AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1146 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION...SFC TROUGH CLOSING IN ON CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE ATTM...HOWEVER THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SYS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPR LEVEL FEATURES INCLUDING CLOUDS/PRECIP FOR TODAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POP/QPF FOR ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGHS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THERE...SEE LITTLE PROBLEM CRAWLING TO NEAR 50 TO 55 BY LATE DAY...DESPITE H850 THERMAL RIDGE HEADING ESE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPS NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. PREVIEW OF LATE TNT/FRI...LOOKS RATHER BREEZY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. /REV .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS/AMOUNTS/TYPE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TODAY...TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE 06Z RUC13 HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIP. THE 06Z NAM IS ALSO TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WITH A DIGGING H5 TROF AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...THE SLOWER TIMING LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC AND NAM. PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A BIT TRICKY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. I SUSPECT DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION. GFS COBB PRECIP OUTPUT IS GENERATING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH. I STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 2 OR 3 TENTHS. IF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OR MORE SLEET OCCUR...THIS COULD END UP BEING A SEEMINGLY LOW KEY WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT CAUSES SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS. EXPECT A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FRIDAY WITH A STRONG NW WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON/T BE TAPPING THE BEST MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT THE TRACK COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ KINNEY/REV ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 PM EST THU JAN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A MID LVL RDG OVER THE WEST COAST A TROF OVER THE PLAINS AND A BROAD RDG OVER THE ERN STATES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF NOTE UPSTREAM...A NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT INTO MN/NW ONTARIO WHILE A STRONGER SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING THRU THE SRN PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS RIDING OVER THE RDG TOWARD THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA. SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARING SHRTWV IS LOCATED JUST N OF YQT... WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN LK SUP AND APRCHG THE WRN ZNS ATTM. AIRMASS OVER THE FA AHEAD OF THE FNT IS QUITE WARM FOR THE SEASON...00Z GRB SDNG/TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOW H85 TEMP OF 6C. BOTH SDNGS SHOW SHARP INVRN JUST ABV THE SFC WITH VERY DRY MID LVLS. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SHRTWV RESTRICTED TO THE WRN FA AND LK SUP...SO FOG/ST HAS DVLPD OR PERSISTS WHERE CLRG HAS ENHANCED RADIATION HEAT LOSS OVER LLVL AIRMASS MOISTENED BY SN MELT TDAY AFTER HI TEMPS REACHED WELL INTO THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLD PRESENT ALG APRCHG COLD FNT...00Z MPX RAOB AND TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH INDICATE A DRY LYR AT LEAST 150MB THICK ABV LLVL MSTR AND HIER MID LLVL MSTR. NARROW BAND OF RADAR RETURNS ALG FNT HAVE BEEN DRYING UP LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DESPITE PRESENCE OF SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES REPORTED UPSTREAM AS PCPN BAND PASSED OVHD. LLVL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT IS A BIT MORE MOIST PER THE 00Z INL SDNG...WHERE NR SATURATION APRNT UP TO H675. TEMP AT TOP OF MOIST LYR AS LO AS -14C. DESPITE PRESENCE OF WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE FVRBL UPR DVGC AND TEMPS FOR EFFICIENT ICE NUCLEATION...LTL IF ANY PCPN NOTED BEHIND FNT. OTRW...QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD AHEAD OF SRN BRANCH SHRTWV STREAMING NEWD THRU ERN WI TOWARD THE ECNTRL FA. SFC TEMPS BEHIND THE FNT FALL THRU THE 20S TOWARD THE UPR TEENS IN NW MN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT REVOLVE ARND PCPN CHCS/TYPE AND FOG COVG. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS SHEARING OUT OVERNGHT WHILE SFC LO N OF YQT PASSES ACRS NRN LK SUP AND DRAGS SFC COLD FNT ACRS THE FA. 00Z NAM GENERATES UP TO 0.25 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER THE NW COUNTIES BY 09Z WITH INCRSG UPR DVGC/H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS IN RRQ OF ONTARIO JET MAX OVER NARROW MOIST LYR NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN ZNS. HOWEVER...NAM SHOWED UP TO 0.10 INCH PCPN FALLING OVER THE WRN ZNS BTWN 00Z-03Z UNDER WHERE MOIST BAND NOW DRYING UP AND JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OBSVD. PROBLEM SEEMS RELATED TO MISDIAGNOSIS OF MID LVL MSTR OVER THE WRN ZNS. 00HR NAM SDNGS FOR THE AREA APPEAR TOO MOIST RELATIVE TO OBSVD TAMDAR SDNGS FM DLH/CMX. LATEST RUC13 QPF APPEARS TO BE SUPERIOR. THIS MODEL SHOWS MAINLY DRY WX THRU ABOUT 08Z... THEN ABOUT 0.05-0.10 INCH OVER THE WRN ZNS BTWN 08Z-12Z. SINCE TEMPS ARND 35 ATTM OVER THE W AND DEPTH OF ABV FRZG LYR WELL OVER 1K FT... EXPECT PCPN TO START AS -RA BEFORE CHGING OVER TO SN AS COLDER AIR UPSTREAM POURS IN AND UPR DVGC/FRONTOGENESIS/EVAP COOLING ENHANCE COOLING ALF. WL MENTION UP TO AN INCH OF SN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW WHERE RUC13 QPF MAXIMIZED. OTRW...ONLY CHG TO GOING FCST WAS TO LOWER TMINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE CLRG HAS ALLOWED MERCURY TO NOSEDIVE INTO THE MID 20S. EXPECT FOG COVG TO EXPAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE INCRSG CLDS PUT A CAP ON A MORE DRASTIC TEMP DECLINE AND PREVENT FOG FM BECMG SO DENSE OVER A WSSPRD AREA AS TO REQUIRE AN ADVY. KC .LONG TERM... FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAIRLY SHALLOW MSTR...MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS (-8 TO -10C AT 850 MB) AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND DEPARTED FRONT ARGUE FOR LOWERING SNOW POPS AND MENTIONING JUST PATCHY FZDZ/DZ OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF PD. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE FOR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN ONSHORE NRLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WEAKENING AND BACKING FLOW WILL END PCPN CHCS FROM WEST BY SAT AFT. SUN INTO THU...GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL APPEAR INTENT ON PHASING JET STREAMS AND DEVELOPING STRONGER LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SOMETIME TUE OR WED. LIKED ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT UMKET SOLNS WHICH INDICATE MORE STRUNG OUT AND ELONGATED TROF TO MOVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES MON INTO TUE. THESE SOLNS AGREE BETTER WITH GFS REFORECAST EMSEMBLE AND IS ALSO NCEP PREFERRED SOLN. SO WILL GO WITH DRY FCST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THEN BRING CHC OF -SN OR FZDZ ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING TROF. MENTIONED FZDZ AS PROFILES RELATIVELY WARM AND MOISTURE SHALLOW. KEPT IN CHC OF SNOW ON TUE WITH A BIT COLDER 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C MOVING ACROSS AREA. RDGG IN WAKE OF TROF/FRONT WILL END SNOW FROM WEST BY EARLY WED. INTRODUCED LOW CHC POP FOR SNOW ON THU WITH APPROACH OF NEXT TROF/FRONT FM NRN PLAINS. VOSS && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 500 PM EST THU JAN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A MID LVL RDG OVER THE WEST COAST A TROF OVER THE PLAINS AND A BROAD RDG OVER THE ERN STATES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF NOTE UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OVER NRN PLAINS WHILE A STRONGER SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS RIDING OVER THE RDG IN THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...A TROF/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI. PLENTY OF CLOUDS NOTED OVER MN AND NW WI BEHIND COLD FRONT WHILE CLOUDS MORE SCT TO BKN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF WI AND UPR MI HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. MELTING SNOW FROM WARM TEMPS HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS IN UPR 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF CWA WITH PATCHY FOG OR HAZE REPORTED AT MANY AUTOMATED SITES. TONIGHT...MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS UPR DIV IN RRQ OF DEPARTING JET IN ONTARIO WEAKENS ALONG APPROACHING TROF/CDFNT. ALSO UPSTREAM 12Z SNDGS OVER KBIS AND CYQD NOT SHOWING A LOT IN WAY OF DEEP MSTR WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF OVER WRN HALF OF U.P. AND NOW SHOW ERN HALF DRY TONIGHT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN THIS EVIDENCE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY UPSTREAM OBS AND DIMINISHING RADAR TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK CHC OF SNOW TO FLURRIES OVER WEST TONIGHT AND EVEN INTRODUCED MENTION OF DZ/FZDZ GIVEN HOW SHALLOW MSTR IS IN RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE. WENT WITH DRY FCST OVER ERN HALF COUNTIES WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CDFNT THERE. MELTING SNOW FROM WARM TEMPS TODAY AND BKN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES... ESCPECIALLY FOR ERN COUNTIES IN UPSLOPE/WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAIRLY SHALLOW MSTR...MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS (-8 TO -10C AT 850 MB) AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND DEPARTED FRONT ARGUE FOR LOWERING SNOW POPS AND MENTIONING JUST PATCHY FZDZ/DZ OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF PD. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE FOR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN ONSHORE NRLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WEAKENING AND BACKING FLOW WILL END PCPN CHCS FROM WEST BY SAT AFT. SUN INTO THU...GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL APPEAR INTENT ON PHASING JET STREAMS AND DEVELOPING STRONGER LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SOMETIME TUE OR WED. LIKED ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT UMKET SOLNS WHICH INDICATE MORE STRUNG OUT AND ELONGATED TROF TO MOVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES MON INTO TUE. THESE SOLNS AGREE BETTER WITH GFS REFORECAST EMSEMBLE AND IS ALSO NCEP PREFERRED SOLN. SO WILL GO WITH DRY FCST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THEN BRING CHC OF -SN OR FZDZ ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING TROF. MENTIONED FZDZ AS PROFILES RELATIVELY WARM AND MOISTURE SHALLOW. KEPT IN CHC OF SNOW ON TUE WITH A BIT COLDER 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C MOVING ACROSS AREA. RDGG IN WAKE OF TROF/FRONT WILL END SNOW FROM WEST BY EARLY WED. INTRODUCED LOW CHC POP FOR SNOW ON THU WITH APPROACH OF NEXT TROF/FRONT FM NRN PLAINS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1130 AM EST THU JAN 12 2006 .UPDATE... LOW CLOUD DECK HAS LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO WORKING NORTH. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF MI... SO HAVE UPDATED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AT H8 THIS AFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS AROUND 10C SPREADING IN FROM THE SW. HOWEVER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING WILL ONLY OCCUR THROUGH 950 MB. THUS CURRENT FCST HIGHS AROUND 50 LOOK FINE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM. && $$ MEADE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1055 AM EST THU JAN 12 2006 .UPDATE... LGT S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRES TROUGH OVR MN TO KS HELPING TO TRANSPORT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO FORECAST AREA FM LK MI AND LWR MI. CLEAR SKIES...HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW LAST COUPLE DAYS RESULTED IN FOG LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. 12Z SOUNDING FM MPX AND GRB NEARLY IDENTICAL SHOWING LOW LEVEL SATURATION TRAPPED BENEATH WARM LAYER THROUGH H9. H9 TEMPS AS WARM AS +10C AT MPX AND SFC TEMPS BLO 0C ONLY HELPS TO STRENGTHEN INVERSION. GOOD COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVR UPR LAKES WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT H3 JET ARCING FM DAKOTAS INTO S ONTARIO. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT IN LOWEST 100MB AND INSOLATION CUT DOWN BY MID CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL MIXING. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MIXING TO ACHIEVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH SUCH WARM TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC. MAIN CHANGE OF NOTE WAS TO LINGER FOG A BIT LONGER THAN TYPICAL MORNING DISSIPATION. KSAW AT 15Z (10 AM EST) STILL BLO 1/4 MILE WITH CEILINGS OF 200 FT. OBSERVERS REPORTED NO INDICATION THAT FOG WAS GOING TO LIFT ANYTIME SOON. KEPT THE FOG MENTION UNTIL 18Z. OTHERWISE...MIXED MID CLOUDS AND DISSIPATING LOWER CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. NEXT PCPN CHANCE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE OVR W UPR MI. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY AIR H9-H7 WILL PROHIBIT MUCH PCPN OVR E HALF OF CWA UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT. NEXT SHIFT MAY TWEAK TIMING A BIT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE IS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE OTHERS ARE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO...NORTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. A WEAK BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...INTO NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EASTERN ONTARIO WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA DEEPENS OVER MINNESOTA AND A RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE MINNESOTA SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL LAKES SUPERIOR DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL U.P. THE WEST END OF THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. A BROAD RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NAM/GFS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT EAST OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. A SURFACE BASED INVERSION IN THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOISTENING UP OF THE SURFACE-500MB LAYER STARTING OVER THE WEST AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EVENING...AND COOLING OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING THAT THERE MAY BE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUTOFF LOW AS IT SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THIS SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH PLAINS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PRODUCING A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T TO AROUND 13C WHICH WOULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECTS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL TREK SLOWLY INTO EASTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 17C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE-500MB RH WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE OVER PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY DRY...LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...WHILE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO GROW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD END THE SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESS CENTER IS TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL RH WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. LATE. ON SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE. GFS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE GRIDS...SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THERE FOR NOW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 905 AM MST THU JAN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...FOR TODAY... UPDATED...MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATIONARY COLD FRONT HAS CREATED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THEREFORE EXPANDED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY EAST. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE NO OTHER CHANGES. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A STRONGER HINT OF SUPPORT FOR IT. ASIDE FROM THIS...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...LOOKING AT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUT LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD GFS. TODAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A FLAT...AND DIRTY...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS AND SHIFTS EAST ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST OF FLURRIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW BASED PARTLY ON PERSISTENCE AND PARTLY ON HINT OF A BAND WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUPPORT SMUDGE OF POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CWA...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF EARLIER FORECAST VALUES. RUC AND NAM ARE DRY...DO NOT DO MUCH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE CHRONICALLY MORE MOIST GFS WRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. CALLING FOR PRECIP TO BE SNOW/FLURRIES...MAXIMA RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER SOUTHEAST BUT BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR ANY SHOWERS...HENCE SNOW. EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING TODAY...COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE BACKED OFF WINDS ON ACCOUNT OF MORE CLOUDS INHIBITING MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND QUICKER RELAXATION OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER THAN HAD BEEN THOUGHT EARLIER. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DIRTY RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES TO WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH PERIOD. MODELS... ESPECIALLY GFS...TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DROPS OR FLAKES FROM WEAK IMPULSES THAN MANAGE TO PERIODICALLY CROSS THROUGH RIDGE...BUT DISCOUNTING ALL SUCH FEATURES. WILL SEE VARYING CLOUDS...GENERALLY INCREASING FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BACKS WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF RIDGE. EXPECT A WEAK LEE TROUGH TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION. WITH CORE OF SURFACE HIGH SOUTH OF REGION RATHER THAN DUE EAST...LEE TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...WHILE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO PREVAIL AS WELL AS TYPICAL CHANNELLED EASTERLY FLOW IN MILK/MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS...PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT CHANNELED EASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD A BIT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO CLOUDS...HAVE GENERALLY GONE A BIT BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAXIMA AND MINIMA...BUT MODEL PERFORMANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAS NOT BEEN STELLAR DURING THIS RECENT WARM SPELL. MOS TREND HAS BEEN WARMER RUN TO RUN...HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT TYPICALLY HAVE BETTER MIXING THAN NORTHEAST VALLEYS WHERE MIXING OFTEN INHIBITED. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY... COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEFED UP POPS A BIT SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BEGINNING TO LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE TUESDAY. NICE WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY AS WE RECOVER FROM SUNDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIDGE GETS BROKEN DOWN WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MEANWHILE A WEST COAST TROF DEEPENS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AS ENERGY COULD VERY WELL SPLIT AND LEAVE US IN THE DRY MIDDLE. IT DOES APPEAR THO THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS WEEK...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY WEEKS END WE COULD HAVE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THAN WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO ARCTIC INTRUSION. HOW LONG CAN WE CONTINUE TO LIVE LARGE IN MID-WINTER? && .AVIATION...MVFR AT TIMES THRU MID-MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES IN WAKE OF WEAK FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSAGE LAST EVENING. VFR ALL SITES LATE MORNING ONWARD. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 755 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW... 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES NOTED AHEAD OF FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM OF CWFA WITH A BRIEF RIBBON OF BROKEN/SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA PROVINCE. .SHORT TERM... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT CONCERNS DEGREE/AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND RESULTANT LOW TEMPERATURES. 00Z RUC MODEL SUGGESTS 1000- 850MB WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH COLDEST READINGS FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER MERCURY DESCENT. WILL MONITOR CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS DURING THIS EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS POINT TO UPDATE TO ADD MORE CLOUDS AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ARRIVAL OF LOWER/THICKER CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTHERN MB. && EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF IFR CONDITONS MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY FROM PARK RAPIDS NORTHWARD. .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ BERG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 932 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .UPDATE... WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAS EXPIRED. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SW OK AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON KFDR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDED MENTION OF AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. AS DRY AS IT HAS BEEN...THAT IS ALL THAT IS LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...RAIN/SLEET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 720 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006) UPDATE... EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ALSO HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE OKC METRO AREA. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 634 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006) UPDATE... UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 346 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006) DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LOT OF WEATHER TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT THE FORECAST STILL BOILS DOWN TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER END OF THE EXTREME CATEGORY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PLAINS EVERY FEW DAYS WITH A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS...BUT EACH SYSTEM TENDS TO HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SLOW DOWN TO ALLOW RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE EXCEPT IN EAST TEXAS AND ARKANSAS. THE STORY THEN BECOMES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE CASE BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE AT I-44 JUST BEFORE 6 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN OR ELEVATED TERRAIN. PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN GUST TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE BELT OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. ENOUGH MESONET STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED AND GUST CRITERIA TO PUSH US OVER TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...WITH THE NUMBER OF ONGOING FIRES AND DELAYED DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT...WILL EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO 9 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. IN THE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ATOKA AND DURANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...NEARLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT PER SATELLITE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST VERY QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE IN PLACE FOR A STRONG STORM TO BRIEFLY AFFECT ATOKA OR BRYAN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DEEPER STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGER NAM/ETA WINDS MAY PAN OUT FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY...WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A COLDER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS COMING IN DRIER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT OFF THE GULF MOISTURE...WITH A MODIFIED RETURN BEING DIVERTED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY...WARM...AND WINDY WEEKEND. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE BORDERLINE. WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO MAKE A DECISION ON FRIDAY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. ONCE AGAIN...WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY REACH NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AHEAD OF IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 56 27 64 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 34 59 28 65 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 38 60 28 68 / 10 0 0 0 GAGE OK 24 57 24 66 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 34 53 25 63 / 90 0 0 0 DURANT OK 43 58 31 66 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ037-OKZ038- OKZ039-OKZ044-OKZ045. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ084-TXZ085- TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 11/07 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 720 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .UPDATE... EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ALSO HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE OKC METRO AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 634 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006) UPDATE... UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 346 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006) DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LOT OF WEATHER TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT THE FORECAST STILL BOILS DOWN TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER END OF THE EXTREME CATEGORY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PLAINS EVERY FEW DAYS WITH A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS...BUT EACH SYSTEM TENDS TO HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SLOW DOWN TO ALLOW RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE EXCEPT IN EAST TEXAS AND ARKANSAS. THE STORY THEN BECOMES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE CASE BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE AT I-44 JUST BEFORE 6 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN OR ELEVATED TERRAIN. PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN GUST TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE BELT OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. ENOUGH MESONET STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED AND GUST CRITERIA TO PUSH US OVER TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...WITH THE NUMBER OF ONGOING FIRES AND DELAYED DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT...WILL EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO 9 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. IN THE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ATOKA AND DURANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...NEARLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT PER SATELLITE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST VERY QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE IN PLACE FOR A STRONG STORM TO BRIEFLY AFFECT ATOKA OR BRYAN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DEEPER STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGER NAM/ETA WINDS MAY PAN OUT FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY...WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A COLDER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS COMING IN DRIER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT OFF THE GULF MOISTURE...WITH A MODIFIED RETURN BEING DIVERTED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY...WARM...AND WINDY WEEKEND. