AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
938 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
SATELLITE PIX SHOWING CU FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL OF
DEPARTING UPPER LOW ROTATING SWD ACROSS GA THIS EVENING. 21Z RUC
SHOWS THIS STAYING MOSTLY N AND E OF CWA. A FEW ELEMENTS COULD WORK
THEIR WAY S TO FL...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST SHOULD DO IT. MIN
TEMP FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST LAMP NUMBERS...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED A BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED SO WILL LEAVE
PATCHY FOG WORDING IN ZONES CONSIDERING WINDS ALREADY AT 3 KT AND
SHOULD GO CALM ACROSS BIG BEND.
MAW
FXUS62 KMLB 150106 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW ACROSS SC WITH TRAILING
TROF NEAR THE TLH AREA ATTM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE INCREASED
TO THE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE TROF IN RESPONSE TO THE SW
FLOW. AT MID LVLS...W/V LOOPS SHOWS DRY AIR INTRUDING BEHIND A LINE
OF CONVECTION THAT STRETCHES FROM BAKER THROUGH GILCHRIST COUNTY
AND INTO THE GULF PER 88D. PLENTY OF MSTR FLUX CONV ALONG THIS LINE
PER SFC RUC. SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AFFECTING AREAS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
JAX UNMODIFIED MORNING SNDG HAD A 2000 CAPE WITH PW OF 1.5 AND WET
BULB OF 9700 FT. SO THIS ARE ALL INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. THEN DRYING STARTS AS
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. I HAVE AMENDED THE ZONES FOR
THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SE OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE THE
POPS TO 50 AND SHOW THE DRYING TEND STARTING DURING THE AFTN.
CWF ON TRACK
18
fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1000 AM EST FRI MAY 14 1999
LATEST VIS SAT SHOWING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER MS SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN OVER SE CORNER. 12Z RUC2 BRINGS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO STILL LOOKING
FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST SAT TRENDS
FOR EXACT BREAKDOWN AND WORDING IN UPDATE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEAK OMEGA FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL LEAVE
FCST DRY ATTM. EARLY SUNSHINE HAS 15Z TEMPS ALREADY NEAR 60F BUT
WITH INC IN CLOUDS EXPECTED SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE OF A RISE BUT
STILL MAY NEED TO BUMP UP A LITTLE.
.IWX...NONE.
JAL
FXUS73 KIND 140844 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
910 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
WL UPDATE FOR DVLPG SHWRS AND LGT RAIN OVR WRN CWA AND PORTIONS OF
CNTRL. ALSO ADJSTD TEMPS UPWARD AS CLD CVR OVR MUCH OF THE ST WITH
SUM INCREASING RH. SFC TRAJS WULD SUGGEST UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.
GLANCE AT ADAP AND PRLFR NTWRK DATA SHOW INCRSG MOISTR CONVRG W AND
WK CAP ALG WITH SUM INSTBLTY. RUC SPTS TRENDS WITH LTST PCKG.
.DSM...NONE
FORSTER
FXUS63 KDMX 142031 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
...LOW CLOUDS COMPLICATING SHORT TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMS IN THE LONG TERM...
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BACKED INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH
08Z. LATEST RUC WOULD THIN THESE BY NOON TIME WHILE AND ETA/NGM
925MB RH FIELDS SHOW THE SAME TREND. THUS WILL HAVE SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAY GO MORE WITH A 75 TO 80 DEGREE TEMP SPREAD FOR
HIGHS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND. CONVECTION
IN NEBRASKA WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME CONCERN COULD BUILD SOUTH INTO
AC DECK OVER NORTH CENTRAL THUS WILL KEEP SOME MENTION FOR
CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS LIFTING
PIECE OF ENERGY NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND SHOULD ALSO GIVE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL. IN THE
MEANTIME...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH WITH ETA
PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT AVN AT LEAST GOING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. HIGH CAPES BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURE THAT MODELS INITIALLY START
OUT HANDLING SIMILAR OVER UTAH AND NEVADA...PUSHES EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH TIME AS IT PUSHES EAST.
IN ANY CASE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR BREEDING OF
STORMS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE FAN GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR CWA...40 TO 50
PERCENTS AND WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL. WILL KEEP 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SATURDAY. MAY HAVE
SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE START OF DAY AND
BOUNDARIES COULD BE PLENTIFUL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LEFT AROUND. WAS TEMPTED
TO GO IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE BUT WILL STICK WITH AROUND 80 FOR
NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUDS. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPES...SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW AND LOOK FOR ONE MORE RUN TO POSSIBLY
BETTER HELP DEFINE AREAS.
.TOP...NONE
FRANTZ
FXUS63 KDDC 140817 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING INVERTED TROF SPLITTING ERN KY WITH MSAS DATA
SHOWING BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NRN FA. BEST INSTABILITY IS IN NE
KY WHERE 14Z CAPES VIA LAPS DATA 400-500 J/KG. VIS SATELLITE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PLENTY OF LOW CLDS ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER WRN NC. AT 8H
COLD POCKET OF AIR IS CENTERED NR BNA AT 12Z AND 5H COLD POOL IS EAST
OF APPLS. 12Z RUC AND 00Z ETA SHOW S/W RIDING ARND BACKSIDE OF LOW INTO
WRN KY THIS AFTN. SFC-850 THETA-E RIDGE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST THIS AFTN
AS DOES INVERTED TROF. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN OUR
ERN/NE FA INSTEAD OF SW CWA. CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SUN WILL WE GET. WILL
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM FOR THE AFTN UPDATE.
TEMPS GIVEN THE CLD COVER APPEAR ON TARGET.
SHOULD HAVE AN UPDATE OUT BY 1515Z. CALL WITH ANY COMMENTS.
.JKL...NONE.
WHP
FXUS63 KJKL 140813 ky
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
858 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
13Z ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC HIGH OVER AR WITH RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SW LA.
