SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST TUE SEP 21 1999
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
TWO OR THREE DAYS WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP TO FEED MOISTURE
FROM THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL FALL
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MOST
OF THE REGION BY THEN.
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE FROM HILARY CONTINUING TO FLOW INTO CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.
DENSE CLOUD SHIELD SERVING TO CUT OFF HEATING NEEDED FOR CONVECTION
TODAY OVER EVERYWHERE BUT JOSHUA TREE NP WHERE SOME DECENT STORMS
FIRED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS...ESPECIALLY NGM/ETA...BRINGING A DECENT
VORT TROF INTO FAR WRN AZ AND SE CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT...WHEREAS
LATEST RUC GIVING NVA. THUS...NO REALLY DISCERNIBLE DYNAMICAL SOURCE
IN THE OFFING TO ACT ON THE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WED. SO...MOST LIKELY RUN-OF-THE-MILL SHOWERS ON TAP
FOR MUCH OF CWFA NEXT 24 HOURS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FAR W PORTION...ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...JUST IN CASE ETA/NGM ARE CORRECT WITH PVA TONIGHT.
BY WED NIGHT...WILL CALL FOR DECREASING SHOWERS WITH A MORE DIURNAL
FLAVOR TO ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL
PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE AVAILABLE TO ACT ON LEFT-OVER MOISTURE BY
THEN...SO THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD BE GREATEST ON DAY 2. ALSO...WILL
HEAT THINGS UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO ADDED INSOLATION. SHOULD ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE FOR CHANCE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY.
BECOMING LESS AND LESS CONVINCED ABOUT DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. NEW AVN FURTHER E WITH TROF OVER ERN PAC AND
RIDGE OVER SW US. THIS WOULD GIVE STATE A WEAKER FLOW PATTERN AND
LEAVE SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL THEREFORE RE-INTRODUCE THREAT OF
STORMS HIGHER TERRAIN E OF PHX FOR SATURDAY AND THEN GO DRY BY
SUNDAY. ESTLE
FXUS65 KFGZ 212131 az
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST TUE SEP 21 1999
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM
HILARY WILL SPREAD INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY..
.DISCUSSION...
NO NEW MODEL DATA YET THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR 15Z RUC...DUE TO NCEP
COMPUTER WOES. RUC APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY INITIALIZED...AND SEEMS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE VERIFYING WELL THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE TRENDS. DEEPEST MOISTURE HEADED NEXT FEW HOURS INTO FAR SW
AZ/SE CA ZONES...AND KYUX RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING UP INTO THIS
AREA...NOTHING HEAVY. BLOWOUT FROM STORMS S OF THE BORDER DID KICK UP
SOME PRETTY DECENT SE WINDS EARLIER AT IPL/EL CENTRO. ANYWAY...NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING REAL HEAVY TODAY WRN CWFA...ALTHOUGH RUC DOES
MOVE A WEAK 500MB VORT MAX INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. YUM
12Z SOUNDING DID HAVE AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPE...SO A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT BELIEVE THAT THICK CLOUD
COVER WILL GREATLY REDUCE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...RUC THEN MOVES SOME RATHER DEEP
MOISTURE NEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN CWFA...SO STILL LOOKING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOST AREAS BY THEN. MAY BE HITTING SOME POPS A BIT HARD TODAY
CNTRL AND E...BUT WILL NOT UPDATE JUST TO CUT NUMBERS 10 PCNT. FOR
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE TO STILL BE AROUND SO THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS ON TARGET. DONT SEE ANY
REASON TO UPDATE ANY FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. ESTLE
FXUS65 KTWC 211615 az
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
855 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 1999
NEW MODEL DATA NOT AVAILABLE TO ANY LARGE EXTENT BUT OBVIOUS
FORECAST CONCERN IS THAT OF MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE
HILARY AND ITS ADVECTION OVER CWFA WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD AND CURRENT TIMING OF FORECASTS FOR THAT MOISTURE TO
SPREAD OVER CWFA BY TONIGHT LOOKS OKAY. THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR AREA.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT WILL MODIFY MAX
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ON DAY 2..WED..
FOR CA ZONES 20/21 S.J.VALLEY AND CA ZONE 25 KERN DESERTS. WHILE NOT
CHANGING SKY DESCRIPTIONS AT THIS TIME..SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS WOULD
SUPPRESS WIDE-SCALE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BUT LIGHT SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT INSTEAD ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RUC MODEL INDICATES SGNFCNT
MOISTURE ARRIVING C.CALIF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INITIALLY.
REITERATE PREVIOUS CONCERN OF MONITORING SITUATION FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL .. ESPECIALLY IN KERN DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS WITH SUCH A
PATTERN. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS .. SO AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF STRONG CONVECTION IS THE KEY FOR
WEDNESDAY.
PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR EXTENDED...CONT PRECIP THREAT THURS AS
MOISTUR LINGERS...BUT FRIDAY...DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS AS RIDGE NOSES
IN OVER NRN CA AND PUSHES MOISTURE EAST. FRI AND SAT COULD GET QUITE
WARM WITH MRF INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER 5910 METERS.
FAT 013 BFL -23 YNP 236
.HNX...NONE.
FAT UE 091/067 087/068 092 82013
BFL UE 090/068 085/068 091 82-23
YNP BW 085/060 077/062 079 82236
GUDGEL
FXUS66 KMTR 211602 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
CONVECTION OVER GA/AL HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. IR2
AND FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE SHOW LOW CLOUDS MOVING S OVER AL TOWARD FL
BIG BEND. THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BENEATH DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE/Q-DIVERGENCE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC PROGS. DRY
ADVECTION INTO NW CWA ALSO NOTED PER METARS. HAVE THEREFORE YANKED
POPS ALL AREAS AND GONE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND LOWERED MINIMA FOR NRN
ZONES. BASED ON CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RUC PROGS...WILL LOWER WINDS
OVER GULF SLIGHTLY AND REMOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WORK ZONES ALREADY OUT. WORK CWF OUT BEFORE 0130Z. INPUT/FEEDBACK
ALWAYS WELCOME.
