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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150949
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
549 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 15/1200 UTC THRU MAR 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
UPDATED...
INVOF THE LWR MS VLY/TN VLY...THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND CMC SUPPORTED
PREVIOUS THINKING OF PCPN BEING DISPLACED FARTHER TO THE NORTH
THAN NCEP MODELS ARE FCSTG. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR FINAL DAY1 QPF GIVEN RECENT HISTORY IN THAT REGARD.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE FM THE PRELIM TO THE
FINAL DAY1 QPF PRIMARILY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
...NWRN U.S...
COMBINATION OF A SHRTWV SWINGING INLAND BY MID PD AND INTENSE WLY
LOW TO MID LVL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING VERY HVY PCPN TOTALS TO
THE PAC NW THIS PD. MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DETAILS..MODELING THE HEAVIEST PCPN TOTALS TO THE ASOCTD FRONTAL
BAND AS IT SINKS SWD TO A PSN NEAR SWRN OR/NERN CA BY SUNDAY EVNG.
IN ADDITION..SGFNT POST FRONTAL SHWR ACTVTY IS EXPECTED AS
ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TAPPING A CONTG
ONSHORE MSTR FETCH. MDT PCPN AMTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MTNS OF ID/NWRN MT/NWRN WY FAVORED BY STRONG WLY OROGRAPHICS.
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL QPF AGREEMENT..STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
GUIDANCE FOR THE FCST.
..WRN GULF REGION/SOUTHEAST U.S...
ONE SHRTWV NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE SERN U.S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE TO THE WRN GULF REGION BY THIS EVNG.
THE NAM AND GFS QPFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HANDLING THE PCPN
WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV EARLY IN THE PD OVR THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH
THEY APPEAR THEY WILL BE SHY ON AMTS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OF MORE CONCERN IS THEIR
HANDLING OF PCPN WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV THIS EVNG AND TNGT. AS
WAS THE CASE YDA..THE GFSS OWN RH FCST AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE
NCEP MODELS WILL AGAIN BE UNDERDONE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD WHERE FVBL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE UNDER A
REGION OF FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS. IN ADDITION..THE
GEM REGIONAL QPF INDCS HEAVIER PCPN TOTALS FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AND FOR NOW OPTED FOR A MORE NRN DISPLACEMENT THAN THE NCEP MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING. FINALLY..GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING PCPN
AMTS AND COVERAGE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND FOR THAT REASON UPPED AMTS SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATL STATES...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD EXISTS ON THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SEMI-SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATL
REGION ON MON BEFORE SLIDING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUES. THE
ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION W/ NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER
MODELS... WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FACTORS ON MON IS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN A RATHER RICH MOISTURE
LADED REGION AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL/CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM AND
21Z SREF MEAN... SINCE THIS SOLUTION HAD A BIT MORE SUPPORT FROM
THE CANADIAN AND UKMET. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID STRIPE OF A
.50 INCH TO 1 PLUS INCH QPF AMOUNTS FROM SRN MS/AL INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND NEWRD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN GA INTO ERN SC/NC ON MON
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON TUES.
...PAC NW AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE CONSTANT AND PERSISTENT PAC ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NW AND
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AFTER SUN... AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE UPPER VORTEX DIGGING FROM AK
SEWRD INTO THE NERN PAC... THUS LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NERN PAC
AND ALLOWING THE ONSHORE FETCH AND UPPER JET TO WEAKEN. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THIS FCST SCENARIO RELATIVELY WELL AND HPC
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND 21Z SREF MEAN
FOR QPF AMOUNTS BOTH DAYS. ON MON... EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
INUNDATE WA/OR INTO NRN CA AND ENOUGH PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
IMPACT AREAS DOWNSTREAM WITH OROGRAPHIC PRECIP. THEN TUES THE AXIS
WILL FOCUS ON WA AND THE NRN PART OF OR INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
...NRN PLAINS TO GRT LAKES...
