| Table 23. Comparison of petroleum forecasts (million barrels per day, except where noted) | |||||||
| Projection |
|
|
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|
|
Low
world oil price |
High
world oil price |
WEFA | GRI | DRI |
|
|
|
|
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| World
oil price
(1996 dollars per barrel) |
20.81 | 14.44 | 26.87 | 19.77 | 17.04a | 20.99 | NA |
| Crude oil and NGL production | 7.81 | 6.82 | 8.55 | 7.62 | 7.74 | 7.63 | 8.49 |
| Crude oil | 5.57 | 4.63 | 6.28 | 5.34 | 5.37 | 5.34b | 6.22 |
| Natural gas liquids | 2.24 | 2.19 | 2.27 | 2.28 | 2.37 | 2.29 | 2.27 |
| Total net imports | 13.67 | 15.74 | 12.16 | 11.80 | NA | 12.68 | 12.33 |
| Crude oil | 10.67 | 11.71 | 9.91 | 9.82 | NA | 9.74 | NA |
| Petroleum products | 3.00 | 4.03 | 2.25 | 1.99 | NA | 2.93 | NA |
| Petroleum demand | 22.70 | 23.59 | 22.12 | 20.94 | 21.71 | 21.69 | 21.70 |
| Motor gasoline | 9.75 | 10.14 | 9.56 | 8.79 | 8.78 | 9.54 | 9.02 |
| Jet fuel | 2.53 | 2.55 | 2.52 | 2.15 | 2.35 | 2.08 | 2.07 |
| Distillate fuel | 4.09 | 4.17 | 4.07 | 3.80 | 4.09 | 3.87 | 4.06 |
| Residual fuel | 0.88 | 1.11 | 0.82 | 1.10 | 1.02 | 0.92 | 1.09 |
| Other | 5.45 | 5.62 | 5.17 | 5.10 | 5.47 | 5.29 | 5.45 |
| Import
share of product supplied
(percent) |
60.0 | 67.0 | 55.0 | 56.4 | NA | 58.4 | 56.8 |
|
|
|||||||
| World
oil price
(1996 dollars per barrel) |
22.32 | 14.43 | 28.71 | 21.38 | NA | 26.08 | NA |
| Crude oil and NGL production | 7.39 | 6.31 | 8.50 | 7.85 | NA | 7.34 | NA |
| Crude oil | 4.92 | 3.92 | 5.99 | 5.18 | NA | 4.92b | NA |
| Natural gas liquids | 2.47 | 2.39 | 2.51 | 2.67 | NA | 2.42 | NA |
| Total net imports | 15.98 | 18.42 | 13.75 | 13.89 | NA | 14.54 | NA |
| Crude oil | 11.65 | 12.89 | 10.59 | 10.60 | NA | 10.09 | NA |
| Petroleum products | 4.33 | 5.53 | 3.16 | 3.21 | NA | 4.45 | NA |
| Petroleum demand | 24.39 | 25.59 | 23.61 | 23.24 | NA | 23.33 | NA |
| Motor gasoline | 10.39 | 10.99 | 10.06 | 9.56 | NA | 9.98 | NA |
| Jet fuel | 3.03 | 3.07 | 3.01 | 2.71 | NA | 2.34 | NA |
| Distillate fuel | 4.25 | 4.42 | 4.22 | 4.20 | NA | 4.28 | NA |
| Residual fuel | 0.99 | 1.23 | 0.93 | 1.23 | NA | 1.00 | NA |
| Other | 5.72 | 5.88 | 5.38 | 5.54 | NA | 5.73 | NA |
| Import
share of product supplied
(percent) |
66.0 | 72.0 | 58.0 | 59.4 | NA | 62.3 | NA |
| Notes:
aComposite of U.S. refiners’ acquisition cost. bIncludes shale and other. NA = Not available. Sources: AEO98: AEO98 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO98B.D100197A (reference case), LWOP98.D100197C (low world oil price case), and HWOP98.D100197A (high world oil price case). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (Spring/Summer 1997). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1998 Edition. DRI: DRI/McGraw-Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook, Spring 1997 (April 1997). IPAA: Independent Petroleum Association of America, IPAA Supply and Demand Committee Long-Run Report (April 1997). |
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