TJT
FXUS62 KMLB 220103 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
AT 7 PM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWED
THAT THE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA
WAS CONTINUING TO DECREASE BUT THE RUC SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG AREA
OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A 500 MB TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AROUND 2
OR 3 O'CLOCK WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THERE STILL APPEAR TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SO WILL UPDATE THE ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POPS TO 40
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...30 ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND KEEP 20 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BLS
FXUS72 KMFL 220013 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
755 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
AFTER CHECKING OVER RECENT AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND COORDINATING
WITH NHC...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE UPPER
KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS. MLRF1 IS DOWN TO 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED...AND
FWYF1 IS DOWN TO 17 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF KEYS WATERS...NOT
NECESSARILY FOR THE WIND...BUT DEFINITELY THE SEAS. WILL ALSO CHANGE
WIND DIRECTION TO MORE NORTHWEST AS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS WHICH
SHOW WINDS VEERING...AND EVENING SOUNDING...VAD WIND PROFILE AND 21Z
RUC SUPPORT THIS THINKING AS WELL.
ONE LAST RAINBAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AT THIS TIME
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS UPSTREAM. WILL LOWER POPS IN THE
FORECAST...CHANGE SKY COVER TO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND RAISE
MINIMUM TEMPS WITH LESS THREAT OF RAIN.
HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH
TIDES RUNNING AROUND 1 TO 1.24 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW THAT
WINDS ARE SHIFTING AND DECREASING THE THREAT WILL ALSO DIMINISH.
WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON THIS IN AN UPDATED SPS.
.EYW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.
MOHLIN
FXUS62 KTBW 212353 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999
WHILE HARVEY MOVES EAST ACROSS FLORIDA...OUR FOCUS TURNS TO AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE OCTOBER THAN
SEPTEMBER. AT 3 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVERLAYED WITH RUC
ANALYZED WINDS...VORTICITY AND PROFILER PLOTS SHOW LEAD VORT MAX
MOVING INTO CAROLINAS...SECONDARY VORT MAX OVER S ARKANSAS...A LARGE
100 KT PLUS 250 MB JET FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO S ARKANSAS AND
NW MISSISSIPPI...AND THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS
WELL NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MULITLAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN AS
FAR NORTH AS NW ARKANSAS AND SE MISSOURI WITH SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION/LIGHTNING NOTED OVER S ARKANSAS.
THE NGM/ETA SOLUTIONS SEEM BEST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THIS
FORECAST WITH THE AVN APPEARING TOO WEAK WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND WIND IN LATER PERIODS. BRIDGING OF VERY COOL AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRES SHOULD CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO JUMP SE TO THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...500 MB PVA...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY POST-
FRONTAL. RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO SW
MISSISSIPPI...BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AND
COOL AIR WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AND USHER IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTH. THIS COOL DRY AIR PASSING OVER THE
WARM LAKE AND COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS TO PICK UP TO AT
LEAST 20 KT AND GUSTY OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTY
OVER THE SE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
OVER LAND...VERY REFRESHING CLEAR COOL NIGHTS AND MILD SUNNY DAYS
WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS MODERATING
BACK TO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT...THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MORE
THAN 5 DEGREES TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE.
LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE A 10 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE. COOL NUMBERS FOLLOW...
MCB 82/55/76/48 2000 BTR 84/57/77/52 2000
MSY 86/62/78/60 2100 BIX 86/60/79/55 2000
.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AQQ TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
22
la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
855 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
MAIN SW STILL TO W. CAN SEE MORE RAIN DEVELOPING TO S OF ERN PART FA
AND THIS IS ADVECTING N. THIS SEEMS TO BE ALONG A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AREA WHICH PULLS THROUGH THE ERN PART FA. TIMING MAIN
TROF TO W PUSHES IT THRU ERN PART ARND 09Z AND THERE IS A LINE OF
SHWERS TO THE W WITH THAT TROF. SO BELIEVE IT WL BE ALMOST MRNG TO
PRECIP ENDS IN THE E. OVER THE W WHERE ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHWERS
LINGER WL END PRECIP ARND MIDN.
ON TEMPS CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AS CAA IS PUSHING TEMPS WELL DOWN
TO THE LOW 50S AND BELIEVE SOME 40S NW LOOK GOOD.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLDS WL HAVE ON WED BUT FOR NOW WL NOT MAKE NAY
ADJUSTMENTS.
HOISTED SCA ON BAY AS COLD AIR PUSH DOWN THE BAY WL KEEP WINDS UP TO
SCA CRITERIA INTO WED. RUC SHOWS 20 TO 25 KTS THRU THE NGT AND 18Z
ETA CONTINUES FAIRLY STRG WINDS INTO WED.
.LWX...SCA BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC.
JAB
FXUS61 KLWX 211846 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
...WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS WITH FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY ALL GRR
CWA...
LATEST LOOK AT RUC AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS ETA TO QUICK IN
BRINGING 750 TO 600 MB RH INTO AREA. MOST OF LYRD MID CLDS STAYING
N OF STRAIGHT AND RUC INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
OVERNIGHT. THESE CLDS ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT WAVE THAT
HAS MOST OF DYNAMICS IN CANADA. THUS SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL LET LAND BREEZE
SET UP... WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC DWPTS TO STAY NEAR 32F... AND ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONLY LOCATIONS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN... LIKE WITHIN A MILE OR TWO SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN MID 30S BY
MORNING. MANY LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 30... LIKE GRANT
AND LANSING ASOS... AND BIG RAPIDS.
.GRR...FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY ALL GRR CWA...INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.
WDM
FXUS63 KAPX 220212 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1010 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
LATEST IR STLT LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A MID DECK PUSHING OVER
EASTERN UPPER. AREA OF CLOUDS IN EAST UPPER IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM A LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY. RUC SHOWING 700/500 MB MOISTURE TO REMAIN BETWEEN 60
AND 70 PERCENT OVER THE STRAITS AND EAST UPPER OVERNIGHT. THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP DIMINISH THE THREAT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S FOR EAST UPPER.
FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. SURFACE DEW PTS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S WITH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE STRAITS.
WILL ADD SOME MENTION OF FROST TO EAST UPPER WITH LOWS FORECASTED
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S IN SPOTS.
.APX...FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ016>036-041-042.
SWR
FXUS63 KMQT 220154 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
950 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE CONCERNS...
UPR MI REMAINS IN FAST NW UPR FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE OVER W NOAM AND
DIGGING LONGWV TROF OVR E NOAM. 00Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM LO PRES IN HUDSON'S BAY SW INTO SW ONTARIO AND
EXTREME S MANTIOBA. ASOS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH DEWPTS 45-50F. HOWEVER...CANADIAN
SFC OBS/IR IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY FEW MID/HI CLOUDS IN VCNTY OF
FRONT...PROBABLY ASSOC WITH DIFF PVA PER 21Z RUC ANALYSIS OF 500 MB
SHORTWV OVR LK WINNIPEG. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO CONTINUE SE INTO W LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WITH 850-700MB CONV FIELD OVERSPREADING CWA
TONIGHT...WITH COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN W LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z AS WELL.
AS IT STANDS PARTLY CLOUDY LKS GOOD FOR ALL ZONES WITH ADDITIONAL HI
CLOUDS ARRIVING. MIN TEMPS LK ON TRACK TOO...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS ADVECTING INTO W CWA FROM NW WI...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
FALLING INTO THE 30'S OVR FROST PRONE WI BORDER COUNTIES. E COUNTIES
COOLEST WITH MIN TEMPS NR LOW END OF GOING RANGE.
WILL NOT UPDATE GOING PACKAGE.
COORD WITH APX
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KMQT 220154 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TDY IS INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND TEMPS
13Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS SAT SHOW 1004MB SFC LOW OVR NERN
MANITOBA MVG EAST AND DRAGGING A SFC WM FRNT FM NRN ONTARIO SWRD
INTO MN ARROWHEAD REGION. AHEAD OF FRNT IN SERN ONTARIO TEMPS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WHILE
BEHIND BOUNDARY IN SRN MANITOBA AND NRN MN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH DWPTS IN THE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
WM FRNT IS PRODUCING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT FM NERN
ONTARIO BACK INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE FRNT...PRIMARILY IN
MANITOBA...LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS (BKN090 AT CYQK AND BKN040 AT CYRL)
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT...ALTHOUGH A SHRA WAS REPORTED NW OF LK
WINNEPEG BUT IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW.
700MB-500MB RH FIELDS ON BOTH THE MESOETA AND RUC PICK UP ON THE
BAND OF CLOUDS WELL AND BOTH BRING MOISTURE STRIPE THROUGH AREA BY
21Z...CURRENT FCST HAS PARTLY SUNNY OR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTN
AND THAT LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM. TEMPS ARE LOOKING TO BE COOLER THAN
BOTH FLP AND FWC NUMS AS THEY ARE FCST TO TOP OUT FROM 50 TO
55...AND LOOKING AT CURRENT SFC OBS AND 850MB TEMPS FM FCST
SOUNDINGS PER RUC AT 21Z THAT LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.
.MQT...NONE.
JLA
FXUS63 KGRR 211439 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999
NOT MUCH TO LOOK AT TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO THE SOUTH HAS
ALLOWED LOW LEVEL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE AN THIS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BY 21Z RUC. LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS AND TAKING
AROUND A 20 DEGREE DROP SUGGESTS LOWS CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST. 24
HOUR CHANGE TRACE ON 00Z KMPX SOUNDING AND THIS MORNINGS LOW
SUGGESTS A LOW IN LOW TO MID 40S FOR MSP AREA. WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NW
FLOW COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO WI AND THIS COVERED AS WELL. MAY
HOWEVER..BUMP ON MAXES IN WEST ON WED BASED ON TODAYS HIGHS IN
DAKOTAS.
.MSP...NONE.
RICHARDSON
FXUS63 KDLH 220029 mn
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 1999
SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL
ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY...AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL UPSWING IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE BREAKING
THROUGH THE REMNANT WESTERLIES LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT
AS JETLET FINALLY PULLS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS SHOULD
FINALLY ALLOW HEIGHTS TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEEPEN THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEW RUC MORE OR LESS AGREES
WITH THE PREVIOUS ETA MODEL IN THIS REGARD...AS WELL AS SHOWING THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DESERTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RUC CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
PROGS SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY AS
MID SHIFT SURMISED...AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY.
AN INTERESTING PLAYER BY LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE OLD
OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA PERMA-LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY WOBBLING A BIT MORE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WAS PROGGED BY LAST NIGHTS ETA TO BRING A 250MB
JET BACK ONTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS LIFT WOULD FAVOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER BY LATER TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA WEDNESDAY. PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE YET UNTIL WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. WE DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS MORNING AS ABOVE SCENARIO FITS IN WITH GOING
FORECAST...BUT THEN WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MODEL RUNS DUE TO THE
COMMS PROBLEMS AT NCEP. FOR THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL FOCUS MORE ON
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND POSSIBLE STORM MOTION WITH
CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER EVENT WILL WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PROBLEM OF COURSE WILL BE IF CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING FOR WEDNESDAY...THUS DIMINISHING
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOPEFULY IF WE GET A FULL SUITE OF MODEL OUTPUT
WE WILL BE ABLE TO ANSWER SOME OF THESE LINGERING QUESTIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MCQUEEN
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 211553 nv
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
BAND OF MSTR CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN ON ITS WAY FROM CNTRL PA. THIS BAND HAS BEEN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN ANY
HURRY TO MOVE OFF TO THE E. IN FACT RUC AND ETA MDLS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO MAIN MSTR BAND OVERNIGHT AS SRN PORTION
OF UPPER LVL TROUGH KICKS RAPIDLY EWRD AND NRN END PIVOTS TO THE W.