MARITIME UPPER DYNAMICS EJECTING OUT INTO THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL STREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. GENERALLY AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING/LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP FROM ND/SD EASTWARD INTO THE GRT LAKES. IN FACT... LL
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SCARCE DUE TO THE MASSIVE SURFACE RIDGE
SPRAWLING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
KORTY/MUSHER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 16/12Z
0.01 534210 536204 535195 531187 530182 529175 528169 526167
514152 508144 501138 498136 495131 493128 490126 483121
478120 476119 476111 476105 474101 471097 471092 469090
464093 462097 457097 452092 443089 438089 433089 425086
423090 424095 427100 421107 420111 417112 414112 412114
413120 418126 422132 426133 428135 427145 427155 421153
418153 416157 415164 414170 413176 415181 418185 420185
423190 425193 428192 431191 433193 438206 434205 433203
426197 421195 417195 411197 403201 399200 394197 389195
384194 381193 379196 378201 378206 380209 384215 380218
377218 374214 370215 367219 369229 373235 384246 391251
397255 409259 419262 429264 445263 459261 467261 473262
478264 483267 485270 490277 497283 500286 504287 512285
516278 517270 518266 518261 517248 514238 515223 518217
520215 524214 529214 531213 534210
0.01 477687 473676 469669 464670 462675 461682 460692 460698
463704 466708 468714 472721 475724 477722 477712 478702
477692 477687
0.01 449126 449125 446125 443124 440122 437122 434121 432124
431126 431128 429131 431132 432132 434131 437132 440129
443126 446127 449127 449126
0.01 389741 388735 386729 383723 381722 373718 370718 365720
362721 359721 355721 353723 344732 342741 338756 332771
329780 327789 325797 321805 305830 301836 297844 293861
290869 289877 284891 282900 279910 272921 264934 259947
257957 255966 255975 259980 264984 270988 284983 284989
284994 283000 284006 287007 292007 296005 298002 305988
307981 309972 309961 310955 313951 326943 332939 338932
346920 348914 349908 348902 349898 352891 355882 355878
357874 359873 362876 365876 369875 373872 376868 377864
377858 378848 383831 386822 390815 395808 399800 403791
400785 397785 393784 392779 391768 389741
0.25 523192 522186 519180 510169 507164 502159 499156 498151
496144 489134 483130 478128 471127 469133 465135 461133
457131 454132 453135 453140 452143 449145 445145 439141
438141 435143 434147 433153 434158 437164 441167 444173
447179 446183 452193 455189 459186 462184 464181 465173
475172 480177 485181 489182 493181 497180 504181 508185
519196 521196 523192
0.25 511255 510244 509237 507233 500214 494206 489204 484203
475205 468208 463208 461207 457209 449213 440212 436211
431209 425204 422205 422209 421216 418219 417215 412212
407211 401206 393202 389202 386204 388209 392215 398222
394226 385225 382228 381231 385239 391245 399250 406253
415255 424257 432256 439255 448253 455252 464252 472253
481258 488265 494272 496274 501277 503276 505273 505265
507259 511255
0.25 490234 488230 487228 486227 483226 480225 477225 476225
477226 480230 482233 485235 488235 490234
0.25 451113 449109 447106 446105 445101 444100 441099 438099
436100 435101 433104 432105 430108 430112 432115 435115
438114 440115 443117 446118 448117 449116 451113
0.25 376756 374748 370741 365739 360740 353744 348749 345755
343763 339785 336797 332811 329815 326820 321823 316828
314833 311840 308849 304860 302872 299886 296897 292907
288918 283930 278941 275951 274956 274964 276968 279969
282969 288967 294964 298960 300956 306946 309940 313934
321926 328918 332909 335902 338895 340889 341883 342877
342871 344857 347851 351847 360837 367827 371817 376803
378796 378790 377771 376756
0.50 501270 502267 502263 500256 495247 492242 488239 484239
476231 471231 468229 468227 471223 475222 480222 485223
489225 492230 496241 498245 501247 504249 506248 507243
504234 502229 500223 499218 495213 491210 485208 480208
473210 464211 460211 455212 446215 435214 426211 425214
422220 421226 416226 415224 416220 414216 408214 400209
397206 392205 391209 395214 401220 403224 400226 397227
391228 388231 387233 390239 397246 402249 408251 419253
431253 439251 447249 456247 462246 467247 479252 485256
490262 497270 501270
0.50 488170 487165 484160 476152 468145 466143 459143 453148
448148 442146 439145 437148 436152 438157 443162 449171
451174 453172 455167 458161 461159 466161 469165 481169
483171 486172 488170
0.50 482134 480133 478133 477133 477135 480134 482134
0.50 445109 444107 441104 438104 435108 438111 441111 443113
445109
0.50 369764 368756 365749 361748 355752 352756 349763 348775
348785 345796 341808 335817 327824 321832 315843 314850
313854 312865 309875 302897 294916 290925 287936 284945