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE BORDERLINE. WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO MAKE A DECISION ON FRIDAY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. ONCE AGAIN...WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY REACH NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AHEAD OF IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 56 27 64 / 20 0 0 0 HOBART OK 34 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 38 60 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 28 57 24 66 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 34 53 25 63 / 90 0 0 0 DURANT OK 43 58 31 66 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ009- OKZ010-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ033-OKZ034- OKZ035-OKZ036. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ027-OKZ028- OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040- OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048- OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ037-OKZ038- OKZ039-OKZ044-OKZ045. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ084-TXZ085- TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 11/07 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 634 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .UPDATE... UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 346 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006) DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LOT OF WEATHER TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT THE FORECAST STILL BOILS DOWN TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER END OF THE EXTREME CATEGORY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PLAINS EVERY FEW DAYS WITH A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS...BUT EACH SYSTEM TENDS TO HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SLOW DOWN TO ALLOW RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE EXCEPT IN EAST TEXAS AND ARKANSAS. THE STORY THEN BECOMES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE CASE BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE AT I-44 JUST BEFORE 6 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN OR ELEVATED TERRAIN. PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN GUST TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE BELT OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. ENOUGH MESONET STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED AND GUST CRITERIA TO PUSH US OVER TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...WITH THE NUMBER OF ONGOING FIRES AND DELAYED DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT...WILL EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO 9 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. IN THE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ATOKA AND DURANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...NEARLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT PER SATELLITE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST VERY QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE IN PLACE FOR A STRONG STORM TO BRIEFLY AFFECT ATOKA OR BRYAN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DEEPER STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGER NAM/ETA WINDS MAY PAN OUT FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY...WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A COLDER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS COMING IN DRIER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT OFF THE GULF MOISTURE...WITH A MODIFIED RETURN BEING DIVERTED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY...WARM...AND WINDY WEEKEND. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE BORDERLINE. WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO MAKE A DECISION ON FRIDAY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. ONCE AGAIN...WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY REACH NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AHEAD OF IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 56 27 64 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 34 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 38 60 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 28 57 24 66 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 34 53 25 63 / 80 0 0 0 DURANT OK 43 58 31 66 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ009- OKZ010-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ033-OKZ034- OKZ035-OKZ036. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ027-OKZ028- OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040- OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048- OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 11/07 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 346 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LOT OF WEATHER TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT THE FORECAST STILL BOILS DOWN TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER END OF THE EXTREME CATEGORY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PLAINS EVERY FEW DAYS WITH A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS...BUT EACH SYSTEM TENDS TO HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SLOW DOWN TO ALLOW RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE EXCEPT IN EAST TEXAS AND ARKANSAS. THE STORY THEN BECOMES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE CASE BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD ARRIVE AT I-44 JUST BEFORE 6 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN OR ELEVATED TERRAIN. PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN GUST TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE BELT OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. ENOUGH MESONET STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED AND GUST CRITERIA TO PUSH US OVER TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...WITH THE NUMBER OF ONGOING FIRES AND DELAYED DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT...WILL EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO 9 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. IN THE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ATOKA AND DURANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...NEARLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT PER SATELLITE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST VERY QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE IN PLACE FOR A STRONG STORM TO BRIEFLY AFFECT ATOKA OR BRYAN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DEEPER STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGER NAM/ETA WINDS MAY PAN OUT FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY...WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A COLDER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS COMING IN DRIER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT OFF THE GULF MOISTURE...WITH A MODIFIED RETURN BEING DIVERTED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY...WARM...AND WINDY WEEKEND. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE BORDERLINE. WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO MAKE A DECISION ON FRIDAY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. ONCE AGAIN...WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY REACH NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AHEAD OF IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 56 27 64 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 34 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 38 60 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 28 57 24 66 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 34 53 25 63 / 30 0 0 0 DURANT OK 43 58 31 66 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ009- OKZ010-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ033-OKZ034- OKZ035-OKZ036. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ027-OKZ028- OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040- OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048- OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ BURKE ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 136 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT PREVAIL ANOTHER 1 TO 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES NORTH OF THE EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT THAT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE EXPANDING RED FLAG WARNING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... BELIEVE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WILL PREVAIL LONG ENOUGH WHERE A SLIGHTLY LARGER RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY BE REQUIRED BASED ON SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WINDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS THAT SPEEDS COULD PUSH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ013-OKZ014- OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ021-OKZ022- OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030- OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038- OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046- OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. JAMES -------------------------- 1015 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 PROGRESSIVE 125 KT UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS ALLOWING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND IS LIFTING A DEEP/HIGH-BASED MOISTURE PLUME TO EXPAND/ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DRYLINE IS SETTING UP BETWEEN STILLWATER AND ARDMORE WITH A MODEST PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET ACROSS KANSAS. LATEST TRENDS AND MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 3 TO 5 HRS SLOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE EXTREME/ CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...DUNCAN...AND ALTUS... WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT. SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT ONLY IMPLIES A LATER WIND SHIFT...BUT MAY ALSO SUPPORT MORE EXTREME WILDFIRE CONDITIONS EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND SHOULD EASILY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RED FLAG WARNING BY AFTERNOON. REDUCED INSOLATION ACCOMPANYING EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES MAY ALSO PREVENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE 70. ALTHOUGH THE RUC/NAM INDICATE THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD EASILY REACH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 40...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE AIR WILL MIX MOST DEEPLY. REGIONAL PROFILERS/88D VWP ALREADY SHOW 35-45 KT WINDS 1-3 KFT ABOVE GROUND. LATEST PRESSURE TENDENCIES OVER KANSAS/INTENSE UPPER JET SUPPORT THESE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW LIKELY PERSISTING EAST OF INTERSTATE 44 AFTER 3 PM. THE NEARBY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WOODWARD BY NOON... PONCA CITY...KINGFISHER...ERICK BY 3 PM...SEMINOLE...PAULS VALLEY ...WICHITA FALLS BY 6 PM....ATOKA AND DURANT BY 9 PM. HOWEVER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/DIGGING NATURE OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO COME THROUGH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 HOURS SLOWER. GRIDS MAY BE UPDATED LATER IF FUTURE TRENDS SUPPORT AN EVEN SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. JAMES ------------------------- 422 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY IS BACK TO FIRE WEATHER. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH. PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ACCORDING TO THE HOLLIS MESONET... AND THE DEWPOINT AT LUBBOCK IS CURRENTLY -1. VERY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY... AND WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL. EVEN BEING SOMEWHAT GENEROUS WITH THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS... RH VALUES FALL TO BELOW 20 PERCENT SOUTH OF A CHANDLER TO OKC TO ELK CITY LINE. WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING UP TO THAT LINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURE/RH VALUES LESS EXTREME IN THE NORTH. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TROUBLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM. CURRENT PROGS SHOW THE SURFACE DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THE BEST MOISTURE EAST. IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO WILL NOT BUY IN ON SPECIFIC SURFACE FEATURE POSITIONS YET... BUT WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY IF WE DO INDEED GET A STRONG SURFACE DRY PUSH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 34 56 29 / 0 5 0 0 HOBART OK 67 31 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 76 36 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 60 26 54 26 / 5 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 62 31 51 28 / 10 10 0 0 DURANT OK 73 41 59 32 / 5 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ037-OKZ044-OKZ045. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026- OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034- OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043- OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088- TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 24/26 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 PROGRESSIVE 125 KT UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS ALLOWING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND IS LIFTING A DEEP/HIGH-BASED MOISTURE PLUME TO EXPAND/ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DRYLINE IS SETTING UP BETWEEN STILLWATER AND ARDMORE WITH A MODEST PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET ACROSS KANSAS. LATEST TRENDS AND MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 3 TO 5 HRS SLOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE EXTREME/ CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...DUNCAN...AND ALTUS... WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT. SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT ONLY IMPLIES A LATER WIND SHIFT...BUT MAY ALSO SUPPORT MORE EXTREME WILDFIRE CONDITIONS EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND SHOULD EASILY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RED FLAG WARNING BY AFTERNOON. REDUCED INSOLATION ACCOMPANYING EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES MAY ALSO PREVENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE 70. ALTHOUGH THE RUC/NAM INDICATE THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD EASILY REACH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 40...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE AIR WILL MIX MOST DEEPLY. REGIONAL PROFILERS/88D VWP ALREADY SHOW 35-45 KT WINDS 1-3 KFT ABOVE GROUND. LATEST PRESSURE TENDENCIES OVER KANSAS/INTENSE UPPER JET SUPPORT THESE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW LIKELY PERSISTING EAST OF INTERSTATE 44 AFTER 3 PM. THE NEARBY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WOODWARD BY NOON... PONCA CITY...KINGFISHER...ERICK BY 3 PM...SEMINOLE...PAULS VALLEY ...WICHITA FALLS BY 6 PM....ATOKA AND DURANT BY 9 PM. HOWEVER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/DIGGING NATURE OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO COME THROUGH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 HOURS SLOWER. GRIDS MAY BE UPDATED LATER IF FUTURE TRENDS SUPPORT AN EVEN SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. JAMES ------------------------- 422 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY IS BACK TO FIRE WEATHER. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH. PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ACCORDING TO THE HOLLIS MESONET... AND THE DEWPOINT AT LUBBOCK IS CURRENTLY -1. VERY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY... AND WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL. EVEN BEING SOMEWHAT GENEROUS WITH THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS... RH VALUES FALL TO BELOW 20 PERCENT SOUTH OF A CHANDLER TO OKC TO ELK CITY LINE. WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING UP TO THAT LINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURE/RH VALUES LESS EXTREME IN THE NORTH. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TROUBLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM. CURRENT PROGS SHOW THE SURFACE DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THE BEST MOISTURE EAST. IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO WILL NOT BUY IN ON SPECIFIC SURFACE FEATURE POSITIONS YET... BUT WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY IF WE DO INDEED GET A STRONG SURFACE DRY PUSH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 34 56 29 / 0 5 0 0 HOBART OK 67 31 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 76 36 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 60 26 54 26 / 5 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 62 31 51 28 / 10 10 0 0 DURANT OK 73 41 59 32 / 5 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ037-OKZ044-OKZ045. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026- OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034- OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043- OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088- TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 24/26 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 932 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... RAPID MOISTURE RETURN ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MID 50 DEWPOINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. ONGOING MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED ...HOWEVER NEW 12Z NAM/RUC CATCHING UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS...ADVECTING MID TO UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA /WEST- CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP CONCERNING THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER WILL KEEP ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO MEETING 3 OF THE 4 CRITERIA WITH TEMPS...WINDS AND KBDI. NEXT CONCERN BECOMES THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES BEFORE THUNDERSTORM INITIATE. LATEST DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN AROUND 00Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS/FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN MUCAPES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE STORMS HOWEVER MAY PUSH JUST EAST OF CWA BEFORE REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK THIS MORNING AND MAY ADD SEVERE CHANCES TO HWO FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ALREADY UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM/FWF TO REFLECT HIGHER RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054- OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062- OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070- OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 12 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 6 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1000 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND 200MB RUC WIND/WINDSPEED ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TODAY...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX. WITH THE LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO ADJUST CLOUDS AND TEMPS. && .MARINE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE LAST NIGHT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE LIGHTER OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL KICK UP TO AROUND 9 FEET AT BUOY 020 FOR A FEW HOURS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...THE KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT 12Z REVEALED A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN FL020-040 WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THESE LLWS CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE CAMERON COUNTY BRO/HRL/PIL TERMINALS AND TO 15 KNOTS AT INLAND TERMINALS SUCH AS MFE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT AND BEGIN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING A SIX HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE VALLEY. NO CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006/ A 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS LATER TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS USHER IN AN AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JANUARY. THE ETA IS A LITTLE COOLER IN COMPARISON TO THE GFS FOR POST-FRONTAL HIGHS...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MINS. CONSIDERING THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE SURFACE HIGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS FAIRLY MILD WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. ALSO...FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE MERCURY TO MODERATE FAIRLY QUICKLY FOR THIS WEEKEND. FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THE FOG POTENTIAL UP FOR THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSER FOG WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES AND THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS PERSIST. SO FAR THIS MORNING...THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY SERIOUS FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. 500 MILLIBAR RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH DIGS STEADILY ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH USHERS THROUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE 500 MILLIBAR FLOW PATTERN RETURNS QUICKLY BACK TO INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST FOR NEXT WED AND THUR. THIS OVERALL PATTERN KEEPS ANY SERIOUS COLD AIR ADVECTION SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAIN OVERALL TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL ALSO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE FAST PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS FROM WEST TO EAST KEEPS A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN IN PLACE. THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FOR MONDAY AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ130. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO 61/69/VEGA tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1055 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 .UPDATE... LATEST VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS IOWA...ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS INDICATED BY THE 15Z RUC. LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS AND 15Z RUC MOVE DRY SLOT FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA BY 21Z. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR LESS CLOUDS ACROSS FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && DTJ .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERNS WERE PRIMARILY WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE MILD AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SHORT WAVE ADVANCING ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. 00Z 12JAN06 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR EXAMPLE...850MB TEMPERATURES WERE 8C AT KMSP AND 11C AT KDVN...WHICH GFS AND NAM INITIALIZED WELL. IN ADDITION...THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL BY THE GFS AND NAM. THE UKMET... ECMWF...GFS AND NAM HAD GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES NEXT 24-36HRS. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO OVERFALL DETAILS IN CURRENT DATA BASE. TODAY...YET ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...850MB TEMPERATURES OF 6C-8C WILL BE COMMON...WITH VALUES EVEN REACHING 10C FROM KLSE TO POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. PREFERRED THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEARS TO REFLECT MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...RAISED VALUES FOR LA CROSSE AREA AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. IN THESE LOCATIONS...RECORD HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50...SO ADDED NEAR RECORD WORDING TO TEXT OF THESE ZONES. TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL. FORCING APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FN CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB LAYERS. BASED ON THIS...OPTED TO NUDGE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UPWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH FN CONVERGENCE SIGNAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING FOR SUCH LOCATIONS AS KLSE. FRIDAY...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH Q-G CONVERGENCE EXITS DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED TREND OF ENDING PRECIPITATION AS PREVIOUS ARX FORECASTER HAD BEGUN. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUPPORTED ABUNDANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THUS EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THERE SHOULD BE A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH CENTER PART OF THE NATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE WITH DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE. IN FACT...BY 00Z 18JAN06 THE GFS DEPICTED A 989MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN... WHILE THE ECMWF HAD 1002MB LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DUE TO THESE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AND THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 340 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... BARELY ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYS AS PASSES OVRHD ERLY THIS MRNG. WNDS ARE COMING UP HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CAA TDA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THE CLDS WL CLR AS ADVERTISED. BOTH THE GFS/ETA BLOW THE LVL RH OUT BY MIDDAY OVR THE WRN HALF AT LEAST. THE RUC IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A LRG N/S DRY SLOT THRU CNTRL IA AT 18Z. RDGG BLDS AGRESSIVELY FOR THE WKEND WITH H8 TMPS ABV 10DEG SWRN IA SAT. PUSHED TMPS UPWRD A BIT MORE IN OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE FA...AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH STILL WITH A GOOD SW WND TO MIX. A MIXDOWN TMP IS THE LOWER 60S! PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR SUNDAY. BY MON THE NXT TROF IS APRCHG WITH THE ECMWF SHOVING MORE ENERGY TO THE S. HENCE THE GFS LOOKS TOO WOUND UP. STILL CAN NOT IGNORE THE CHCS FOR SNOW WITH THE THIS SYS WHATEVER THE SFC PTRN MAY LOOK LIKE. THIS SYS EXITS ERLY TUE WITH WRMG RETURNING ON WED...PUSHING TMPS BACK ABV NORMAL. ANOTHER SYS MAY BE IN THE MAKING NXT FRI AS FLOW REMAINS SORTA ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT TOO. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ MYERS ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 330 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES A STRONG PATTERN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS AND SOME RETURN OF GULF RH INTO THE AREA...A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MILD READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE TODAY EVEN WITH THE WIDESPREAD PCPN. WINDY AT TIMES TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TONIGHT...WITH MORE WINTER LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE FA...AND WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND PCPN...WE WENT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE. JUST HOW MUCH AND WHERE THIS WRAP AROUND PCPN OCCURS IS STILL IN DOUBT. LATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION TRENDS FROM HPC MORE OR LESS WENT ALONG WITH THE 00Z ETA...AND REMOVED THE SNOW THREAT OVER THE BLUEGRASS...BUT WE DO NOT AGREE. SO WE DECIDED TO GO WITH AROUND A INCH OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING FA'S TOO. A SECOND PROBLEM FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD IS THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. --21 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY) SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE ISSUES WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SATURDAY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SOLUTION...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF...AND 48 HR RUC. THE NAM12 HAS DROPPED UPPER LEVEL LOW TOO FAR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GULF STATES. WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER LOW END OF MOS WITH HIGHS SATURDAY...MOS CAN UNDERPLAY STRONG CAA. LIKED COOLER ETA MOS SUNDAY MORN LOWS...AND THEN USED MOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY HIGHS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PULLING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...WITH PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE MORNING...ENDING BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE AROUND A FEW TENTHS TO AN HALF OF AN INCH...MAINLY ACROSS THE LEX AREA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING BUT A FEW DEGREES...ALONG WITH LOW OVERCAST LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE 20S. RIDGING MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH WAA DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND A DECENT JUMP OF H85 TEMPS FROM -2 C SATURDAY NIGHT TO +3C OR 4C BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. --SCHOTT .IN THE EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) EXTENDED MODELS STILL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...LIKE A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z NCEP ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST. A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS...AND ADJUSTMENT TO POPS ON TUESDAY WITH CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. A NEW TREND OCCURRED IN THE TELECONNECTIONS TODAY WITH AO/NAO/PNA STILL SHOWING WARMER TREND THRU ABOUT THE NEXT TEN DAYS...THEN POSSIBLE SOME ACTUAL REAL WINTER AROUND THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH. ANOTHER INTERESTING CURVE WOULD BE A STRONGER AND MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET...POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK LA NINA WHICH HAS SET UP...USUALLY IT MEANS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL...BUT JUST SOMETHING EXTRA TO THINK ABOUT THRU THE REST OF THE WINTER SEASON. STRONG SW FLOW (WAA) MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND TAP GULF MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AN ISOLTD THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY..COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...TSTMS AND SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. WITH CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH ALOT OF DETAILS TO BE SETTLED...HAVE JUST MENTIONED RAIN/SNOW MIX IN ZONES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORN..WITH MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEAVING THE OH VALLEY TO THE EAST. DRIER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP WED AFTERNOON AND START TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. WSW OR SW FLOW WILL RUN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE EARLY WKEND WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +6C BY FRIDAY. --SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 410 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE TODAY AND LES POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WV IMAGERY...00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LVL TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS DOWNSTREAM FROM RDGING OVER THE WEST. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV WAS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO MO WHILE A MORE SHEARED NRN STREAM SHRTWV EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO CNTRL MN. ANOTHER WEAK SHEARED SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SASK. AT THE SFC(07Z)...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSE FROM LOW PRES OVER NE LK SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH NW WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST...UPSTREAM TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. COMBINATION OF QVECTOR CONV AND 700-600 FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE MN SHRTWV AND UPR LVL DIV WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JET INTO NRN ONTARIO SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION WITH BAND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM WRN WI INTO W UPR MI. HOWEVER...RADARS AND SFC OBS SHOWED LITTLE OR NO PCPN. WITH VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PER 02Z KSAW TAMDAR AND 00Z KGRB SNDGS...BETTER SATURATION LAGGED FARTHER TO THE WEST INTO THE COLDER AIR. KMQT VAD WND PRFL INDICATED HGT OF LOWEST RETURNS LOWERING FROM 15K TO 7K FT BTWN 06Z-08Z. TODAY...BOTH THE GFS AND 00Z/06Z NAM CONTINUED TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.10 INCH OVER THE WEST BY 12Z AND OVER MUCH OF CNTRL UPR MI BY 18Z. GIVEN DECENT MDLS FCST OF MODERATE MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GOING SLGT CHANCE/PATCHY COVERAGE STILL SEEMS ON TRACK. SINCE ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD BE WEAK...LEAVING POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE SFC TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID 30S. ALSO...GIVEN DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...IF 900-750 MB LYR REMAINS DRY...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME -FZDZ INLAND. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS FCST TO SLIDE FROM THE W CWA TO THE E BTWN 09Z-18Z. WITH DRYING IN THE -8C TO -10C LYR...SOME -FZDZ/-DZ WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LVL LAKE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW. TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF TRAILING SASK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES AND CAA EVENTUALLY DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C (MDL CONSENSUS) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK LES AND MINIMIZE -FZDZ POTENTIAL. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB AN INCH. MAINLY 330 FLOW SHOULD FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD WITH MORE FAVORABLE FETCH LENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE H8 THERMAL TROF. SAT...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...SIDED WITH THE GFS WHICH FCSTS A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE H8 THERMAL TROF AND LATER BACKING OF LOW LVL FLOW. SO...EXPECT SOME WEAK LES TO LINGER OVER THE E HLF IN THE MORNING WITH MAINLY FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS A TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE WRN CONUS AND A RDG BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY. THE RESULTING WAA PATTERN MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WRN LAKES...PER GFS 290K ISENTROPIC PROGS. WHILE THE GFS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS AGAIN WITH THE QPF WITH DRY LOW LVL ESE FLOW FROM NRN ONTARIO RDG...MENTION OF SLGT -SN CHANCE SEEMS APPROPRIATE SINCE OTHER GLBL MDLS (UKMET/CANADIAN) ALSO HINT AT MOISTURE BAND MOVING INTO THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 847 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT WIND GUSTS TO JUST BELOW WIND ADV CRITERIA TODAY IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO AOA 43 MPH AT THE MOMENT AND FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON./REV .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BARELY ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYS AS PASSES OVRHD ERLY THIS MRNG. WNDS ARE COMING UP HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CAA TDA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THE CLDS WL CLR AS ADVERTISED. BOTH THE GFS/ETA BLOW THE LVL RH OUT BY MIDDAY OVR THE WRN HALF AT LEAST. THE RUC IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A LRG N/S DRY SLOT THRU CNTRL IA AT 18Z. RDGG BLDS AGRESSIVELY FOR THE WKEND WITH H8 TMPS ABV 10DEG SWRN IA SAT. PUSHED TMPS UPWRD A BIT MORE IN OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE FA...AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH STILL WITH A GOOD SW WND TO MIX. A MIXDOWN TMP IS THE LOWER 60S! PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR SUNDAY. BY MON THE NXT TROF IS APRCHG WITH THE ECMWF SHOVING MORE ENERGY TO THE S. HENCE THE GFS LOOKS TOO WOUND UP. STILL CAN NOT IGNORE THE CHCS FOR SNOW WITH THE THIS SYS WHATEVER THE SFC PTRN MAY LOOK LIKE. THIS SYS EXITS ERLY TUE WITH WRMG RETURNING ON WED...PUSHING TMPS BACK ABV NORMAL. ANOTHER SYS MAY BE IN THE MAKING NXT FRI AS FLOW REMAINS SORTA ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT TOO. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ MYERS/REV ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 952 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 .UPDATE... COLDER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHEAST MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED. AS OF 15Z...RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDED FROM KSTL TO KUNO. RUC TAKES THE 925 MB MINUS 2 ISOTHERM ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. THIS FORECAST...ALONG WITH 06Z ETA BUFKIT DATA...INDICATES CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BY 00Z. EVEN SO...ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO JUST A SLUSHY COATING ON THE GRASS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ONGOING CONVECTION IS MAINLY ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE 00Z MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON IT...TRANSITIONING THE NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT WAS OVER WRN PTNS MO-AR...INTO THE ONGOING ELEVATED SCENARIO ACCURATELY. SAID MODELS RACE THE FRONT THRU EARLY THIS AM...AND THE CONVECTION WITH IT...AS EWARD MIGRATING 100+ KT JET IN THE PLAINS PUSHES UPPER LOW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WL CAUSE A MOMENTARY PAUSE OR AT LEAST LULL IN PCPN CHANCES...UNTIL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD BY UPPER LOW. THAT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS PM AND INTO TONIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/NAM NOW HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. LOWER THERMO PROFILE SUGGESTS FALLING SNOW WL MELT THIS PM...BUT AS SURFACE TEMPS COOL INTO 30S TONIGHT...WL MAINTAIN RA OR SN MENTION. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ABOUT THE BEST QPF THAT IS SQUEEZED OUT IS A TENTH/INCH...SO WE DON'T THINK WE ARE TALKING APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS (>1") EVEN IN THE BEST SCENARIO. THAT LOW THEN PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. THE RESULT WL BE A MODERATING AIR MASS WORKING IN WEST-TO-EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY SUNDAY. THAT WL BE JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE STILL HONING IN ON THE DETAILS...BUT THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN/FORECAST IS FOR WAA RAIN CHANCES SUN NIGHT-MON...THEN A CONVECTIVE THREAT W/FROPA MON NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL/WAKE LOW AND POTENTIALLY 2NDARY LOW PCPN CHANCES TUE-TUE NIGHT. WE WL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE/COLLABORATIVE STRATEGY FORECAST GIVEN THE MODELS LOOSE GRIP ON THE PARTICULARS...WITH THE NET RESULT BEING ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO THIS TIME FRAME. FINALLY THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST FINISHES OUT DRY AND SEASONAL. A BLEND OF MOS WAS USED IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH TRANSITIONED WELL INTO THE NEW 00Z MEX MOS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. && PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. $$ MY/DH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 545 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... && SHORT TERM CONCERN FOCUSES ON THE EROSION ON THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE QUESTIONS ARE HOW WARM WILL IT GET OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BACK EDGE OF THE CLEARING CURRENTLY IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF 925 MB RIDGE AXIS IN WRN SD. WHILE LOTS OF HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WITH IN STRATUS...EXPECT MOST OF THIS AREA TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST AND FILL IN BY SUNRISE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE IN CENTRAL SD WHERE THIS CLEARING COULD EXPAND WEST AS WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS BEGINS TO ERODE. SO USING THE 925 MB RIDGE AXIS...HAVE GONE WITH A MUCH SLOWER CLEARING THAN SUGGESTED BY EITHER NAM AND GFS. HAVE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS REACHING I29 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON AND NOT CLEARING SW MN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0C...THIS WILL REALLY INHIBIT TEMPS TODAY AND HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEAR 30 IN SW MN AND MID 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. ADD LIGHT WINDS IN AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RADIATION NIGHT. THE JAMES VALLEY WILL HAVE TEMPS FALL RAPIDLY EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL FAIRLY STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG AND EAST OF I29 WITH 20S IN THE WEST. THIS WILL MEAN A STRONG INVERSION BEING ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY ALONG AND EAST OF I29. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS BACKING WINDS TO THE SE AND EXCEPT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER SUNSHINE. DESPITE VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS...AM SKEPTICAL THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK 40 IN SW MN ESP SINCE THERE IS STILL SNOWCOVER. EVEN IN MUCH OF NW IA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SD...WILL NOT CLIMB BEYOND LOWER 40S. WARMEST TEMPS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE MO RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW AND WINDS MAY BE S OR EVEN SW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH FAIRLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...KEPT TEMPS IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL WARMING EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AROUND MML. BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE ON CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLOW WILL BE INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE EAST AND BOTH NAM AND GFS HINT COOLER AIR MAY MOVE SOUTH. IN ADDITION... MUCH DENSER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AGAIN SEVERELY LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...ESP NORTH OF I90 AND KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AGAIN...THE MO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE WARMEST BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. CYCLONE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE INTO ERN SD BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMP GRADIENT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE INVERTED TORUGH...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY BE BEHIND THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOXCIATE WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE REACHES THE WRN CWA BY 06Z SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. 700 MB TEMP GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN ERN SD FOR MUCH OF MONDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF I29 AND RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST...SNOW MAY MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME DURATION LOOKS TO BE SHORTER SO KEPT POPS 30-40 IN MUCH OF NW IA. WITH CLOUDS...NRLY FLOW AND PRECIP...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RISE AROUND 5 DEGREES ON MONDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... AS SUSPECTED ERYR ETA TOO FAST ON CLRNG OF LO CLDS...IN FSCT RH INITIALIZED VERY POORLY ON 06Z RUN. RUC HAS HAD BETTR HANDL ON FIRST FEW HRS BUT KEEPS CLDS IN TOO LONG...APPARENTLY NOT HANDLNG SUBSDNCE FACTOR WELL. RESULT ID THAT LO CLDS SHUD BE CLEARING RPDLY FROM THE N/NW AS ETA/NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTG...JUST NOT NEARLY AS SOON DUE TO POOR HANDLNG OF INITIAL SHLW MOITR FIELD. MVFR CIGS SHUD BREAK MAIONLY FROM THE NW OVER FCST AREA 14Z-18Z AND THEREAFTR NO AVIATION PRBLMS EXPCTD THRU 14/12Z. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. $$ SCHUMACHER/WILLIAMS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 930 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... FCST IN FINE SHAPE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. VIS SAT PIC SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO FA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...BUT QUICK LOOK OUT THE WINDOW STILL WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY FOR CPV AND POINTS EAST. OTHERWISE...BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/ALB AND LOCAL RUC 40 SOUNDINGS WL INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACRS CPV AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. FEEL BTV WL REACH AROUND 55F TODAY BASED ON MIXING FROM 85H AND 925H TEMPS NEAR 10C. REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. WL CONT TO MONITOR 12Z DATA COMING INTO OUR OFFICE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FLOOD THREAT CONTS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON INCREASED QPF FROM MODELS AND THE SNOW MELT AND POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. WL RUN SITE SPECIFIC MODEL FOR SEVERAL RIVERS WITH 12Z DATA TO SEE TIMING OF RIVER CRESTS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. ALL GAUGES ATTM STILL BELOW ACTION LVL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... PRIMARY WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING SHORT TERM PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL/HYDRO CONCERNS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP CHANGE TO COLDER TEMPS/SNOWFALL SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP INDICATING MAINLY CLR SKIES ACROSS REGION DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS W/PATCHY DENSE FOG IN MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS AS MEAN SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT SFC/ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS AREA. TEMPS WIDELY VARIED...RANGING IN THE L/M 20S IN AREAS THAT HAVE DECOUPLED...TO AROUND 40 IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT MIXING. EXPECT CLR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIRST HALF OF DAY ALL AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER RH PUSHING INTO NY ZONES BY AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE ONLY SHALLOW BNDRY LYR MIXING TO 1-1.5K FT...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM CONSIDERABLY...WITH MEAN VALUES RANGING FROM THE U40S TO MID 50S AREA WIDE (SLTLY LOWER NE KINGDOM). TRANSITION TO INCLEMENT CONDS TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPENING MERIDIONAL TROUGH AND ASSOC OHIO VLY SFC LOW MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS REGION. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED FCSTS IDEA OF INCREASING POPS FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. BNDRY LYR TEMPS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AREA WIDE. BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ADVANCEMENT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA AS SFC ENERGY BECOMES TRANSFERRED TO NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST. DESPITE 00Z ETA IDEA OF CLOSING OFF UPPER ENERGY FAR SOUTH OF REGION...LATEST OP RUNS OF GFS/GEM/EURO MAINTAIN GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH SFC/UPPER FEATURES AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THESE SOLNS. IMPRESSIVE SOUTHEASTERLY LL JET OF 50-60KT TO SET UP ACROSS AREA DURING DAY AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ..WHICH WILL ACT TO TRANSPORT DEEP SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME NE INTO REGION. INDEED...WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1 INCH RANGE ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFT/DYNAMICS...ARGUMENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL STILL APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN IDEA OF WIND BACKING SHARPLY TO NORTHERLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NY...AND ACROSS VT EARLY TO MID EVENING AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND SFC FRONT. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HVY SNOWFALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND BNDRY...AS IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION/LIFT SET UP ACROSS AREA...ESP EAST. SNOWS TO THEN LIGHTEN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO SUNDAY...ESP NORTHERN AREAS AS DEEP COLUMNAR MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE LOW TO MID LVL CONVERGENCE. AT THIS TIME...NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SEVERAL INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AFTER ALL SAID AND DONE. OTHER THAN LINGERING SHSN NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...SENSIBLE WX ACQUIESCES AS MEAN RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO REGION. WILL HIGHLIGHT COLD TEMPS AND SKIES GENERALLY BECOMING PC ACROSS NRN NY. THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BY MONDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE ABRUPT CHANGES TO COLDER CONDS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MEAN PATTERN ACROSS CONUS REMAINS ONE OF ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW...WITH ANY ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TRAPPED FAR TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO NEXT SYSTEM TAKING A TRACK WELL NW OF FA...AND MILDER ABV NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING IN EARNEST DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. INHERITED FCST OF INCREASING CHCS OF RAIN LATER TUE INTO WED STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...W/PERHAPS SOME CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW/SHSN AT TAIL END OF PRECIP WED NT. THEN MAINLY DRY THU/FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...AND MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S...SOME 10 DEG ABV NORMAL. AVIATION... RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VSBY HAVE BEEN NOTED AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE FA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS /NAM IN PARTICULAR/ DOES NOT ADEQUATELY WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...LIKELY BECAUSE OF INFLUENCE OF MODEL SNOW COVER. WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MIXING DEPTH UNDERDONE...HAVE INCREASED WINDS AT THE TAF SITES OVER MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SLY TO SWLY 10G20KT DURING THE MID-DAY HOURS AS SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY INCR ACROSS THE FA WITH SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW DURING FRI AFTN. RAPID DECREASE IN CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z SAT WITH ONSET OF -RA OVERSPREADING THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AREA TERMINALS FROM SW-NE BETWEEN 09-12Z SAT. HYDROLOGY... OF CONCERN OVER COURSE OF NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS FA. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.75 INCHES WILL ACT TO ENHANCE SNOWMELT RATES ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MEAN 24 AVG TEMPS FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM 40-45 DEG ..WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT TO WEAKEN EXISTING ICE COVER ON NORTHERN TRIBUTARIES. THUS RISES TO BANKFULL OR NEAR FLOOD ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE ABOVE PERIOD...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL THREAT OF BREAKUP ICE JAMS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERWAYS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ002>012-016>019 FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY. NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ028>031-034-035 FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...TABER vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1010 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... MAIN EARLY CONCERNS WITH TIMING OF PREFRONTAL SHRA/TSRA AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DEGREE OF INTENSITY/LOCATION WITH ANY NEW LEADING EDGE CONVECTION LATE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL AS SEEN VIA THE EARLIER WRF AND LATEST RUC/NAM WHICH PUTS MAJORITY ACROSS THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE LACKING GIVEN CLOUDS PLUS FOG TO START OUT EAST...AND QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS...APPEARS WILL NEED DYNAMICS/UPPER DIVERGENCE TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE FEATURES LATER ON. FORECAST NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E WEST/SOUTH WOULD INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WESTERN SLOPES MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO NC WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS BETTER. THEREFORE PLAN TO SLOW DOWN HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE MAJORITY NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 19-21Z FOR NOW. WILL KEEP GOING SPS BUT UPDATE AND TRIM BACK SVR MENTION TO MAINLY THE SE THIRD WHERE CONVECTION MAY TRY AND REDEVELOP/JUMP TO BY THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT GIVEN SLOW START PER FOG/DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SUPPORTED BY SLIGHTLY LOWER 12Z THICKNESS VALUES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY BUT LIKELY A BIT AFTER FOG ACROSS THE SE STARTS TO MIX OUT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AS WILL AWAIT NEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE UPGRADING CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH OR ADDING ANY WINTRY ADVISORIES FOR LATE TNGT-SAT NGT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 649 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) AVIATION... LIFR FOG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS SHALLOW AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO MVFR CEILINGS BY 16Z. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 00Z TONIGHT AND TO ROA...LYH AND DAN BEFORE 06Z. ANY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 502 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREA AND THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 333 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z AND MOVE TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. A FEW WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT...THEN EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS. SPC HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR PORTIONS OF CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TONIGHT WITH THE NAM DIGGING THE CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...WITH THE GFS CLOSING IT OFF OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH GFS POSITION. THIS MEANS THE BEST JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ARE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA) 00-06Z TONIGHT. THE DEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND Q-VECTOR FORCING ALSO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LOWER IN THE EAST AND GO BACK UP IN THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 50-70 KNOT 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...IN THE +4 TO +7 RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS CROSS SECTIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE RIDGES SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WINDS WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IS FROM 18Z SAT UNTIL 18Z SUN AFTER THE UPPER LOW GOES BY. COLD AIR COMES IN AFTER 06Z...WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR WHEN SNOW BEGINS IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE. STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF ON THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS ON THE 00Z THAN THE 18Z RUN. IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE UPPER LOW RANGE SHOULD BE IN THE .25 TO 50 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. SO NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO SNOW AMOUNTS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS SPEEDS ACROSS THE CWA. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE EAST. VISIBILITIES AT KLYH AND KDAN HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING IN THE WEST UNITED WITH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMITED FOG. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED VFR/MVFR WITH SCT IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z. A LINE OF IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KICK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VAZ007-009>017 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY. NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ001-002-018 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY. WV...NONE. && $$ JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 315 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006 ...WILL INCLUDE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SAT FOR ALL ZONES... .SYNOPSIS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SQUALL LINE ~50 NM WIDE ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ~30-35 KT THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL GA EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GOMEX. OVERALL LINE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE BROKEN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW PRE-SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS MOVING EWD WHILE A SMALL DRY DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 70-75 DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. SB CAPES FROM LAPS INDICATE AROUND 400-600 IN SE GA AND 600-1000 IN NE FL. .SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW BULK OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING NWD NEXT 12 HRS BUT STILL STRONG INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TOR WATCH #18 IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD IF TRENDS AND CONVECTION HOLD UP. THINK FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AN ALMA-LIVE OAK LINE BY 22-00Z AND WILL BE EXITING OUR SE ZONES AND MARINE AREA BY 06Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LIMITED CAPE ALOFT ON MODEL AND UPPER SOUNDINGS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL BUT WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SOME HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. MODIFYING 18Z JAX YIELDS CAPE ~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fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 244 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006 .SYNOPSIS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SQUALL LINE ~50 NM WIDE ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ~30-35 KT THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL GA EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GOMEX. OVERALL LINE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE BROKEN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW PRE-SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS MOVING EWD WHILE A SMALL DRY DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 70-75 DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. SB CAPES FROM LAPS INDICATE AROUND 400-600 IN SE GA AND 600-1000 IN NE FL. .SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW BULK OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING NWD NEXT 12 HRS BUT STILL STRONG INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TOR WATCH #18 IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD IF TRENDS AND CONVECTION HOLD UP. THINK FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AN ALMA-LIVE OAK LINE BY 22-00Z AND WILL BE EXITING OUR SE ZONES AND MARINE AREA BY 06Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LIMITED CAPE ALOFT ON MODEL AND UPPER SOUNDINGS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL BUT WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SOME HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. MODIFYING 18Z JAX YIELDS CAPE ~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fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 243 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006 ...COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY... .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT POISED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUING TO RISE. AS EVIDENCE...DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GPSMET PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE POOLING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASED H7-H5 OMEGA VALUES. RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...MAINLY OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WHERE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE IS FAVORED. EXPECT INCREASED COVERAGE AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODESTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FOR THE EVENING...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE...DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS EVEN GREATER COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST ...TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PENINSULA BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...A DISTINCTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW TOMORROW...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITH AROUND 30 KNOT GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH 850 MB. EXPECT STRONG GUSTS ACCORDINGLY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR COASTAL SITES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST OVER THE GULF ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTH WEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THEN...GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO EXPECT COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN INTO THE 30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING IN PROTECTED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IF MAV GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...HOWEVER MET MOS IS COMING A FEW DEGREES WARMER BY THEN...INDICATING SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BE AT WORK. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING FROST FOR NOW. FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING BY MONDAY. TEMPS RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL REBOUND BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LIMITED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE...STRONG WINDS TO START TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN ALL WATERS. WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO MINIMIAL GALE FORCE AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSH THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEW POINTS WILL DROP RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO DIP RELATIVE HUMIDITIE JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR 15 MPH WINDS...NOT TO MENTION STRONG GUSTS...THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. RH'S WILL BE FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY AS WELL AND A WATCH/WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY THEN AS WELL. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 58 66 43 65 / 60 0 0 0 FORT LAUDERDALE 61 71 42 69 / 60 0 0 0 MIAMI 61 69 45 70 / 50 10 0 0 NAPLES 59 64 45 66 / 50 0 0 5 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. && $$ CHRISTENSEN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION...CAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK TROUGH HEADING SOUTH TOWARD STATE YET THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LVL ST HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WEST...WITH SOME EROSION ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT GENERALLY HOLDING INTACT AS IT ADVECTS SE WITH THE FLOW. THUS...SKIES WILL BE BKN-OVC EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD FIELD HEADS SE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL BREAKS WITH FINAL DISSIPATION AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST OF AREA. HIGHS TRIMMED BACK ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN A MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS REMAINING STIFF THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH OVERALL JUST BELOW ADV LEVELS./REV .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT WIND GUSTS TO JUST BELOW WIND ADV CRITERIA TODAY IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO AOA 43 MPH AT THE MOMENT AND FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON./REV BARELY ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYS AS PASSES OVRHD ERLY THIS MRNG. WNDS ARE COMING UP HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CAA TDA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THE CLDS WL CLR AS ADVERTISED. BOTH THE GFS/ETA BLOW THE LVL RH OUT BY MIDDAY OVR THE WRN HALF AT LEAST. THE RUC IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A LRG N/S DRY SLOT THRU CNTRL IA AT 18Z. RDGG BLDS AGRESSIVELY FOR THE WKEND WITH H8 TMPS ABV 10DEG SWRN IA SAT. PUSHED TMPS UPWRD A BIT MORE IN OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE FA...AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH STILL WITH A GOOD SW WND TO MIX. A MIXDOWN TMP IS THE LOWER 60S! PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR SUNDAY. BY MON THE NXT TROF IS APRCHG WITH THE ECMWF SHOVING MORE ENERGY TO THE S. HENCE THE GFS LOOKS TOO WOUND UP. STILL CAN NOT IGNORE THE CHCS FOR SNOW WITH THE THIS SYS WHATEVER THE SFC PTRN MAY LOOK LIKE. THIS SYS EXITS ERLY TUE WITH WRMG RETURNING ON WED...PUSHING TMPS BACK ABV NORMAL. ANOTHER SYS MAY BE IN THE MAKING NXT FRI AS FLOW REMAINS SORTA ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT TOO. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ MYERS/REV ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 255 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... IN THE NEAR TERM...MAIN CONCERN IS THE AREA OF SNOW WRAPPING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. RELIED PRIMARILY ON RUC MODEL QPF AND MEAN RH FOR THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIP. BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE VICINITY OF EVV/HOP LINE AT 06Z. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FAIRLY STEADY SNOW...STILL THINK HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA /2 INCHES/. INITIALLY WARM GROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS WILL RESULT IN A 10 TO 1 RATIO AT BEST. GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL SHOW UP TO 1.5 INCH SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE WHITE RIVER OF SW INDIANA. OVER SE MISSOURI...NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES THIS EVENING AS THE PRECIP IS ALREADY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COLDEST IN THE FAR WEST /POPLAR BLUFF AREA/...WHERE CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDINESS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS /IN THE 50S/ AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. ANOTHER VERY ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE COMPLEX THAN THE PAST FEW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT. IT APPEARS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT IT. A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. AGAIN...THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF GUIDANCE. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER WEST. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL THAT VERIFIES...SENSIBLE WEATHER COULD RANGE FROM SNOW TO THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. $$ MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 441 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... SFC LO CENTERED OVER NRN INDIANA ATTM WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEAR KIND INTO CNTRL KY AND TN. INITIAL BAND OF -SHRA HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN FCST AREA ASSOCD WITH NOSE OF 50KT 850 LLJ AND CONSEQUENT LO LVL CONV AXIS. SCT -SHRA NOW REDVLPG AND MOVING INTO FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF APPCHG COLD FRONT. TEMPS REMAINED MILD THIS AFTN...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WHERE THE SUN HAD GOTTEN OUT EARLIER TODAY ACRS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA...TEMPS WERE AROUND 60. INTENSIFYING SFC LO WILL TRACK N/E...MOVING INTO CNTRL NY BY SAT MRNG. COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACRS FCST AREA DURING EVNG HOURS WITH -SHRA CONTINUING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM THIS EVNG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF TSTM ACTIVITY FOR LAST SVRL HOURS HAS BEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO REGION BEHIND FROPA LATE THIS EVNG...WITH PCPN CHANGING TO SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. 1300M 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUE APPEARS TO BE DIVIDING LINE FROM RAIN TO SNOW THIS AFTN ACRS ILLINOIS. 