SPC MCD 091114
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-091245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...

VALID 091114Z - 091245Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND MUCH OF
LA...
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...90-100 KT...IS NOW APPROACHING
CNTRL TX WHERE SHARPENING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE OBSERVED. MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX TO NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. IN
ADDITION...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION
SUPPORTING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL EJECT ACROSS
EAST TX LATER THIS MORNING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN CREATING HIGH END HODOGRAPHS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADIC STORMS AND DAMAGING BOW ECHOES. AS THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT RESPONDS TO THIS TROUGH...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EMERGE THIS MORNING AND RACE NEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. BROAD
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM.

..DARROW.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
30779575 32719461 32869151 30709123 29759211 29859517
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091210
SPC MCD 091210
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-091345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46...

VALID 091210Z - 091345Z

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN
AR...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS STABILIZED MUCH
OF THE TORNADO WATCH REGION. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
IDENTIFIABLE IN AN E-W ORIENTATION ROUGHLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH FROM NERN AR TO NEAR FSM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL BE SOUTH
OF THIS REGION WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE BUOYANT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. SERN MOST COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A
REPLACEMENT WATCH BY 14Z.


..DARROW.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
36139528 37119347 37169029 35638956 34789338 34869538
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091630
SPC MCD 091630
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...WRN
KY...EXTREME SRN IL...EXTREME SERN MO.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...

VALID 091630Z - 091830Z
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY FROM
NEAR DYR SWWD TOWARD NRN PORTIONS LIT AREA...WHERE IT INTERSECTS
NEWD MOVING BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION. CONVERGENCE...
VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT RETREATS NWD 10-15 KT...TOWARD AN ISALLOBARIC
FALL AXIS AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ALONG AND S OF THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE --
WITH 0-1 KM SRH 500-800 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS 65-80 KT...BASED ON
RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA. GIVEN THESE EXTREME SHEAR
PROFILES...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITH EMBEDDED BLOW/LEWP
CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SUPERCELLS...DESPITE OVERALL LINEAR
ORGANIZATION.

WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM MS RIVER ALONG WRN TN BORDER...SSEWD
ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR MEI. AIRMASS FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE WITH NEWD EXTENT FROM THAT FRONT...SUCH
THAT BUOYANCY IS ENTIRELY ELEVATED -- EVEN FOR BASE LEVEL OF
EFFECTIVE PARCELS -- FROM NWRN TN ACROSS WRN KY. MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION SHOW ELEVATED MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER
500 J/KG. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP LIMITING HEATING...AND ONLY
WEAK WAA ANTICIPATED NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIND AIR MASS WILL NOT
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FARTHER NE ACROSS REMAINDER WRN KY/SRN
INDIANA TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WW IN NEXT FEW HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
37178964 37348813 37198762 36718744 35598824 34189003
33489164 33299241 34449267
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091634
SPC MCD 091634
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK/WRN AR AND SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091634Z - 091830Z
SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING BY 18Z OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND SWRN MO. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SVR WW.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN AR AND SERN
MO...AND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK. A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS THUS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS CLEARING.
THIS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THE AXIS IS EXPECTED SLOWLY
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO
-25 DEG C AT 500 MB/ FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO FORM ON EITHER THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT OVER FAR
NERN OK/SWRN MO...OR ONE OR MORE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER FAR ERN OK/WRN
AR BY 18Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 63-65 DEG F RANGE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...COLD LOW-MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST SHEAR...AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.


..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
33889432 35979315 37149277 37589414 36649501 35739505
34079521
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091705
SPC MCD 091705
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-091830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/CENTRAL/SRN LA...SERN AR...WRN/NRN
MS...EXTREME NWRN AL.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 48...

VALID 091705Z - 091830Z
ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT TORNADO WW IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE SCHEDULED
19Z EXPIRATION OF THIS ONE. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE IS EVIDENT
BETWEEN PBF-MLU THEN SWWD TOWARD CHAMBERS COUNTY TX. ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF ASCENT EVIDENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY INDICATE ONE OR MORE
NEW LINES OF TSTMS WILL EVOLVE GRADUALLY AHEAD OF EXISTING ACTIVITY.
AS SUCCESSIVE LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOP...ERN-MOST BAND WILL IN
TURN BECOME PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN FROM W-E ACROSS REGION...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TX/OK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WHICH ALREADY IS FAVORABLE GIVEN 200-400
J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND 60-70 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS IN VWP/PROFILER DATA.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT AS EXTREME AS FARTHER N
OVER WW 49...BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
OVER THIS REGION FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...A FEW OF
WHICH MAY BECOME TORNADIC.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR INSTABILITY IS LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...HOWEVER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL BE AT LEAST MRGLLY
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW
POINTS LOW-MID 60S AMIDST GRADUAL DIABATIC HEATING...RESULTING IN
MLCAPES GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.