THERE ARE ALSO A FEW FORCING MECHANISMS TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING
OVERNIGHT. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH A COUPLED JET STREAK IN
PLACE THROUGH 12Z AND BOTH 850 AND 700 MB QG FRONTOGENESIS SHOWS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LOW LAYERS. ALSO A SLIGHT NELY SFC FLOW
HELPING TO KEEP MSTR LOCKED IN OVER CNTRL NY AND PROVIDING FOR A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHILE DRY AIR WORKS EVER SO SLOWLY INTO
XTRM WRN NY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FROM
BROOME COUNTY E AND S WITH A NARROW AREA OF SCT POPS JUST E OF THE
I-81 CORRIDOR. WILL CONT WITH DRY FCST ACRS WRN ZNS. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH...CURRENT MINS
LOOK GOOD.
.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES
FXUS61 KBUF 211917 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
DISC: MODELS RUNNING VERY LATE AND NOT MUCH HELP WITH THE NEW
PACKAGE..LATEST SFC PLOT HAS A VRY WK LO ARND CAPE COD AND THE WK
FNT XNTDS S INTO CNTRL VA AND THEN DIES OUT. 88D DATA SHOWS THE PCPN
CONTS TO MOVE UP AND OVR THE FA WITH AMOUNTS RUNNING BTWN .30 AND
ARND .50 OVR THE WRN ZNS. WL CONT WITH THE FFA THRU TNGT.
LATEST RUC SHOW THE H5 TROF SLOWLY PUSHING E AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
A LITTLE S/W DVLPNG AT THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS MAY ALOS RIDE UP
ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROD AND GIVE US SOME ADDITIONAL PCPN. WL CONT
WITH THE CURRENT FCST AND KP THE PCPN IN THRU THE MRNG HRS...THEN AS
FNT MOVS FURTHER E OF CSTL AREAS THE PCPN SHD COME TO AN END. WITH
THE UPR TROF STL IN THE OH VLY WE WL BE SLOW TO CLR AND WL KP P/CLDY
WED NGT AND INTO THU.
MARINE...SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT AND WL LV UP THE SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS.
.NYC/OKX...FFA FOR THIS AFTN AND TNGT FOR NERN NJ ZNS...
NJZ002>006-011.
SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS FOR CSTL WTRS...ANZ355-353-350.
GSK
FXUS61 KALY 211722 ny
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK S/W DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN
PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE GENERATING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SFC TROF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W PASSING THROUGH THE NRN RRV ATTM WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SW. LATEST RUC ALONG WITH LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG BEHIND THE SFC TROF...HOWEVER LATEST KMVX VWP
SHOWS 20 KTS IN THE LOWEST GATES. WILL LEAVE WINDS ALONE ATTM BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LAMP NUMBERS COMPARING FAVORABLY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND
ARE IN SUPPORT OF ONGOING FORECAST. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST AS ALL PARAMETERS ON TRACK.
.FGF...NONE.
RJT
FXUS63 KBIS 210831 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
950 EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
REALLY NO MAJOR CHGS XPCTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AMS UNSTBL UNDER
750 MB OR SO. INVN COMMING DOWN TDA BUT LOW LVL INSTBY AND MSTR RMN.
ALSO STG VORT SHOWN ON 09Z RUC ROTATING THROUGH FA. AXIS OF VORT
NE/SW THRU AREA THIS AFTN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKUP OF CLDS
NW BUT FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH MC AND NOT WORRY ABOUT TREND SINCE IT
MAY TAKE A LACK OF "HEATING" WITH CONVECTIVE TEMP SO LOW...BEFORE
CLDS BGN TO DSIPT. AS FOR TEMPS...CRNT READINGS NOT TOO FAR FROM
FCST HIGHS BUT AGAIN CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON BUFKIT ARE IN THE 50S AS
WELL SO WL PROB NOT GO FAR FROM HERE...AS FCST. CRNT RA WEST OF MFD
APRS TO BE REGENERATING SOMEWHAT SO WILL PAIR OFF NEW GROUP AND
RAISE POPS...OTRW MIX OF VC/MC WITH 20S AND 30S FOR POPS.
.CLE...NONE.
TK
FXUS61 KILN 210914 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1138 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
ATMOSPHERE NOT COOPERATING THIS EVENING. AREA OF DPVA THAT I SAW
EARLIER IS LEADING TO INCREASING RETURNS ON THE 88D AN A FEW SPITS
OF RAIN. AS THE FORCING WL ONLY GET STRONGER NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
BASED ON DEEP 1000-500 MB SATURATED LAYER ON THE 00Z RUC...INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN MTNS AND NRN NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES. A FEW
CONVECTIVE RETURNS CONTINUE OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WHERE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DEEP SATURATED LAYER ARE HELPING THE SHRA. FOR THESE
ZONES HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
(AFTER MY LAST UPDATE WL MOST DEFINITELY NOT TRY TO TIME IT).
STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT WINDS KICKING UP IN THE UPSTATE...
BUT THEY HAVE NOT YET SO WL LEAVE THE WINDS BE.
.GSP...NONE
MCAVOY
FXUS62 KGSP 220124 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
922 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
ADAP HAS SURFACE LIS OF ZERO TO -2 ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALSO ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST.
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE STATE HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING. RUC
LINGERS SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDLANDS THROUGH 06Z. SURFACE FRONT JUST
ENTERING THE UPSTATE WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER 50S.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COOLED DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CNTRL SC.
WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. PLAN TO LOWER POPS ACROSS
MY WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY.
.CAE...NONE.
