAR NW SXNS WED NIGHT AS THE PRECIP ENDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN THU AND FRI...AND REMAINS OFFSHORE SAT. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS HAVING RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THUS...NO LONGER EXPECTING URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. THE NAUGATUCK RIVER AT WATERBURY ROSE STEADILY THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 11 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RAINS HAVING LESSENED...IT SHOULD HOLD THEN FALL TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP BEYOND THIS EVENING WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO RUNOFF. && .AVIATION... TODAY IS CLEARLY ONE OF THE MORE DIFFICULT DAYS AT THE AVIATION DESK. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO VARY BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR...WITH THE VSBYS BEHAVING SIMILARLY. LATEST ETA12...RUC AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORT A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE...BUT THEN DETERIORATE AROUND 05Z TO 07Z AS A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SNOW BAND TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCOMPANIED WITH A VERY STRONG NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z SUN THOUGH AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. && .MARINE... WINDS DROPPED TO 10-15 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 7 FT SEAS AS CENTER OF LOW PASSES OVER AREA WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE WARNING... WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A STORM WARNING...AS WINDS RANGE FROM 25-30G35-45KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WESTERN TO EASTERN WATERS ON MON. FLAGS COME DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY MON...ENDING MON NIGHT ON OCEAN WATERS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON WED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND ADVISORY FOR CTZ005>012 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY. NJ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NJZ002>006-011 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY. NY...WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ067>081 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ330-335-355 FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ330-335-350-353-355 UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ338 FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ350-353 FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY. && $$ PUBLIC...CNJ AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...DW MARINE...MPS ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 400 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)... TONIGHT...DVLPG DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHEILD WAS OVR MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND NRN PA AS SFC LO AND ASSCTD MID-LVL CYCLONE SHIFT TO THE COAST. LL NW FLO OF MUCH COLDER AIR WAS MOVG INTO NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS WITH A RAPID CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT OCNLY MODERATE SNOWFALL. GFS AND RUC BOTH SHOWG A BAND OF FGEN FORCING AT 700 MB AND COLDER MID-LVL/S TEMPS STAYING MAINLY N AND W OF A COOPERSTOWN TO ELM LINE THRU 06Z. THIS WAS ASSCTD WITH MORE STEADY SNOWFALL. COLDER MID-LVL/S TEMPS WERE TRANSLATING TO BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IN WRN NY WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NRN 1/2 OF NY THIS EVE. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVBL WITH THE ASSCTD FGEN FRCG IN NC NY AS RADAR AND SATL IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING NRTHWRD INTO NC NY. THUS WILL HV 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ONEIDA/MADISON CO/S. REST OF UPSTATE NY AND NRN PA...1-3 INCHES WITH 3 INCHES MAINLY AT HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE AVP AREA UP TO AN INCH...WITH 2 INCHES PSBL OVER THE POCONOS. AFTER THE DEFORMATION BAND LIFTS NE BY 6Z...RAPIDLY CLRG WILL TAKE PLACE AS SIGNFCT LL DRYING AND SUSBC BEGIN. INV CRASHES DOWN TO BLO 850 MB. SOME RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER THE INV IN THE FINGER LAKES REGIONS TO BGM/ELM AREA. SEE SCT SW-/SW-- AS SOME LAKE ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKES MOISTURE IS FACTORED IN. WILL KEEP WIND ADVY UP FOR MUCH OF NE PA TO THE WRN CATSKILLS SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH GIVEN STRG PRESSURE GRADIENT. IT WILL TAKE MUCH LONGER FOR THE DENSER COLD AIR TO WORK SE OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS...YET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONT TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AND THE COASTAL LOW TAKES OFF. THIS IS RECIPE FOR STRGR MTN WINDS. ADVY WILL BE UP UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRG ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO THRU 12Z. HAVE AN SPS TO COVER SNOW...ICY ROAD POTENTIAL AND ALSO SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS. SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH IT WILL MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS SUNDAY. TUESDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MIDWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. WE THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. -DJN/MJ && .LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SATURDAY)... OUR NEXT MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS A WELL DEVELOPED STORM LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO EASTERN CANADA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AND MARGINALLY COLDER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES COULD BRING SOME MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NY STATE. ALL IN ALL...AFTER WED...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN. -MJ && .AVIATION (14/18Z - 15/18Z)... PRECIPITATION CONTS TO FALL IN THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE...AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR WAS RUSHING ACRS THE CWA ATTM. THIS WILL TURN ANY LEFT OVER RAIN TO SNOW. AS OF 19Z THE RAIN SNOW LINE WAS MAINLY WEST OF UCA-BGM-IPT. CIGS/VSBYS IN THE SNOW WERE RUNNING IFR...IN THE RAIN AREA THEY WERE GENERALLY IFR WITH MORE VARIABILITY. ALSO NW WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS EXPECTED IN NE PA...AT AVP. WIND GUSTS TONIGHT ACRS C NY TAF SITES AT OR A LITTLE ABV 30 KTS. AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME VFR ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BGM...ITH AND SYR. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN THRU 12Z IN LIGHT SN SHWRS IN THESE AREAS. REST OF TAFS VFR LATE EVENING ON. - NICOSIA && .HYDROLOGY... WATER LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH FLOOD STAGE AT COOKS FALLS ON THE DELAWARE RIVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO FURTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...AS COLDER RUSHES IN AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTS DOWN THE RUNOFF. OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLE. -MJ && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062 .PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072 && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 110 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)... UPDATE 3...UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO FRESHEN UP TEMPS AND WX. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW RAPIDLY OCCURRING ACRS FINGER LAKES TO WRN MOHAWK VLLY. ADJUSTING SNOW AMNTS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACRS NC NY....WITH 1-3 INCHES ACRS THE REST OF C NY AND FAR NRN PA. GFS AND RUC BOTH SHW STRGEST 700 MB FGEN SLIDES NE FM WRN NY TO NC NY AND NE NY TONIGHT. KBGM RADAR IMAGERYS HAS A RATHER "FRACTURED" LOOK...WITH KBUF 88D HVG MORE "SMOOTH" ECHOES INDICATIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. 