282950 282956 284959 287961 292958 298950 308933 322917
330898 334888 335881 337876 338864 340852 342847 346842
354835 357830 360825 364816 368803 371791 372784 371778
369764
1.00 496227 496222 496221 493221 492221 493221 495226 495227
496227
1.00 479239 478238 476237 474237 475239 478240 479239
1.00 466222 463216 455216 448217 437218 430218 427220 425223
425226 424231 419230 414228 412223 411220 407223 406229
402231 399231 396232 394238 395241 399244 403247 414248
422249 426249 431248 445242 452239 451237 446237 445233
446231 449229 453226 456226 460227 463225 466222
1.00 453159 452158 451155 450154 447152 444152 441153 443158
444158 446160 449162 452161 453159
1.00 362791 361787 360788 359790 358793 357795 357797 356800
355801 354805 358807 360804 360803 361799 362798 362795
362791 362791
1.00 341833 340830 337830 332832 330835 328838 326842 323847
322851 321855 320862 323865 325863 329859 331854 334850
335846 336842 339837 341833
1.00 327880 325877 321883 314887 310892 307898 306906 305913
307917 311915 315910 318906 319898 322892 325886 327880
1.00 304926 305923 303922 302924 301925 299927 298928 299929
302929 304926 304926
1.50 461220 460219 457219 456219 457221 460220 461220
1.50 452222 442219 436221 430223 429232 424234 420233 416232
411229 408232 402234 397235 396237 397239 400242 404244
409245 423248 428246 431245 433241 432236 434233 438230
448225 452222
2.00 439226 439224 436224 434225 435227 438227 439226
2.00 428244 429240 428237 422235 417233 411232 407235 404237
398238 403242 409242 415244 420245 423246 428244
3.00 422242 421240 421237 419236 416235 414235 413237 411238
413239 415240 418241 421242 422242
24HR QP VT 17/12Z
0.01 524261 523255 521248 519241 515233 505213 501207 501203
504200 507200 510203 513208 519213 526215 530219 533220
536216 538208 538202 537196 537189 534183 529174 521163
512152 504144 495136 488129 477122 474120 473115 475111
476106 475101 473091 473085 474078 476069 485045 488031
489021 490013 492999 492989 491982 488975 487963 488956
490948 493934 491927 488921 484918 480918 474920 472921
470926 467938 464950 462965 461979 460988 460997 459004
457011 455018 453024 450039 448045 447052 445058 443062
439066 437068 437073 442076 446080 447084 446086 442086
430085 424086 422088 423092 426098 426100 417106 413108
408109 405112 403117 405121 411123 417126 419130 417142
414154 411173 411179 412184 412188 411191 408195 403197
397197 388192 381189 378189 376191 374194 374197 376202
382211 385214 384217 381218 378218 374215 370216 368219
372230 377240 381245 387249 395254 401257 407258 421262
426263 430263 439260 450257 454256 460256 466258 472262
479265 482269 490278 497284 506292 509294 511294 513290
0.01 481199 483197 483194 480191 473186 469185 465187 460190
454197 451203 449206 450209 456209 460202 461204 465205
468205 471203 478200 481199
0.01 422784 422778 421772 419767 415764 402766 397764 392758
388751 383744 378739 371735 361734 354734 348735 341741
335748 326758 322763 319769 314781 309794 306801 302807
296817 291829 285841 279853 276865 272877 270893 269899
268907 266918 265926 265932 266942 267947 269952 272958
279959 283956 287950 302930 306923 310918 317908 324898
333885 340875 349865 358855 365851 375847 383846 389847
399854 403851 404848 405840 403833 401828 402823 404820
412812 416808 418804 421793 422784
0.25 516272 518266 518257 515249 508230 504222 499215 493209
489207 483206 475207 468210 461211 454214 445215 439214
431212 429210 426208 423208 416209 408210 395203 390204
388206 388208 391213 395218 398223 395226 391228 389230
388236 390239 393243 399246 406248 415249 429246 445248
462248 471251 479255 485260 491268 497276 502282 506283
508281 514276 516272
0.25 525198 523188 522182 518177 516174 511170 507168 502166
500168 500172 502178 506181 509184 514189 517193 519196
522198 525198
0.25 482160 476156 472150 466133 461128 454132 451139 448142
445142 441141 439139 436139 434144 432152 432160 431163
429164 426168 427174 433177 437178 439177 447177 451176
453172 456164 458160 461158 470159 478163 482160
0.25 466106 465101 461097 458093 455090 450092 444094 440094
435096 432100 430105 428108 426112 428116 432117 436117
440117 446121 450123 453122 456120 458114 462110 466106
0.25 374754 371747 366745 358743 349746 343750 340753 333763
330770 322789 316798 311803 306812 302821 299831 296840
295848 293858 287876 281894 279905 279913 282915 286915
292914 298911 304906 310898 320882 336846 339837 341833
344830 351825 357820 360815 364806 366796 371775 374754
0.50 514262 501225 497217 494214 490213 481211 476211 473213
466213 458215 443217 436218 429220 427223 428225 431233
438239 441241 446243 463243 470243 478246 484250 488255
490259 499274 501277 505275 504268 501264 496255 493248