AT MID-UPPER LVLS...RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER NE-CNTRL TX WITH W-NW FLOW
OVER FA. SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. RUC/MESOETA PLACE VORT MAX OVER
E TX MOVING ACROSS LA AROUND 15/00Z-03Z. AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS
FCST PKG...BELIEVE MOST TSRA WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MOST ACTIVITY OVER
NE TX/N LA/AR. CURRENT FCST PKG LOOKS GOOD...SUGGEST NO CHANGES ATTM.
13
BPT UB 086/068 087/071 001
LCH UB 087/069 087/071 001
LFT UB 087/064 088/072 001
AEX UB 086/060 088/068 001
FXUS74 KLIX 140847 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
735 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
PCPN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WRN AND SRN PORTION OF THE CWA.
LATEST RUC AND 03Z MESOETA INSIST THAT THIS PCPN WILL BE SUPPRESSED
SWD THIS AFTERNOON. A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES WAS ISSUED TO ACCT
FOR PCPN BEING A BIT FURTHER N THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. THE PUBLIC
FCSTR WILL REEVALUATE THE SITUATION IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.
.LWX...NONE.
WALSTON
md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1040 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE TEMPS/CLOUDS/WIND.
IR LOOP INDICATED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACRS UPR MI WITH AC/CI WEST OF
UPR FROM NRN MN INTO SW WI. AS BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPR LVL RDG OVER
NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT BAND OF MID/HI
CLDS TO EDGE INTO WRN UPR MI PER 00Z RUC FCST 700-400 MB RH. PATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALSO MOVING TOWARD AREA FROM
LWR MI AND SRN LK MI. WL KEEP MENTION OF PARTLY CLDY INTO SRN UPR
MI GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS AND 00Z RUC 295K-300K FCST OF LOWER COND
PRES DEFICITS TOWARD AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z.
DEWPOINTS OVER AREA GENERALLY IN THE 30S...AT LEAST 10F HIGHER THAN
LAST NIGHT. COMBINATION OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE AND BNDRY LYR WIND TO
AROUND 15 KTS BETWEEN RECEDING SFC RDG OVER QUEBEC AND LO OVER HIGH
PLAINS WL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS ALLOWED WIND TO BECOME LIGHTER OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. WL MAINLY
FRESHEN WORDING WITH GOING FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 150206 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1007 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN LOWER
ASSOCIATED WITH SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES. CIRCULATION PULLING SOME CI BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY...WHILE PATCH OF MID LEVEL AC ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO ALSO BEGINNING TO MAKE SOME INROADS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
AS MID LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME SC/AC
ALSO FORMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 12Z
ETA/00Z RUC ISENTROPIC PROGS SHOW MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TURNING MORE
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PULL SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER NORTH. ON THE
NEGATIVE SIDE...00Z APX SOUNDING VERY DRY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS >
20C AOA 800MB...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. CURRENT FORECAST OF
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SOUTHWEST CWA LOOKS GOOD...WILL EXPAND THIS TO
COVER THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES FROM APN ON SOUTH. 00Z RUC
CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT IS MISSING OUT ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER ONTARIO.
FORECAST MINS LOOK GOOD FOR MOST AREAS...MAY EXPAND RANGE FOR TVC/MBL
GROUP WITH AN EAST/ SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE BREEZE...AND APN GROUP WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER LATE. UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 0225Z.
.APX...NONE.
JPB
FXUS63 KGRR 150137 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
235 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
SFC RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW FROM HIGH INTO MI. UPSTREAM SFC TROF
LOCATED OUT ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SFC
HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST...WHILE SFC TROF MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP
FOR SUNDAY.
ALOFT...HIGH LOCATED OVR ONTARIO...WITH AN UPR LOW OVR THE CAROLINAS.
EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES IS TRYING TO PUSH MSTR
OUR DIRECTION. THROUGH TIME...WESTERN UPR TROF MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVR THE FCST AREA. CONCERNS THIS
SHIFT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD COVER...WITH
PCPN CHANCES INCREASING THE FURTHER WE PROGRESS INTO THE 5 DAY FCST.
MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE MAIN FEATURES BUT WILL
FOLLOW THE ETA FOR GUIDANCE THIS GO ARND.
FOR TONIGHT...MSTR TRYING TO BACK INTO MI FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT
APPEARS THAT BEST MSTR RETURN WILL BE IN THE SOUTH. WILL WORD FCST AS
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH. RUC MSTR AT 850MB/S APPEARS TO BE CORRELATING
WITH BETTER CLOUD AT 80PCT AND GREATER. 80PCT LINE RIDES UP TWRD
INTERSTATE 96 AT 03Z.
ON SATURDAY...MSTR MOVES WEST OF THE AREA WITH GENERALLY A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY EXPECTED. WILL WORD FCST AS PARTLY SUNNY NORTH...AND USE
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY IN THE SOUTH.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO MI FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN RH PROGS.
PARTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY SHOULD WORK AS WELL...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MORE ORGANIZED LIFT CLOSES IN FROM THE WEST.
GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE.
IN THE EXTENDED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN A CHC OF SHOWERS APPEARS WARRANTED.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
AREA WITH 850MB DEW POINTS GREATER THAN 10 DEG C. WILL CARRY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON-WED.
.GRR...NONE.
DUKESHERER
FXUS63 KGRR 141515 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1052 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH OVER JAMES BAY ADVECTING IN DRY AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST (AGAIN). CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE CLOUD
SHIELD TO THE SE OVER OHIO...HOW FAR NORTHWEST WILL IT MOVE.
12Z RUC SHOWS 850 MB 85% RH CONTOUR LINING UP WITH THE CLOUD EDGE.
THE RUC THEN TAKES THIS NORTH AND WEST INTO THE THE EXTREME SRN FCST
AREA BY 21Z AND JUST NORTH OF I-94 BY 00Z. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
REALISTIC CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH...CAN'T
SEE THE CLOUDS MAKING IT NORTH OF I-96. ETA/NGM WERE TOO QUICK TO
BRING IN THE CLOUDS; AVN WAS SIMILAR BUT 12HRS SLOWER. WILL RUN WITH
THE RUC FOR THE UPDATE. SRN COUNTIES WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE NEXT TIER NORTH WILL SEE THE SKY BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY LATE. EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY. TEMP FCST
LOOKS OK.