LM
FXUS62 KCHS 220055 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
855 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
WV IMGRY CLEARLY SHOWS S/WV ADVANCING EWD THRU NRN GA/SC. MAIN AREA
OF PCPN HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA HV POPPED UP FM CAE TO JUST N OF SAV WHERE HIER THETA-
E EXISTS ALG W/SUM WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. LTST RUC2/MAPS INDICATE A
CHC OF PCPN THRU 4-8Z...BUT AFTER THAT PVA MOVES E AND SUBSIDENCE
BEGINS TO SET IN. PLAN TO CONTINUE 20 TO 30 POPS OVER FA TIL AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS ALL NIGHT. WL LEAVE MENTION OF TSRA IN FOR NOW AS
ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO WEAKEN. WL MAKE FINAL DECISION JUST B4 ISSUANCE
BASED ON LTST RADAR. TEMP/WIND FCST LOOKS FINE WITH NO MORE THAN A
MINOR TWEAK. ALSO...BASED ON 18Z RUC2/MAPS...WL REMOVE PCPN FM WED
FCST. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND S/WV MOVES AWAY...FEEL CHC OF PCPN
IS MUCH LESS THAN 20 PCT. WL JUST GO BECMG P/CLOUDY.
CWF...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WINDS OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN LOW EXITING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING
FRONT OVER LAND. HOWEVER EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LEVELS LOOKING OK BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.
.CHS...
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
TJR/
FXUS62 KCHS 211916 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
SURFACE FRONT JUST ENTERING NC MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
GOOD SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT...ALONG
EAST SLOPES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN TN
BEHIND FRONT AND AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE.
15Z RUC SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF GOOD Q CONVERGENCE AREA IN 700 TO
300 MB LAYER. THE Q CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
110 KT JET THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF CWA...PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE ALSO HANGING
AROUND AREA INTO EVENING...THEN MID AND UPPER LAYERS DRY OUT AS SHORT
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL MORNING..SO I WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WE MAY
SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS. DAYTIME HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL...BUT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AVL...50/66/42/71 4/0/0/0
CLT...55/72/46/75 4/0/0/0
GSP...54/72/46/75 4/0/0/0
.GSP...NONE.
RBN
FXUS62 KCHS 211416 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1015 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
MID LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST INTO AREA OF
HIGHER THETAE AND MORE INSTABILITY. BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IN
THE VICINITY OF AGS MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA. SOME HOLES IN CLOUD COVER
ALREADY EVIDENT. LOW PRES ALREADY TRYING TO DEVELOP OFF THE GA/SC
COAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS AFTN PULLING FRONTAL BNDRY
AND DRIER AIR OFF THE COAST. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC...
HOWEVER BEST POTENTIAL TODAY FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE
COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCE (ONCE THE AGS PRECIP MOVES THRU)
OVER NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL LOWER POPS TO THE 20 TO 30 RANGE.
BELIEVE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS VERY LIMITED BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR SC
COASTAL PORTION ONLY WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY EXISTS. CLOUD
COVER MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AND COULD BE A GOOD TIME TO USE VARIABLE
CLOUDS FOR SC PORTION WITH SOME HOLES EXPECTED. TEMP FCST LOOKS
REASONABLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO...BUT BELOW...SCA CRITERIA.
MESOETA SHOWING WINDS ACTUALLY WEAKENING TODAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW
DVLPS OVER NE FL WATERS AND MOVES UP THE COAST JUST OFFSHORE ALONG
THE FRONT ONCE IT MOVES OFFSHORE...RUC IS SIMILAR.
.CHS...
SC...NONE
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20 TO 50NM.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20-50NM.
SLF/SLB
FXUS62 KGSP 211357 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
SHORT WAVE AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CWA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AIR. 12Z RUC NA
BUT MESO ETA INDICATING ENOUGH Q CONVERGENCE...OMEGA UPLIFT AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPES TO
1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES REACHING MINUS 5. LAPSE RATES IN 850
TO 500 MB LAYER OVER 6 DEG OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTN
SO WILL ADD THUNDER THERE.
TEMPS LOOK OK FOR MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN SO WILL LEAVE AS IS.
.GSP...NONE.
RBN
FXUS62 KCAE 211342 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999
THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT SHOWS THE WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OUT OF THE S TO SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
...TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF TO NEAR THE DWPTS BY SUNRISE. HAVE UPDATED
ZONES TO MAKE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS AND WINDS.
.ABR...NONE
MOHR
FXUS63 KUNR 212018 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999
CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH CWFA OVERNIGHT. 50H SHORTWAVE FM SOUTHERN IL
TO NW AR WL MOVE SE ACROSS CWA DURING THE MORNING. 06Z RUC SEEMS TO
BE DOING A BETTER JOB AS IT MOVES A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE MEM CWFA AND INTO N CNTRL MS BY 18Z. ETA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE NGM..SPLIT SHORTWAVE WITH ONE SECTION DIVING TO NRN LA AND THE
OTHER MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. CURRENT SAT AND RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT RUC SOLUTION. SHWRS MOST NUMEROUS ACRS KY/TN BORDER AND WL GO
WITH A 40 POP THERE THIS MORNING. SCT/WIDELY SCT SHWRS EXTEND WEST
WELL INTO AR. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THESE SHWRS WL HOLD TOGETHER SO WL
GO WITH 20 POP ATTM.
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND SHORTWAVE AXIS. SC/CU WL DEVELOP BEHIND TROF
AXIS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA. CU RULE INDICATES NORTHERN MS WL
STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY. ELSW EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTN. FWC
TEMPS SEEM FINE. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTY.
FOR TONIGHT..HI PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION. SFC WIND
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SO WL NOT STRAY FROM FWC TEMPS. FOR
WED..SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE AND LESS WIND.
EXPECT WED NIGHT TO BE THE COOLEST IN THE SERIES AS WINDS WL GO CALM
AND SKIES WL BE CLEAR. WL TRIM 3 TO 7 DEGREES OF GUIDANCE.
.MEM...NONE.