..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
29989428 31099309 32389216 33219170 33509144 34119074
34729014 35018803 33848804 32848852 30619033 29749154
29579309
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091952
SPC MCD 091952
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...MS...PORTIONS WRN/NRN AL...S-CENTRAL/SERN
LA...PORTIONS MID TN.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50...

VALID 091952Z - 092115Z
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE AIR MASS
BECOMES TOO STABILIZED AND NONCONVERGENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTION. REPLACEMENT OR ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WHICH WOULD COVER AREAS FARTHER E
ACROSS NRN/WRN AL AND PERHAPS SERN MS.

MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ACROSS NRN
MS WITH SOLID DEFINITION IN REFLECTIVITY...AND ENEWD 30-35 KT OVER
LA WHERE ITS STRUCTURE IS MORE FRACTURED. PRIND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND REPLACE
ORIGINAL LINE OVER ITS SRN EXTENT IN SRN MS AND SERN LA. POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL TORNADOES CONTINUES...BOTH FROM
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW/LEWP CIRCULATIONS...GIVEN FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN INFLOW SECTOR. VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE
EVIDENT IN OKO -- NERN MS PROFILER -- WITH 0-1 KM SRH ROUGHLY 500
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 70 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR DIMINISHES
SLIGHTLY WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS MS DELTA REGION EWD TO AL...BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH TIME...AS ENHANCED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ALOFT SHIFT NEWD ACROSS AREA. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MRGL GIVEN
MID/UPPER 50S SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS AREA...HOWEVER DIABATICALLY
HEATED SFC PARCELS YIELD WEAK INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD PROFILES THAT MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GUSTS.


..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
29738995 29489071 29469197 29669294 29939327 30169322
30419242 31479118 32549027 34118946 34968935 35068756
36698661 36478522 34988558 34558583 34018617 32828701
31888791 30578902
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091955
SPC MCD 091955
ARZ000-MOZ000-092200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AR AND SCENTRAL/SERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091955Z - 092200Z
ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF WW
51...CENTRAL AR AND SCENTRAL/SERN MO...IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CLEARING TREND WAS PROGRESSING INTO
CENTRAL AR BEHIND SQUALL LINE OVER THE MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT THE
AIRMASS WAS DESTABILIZING AS /LIT WAS 70/62 AT 19Z/. GIVEN SATELLITE
TRENDS...THIS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AND DEVELOP NWD INTO
SCENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LITTLE CINH REMAINS AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO BY 20Z. GIVEN
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR/COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.


..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
35199113 36669049 37339042 37329156 36699186 35609234
35009277 34059319 33979207
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092106
SPC MCD 092106
MOZ000-ARZ000-092230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AR AND SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...

VALID 092106Z - 092230Z
THREAT FOR SVR WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS NCENTRAL AR IN THE NEXT
2 HOURS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z
FOR THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER /NERN AR/ AND OUTSIDE OF WW
51.

LATEST RAD/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NWRN AR. SVR
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS IN THE
CLUSTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORT MAX. GIVEN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER MODEL SOUNDING DATA/
SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE HE VORT MAX HAS
AIDED IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER. FURTHER

SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PORTION OF WW 51
INTO CENTRAL AR...BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /70-90 KTS/ WILL TEND
TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER
NORTH IN SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM
500-750 J/KG/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SVR THREAT.

GIVEN OVERALL LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF VORT MAX INTO
NCENTRAL AR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT.
HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.


..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
38369084 38439256 37359304 35579341 35149317 34729293
35279257 36819172
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092132
SPC MCD 092132
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-092300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN INDIANA...W-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL
KY...WRN/MID TN...SWRN OH.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...

VALID 092132Z - 092300Z
LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW PATTERNS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW AREA...AND THEN UP OH VALLEY TOWARD
REMAINDER SERN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL KY AND SWRN OH. LINE HAS
PRODUCED DAMAGING GUSTS AND FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS IN PAST 2-3 HOURS.
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND THIS CONVECTION. TN PORTION OF LINE WILL
MOVE INTO NRN SECTION OF SVR WW 53 BEFORE WW 52 EXPIRES.
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BASE OF EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER WILL
REMAIN ON OR BARELY ABOVE SFC FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING AT
LEAST MRGL TORNADO RISK GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
MEAN LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE BUOYANCY...KEEPING MUCAPES BELOW 500
J/KG IN MOST AREAS. ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES E AND NE OF WW
AREA...OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING THETAE IN NEAR-SFC LAYER...AS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...OCNL WIND
DAMAGE MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR NE AS SWRN OH.