.GRR...NONE.
FXUS63 KDTX 141514 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1115 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SPEED AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH. THE 12Z ETA IS CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING THE AREA OF 850 MOISTURE NORTH TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY BY
00Z...WHEREAS THE RUC KEEPS IT MORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
CONSIDERING THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ERIE EVIDENCED ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR CLOUD COVER. HENCE WILL TAILOR BACK CLOUD
WORDING A LITTLE TO INFER FEWER CLOUDS...AND SLOWER TIMING. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENT IN THE 12Z RUN TO
ENCOURAGE LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER IN SOUTHEAST MI NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SO WILL ALSO TRIM BACK PRECIPITATION WORDING AS
WELL.
14Z LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID 60S TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
TRACK...AS INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HINDER FURTHER RISES. ALTHOUGH
WILL GO WITH A BROADER RANGE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS
PROGRESS IN.
.DTX...NONE.
STRUBLE
FXUS63 KMQT 141502 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1015 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW FAR EAST TO BRING CHANCES OF
PRECIP. WEAKENING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING ON EAST EDGE OF THETA-E RIDGE. LATEST RUC DOES NOT BRING
MUCH ADVECTION MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND NOT MUCH IN UPPER DYNAMICS. THERE IS SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH. LOOKS LIKE STRONG CONVECTION
IN NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS CRANK
UP IN OK AND KANSAS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING IN FAR WEST BUT CUT BACK
ON CENTRAL ZONES. MAY ALSO DELAY PRECIP UNTIL MAINLY LATE IN EAST
CENTRAL ZONES.
.MSP...NONE
RICHARDSON
mn
NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT FRI MAY 14 1999
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED THIS EVENING IN THE WRN HALF OF NEMONT WHERE
MORE INSOLATION OCCURRED LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STABILIZED THE AIRMASS AND PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TONGUE OF HIGHER DEWPT AIR COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ENHANCED
TSRA PRECIPITATION IN VALLEY COUNTY..WHERE RAINFALL OF 1/2-1" FELL IN
LESS THAN 2 HRS. THE RUC MODEL SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF
THE WRN TROUGH OVER NRN NV THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FOLLOW
THE PREVIOUS TREND OF TURNING NEWD TOWARD ERN MT/THE DAKOTAS ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.
WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND LOWER
EAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT. BURBACK
GGW 6335 038/065/041/062
GDV 3334 038/062/039/064
FXUS65 KBYZ 150232 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
145 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 1999
ETA IS NOT BAD ON ITS INITIALIZATION FOR 14/06Z...BUT THE VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN WHAT THIS MODEL
DEPICTS. FOR THAT REASON...WILL HAVE TO GO LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE. RUC
FOR 14/03Z RUN PLACES SASKATCHEWAN LOW IN A BETTER POSITION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS DO...BUT IT IS A BIT FAST ON PLACING THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY EAST OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. BELIEVE IT WILL GET EAST...BUT
NOT AS FAST AS THE RUC RUN DEPICTS.
WILL MAKE A MENTION OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING THAT SOME DID
FALL ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
CLEARING AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMPT MENTION OF SOME FOGGY AREAS
MAINLY FROM BILLINGS EAST THIS MORNING.
REASONABLE CAPES DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ZONES...BUT THE WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA
AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. BELIEVE...HOWEVER...RAINS WILL LINGER LONGER
THERE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP POPS UP THERE. ELSEWHERE...CAPES NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH UPPER
DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED OVER ALL ZONES.
MORE ENERGY TO COME IN ON SATURDAY TO GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS AGAIN TRICKY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL OF CLOUD SHIELDS WITH
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. HAVE MORE OR LESS KEPT WITH MOS BUT HAVE DONE
SOME COMPROMISING WITH FAN AS WELL.
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE NUDGED EAST PERHAPS ON MONDAY. WILL WANT TO LOOK AT OTHER
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE BEFORE REVISING WHAT PRESENTLY WE HAVE GOING. WILL
KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS IT READS NOW. CHB
BIL WW 058/038 058/041 061 52646
LVM .. 051/035 053/... ... 52646
HDN .. 060/037 060/... ... 52646
MLS .. 060/039 062/042 ... 52646
4BQ .. 059/037 061/... ... 52666
BHK .. 056/036 058/... ... 52676
SHR WW 056/035 056/039 059 52646
BUR WW 043/029 043/031 045 52646
mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE HAS MOVED THROUGH JACKSONVILLE AT 13Z AND THE
COOLER AIR STILL LAGS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. RADAR SHOWING MOST OF
THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL AWAY FROM CWA THIS MORNING BUT IR SATL
SHOWING CONVECTION CONTINUING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CLT.
09Z RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO THE ESE AND
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE SHOWS UPPER VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE CWA TO BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF IMPACT IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY COASTAL SC. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES OF
-16 DEGREES AT 500 MB AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS PRODUCE -5 TO -7 LIS.
THEREFORE WOULD NOT RULE OUT TSTM WITH SOME HAIL AS COLD CORE ALOFT
PASSES OVER THE CWA.
CWF...ALL OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND THE
13Z REPORT FROM FPSN7 SHOWING SOME AFFECTS OF THESE STORMS WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LAST HOUR BUT COASTAL OBS AT 12Z SHOW MORE OF
A EASTERLY COMPONENT. THUS WILL KEEP NE FLOW NORTH OF THE STATE
LINE BUT WILL TWEAK WINDS SOUTH OF THE BORDER. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCA NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. OBS SHOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTHWARD AND IF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES GET INTO THE
MARINE AREA THAN COULD SEE THIS INCREASE IN WINDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET NC.
HAWKINS
FXUS72 KRAH 141323 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
WILL UPDATE ZONES THIS EVENING TO DOWN PLAY THE CHANCES OF
PRECIP. HOWEVER WITH NEXT WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST...CAN NOT RULE
OUT MORE OF THE SAME ELEVATED STORMS. ALSO RUC SHOWING THAT STRATUS
WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS LATE THIS
EVENING RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S TO MID 60S AND WITH WINDS STAYING
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE MAY RAISE TEMPS IN SOME AREAS.
