FXUS04 KWBC 120640 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 240 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUL 12/1200 UTC THRU JUL 13/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...THE ERN U.S... THE 0000 UTC MODELS AGREE THAT SHRTWV ENERGY ASOCTD WITH THE MID LVL TROF WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION WILL DIG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK MID LVL SYSTEM ADVANCING ACROSS THE OH VLY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF THAT TAKES ON A STG NEG TILT WITH TIME THAT WILL IMPART STG DYNAMIC FORCING TO THE LIFTING PROCESS INVOF THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH AN AREA OF STG LVL MSTR CNVGNC THAT IS FCST TO PIVOT INVOF THE NRN MID ATLC REGION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD HVY TO EXCESSIVE RNFL EVENT. ALL AVAILABLE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AND FOR THE MOMENT SEE LITTLE REASON TO DIFFER FM GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD. MEANWHILE...HI PWS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SE ATLC COASTAL STATES INCDLG FL TO SUPPORT LCLY HVY CNVCTV RAINS. SEVERAL MECHANISMS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT/TRIGGER ACTVTY ALONG THIS ELONGATED AXIS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASOCTD WITH EITHER THE APCHG AFOREMENTIONED OH VLY SYSTEM OR THE UPPER LO NOW ADVANCING EWD SOUTH OF CUBA WILL AID THE LIFTING PROCESS WHILE MSTR FOCUSES ALONG LAND/SEA BNDRYS AND/OR A SFC TROF AXIS THAT WILL DVLP IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS AS A SFC LO EVOLVES OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. THE ETA AND GFS 24HR QPFS ARE SIMILAR HERE... BUT THE TIMING OF THE RNFL IS DIFFICULT GIVEN MODEL 6HR FCSTS THAT ARE VERY DIFFERENT. ...UPPER OH/TN VLY AREA... VERY DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE QPF HERE AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...OUTFLOW BNDRYS...AND BROAD BUT WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LIFTING PROCESS. OPTED TO BASICALLY BLEND THE GFS AND ETA QPF SOLUTIONS HERE. ...N CNTRL U.S... AN UPPER TROF MOVG ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL TRIGGER CNVCTN ALONG THE ASOCTD CDFNT PUSHING ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS BY THIS EVNG. IN ADDITION...IT WILL ALSO HELP TO FIRE AND OVRRNG RNFL EVENT ALONG AN OLD NW/SE ORIENTED FRONT LYING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. INTERESTINGLY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUPPORT THE OVRRNG SCENARIO BUT ONLY DEPICT LGT AMTS GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO INHIBIT CNVCTV DVLPMNT. OPTED TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN BOTH OF THE MODELS GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR PRESENT BUT STILL PLAYED THE EVENT CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW. ...NAME AREA/SWRN U.S... XPCT RATHER LGT PCPN THIS PD ACROSS THE NAME AREA AS DRY AIR ASSOCD WITH THE APRCHG TUTT LOW BRINGS DEEPER DRY AIR ACRS THE REGION. EXPECT AFTN AND EVNG CNVCTN TO REDVLP FM CO TO AZ ASOCTD WITH AN AREA OF HIER MSTR TRAPPED UNDER THE CNTRL ROCKIES UPPER HI CELL. KORTY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 13/12Z 0.01 224073 231074 235077 245086 255095 264102 273109 284116 308133 318139 322140 325138 327134 328129 329121 334119 337121 339125 342130 349134 353134 357132 360126 359117 354110 352104 356103 363105 366101 369094 372090 375089 380093 382095 387096 390089 392079 395072 398068 400068 405067 408065 414061 418053 418046 416040 412034 406027 400023 395021 391021 389024 380036 378039 375041 372043 368044 364045 359047 354051 348054 345053 340052 338049 332048 327050 322056 321059 323061 330064 316083 308081 304077 302074 299072 294068 281062 269057 261051 250039 242030 237026 230024 0.01 514242 513237 512233 511232 509230 507229 505230 503231 502233 503235 505239 508242 510245 514242 514242 0.01 520953 520946 519941 516925 514920 510914 503908 497903 489899 482898 469900 449907 446907 440905 434901 427897 420892 406881 404885 403890 401901 400913 398918 399925 