FXUS65 KLKN 140909
 AFDLKN
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
 209 AM PDT SAT MAR 14 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH NORTHERN
 NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
 WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK RESULTING IN DRY
 WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
 &&
 
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE COAST OF
 WRN CANADA BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRUSH NRN NV. THE
 FIRST IN THESE SERIES OF SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH NRN NV TONIGHT WITH
 ADDITIONAL WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
 WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NWD WITH
 POPS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 PCT NEAR INTERSTATE 80 TO 25 TO 30 PCT
 ALONG THE NRN BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5500 FEET
 AT NIGHT TO 6500 FEET DURING THE DAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
 BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH DURING ANY 12
 HR PERIOD. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE WIND. WINDS
 WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST SHORT
 WAVE WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A
 DEEP SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
 TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY. 700 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KTS
 BY SUNDAY AFTN. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NRN NV SUNDAY
 AFTN IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS THIS HIGH. FOR NOW WILL
 HIGHLIGHT WINDS IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND LET LATER SHIFT
 TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT POSSIBILITY OF AN ADVISORY. WINDY CONDITIONS
 WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.
 
 .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD 
 AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK SHOWING ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NV. 
 MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
 RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A 
 STRONG 140KT JET STREAM PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. GFS...ECMWF AND GFS 
 ENSEMBLE FORECASTS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MOST OF THE ENERGY 
 REMAINING NORTH OF NV...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS 
 ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT WDLY SCT RAIN/SNOW 
 SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NV MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK 
 COLD FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKENS. KEPT POP AROUND 20 
 PCT ALONG I80 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH POP AROUND 35 
 PCT IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING 
 TREND STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGS 
 ABOVE NORMAL WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMP 
 WARMING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NV THROUGH 
 WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGS ACROSS SOME OF THE 
 LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NRN NYE COUNTY.  LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY 
 COOL AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
 WEEK. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW BACKING WINDS ALOFT AS 
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
 TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS 
 ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FURTHER WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER 
 MOST OF THE AREA AND EVEN LOW 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER 
 ELEVATIONS OF NRN NYE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY FRIDAY LATE NEXT 
 WEEK.   
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH 
 INCREASING HIGH TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 
 AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE 
 AFTERNOON.
 &&
 
 .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.
 &&
 
 
 
 91/95/95