..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...
40078583 38848661 37998705 36628836 36068848 35618848
35218818 35228770 35888711 36688657 36678509 39088414
39978480
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092151
SPC MCD 092151
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN MS...SERN LA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50...

VALID 092151Z - 092245Z
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AS IT MOVES NEWD
ACROSS ERN/SRN MS AND PORTIONS SERN LA. TORNADO THREAT STILL
REMAINS BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER NRN PORTION OF
LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AIR
MASS...AND INTO SEVERE WW 53.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER INFLOW SECTOR FARTHER S -- ACROSS SERN MS
AND SERN LA -- IS EXPECTED TO VEER SOMEWHAT AS REGION OF STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM AREA. THIS MAY REDUCE
CONVERGENCE AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF SRN PORTION OF
CONVECTIVE BAND. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 400-600 J/KG AND 0-6 KM AGL
SHEARS OF 60-80 KT. MLCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AFTER PEAK SFC HEATING...BUT LIFTED
PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN SFC BASED FOR REMAINDER OF DURATION OF WW.

..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
30839135 31808971 33438873 34948793 34788763 33098830
32048864 30818856 29738982 29249124 29599210
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092244
SPC MCD 092244
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-092345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/NERN AR...FAR WRN KY/SRN IL AND WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 092244Z - 092345Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS
THE MS VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A SQUALL
LINE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. RECENT TRACKING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CIRRUS SHEATH INDICATES NEWD MOVEMENT OF 65-70 KTS. THIS SPEED
HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HRS...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER AR.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS MOVING AROUND 40-45 KTS.
THUS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION AND THREAT FOR SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NERN AR/SERN MO INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN
AND SRN IL. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WAS BEGINNING
TO REDEVELOP /PER BLM PROFILER/ OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THUS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.


..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
38278852 37848779 36188845 35288898 35088961 35339101
35909144 38099004
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092254
SPC MCD 092254
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN AL/MIDDLE AND ERN TN/NRN GA/CENTRAL
AND ERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53...

VALID 092254Z - 092330Z
ONE OR TWO NEW WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FROM GA NWD
TO PARTS OF KY.

STRONG SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO OVER NRN AL WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55-60 KT...WITH THE BOW OVER NRN AL
HAVING THE FASTEST SPEED AROUND 60 KT.

LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT RISE/FALL
COUPLET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS /RISES/ INTO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN
/FALLS/...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MAINTAINING THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION. VAD WIND
DATA OVER MS IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO INDICATED WSWLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 55-70 KT IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER AGL. THIS WILL
FAVOR THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ENEWD.
DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WILL
COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED SEVERE
THREAT EAST AND NORTH OF WW 53.


..PETERS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
32188877 34028740 36018706 37918592 38538446 38018264
35998326 35558335 33808360 32438422 32038692
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092343
SPC MCD 092343
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SERN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50...

VALID 092343Z - 100015Z
WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10/00Z.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED NEWD INTO
AL...WITH A FEW STORMS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO SRN MS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS WITHIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER SRN MS AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION ACROSS THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 50
AND POTENTIALLY ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN AL WILL BE MINIMAL ALLOWING
THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE.


..PETERS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
29109161 30209162 31529017 32208848 32008745 30208758
29318891 28788915 28699063
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100054
SPC MCD 100054
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-100300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN IND/SWRN OH...SERN IL...FAR
NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...54...

VALID 100054Z - 100300Z
THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL END OVER THE REMAINING PORTION OF WW 52
IN THE NEXT HALF OF AN HOUR...THUS WW 52 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 01Z. SVR THREAT MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN/CENTRAL KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THESE AREAS BEFORE THEN.

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WW 52 AND INTO WW 55
OVER CENTRAL/ERN KY. FURTHER WEST...WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY /WW 54/ WILL MOVE EWD FROM 35-45 KTS
THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 54 OVER THE 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE
TILT TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCING MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE CONDITIONS OF
AROUND 57/54 WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND
MUCAPES AROUND 750 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN WRN KY/SWRN
IND ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...A CONTINUED
FORWARD PROGRESS AND SEVERE THREAT IS VERY POSSIBLE WELL BEYOND 03Z.
THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN
IND...SWRN OH AND WRN/MIDDLE TN BEFORE THEN. DESPITE LINEAR
STRUCTURE TO CONVECTIVE LINE...BACKED/STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AS
EVIDENT BY THE PAH VWP /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2/...WILL SUPPORT
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.