489241 484240 481238 480235 478231 472230 467231 466227
468222 476216 485220 490225 494234 496238 500242 504248
507255 510262 514262
0.50 453163 454159 454155 453151 450149 447149 444148 442146
440145 439144 438145 436146 435148 434152 435156 435157
436160 437163 440165 443167 446169 448169 450167 452166
453163
0.50 455110 456105 455103 455101 453098 450097 447098 444098
441098 438099 436100 435102 434104 433108 435111 438112
441113 443115 446116 449115 452113 455110 455110
0.50 419241 418236 414231 413227 415220 413216 411215 408216
405214 403211 398207 396207 392210 395214 398218 404224
402228 397230 394233 395238 400242 403244 412244 416244
419241
0.50 363752 360749 355750 351752 347755 342762 337770 330783
323798 320806 315811 311811 308815 305823 302830 300837
300845 297855 293870 289885 287893 286896 288900 299899
305894 308888 314874 317866 319859 326843 332830 340815
351785 355776 357769 360761 363752
1.00 462220 460219 457218 454218 451219 448219 445219 444220
442221 439222 438222 439223 442225 444226 447225 448225
451224 454223 454222 457221 460223 462220
1.00 445158 444155 443153 441152 438152 438153 438154 439157
441159 443160 445158
1.00 413239 410237 407236 406237 407238 410238 413239
24HR QP VT 18/12Z
0.01 525256 517241 515233 511224 503212 499206 495203 491199
486198 480200 474202 468205 458203 455203 454198 458192
464188 471186 479188 485192 491196 499199 506200 511203
524215 531219 535218 537212 538206 538200 535191 529179
528174 525169 521162 517157 511152 492134 486130 482127
477125 473124 470126 468129 466131 464130 460128 456129
451134 452137 450142 435145 432151 432159 435165 439170
442173 443176 440181 438185 437189 437193 438198 441204
446209 448212 445213 437212 434212 432213 428219 426227
423232 421233 416236 413240 414246 417251 422256 429259
435258 449256 463256 467257 475260 484268 490278 496286
511296
0.01 471717 469712 467709 464710 460713 450723 445729 442734
436745 430759 426772 419795 416803 415811 414817 414825
414829 415833 414840 411851 408866 406880 406888 407892
410893 414889 417884 423871 425865 427862 428860 431862
434866 437867 441866 444865 447865 445870 441876 439882
442885 446886 451892 452902 456909 460912 462920 464944
467950 471951 475949 478945 483939 486934 488926 489917
489908 489897 488886 487880 485874 480870 479860 479855
477849 473838 470833 466828 460808 458804 453797 450791
452783 457769 465744 470728 471717
0.01 465106 465102 462098 461090 458073 457063 457053 460039
460033 458027 458015 458994 459985 460977 460963 458953
455945 451941 447934 446928 445923 443919 439916 433919
430924 428932 426947 424953 421959 419966 418971 420978
424984 432995 439004 440016 438027 435035 434040 435049
436056 434062 433067 434072 436076 441081 443084 439085
434088 428089 425092 427096 427100 423103 420111 417118
419127 419133 416140 415146 414155 416161 420162 423164
425169 428172 427175 431175 434172 434169 426161 422158
420154 423147 425139 431125 434122 438120 443121 446124
449124 455121 460115 464110 465106
0.01 412223 414219 413216 410218 408222 406225 409227 410226
412223 412223
0.01 370760 364752 357749 351752 347757 344765 344773 345785
345795 346803 348805 352806 354804 358800 363793 367785
370775 371770 371763 370760
0.01 405217 405213 403209 402208 400204 398204 395203 392204
389204 388205 388206 390209 391210 393212 396214 396215
399216 401217 404217 405217
0.01 323816 322811 319807 307808 295802 292798 284795 274792
264791 258792 252794 246797 244800 241806 240811 239815
241822 244822 247820 251818 254818 258819 264822 268825
277830 292838 299849 306852 309849 314838 319828 322820
323816
0.25 516277 517272 518267 517258 514247 510235 506225 499215
497212 491208 485206 479206 471209 467211 461211 455215
445217 441219 438222 438228 437234 435238 436242 442247
448248 456248 468249 474251 480254 484259 489266 496277
499281 504285 509284 512281 516277
0.25 501173 499168 496163 493161 488157 485156 481155 476156
471158 471163 472165 475168 481172 483175 489178 495178
499177 501173
0.25 450105 451101 450100 447101 444104 443105 441108 441109
444109 445109 447107 450105 450105
0.50 513271 515265 514261 512254 508241 504229 501224 497218
492214 486212 479212 476213 473214 472217 474218 478219
484222 486224 489228 489231 488234 486233 482233 480230
477227 472228 470227 469223 471220 470216 464214 444220
443224 446228 446231 444233 440239 442242 445244 452244
456244 462244 468245 476248 482251 486255 489261 496273
499276 504281 508278 510274 513271
1.00 502271 501267 500265 499262 497260 496257 495254 494252
492248 489244 487242 485246 486248 487251 488253 490256
490258 493262 495266 497269 500272 502271
1.00 480239 479237 477234 476233 475233 473235 472237 472238
475241 478242 480239
1.00 461220 460220 457219 460221 461220
$$
