| Table 24. Comparison of coal forecasts (million short tons, except where noted) | ||||||
| Projection |
|
|
||||
| Reference | Low
economic growth |
High
economic growth |
WEFA | GRI | DRI | |
|
|
||||||
| Production | 1,326 | 1,223 | 1,415 | 1,263 | 1,427 | 1,365 |
| Consumption by sector | ||||||
| Electricity generationa | 1,103 | 1,012 | 1,183 | 1,050 | 1,262 | 1,188 |
| Coking plants | 24 | 24 | 24 | 37 | 25 | 22 |
| Industrial/other | 88 | 77 | 97 | 66 | 70 | 75 |
| Total | 1,215 | 1,113 | 1,305 | 1,153 | 1,357 | 1,284 |
| Net coal exports | 112 | 112 | 112 | 108 | 71 | 79 |
| Minemouth price | ||||||
| (1996 dollars per short ton) | 13.99 | 13.87 | 14.05 | 15.20 | 13.42 | NA |
| (1996 dollars per million Btu) | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.64 | NA |
| Average delivered price, electricity | ||||||
| (1996 dollars per short ton) | 20.72 | 20.26 | 20.99 | NA | 23.93 | 21.58 |
| (1996 dollars per million Btu) | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.05 |
|
|
||||||
| Production | 1,376 | 1,258 | 1,501 | 1,368 | NA | 1,424 |
| Consumption by sector | ||||||
| Electricity generationa | 1,147 | 1,042 | 1,258 | 1,138 | NA | 1,246 |
| Coking plants | 23 | 23 | 23 | 37 | NA | 20 |
| Industrial/other | 87 | 73 | 101 | 67 | NA | 76 |
| Total | 1,257 | 1,138 | 1,382 | 1,242 | NA | 1,342 |
| Net coal exports | 120 | 120 | 120 | 122 | NA | 80 |
| Minemouth price | ||||||
| (1996 dollars per short ton) | 13.27 | 13.14 | 13.50 | 15.10 | NA | NA |
| (1996 dollars per million Btu) | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.70 | NA | NA |
| Average delivered price, electricity | ||||||
| (1996 dollars per short ton) | 19.52 | 18.91 | 20.01 | NA | NA | 20.86 |
| (1996 dollars per million Btu) | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.99 | 1.11 | NA | 1.01 |
| Notes:
aThe DRI and AEO98 forecasts for electricity generation include nonutility generators. Consumption by industrial cogenerators is included in industrial consumption. The WEFA values for electricity consumption have been adjusted by including consumption by nonutility generators (11.2 million tons in 2015 and 2020). NA = Not available. Btu = British thermal unit. Sources: AEO98: AEO98 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO98B.D100197A (reference case), LMAC98.D100197A (low economic growth case), and HMAC98.D100197A (high economic growth case). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (Spring/Summer 1997). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1998 Edition, and Coal Demand and Price Projections, Vol. I, GRI-95/0493.1 (February 1996), Table 4-3. DRI: DRI/McGraw-Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook, Spring 1997 (April 1997). |
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