AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 228 PM MDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY) CURRENTLY...3000 J/KG OVER PLAINS. SHEAR IS INCREASING PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. DEWS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND WILL NOT MIX OUT MUCH MORE. BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE PALMER DVD. FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL. AFTERNOON...BUSY DAY ANTICIPATED. STORMS ALREADY FIRING BUT BETTER STORMS WILL GO BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS LIKELY WITH A FEW TORS POSSIBLE AND EXPECT T BOX BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. DEEP SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET GRADUALLY BETTER AND THIS SHOWN BY 00Z RUC WITH 3500 J/KG ON PLAINS POINTING TOWARD PALMER DVD AND 45 KNTS DEEP SHEAR. FIRE WX...NO CHANGES HERE IN SHORT TERM. WINDS INCREASING AS I WRITE. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS COMING OUT AND SOME MOISTURE...EXPECT ISOLD FIRE STARTING CGS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS WILL BE WITH US. DUE TO MERIDIONAL FLOW...STORMS MAY HUG THE I-25 CORRIDOR MORE THEN NORMAL. BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO CLEAR OUT AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS TOMORROW...CLEAR AND WINDS. FIRE WX WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NWS PUB CWA. WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGE AT 700 MB PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...THEN MOVE SLOWLY BACK NORTH SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. COOLING OF AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES WILL PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220<225. INCLUDES THE SAN JUAN MTNS... CENTRAL MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN MTNS AND PIKES PEAK/TELLER COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220<225. INCLUDES THE SAN JUAN MTNS...CENTRAL MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN MTNS AND PIKES PEAK/TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1014 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION...THE MODIFIED KTLH SOUNDING HAS A ML CAPE OF 2600 J/KG, PW OF 1.8 INCHES, AND K INDEX OF 34. THOSE CALCULATIONS ASSUME A SURFACE PARCEL WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 90 AND A DEWPOINT OF 70, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ALOFT. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12 UTC UPPER AIR DATA SHOW MID-UPPER LAYER DRYING OVER OUR AREA AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE RUC WILL BE CORRECT IN FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ML CAPE WOULD DROP TO 1850 J/KG AND THE K INDEX TO 27. THAT WOULD CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALSO, THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND (WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE) IS FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH WOULD PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. A LARGE OF AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA MAY ALSO COMPLICATE THE POP FORECAST. SOMETIMES THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THESE CLOUDY AND SUNNY AREAS CAN LEAD TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WHICH CAN TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT, THE CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION OF LOWER POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND HIGHER POPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKS REASONABLE, AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECASTS WILL BE NEEDED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 230 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT OVER FROM THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND THE GULF SEABREEZE HAVE FADED OVERNIGHT AND SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR. CALM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE STATIONARY WAVE OVER EAST GA CONTINUES TO KICK OFF CONVECTION NE OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE IN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA BY ENHANCING THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I HAVE DECREASED THE POPS IN THE AL ZONES TO 30 TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH GUIDANCE AND ADJACENT OFFICES. CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND CLIMO: MAX TEMPS AROUND 90, MINS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM... (SAT-TUE) THE ECMWF AND LATEST GFS BUILD A RATHER FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THIS RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN A TROUGH. IN FACT THE GFS FORECASTS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. I HAVE FOLLOWED GFS MOS CLOSELY WHICH IS VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 89 70 89 70 / 50 30 50 20 PFN 87 73 87 74 / 40 30 50 20 DHN 89 72 89 72 / 30 30 50 20 ABY 88 70 89 71 / 50 30 50 20 VLD 87 69 89 70 / 50 30 50 20 CTY 88 69 87 70 / 50 30 50 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ CURRENT DISCUSSION...FOURNIER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BOLINSKI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 930 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... FOCUS TNGT WL BE PCPN TRENDS. CURRENT SITUATION HAS MINIMAL FLOW THRU TROPOSHPERE WITH UPR LVL RDG ACRS LOW/MID MS RVR VLY. SLA WNDS AOB 30KTS THRU 10KM. WEAK UPR LOW INVOF TX/OK AND LEADING SHRT WV AXIS IS GRDLLY PUSHING WEAK QG FORCING AND DEEPER MSTR NWD ACRS KS/MO TWRD IA HWVR. PWS 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES UPSTREAM AND AOA 150 PERCENT OF NML. THIS IS ABT ALL THE FORCING AVBL OUTSIDE OF LOW LVL CNVGNC HWVR WITH LTL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. THETA-E ADVCTN AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MINIMAL WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS APPRG TO SETUP TOO FAR N AND W TO REALIZE LOW LVL CNVGNC. 00Z RUC WANDERS 0-2KM CVNGNC ACRS FA OVGNT WITH WEAK LOW LVL JET NO MORE THAN 20KTS. FORCING WL NOT BE GREAT FOR WDSPRD PCPN BUT LCLLY HVY RAINS QUITE POSSIBLE WHERE ANY DVLPS. DEEP MSTR INCRG WITH WRM CLD DEPTHS 13KFT PLUS...SOME MSTR TRANSPORT...AND VERY SLOW MOVMT. HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH WITH SOME UVM POTENTIAL...AND ADDED SOME MENTION OF LCLLY HVY RAINS. WL HAVE TO MONITOR NARROW AXIS FM JUST N OF DNS-EBS-ALO CLOSELY IN THE COMING HRS WITH PCPN ALREADY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. LTL CHG TO OTHER ELEMENTS TNGT...AND NO CHGS BYD 12Z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 140 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)... SCT TSRA DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RELATIVE MAX IN PW FIELD, AND AHEAD OF SUBTLE UPPER TROP SPEED MAX OVER SRN IL/MO. FOLLOWING THE RUC, LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY MID EVE. FLOW PTTN DURING MOST OF SHORT TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SERN CONUS, AND CHCS FOR PCPN EACH DAY WITHIN UNCAPPED ENVIRON. FRONTAL BDY WHICH IS FCST TO SETTLE SWD INTO IN/OH TOMORROW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FLAVOR OF FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT, ESP ALONG/N OF I-64. PCPN EFFICIENCY PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINS THU AFT/EVE, GIVEN FREEZING LVLS NEAR 4KM, PWS AOA 2", AND A WIND PROFILE POINTING TWDS SLOW MVG/TRAINING CELLS. SFC BDY FCST TO LIFT NWD MORE INTO GREAT LAKES FRI AS 500MB WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER NRN FA GIVEN SOME SPREAD IN SOLNS BTWN GFS/ETA. FEATURE OF NOTE ON SAT IS EXTREME INSTABILITY FCST TO DEVELOP (GFS CAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG) OVER OH VLY. TS CELLS MAY ORGANIZE ALONG COLD POOLS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WHICH COULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH. XXV .LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)... EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH PUSHING THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL U.S. TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FCST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRAGGING A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BY WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS EXTENDED FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MON/TUE PERIOD TO BUMP UP POPS AND SKY COVER A BIT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS THROUGH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...00Z TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND OF HPC/OP NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST. -JARVIS && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE TEMPS ALONG WITH -RA FAR SOUTH. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPR LVL FLOW THROUGH THE UPR GRT LAKES ATOP SE CONUS RDG. A WEAK SHRTWV OVER WI AND CONTINUING SUPPORT FROM NRN ONTARIO JET RIGHT ENTRANCE HAS SUSTAINED FROM -RA FROM NE WI INTO FAR SRN UPR MI. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH DRY ACYC ENE FLOW HAS HELPED PUSH OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND LEFT MAINLY SCT-BKN CI OVER UPR MI. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MDLS RH PRFL SUGGEST CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS 37F OVER N CNTRL UPR MI...GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT COMPLETE DECOUPLING AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS ETA DEPICTS 15-20 KT BNDRY LYR WIND BTWN 06Z-09Z. EXPECT ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE S TO END BY 06Z...PER RADAR TRENDS...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES E AND BECOMES SHEARED IN MORE CONFLUENT FLOW. JLB .PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS ISSUED 357 PM EDT WED JUN 9. STRONGER 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNS TO CWA ON FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE GETTING KICKED OUT OF TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA ON FRI. THIS SHOWS UP ON ETA I300-I315 ISENTROPIC SURFACES. GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND NOT QUITE BUYING THIS WITH WARM FRONT COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND THEN SPREAD THIS OVER THE EASTERN CWA FRI NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS AS THESE SEEM REASONABLE. MIXED 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SFC AND THESE GAVE ME CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SHOW 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG WITH A TROUGH WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE ROCKIES ON SUN. THE TROUGH AFFECTS CWA ON SUN INTO MON. ECMWF SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN U.S. FOR TUE...BUT IS ONLY MODEL TO DO THIS AS OTHERS ARE NOT AS ZONAL. GFS THEN SHOWS MORE TROUGHING FOR WED. CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW THIS ZONAL FLOW EITHER AND THEY LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. GFS ENSEMBLES SIMILAR UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN THEY START TO GET NOISY. CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL GO WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE VALUES AS THESE SEEM REASONABLE. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME DRY WEATHER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HAVE LATE SUN INTO MON WET...THEN DRY FOR TUE AND WET AGAIN FOR WED. MICHELS && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1028 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .UPDATED... AT 10 PM THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT OVER SRN WI AND A SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE OVER SW WI. THE PROBLEM IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THAT AREA OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RUC...FLS RUC AND ETA GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL NOT GO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 UNTIL THAT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THAT AREA OF STEADY RAIN IS IN CNTL WI...IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY POP IS WARRANTED FOR EVEN THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.8 INCHES OVER THE SRN CWA... AND THE FRONT STALLED NEAR GRR WHILE THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...KEEPING THE HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT MAKES SENSE TOO. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN IT WILL NOT COOL OFF AS MUCH AS EARLIER THOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THOUGH ABOUT A FLOOD WATCH BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK AS JUICY AS LAST NIGHT'S EVENT. NOT TO SAY SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER WILL NOT GET 2 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z BUT IF THAT HAPPENED OVER 8 HOURS... IT STILL WOULD NOT BE A BIG ISSUE. FOR ONE THING IT LOW LEVEL JET IS ONLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT... SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE 35 TO 45 KNOTS IT WAS LAST NIGHT (AS SEEN ON THE VAD AND PROFILERS) SO FOR NOW AFTER COORDINATING WITH IWX...WE WILL NOT ISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH. && .GRR...NONE && $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1100 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOW A DEEP LOW OVER GREAT BASIN. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN LOW. THE FIRST IS OVER WISCONSIN. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO IOWA. LOW LEVEL JET IS DRAWING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION. SURFACE-500MB RH IS 80 PERCENT OVER THE U.P. WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AND WITH THE DRY AIR THE SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORY FORECAST CONTINUE TO SHOW COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. WITH THE WEAKER Q-VECTOR AND LACK OF SURFACE HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE LESS LIKELY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1043 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM...ACTIVE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS CREEPING ITS WAY SOUTH, GOT AN ADDED BOOST FROM A WAKE LOW PRODUCED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS THAT WAS IN E UPPER THIS MORNING. NEXT AREA OF REMNANTS OF A MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING. RADAR IS SHOW THAT THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ARE BELOW THE -10C LEVEL, SO LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH NOON. FOR THE AFTERNOON, MODELS (GFS 06Z, ETA AND RUC 12Z) STILL SHOW THAT THE DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER LEVELS IN E UPPER AND PUSH SOUTH. THIS LOOKS GOOD AS THE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO N LOWER OVER THE AFTERNOON SO THAT BY 21Z POPS FROM M-72 AND NORTH ARE 40% OR LESS. THE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY THOUGH WILL BE SOUTH OF M-72 AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. THE FRONT CURRENTLY SITS SOUTH OF A STURGEON POINT TO LUDINGTON LINE, BUT THE 500 MB JET STILL HAS THE RRQ OVER THE AREA, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS, BUT DOWNPLAY THE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. LUTZ && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 318 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 LONG TERM...A BRIEF TRANSITION TOWARD QUIET WEATHER. AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LAKES REGION...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW LIFTING NE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST...REACHING THE QUEBEC BORDER EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY NIGHT STRONG RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE NORTH BACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN LAKES. PRECIP CONCERNS ARE WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS...ETA IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS A DEPARTURE FROM EARLIER RUNS...AND THE ETA IN GENERAL HAS BEEN TOO WET THIS PAST WEEK. IN ADDITION THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER GFS. TONIGHT...DRYING PROCEEDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FIRST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY ALOFT. POPS THUS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE...AND BY OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EXTREME SOUTH. EASTERN UPPER...WHICH WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...WILL HAVE A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. WITH MORE CLOUDS...NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL BE MAINLY 50 TO 55. THURSDAY...NICE DAY SHAPING UP. MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT START THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND PUSH SOUTH. ETA SOUNDGINS SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TO PERHAPS SCT CUMULI. COOL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 850MB TEMPS IN HIGH SINGLE DIGITS C...WITH CORRESPONDING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...NEARLY STACKED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW. RETURN FLOW WILL POINT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...AS A TRIPLE-POINT SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FILLS...MOISTURE INFLOW DIMINISHES HERE AND REFOCUSES TO THE NORTH...WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT EAST OF PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER. END RESULT SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING BAND OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING NE INTO THE SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS OUT...AND INSTEAD JUST PLAY UP AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND. BEFORE THEN... ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN ORDER THU NIGHT (MINS IN THE 40S)...WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 60S. NO CHANGES REST OF FORECAST. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ZOLTOWSKI mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM... LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS REVEALS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THEN SNAKES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...AND JUST ON THE DOOR STEP OF KMKE AT 13Z. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S AND INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS PER FSL/S GROUND BASED GPS NEAR 1.50". MODIFYING 12Z SOUNDING WITH 86/71 SURFACE PARCEL, SHOWS CAPES NEAR 4500 J/KG WITH LI/S TO -10C. THE WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE HIGH BETWEEN 12K-13K FEET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AS STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW PER CORFIDI VECTORS. CURRENTLY, WE ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING MCS (NEARLY STATIONARY LAST NIGHT) WITH 1KM HI-RES VISIBLE SHOWING NOTHING MORE THAN CI/CS ACROSS THE LOWER STATE. LAPS DATA CURRENTLY HAS HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITIONS BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE, WE SHOULD ERODE THE SURFACE CAP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS BETWEEN 83-85F. WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK PER LATEST RUC AS MODEL REVEALS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS FOCUS MECHANISM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITIONAL TO WHAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH BEST SHEAR REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL REFRESH THE GRIDS AND HWO. BGM && .UPDATE...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WILL UPDATE TO LESSEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING AS CAP IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS CWA. THIS LEADS TO CHANCE WORDING NORTH TO ISOLATED SOUTH. STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS(S) FROM WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MI SEEMS TO BE DISRUPTING FLOW. ACTUALLY...CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW HAS SET UP IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...ON CUSP OF MESOSCALE HIGH FROM STORMS AND WAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY MESS THINGS UP A BIT IN THIS PREFERRED AREA (SW LOWER) AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THAT SAID...IT APPEARS FROM INITIAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN THIS REGION THIS MORNING... LEADING TO RATHER RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY AROUND 70 F. BOTTOM LINE...RATHER VIGOROUS...ALBEIT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED DURING LATER 1/2 OF THE DAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE WEST COAST. OBSERVED +110KT 300MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT FROM WESTERN LOWER TO NORTHERN HURON. MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIP/SEVERE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ETA/GFS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ETA IS A BIT STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE TWO MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH...WHICH LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR TODAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA. BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS GOING AHEAD OF IT. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST SHOW THE CAP IN PLACE EARLIER WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 600MB TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY DROP FROM 2C ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN WHY STORMS ARE HAVING SUCH A HARD TIME MAKING IT EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WE SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL START WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN THE NORTH WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT...AND START WITH SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...HENCE THE CHANCE POPS INITIALLY. WILL THEN KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER INSTABILITY/DROPPING HEIGHTS AND THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TODAY. LAPSE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES OVER 1000J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEAR BREAKS UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS MAINLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH COULD HELP TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000J/KG CAPE/LIS DOWN TO -5C. WIND FIELD IS STILL PRETTY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 30M/S BY AFTERNOON. 850MB JET ALSO PICKS UP...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. COULD SEE SOME MULTICELL STORMS...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM PULSE SEVERE. WIND/HAIL BOTH LOOK POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 14-15KFT. STORM MOTION IS LESS THAN 20KTS...AND ORIENTATION TO INFLOW SUPPORTS BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ECHOES...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES /ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DTX/...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT GRB/MPX LAST NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME APPARENT. ETA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...AND KEEPS IT GOING ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE STATE AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN WHAT IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING TONIGHT...EVENING NORTH/ALL NIGHT SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER 850MB FRONT LINGERS BACKS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY...AND CUT BACK FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT IS VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ETA IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER INSTEAD DEVELOPING STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING RATHER BROAD AS SOME ENERGY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHORTWAVES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO THE NORTH. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE FRONT MOVING BACK INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TRIES TO HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE EVERYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER/GURNEY EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 720 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .UPDATE... WILL UPDATE TO LESSEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING AS CAP IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS CWA. THIS LEADS TO CHANCE WORDING NORTH TO ISOLATED SOUTH. STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS(S) FROM WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MI SEEMS TO BE DISRUPTING FLOW. ACTUALLY...CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW HAS SET UP IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...ON CUSP OF MESOSCALE HIGH FROM STORMS AND WAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY MESS THINGS UP A BIT IN THIS PREFERRED AREA (SW LOWER) AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THAT SAID...IT APPEARS FROM INITIAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN THIS REGION THIS MORNING... LEADING TO RATHER RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY AROUND 70 F. BOTTOM LINE...RATHER VIGOROUS...ALBEIT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED DURING LATER 1/2 OF THE DAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT. 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE WEST COAST. OBSERVED +110KT 300MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT FROM WESTERN LOWER TO NORTHERN HURON. MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIP/SEVERE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ETA/GFS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ETA IS A BIT STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE TWO MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH...WHICH LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR TODAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA. BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS GOING AHEAD OF IT. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST SHOW THE CAP IN PLACE EARLIER WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 600MB TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY DROP FROM 2C ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN WHY STORMS ARE HAVING SUCH A HARD TIME MAKING IT EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WE SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL START WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN THE NORTH WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT...AND START WITH SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...HENCE THE CHANCE POPS INITIALLY. WILL THEN KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER INSTABILITY/DROPPING HEIGHTS AND THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TODAY. LAPSE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES OVER 1000J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEAR BREAKS UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS MAINLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH COULD HELP TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000J/KG CAPE/LIS DOWN TO -5C. WIND FIELD IS STILL PRETTY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 30M/S BY AFTERNOON. 850MB JET ALSO PICKS UP...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. COULD SEE SOME MULTICELL STORMS...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM PULSE SEVERE. WIND/HAIL BOTH LOOK POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 14-15KFT. STORM MOTION IS LESS THAN 20KTS...AND ORIENTATION TO INFLOW SUPPORTS BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ECHOES...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES /ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DTX/...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT GRB/MPX LAST NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME APPARENT. ETA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...AND KEEPS IT GOING ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE STATE AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN WHAT IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING TONIGHT...EVENING NORTH/ALL NIGHT SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER 850MB FRONT LINGERS BACKS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY...AND CUT BACK FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT IS VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ETA IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER INSTEAD DEVELOPING STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING RATHER BROAD AS SOME ENERGY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHORTWAVES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO THE NORTH. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE FRONT MOVING BACK INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TRIES TO HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE EVERYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER/GURNEY EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 915 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KS BACK INTO NORTH TX. VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EVENING RAOBS INDICATING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES THROUGHOUT DEPTH OF TROPOSPHERE AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA AS VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF AREA...AND AS A RESULT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. NEXT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OK...AND HAS GENERATED CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO SPREAD BACK INTO CWA LATER ON TONIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CWA...THEN ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN SHEAR AXIS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ETA/RUC MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SEAMAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... 340 PM... TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...WITH SHEAR AXIS DELINEATING AREA OF MOST PRONOUNCED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK OCCURRING IN PRECIPITATION AT TIME...WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING PASSAGE OF ONE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE SHEAR ZONE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION TROPICAL PLUME OR CHANGE IN ORIENTATION IN SHEAR ZONE...THUS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAPS AND FORECAST ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES...THUS KEPT THUNDER WORDING TO ISOLATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS UNTIL 18Z. A LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ATTENDANT PLUME AND SHEAR ZONE TO MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS BACKED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREA. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP IGNITE STORMS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL CAP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THUS ONLY KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER WHICH WILL LIE ALONG CAPS NORTHERN EDGE. RIGHT NOW...HAVE DEVELOPED FORECAST WITH IDEA THAT CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...WILL HAVE WATCH SITUATION CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE VARIANCE OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL RECOVER A LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. PINNING DOWN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN THE WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADD COMPLEXITY TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ETA BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS ON SATURDAY TO COVER POTENTIAL IMPULSE-INITIATED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NOCTURNAL/LLJ CONVECTION TO ENTER NORTHWEST MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE BEHAVIOR...MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...IT IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TIMING OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MOSTLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION...BUT THE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (AS AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE) AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS). SF/LS && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1143 AM... UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPS AND ETA20 SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...SO DID A QUICK UPDATE OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH. SF && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 340 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...WITH SHEAR AXIS DELINEATING AREA OF MOST PRONOUNCED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK OCCURRING IN PRECIPITATION AT TIME...WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING PASSAGE OF ONE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE SHEAR ZONE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION TROPICAL PLUME OR CHANGE IN ORIENTATION IN SHEAR ZONE...THUS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAPS AND FORECAST ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES...THUS KEPT THUNDER WORDING TO ISOLATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS UNTIL 18Z. A LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ATTENDANT PLUME AND SHEAR ZONE TO MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS BACKED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREA. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP IGNITE STORMS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL CAP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THUS ONLY KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER WHICH WILL LIE ALONG CAPS NORTHERN EDGE. RIGHT NOW...HAVE DEVELOPED FORECAST WITH IDEA THAT CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...WILL HAVE WATCH SITUATION CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE VARIANCE OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL RECOVER A LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. PINNING DOWN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN THE WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADD COMPLEXITY TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ETA BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS ON SATURDAY TO COVER POTENTIAL IMPULSE-INITIATED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NOCTURNAL/LLJ CONVECTION TO ENTER NORTHWEST MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE BEHAVIOR...MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...IT IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TIMING OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MOSTLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION...BUT THE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (AS AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE) AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS). SF/LS && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1143 AM... UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPS AND ETA20 SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...SO DID A QUICK UPDATE OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH. SF 409 AM... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1.5"...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. NO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS ON AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. LOWEST VALUES...RIGHT AT 2 INCHES...ARE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MORE FROM THE EVENING UPDATE. SHOULD MAYBE HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S THERE. ETA AND GFS BOTH PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. ETA LINES UP QPF UNDER SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND IS A LITTLE MORE GUNG-HO WITH POPS...HOWEVER QPF IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW. GFS BRINGS QPF ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND QUITE UNSTABLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE. NRR 910 PM TUE... EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES. 18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER. SEAMAN && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1143 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPS AND ETA20 SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...SO DID A QUICK UPDATE OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH. SF && .PREV DISCUSSION... 409 AM... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1.5"...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. NO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS ON AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. LOWEST VALUES...RIGHT AT 2 INCHES...ARE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MORE FROM THE EVENING UPDATE. SHOULD MAYBE HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S THERE. ETA AND GFS BOTH PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. ETA LINES UP QPF UNDER SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND IS A LITTLE MORE GUNG-HO WITH POPS...HOWEVER QPF IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW. GFS BRINGS QPF ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND QUITE UNSTABLE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE. NRR 910 PM TUE... EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES. 18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER. SEAMAN 230 PM... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICTING REMNANTS OF MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO NEBRASKA. HASN'T SPAWNED MUCH PRECIPITATION...ONLY A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED AND SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. TWO FEATURES WORTH NOTING...AN 850MB TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS. 850MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE NORTH...BUT VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN...THE ENTIRE DAY WON'T BE A WASH. AS VORT MAX EXITS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD...TEMPS LOOK IN GOOD ORDER...NO CHANGES MADE. WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ETA...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH FRIDAY THE MOST LIKELY DAY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREE MARK. LATEST ETA RUN DISSOLVES CAP FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STORMS TO ERUPT ON CWA DOORSTEP...WHILE GFS KEEPS LID ON. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF STORMS ON FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GIVE AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT IS PROJECTED TO ROLL ACROSS FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW MOVING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT TIME...WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THEN WILL DIG A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END STRONG CONVECTION THREAT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL PROVIDE AREA WITH WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. LEINS/SF && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 837 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SRT TERM...ALREADY UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE SHRA/TSRA MENTION FOR AFTN/EVENING AS CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. WL LEAVE SMALL POP S CST/SRN CSTL WTRS AS COULD SEE SOME SHRA DVLP OVER WTR AND WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW MAY CLIP AREAS ALONG S CST. RUC AND GFS ALSO SHOW LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SRN AREAS OVERNIGHT. HAVE A LITTLE MORE SW SFC WIND TONIGHT AND THIS MAY LIMIT FOG A BIT BUT WL KEEP PATCHY MENTION IN PER RATHER SMALL TEMP/DWPT SPREAD. NO CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS. && .MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBSERVATIONS SHOW CURRENT FCST RUNNING ON TRACK WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. THE BULK OF THE SEAS CONSIST OF A 2 FT SE SWELL WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BOTH THE ETA/GFS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT WITH WIND SPEED FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST...CONTINUING THE NE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND SIMULATNEOUSLY GENERATE AN E SWELL. SEAS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT...MADE PRIMARILY OF A 6 SEC PERIOD E SWELL COMPONENT WITH ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT OF WIND CHOP. BY MON...THE NORTHERN HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES LOCALLY AND WINDS BECOME ESE THUS PRODUCING A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS INTO THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR VISIBILITY WILL DVLP LATER TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. $$ RF/SJ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1015 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 LOOKS LIKE ERN ND AND NW MN SHOULD BE SAFE THIS AFTN/EVE FROM ELEVATED SHOWERS WHICH PLAGUED THE AREA ON TUESDAY. RUC SHOWS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE 500-700 MB MOISTURE AROUND OVER SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WRN ND...BUT ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MAIN 700 MB FRONT YHAT WAS OVER SRN ND/NRN SD TUESDAY HAS WASHED OUT. THUS UPDATED ZFP/GRIDDS TO REMOVE MORNING PCPN SE ND/WCNTRL MN. UPPER FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THUS SPREADING SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTN...BUT ENOUGH HOLES SHOWING UP IN VSBL PIX TO MENTION SOME SUN IN MOST AREAS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SO LOOK FOR AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S PER FCST. NEW ETA SHOWING NEXT SYSTEM ON TARGET TO COME IN THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SVR STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN. SYSTEM STILL PROGRESSIVE. WHILE QUICK HEAVY RAINS (OVER 1 IN/6HR) CERTAINLY VERY PSBL...LONG TERM PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN DOESNT LOOK LIKELY. && .HYDROLOGY... REGION STILL PRETTY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HIT ANY ONE AREA WITH A GREATER PCPN THREAT THAN ANOTHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 1.50 INCHES AND THE OPEN GULF WILL KEEP A FLOODING THREAT POSSIBLE ...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ATTM. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 850 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... WELL DEFINED AND VERY SMALL-SCALE IMPULSE MOVING NEWD THRU CENT OK ATTM. THIS IMPULSE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ASCENT WITHIN SATURATED TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE A BIT OVER 500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CAP. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MINI SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES OR OTHER WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE CLOSING RAPIDLY ATTM ACROSS CENT SECTIONS OF OK AS IMPULSE MOVES NEWD AND ARC OF ENHANCED LIFT AND CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF OUN CWA. HOWEVER..MAIN UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER SOUTH TEXAS..WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE FEED IN PLACE ALONG WITH NEXT IMPULSE MOVING NNEWD. INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED PAST HOUR OVER OUR WRN NTEX COUNTIES WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY WITHIN PAST 2 HOURS PER HODOGRAPH FROM JAYTON WIND PROFILER SITE. SOME WEAK SHEAR HAS BEEN NOTED WITH CELLS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 45 KTS AND REORIENT FROM SW TO NE BY 06-09Z ACROSS MOST OF THE OUN CWA..WHICH WILL CONT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN ACTION THRU MUCH OF THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOP WITH ADDITIONAL RISK OF MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL SCALE SUPERCELLULAR SHOWERS/STORMS AND ATTENDANT TORNADO RISK OVERNIGHT AS LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL TROPICAL ENVIRON WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED. WE MIGHT ALSO NEED TO EXPAND/EXTENT HIGHER POPS FOR THUR MORNING ACROSS ERN ZONES BEFORE MAIN TROF AXIS FINALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF CWA BY 18Z. UPDATES ALREADY SENT. MILLER && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTHERN...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR CLAY COUNTY. && ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 337 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE...WHICH IS EAST AND NORTH OF PIVOTING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND WITHIN THE ALONG-STREAM VARIATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS REAR OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT OPPORTUNITY EXISTS OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN...WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 00-06Z STRONG ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY STRENGTHENING OF THE LEVEL JET...AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER JET FROM MISSOURI...SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS LIKELY OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BY 12Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO CHICKASHA...TO HENRIETTA. DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASCENT/COOLING EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE EXISTS A PERIOD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD INFLUENCE WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INSOLATION SHOULD BE LIMITED THURSDAY DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER. A REPEAT OF THURSDAY MAY OCCUR FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE POSSIBLY BEING MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE. BUT DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS THAN EXTENDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND/OR THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW POPS JUSTIFIED DURING ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH AIRMASS THEN MODIFYING BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRYLINE RE-DEVELOPING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 85 71 88 / 90 30 20 10 HOBART OK 70 87 70 90 / 60 20 20 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 85 71 89 / 80 10 20 10 GAGE OK 68 90 68 91 / 50 30 30 10 PONCA CITY OK 69 84 70 88 / 90 30 20 10 DURANT OK 70 84 72 88 / 100 30 10 10 && $$ JAMES EFFECTIVE 11 AM TUESDAY JUNE 15 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDOKC TO AFDOUN. THE WMO HEADER WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE COMPLETED BY JUNE 15 2004. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 337 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE...WHICH IS EAST AND NORTH OF PIVOTING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND WITHIN THE ALONG-STREAM VARIATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS REAR OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT OPPORTUNITY EXISTS OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN...WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 00-06Z STRONG ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY STRENGTHENING OF THE LEVEL JET...AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER JET FROM MISSOURI...SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS LIKELY OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BY 12Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO CHICKASHA...TO HENRIETTA. DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASCENT/COOLING EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE EXISTS A PERIOD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD INFLUENCE WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INSOLATION SHOULD BE LIMITED THURSDAY DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER. A REPEAT OF THURSDAY MAY OCCUR FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE POSSIBLY BEING MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE. BUT DURING THIS PERIOD...THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS THAN EXTENDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND/OR THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW POPS JUSTIFIED DURING ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH AIRMASS THEN MODIFYING BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRYLINE RE-DEVELOPING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 85 71 88 / 90 30 20 10 HOBART OK 70 87 70 90 / 60 20 20 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 85 71 89 / 80 10 20 10 GAGE OK 68 90 68 91 / 50 30 30 10 PONCA CITY OK 69 84 70 88 / 90 30 20 10 DURANT OK 70 84 72 88 / 100 30 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTHERN...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR CLAY COUNTY. && $$ JAMES EFFECTIVE 11 AM TUESDAY JUNE 15 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDOKC TO AFDOUN. THE WMO HEADER WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE COMPLETED BY JUNE 15 2004. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE VORT FURTHER SOUTH ACRS GA THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH RUC LOOKING TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE THAN 06Z SHORT RANGE MODELS...DRIFTING IT ENE FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEAN FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL LIFT THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE... PROBABLY JUST SOME SPOKES OF WEAK DPVA CIRCULATING AROUND THE WAVE. AT ANY RATE STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CVRG BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LEAST IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ROUGHLY BASED ON MEAN RH GRADIENT. PWATS ON OBSERVED 12Z SNDGS ABOUT 125% OF NORMAL AND WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH BREAKS IN THE WEST LIKELY TO FILL IN THROUGH MIDDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS INTERACTION OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH...PERSISTENT SURFACE CONVERGENT AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PW/S IN EXCESS OF 130% OF NORMAL SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. IN FACT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE CWFA... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH OF I-40. THEREFORE...WILL START OUT THE MORNING WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS ONCE AGAIN THAT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE CONVERGENT AXIS...AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LEE TROUGH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PLUS...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES REMAIN QUITE MOIST TOMORROW...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR AREA IS A THREAT FOR CONVECTION ORGANIZING ALONG THE FRONT...THEN RIDING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THIS THREAT. THE 00Z ETA SLIPS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE BACKDOOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THAT IT'S EARLY JUNE...HAVE SOME SUSPICIONS ABOUT THIS OCCURRING...AND WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH EVEN IT BACKDOORS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST TOKEN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWEST. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PAST FRIDAY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ CSH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... OHX RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA. GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF NUMBER. LATEST RUC RUN SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BOYD 01 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1030 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... LAPS DATA VOID OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WITH UPPER AIR PATTERN ANTI-PRECIP. HOWEVER...UPDATE WITH RUC AND META MODELS SHOW WIND BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY...TOUCHING OFF LOCAL QPF. BEST CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS IN THE PLATEAU. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME...JUST UPDATE FOR WORDING. && .BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 04 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1055 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE VOLUME 2: WILL CLEAN UP ZONE WORDING...DROP THE FFA AND LOWER POPS EASTERN ZONES. SOME CONCERN WITH AN AREA OF STORMS OVER LBB CWA BUT FEEL THIS CONVECTION WILL WANE BEFORE REACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE OTHER AREA IS NEAR LAREDO BUT THIS COMPLEX IS MOVING SOUTH AND DON'T FEEL IT WILL BE A PLAYER EITHER. NEW ZONES/GRIDS OUT BY MIDNIGHT. 