SJM
tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
924 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH TRACE AMOUNTS WERE NOTED AT THE AIRPORT
BEFORE 00Z. LATEST RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
MOVING TO THE SE OVER SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY...WITH THE BULK OF IT
NOTED...FROM WESTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...OVER NORTHERN BREWSTER
COUNTY...TO THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF TX. LOW/MID CLOUDS NORTH OF
IT HAVE OVERSPREAD THE BIG BEND. IN SPITE OF THE RADAR NOT SHOWING
ANY ECHOES THERE (OVERSHOOTING?) DO THINK LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING
THERE. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT RAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS...MOVING TO THE SE IN THE GENERAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z RUC HAS
IT OVER THE BIG COUNTRY BY WED MORNING. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
ANIMATION HAS SCT/BKN CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE LEA COUNTY AND OUR
NORTHERN TX COUNTIES. WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS HEADING EAST...WILL KEEP
WORDING OF MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED
SINCE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION...GDP WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT. NOT MANY CHANGES TO
BE NOTED IN UPDATED ZONES. WILL MAKE THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOUDY RATHER
THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MINOR WIND TWEAKING. TEMPS LOOK O.K.
BOYD
FXUS64 KBRO 220211 tx
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999
THE 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ALONG A BPT/GLS/PSX/HDO
LINE...WITH CAA AND NORTH WIND 15-25KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00Z-12Z
FWD/SHV SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG CAA BELOW 850 MB. THE MAIN UPDATE
ISSUES ARE TIMING THE FRONT AND CAA/VERTICAL MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH AFFECT ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS.
THE 09Z RUC FRONTAL TIMING BASED ON THICKNESS LOOKS FINE...PLACING IT
THROUGH THE SRN END OF THE CWA BY 21Z. THE RUC EVEN SQUEEZED OUT
PRECIP MATCHING THE LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE NRN
CWA.
SO THE UPDATE WILL FOLLOW THE RUC AND REMOVE POPS FOR ALL ZONES.
ALSO PLAN TO INCREASE WINDS A CATEGORY AND HIGHLIGHT CAUTION ON AREA
LAKES. SIMILARLY...WILL INCREASE THE MARINE WINDS ONE CATEGORY
TODAY...BUT THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE TONIGHT/WED AS CAA HITS THE
WARM WATER. TEMPS ARE VERY TRICKY DUE TO THE WARM START...STRONG
CAA...AND VARIABLE CLOUDS. CHECK OF FWC/LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES
CURRENT FORECAST ON THE HIGH SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN CWA. WILL
LOWER TEMPS 1/2 TO ONE CATEGORY.
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER AFTER CONSULTING WITH
THE USDA FOREST SERVICE. MAIN REASON IS VERY DRY VEGETATION/SOILS...
RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
.HGX...SCA FOR BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS 0-50 NM FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER.
31/47
PRELIMS...
CLL BU 082/051 082/049 085 000
IAH BU 083/054 083/050 085 000
GLS BU 083/068 083/065 083 000
FXUS64 KBRO 211422 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
522 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
...HEAVY SURF ADVY ACK-PTWN...
STMT OUT ARD 540 AM.
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR THE MID SHIFT
UNLESS ZONES ARE UPDATED PRIOR TO 8 AM EDT. ZONES/CWF COORD AND
MERGED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND INCORPORATED 00Z/22 MRF/SEF IN
THE EFP PORTION OF THE FCST.
MARINE: SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE...GALE FORCE GUSTS
TO 37 KTS OCCURRED AT CASHES LEDGE AT 06Z JUST AHD OF 1001
MB LOW AT 41/69 AT 06Z (SHIP REPORT ANALYSIS).
PUBLIC: HEAVY SURF ADVY FOR ACK/CC...ESP E PORTION OF CAPE CQX-PTWN.
STRONG SWELLS FM GIRT STILL TRANSLATE NWWD TWD NEW ENGLAND.
AT 08Z 15 FTRS AT ACK SHOALS...8 FTRS PWM LIGHT WITH CASHES
15-16 FT AND STILL RISING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. MAY NEED
TO EXPAND ADVY IN THE 11 AM PKG. DANGER OF RIPS PLUS/MINUS 3
HRS OF LOW TIDE. SURF EXPECTED TO INCREASE E COASTAL MA VCNTY
BOS/NEWBURYPORT LATER THIS AM.
RAINFALL: RAISED NGM POPS 20-30 PCT TO CATEGORICAL TDY IN RESPONSE TO
EXTENSIVE AREA OF RW-/RW UPSTREAM ASSTD WITH SHARP 7H/5H
TROF. SML CHC OF ISOLATED TSTM NR VT MAX LATE TDY OR THIS
EVE IN OUR CWA....MNLY SE COASTAL REGION BUT NOT IN THE
FCST YET...IF AT ALL. SWI DOWN TO ABT 1. TT NR 46...
MARGINAL AT WORST. NO GUARENTEE ON MEASURABLE RAIN TDY BUT
RUC/ETA/NGM/GEM SIGNAL DEEP RH THIS AFTN AND WK UVM..SHUD B
ENOUGH TO GET MEASURABLE IN DECENT LOW LVL CNV. MAY HAVE
DECENT SHWRS CONT CC...ESP AFTER 00Z/23. AT 09Z VWP WINDS
ABV 6K HAVE A LOT OF SLY COMPONENT FM NJ TO NYS.
THIS FCST PROBABLY STARTED CLEARING TOO SOON ON CC...MAY NEED TO
DELAY IT TIL AT LEAST DAYBREAK THU PER LATE CK 03Z ETA CLOUD COVER
FCST.
NICE WX SLATED FOR THU AND LOOKS LIKE GOOD TIMING FOR SEASONAL
PATTERN CHANGE TO AUTUMN WITH WARM TKNS (WARM 500 MB HTS) AND FQT
PROBABLY DRY FROPAS...LOOKING FOR GENERALLY NICE WX TO CONT INTO AT
LEAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. DOWNPLAYED SHWR FCST A BIT FRI TO MERGE
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND DELAYED IT ELSEWHERE UNTIL EARLY SAT IN
ASSN WITH EC/MRF STG VORT PASSAGE. DIDNT GO FOR 80 ANYWHERE IN SNE
THIS WKND YET DUE TO LEFTOVR LOW LVL COOL POOL...BUT 80 NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION SUN AFTN CT RVR VLY.
