Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS62 KMHX 161354 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 954 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...WEDGE PATTERN CONTINUES IT`S STRANGLEHOLD ON THE CAROLINAS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. PHASING JET STREAMS WILL AID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT SKIRTS THE COAST. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...DUE TO STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5" WHICH IS 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. RAINFALL UPSTREAM IN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION 15-18Z. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO RISE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SO CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ANTICIPATE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SO COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS COVER LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT...COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE...BUT DON`T REALLY EXPECT TO SEE MUCH UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND SINK SOUTH OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE REBOUND WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOW 50S FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND CONTINUING TO WARM UP WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS SW FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT BULK OF RAINFALL HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT SO WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. THE 12Z GFS IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE OLD 00Z ECMWF IN FORECASTING A ANA FRONT WITH THE RAIN OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD A MORNING POP FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --LIFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS AM. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFT AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS AREA REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF COASTAL FRONT. DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND FOG WILL KEEP VIS AOB 3SM AND CIGS MAINLY BELOW 1000 FT. WIND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER AREA INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH AREA THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH AREA FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --N WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A FRONT LINGERING OOFF THE SC/NC COAST. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES OFF CHS WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROF SWINGING BY FROM THE W. THE RESULT WILL BE STRENGTHENING N WINDS LATE TNT/TUE. THE LOW WILL BE SLIDING E...SO DON`T ANTICIPATE A SIG LONG PERIOD OF SCA WINDS...HOWEVER SEAS COULD LINGER ABV 6 FT FOR OVER 24 HRS. WINDS S OF LOOKOUT LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE MARGINAL...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE DOWN THE COAST MID WEEK...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED THU NT WITH LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREAS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ130- 135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...SJ MARINE...SJ