400931 402937 406947 408950 409959 411972 414982 415988 418995 419999 419004 417011 417018 421021 424022 429032 433034 437031 442023 452008 457001 465993 472990 483988 503986 510983 513979 514973 515964 518959 520953 0.01 476732 475724 473719 471716 468713 464710 459710 456709 455704 455700 452693 448694 445697 442701 435710 430716 425718 419715 414712 411710 406710 396713 377709 368708 363708 357711 351717 348720 344724 340730 336737 333747 330752 328758 327768 323778 317787 309795 303797 298798 261797 251798 247798 244800 241803 241809 242815 245821 248825 254831 257833 258837 258842 261848 267855 269859 269863 269868 269875 271881 275886 280887 290885 298881 306874 316867 325863 326864 325871 324878 324883 323889 326897 330900 336899 340897 343893 347884 353879 357881 360887 363895 365900 368907 371912 374916 377923 379927 381930 385929 388920 389916 390908 390894 389879 390874 392867 393861 395855 398849 402844 408844 413846 428853 435865 441879 446893 449898 453898 455896 457888 458884 458874 456866 455858 456853 457846 456838 453830 451821 449811 447802 442786 441776 443772 457762 462758 469752 473742 476732 0.01 504272 504267 504266 503262 502258 501256 500253 498251 498250 495249 494249 491253 491257 493260 494263 495266 497269 498269 500272 503272 504272 0.01 301956 301951 299947 296946 290948 286953 281957 275961 265965 256966 249968 246975 244983 246992 251997 253000 256001 266002 272004 275005 280003 282001 285000 285990 289983 293977 296970 299963 301956 0.25 224063 234068 242073 258086 268089 280093 287098 296105 303111 307114 315117 318117 319114 322108 325103 324100 321099 315098 311096 302091 294082 287075 269065 260060 251054 245048 236040 234037 228035 0.25 501953 501947 499942 499936 494930 488929 484928 479928 474929 468934 464941 462950 464954 466957 474960 480961 486962 490962 495961 497959 500956 501953 0.25 444736 443731 441729 434730 428732 423732 420731 414727 408724 394723 383721 376720 369722 360727 354734 347740 343746 338758 336765 335773 331788 327796 324801 314809 307814 299818 290820 282819 272815 262809 256809 253814 256822 261827 267831 272832 283837 294843 300843 308841 323830 334823 339819 345821 347825 348831 347842 347849 350855 361862 366866 369866 373865 378860 379852 379842 381835 385829 390824 398819 404818 411818 418820 430826 433825 434822 434813 433802 430792 427780 428775 430771 438757 442750 444745 444736 0.25 452964 443951 443946 446937 441931 435927 424919 414910 411912 410917 410926 416942 420963 422974 426981 433996 436995 441990 445983 447974 452964 0.25 376072 375068 372065 369063 368061 367060 364061 361062 358064 357065 356068 356072 358073 361073 363072 364071 367069 369069 372070 374072 375072 376072 0.25 341099 342096 341092 341091 340089 338085 335084 333085 333086 332088 332090 333092 333095 335099 338101 341102 341099 0.50 433747 429741 422739 416737 410732 403729 397728 382725 376725 370727 365729 362732 356739 352745 348752 347758 350764 345779 339794 334807 333814 336814 343809 352805 360803 363807 365812 368818 371821 374821 389810 397808 404807 419809 422805 422801 420790 421780 423771 433747 0.50 436959 435956 433948 430945 428941 429937 428933 426930 423926 419925 417928 418932 420939 423942 424950 425958 427963 430966 434964 436959 0.50 226060 237065 246071 256078 261081 269084 282087 285084 276075 272071 266068 261065 256062 250059 245054 237047 232043 227040 1.00 418752 415746 409741 404736 399734 385731 379731 373733 366738 363744 362747 362752 366762 370767 376772 380778 386780 391784 394787 398788 403789 406790 411790 413781 414772 415764 418757 418752 1.00 267075 266074 264074 263075 264075 266076 267075 1.00 226054 229055 231054 232054 233051 231050 230048 229048 226046 1.50 412752 410749 405743 399739 390737 383736 377736 375738 374742 375746 374753 377760 385767 391774 398779 401780 404779 407776 409766 412756 412752 2.00 408754 406749 403745 398741 391739 385739 381743 380746 380754 382757 385759 390764 394770 399773 403770 404767 406759 408754 3.00 401758 401754 400751 398749 397748 394747 392747 390746 390748 389752 389753 390753 392755 394758 395759 397761 399761 401759 401758 $$