700 MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BTWN -10C TO -12C IN WRN AND NRN NY THRU THIS EVE WITH BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH MORE COINCIDENT WITH THE FGEN FORCING. FARTHER S AND E...SEE MORE "GRAINY" TYPE OF SNOW AS CLOUDS WERE DEFINITELY GLACIATING...BUT MAX OMEGA IS LOWER THAN THE -10C TEMP RANGE IN MUCH OF THE BGM CWA. ALSO TRANSITION FM RAIN TO SNOW WILL CUT ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMNTS...ESP IN NE PA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOW 50S IN THE POCONOS. WILL UPDATE SPS TO FRESHEN UP WORDING AS WELL. UPDATE 2...WILL DROP FFA FOR CATSKILLS AND OTSEGO CO. NO FLOOD PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVY FOR POCONOS AND SULLIVAN CO FOR STARTERS. MET AND MAV GUIDC STRGLY SUPPORTS ADVY CRITERIA WINDS IN THESE AREAS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR MORE THAN 6 HRS AT MSV OVER 25 KTS. STRGR GRADIENT WILL BE ACR NE PA AND SERN NY AS LO WINDS UP ON THE COAST. COLDER AND MUCH DENSER AIR WILL RUSH IN VERY QUICKLY INTO CNTRL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA N OF THE HIGHER MTNS. THIS WILL IN EFFECT SLOW DOWN THE WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRG PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN NE PA...A LAG IN THE COLDER AIR THIS EVE WILL LEAD TO STRGR WINDS...ESP OVR THE POCONOS WHERE FARTHER S AND E...THERE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL TAKE A LOT LONGER TO REACH. WILL HV GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THESE AREAS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE SULLIVAN CO. REST OF ZONES HAVE PEAK GUSTS FORECAST BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM FAR NRN PA TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND SRN TUG. HIGHEST AMNTS IN NC NY. UPDATE 1...UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO DROP FFA FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NY AND ALL OF NE PA. KEPT FFA GOING IN THE CATSKILLS AND SULLIVAN CO WHERE STEADY RAIN WAS STILL FALLING AS THERE CUD BE SOME MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS YET. NW WINDS WERE RAPIDLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACRS THE WRN 1/2 OF NY AND PA. A FAIRLY DEEP SFC LO WAS TRACKING ACRS NE PA ATTM. THIS LO WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS SPREADING ACRS THE REST OF CWA AS A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS MOVS ACRS THE REST OF NE PA AND C NY. A MUCH COLDER SHOT OF AIR WAS INVADING FAR WRN NY ATTM AND TIME THIS SHARPER DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW TO ELM-SYR BY 17-18Z....AND UCA-BGM-IPT BY 19Z...AVP BY 20-21Z AND MSV BY 21-22Z. SEE UP TO AN INCH IN C NY W OF I-81 BY 00Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVY FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO FAR CURRENT SNOW FCSTS ARE GOING FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN UPSTATE NY WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NE PA. WILL READDRESS WIND AND SNOW POTENTIAL WITH ANOTHR UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING. - NICOSIA PREVIOUS SHORT TERM... CONCENTRATED MAINLY ON THE STORM AT HAND FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL LET MUCH OF THE REST RIDE FOR NOW. EASTERN TROF IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BECOME NEG TILTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES, BUT GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH CURRENT WX...PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL PA AND PRECIP SHIELD AND IS THEREFORE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM. ATLANTIC INFLOW BRINING BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NORTHWARD THRU EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA AND PA. MANY THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING QPF, WINDS AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RADAR TRENDS SHOW AND MODELS AGREE THAT AFTER THIS BATCH OF RAIN GOES THRU EARLY THIS MORNING, WE WILL BE DRY SLOTTED FOR A WHILE BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN THIS AFTN/EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING THRU CENTRAL PA WILL MOVE QUICKLY THRU OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITHOUT SETTING UP IN PLACE, AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO LESS RAINFALL FOR EASTERN AREAS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND LESS OF A PROBLEM FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS. HOWEVER, WITH THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MOVING THRU, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL PSBLE WITH THE THREAT OF PROBLEMS ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS, THUS WILL BE LETTING THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE WHERE IT STANDS GIVEN SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. PRECIP CHANGES OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AND TAPERS OFF TONIGHT. NAM SHOWS DEFORMATION SNOW DRYING UP OVER THE AREA WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE HEAVY HANDED, BUT NOT MUCH. ATTM, WILL NOT GO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS LATER TODAY, PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH CAA AND GFS PRESSURE RISES OF 8-9 MB. THIS WOULD BRING US CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW, OUR INCLINATION IS TO ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THE RAPID CHANGE IN WEATHER WITH WIND, SOME SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS ON THE WAY AND HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY. && .EXTENDED FORECAST (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)... ANOTHER PRONOUNCED WARM-UP DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN PART OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... SO THE BEST CHC OF RAIN NEXT WEEKS LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS COULD END AS SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. -MSE && .AVIATION (14/06Z - 15/06Z)... HIGHLY VRBL CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WITH TERMINALS IN AND OUT OF SHOWERS. GENERAL TENDENCY WILL BE FOR PREDOMINANT MVFR WITH SPORADIC IFR ESPLY HIER ELEV BGM. MAY EVEN SEE WINDOWS OF VFR AS DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH UPR JET MOVES OVHD. WIND IS THE BIG STORY AFT 18Z. FROPA WILL BRING QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA DVLPG OVER AREA BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL BRING AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS ABV 20 KTS WITH GUSTS ABV 30 KTS WELL INTO TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD SETTLE INTO TYPICAL COLD AIR MVFR LEVELS WITH A BRIEF PD OF -SN AND IFR VSBYS BEHIND FROPA. -JAB && .HYDROLOGY... RAIN EVENT CHANGING COURSE ON US AS DRY SLOT NOW FCST TO MOVE THRU HEART OF HSA. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAIN AMOUNTS IN FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND ALLEVIATE THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RISES AND MINOR FLOODING IN THE HEADWATERS OF SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN. GENERALLY ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP EXPECTED IN THE UPR SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE BASINS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOME OF THAT WILL GO TO SNOW. FINGER LAKES BASINS ALSO SHOULD WITHSTAND THE HEAVIER RAIN FALLING UP THERE...AS THERE IS MUCH LESS SNOWMELT. STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT COULD STILL BRING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THIS MORNING TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SMALLER STREAM/CREEK PROBLEMS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FOR THOSE REASONS ONLY. -JAB && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NYZ062 .PA...WIND ADVY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072 && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 755 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 .CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW... 