43 && LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS PUSHING N-NE. THIS COMPLEX IS CLIPPING BURLESON COUNTY AND A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THERE. ELSEWHERE...JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MOVING INTO FTW CWA BUT OF SOME CONCERN ARE THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN EWX EASTERN CWA. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING THE FFA UP OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER S/WV CLEARLY VISIBILE IN W-VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD SE TEXAS AND THINK ANOTHER FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. BOTH THE ETA/RUC SHOW PRECIP EXPANDING EAST OVERNIGHT. 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS BETWEEN 14-16C. THE PRECIP AREA IS ALIGNED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM CRP TO DFW. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONGLY DIVERGENT. PW'S ARE STILL BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAIN STILL A THREAT. WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE AND WILL LIKELY MAKE SOME CHANGES ONCE THIS FIRST CONVECTIVE BURST ENDS AND TRENDS WITH NEXT S/WV BECOME MORE EVIDENT. 43/40 && PREVIOUS: WE SHALL EXTEND AND REDEFINE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RIDGE INCHING EAST TO THAT REGION TONIGHT...WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REDEFINED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A NORMANGEE...PRAIRIE VIEW...WHARTON...MATAGORDA LINE. FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...WE CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSH NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND TOWARD END OF WEEK. MODELS INDICATE TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CWFA TOMORROW AND BECAUSE OF THIS...WE SHALL KEEP POPS TO AT LEAST 50 PERCENT. WEAK SHEAR ZONE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER REGION TOWARD END OF WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND WITH UPPER HIGH OVER OLD MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF GULF. POPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD AFTER TOMORROW AS 500 HEIGHTS INCREASE AND PWATS DECREASE. GFS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS THEN DEVELOPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY WITH TROUGH HANGING ON SAME REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR THE MARINE...UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS W/WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS KEEPING UP DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. BAYS WILL BE MARGINAL...HENCE WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH CAUTION FOR THOSE AREAS. 37/47 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SCA COASTAL WATERS 0-60 NM. SCEC BAYS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 87 75 91 73 / 70 50 30 30 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 88 76 90 76 / 40 50 30 30 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 85 79 87 80 / 30 50 30 30 30 && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 840 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS PUSHING N-NE. THIS COMPLEX IS CLIPPING BURLESON COUNTY AND A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THERE. ELSEWHERE...JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MOVING INTO FTW CWA BUT OF SOME CONCERN ARE THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN EWX EASTERN CWA. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING THE FFA UP OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER S/WV CLEARLY VISIBILE IN W-VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD SE TEXAS AND THINK ANOTHER FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. BOTH THE ETA/RUC SHOW PRECIP EXPANDING EAST OVERNIGHT. 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS BETWEEN 14-16C. THE PRECIP AREA IS ALIGNED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM CRP TO DFW. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONGLY DIVERGENT. PW'S ARE STILL BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAIN STILL A THREAT. WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE AND WILL LIKELY MAKE SOME CHANGES ONCE THIS FIRST CONVECTIVE BURST ENDS AND TRENDS WITH NEXT S/WV BECOME MORE EVIDENT. 43/40 && PREVIOUS: WE SHALL EXTEND AND REDEFINE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RIDGE INCHING EAST TO THAT REGION TONIGHT...WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REDEFINED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A NORMANGEE...PRAIRIE VIEW...WHARTON...MATAGORDA LINE. FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...WE CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSH NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND TOWARD END OF WEEK. MODELS INDICATE TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CWFA TOMORROW AND BECAUSE OF THIS...WE SHALL KEEP POPS TO AT LEAST 50 PERCENT. WEAK SHEAR ZONE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER REGION TOWARD END OF WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND WITH UPPER HIGH OVER OLD MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF GULF. POPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD AFTER TOMORROW AS 500 HEIGHTS INCREASE AND PWATS DECREASE. GFS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS THEN DEVELOPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY WITH TROUGH HANGING ON SAME REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR THE MARINE...UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS W/WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS KEEPING UP DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. BAYS WILL BE MARGINAL...HENCE WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH CAUTION FOR THOSE AREAS. 37/47 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF NORMANGEE...PRAIRIE VIEW... WHARTON...MATAGORDA LINE (TENTATIVE...SEE UPCOMING FFAHGX). SCA FOR BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS 0-60 NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 87 75 91 73 / 70 50 30 30 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 88 76 90 76 / 50 50 30 30 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 85 79 87 80 / 50 50 30 30 30 && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 955 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO MOVING INTO HIDALGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO TO LA PESCA. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TX. RUC 1000-500MB RH/STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO TX. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGES AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AND OVER THE PLAINS OF THE PANHANDLE. WITH 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ADJUST GRIDS AND UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. && .MARINE...RADAR DEPICTED JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL PUSHING UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST. BUOY 020 REPORTED SEAS OF 8 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THAT PERIOD. && .AVIATION...THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE AND A MVFR LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THE 12Z KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.36 INCHES...QUITE HIGH. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 25 KNOTS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE H5 LOW OVER THE BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THUS...AT LEAST ONE INGREDIENT... INSTABILITY...WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE RAINMAKING EQUATION FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SOME DRY AIR DOES SEEM TO BE FILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW...SO DRYING ALOFT...IF NOT AT LOWER LEVELS...ALSO APPEARS TO BE ON TAP. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THERE TODAY. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS THE H5 LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE COUNTRY BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ALLOWS RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO SHIFT SOUTH AND BEAR MORE DIRECTLY ON THE NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE WEST COST AND INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY MORE TROPICAL ACTIVITY. AS H5 RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF WEAKNESS FORMS OVER THE WEST GULF. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE RELEASE AIR OF CONTINENTAL POLAR ORIGIN FROM CANADA AND...ALTHOUGH AIR MASS DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS COLD SEASON DIFFERENCES...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION TO BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ 61/69/VEGA THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1019 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SYNOPSIS... HI PRESS ALG THE CST AND ALOFT THIS AFTN. && .DISCUSSION... ADDED A SLIGHT CHC TO PARTS OF THE SE THIS AFTN. LOOKED AT AM SOUNDINGS AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTN HI IN THE LOW 90S AND DPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WSETA AND RUC SUPPORT A WEAK BOUNDARY WITH SOME CONVG OVR SE AND WITH SEABREEZE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A SLGT CHC THIS PM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SBY 90 70 87 64 / 10 10 50 40 OXB 84 70 83 64 / 10 10 50 40 WAL 88 72 84 66 / 10 10 40 40 FVX 92 69 89 67 / 20 10 40 40 RIC 92 70 90 68 / 10 10 40 40 PTB 92 70 91 68 / 10 10 40 40 AKQ 91 70 91 68 / 10 10 40 30 PHF 91 72 90 69 / 10 10 40 40 ORF 90 73 90 70 / 10 10 30 30 ECG 89 72 89 70 / 20 10 30 30 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. && $$ 92 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 846 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .UPDATE... MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND FRONT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP NOCTURNALLY? FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM N OF KALO TO N OF KPDC /LANSING IA/ BACK SOUTHEAST TO KLNR AND S OF KMSN. THIS IS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE KARX RADAR ECHOES THROUGH IA/WI AT 01Z. MOST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS AGREE WITH OUR FORECAST OF GENERALLY BRINGING THE FRONT SOUTH FINALLY PLACING IT ON WI/IL BORDER AND EAST-WEST BY SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH ABOUT 1200 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THIS REGIME AT 01Z. WOULD EXPECT THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST WITH THE CONVECTIVE AREA SLOWING ORIENTING MORE EAST-WEST WITH THE FRONT WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING. THE 18Z ETA AND 21Z RUC BOTH PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ALL BEGINNING TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST PER BLR AND SLATER PROFILERS /850 AND 925 MB/. THESE MODELS VEER THE FLOW TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL REDUCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT AND INITIATION OVER THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT. IT WOULD APPEAR THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH INTO THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL THE VIGOR WILL BE THERE WITH THESE STORMS LIKE LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT...AND LESS INSTABILITY. SO...FEEL THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT HAD RAIN IN TWO DAYS. WOULD BELIEVE MOST AREAS ON AND NORTH OF I-90 ARE IN THE CLEAR AND SHOULD NOT SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FLOOD WATCH ENDING TIME /1 AM/...JUST TO MAKE SURE MORE STORMS DONT AGGRAVATE THIS AREA. WILL NOT CANCEL IT AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT SHORTLY WITH RAINFALL REPORTS. && .ARX...WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES... IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 AM... IAZ008>011. MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 AM... MNZ079-086>088-094>096. WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 AM... WIZ032>034-041-042-053-054. && $$ BAUMGARDT wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 745 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .UPDATE...UPR SHRTWV AND RRQ OF UPR JET HEADED TOWARD SE CANADA SUPPORTING SFC WV HEADING EWD ALONG FRONT STALLED OVER SRN WI. ONLY THE 18Z GFS SEEMED TO HAVE ANY CLUE THIS WAS OCCURRING. IN ANY CASE...LARGE AREA OF RN WL WORK EWD ACRS THE SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND STLT TRENDS. PCPN SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SFC WV PASSES OFF TO THE E AND THE FRONT STARTS TO HEAD SWD AGAIN. UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE ALREADY OUT. .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THU...AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI AS SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE SO WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY PERIODS. FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL BY MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. DRIER NORTHEAST WILL BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...THUS WILL END PCPN FROM N TO S THIS EVENING. EXPECT GRADIANT TO STAY UP SOME...SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME. RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD IN ON THU AHEAD OF TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND KEEP THU DRY...THOUGH WITH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES WARMER NORTH. TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHING WI THURSDAY NIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WI AND A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STATE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WI AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WI SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES TO GET PRECIPITATION GOING FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SKOWRONSKI WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 345 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THU...AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI AS SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE SO WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY PERIODS. FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL BY MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. DRIER NORTHEAST WILL BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...THUS WILL END PCPN FROM N TO S THIS EVENING. EXPECT GRADIANT TO STAY UP SOME...SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME. RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD IN ON THU AHEAD OF TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND KEEP THU DRY...THOUGH WITH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES WARMER NORTH. TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHING WI THURSDAY NIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WI AND A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STATE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WI AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WI SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES TO GET PRECIPITATION GOING FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MG/TE WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 358 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN ROCKIES. A NUMBER OF VORT CENTERS EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...JUST SOUTH OF +125KT JET OBSERVED AT 300MB. ONE DEPARTING OVER NORTHERN OHIO...WITH OTHERS APPROACHING FROM WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...GENERALLY BETWEEN M-59/I-94...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH WITH WARM IR CLOUD TOPS AND NO LIGHTNING STRIKES PICKED UP BY LDN. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PACKAGE IS AROUND PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FIRST THREE PERIODS...AS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE CWA. INITIALLY TODAY...ETA/GFS BOTH DROP THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z. HOWEVER...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 03Z RUC40 PICKS UP ON THIS LACK OF MOVEMENT AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH F12/15Z. 00Z 10KM TAQ-RUC SHOWS THE SAME THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING IT SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS LACK OF MOVEMENT WILL HAVE A NUMBER OF IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST...FROM TEMPERATURES TO PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER INITIALLY THIS MORNING...INSTABILITY HAS PRETTY MUCH BEEN WORKED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL OVER 1.6 INCHES AND 1000-500MB RH >85 PERCENT. SHOWER INTENSITY/COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED FOLLOWING THE FIRST UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO OHIO... ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE WISCONSIN ENERGY. OTHERWISE THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS GOING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REEXPAND WITHIN A FEW HOURS AS THE WISCONSIN WAVE APPROACHES...AND WILL START THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. NO MENTION OF THUNDER INITIALLY...AS WE LACK THE INSTABILITY YET. RADARS TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOW AN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIELD MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI. ALSO NO LIGHTNING PICKED UP WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIP RECENTLY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE MORNING...AND INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND AN AIRMASS THAT IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE. WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AS THE REGION REMAINS CLOUDY AND RAIN COOLED...