..CROSBIE.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...
39088417 39698466 38798836 37818925 36258959 35939009
35609018 35468872 35848762 36218646
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100122
SPC MCD 100122
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-100215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/FAR WRN NC/PARTS OF ERN AL/NWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53...56...

VALID 100122Z - 100215Z
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS WW 53 BY 0130Z AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WW 56. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WW 56...WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NWRN
GA AND ERN TN INTO FAR WRN NC...WHERE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO TRACK
TO THE ENE AT AROUND 40 KT. FARTHER S...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AL WAS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 30 KT.
DECREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHTNING DATA DURING THE LAST HOUR /SINCE
00Z/ ACROSS WW 53 AND 56 COMBINED WITH LESS OF A SIGNIFICANT
RISE/FALL COUPLET ACROSS THIS REGION AND A STRONG CAP ON THE 00Z ATL
SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

..PETERS.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
32108774 32818686 34208600 35138578 35608585 36648533
36538334 35028363 33278467 32578537 32108648
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100219
SPC MCD 100219
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-100315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN KY/FAR SERN IND/SWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 100219Z - 100315Z
LOW-TOPPED FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SERN/ERN PART OF WW 55 THROUGH 0330Z.
DESPITE LACK OF LIGHTNING ALONG THIS CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MONTGOMERY TO LAUREL COUNTIES IN ERN KY...NARROW AXIS
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THIS LINE COMBINED WITH FORWARD SPEED AT
40-45 KT SUGGESTS THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF WW 55...
FAST MOVING /ENE AT 55 KT/ UPSTREAM BOW ECHO WITH THE APEX CURRENTLY
APPROACHING WRN KY COUNTIES OF MCLEAN TO TODD IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
SW-W PART OF WW 55 AROUND 03Z. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM
BOW...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF WW 55 AS STRONG
MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVERSPREADS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.


..PETERS.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
39548478 39478272 38328269 37208299 36588395 36638640
38078588
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100418
SPC MCD 100418
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-100515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IND/SWRN OH/CENTRAL-ERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...57...

VALID 100418Z - 100515Z
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KY/SRN IND AND
SPREADING ENEWD INTO ERN KY/SWRN OH BY 05Z.

DESPITE DRAMATIC DECREASE IN LIGHTNING WITH FAST MOVING BOW ECHO...
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADING
ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY JUST WEST OF THE LOW-TOPPED BOW ECHO WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STRONGEST PART OF BOW
ECHO WAS MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 60 KT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY ATTM.
AREA VAD WIND DATA INDICATED 50-60 KT WLY FLOW EXTENDING INTO THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERE /JUST OFF THE SURFACE/. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN
THE WAKE OF THE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DOWNWARD TRANSFER
OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...MAINTAINING FAST MOVEMENT OF
BOW AND SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.


..PETERS.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...
36648637 37348574 37998555 38678620 39338649 39548485
39438263 37518297 36558392
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100526
SPC MCD 100526
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-100600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/SWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 100526Z - 100600Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 55
THROUGH 06Z. GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT HOUR SHOULD BE ACROSS
NERN KY INTO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL OH ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH APEX OF
REMAINING BOW. ALTHOUGH SOME WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE ENE OF THE
WATCH...ISOLATED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A NEW WW.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED REFLECTIVITY DECREASING AS BOW CONTINUED
TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE ENE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED
SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE APEX OF THE BOW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE BOW IS PRIMARILY ELEVATED
WITH LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS HAVING MORE DIFFICULTY MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WANE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..PETERS.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
36658560 37398448 38768383 39168404 39598415 39448273
38648266 37528297 36558396
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100930
SPC MCD 100930
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 100930Z - 101100Z
TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER SERN AL MAY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LIGHTNING AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM
AUO SWWD TO 20 S OF GZH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING
EWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT. 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF MID 60S
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THESE INTENSIFYING STORMS...WHICH ARE LARGELY
CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY SHEARED WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50
KTS. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.

..MEAD.. 03/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
30268736 31108699 32128577 32668507 32688450 32318398
31428398 30618417 30048442 29558500 29668654
NNNN