SPC AC 101617
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
   HLC 40 S DDC 20 NE EHA 20 WNW LAA 20 NNE DEN 25 N LAR 40 SW GCC 30 S
   4BQ 20 W REJ 45 NNE RAP 30 NNW VTN 25 WNW BUB 40 NE HLC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
   WAL 50 E CRW 20 ENE MTO 25 NNW BMI CGX 45 NE MKG 25 NNE OSC
   ...CONT... 35 NE ART 20 NNW BAF 35 E ISP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ORF 55 ENE DAN
   25 S GSO 25 WNW CAE 25 NNE TLH 20 SSE TLH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 65 NNE ATY
   35 SE MHE 25 ESE YKN 35 NE SUX 45 SW LSE 40 ESE MQT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DUG 50 NNW SVC
   30 N DRO 25 NW CAG 50 SSE LND 15 NW LND 30 SSE JAC 15 ESE PIH 40 SSW
   NFL 20 ENE SAC 35 SSE MHS 70 S RDM 55 ENE CTB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT
   LAKES/NERN U.S....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY WITH TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND
   BROAD RIDGING ERN U.S. VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NV
   WILL TURN NEWD TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SWD INTO OR.
   SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ATTM CENTRAL NV DEEPENS NEWD TO BE
   OVER SERN MT BY 12Z TUE. INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HIGH PLAINS
   AS SYSTEMS DEEPENS TO THE W WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NWD E OF ROCKIES.
   
   COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO ACROSS LS TO
   CENTRAL IA THEN WWD ACROSS SRN NEB AND NERN CO. A MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE VORTICITY(MCV) CENTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NY IN THE WARM
   SECTOR.
   
   ...OH VALLEY/NERN U.S...
   REF MCD 631 AND MCD 632
   
   A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS IN PLACE
   OVER ALL BUT THE NEW ENGLAND PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S. 
   LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM ARE COMMON MUCH OF THIS AREA...WHICH
   COUPLED WITH MLCAPE UPWARDS TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...SUPPORT A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ALLOW
   SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF
   BEST SURFACE HEATING.  THE MCV ACROSS NY WILL  BE MOVING INTO MORE
   STABLE AIR MASS THUS SEVERE THREAT WOULD SEEM MINIMAL TO THE E OF
   IT.  FIRST SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE S OF MCV CLOUDINESS OVER PA
   AND WWD INTO OH WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE.  AN INCREASED
   SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS NY WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE
   OF MCV.
   
   SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30KT OF GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLYS ACROSS
   MUCH OF NERN U.S. SUPPORTS MULTICELL STORM MODE WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
   RATES/FREEZING LEVEL  FOR LARGE HAIL.  SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS THAT COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   MORE PULSE TYPE MODE THE SRN PORTION OF RISK AREA WHERE SHEAR IS
   20KT OR LESS.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   AS STRONG TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS GREAT
   BASIN TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NWWD E OF CENTRAL ROCKIES
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN WY TO
   E OF BIG HORNS AS WELL AS ERN CO.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
   AND DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 50F  AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON BECOMES
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG
   PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR TO THE W. VEERING PROFILES...PARTICULARLY ERN
   WY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   THE E SLOPES AND MOVE NEWD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OF ADJACENT
   PLAINS.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS VEERING SHEAR PROFILES BECOME
   QUITE FAVORABLE  ERN WY AND POSSIBLY NERN CO.
   
   FURTHER S INTO WRN KS SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT AIR MASS WILL
   BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.  PROVIDED STORMS CAN EITHER INITIATE OR MOVE
   OFF HIGHER TERRAIN...PULSE SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SHEAR IS EVEN
   WEAKER FURTHER S INTO TX PANHANDLE...NEVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL OF
   MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG E OF SURFACE DRY LINE SUGGEST A PULSE THREAT
   AS WELL.
   
   ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z