.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
6
FXUS64 KTSA 150201 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
KGSP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW DIMINISHING TREND TO PRECIP ACROSS WRN
PART OF FCST AREA. 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW A LACK OF UPPER FORCING
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
18Z ETA DOES SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COLDER CLOUD
TOPS OVER S CENTRAL VA WHICH COULD ROTATE DOWN ACROSS NE PART OF FCST
AREA. WILL PROBABLY HOLD ONTO SMALL PRECIP CHANCE OVER NW PIEDMONT...
AND MENTION LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NE GA...BUT
TAKE OUT PRECIP IN ALL OTHER ZONES. AS FOR TEMPS...EVEN THO SOME
READINGS ARE APPROACHING FCST LOWS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AS DRIER AIR SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR N.
.GSP...NONE.
MOORE
FXUS72 KCAE 150139 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
910 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
EARLIER CONVECTION REALLY HELPED JUMP-START FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND AT 00Z IT HAD PRESSED INTO EXTREME SRN S CAROLINA. BIG
QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS GIVEN THE WRAP-
AROUND FLOW AND NE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SATURATED GROUNDS.
WILL MONITOR STLT TRENDS BEFORE UPDATE BUT PLAN ON BEEFING
UP CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS BACK IN. HOW FAR S THEY
GET IS QUESTIONABLE BUT RUC SHOWS THEY COULD COULD GET INTO
AT LEAST NRN PART OF SE GEORGIA LATER TONIGHT. WILL LOWER
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY INLAND S CAROLINA.
CWF...CUR FCST LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. CD FNT HAS NOW MADE IT
TO NBC AS OF 00Z. WL INIT SC PTN OF WATERS WITH N WINDS...AND
GA WATERS W/VAR WINDS. WL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME NE BY LATE
TNGT ALL AREAS. WL REMOVE PCPN TNGT AS SHRA/TSRA HV MOVED
OFFSHORE. BLV SCA COND ARE LOOKING PRETTY DECENT SAT GIVEN
20+ KT WNDS OFF NC CST ATTM.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
RVT/TJR
FXUS62 KCHS 141948 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES OVER THE SC UPSTATE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FEEDING THE NRN PERIPHERY. CAPES HAVE
BUBBLED TO AROUND 500 OR BETTER FROM THE ERN ESCARPMENT OF THE MTNS TO
THE PIEDMONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING STATIONARY CONVECTION NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED FLOODING PROB CAN BE HANDLED WITH NOWCASTS AND
FFS/FFW SO NO NEED FOR FFA PRESENTLY.
09Z RUC SHOWS VORT MAX SLOWLY PULLING EAST OF AREA BY 18Z BUT WITH
CONTINUED WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER NRN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NE PIEDMONT SECTIONS. CURRENT PRECIP WORDING WILL WORK OK
BUT WILL BUMP TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH 65 TO 70 SRN PARTS AND MIDDLE
60S NRN FOOTS/PIED.
.GSP...NONE.
HG
FXUS72 KCAE 141335 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
925 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY TIMING OF PRECIP...AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
TRANSLATE NORTHEAST. PRECIP SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING IN ELONGATED
AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AT THE NORTH END OF
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. 00Z/15 RUC FORECASTS THIS CONVERGENCE
AXIS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH IN SLGT
RISK AREA OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THINK WE COULD
SEE MORE SUSTAINED BREAKS IN THE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVES IN...AND MORE MOISTURE
GETS TAPPED BY NEBRASKA CONVECTION...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE
AND MAKE ANY FURTHER ATTEMPTS FOR TIMING AT THIS POINT.
.FSD...NONE
HAMEN
FXUS63 KUNR 142049 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
835 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
KMRX 88D INDICATED THAT THE SHOWERS WERE LOSING INTENSITY (FOR SOME
SHOWERS... RAPIDLY). NOT SURPRISING WITH THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THESE
SHOWERS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TO A FEW SPRINKLES BY 01Z
AND COMPLETELY END BY 02Z. IR IMAGERY INDICATED THE WEST EDGE OF
CLOUDS ROUGHLY FROM CAMPBELL COUNTY TO MONROE COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS
HAVE A LARGE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM... AND THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS WELL. 18Z MESO-ETA HAD A MUCH BETTER
HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (80H AND BELOW) THAN THE 21Z RUC.
WITH THE MESO-ETA... EXPECT MUCH OF THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. THE 21Z
RUC AND MESO-ETA AGREED THAT SOME 70H MOISTURE COULD STILL ROTATE
BACK INTO SW VA/NE TN LATER TONIGHT... AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP CLOUDS
MORE VARIABLE THERE.
WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING... EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM AGAIN
TONIGHT. IT WON/T BE AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT WITH LESS RAIN TODAY AND
THE LOWEST LEVELS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRY. TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET.
RBP
FXUS64 KOHX 150030 tn
TENNESSEE/MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1001 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
VISIBLE SAT PIX INDICATES LOTS OF CLDS ACRS THE STATE THIS MRNG. WL
GO WITH MORE CLDS ACRS MID AND W TN IN THE UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN.
12Z RUC SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DSIPTG ACRS W AND MID TN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON..SO WL HINT AT PARTIAL CLEARING FOR MID AND W TN
TOWARD EVENING. ALSO..WITH MORE CLDS TEMPS WL NEED TO BE TRIMMED FOR
MID AND W TN.
.MEM...NONE.
SJM
FXUS64 KMRX 141438 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
CWA/FA ON BACK SIDE OF S/W...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THE 12Z RUC
SHIFTS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS S/W SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG THE WAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM H7 ON DOWN WILL REMAIN IN
THE CWA/FA. DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION.
LIKE THE IDEA FROM LATEST RUC AND MESOETA DATA SUGGESTING THAT
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND MID
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ADDRESSING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...FEEL IT
IS A LITTLE OVERPLAYED IN THE ZONES. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE MENTION
FOR THUNDER WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR 60F AND BOUNDARY IN THE
REGION.
