PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY SEP 13 2001

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2001

EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL AND ANOMALIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL THROUGH OCTOBER SO NO ENSO-RELATED
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
NONE OF THE TOOLS PROVIDE RELIABLE GUIDANCE FOR A PERIOD AS SHORT AS A MONTH
- ESPECIALLY WHEN THIS MONTH IS IN THE FALL. EVEN OCN HAS ALMOST NO SKILL FOR
TEMPERATURE IN LATE FALL. THE SITUATION IS EXEMPLIFIED BY CCA THAT DID NOT
HAVE A SINGLE STATION PASS THE SKILL THRESHOLD OF 0.3 CORRELATION. 
WE CONSULTED CCA OCN CMP AND CAS. THE LATTER TOOL IS BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE
AND OCTOBER IS AT THE END OF THE SEASONAL WINDOW TO PLAY THIS TOOL. 
HOWEVER WE JUDGED THE INITIAL TO BE WEAK AND DID NOT USE CAS. AS A FIRST 
GUESS FOR OCTOBER WE TOOK THE SON SEASONAL FORECAST ISSUED IN AUG 2001.  
THE ONLY SIGNALS - AND THEY ARE WEAK - FOR THE OCTOBER TEMPERATURE FORECAST
COME FROM OCN OR LONG TERM TREND. WE KEPT SOME WARMTH DUE TO 
OCN IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. THE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST IS 
OCN AS WELL AS COUPLED MODEL. OVERALL COVERAGE IS VERY LOW AND CL APPLIES
TO MOST OF THE COUNTRY - INCLUDING AK.

OCN PREDICTS EXTRA WETNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST - PRIMARILY FLORIDA. ALL OTHER 
LOCATIONS INCLUDING AK ARE JUDGED TO BE CL. 


NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY OCTOBER 18 2001.

NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE 
MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.

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