WARM TKNS AND DRY AIR PROBABLY TRANSLATES TO ENLARGED DIURNALS SUN-
TUE AND STILL CUD B COOL 40S SUN AM IN MANY SUBURBS. SEABREEZES
LIKELY SUN AFTN. MID OR UPPER 80S WARMTH MORE LIKELY SOMETIME NEXT
WK AND MRF SAYS SFC TDS MAY YET AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 70S LATER NEXT
WK. IF MID-UPPER 80S OCCUR...WUD B NEAR RECORD VALUES...BUT
THATS WAY OFF AND MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MITIGATE THAT WARMTH.
.BOX...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ALL WTRS EXCEPT BOS HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.
HEAVY SURF ADVY TODAY ACK AND CAPE COD.
DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 220626 ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
CURRENT RADAR LOOP STILL SHOWG PLENTY OF PCPN AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF
THE CWA ATTM. THIS MOIST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE RGN TDY AS STG UPPER
TROF PIVOTS THRU. ETA/NGM/AVN ALL SEEM TO MISS THE BOAT WITH ONGOING
PCPN...SO RELIED MORE ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST RUC OUTPUT. WILL
CARRY A CHC OF SHWRS (40%) THIS MRNG ALG THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM SYR SWD
THRU BGM AND AVP. FURTHER E ACRS THE POCONOS/CATSK...WILL GO WITH LKLY
POPS. I/LL INDICATE A GRDL IMPROVING TREND BY/DURG THE AFTN AS DEEPER
MOIST PULLS OUT AND NVA SETS IN FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...HRLY PROFILES
SHOW LOTS OF LL MOIST LINGERING THIS AFTN AND 5H COLD POOL WILL BE MOVG
ACRS THE AREA...SO ANY CLRG TREND THAT DVLPS SHUD EASILY PRODUCE LOTS
OF SC. THEREFORE...ONLY WORDED THE FCST AS "BRKS OF SUN" TO SHOW THAT
CLDS MAY YET HAVE THE UPPER HAND EVEN DURG THE AFTN.
TNT...WILL GO A LTL MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH P/CLDY IN THE FCST GIVEN
LACK OF CLDS OBSERVED ATTM WELL UPSTREAM ACRS THE OH VLY/GRT LKS RGNS
NEAR SFC RIDGE AXIS. STILL DID MENTION SOME CLDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL SC ERLY THIS EVE AND THEN PSBL ST/FOG FORMATION LATE.
THU...SFC HI MOVES QUICKLY TWDS THE SE COAST...WITH A SW LL FLOW SETTING
UP OVER NY/PA. 85H FLOW INCRS TO ABT 30 KT BY 18Z...AND THIS SHUD HELP
TO ADVECT A MILDER AMS INTO THE FA. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THIS OCCURRENCE AND ALSO TO SHADE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME PATCHY CU/AC MAY FORM DURG THE AFTN IN ASSOCN WITH A WK VORT
LOBE...MAINLY N. FOR NOW...WENT WITH P/SNY ACRS THE NRN ZNS AND M/SNY
FROM NY/S SRN TIER INTO NE PA.
USED A BLEND OF FWC/FAN TEMPS.
WRK ZNS SENT. FINAL RELEASE COMING BETWEEN 3 AND 330.
.BGM...NONE.
JUREWICZ
FXUS61 KALY 220452 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
924 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH TRACE AMOUNTS WERE NOTED AT THE AIRPORT
BEFORE 00Z. LATEST RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF THIS LIGHT RAIN
MOVING TO THE SE OVER SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY...WITH THE BULK OF IT
NOTED...FROM WESTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...OVER NORTHERN BREWSTER
COUNTY...TO THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF TX. LOW/MID CLOUDS NORTH OF
IT HAVE OVERSPREAD THE BIG BEND. IN SPITE OF THE RADAR NOT SHOWING
ANY ECHOES THERE (OVERSHOOTING?) DO THINK LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING
THERE. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT RAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS...MOVING TO THE SE IN THE GENERAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z RUC HAS
IT OVER THE BIG COUNTRY BY WED MORNING. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
ANIMATION HAS SCT/BKN CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE LEA COUNTY AND OUR
NORTHERN TX COUNTIES. WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS HEADING EAST...WILL KEEP
WORDING OF MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED
SINCE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION...GDP WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT. NOT MANY CHANGES TO
BE NOTED IN UPDATED ZONES. WILL MAKE THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOUDY RATHER
THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MINOR WIND TWEAKING. TEMPS LOOK O.K.
BOYD
FXUS64 KBRO 220211 tx
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
925 AM PDT WED SEP 22 1999
UPPER LOW SPINNING OFFSHORE NEAR 32N/126W WITH A GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA. 12Z DRA/OAK RAOBS SHOWING PW VALUES
BETWEEN 3/4 AND 1 INCH WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE LIFTED
INDICIES. SURFACE DEW POINTS UP ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 12 DEGREES THE
PAST 24 HRS.
BEST CONVECTION FIRING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ACROSS THE CWFA. LATEST RUC SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING NORTH ACROSS CWFA TODAY. DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THIS FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF
THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BEST OMEGA JUST EAST OF THE CWFA TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY MAX OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY TRAINING ECHOES OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE TODAYS MAX TEMPS. CURRENT TEMPS WAY OUT
FRONT OF YESTERDAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SJV WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH HOLDING TEMPS DOWN. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS THE
NORTH PORTION OF THE CWFA THE REST OF THE MORNING SLOWING THE
WARMUP. WILL LET CURRENT ZONES RIDE FOR NOW.
.HNX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
LINDQUIST
FXUS66 KSTO 221617 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1125 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND TEMPS.
WV LOOP HINTED AT UPR LVL SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH NRN MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS SHRTWV WAS SUPPORTING LITTLE MORE THAN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IR/VIS LOOPS SHOWED BANDS OF AC/CI FROM
MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO ACRS WRN LK SUPERIOR STREAMING ACRS UPR MI.
