FXUS63 KEAX 220704 AFDMCI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 150 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003 THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN DEWPOINTS EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...NIGHTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL NICELY DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SUSPECT GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN H8 TEMPERATURES AS PER THE MESOETA. DB 329 PM... HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATED THE FORECAST TODAY. A WEAK FRONT...THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING...HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS LANGUISHING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. BY 2 PM MOST STATIONS HAD BROKEN THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING POPPED OFF A SMALL SHORT LIVED SHOWER NEAR THE CITY OF LEAVENWORTH AROUND NOON. DESPITE THE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY...STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN INHIBITED BY WARM 500MB TEMPS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE JUST NOT THERE. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO POP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE A RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND TODAYS "COOL" FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RANGE THROUGH THE 90S...BUT HEAT INDICIES WILL BE BELOW 105. HENCE...THE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. THE "COOLER" TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS MORE HOT AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PUSHING TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S. A EAST PACIFIC WAVE WILL PUSH A FLATTENED WEST CONUS RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 20S FOR THE WEST HALF OF MISSOURI AND ALL OF KANSAS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A COOL BIAS. SO...I HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES...BUT I ONLY TWEAKED GOING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS A LOCALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH NEXT WEEK. CUTTER 1140 AM... AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DEALING WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. I EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THREE DISTINCT FEATURES. 1) A PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. 2) THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SURGING EAST. 3) A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) NEAR WICHITA MOVING NORTHEAST. THE 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING HAS A GOOD DEAL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE BETWEEN 700MB AND 800MB. WIND PROFILERS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LAYER...SO AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 100 DEGREES I'D EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE SIMILAR TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THE LAST FEW DAYS. A FEW STORMS DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE SEVERE WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS FROM SAINT JOSEPH TO BETHANY ARE MOST FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS CITY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME AND WICHITA MCV INTERACT. KOCH .EAX...NONE $$