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FXUS04 KWBC 100620
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 10/1200 UTC THRU MAR 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...SRN PLAINS AND MID MS/LWR OH VLYS ENEWD INTO WRN NEW ENG AND
NRN PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE NWRN GTLKS...
XCP FOR SOME VRY MINOR TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS..THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE MAJOR H5
SYS PULLING NEWD OUT CNTRL GT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
GTLKS BY WED MRNG..WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS LIKELY WITH THIS SYS FM
THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD INTO NEW ENG..AND HVY SNOWS XPCD FM THE NRN
PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE NWRN GTLKS. AHD OF THE H5 SYS..A STG
SWLY LLJ AOA 50KTS WL CONT TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AND LCLY HVY
OVRRNG RNFL EVENT FM THE MIDWEST ENEWD INTO WRN NEW ENG..WITH PWS
ABV 1.25 INCHES BEING PULLED AS FAR N AND E AS THE OH VLY ON
TUE..AND GTR THAN 1 INCH PWS REACHING WRN NEW ENG TUE NGT. SYS WL
BE A STEADY MOVR..BUT STRENGTH OF INFLO AND HI MSTR AVBLTY SHLD
STILL SUPPORT SOME LCLY HVY RNFL AMTS..ESP VCNTY OF THE SERN
GTLKS. NAM AND GFS QPFS WERE ACTUALLY IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT
HERE..SO DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FM THEM AND XPC AN AXIS OF 1-2 INCH
RAINS NRN IN ENEWD INTO SWRN NY STATE. FARTHER TO THE S AND
W..CDFNT PUSHING THRU THE LWR OH AND MID MS VLYS AND SRN PLAINS
SHLD BE CNVCTVLY ACTIVE..ESP LTR TUE AFTN AND NGT..IN ZONE OF STG
LOW LVL CNVGNC..AND IN REGIONS OF MODEST HGT FALLS AND RT ENTRANCE
JET DYNAMICS. PREFER THE SLGTLY HVIER GFS QPF SOLN HERE OVR THE
NAM SOLN..GIVEN POOLING OF SOME PWS VCNTY OF THE FNT TO GTR THAN
1.50 INCHES. AND FINALLY..VRY HVY SNOWS WL OCCUR ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THIS SYS FM THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS ENEWD THRU MUCH OF MN INTO
NWRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI..GENLY ALG/LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE STG
H5 VORT AND LOW LVL CNTRS. AGAIN..NOT TOO MUCH TO ARGUE WITH
REGARDING THE MDL QPFS..WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATING SOME
GTR THAN 0.50 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS NRN MN INTO EXTRM NWRN WI AND
THE WRN U.P. OF MI. PLS SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE
SNOWFALL POTNL HERE.
...GT BASIN/ROCKIES...
NEG TILT AND LIFTING OUT H5 TROF WL CONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
GENLY LGT SNOWS OVR PTNS OF THE NRN GT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
MSTLY 1ST HALF OF THE PD..WITH WTR EQUIVALENTS GENLY BLO 0.25
INCHES EVEN IN THE MORE FAVORED HIER TERRAIN. MDL QPFS WERE IN
GENL AGREEMENT ON THIS..AND SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE.
TERRY
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 11/12Z
0.01 531836 527814 524803 522796 515782 507771 481730 455709
448704 440699 426695 418691 413690 407692 403698 401704
400716 398737 399750 399755 399762 401767 400771 401778
401781 394798 376830 363850 362854 358859 353868 345885
337902 330917 326925 322932 309961 306966 305972 300981
291000 288006 286010 281013 278016 276021 277028 279033
285037 290042 295040 296039 301032 306026 312018 319003
324995 330988 337979 344972 350967 354964 358961 367955
370953 373949 377948 381944 388941 396942 399944 402947
405950 407957 409966 409973 409984 408996 405010 405023
407029 411034 414039 416044 415051 413053 404053 399052
393053 385057 378057 370055 363058 359062 358066 359069
365076 369082 372086 373090 375096 378099 381099 383097
388096 394095 398091 404083 415079 418076 423073 428076
426080 422084 421091 422095 422099 420103 418107 414109
412108 411105 409098 407101 405105 399112 398117 400121
403124 405125 407124 410123 413124 420126 422131 426128
430124 435122 441123 446125 449126 450131 446136 439144
436149 436154 437157 442166 446174 444181 441186 440189
439195 441199 444203 446200 446196 448193 452193 454191
458185 462180 462177 459175 455172 456168 458166 462166
465167 472171 478171 484169 487163 490156 494152 497149
500146 502138 501131 497121 491112 474100 471088 465085
463082 459073 462063 470056 474051 477045 479038 478024
478015 478011 480005 483994 487982 493972 504954 513937
518926 521916 527892 529881 530867 531836
0.01 467218 464215 459213 451213 446213 442215 436217 421225
419229 418235 418244 420249 425251 432250 446245 450242
449237 443236 437236 433237 425234 429231 435229 441229
446229 453227 461225 466221 467218
0.01 294062 294058 291055 285055 280054 277053 273050 269048
266048 264050 266055 269058 272060 277062 280063 285065
291064 294062
0.25 520856 519849 518841 514830 510825 506822 499819 493818
488819 481822 476828 473836 469848 466852 465858 463866
462874 460881 456888 453895 452902 451910 450931 450948
451961 454971 458976 461979 466981 470980 476977 483966
491951 498936 509907 512898 515888 518872 520856
0.25 463773 463765 461758 458751 455745 451739 445731 436722
429719 423718 420720 416723 413732 411740 410748 408762
407771 407779 406791 403799 397814 394821 389828 381838
375844 371851 366859 364864 353890 339917 333930 327941
320956 315969 313976 311982 312984 314987 318986 330975
340966 350957 358947 369935 375929 380924 395918 403916
408913 411910 415901 417893 421885 428873 430867 433858
439839 445824 448817 454811 459804 462797 463789 464783
463773
0.50 511860 510850 507844 504841 500839 496839 490839 485842
480846 477857 475867 473874 471879 467888 463900 461911
463929 464937 466943 471955 474957 479954 485947 489938
494926 498915 505892 510866 511860
0.50 449760 444749 439740 433732 428728 425728 422729 419735
417743 414760 411771 411781 410790 409799 403817 400826
398833 395845 396848 396855 394872 391883 388892 386900
386904 387907 393905 396908 402907 405904 413889 418880
420872 426857 429847 432837 438821 447802 450795 452784
452777 451768 449760
0.50 380870 380865 378863 375863 373865 369870 366875 356894
345916 340926 334936 329946 324955 323962 323966 325968
327968 332965 341958 346955 349951 362932 373912 378899
379893 380889 378885 376880 377875 380870
1.00 487897 492889 495881 493873 488874 481888 480897 483899
487897
1.00 411872 417865 426842 431814 435790 435780 431775 427775
426772 423768 421771 420777 418786 415799 413809 410819
408827 406836 407856 406864 407871 411872
1.00 353932 359917 357913 356913 352916 345931 341937 341941
342945 347942 353932
1.50 426807 425800 423796 421799 419809 413834 413848 415853
418851 420845 424821 425812 426807
$$