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH FAIRLY STIFF SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EVIDENT ACROSS CWFA. IN ADDITION RESPECTABLE PRESSURE FALLS/SFC-850MB WAA NOTED IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH FROM RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. .SHORT TERM... PER 00Z RUC WEAK SHORTWAVE ATTM VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED WAA COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM VORTICITY MAXIMA AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SUPPORTS FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EAST INTO BAUDETTE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT BIG MERCURY DROP OVERNIGHT AS WAA THERMAL PROFILE PERSISTS. && .AVIATION...LATEST EXAMINATION OF OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK WOULD SUGGEST ANY PCPN AND MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A BEMIDJI TO GRAFTON LINE THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GFK/BJI/FAR TAF SITES SEEING VFR CONDITIONS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ BERG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1247 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... NW SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WERE GUSTING OVER/NEAR 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT PROFILES...THE SC DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SCATTERING OUT 00Z TO 03Z AS WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS. MID CLOUDS WORK BACK IN 06Z TO 09Z WEST TO EAST AS WINDS DECREASE AND THEN TURN SE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1110 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1004 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... LOW CLOUDS WERE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE HAS CUTOFF IN THE NW FLOW...SO OTHER THAN SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND POPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 615 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER. FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS. TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1110 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1004 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... LOW CLOUDS WERE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE HAS CUTOFF IN THE NW FLOW...SO OTHER THAN SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND POPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 615 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER. FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS. TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1004 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... LOW CLOUDS WERE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE HAS CUTOFF IN THE NW FLOW...SO OTHER THAN SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND POPS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 615 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER. FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS. TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 615 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW SNOW EAST OF ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT CMH AND LCK AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THOSE TAFS BY 730AM. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MVFR AND BECOME VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC WIND WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING OFF SOME THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVERCAST CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BROKEN. TONIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE. HAYDU && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 531 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER. FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS. TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 531 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON RADAR. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. KILN-88D SHOWING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER THOUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. LATEST RUC INDICATES DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING ACROSS CWA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO CLEAN UP AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATE EVENING. HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. RLG LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER. FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS. TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. FRANKS AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN ILN AND CMH AND MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS GENERATING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS HAVE CONTINUED A WEAKENING TREND OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER INDIANA. THE THREE HOURS TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BEFORE DAYBREAK AND END BY 18Z IN THE EASTERN MOST TAF SITES. WHILE CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD REACHING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER TO TONIGHT THEN SUGGESTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. HAYDU && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 .UPDATE...AFTER A CAREFUL EXAMINATION THE AFTERNOON FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THINKING WILL BE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. OBSERVATIONS OVER WEST TEXAS CONFIRM THIS IS HAPPENING. THE RUC MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING. FORECAST WILL USE A BLEND OF RUC AND GFS TO ARRIVE AT HUMIDITIES RANGING 11 TO 18 PERCENT FROM WEST TO EAST. NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER CIRRUS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THAT THE VERY SHARP MORNING INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW EVERYONE TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 60S...AND SATELLITE INDICATES A PATCHY NATURE TO THE CIRRUS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALONE...MEANING THOSE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY ENVELOPE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS PLACES THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA CITY NORTHWARD IN A BORDERLINE RED FLAG SITUATION...GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...THE WIND FORECAST STILL APPEARS WELL ON TRACK...WITH MUCH GUSTIER CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL NOT EXPAND THE RED FLAG EASTWARD AT THIS TIME...BUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING FIRE DANGER FARTHER EAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 344 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006) DISCUSSION...FIRE WEATHER AGAIN MAIN CONCERN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA TODAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED OVER THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WILL GO WITH RED FLAG WRNG FOR ABOUT THE WRN ONE HALF OF THE FA TODAY. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT OVERNIGHT SO WINDS WILL STAY UP. WARMER TEMPS...CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WARRANT KEEPING FIRE WX WATCH UP FOR SUNDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER STRONG ENOUGH FORCING COULD STILL WRING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS/TEMP PROGS SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA FLATTENS WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW RETURNING. ANOTHER PAC FRONT PROGGED IN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL NOT ADD PRECIP CHANCES ATTM WITH MOISTURE RETURN QUESTIONABLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 10 HOBART OK 68 41 72 40 / 0 0 0 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 69 45 73 45 / 0 0 0 10 GAGE OK 69 37 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 65 44 69 43 / 0 0 0 10 DURANT OK 67 47 67 51 / 0 0 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011- OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019- OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027- OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035- OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043- OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ014-OKZ015- OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ027- OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ044- OKZ045. TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ BURKE/02 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 935 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...STRONG PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC LOW EXITS THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW AND W. WHILE INLAND STATIONS ARE STARTING TO FINALLY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WINDS DIMINISHING...COASTAL STATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST RUC SHOWS A SURGE OF SFC WIND OVER THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MOSTLY CLEAR WILL DO FINE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST INLAND AREAS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING BY DAWN. A NICE WIND CHILL IN THE MORNING WITH A MODERATE BREEZE IN PLACE. NO UPDATE TO THE ZONES AS THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. && .LAKE WINDS...WINDS STILL BLOWING 30 TO 40 MPH OUT OVER THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT SHOWING A DECREASE IN SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .MARINE...IMPRESSIVE GALE CONTINUES BOTH OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH THE RUC SHOWING SPEEDS INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EVEN MORE. WILL THEREFORE UP SEAS JUST A BIT IN THE UPDATE. SCA FOR THE HARBOR LOOKS GOOD OVERNIGHT. BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX ENOUGH THAT THE 5AM EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE NEARSHORE GALE STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. && .AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. ONLY ISSUE IS THE WIND AND WIND SHEAR. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE DECREASE WHILE SPEEDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP KEEP IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045. GA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ350-352-354-374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ330. && $$ PY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 408 PM PST SAT JAN 14 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE INLAND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. BY LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER WET SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN RESULTING IN A RETURN TO WET WEATHER. && .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHTS WEATHER. AS OF 2 PM THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF IDAHO...TO THE SPOKANE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES. THIS POSITIONING WAS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS AND THUS THESE MODELS WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FRONTAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH 06Z...AFFECTING MOST OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND THE SE CORNER OF WASHINGTON. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ATTESTED TO BY THE NEAR FREEZING READING AT MULLAN PASS (6150 FT) SO HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED DESPITE THE HEAVY/MODERATE QPF VALUES. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SE OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA CARE OF NW WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. POST FRONTAL NW WINDS THROUGH THIS LAYER ARE USUALLY A PRECURSOR TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND BLUE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE CASE HERE SINCE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT (500-300 MB LAYER) ARE LAGGING TOO FAR WEST TO BOLSTER THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS OVER THE CWA...BRINGING IMPRESSIVE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO THE ENTIRE AREA DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS COOLING. LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING SUGGESTS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND MOST WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS PER WESTERLY 850 MB WINDS. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE TROF AXIS SHIFTS INTO MONTANA. FX SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING IN SOME RATHER COLD AIR. THE UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS FROM FORMING. IN FACT SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLEAR ON SUNDAY EVENING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RAPIDLY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE AFTER TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 20S MOST LOCATIONS. THICKER MID CLOUD DECK MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING. THIS COOLING IS IMPORTANT FOR PRECIP TYPE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. AS SUCH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE SNOW AT LEAST INITIALLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE SYSTEM OUT NEAR 160W WITH A GOOD MOISTURE TAP INTO THE TROPICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME IS SIMILAR TO TODAY'S SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7 INCHES EXPECTED INTO OUR AREA. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY BACK AT THE DATELINE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND SPIN UP A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF AK BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL START UP MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE CASCADES. GOOD COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW IN THIS AREA. SOUTHEASTLY UPSLOPE FLOW ISN'T ALL THAT GREAT BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WHICH IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND OFFSHORE THAN PAST SYSTEMS. THIS ACTUALLY GIVES A BETTER SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY/HIGHLANDS. TO THE EAST...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SPOKANE AREA AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE WARM AIR INTO THE EASTERN BASIN AND PALOUSE CHANGING SNOW TO RAIN. COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IS MUCH DEEPER AND WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF TUESDAY. IF ALL OF THIS PANS OUT AS PLANNED...WILL PROBABLY BE HOISTING WATCHES FOR MANY ZONES TOMORROW. FOR NOW WILL ADD DETAILS TO THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. RJ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED IN ANY PERIOD DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. CC && .AVIATION...A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN/SNOW...MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS TO THE REGION THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY VFR AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. CC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 29 35 24 33 29 39 / 30 10 0 20 80 80 COEUR D'ALENE 30 35 24 34 28 39 / 50 10 0 20 80 80 PULLMAN 31 36 24 34 30 43 / 70 20 10 20 90 80 LEWISTON 34 41 30 37 33 44 / 70 20 20 10 50 70 COLVILLE 29 35 23 32 26 34 / 40 20 0 30 80 80 SANDPOINT 30 35 26 32 27 34 / 70 60 0 20 80 80 KELLOGG 32 35 27 32 29 39 / 90 70 30 20 80 80 MOSES LAKE 27 38 27 32 29 38 / 10 0 0 50 70 40 WENATCHEE 28 38 26 31 26 33 / 10 10 0 60 90 50 OMAK 25 34 23 31 27 33 / 10 10 10 50 80 50 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 949 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 .UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON THE 12Z RUC AND NAM MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER AT MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT...I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ENDED UP BEING COLDER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WINDS NOT KICKING IN UNTIL LATERTHIS AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RECOVER...THEREFORE... I HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && BOYNE .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 215 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006) SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST FOCUS IS FIRST ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM EASTERN KS... UP ACROSS WESTERN IA AND MN...AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW OVER NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. SOME LOW CLOUDS ALSO LINGERED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WI. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN MN. 00Z 14JAN06 MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCES... ESPECIALLY WITH THE SYSTEM DUE IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NAM MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. NAM HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET...DGEX AND PREVIOUS CANADIAN MODELS...BUT ENSEMBLES AND THE LATEST CANADIAN GO MORE WITH THE GFS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE GFS...AS THIS WAS THE CLOSEST TO CONTINUITY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY... FELT IT BEST TO BE VERY CONSERVATIVE IN MAKING ANY CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS ALSO BRUSHING THE AREA. PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WILL BE UTILIZED. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR IN THE WARM ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT THAT LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD BY JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY...AND 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR SUNDAY. BUT THE ATTENTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR DAYS ON HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE...AND TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT. NAM MOVES THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH FASTER THAN GFS...AND BOTH HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS AS MENTIONED ABOVE. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE...AT LEAST IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHAT TYPE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM...THE AREA COULD BE EITHER BE IN OR OUT OF THE WARM AIR. FOR NOW FEEL GOING TOWARD THE WARM END OF THE SOLUTIONS IS THE BEST...WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL. RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES... AND A MIXTURE ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN BY MONDAY NIGHT...SO WENT WITH SNOW. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND TRACK...A MIX MAY BE NEEDED HERE AS WELL. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY...GONE BY WEDNESDAY. DID SLOW THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OWING TO THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ MW wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 229 AM MST SUN JAN 15 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINTER STORM TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. FLOW IS A LITTLE FLATTER THAN YESTERDAY. SYSTEM IN QUESTION HAD BARELY MADE IT ON THE COAST BY 00Z. ANOTHER PLAYER IN THIS IS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WARM AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS LOOK REASONABLY INITIALIZED. AT MID LEVEL... THROUGH 06Z...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE WOULD SAY THAT THE UKMET AND RUC ARE DOING THE BEST. UKMET DID WELL ON THE HEIGHT FIELD. BASED ON SATELLITE...RUC LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON OUR COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. CANADIAN ALSO DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD EITHER. BASED ON INITIAL ANALYSIS...TRENDS THROUGH 06Z...COLLABORATION...WILL USE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE... RUC...UKMET...GFS...AND CANADIAN. TODAY...HAVE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT A LOT OF CIRRUS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. ALSO LOOK TO HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE ABOVE...WILL GO NEAR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE DAY. HAVE NOT CHECKED RECORDS SINCE HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATING ON INCOMING STORM. BUT WILL CHECK RECORDS AND INSERT WORDING WHERE NEEDED. TONIGHT/MONDAY...AFTER THREE STRAIGHT RUNS OF IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION OUTPUT...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY... ESPECIALLY THE NAM. WHAT MAY BE GOING ON IS THE MODELS ARE HOLDING BACKING MORE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ALL THE MODELS DEPICT THAT. GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND RUC HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH AND IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS WHAT THE PREVIOUS THREE RUNS HAD INDICATED...ESPECIALLY THE RUC AND GFS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THEIR QPF. IF BELIEVE THE LATEST NAM...WE WILL RECEIVE NO PRECIPITATION. AFTER EXTENSIVE PONDERING AND COLLABORATION...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WATCH. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT... DID TREND DOWN ON AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS WILL NOW BE 2 TO 4 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE PLACE TO WATCH WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO STATELINE. INSTABILITY IS BEST THERE AND ALSO THE MAIN LIFT CORRESPONDS CLOSELY TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER. THE ONE DEFINITE WITH THIS STORM AND THE KEY FACTOR IN KEEPING THE WATCH UP IS THE WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. IF AREA DOES END UP GETTING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW...A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY...THIS SCENARIO WILL EVOLVE INTO A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ADVISORY. AS WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS STORM WILL NOT GET GOING TIL WELL INTO THE SECOND PERIOD AND INTO THE THIRD PERIOD. CONSIDERING WHETHER IT SNOWS OR NOT...TEMPERATURES COULD BUST BIG TIME. HOWERVER...WILL STILL CLOSE TO GUIDANCE/CURRENT FORECAST AND BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS. MONDAY NIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS PERIOD. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR NOW. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY. AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALSO MAY HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND. CONSIDERING HOW COLD THE START TO THE DAY WILL BE. WILL STICK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016- KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042. NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081. CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 455 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE -SN TRENDS TODAY AND SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS FROM LATE MON THROUGH TUE. WV IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN TROF...CNTRL RDG AND WRN TROF PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS RESULTING IN NW MID/UPPER LVL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...SE FLOW WAS INCREASING ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES BTWN A RDG FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO LWR MI AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. 285K-295K LYR ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED BROAD AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER THE WRN LAKES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. RADAR INDICATED RETURNS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GREATER REFLECTIVITIES IN ISOLD CONVECTIVE LIKE ELEMENTS TO 28 DBZ OVER THE W HLF OF THE CWA. SOME FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE SFC...BUT PCPN DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOWED BY DRY AIR IN THE 900-750 MB LYR...PER 02Z KSAW TAMDAR SNDG. TODAY...NAM/GFS AND RUC ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF (AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.10 INCH) AS THE BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS TRENDS...MDLS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY EFFECTS OF CONTINUED LOW LVL ESE FLOW OF DRY AIR FROM THE CNTRL LAKES RDG. SO...KEPT MENTION OF ONLY OCNL -SN/FLURRIES OVER THE W 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...MDLS SUGGEST THAT WEAK WAA ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS BY THIS EVENING. SINCE MIN TEMPS WITHIN REMAINING LOW LVL MOIST LYR FCST ONLY TO AROUND -7C (PER NAM)...SOME PATCHY -FZDZ MAY DEVELOP...ESEPCIALLY IN LOCATIONS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE SE FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...-FZDZ IS NOT EXPECTED FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST. LATER MON INTO TUE...WHILE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS PROGRESSIVE WRN CONUS TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN. A SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE 00Z/15 NAM 12Z/14 ECWMF FAVORED BY HPC WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/15 UKMET. MDL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT AN INVERTED TROF WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE WRN LAKES WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD THE AREAS WITH 3-4 G/KG AVBL. SO...EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z/15 GFS MAY BE TOO STRONG AND WRAPPED UP WITH THE SFC LOW INTO LWR MI BY TUE...