FXUS66 KPDT 042143
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OREGON
242 PM PDT TUE MAY 4 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS 
INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM AND 
THEN GO EVERY WHICH WAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR A WHILE AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WEAK 
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA.  THE NEW MESOETA MODEL DELAYED THE WIND MAX 
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS AND THEREBY DELAYING THE BLOWING DUST UNTIL THIS 
EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT 
SHOULD STAY THAT WAY UNTIL IT GETS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS 
EVENING. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT IT 
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS 
WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT NOW 
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN 
TO REBOUND ON THURSDAY. JACOBSON


.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS 
IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A CUT-OFF 
LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF 130W. OVER OUR AREA...WEAK 
RIDGING WILL HOLD ON FOR FRIDAY AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT 
CHANCE ALONG CASCADE CREST AND BLUES. A WEAK WAVE DIGGING INTO THE 
RIDGE WILL STALL ALONG THE CASCADES INTO SATURDAY. AS A 
RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED ALONG THE CREST. THOUGHT 
ABOUT INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER CENTRAL OR AND 
BLUES TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. LIFTED INDICES WERE 
HOVERING BETWEEN -1 TO -2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM CONCERNED THE 
LACK OF DYNAMICS COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE INSTABILITY. 
MODELS DEPICT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND CUT-OFF 
LOW...MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. BUMPED POPS TO SLIGHT 
ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. 
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS THE NEW WORKWEEK BEGINS...FORECAST IS 
CARRYING AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DRY WORDING IN THE 
BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR CLIMO WITH A COOLING TREND 
BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE BRINGS INCREASED 
CLOUDS AND SUBTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION. MYERS



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PENDLETON (AIRPORT) 42 66 40 68 / 10 05 05 05 
WALLA WALLA         46 70 42 72 / 10 05 10 10 
TRI-CITIES          44 73 41 75 / 05 05 05 05 
YAKIMA              37 69 36 71 / 10 05 10 10 
&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...ORZ044 AND 045. BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8PM FOR THE LOWER 
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
WA...WAZ026...27...28...AND 029. BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM UNTIL 
8PM FOR YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS...THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND 
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.

$$
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