Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 47
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 45. WATCH NUMBER 45 WILL NOT BE
IN EFFECT AFTER 950 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 46...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT FROM S CENTRAL INTO E CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A 50 KT LLJ AND EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOCUS ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT AND SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NEWD INTO MO BY ABOUT 09Z. INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 47 SEVERE TSTM KS 080350Z - 080800Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40SSW HUT/HUTCHINSON KS/ - 55NNE CNU/CHANUTE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /30WSW ICT - 29WNW BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
REPLACES WW 45..KS
LAT...LON 38189815 39069508 37759508 36889815
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 47 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 47
VALID 080530Z - 080640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..03/08/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 47
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-017-031-035-049-059-073-077-079-095-111-115-139-
155-173-191-207-080640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE COFFEY COWLEY
ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
LYON MARION OSAGE
RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER
WOODSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 47
VALID 080430Z - 080540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..03/08/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 47
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-017-031-035-049-059-073-077-079-095-111-115-139-
155-173-191-207-080540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE COFFEY COWLEY
ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
LYON MARION OSAGE
RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER
WOODSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.