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE (BY 00Z/WED)...GREATEST EAST. PRELIM SNOW FCST WAS BASED ON A GFS/NAM/GFSENSEMBLE QPF BLEND AND A SNOW WATER RATIO AROUND 12/1. PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENTS THIS SEASON WITH A SFC SE FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN DECENT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...VEERING 950 MB FLOW FROM AROUND 140-160 MON NIGHT WOULD PROVIDE ONLY A MARGINAL FETCH. SO...DID NOT BOOST FCST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 300 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THRU TUE/...PRES RISES ARE BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN OF LATE AND IN TURN WE HAVE SEEN A DECREASE IN WINDS THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH SEVERAL SITES NOW 10 KT OR LESS INLAND. TREND WILL BE FOR A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS THRU THE DAY...AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTN AS FLOW FINALLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...AS MID AND UPPER LOW OFF DELMARVA LIFTS OUT FURTHER TO THE NE TODAY WE DO SEE AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTN AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TONIGHT THRU TUE AS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC MON AND TUE. CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMING SWLY. WITH THIS FLOW WE DO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT MAINLY ONLY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. NOT YET SURE ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK...SO THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER TUE. AT THIS TIME I WILL PROBABLY CARRY ONLY 14 PERCENT POPS OR LESS...BUT PENDING SURROUNDING WFO ANALYSIS I COULD BE PERSUADED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LATE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS INLAND WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND PERHAPS EVEN 70 ON TUE...COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WITH ONSHORE FETCH. && .LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THRU SAT/...THE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH NEXT COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU LATE TUE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...INSTABILITY IS LACKING. THUS NO TSTMS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE ARE NECESSARY. COOLER WX IN WAKE OF FRONT WED INTO THU...BUT AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN NOTHING TOO EXTREMELY COLD /PERHAPS SOME 20S WELL INLAND FOR THE COLDEST WED NIGHT/. ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ATLC. THIS ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB FRI AND SAT. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF POPS THRU SAT. && .MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS HOW LONG THE GALE WARNINGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. BOTH GFS AND RUC MODELS ARE BRINGING THE WINDS DOWN TO ONLY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY 12Z. HOWEVER MANY MARINE SITES ARE STILL INDICATING STRONG SUSTAINED AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH A DECREASING TREND. BUOY 8 HAS DECREASED TO 25 KT GUSTING TO 31 KT AND THE R2 TOWER HAS DROPPED TO 31 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT. AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY REMOVE THE GALES IN THE NEARSHORE GA WATERS WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE...WHILE KEEPING THE GALES GOING IN THE SC WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS UNTIL 15Z TO ALLOW THE MORNING SHIFT TO EVALUATE. DESPITE THE CUTOFF OF COLD ADVECTION BY MORNING...A COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL BE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL APPEARS FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE SC MARINE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW BENIGN CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GFS REPEATS THIS PATTERN BY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW SYSTEM TOWARD THE EAST NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS SOLUTION STAYS CONSISTENT...EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...ALONG WITH A DECREASING THREAT OF LLWS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF SITES. && .LAKE WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH THE MORNING. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 17Z TODAY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045 THROUGH 17Z. GA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ350-352-374 THROUGH 15Z. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ330-354 THROUGH 15Z. && $$ 33/WMS sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 .DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY. FLOW ALOFT(400MB) FROM RUC/SATELLITE OVERLAY SHOWING RATHER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES. STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. WITH OTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WY/CO REGION. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND GFS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON DRAGGING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA MONDAY. TRACK OF H85 LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN...SO THIS IS WHERE I LAYED HIGHEST POPS. SOUTH OF THE H85 LOW TRACK/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL. BUT CHANCE POPS LOOKED BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA-SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST. Q/G FORCING NOT THAT STRONG WITH ALONG/EAST OF THE TROUGH...AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT RUNNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR KMOX-KMIC-KRCX LINE MONDAY. THICKNESS CONCERNS INDICATE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE READINGS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOKS LIKE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. BEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LIES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR KMOX-KSTC-KCBG-KRPD. HERE COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF AREA. SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT GFS HANGS ONTO TROUGH A LITTLE LONGER THAN 12Z NAM. WILL LEAVE POPS IN WESTERN WI AND MENTION FLURRIES IN MN PORTION TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS RATHER STRONG CAA PATTERN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 20S WITH THICKER CLOUDS/NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW FLURRIES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE PASSES AND NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A FAST ZONAL AIRFLOW CONTINUING ALOFT OVER THE AREA. WL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. AFTERWARDS...MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOPS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH THE UPPER ENERGY STAYING WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR MID JANUARY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS FORESEEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ DWE/JVM mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 230 PM MST SUN JAN 15 2006 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY... INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ESE ACROSS NE MT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THRU ENTIRE CWA. STRONG MIXING WITH IT HAS RAISED TEMPS TO LOWER 40S ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN OUR EAST...BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING IN OUR WEST...TO THE UPPER 20S. SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOW A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND SLOWING DOWN QUITE A BIT. RAIN TURNING TO SNOW IN OUR WEST THIS MORNING ALSO SLOWING DOWN AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD AND BREAKING UP...HOWEVER THIS DID PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN PHILLIPS COUNTY. RUC AND ETA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MORE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT WITH JUST MODERATE UPPER DYNAMICS. MORE CONVINCING FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINTER WEATHER IS THE GFS WHICH HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PHILLIPS COUNTY MOISTURE...LIFT...AND VORTICITY. THIS DEVELOPS PRETTY MUCH AT LEAST .10 QPF OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IT HAS CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TOO...AND STRONGER LIFT IN OUR EAST AS WELL. PREFER THIS MODEL FOR AMOUNTS...BUT ETA AGREES WITH THE HIGH POPS IN OUR EAST. SLOWING OF SYSTEM INCREASES CONCERN FOR AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES SNOWFALL IN OUR EAST. AMOUNTS BORDERLINE...BUT IT WILL BE WINDY...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS TONIGHT AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION IN LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN GOOD LAPSE RATES AND MIXING TO SURFACE. UP TO 40 KT WIND AT 850 MB. PRECIP SHOULD END IN THE WEST BY EARLY EVENING THOUGH...NOT TIL MONDAY MORN IN OUR EXTREME EAST. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND CURRENT TEMPS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...AND PROSPECT OF SNOWCOVER...WILL GO COLDER THAN ALL MOS TONIGHT. THICKNESSES DROP TO 520S DM TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES CLEARING...BUT 850 MB TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL ALSO GO A LITTLE BELOW MOS. SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE PAST 4 WEEKS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...SNOWCOVER...AND THE COLDER AIRMASS REMAINING. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT CAUSING THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE TUESDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SO INVERSION PRONE MILK AND MISSOURI VALLEYS WON'T WARM ANY OVER MONDAY...THE 41 ON MET AT GLASGOW APPEARING MUCH TOO HIGH AND PREFER TO GO CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV. SIMONSEN && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... POPS WERE ADDED FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS HEIGHT FALLS TO THE AREA. THIS MAINLY TO HELP WITH COORDINATION AMONGST SURROUNDING OFFICES. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE ARCTIC CANADA AND RUSSIA. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN RECENT WEEKS NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH AIRMASSES MAINLY ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. TUES NIGHT & WEDNESDAY...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE IDEA THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND FIRST A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING....WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...BUT NOTHING THIS FAR OUT THAT SEEMS TO WARRANT ANY POPS. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE ANY DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT & THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. IT ONLY LOOKS TO BE A VERY GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR...AND LACK OF SNOWCOVER TO ALSO HAVE A MODIFYING AFFECT ON THE AIRMASS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AROUND IN THE COLDER AIR...BUT NOTHING WORTHY OF ANY POPS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. THURS NIGHT & FRIDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO GO INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD START TO BACK AND TURN MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY AS MORE JET ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF AVERAGE. NEXT WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT GREAT THIS MORNING. LATEST GFS BRINGS ANOTHER BRINGS A CUT OFF LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND TAKES MOST IT/S ENERGY INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GFS ENSEMBLES START TO SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SEEMS TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO UNTIL THERE ARE CLEAR SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW BY EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY PULL SOME COLDER ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. OTHERS STILL HAVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. CB && .AVIATION... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW/FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAFS (KGGW AND KOLF) LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD WORK INTO KSDY AND KGDV SITES BY MONDAY MORNING. WEST SIDE OF TWEB ROUTE 330 SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. TFJ && .CLIMO...OUR STREAK OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS AT GLASGOW NOW STANDS AT 25. SINCE 12/21/05 THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 31.1 DEGREES IS 19.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE. IT IS THE WARMEST PERIOD (12/21 THROUGH 1/14) SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893. THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY ARE ALSO THE WARMEST ON RECORD...AND A FAR CRY FROM JANUARY OF 2005 WHICH GOT OFF TO ONE OF THE COLDEST STARTS IN THE LAST 50 YEARS. IT IS QUITE REMARKABLE THAT MONTH TO DATE THIS JANUARY IS 40.7 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST YEAR! THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD IN GLASGOW OCCURRED IN 1992...WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 26.6 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS JANUARY STANDS AT 30.4 DEGREES...WHICH IS 20.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE...AND 3.8 DEGREES ABOVE THE JANUARY MONTHLY RECORD. CB && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 018>020 AND 023>027 AND 062 FROM 5 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE UNTIL 11 PM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 1010 AM MST SUN JAN 15 2006 .SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBS SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING ESE THRU THE AREA WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIP IN OUR WEST. NE MT IN A MOIST SW ALOFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON VERIFY THIS IDEA IN SHOWING INTENSIFICATION. RUC EVEN CLOSES OFF A SMALL 500 MB LOW OVER OUR EAST. GFS DEVELOPS INCREASINGLY STRONG LIFT OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH QPF UP TO .36 IN OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL REQUIRE MAJOR UPDATE FOR HIGHER POPS TODAY AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MENTION. THE VERY MILD AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA TO BE REPLACED BY COLDER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO OUR WEST THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S JUST WEST AND NW OF OUR CWA. HIGHS IN OUR WEST TO OCCUR EARLY. MEANWHILE SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH...BUT SHOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW. EXPECT SHALLOW INVERSIONS TO MOSTLY BE MIXED OUT BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES...SO WILL REMOVE FREEZING RAIN MENTION. WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS FORECASTING UP TO 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...LAPSE RATES LOOKING GOOD TO MIX MOST OF THIS TO SURFACE. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT POSSIBILITY OF AN ADVISORY IN OUR EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS WHEN TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TO REACH CRITERIA. SIMONSEN PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THRU TUESDAY......A BRUSH WITH WINTER...YOU REMEMBER WINTER... UPPER TROF NOW MOVING THRU WESTERN PART WASHINGTON...OREGON...AND CALIFORNIA WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME RATHER DECENT MOISTURE HEADED OUR WAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE BACK AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT LOOMS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. MODELS ALL INDICATING THAT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE HAD TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE COMING IN AND FRONTAL DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH AT LEAST A MODICUM OF UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE RAISED THE POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM WHERE THEY WERE. WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL MEAN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING BECOMING SNOW IN THE NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. NOT THINKING ANY FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE THAT EXTENSIVE...SO FOR NOW WILL FOREGO AN ADVISORY. SNOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO...ALTHO A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH AND THE LITTLE ROCKIES COULD GET CLOSE TO TWO INCHES. WIND WILL GET RATHER EXCITED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY SO WILL HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING MAKING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SIMPLY SNOW. HOWEVER FRONTAL LIFT PASSES AND UPPER SUPPORT WANES BETWEEN THE WEAK DEPARTING ENERGY OF TODAY AND THE MAIN UPPER TROF DUE TO PASS MIDDAY MONDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL AFTER THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS DEPARTED EAST. THUS WILL MERELY HAVE SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY MORNING THEN DRY THINGS OUT. BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY. WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY RETURNS FOR TUESDAY MAKING THE COLD SNAP OF MONDAY AT STILL 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RATHER WEAK AND SHORT LIVED...ALTHO LACK OF MIXING FOR MOST TUESDAY WILL INHIBIT A BIG WARMUP FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE ARCTIC CANADA AND RUSSIA. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN RECENT WEEKS NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH AIRMASSES MAINLY ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. TUES NIGHT & WEDNESDAY...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE IDEA THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND FIRST A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING....WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...BUT NOTHING THIS FAR OUT THAT SEEMS TO WARRANT ANY POPS. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE ANY DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT & THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. IT ONLY LOOKS TO BE A VERY GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR...AND LACK OF SNOWCOVER TO ALSO HAVE A MODIFYING AFFECT ON THE AIRMASS. CERTAINLY COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AROUND IN THE COLDER AIR...BUT NOTHING WORTHY OF ANY POPS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. THURS NIGHT & FRIDAY...MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO GO INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD START TO BACK AND TURN MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY AS MORE JET ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF AVERAGE. NEXT WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT GREAT THIS MORNING. LATEST GFS BRINGS ANOTHER BRINGS A CUT OFF LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND TAKES MOST IT/S ENERGY INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GFS ENSEMBLES START TO SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SEEMS TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO UNTIL THERE ARE CLEAR SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW BY EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY PULL SOME COLDER ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. OTHERS STILL HAVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. CB && .AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY. THE EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SNOW THIS MORNING IS AT KGGW...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF PRECIPITATION VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE 6-9K FT AGL RANGE. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN ANY AREAS OF SNOW. THE WIND WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. THE WIND WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS. CB && .CLIMO...OUR STREAK OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS AT GLASGOW NOW STANDS AT 25. SINCE 12/21/05 THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 31.1 DEGREES IS 19.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE. IT IS THE WARMEST PERIOD (12/21 THROUGH 1/14) SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893. THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY ARE ALSO THE WARMEST ON RECORD...AND A FAR CRY FROM JANUARY OF 2005 WHICH GOT OFF TO ONE OF THE COLDEST STARTS IN THE LAST 50 YEARS. IT IS QUITE REMARKABLE THAT MONTH TO DATE THIS JANUARY IS 40.7 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST YEAR! THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD IN GLASGOW OCCURRED IN 1992...WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 26.6 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS JANUARY STANDS AT 30.4 DEGREES...WHICH IS 20.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE...AND 3.8 DEGREES ABOVE THE JANUARY MONTHLY RECORD. CB && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE 10 AM TO 9 PM. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 .UPDATE...MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE WINDS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...WITH CURRENT READINGS RUNNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. NEW MOS OUTPUT CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS WELL...AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT TODAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST IS NOW FOR A RANGE OF LOWER 70S EAST TO UPPER 70S WEST...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS APPROACH 80 DEGREES DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND USING RUC OUTPUT. THE WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HUMIDITIES 10 TO 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA..WITH VALUES 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE A WEAK INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006) DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THICK CI HAS RESULTED IN VERY MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WITH CONTINUED S TO SW LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT. STILL MAXES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED. WITH 40 TO 50 KT 925MB AND 850 MB WINDS SHOWING UP ON AREA PROFILERS THIS MORNING AND FAIRLY TIGHT SFC GRADIENT EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP BY MID MORNING. WITH STG WINDS EXPECTED...WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WILL CONTINUE WITH RED FLAG FROM PREV FORECAST AND GO AHEAD AND EXPAND IT INTO SE ZONES AS WINDS THERE WILL BE ABOVE CRIT ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE BORDERLINE. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE FA DURING THE DAY. NAM IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND WILL COMPROMISE WITH THE TIMING. IF THE SLOWER SOLN IS CORRECT COULD SEE CRIT FIRE CONDITIONS FOR A TIME IN THE SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH ATTM. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN AS PER PREV FCST WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH BEST MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. MODERATING TEMPS WED/THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL ADD POPS TO FRIDAY FORECAST BASED ON TIMING OF THE UPR SYSTEM AND FNTL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO IN THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 44 55 30 / 0 10 20 20 HOBART OK 75 41 53 27 / 0 10 20 20 WICHITA FALLS TX 76 46 64 32 / 0 10 10 20 GAGE OK 76 36 41 21 / 0 0 40 20 PONCA CITY OK 71 43 51 27 / 0 10 20 30 DURANT OK 71 51 71 36 / 0 10 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013- OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021- OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029- OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045- OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ BURKE/02 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 940 AM MST SUN JAN 15 2006 .DISCUSSION...WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AS 60 MPH IN PORTIONS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...KEBK AND KPUM AT MID MORNING. 700 MB HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OVER THE AREA WERE NEAR 60 METERS AT 12Z WITH MODELS INDICATING THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ON THE LOWEST GATES OF THE MEDICINE BOW PROFILER WERE ALSO AT 55 KNOTS AS OF 16Z. SO IN A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY. MOST POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY IN CARBON COUNTY...WHERE LIGHT SNOW FELL FOR A TIME EARLIER AT KRWL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 300 MB JET STREAK HAVE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SNOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO AT MID MORNING...EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING. THAT ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO SLOWLY SPREAD WEST...WITH LATEST MESOETA AND RUC FORECASTS KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST AND NORTH PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 220 AM... SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC STATES WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SNOW STARTING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN OF CARBON COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING. WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO COULD FALL OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THEIR DRYING TREND WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE NAM DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT... AND THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FEATURE... NEITHER SOLUTION RESULTS IN MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. THUS HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS COLDER TEMPS FOR THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LEAVES A BLUSTERY DAY FOR THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BORA WIND EVENT OVER THE PANHANDLE UNDER A STRONG NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH AS THE STRENGTH OF THE EVENT IS IFFY...BUT AT LEAST AN ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR TOMORROW FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DIRTY RIDGE WILL SET UP BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOW A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS REGIME. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WY ON THURSDAY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. LOOKS TO BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ WEILAND wy