12Z RUC ALSO INDICATES WEAK H5 S/W APPROACHING THE CWA/FA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THE MAIN
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS S/W WILL BE TO MAINTAIN CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
DM
FXUS64 KMRX 141437 tn
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
BASICALLY REFRAMED FORECASTS ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY OVER
MAVERICK..ZAVALA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND RUC
SHOWS IT TO BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ZONES LEFT
INTACT.
PRELIMS...
AUS 074/089 074/089 --11
SAT 074/089 074/089 --11
DRT 073/093 070/093 2222
.SAT...URBAN..SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY MAVERICK COUNTY TIL
11 PM CDT...
02/06
FXUS74 KEWX 150238 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
144 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
DRYLINE HAS MIXED E OF KMAF WITH DWPNTS INTO THE 30S WHILE TEMPS
HAVE SOARED INTO THE 90S. CAP HOLDING ATTM WITH SURFACE BASED CINH
ON THE ORDER OF 100 ACROSS ERN CWA PER 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS AND GOES
DERIVED SOUNDER DATA. 7H TEMPS STILL WARM AT AROUND 12 DEGREES C.
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHRTWV TROF MOVING E ACROSS
NRN MEXICO. 15Z RUC STILL ADVERTISING WINDS TO BACK...POSSIBLY
SLOWING EWD MOVEMENT OF DRYLINE. WITH MODERATE CAPE VALUES/STRONG
SURFACE/HEATING/WEAK SHRTWV TROF WOULD OPT TO LEAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FCST CENTRAL AREAS EWD. BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS
ACROSS SWRN USA THRU WEEKEND PROVIDING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DRYLINE TO CONTINUE ITS DIURNAL MOVEMENTS. MODERATE CAPES POSITIONED
INVOF ERN TIER AGAIN TMW WHILE WARM 7H TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE INHIBITIVE
FACTOR. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF TOKEN 10-20 POPS IN THE
FCST AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS TO BE
FURTHER S TMW.
MAF 64/95/63/93 10/10/10/10
CNM 62/96/61/94 0/0/0/0
MRF 51/87/49/85 -/-/-/-
P07 69/94/65/92 10/10/10/10
GPM
FXUS64 KSJT 141823 tx
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
1000 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 1999
PLENTY OF RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. CONCERN
FOR TODAY IS THIS MOISTURE MAY BE FUEL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
12Z RUC QUITE UNSTABLE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH...AND WITH CURRENT
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...SUN WILL BE ABLE TO DO ITS WORK. THUS UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS IN MOST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES.
12Z ETA SHOWS A NEW SOLUTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
IT SAGS TROUGH AND LOW FARTHER WEST WITH CUTOFF AT 700MB NEAR VEGAS
AND RESULTANT EASTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN UTAH. WILL
NEED TO PONDER THIS IDEA FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND COMPARE IT TO NEW
AVN RUN.
SLC 3662 CDC 4222 BURCH
.SLC...NONE.
FXUS65 KSLC 141000 ut
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
948 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWING CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN COOLING CLD
TOPS OFF HATTERAS THIS EVENING. SHOWERY BANDS CONTINUE NW WRAP
ARND MOTION ACRS SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL MODERATE PRECIP
LOOKS LIKELY ACRS SE VA/NE NC THRU MIDNIGHT. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTEST
FM MFV S TO DUCK NC WHERE WNDS APPROACHING 30 KTS. WNDS (OVR LAND)
RMN BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM BUT CURRENT ETA/RUC WND AND PRES PTN
SUGGEST CSTL AREAS ARND MOUTH OF BAY S COULD SEE ABV 30KTS SUSTAINED
THRU NIGHT. MLLW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARDS MINOR FLOODING
VALUES...STILL NOT THERE THOU. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST LOOKING
GOOD. MAY MAKE CHG TO PRECIP OVR SE CST WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
INCREASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. TEMPS SHLD HOLD AT CURRENT FCST
VALUES. HIGH TIDES OCCURING NOW ACRS MANY LOCALS SO WL WORD IT
ACCORDINGLY. SIDE NOTE...RF AMNTS STILL WELL BLO ANY RIVER/URBAN
FLOOD PBLM. 88D STP DID PRETTY GOOD WITH CURRENT OBSERVED RF AMNTS
PAST 24HRS.
.CWF...MARINE FCSTR NOT CHANGING MUCH ATTM.
.AKQ...SCA SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL CSTL WTRS
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MD/VA/NE NC CST.
HVY SURF ADV ALL CSTL WTRS.
SS
FXUS61 KRNK 150118 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
200 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO AREA FROM PLAINS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS IN THE FORM OF SOME STRATOCU AND FOG AS WEAK FLOW HAS
FAILED TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE. FOG HAS BECOME DENSE DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS THE LIGHTEST. WILL
MENTION MORNING FOG BURNING OFF IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN 1ST PERIOD.
ISOLATED MID LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN IOWA.
LATEST RUC OUTPUT CORRECTLY PAINTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THAT AREA...
THEN DISIPATES IT BY DAWN. LAST FEW IMAGES FROM DAVENPORT RADAR DO
INDEED SHOW SOME DECREASE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT IT MAY GET CLOSE TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
THE WORK ZONES...WILL BELIEVE THE TRENDS OFFERED BY RADAR/RUC AND
KEEP THE NORTHWEST DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS
WILL DETERMINE THE CALL. OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MIDDLE
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY...JUSTIFYING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS CRANKING BY END OF
DAY SO EXPECT MAXES WARMER THAN FAN...BUT NOT QUITE UP TO FWC.
STILL LIKE THE AVN SOLUTION WITH 2ND PERIOD AND BEYOND...HOWEVER THE
ETA IS NOT TO FAR OFF. PERSISTANT BLOCK OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PLAINS TROUGH. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW
FAR EAST THE MCS REMNANTS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT. MORE CONVECTION
SHOULD GET GOING LATE TODAY OVER NEBRASKA AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 POPS OVER THE WEST...SO WILL LEAVE THIS
INTACT FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH. IF ANY
PRECIPITATION DOES SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST...THEN IT WILL BE LATE AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. ..04..