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET THUNDER. EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIMITED FACTORS SUCH AS INSTABILITY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT SEEING PRECIP GIVEN A SLOWER TIMING TO THE SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL WIND FIELD...WE SHOULD NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SEE SEVERE WEATHER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL REALLY KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. BAX/P58 QUICKLY DROPPED INTO THE 50S THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A COLD AND DAMP DAY ACROSS THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY. DROPPED TEMPERATURES A NUMBER OF DEGREES. ACTUALLY A LOT OF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE SHOWING NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A FEW DEGREE DIURNAL SPREAD...CONSIDERING IT IS JUNE AND ONLY A FEW WEEKS FROM THE SOLSTICE. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS KEEP THE 850MB FRONT PRETTY MUCH ANCHORED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS A FARTHER NORTH TREND COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...AND HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS ON MCS DEVELOPMENT. ETA/GFS BOTH DEVELOP A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND FOLD IT OVER TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE JET...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THIS SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF US...WITH THE COMPLEX TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE CWA. ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW THE HAPPENING...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT. ETA IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER /MAINLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY/...WITH THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER /MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN/OHIO VALLEY/. HAD TO PINPOINT THE FAVORED SOLUTION. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT HAS CONVECTIVE ISSUES...WITH THE CANADIAN CLOSER TO THE ETA SOLUTION AND SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z TAQ-RUC. ALSO LEANING TOWARD THE ETA GIVEN DEVELOPMENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT COMPARED TO THE BOUNDARY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER...WITH ONLY MORE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...WE FACE MORE OF A PROBLEM WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING/BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND CONSEQUENTLY WHICH AREAS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. MANY AREAS RECEIVED AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND THE SOUTH HAS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY. NO BIG CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CUT BACK ON TEMPS A NUMBER OF DEGREES FRIDAY/SATURDAY...DELAYING THE WARM UP A BIT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THAT TAKES LONGER TO SCOUR OUT. OTHERWISE GIVEN FALLING HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LOW CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 409 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOIST TROPICAL FLOW. EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS MOVES EAST. EXPECT TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DID LEAVE IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...AS PROGGED MCS OVER NEBRASKA INTO IOWA APPROACHES. DIVERGENT MODEL THICKNESS LINES AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER REINTRODUCED 30 POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAP MAY HOLD...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE VERY UNSTABLE AND CAP TO BE VERY SMALL. BOTH GFS AND ETA MODELS PROG THE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...FELT LOW POPS WERE WARRANTED. BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SLOWLY SO HAVE CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. NRR && .PREV DISCUSSION... 915 PM WED... EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KS BACK INTO NORTH TX. VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EVENING RAOBS INDICATING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES THROUGHOUT DEPTH OF TROPOSPHERE AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA AS VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF AREA...AND AS A RESULT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. NEXT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OK...AND HAS GENERATED CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO SPREAD BACK INTO CWA LATER ON TONIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CWA...THEN ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN SHEAR AXIS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ETA/RUC MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SEAMAN 340 PM WED... TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...WITH SHEAR AXIS DELINEATING AREA OF MOST PRONOUNCED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK OCCURRING IN PRECIPITATION AT TIME...WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING PASSAGE OF ONE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE SHEAR ZONE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL PLUME OR CHANGE IN ORIENTATION IN THE SHEAR ZONE...THUS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAPS AND FORECAST ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES...THUS KEPT THUNDER WORDING TO ISOLATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS UNTIL 18Z. A LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ATTENDANT PLUME AND SHEAR ZONE TO MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS BACKED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREA. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP IGNITE STORMS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL CAP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THUS ONLY KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER WHICH WILL LIE ALONG CAPS NORTHERN EDGE. RIGHT NOW...HAVE DEVELOPED FORECAST WITH IDEA THAT CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...WILL HAVE WATCH SITUATION CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE VARIANCE OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL RECOVER A LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. PINNING DOWN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN THE WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADD COMPLEXITY TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ETA BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS ON SATURDAY TO COVER POTENTIAL IMPULSE-INITIATED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NOCTURNAL/LLJ CONVECTION TO ENTER NORTHWEST MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE BEHAVIOR...MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...IT IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TIMING OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MOSTLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION...BUT THE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (AS AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE) AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS). SF/LS 1143 AM WED... UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPS AND ETA20 SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...SO DID A QUICK UPDATE OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH. SF && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 420 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... CDFNT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH CWA. RUC MDL IS VERY SLOW...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW BASED ON STRENGTH OF HI THAT WL BLD IN. PLENTY OF MSTR BEHIND THE CDFNT...THUS WENT HI POPS ALL DAY. ATTM THUNDER LIMITED BUT THAT SHOULD INCR SOME AS THE MRNG GOES ON AS DYNAMICS GET GOING AGAIN. ATTM NO MENTION OF SVR IN THE ZONES BECAUSE OF ALL THE CLDS. THU NGT AND FRI TOUGH...PLENTY OF MSTR WITH SOME DYNAMICS OFF AND ON. WENT HI POPS MOST PLACES EXCEPT NW PA BASED ON MSTR PATTERN AND UVV. MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. HI PRECIPTABLE WATER...SITUATION WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A PSBL FLOOD WATCH THU NGT OR FRI. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ KIELTYKA oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 300 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON...DRUM ROLL PLEASE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES. I SEEM TO RECALL CONCERNS ABOUT...WHAT DO THEY CALL IT WHEN YOU DON/T HAVE A LOT OF RAIN FOR A LONG TIME...DROUGHT?...OVER THE PAST YEAR. WELL...THE REGION HAS MADE UP FOR LOST TIME...AND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LOOK TO BRING EVEN MORE RAIN. AS IT HAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON WHERE THE RAIN FALLS. ETA/GFS 00Z MODELS REASONABLY CLOSE...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY. ITS RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH THE ETA A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AS IT BRINGS IT BACK NORTH TONIGHT. THIS...HOWEVER... WOULD BRING A SWATH OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/S MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD STILL KEEP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE BETTER RAINS WOULD FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITHIN ITSELF OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...WHILE THE ETA HAS JUMPED AROUND. STILL...WITH THE MYRIAD OF SMALL SCALE INFLUENCES THAT COULD PUSH THE FRONT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...NOT TO MENTION THE MCV GENERATED FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS...DON/T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN DIVING HEADFIRST WITH EITHER THE ETA OR GFS. WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...DON/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE TOO MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT ALREADY IS...GIVEN THE CONVECTION ALREADY GOING ON. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE ETA. AT 07Z THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAN ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN ILL. 88-D IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN IA AND WESTERN ILL...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WERE SCATTERED NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT MOSTLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN WI. SOOOOO...AS FOR TODAY...PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE FRONT THIS MORNING...EVEN PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED MORE PCPN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT ITSELF COULD GET A PUSH A BIT MORE SOUTH FROM THE CONVECTION...BUT DON/T EXPECT IT TO MOVE TOO FAR. MODELS PICK UP ON AN MCV SPAWNED FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND BRING THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST INTO THE FRONT BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THIS WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST SHOWER/STORM WILL THEREFORE BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR THE EVENING...BEFORE THE RAIN EXITS EAST OVERNIGHT. AT 500 MB...THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN JUST WEST WILL WORK OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHILE A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW WILL HOVER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION...BUT WILL SLIDE YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PLAINS...APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES INTO THE BOUNDARY...WHILE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. SBCAPES COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE 3000 J/KG...WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR IN THE FAVORABLE 30 KT RANGE. WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THOSE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE NORTH-SOUTH EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THIS LINE SHOULD LIMIT THE TRAINING POSSIBILITIES. FOR MORE ON HYDRO...SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. OVERALL...LOOKING FOR MORE WET CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY...MORE SO FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL ON ACCOUNT OF THE CLOUDS/PCPN AND EASTERLY WINDS...MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE MOST PART. FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN...AND SHORT TERM TRENDS ON PCPN AND PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THEN FOR FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING A SHOT FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEST CHANCE FOR THAT LOOKS TO BE IN THE EVENING. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LATEST DGEX/GFS SLIDE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND...SO SYSTEMS SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER THEN THEY HAVE RECENTLY. YET ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...THESE NEXT COUPLE SYSTEM DON/T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN...AS THEIR SPEED MOVES THEM IN AND OUT QUICKLY. ONGOING FORECAST HAS THESE TRENDS AND WILL MAKE MINIMAL...IF ANY CHANGES. && .HYDROLOGY... THE AREA TOOK ANOTHER BEATING RAIN-WISE YESTERDAY...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/TOTALS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO PARTS OF WESTERN WI. MORE RAIN IS CERTAINLY NOT NEEDED. WITH THE ETA/GFS DIFFERING IN THEIR QPF...CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN...HEAVY PCPN...IS NOT HIGH. THE DEVELOPMENTAL RUC SUPPORTS THE ETA QPF...ALTHOUGH THIS DRUC CAN BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...THE ETA/GFS BOTH POINT TO KEEPING THE BETTER PCPN MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA/S THAT GOT SOAKED YESTERDAY. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH AT THIS MOMENT. RATHER...WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY IF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS NORTH. && .ARX...WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ RIECK wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 915 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE BREAKING UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX CENTERED NEAR SAVANNAH WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS MY CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING VERY UNSTABLE BUT A LITTLE DRIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE VALDOSTA REGION AND THE EASTERN BIG BEND LOOK IN LINE AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON. && BARRY .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 240 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HANG IN OVERNIGHT IN THE APALACHEE BAY AND IN THE WESTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EARLY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED. OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS CONSTANT AS SURFACE RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF STATES. && .SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR HIT OR MISS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZES FROM THE GULF COAST AND THE EAST COAST SHOULD ENABLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY FLATTEN OUT SOME WITH LITTLE EFFECT OF THE WEATHER...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH...VEERING WINDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH WED. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 6 (TUE) WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FL AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS FL, S OF THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS NECESSARY THROUGH TUE. BY WED, THE GFSX BEGINS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION PHASE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER FL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. IT IS FAIRLY UNUSUAL TO SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS FAR S IN JUNE, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WE WILL FOLLOW THE GFSX SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT INTO NRN GA AND CENTRAL AL ON WED. THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO STAY WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH THE GFSX DOES INDICATE FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CAUTION STAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 90 71 91 72 / 40 30 40 20 PFN 87 75 87 75 / 30 20 30 20 DHN 90 73 89 73 / 40 30 40 20 ABY 88 72 90 72 / 40 30 40 20 VLD 88 71 90 72 / 50 30 40 20 CTY 87 71 88 72 / 50 30 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ BOLINSKI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1115 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS. MAINLY MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES. OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS AND A SMALL CHUNK OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROMPTED FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ALLEN, WILSON, AND WESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THESE PRODUCTS EXPIRE AROUND NOON, SO WILL MAKE SOME CALLS SHORTLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND WARNINGS FURTHER. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KS, EVIDENT VIA WIND PROFILERS. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OK. CONSEQUENTLY, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE TURNPIKE DUE TO DRIER MID-LEVELS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS DROPPING WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES, AND THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 7 PM. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO THE WEST, PER 12Z RAOBS, WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND THOROUGHLY CAP THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING THE CAP, DUE TO PROXIMITY TO DRYLINE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD DECK SCATTERING OUT BY MID AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS NOTION. HOWEVER, CAP MAY HOLD IF LOW CLOUDS PREVENT FULL HEATING. COULD VERY WELL BE UNTIL AFTER DARK THAT ANYTHING CAN GET GOING, BUT EVEN THEN CAP MAY BE TOO STRONG AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION. KLEINSASSER --------------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 330 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHRA CHANCES EARLY THU AND THEN SVR WX CHCS THU NIGHT INTO SUN. THU: WET CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND DECREASE THIS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST AS A NUMBER OF WEAK WAVES MOVE UP FROM OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA INTO MO AND AR LATE THIS AFTN. THERE MAY BE AN ISO RUMBLE OF THUNDER EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SVR OUT OF IT. STRONG S/WV STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON THU WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE SETTING UP ACROSS WRN KS DURING THE AFTN, MOVING INTO CNTRL KS BY EVENING. WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL KEEP AREAS OF CNTRL KS CAPPED DURING THE AFTN BUT CAP EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. BEST CHC OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL KS. WITH LOWER LCL'S AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER EAST, BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A WINDOW DURING THE EVENING OF A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE BACKED AT THE SFC. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE WRN CWA AND SCHC IN SERN KS, ALTHOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SERN KS MAY BE SPARED STORMS UNTIL LATER OF FRI. FRI: MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN STALLING DRYLINE OVER CNTRL KS ON FRI, MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. WILL BE LOTS OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE IN SERN KS FOR FRI AFTN TSRA POTENTIAL. CAP WILL BE WEAKER ON THIS DAY, SO INITIATION LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS ERN KS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WEAKER DYNAMICS OVERALL ON FRI AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES LOOK MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HAIL/WIND THE MORE LIKELY SVR WX THREAT AT THIS TIME. SAT-SUN: FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT TO ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. THE DRY LINE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS CNTRL KS BY AFTN. SHOULD BE STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN WITH STORMS MOST LIKELY TO GET GOING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM SOUTH FROM THERE ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ATMOS WILL BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND MODELS SEEM TO DICTATE MCS FORMING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE/KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON SUN, SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MOVE THRU CWA DURING THE DAY AS IT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY A MID-LVL S/WV. SVR POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN MAY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS SAT NIGHT AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE ATMOS IS ABLE TO RECOVER. WL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS THIS WEEKEND MAY NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS TIME DRAWS NEAR. MON-WED: LATEST GFS DOES NOT WANT TO PUSH SFC BOUNDARY INTO OK BUT RATHER LIFT IT BACK NORTH IN THE AFTN ON MON AS A WARM FRONT. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR NOW. BELIEVE BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED INTO OK BY MID-LVL S/WV SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES MORE NWRLY ON MON-TUE WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON WEDNESDAY WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP AREA DRY UNTIL I SEE MORE CONSISTENCY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA 83 70 89 68 / 20 20 20 20 HUTCHINSON 87 70 89 68 / 20 20 10 20 NEWTON 85 70 89 68 / 20 20 10 20 ELDORADO 82 69 89 68 / 30 20 20 20 STROTHER FIELD 82 71 89 69 / 30 20 20 20 RUSSELL 89 69 89 67 / 10 30 10 10 GREAT BEND 88 69 89 68 / 10 30 5 10 SALINA 89 71 89 69 / 20 30 10 10 MCPHERSON 87 70 89 68 / 20 20 10 20 COFFEYVILLE 81 70 89 69 / 50 20 20 20 CHANUTE 81 69 89 67 / 50 20 20 20 IOLA 81 69 88 67 / 50 20 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 5/SEDLOCK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1048 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE ARE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF CANADIAN MARITIME. A LARGE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ANOTHER LOW IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN LOW. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND IS CLIMBING NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. INSTABILITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER DAKOTAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING WITH A LOW EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND IS OVER EASTERN KANSAS IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. AT THE SURFACE A LARGE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO IS KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVER THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND EXTEND FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WISCONSIN INTO MANITOBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO JAMES BAY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE...AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE MENOMINEE HAS SOME LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDING STILL SHOWS THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE THE MENOMINEE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THEIR FORECAST. ETA FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 4 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECASTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT HEATING. HOWEVER...MAY BUMP A FEW TEMPERATURES UP. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1008 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE CLEARING TREND GET. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS ALREADY PRODUCING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT A LOT OF CLOUDS ARE LINGERING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS FINALLY SETTLED SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE. I EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOIST NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY DELAY THE CLEARING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE AREA OF SHOWERS ON KDTX RADAR. THIS PCPN IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RUC TRACKS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BASED ON THIS TREND...I WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO. WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED DELAY IN CLEARING. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS. THE REAL FORECAST PROBLEM IS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MAY NOT PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING EARLIER MODELS RUNS WERE ADVERTISING. THE GFS IS EVEN HINTING PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH THE LEAST AND RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT. WE WILL HOLD OFF NOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH ONLY 20 POPS BUT WILL HAVE TO GO FOR MORE CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EVEN INTO PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES. FRIDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE WITH 40 TO 50 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EVEN 30 POPS FOR SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON THE GFS FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 125 KNOTS 250 MB JET FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FORTUNATELY WE WILL BE ABLE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT THE FINGER LAKES AREA NORTHEASTWARD. IN FACT THE NORTH COUNTRY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD FREE FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR PARTS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES BUT NO MUCH WORRY ABOUT FROST AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS MORE CLOSELY TODAY. THE ETA IS A LITTLE LATER WITH THIS PROBLEMATIC WARM FRONTAL RAIN THREAT BUT IT HOLDS ONTO IT LONGER LONGER ONCE IT GETS INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. WE WILL STICK CLOSER TO CONTINUITY AND THE GFS AND KEEP RAIN OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY AS A CENTRAL GREAT LAKES RIDGE BUILDS EAST. NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THAT'S ALL FOR NOW. ZONES SHOULD BE OUT CLOSE TO 4 AM. AVIATION DISCUSSION... A PSEUDO-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE WILL VERY SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY ABOUT 15Z. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION FROM JAMES BAY. .BUF...NONE. $$ PUBLIC...TJP/SAGE AVIATION/MARINE...RSH ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1144 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS COVER LARGE PART OF FCST AREA AND AREAS TO THE WEST. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES FOR THE AFTN HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... CDFNT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH CWA. RUC MDL IS VERY SLOW...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW BASED ON STRENGTH OF HI THAT WL BLD IN. PLENTY OF MSTR BEHIND THE CDFNT...THUS WENT HI POPS ALL DAY. ATTM THUNDER LIMITED BUT THAT SHOULD INCR SOME AS THE MRNG GOES ON AS DYNAMICS GET GOING AGAIN. ATTM NO MENTION OF SVR IN THE ZONES BECAUSE OF ALL THE CLDS. THU NGT AND FRI TOUGH...PLENTY OF MSTR WITH SOME DYNAMICS OFF AND ON. WENT HI POPS MOST PLACES EXCEPT NW PA BASED ON MSTR PATTERN AND UVV. MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. HI PRECIPTABLE WATER...SITUATION WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A PSBL FLOOD WATCH THU NGT OR FRI. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ KIELTYKA/BM oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1013 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK RIDGING TO THE S OF APCHG MID ATLC COLD FRONT. MOISTURE HOWEVER PLENTIFUL WITH MODIFIED RAOBS ALSO INDICATING DECENT INSTAB PENDING AMOUNT OF HEATING OUTSIDE MID DECK ESPCLY W EARLY ON. APPEARS BEST SCTD TSRA CHCS INITIALLY OVER THE NW PER CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK S/W ENERGY SPILLING OVER AND DIFF HEATING...THEN E LATER WHERE WEAK LEE TROF MAY ALLOW MORE FOCUS. THIS SUPPORTED BY BOTH ETA/RUC WHICH HAVE SOME UVV AFTER 18Z WRN TIER AS MAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY STAYS N CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SHORT MULTICELLULAR TYPE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS IN ORDER...OTRW MOST OF THE PULSE WIND VARIETY AT THE ONSET GIVEN SUCH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. THUS PLAN TO CONT BEST HIGH CHC POPS NW WHILE TAPERING TO LOW CHC SE WHERE SUBSIDENCE MAY WIN OUT TIL LATE. 12Z THICKNESS SHOWING HIGH TEMPS ARND 90 SE AND GNRLY 78-85 W. THINK EARLY CLOUDS W TO LIMIT RISES SO WILL ONLY TWEAK UP IN SPOTS ESPCLY NW NC RIDGES WHERE ALRDY CLOSE TO HIGHS ATTM. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 330 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS... FCST FOCUS ON SHORT TERM WITH TSRA DVLPMNT TNGT AND POTENTIAL HVY RA AND RESULTING FLOODING. SFC BNDRY JUST N OF VPZ TO DPA TO JUST N OF DBQ...AND HAS MOVD LTL DURG DAY. AREA OF MAINLY -RA CONTS TO SLOLY NEWRD THRU NRN IL INTO SRR WI AS SHORT WAV SHEARS NE INTO UPR RDG. HEAVIER RA THIS A.M. PUT DOWN UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME NERN IL. TSRA CONT TO DVLP ACROSS CNTRL IL AND SWRN IA SSWWRD ACROSS MOST OF MO IN WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED GOOD SFC HEATING AND RESULTING DESTABALIZATION AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAV CURRENTLY LIFTING NNE FM ERN OK AND NEB. THIS SHORT WAV FCST TO MOV NE AND INTO W CNTRL IL DURG THIS EVE...ENHANCING LO LVL CONVERCENGE ALONG AND LIFT OVR BNDRY ACROSS NRN IL. WHILE OVERALL DURATION OF HVY RA EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWAT LIMITED...PRECIP WATER OF 2+ INCHES SUGGESTS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS PSBL SO WILL POST FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY N OF FREEPORT TO VALPARAISO LN FOR TNGT. SHORT WAV TO CROSS THRU NERL IL DUR EARLY FRI MORNING ENDING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...THO MAIN STEM PROBLEMS TO LINGER IF QPF POTENTIAL REALIZED. WRN PORTION OF BNDRY LIFTS NWRD AS UPR TROF ROTATES ACROSS NRN PLAINS...WHILE BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS NRN IL. UPR SUPPORT MISSING BUT WITH BNDRY ACROSS AREA FRI WL CONT CHC TSTA. .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT N OF FEP-VPZ LN. IN...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT N OF FEP-VPZ LN. LK MI...NONE. $$ .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS... NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIGHT ACROSS HEART OF FCST AREA THIS NOON HOUR...WITH 17Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING FEATURE FROM IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF KRFD...TO BETWEEN KDPA AND KORD...TO JUST NORTH OF KMDW AND KGYY. IFR/LIFR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MVFR/VFR TO THE SOUTH. POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT LOCATION OF IFR CONDITIONS MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT 18-20 HOURS OR SO WITH SIG IMPACT ON TERMINALS. ON THE LARGER SCALE...RUC H7 ANALYSIS AND SAT LOOPS INDICATE ONE S/WV SHEARING THROUGH IA/WRN IL INTO UPPER RIDGE...WITH SFC PRES FALLS ALONG/NORTH OF FNT. THIS HAS ALLOWED WHAT LITTLE MOVEMENT OF FRONT THERE IS TO BE NORTHWARD...WITH FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH KMDW LAST 2 HOURS. WITH FRONT ALMOST ON TOP OF KORD BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES THIS AFTN. WITH WAVE SHEARING INTO SRN WI BY 00Z...EXPECT ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD PROGRESSION TO BE MINIMAL...THOUGH LIKELY WILL GET OVER OR THROUGH KORD. THUS HAVE PLAYED TAFS THIS WAY...WITH WINDS COMING AROUND SW FOR AFTN HOURS AND IMPROVEMENT IN CIG/VIS TO VFR/OCNL MVFR. 2ND S/WV LIFTING OUT OF SRN PLAINS PROGGED INTO AREA TONIGHT...WITH GFS/ETA BOTH DEVELOPING VERTICAL MOTION MAX AROUND 06Z. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE MINIMUM IN RA THREAT DURING EARLY EVE HOURS BEFORE THIS SECOND WAVE ARRIVES. BOTH GFS AND ETA DEVELOP SFC WAVE ALONG FRONT AND PUSH IT NORTH TOWARD WISCONSIN BORDER...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH GFS FASTER. BOTH AGREE THAT SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRI MORN...WITH S/WV RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER IL BY MIDDAY. THUS HAVE ENDED RA BY 14Z...THOUGH FRONT THEN SAGS BACK SOUTH BEHIND SFC WAVE WITH NE FLOW DVLPG KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS. RATZER && IMPORTANT NOTICE...EFFECTIVE JUNE 15...THE AWIPS IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM CHIAFDCHI TO CHIAFDLOT. THE WMO HEADER FXUS63 KLOT WILL NOT CHANGE. il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1259 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS... NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIGHT ACROSS HEART OF FCST AREA THIS NOON HOUR...WITH 17Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING FEATURE FROM IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF KRFD...TO BETWEEN KDPA AND KORD...TO JUST NORTH OF KMDW AND KGYY. IFR/LIFR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MVFR/VFR TO THE SOUTH. POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT LOCATION OF IFR CONDITIONS MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT 18-20 HOURS OR SO WITH SIG IMPACT ON TERMINALS. ON THE LARGER SCALE...RUC H7 ANALYSIS AND SAT LOOPS INDICATE ONE S/WV SHEARING THROUGH IA/WRN IL INTO UPPER RIDGE...WITH SFC PRES FALLS ALONG/NORTH OF FNT. THIS HAS ALLOWED WHAT LITTLE MOVEMENT OF FRONT THERE IS TO BE NORTHWARD...WITH FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH KMDW LAST 2 HOURS. WITH FRONT ALMOST ON TOP OF KORD BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES THIS AFTN. WITH WAVE SHEARING INTO SRN WI BY 00Z...EXPECT ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD PROGRESSION TO BE MINIMAL...THOUGH LIKELY WILL GET OVER OR THROUGH KORD. THUS HAVE PLAYED TAFS THIS WAY...WITH WINDS COMING AROUND SW FOR AFTN HOURS AND IMPROVEMENT IN CIG/VIS TO VFR/OCNL MVFR. 2ND S/WV LIFTING OUT OF SRN PLAINS PROGGED INTO AREA TONIGHT...WITH GFS/ETA BOTH DEVELOPING VERTICAL MOTION MAX AROUND 06Z. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE MINIMUM IN RA THREAT DURING EARLY EVE HOURS BEFORE THIS SECOND WAVE ARRIVES. BOTH GFS AND ETA DEVELOP SFC WAVE ALONG FRONT AND PUSH IT NORTH TOWARD WISCONSIN BORDER...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH GFS FASTER. BOTH AGREE THAT SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRI MORN...WITH S/WV RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER IL BY MIDDAY. THUS HAVE ENDED RA BY 14Z...THOUGH FRONT THEN SAGS BACK SOUTH BEHIND SFC WAVE WITH NE FLOW DVLPG KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS. RATZER && .DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS... UPPER VORT CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER RUC/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS ELONGATED VORT MAX LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS VORT MAX WILL RIDE THROUGH RIDGE AXIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GOOD AMOUNTS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT ON 305K SFC FROM ETA/GFS PROGS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE WITH MIXING RATIOS ON 305K SURFACE INCREASING UP TO NEAR 12 G/KG ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAS HAD TOUGH TIME WORKING SOUTHWARD BUT AS SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SKIRTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING SHOULD SEE AN ACCELERATION TO THE FRONTAL POSITION PROBABLY BISECTING CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON ETA PROGS FOR FRONTAL TIMING. THE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD SET UP WITH THE WARMER LOW LEVELS IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR ALSO. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING ACROSS ENTIRE AREA GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MID LEVEL FORCING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. FOR TONIGHT MODELS PROGGING CONTINUED 30 KNOT SWLY LLJ WITH SHORT WAVE SLOW TO EXIT AREA AS MID/UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW RATHER WEAK. ETA/GFS BOTH INDICATING SOME GOOD LOW/MID LEVEL WAA AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH...SO LIKELY POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. SOME CONCERN FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN DURATION OF MID LEVEL FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE BUT MOST FAVORED AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE WITH OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE DECENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM RISING BACK INTO THE 80S. NEXT UPPER WAVE THEN PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST CONUS WITH SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH SECOND SHOT OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. SATURDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS DRY BEFORE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF SWRN CANADA ON SUNDAY WITH GFS STILL DEVELOPING MCS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WORKING INTO NRN IL/NW IN ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED PERIOD FROM MON-WED LEFT PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. GFS NOW DEPICTING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE UNPHASED UPPER PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD...SO TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS APPEAR REASONABLE WHICH SEEM TO FIT GOING GRIDS. NDM && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LK MI...NONE. $$ IMPORTANT NOTICE...EFFECTIVE JUNE 15...THE AWIPS IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM CHIAFDCHI TO CHIAFDLOT. THE WMO HEADER FXUS63 KLOT WILL NOT CHANGE. il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1246 PM MDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY. OTHER CHALLENGES WILL INCLUDE POST FRONTAL WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES BENEATH ZONAL FLOW IN THE EXTENDED. SURFACE FEATURES WILL DETERMINING LOCATION OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG DRYLINE IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OUT OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DRYING EVIDENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HENCE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED FROM DENVER TO AMARILLO THIS MORNING WILL OVERSPREAD THE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY 50 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING IN THE WELL MIXED AREA WEST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER...BASICALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 27. EXPECT INITIAL ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION TO GET GOING BEFORE 2 PM MDT ALONG THE CO/KS STATE LINE AS THE DRYLINE RUNS INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR. STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...BUT RUC AND ETA FORECASTS INDICATE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION THOUGH...AS THEY MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE NEBRASKA BORDER AND TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THOSE AREAS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT IS ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN BACKED IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BY YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN NE/KS...WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE DRYLINE BULGE AND SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN 80 KNOT JET STREAK OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...AND THE RUC BREAKS OUT PRECIP NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES INITIALLY...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO A DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP WELL MIXED AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE. ONE PIECE OF GOOD NEWS IS THAT RECENT RAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING DUST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL NOT COOL OFF TOO MUCH BECAUSE OF THE WINDS...BUT A FEW UPPER 40S COULD BE SEEN IN EASTERN COLORADO. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...UNLESS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLER AIR AT THE MID LEVELS. MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOO LOW AT SURFACE...BUT EVAPORATION/EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COULD COMPENSATE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE FORECASTING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN INTO SATURDAY...AS THE TROPICAL AIR WILL TRY TO RETURN FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED BACK TO HILL CITY AND MCCOOK...THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY...AND OTHER STORMS COULD AGAIN ROLL OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT OF LESSER MAGNITUDE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK BENEATH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT AND MOVE BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON SURFACE FEATURES...BUT STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOPEFULLY HELPING THE DROUGHT SITUATION SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH NO EXTREMES IN SIGHT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BURKE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 140 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)... PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LMK FA ROTATING AROUND MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SO FAR, PCPN HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIMITED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, GENERALLY CONFINED TO ZONE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OVER IND/OH/ERN KY. STILL SEEMS LIKE THERE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP THRU THIS EVE, WITH HIGH PWS AND SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARIES ROAMING AROUND. FRZ LVLS AROUND 14 KFT SUGGEST VERY HIGH PCPN EFFICIENCY IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY NOT HAVE TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM AS SEEN IN PAST FEW DAYS, SINCE 500MB WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF LOWER MO VLY INTO OH VLY BY SUNRISE. THIS WAVE PASSES THRU FA FRI MORN, AND PER FSL-RUC HAVE GONE HIGH CHC FOR MOST OF FA. FRZ LVLS REMAIN HIGH INTO FRI, SO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS CONSISTENT IN FCSTING EXTREME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SAT. ETA HINTING AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER CEN/SRN KY, THEN DROP SWD INTO TN BY SAT EVE. ETA/GFS POINT TOWARDS A WARM FRONTAL BDY IN THE VICINITY SOMETIME ON SUNDAY ASSOC WITH SFC LOW OVER CEN PLAINS. HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING AT THE MOMENT, SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC TSRA FOR NOW. XXV .LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)... EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS ALSO IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS AS WELL...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP STRUCTURE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHC POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BASICALLY LEANED TOWARD OPERATIONAL HPC NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE. -JARVIS && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 330 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERN IS TIMING NEXT PCPN CHC FRI/FRI NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE ROCKIES TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT...A SHARP RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SASKATCHEWAN AND A TROF OVER SE CANADA. PROGRESSION OF WRN TROF WILL BE OF INTEREST FOR NEXT PCPN CHANCE HERE. SHORTWAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WAS GENERATING PCPN FROM OK TO IA/IL. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WERE LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF WITH FIRST MOVING DUE N THRU DAKOTAS AND SECOND OVER WY. CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRES OVER ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A GENERAL ERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR INTO UPPER MI THIS AFTN. SKIES ARE CLEAR...BUT THERE IS A SHARP DEMARCATION BTWN CLEAR SKIES AND CLOUDS RUNNING FROM CNTRL LWR MI ACROSS NRN WI. NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED THAT WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER FCST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH A FEED OF DRY AIR ON ERLY FLOW TONIGHT/FRI. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD THRU THE NIGHT (EXCEPT AROUND KMNM) AS ANTICYCLONIC/DRY LOW-LEVEL ERLY FLOW KEEPS CLOUDS ACROSS WI AT BAY. GUIDANCE MINS AROUND 40/LWR 40S LOOK PRETTY GOOD BASED ON AFTN SFC DWPT READINGS AND AGREE WITH GOING FCST. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR W WHERE FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. SHARP MIDLEVEL RIDGE TO THE W REACHES UPPER MI/ONTARIO FRI AFTN AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE IN A NEGATIVE TILT FASHION TO ND/MN. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SFC HIGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER JAMES BAY THRU FRI. GIVEN DEGREE OF DRY AIR VCNTY OF SFC HIGH (SFC DWPTS AROUND 30F E OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN) AND E/SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING ANY PCPN REACHING SW UPPER MI DURING THE AFTN FRI. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY ADVANCE N THOUGH. FOR MAX TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO COOLER ETA MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS IMPACTED BY COOLER E TO SE BNDRY LAYER FLOW OFF GREAT LAKES. BULK OF ENERGY WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTS NW OF HERE FRI NIGHT/SAT. HOWEVER...BAND OF WEAK QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOES PASS ACROSS FCST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE. CHC POPS SPREADING FROM W TO E LOOK FINE FOR NOW. NOT IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. ETA MUCAPE IN THE 0-3KM LAYER HAS A HARD TIME EXCEEDING 300J/KG. OF COURSE THAT IS ALL ELEVATED (MAX FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 800MB) DUE TO COOL/STABLE SERLY FLOW FRI NIGHT. SHOWALTER INDEX DOES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LATE. WILL ONLY INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION OVER SW COUNTIES LATE FRI NIGHT AND ALL AREAS ON SAT BEFORE SHRA END FROM W TO E WITH PASSAGE OF WAVE. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BREAK LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN. ETA/UKMET ARE STRONGER WITH WAVE AND WOULD PAINT A MUCH WETTER PICTURE FOR SUN THAN GFS/CANADIAN. AT THIS POINT...DON'T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR WHICH SOLUTION MAY BE BETTER WITH RESPECTIVE MODELS NOT TRENDING IN A DEFINITE DIRECTION. WILL MAINTAIN GOING CHC POPS. MON THRU THU...GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. EARLY ON...MAIN DIFFERENCE IS WITH TROF OVER THE AREA MON AS ECMWF IS 12HRS FASTER AND A BIT DEEPER. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS...BUT 12Z GFS/UKMET HAVE TRENDED DEEPER...JUST SLOWER THAN ECMWF. FOR THIS FCST...WILL FOLLOW MAJORITY SOLUTION WHICH SUGGESTS DRYING ON MON IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS SYSTEM. THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE (PER 12Z GFS/UKMET) WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE. WED-THU...00Z GFS LOOKS MUCH TOO AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BASED ON ENSEMBLES/12Z GFS. WILL FOLLOW ENSEMBLE MEAN/HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST A GENERALLY DRY WNWRLY FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA WITH TROF TO THE E AND RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A SHORTWAVE TO BRING A FEW SHRA IN WNW FLOW...BUT NOTHING IS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THAT HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 415 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... LAST OF THE PESKY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE THE DEEP TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE IS NEARING THE MO/KS BORDER. CONVECTION END WITH ITS PASSAGE AND USING RADAR TRENDS TO DETERMINE LIKELY POPS FROM CHANCE POPS. HAVE ENDED RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST CORNER. ANYTHING WHICH FORMS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z WILL BE HANDLED WITH A NOWCAST. TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES CONCENTRATED BELOW THE 0C ISOTHERM HAS RESULTED IN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. FORTUNATELY THE CORES ARE RATHER PUNY AND THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO NO WATCH NEEDED. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN NOWCASTS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND. CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI VERY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SECOND PERIOD OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE...850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 19-22C RANGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHWEST MO WHERE THERMAL AXIS LIES. MAIN QUESTION FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL FORM. HAVE PATTERNED RAIN CHANCES TO COINCIDE WITH 850MB THETAE RIDGE. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN BORDERLINE CAP AREA. 12Z ETA PROGS A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO FRIDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET STORMS TO FIRE ALONG FRONT...AND IF THEY FIRE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO ON FRIDAY IS PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS TO LAY OUT IN A MORE WEST TO EAST FASHION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL MO ON SATURDAY...BEFORE INCHING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MJ FOCUS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF MCS PREDICTED BY ETA AND GFS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. INCREASED CHANCES OF STORMS ALONG THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER AND UPGRADED GRIDS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA TO ALIGN BETTER WITH DMX AND OAX. DUE TO EXPECTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATION FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND REINITIATION LATER SUNDAY...KEPT CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO PLAINS MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A DEPARTURE FROM EARLIER FORECASTS...WHICH HAD COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECASTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE RECENT RUNS OF OPER GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD EC SOLUTION...WHICH IS KEEPING BROAD...FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. OPER GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES AGAIN TRYING TO CARVE OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...WHICH MAY YET BRING COOLER AIR INTO FORECAST AREA AND BRING THREAT OF STORMS TO AREA AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION. HELD OFF OF INTRODUCING CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME VARIANCE. SF && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 1210 PM... HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OF CONVECTION ON RADAR. LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHEWEST MO FOR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE BUT CORES OF STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE SMALL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN WORDING IN FORECAST BUT LET NOWCASTS REFLECT THIS. PER SWOMCD AND DISCUSSION VIA LAND LINE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS INOCUOUS LOOKING STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT HAVE SPAWNED A FEW TORNADOES NEAR OKC AND HOUSTON. MJ && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 409 AM... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOIST TROPICAL FLOW. EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS MOVES EAST. EXPECT TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DID LEAVE IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...AS PROGGED MCS OVER NEBRASKA INTO IOWA APPROACHES. DIVERGENT MODEL THICKNESS LINES AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER REINTRODUCED 30 POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAP MAY HOLD...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE VERY UNSTABLE AND CAP TO BE VERY SMALL. BOTH GFS AND ETA MODELS PROG THE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...FELT LOW POPS WERE WARRANTED. BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SLOWLY SO HAVE CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. NRR && .PREV DISCUSSION... 915 PM WED... EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KS BACK INTO NORTH TX. VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EVENING RAOBS INDICATING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES THROUGHOUT DEPTH OF TROPOSPHERE AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA AS VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF AREA...AND AS A RESULT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. NEXT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OK...AND HAS GENERATED CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO SPREAD BACK INTO CWA LATER ON TONIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CWA...THEN ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN SHEAR AXIS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ETA/RUC MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SEAMAN 340 PM WED... TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...WITH SHEAR AXIS DELINEATING AREA OF MOST PRONOUNCED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK OCCURRING IN PRECIPITATION AT TIME...WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING PASSAGE OF ONE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE SHEAR ZONE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL PLUME OR CHANGE IN ORIENTATION IN THE SHEAR ZONE...THUS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAPS AND FORECAST ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES...THUS KEPT THUNDER WORDING TO ISOLATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS UNTIL 18Z. A LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ATTENDANT PLUME AND SHEAR ZONE TO MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS BACKED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREA. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP IGNITE STORMS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL CAP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THUS ONLY KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER WHICH WILL LIE ALONG CAPS NORTHERN EDGE. RIGHT NOW...HAVE DEVELOPED FORECAST WITH IDEA THAT CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...WILL HAVE WATCH SITUATION CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE VARIANCE OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL RECOVER A LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. PINNING DOWN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN THE WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADD COMPLEXITY TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ETA BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS ON SATURDAY TO COVER POTENTIAL IMPULSE-INITIATED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NOCTURNAL/LLJ CONVECTION TO ENTER NORTHWEST MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE BEHAVIOR...MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...IT IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TIMING OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MOSTLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION...BUT THE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (AS AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE) AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS). SF/LS && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1210 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OF CONVECTION ON RADAR. LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHEWEST MO FOR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE BUT CORES OF STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE SMALL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN WORDING IN FORECAST BUT LET NOWCASTS REFLECT THIS. PER SWOMCD AND DISCUSSION VIA LAND LINE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS INOCUOUS LOOKING STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT HAVE SPAWNED A FEW TORNADOES NEAR OKC AND HOUSTON. MJ && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 409 AM... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVED NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOIST TROPICAL FLOW. EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS MOVES EAST. EXPECT TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DID LEAVE IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...AS PROGGED MCS OVER NEBRASKA INTO IOWA APPROACHES. DIVERGENT MODEL THICKNESS LINES AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE ANY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER REINTRODUCED 30 POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAP MAY HOLD...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE VERY UNSTABLE AND CAP TO BE VERY SMALL. BOTH GFS AND ETA MODELS PROG THE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...FELT LOW POPS WERE WARRANTED. BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SLOWLY SO HAVE CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. NRR && .PREV DISCUSSION... 915 PM WED... EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KS BACK INTO NORTH TX. VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EVENING RAOBS INDICATING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES THROUGHOUT DEPTH OF TROPOSPHERE AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA AS VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF AREA...AND AS A RESULT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. NEXT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OK...AND HAS GENERATED CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO SPREAD BACK INTO CWA LATER ON TONIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CWA...THEN ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN SHEAR AXIS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ETA/RUC MODELS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SEAMAN 340 PM WED... TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...WITH SHEAR AXIS DELINEATING AREA OF MOST PRONOUNCED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK OCCURRING IN PRECIPITATION AT TIME...WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING PASSAGE OF ONE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE SHEAR ZONE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROPICAL PLUME OR CHANGE IN ORIENTATION IN THE SHEAR ZONE...THUS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAPS AND FORECAST ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES...THUS KEPT THUNDER WORDING TO ISOLATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS UNTIL 18Z. A LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ATTENDANT PLUME AND SHEAR ZONE TO MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS BACKED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREA. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP IGNITE STORMS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL CAP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THUS ONLY KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER WHICH WILL LIE ALONG CAPS NORTHERN EDGE. RIGHT NOW...HAVE DEVELOPED FORECAST WITH IDEA THAT CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...WILL HAVE WATCH SITUATION CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE VARIANCE OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL RECOVER A LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK. PINNING DOWN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN THE WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADD COMPLEXITY TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ETA BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS ON SATURDAY TO COVER POTENTIAL IMPULSE-INITIATED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NOCTURNAL/LLJ CONVECTION TO ENTER NORTHWEST MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE BEHAVIOR...MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...IT IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TIMING OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MOSTLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION...BUT THE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (AS AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE) AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS). SF/LS && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 320 PM MDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION....AMENDING DISCUSSION TO INCLUDE ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH ISSUED TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ONE THAT NOW INCLUDES TRIPP COUNTY. NEW TORNADO WATCH ALSO EXPIRES AT 800 PM CDT. OTHER CHANGE IS THE EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO 700 AM CDT. CURRENTLY STORMS ARE FORMING OVER MANY PARTS OF CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SENDING OUT DISCUSSION EARLY WITH SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IMMINENT. A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF CWA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WY...NEAR GCC...WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL WY AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEB AND INTO WESTERN IA. SURF TROF/DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN WY. LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT NOW. MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST SURF FLOW BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD EAST OF THE HILLS...MOVING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN WY WITH CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFT AND EVE. KEYS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE EXTENT OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING THAT TAKES PLACE...AND ITS RESULT ON POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. LAPS DATA SHOWING INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN. TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO SEVERITY OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. RUC AND ETA PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING WARM FRONT NEAR SD/NEB BORDER THRU THE AFT AND EARLY EVE AS DRYLINE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE HILLS EARLY THIS AFT...ADJACENT PLAINS EAST OF THE HILLS MID TO LATE AFT AND FINALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFT AS WAVE OVER WY CATCHES UP WITH BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FAITH TO RAP TO PINE RIDGE WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUBSTANTIAL AND INSTABILITY GREATEST. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FROM IEN TO SFD AND INTO NORTHERN NEB IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND LCL'S WILL BE LOWEST. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODD...MELLETTE...AND TRIPP CO THRU THE EVENING. IF THIS STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS INTO AN MCS ACROSS THAT AREA THIS EVENING...FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT AND ND LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND OUT OF REGION BY SATURDAY. REST OF FORECAST FOR WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILD. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD ON SUN. WITH ZONAL FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION. && UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM MDT (900 PM CDT) FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. .WY...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR CROOK AND WESTON COUNTY. $$ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 100 PM MDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION...SENDING OUT DISCUSSION EARLY WITH SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IMMINENT. A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF CWA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WY...NEAR GCC...WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL WY AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEB AND INTO WESTERN IA. SURF TROF/DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN WY. LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT NOW. MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST SURF FLOW BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD EAST OF THE HILLS...MOVING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN WY WITH CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFT AND EVE. KEYS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE EXTENT OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING THAT TAKES PLACE...AND ITS RESULT ON POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. LAPS DATA SHOWING INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN. TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO SEVERITY OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. RUC AND ETA PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING WARM FRONT NEAR SD/NEB BORDER THRU THE AFT AND EARLY EVE AS DRYLINE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE HILLS EARLY THIS AFT...ADJACENT PLAINS EAST OF THE HILLS MID TO LATE AFT AND FINALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFT AS WAVE OVER WY CATCHES UP WITH BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FAITH TO RAP TO PINE RIDGE WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUBSTANTIAL AND INSTABILITY GREATEST. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FROM IEN TO SFD AND INTO NORTHERN NEB IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND LCL'S WILL BE LOWEST. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODD...MELLETTE...AND TRIPP CO THRU THE EVENING. IF THIS STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS INTO AN MCS ACROSS THAT AREA THIS EVENING...FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MT AND ND LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND OUT OF REGION BY SATURDAY. REST OF FORECAST FOR WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILD. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD ON SUN. WITH ZONAL FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION. && UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM MDT (900 PM CDT) FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...EXCEPT TRIPP CO. ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. .WY...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR CROOK AND WESTON COUNTY. $$ ST sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1128 AM MDT THU JUN 10 2004 .DISCUSSION...A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WY...NEAR SHR...WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL WY AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEB AND INTO WESTERN IA. SURF TROF/DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN WY. MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST SURF FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD...THOUGH SOME CLEARING IS STARTING TO TAKE PLACE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF CWA RIGHT NOW AS SHRTWV BRINGING THE RAIN LAST NIGHT EXITS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR SHOWING CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR STORMS THIS AFT AND EVE. KEYS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN AND WARMING TAKES PLACE...AND ITS RESULT ON POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALSO TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO SEVERITY OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. RUC AND ETA PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING WARM FRONT NEAR SD/NEB BORDER THRU THE AFT WITH DRYLINE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE HILLS EARLY THIS AFT...ADJACENT PLAINS EAST OF THE HILLS MID TO LATE AFT AND FINALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD DURING THE EVE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFT AS WAVE OVER WY CATCHES UP WITH BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FAITH TO RAP TO PINE RIDGE WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUBSTANTIAL AND INSTABILITY GREATEST. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADO POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FROM IEN TO SFD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND LCL'S WILL BE LOWEST. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODD...MELLETTE...AND TRIPP CO THRU THE EVENING. IF THIS STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS INTO AN MCS ACROSS THAT AREA THIS EVENING...FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO GO WITH SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFT...EXCEPT ISOLATED ACROSS NE WY. ALSO TWEEKED WINDS AND TEMPS. ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. && UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. .WY...NONE. $$ ST sd