CLOUDS WITH WEAK 500-300 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 315-320 ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PER 12Z RUC FCST TO SLIDE ACRS AREA BTWN 15Z-21Z. LYR BLO 500
MB REMAINS DRY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AREA DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENCE
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET LEADING TO THINNING CLOUDS.
NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD FILTER THROUGH SO THAT GOING
PTSUNNY FCST WL WORK.
12Z GRB SNDG AND AREA FCST SNDGS WITH 850 TEMPS INTO 8-10C RANGE
SUPPORT GOING MAX TEMP FCST FROM 65-70F. DOWNSLOPE WNW WINDS WL
BRING READINGS TO WARMER END OF RANGE AT MARQUETTE AND IMT.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 221442 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
.DISC...ERLIER MDLS DIDN/T HANDLE CURRENT WRAPUP WELL AT ALL. ERLIER
RUC DID THE BEST...HOWEVER IT WAS OFF BY ABT 9 HRS...TOO SLO. CLD
SHIELD AND PCPN WRPG UP BUT N+E PROGRESS SLOWING UP ATTM. FEEL THE
ONLY PART OF THE FA THAT WILL DRY OUT DURNG THE DAY WILL BE THE SRN
MOST ZONES. OVR THE NRN AREAS...PCPN/CLD SHIELD SHLD RMN IN PLACE
THRU MOST OF THE DAY AND SLOLY SHIFT E AS THE UPR LOW CREEPS EWRD.
THIS TREND CONFIRMED BY NEWER RUC (12Z) WHICH HAS A BETTER (NOT
PERFECT) HANDLE ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS.
UPSHOT OF ABV...WILL CHG FCST OF ZONES FROM MOHAWK VLY NWRD OVR NY TO
BASICALLY PDS OF RAIN. FOR SRN VT WILL ALSO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLDS AND PCPN FOR THE AFTN. ALL THIS WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DOWNWRD
TWEAK TO THE TEMP FCST. THE ONLY AREA TO BE SPARED THE WORST WILL BE
THE SRN ZONES.
WRKZFP OUT ARND 1035 AM.
.ALB...NONE.
CERNIGLIA
FXUS61 KBUF 221401 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
919 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. 09Z RUC SWINGS A VORT AXIS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROF AND INDICATES SOME LIFT ACROSS EASTERN SC BUT AT THE SAME
TIME OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE DECREASING. EARLY VIS SATL
IS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS. SFC LOW OVER THE WATERS ALONG THE FNT WILL CONT
TO PULL NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. ATTM BELIEVE THE COMBO OF THE
TROF...VORT AND SFC LOW WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY
ADDITIONA RAIN BUT WILL SLOW THE CLEARING TREND. WILL REWORD SKY TO
BECMG P/SUNNY. NO ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED TO TEMPS.
CWF: WILL BRING WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE SC WATERS AS MYR
REPORTED GUST TO 21 IN THE LAST HOUR. GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX
DURING THE AFTN BUT WITH CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP. WILL DROP MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE AFTN.
.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SURF CITY NC.
IRELAND
FXUS62 KMHX 221227 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1019 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE COAST OF SC AND NC WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR
WORKING INTO THE CWA. LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER HOWEVER
CLOUDS ARE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH CU FIELD DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. WILL
STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS AFTN. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SC AND GA LATER TODAY BUT SHOULD ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE
CU DEVELOPMENT WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. CHILLY TEMPS AND DEWPTS WELL
BELOW YDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH SIG SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTN WILL
HOLD TOUGH WITH TEMP FCST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT GOOD MIXING TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO SFC THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH UP
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WORDING WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A CASE FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT LEAST FOR
MOULTRIE AND THE LAKE CLOSER TO THE COAST. HAVE GOTTEN GUSTS TO 25
KT AT CHS AND COULD BE HIGHER AT THE LAKES.
CWF...NO SIG CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST. WILL ADD MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE
CHS HARBOR TO 30 KTS TODAY SINCE IT HAS BEEN OCCURRING THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND RUC AND MESOETA FCST OF TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD TO CONT THRU
AFTERNOON APPEARS ACCURATE AND INLINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS ATTM.
.CHS...
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 50 NM.
SLF/SLB
FXUS62 KGSP 221351 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
OBS AND SAT PICS SHOW CIGS LIFTING ALONG WRN EDGE OF CWA. STILL SOME
BKN SC FM WRN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO ASHE COUTY NC. REST OF FA DRY AND
VERY STABLE. KRNK AND KIAD 12Z SOUDINGS WERE VERY DRY ABV THE BNRY
LYR. ONLY SCT CAA CU EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MAY SLIGHTLY ADJUST TEMPS
FOR THIS AFTN AFT A FINAL LOOK AT 14Z OBS. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 13
TO 23 KTS AND 12Z RUC HAD 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVR FA THRU 00Z SO NO
OTHER FCST CHANGES NEEDED FOR NOW.
.RNK
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
NC...NONE.
AMS
FXUS61 KAKQ 221307 AMD va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY MID-AFTERNOON. VSBL
SATPIX ALREADY SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES...SO WILL GO FOR A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TREND IN
THOSE AREAS. BASED ON 12Z MHX SOUNDING...SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION
BLO 900 MB...FEEL CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATEST RUC-II RUN SHOWS DRIER AIR REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS AROUND
18Z...THE SOUTH COAST BY 21Z AND THE OUTER BANKS BY 00Z THU. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT.
COASTAL...SOLID GALES BLOWING OVER THE NRN WATERS AND THE SOUNDS.
SOME FLOODING OF HIGHWAY 12 WAS REPORTED NEAR CEDAR ISLAND AND
OCRACOKE AS THE STRONG NORTH WINDS BLOW WATER OVER THE ROAD.
A LTL MORE MARGINAL BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE CRITERIA
DOWN SOUTH...BUT WILL KEEP GOING FOR ONE MORE CYCLE AS SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
.MHX...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS.
COLLINS
FXUS62 KILM 221319 nc