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
COME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. ..04..
PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION...
SPI BB 076/060 082/062 085 04233
PIA BB 074/059 080/060 083 04233
DEC BB 075/059 080/061 084 04223
CMI BB 072/057 080/060 082 04112
MTO BB 072/057 080/060 082 04112
LWV BB 074/059 083/063 086 04112
FXUS73 KLOT 141938 il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1000 AM EST FRI MAY 14 1999
LATEST VIS SAT SHOWING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER MS SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUDS HANGING IN OVER SE CORNER. 12Z RUC2 BRINGS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO STILL LOOKING
FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST SAT TRENDS
FOR EXACT BREAKDOWN AND WORDING IN UPDATE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEAK OMEGA FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL LEAVE
FCST DRY ATTM. EARLY SUNSHINE HAS 15Z TEMPS ALREADY NEAR 60F BUT
WITH INC IN CLOUDS EXPECTED SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE OF A RISE BUT
STILL MAY NEED TO BUMP UP A LITTLE.
.IWX...NONE.
JAL
in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
910 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 1999
WL UPDATE FOR DVLPG SHWRS AND LGT RAIN OVR WRN CWA AND PORTIONS OF
CNTRL. ALSO ADJSTD TEMPS UPWARD AS CLD CVR OVR MUCH OF THE ST WITH
SUM INCREASING RH. SFC TRAJS WULD SUGGEST UPR 40S TO LOW 50S.
GLANCE AT ADAP AND PRLFR NTWRK DATA SHOW INCRSG MOISTR CONVRG W AND
WK CAP ALG WITH SUM INSTBLTY. RUC SPTS TRENDS WITH LTST PCKG.
.DSM...NONE
FORSTER
FXUS63 KDMX 142031 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
SEVERAL REPORTING STATIONS INDICATING GOOD FOG...AND WILL INCLUDE FOR
THE EARLY MORNING. S/WV EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RUC TIME MATCH/WIND
PROFILERS INTO ERN OK AT 06Z. MID CLOUDS MOVG EAST AHEAD OF THE
FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POP NWRN PART OF FA TODAY AS THE WEAK
MID LVL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE FA. INSTABILITY LIMITED...AND
FORCING/WIND FIELDS VERY WEAK...THUS PROBABLY -SHRA FOR THE MOST
PART IF ANYTHING MOVES IN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE S/WV CARRIES
ENOUGH LIFT/MSTR IN MID LVLS TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST.
ONE OTHER NOTE...MID CLOUDS FORMING OVER CNTRL IL...AND RUC SUGGESTS
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED
NGM AND PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEAS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER IN
SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/WVS ON WRN SIDE OF RIDGE OVER FA TO APPROACH
THE FA LATE TONIGHT. AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...AND WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN. WILL KEEP LOW POP GOING FOR SHRA/TSRA AS IN PREVIOUS
ZONES LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE STILL A LITTLE LOW ATTM
AS MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER . FWC MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH TODAY AS MID
CLOUDS APPROACH. LIKE FLP (FORECAST LAMP) AND FAN A LITTLE BETTER.
WILL CARRY A CHC OF CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN EXTENDED
PORTION...ONLY CHANGE TO EXTENDED.
.PAH...NONE.
NOLES
FXUS63 KLMK 150746 ky
NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT FRI MAY 14 1999
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED THIS EVENING IN THE WRN HALF OF NEMONT WHERE
MORE INSOLATION OCCURRED LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STABILIZED THE AIRMASS AND PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TONGUE OF HIGHER DEWPT AIR COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ENHANCED
TSRA PRECIPITATION IN VALLEY COUNTY..WHERE RAINFALL OF 1/2-1" FELL IN
LESS THAN 2 HRS. THE RUC MODEL SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF
THE WRN TROUGH OVER NRN NV THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FOLLOW
THE PREVIOUS TREND OF TURNING NEWD TOWARD ERN MT/THE DAKOTAS ON SAT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA.
WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND LOWER
EAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT. BURBACK
GGW 6335 038/065/041/062
GDV 3334 038/062/039/064
FXUS65 KBYZ 150232 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 1999
MAIN QUESTION FOR FCST TODAY IS WHEN AND IF LOW CLOUDS ERODE. MDLS ALL
KEEP HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH THE 03Z
RUC KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS THE FARTHEST NORTH. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD INVERSION AND HIGH RH ACROSS THE CWA. MDLS ADVERTISE DRYING BY
AFTERNOON. LATEST TRENDS UNEXPECTEDLY SHOW LOW LEVEL DRYING MAY ALREADY
BE OCCURRING. MOST VA MTR/S ARE VFR...INT/GSO HAVE JUST GONE VFR AND SVH
SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND. CLOUD AMOUNT WEIGHS HEAVILY ON THE FCST SINCE
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY TODAY CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY MORNING DZ...
SLOW CLEARING AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUID AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WARMING TREND. COORDINATION CCF
BELOW EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION.
AVL 65/49/71 000
CLT 66/53/77 000
GSP 68/53/77 000
.GSP...NONE.
RWH
FXUS62 KGSP 150208 sc
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING SLIGHT CLOUD TOP
WARMING TO THE ISOLATED SUPERCELL TO THE WEST OF LAREDO AND KCRP-88D
REF IMAGES ILLUSTRATE AN OVERALL SHRINKING/COLLAPSE TO THE
RIGHT-MOVING CELL IN THE LAST FEW IMAGES WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN
LTG STRIKES. AS A RESULT..THE SVR WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM AS MUCH OF
SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPED ALONG THE EDGE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE
GRADIENT AS EVIDENT IN THE VAPOR IMAGERY.
FELL THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURG THE AFTN TODAY WL BE MINIMAL AS
ATMOSPHERE REGAINS EQUILIBRIUM OVER THE FA. AVN/ETA DATA INDICATES
INCRG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN A THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE WRN
FA AGAIN TONIGHT..AND WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA OVER
THIS AREA IN RESPONSE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE.. FCST BY THE RUC..PASSES
OVHD.