12Z GFS/18Z RUC BOTH INDCG 1300M LINE WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 06Z-11Z. INFLUENCE OF MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS CNTRL/EASTERN ILLINOIS ATTM MAY ENHANCE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN THICKNESS ALONE...AND HAVE INDICATED A CHANGE IN WESTERN FCST AREA BEGINNING AROUND 05Z. PCPN OVER ENTIRE FCST AREA SHOULD BE SNOW BY 09-10Z. EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO ERLY SAT...AS MID LVL DEFOMRATION AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACRS FCST AREA. CONSIDERED ISSUING A SNOW ADV FOR LATE TONIGHT AS 2 INCHES TRIGGERS AN ADV. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHED DUE TO RECENT WARM WEATHER WHICH HAS KEPT SOIL TEMPS UP AS OF LATE IN U30S/L40S. EXPECT TO SEE COATING ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH A SLUSHY MIX ON ROADS. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL NOT ISSUE A SNOW ADV ATTM. AS 850 LOW LIFTS EAST OF REGION AFT MIDNIGHT...STRONG NRLY 50KT LLJ WILL MOVE INTO FCST AREA...WITH 40KT WINDS ONLY ABOUT A 1000FT OFF THE GROUND. OBS OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VLY ASSOCD WITH THIS LLJ INDCG SUSTAINED GENERALLY IN 20-30MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40MPH OVER LAST SVRL HOURS. EXPECTING WINDS SIMILAR TO THESE VALUES DVLPG OVER FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT. ALSO CONTEMPLATED A WIND ADV AS THESE VALUES WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO ADV CRIT...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF FCST FOR TIME BEING. HAVE INSTEAD ISSUED AN SPS TO MENTION STRONG WINDS AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS AND POTENTIAL SNOW CLOSELY THIS EVNG...AS EVOLVING CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO ADV FOR SNOW OR WIND. WINDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MRNG HOURS...WITH ENTIRE FCST AREA DRY BY ERLY AFTN. MUCH OF FCST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ALL DAY SAT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER AIR WORKING INTO BNDRY LYR BY LATE AFTN MAY ALLOW SC DECK TO BREAK UP ACRS NRN KY AND INTO TRI STATE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR ELSEWHERE DURING EVNG HOURS AS SFC HI RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION. CLOUDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN DAY SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF APPCHG WARM FRONT. 12Z GFS IN PARTICULAR TRYING TO SPIT OUT -SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT TOWARDS DAWN MON...BUT FEEL DRY E/SE DOWNSLOPE FLO COMBINED WITH DEWPTS IN L20S WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF FCST AREA UNTIL DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MON. TEMPS...SHOULD SEE A QUICK 10 DEG DROP TONIGHT WITH FROPA...THEN TEMPS WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARDS L/M30S BY ERLY MRNG. TRENDED TOWARDS FWC GUID TONIGHT AS MAV LOOKED A LITTLE COOL. TOOK SPLIT OF COOLER MAV AND WARMER MET SAT...THEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO MAV GUID FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. WITH 850 CAA AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF DAY SAT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEG DIURNAL SPREAD BTWN TONIGHT AND SAT AFTN. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORM LVLS BY SUNDAY. RYAN && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 0Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER. FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS. TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. FRANKS && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 100 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... SW SFC WINDS WERE GUSTING OVER 20 KTS...AND IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AT KILN NEAR NOSE OF LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH 23Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VISIBLITIES. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND PCPN TYPE METHODS...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW 05Z TO 09Z NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN FLURRIES 07Z TO 12Z. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR/OVER 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1202 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 .UPDATE...THINKING AHEAD FOR FIRE WEATHER PLANNING...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A NOON ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANTICIPATING THAT SOME AGENCIES MAY NEED TIME TO PREPARE BEFORE THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH PRESSURES LOWERING RAPIDLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL TO MIX 40 MPH GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY EXCEEDING 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...THEN...COULD BE THE NEXT DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AS ALL PARAMETERS MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006) UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. THE NAM/ETA INITIALIZED BEST ON BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS...AND SUGGESTS SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN DIRECTION. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 20S OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA. RUC/GFS BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTER NORTH TEXAS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE JUDGING BY POTENTIAL FOR DRY MIXING ON THE AMARILLO 12Z SOUNDING AND LOOKING AT CURRENT DEWPOINT OBS IN THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MEAN HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. FIRE SPREAD INDICES COME VERY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME CATEGORY...BUT MAINLY WILL STAY IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TODAY AS VERY HIGH...EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 27 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 58 28 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 59 29 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 55 24 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 53 26 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 57 31 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011- OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019- OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027- OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035- OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043- OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014- OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034- OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038. TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ087-TXZ088. && $$ BURKE ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 .UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. THE NAM/ETA INITIALIZED BEST ON BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS...AND SUGGESTS SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN DIRECTION. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 20S OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA. RUC/GFS BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTER NORTH TEXAS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE JUDGING BY POTENTIAL FOR DRY MIXING ON THE AMARILLO 12Z SOUNDING AND LOOKING AT CURRENT DEWPOINT OBS IN THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MEAN HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS. FIRE SPREAD INDICES COME VERY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME CATEGORY...BUT MAINLY WILL STAY IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TODAY AS VERY HIGH...EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 27 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 58 28 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 59 29 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 55 24 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 53 26 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 57 31 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ BURKE ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1241 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006 .AVIATION... LIFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT LYH AND WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 19Z TO SEE MIX OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS IF NOT LONGER. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR/OCNL MVFR TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS AS AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF VFR/IFR BETWEEN 22Z AND MIDNIGHT BEFORE FRONT SLIDES THRU. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE PRECIP WITH UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SWING SE BY MORNING. THINK THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN/SNOW WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE BLF/LWB REGION SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ELSW DRY SAT WITH SLOW IMPROVING CEILINGS TO LOW END VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1010 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... MAIN EARLY CONCERNS WITH TIMING OF PREFRONTAL SHRA/TSRA AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DEGREE OF INTENSITY/LOCATION WITH ANY NEW LEADING EDGE CONVECTION LATE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL AS SEEN VIA THE EARLIER WRF AND LATEST RUC/NAM WHICH PUTS MAJORITY ACROSS THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE LACKING GIVEN CLOUDS PLUS FOG TO START OUT EAST...AND QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS...APPEARS WILL NEED DYNAMICS/UPPER DIVERGENCE TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE FEATURES LATER ON. FORECAST NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER THETA-E WEST/SOUTH WOULD INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WESTERN SLOPES MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO NC WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS BETTER. THEREFORE PLAN TO SLOW DOWN HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE MAJORITY NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 19-21Z FOR NOW. WILL KEEP GOING SPS BUT UPDATE AND TRIM BACK SVR MENTION TO MAINLY THE SE THIRD WHERE CONVECTION MAY TRY AND REDEVELOP/JUMP TO BY THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT GIVEN SLOW START PER FOG/DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SUPPORTED BY SLIGHTLY LOWER 12Z THICKNESS VALUES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY BUT LIKELY A BIT AFTER FOG ACROSS THE SE STARTS TO MIX OUT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AS WILL AWAIT NEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE UPGRADING CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH OR ADDING ANY WINTRY ADVISORIES FOR LATE TNGT-SAT NGT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 649 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) AVIATION... LIFR FOG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS SHALLOW AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO MVFR CEILINGS BY 16Z. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 00Z TONIGHT AND TO ROA...LYH AND DAN BEFORE 06Z. ANY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 502 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREA AND THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 333 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z AND MOVE TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. A FEW WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT...THEN EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS. SPC HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR PORTIONS OF CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TONIGHT WITH THE NAM DIGGING THE CLOSED LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...WITH THE GFS CLOSING IT OFF OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH GFS POSITION. THIS MEANS THE BEST JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ARE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA) 00-06Z TONIGHT. THE DEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND Q-VECTOR FORCING ALSO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LOWER IN THE EAST AND GO BACK UP IN THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 50-70 KNOT 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...IN THE +4 TO +7 RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS CROSS SECTIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE RIDGES SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WINDS WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IS FROM 18Z SAT UNTIL 18Z SUN AFTER THE UPPER LOW GOES BY. COLD AIR COMES IN AFTER 06Z...WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR WHEN SNOW BEGINS IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE. STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF ON THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS ON THE 00Z THAN THE 18Z RUN. IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE UPPER LOW RANGE SHOULD BE IN THE .25 TO 50 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. SO NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO SNOW AMOUNTS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS SPEEDS ACROSS THE CWA. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE EAST. VISIBILITIES AT KLYH AND KDAN HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING IN THE WEST UNITED WITH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMITED FOG. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED VFR/MVFR WITH SCT IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z. A LINE OF IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KICK IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VAZ007-009>017 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY. NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ001-002-018 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY. WV...NONE. && $$ JH va