DEEP S-SWLY FLOW WILL BE THE INHIBITING FACTOR..ASIDE FROM A
CONCENTRATED LIFTING MECHANISM..FOR PCPN OVER THE ERN FA. EXTENDED
FORECAST ADVERTISES THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN IN MON-WED TIME FRAME AS
THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES AND DIGS FARTHER S AS COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHTS RUN. MRF IS HINTING AT A LATE MON THROUGH EARLY WED
PERIOD FOR THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT...
CRP EB 088/074 089/075 088 ---
NGP 085/076 085/076 085
VCT EB 088/073 090/073 088 ---
LRD EB 098/076 100/076 098 -2-
BML.76 / JMC.84
.CRP...NONE.
FXUS64 KMAF 150753 tx
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON
230 AM PDT SAT MAY 15 1999
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THESE CLOUDS SHOW UP IN THE
500 AND 700MB NGM AND RUC MODELS. THEY ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THEN EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
INHIBIT THE HEATING FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WARMING IN THESE AREAS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MOUNTAINS OF THE PANHANDLE. LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE SUNDAY SO A LITTLE WARMING. SINCE THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG THE CANADA BORDER AND IN CANADA WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TAPPER
THEM OFF. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE THEN BACK TO LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE STATE BY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
.EXTENDED...LATEST MRF RUN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN IN
BREAKING DOWN WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER AREA ON SUNDAY AND REPLACING
IT WITH MOIST ZONAL FLOW. THE BREAKDOWN IS RESULTANT OF UPSTREAM TROF
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 160W. GIVEN SOUTHERN PROXIMITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT THIS TO BE BOTH WETTER AND MILDER THAT THE REGIME
WEVE SEEN THROUGH MOST OF MAY. WILL RAISE POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR MONDAY
AND SPEED UP TIMING WITH RIDGE AXIS WELL INTO CENTRAL MT BY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THEN TAKES OVER TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE A DECENT RAIN SHADOW NEAR THE CASCADES...BUT
UPSLOPE IN THE EAST COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILTY SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME SHOWERS. RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY OVER PANHANDLE.
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...
GEG 056/039/060 431
CQV 060/038/063 432
S86 056/039/059 552
COE 058/039/060 431
WWP 055/038/057 552
LWS 060/044/061 321
MOS 056/037/058
EAT 065/043/067 100
.GEG...NONE.
FXUS66 KSEW 150945 wa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
415 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW ENERGY MOVING THRU WRN US TROF IN TWO
PIECES... ONE FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO IA AND THE OTHER MVG THRU THE
DAKOTAS. JET ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW OVR NR LAKES LACKS MOISTURE
SO IS ONLY PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS. FCST QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR EAST
WILL PCPN MAKE IT INTO FCST AREA. AVN AND 06Z RUC LOOK GOOD AS FAR AS
MAINTAINING TWO AREAS OF PCPN...THE CHIEF ONE MVG SE ACRS IA/NE AND THE
SECOND ONE MVG NE THRU THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND MN. THINK PCPN WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR FCST AREA AS AIR IS PRETTY DRY AND UPPER
SUPPORT PASSING BY TO NW AND SE. MIGHT GET SOME SHOWERS IN WRN PART LATE
IN THE DAY SO A 40 PCT CHC OF RW/TRW IS OKAY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKS
TO BE TONIGHT AS AIR MOISTENS UP AND UPR DYNAMICS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE.
RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB
FXUS73 KMKX 150831 wi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
252 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS ON PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.
ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT. 07Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN ACROSS NEB...TO A LOW CENTER OVER KANSAS. DRYLINE
REACHES FURTHER SOUTH FROM THERE WITH WARM FRONT REACHING EAST ACROSS
KANSAS INTO SW MO/WEST ARK. SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ALONG KS/NEB BORDER AND THIS SHOWING AS A BUBBLE HIGH ON THE
SURFACE MAP. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF COLD TOPS EXTENDING
ACROSS IA AND MUCH OF MN. INDEED REGIONAL RADARS ALSO QUITE BUSY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEADING EDGE HAVING DIFFICULTY REACHING
THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LACK OF RAIN...AND ALSO LOW
DEWPOINTS. BUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING WELL WITH TIME. DEWPOINT
GRADIENT RUNS FROM 39 AT MEDFORD TO 52 AT CHARLES CITY AT 07Z.
MODELS HAVE THE BASIC TRENDS DOWN...BUT FAVOR AVN/ETA SOLUTIONS MOST AS
NGM LOOKS TOO DEEP AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE FEATURES IN LATER
PERIODS. AND NONE REALLY HAS A GRASP ON CURRENT PRECIPITATION FALLING.
EVEN 03Z RUC MISSING THE BOAT. FIRST OFF...WILL HAVE TO GO CATEGORICAL
FOR AT LEAST THE WEST 2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN.
JUST TOO MUCH THERE FOR THE RIDGE AND DRY AIR TO KILL OFF. WILL ALSO
JUICE POPS SOME FOR THE NORTH AND EAST APPENDAGE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
SUPPORT FADE. MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IN MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT...AND
SOME OF THIS LIKELY TO TRACK INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMES INTO PLAY FOR SUNDAY...AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TODAY AND IN LINE WITH GOING
FORECAST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...FASTER AND MORE NORTH
SOLUTION OF NGM IN LATER PERIODS DRYING AND WARMING AREA IN FWC NUMBERS
TOO MUCH. WILL TREND CLOSER TO FAN TEMPERATURES AND POPS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH ON RIVERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE
TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD...SEVERAL IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA
CONTINUE TO RUN PRETTY HIGH.
.LSE...NONE.
WELVAERT
FXUS63 KGRB 142041 wi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 1999
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SW INTO ERN KY WITH A
WEAK MOIST BOUNDARY IN SCNLT KY WHICH EVIDENCED BY THE LOW CLS THERE.
STRONG MAY SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN SCOURING OUT
THE LOW CLDS FAST IN OUR ERN 1/2 OF CWA. USING LOCAL CURU...IT APPEARS
SKIES WILL BE PSNY IN OUR SW CWA THIS AFTN...MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.
12Z 8H ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGHEST MOISTURE SOUTH IN TN WITH THERMAL RIDGE
NORTH OF OH RVR. IT APPEARS THAT 12Z RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND
00Z ETA FROM LAST NIGHT DOING WELL WITH MOISTURE. AM CONCERNED WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST ZONES WHERE IT IS CLEARING NOW GIVEN THAT
COLD POOL IS JUST EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...1000-850 WINDS SHOULD
TURN SE THIS AFTN PROVIDING A DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
GIVEN ALL THIS MAY HAVE TO BUMP TEMPS IN SOME OF OUR ZONES. WILL WAIT
TIL AFTER 15Z OBS TO MAKE A DECISION ON HIGHS AND AFTER BASING IT ON
FWC TRENDS.
CALL WITH ANY COMMENTS.
.JKL...NONE.
WHP
FXUS71 KRLX 150827 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 1999
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS CLOUD COVER. AREA OF CU/AC OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN IS SLOWLY MOVING NNE. RUC FORECASTS INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT AREA TO MOVE IN OVER NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AC LOOKS PRETTY DENSE BUT STRONG MAY SUN SHOULD POKE
SOME HOLES IN IT...SO WILL GO BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS.
EXCEPTION WOULD BE EASTERN U.P. WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD DO.
NEXT QUESTION IS TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +10 SUPPORT 70S THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. HOWEVER...EAST WIND WILL KEEP ALPENA/OSCODA COOLER. ALSO
950MB WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15-20KTS...SO THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT LAKE
BREEZES COULD FORM TODAY ON WEST SIDE. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH
SYNOPTIC WINDS AS 950MB WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD BACK LAKE
BREEZE.
SHORTWAVE HELPING SHOWERS ON EAST SIDE OF STATE WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DPVA ENHANCING SLIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ONCE IT IS
GONE SPRINKLES SHOULD DISSIPATE.
.APX...NONE.
FARINA
FXUS63 KAPX 151306 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1040 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999
FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE TEMPS/CLOUDS/WIND.
IR LOOP INDICATED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACRS UPR MI WITH AC/CI WEST OF
UPR FROM NRN MN INTO SW WI. AS BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPR LVL RDG OVER
NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT BAND OF MID/HI
CLDS TO EDGE INTO WRN UPR MI PER 00Z RUC FCST 700-400 MB RH. PATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALSO MOVING TOWARD AREA FROM
LWR MI AND SRN LK MI. WL KEEP MENTION OF PARTLY CLDY INTO SRN UPR
MI GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS AND 00Z RUC 295K-300K FCST OF LOWER COND
PRES DEFICITS TOWARD AREA BTWN 06Z-12Z.
DEWPOINTS OVER AREA GENERALLY IN THE 30S...AT LEAST 10F HIGHER THAN
LAST NIGHT. COMBINATION OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE AND BNDRY LYR WIND TO
AROUND 15 KTS BETWEEN RECEDING SFC RDG OVER QUEBEC AND LO OVER HIGH
PLAINS WL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS ALLOWED WIND TO BECOME LIGHTER OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. WL MAINLY
FRESHEN WORDING WITH GOING FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 150206 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
BOW ECHO/MCS CONTINES TO SAG SOUTHEAST ALONG MID LVL THICKNESS LNS
IN MO...DISRUPTING LOW LVL RETURN FLOW. WIND PROFILER NETWORK
SHOWING ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS SLY FLOW ACRS KS/ERN NE AS MUCH STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FORCING FEEDING INTO MO CONVECTION. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
KEEPS LOW LEVELS FAIRLY MOIST THRU THE DAY WITH WK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. LAMP GUIDANCE OVC MOST AREAS AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY. WL
NEED TO LWR TEMPS SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS. MODIFIED KMPX SOUNDING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON DOES PRODUCE MARGINAL CAPE VALUES SO WL CONTINUE SML
POP IN ERN AREAS. BEST THREAT IN WRN CWA NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL JET STREAK
PUSHING ACRS CO. MOST LKLY RESPONSIBLE FOR APPARENT ACCAS INCRG OVR
SD/NE.
.MSP...NONE
KAVINSKY
FXUS63 KMPX 150904 mn
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1042 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SE AR THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK VORT MAX...AS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC DATA.
VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS N MS DURING THE DAY...BUT AIRMASS OVER NE MS
QUITE STABLE. UPDATED N AND W ZONES TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
26
FXUS74 KJAN 150734 ms
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
UPDATED FOR PRECIP TRENDS AND TEMPS
ALREADY SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZNS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP
ACRS THE FA. MCS CONTS TO DRIFT SEWD ACRS THE NWRN PART OF THE FA
ATTM. SOME MARGINAL SVR WEATHER REPORTS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE
CELLS. INCREASED POPS MOST AREAS BASED ON THESE TRENDS.
QUICK LOOK AT LATEST RUC DATA INDCD THAT MAIN UPR SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM SHLD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTN. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS IN MOST AREAS BY A CATEGORY. NO OTHER CHGS TO ZNS.
RICKARD
FXUS73 KLSX 150853 mo
MISSOURI STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
SLOW PROGRESSION OF UA PATTERN TO CONT THIS FCST PD AS UPR RDG CONTS
TO BLD ACRS MO INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND WHILE WRN U.S. TROF MOVS INTO
THE RCKIES. MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS ZN PCKG STILL REVOLVE ARND PCPN
THREAT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...MAIN PCPN THREAT IS WITH THE MCS OVR SE NB/NRN KS
AND ANY ASSOCD OUTFLOWS...HOWEVER SOME SCT TSRA HV RECENTLY DVLPD
ACRS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS RGN. RGNL 88D LOOPS...STLT AND LGTNG DATA
SHOW MCS IS HOLDING ITS OWN AND TRACKING ESE IN AGREEMENT WITH H85-30
THCKNS. MOST ACTV PORTION OF THE MCS IS ACRS NRN KS WHERE LLJ IS
PROVIDING STG LIFT ALG/NORTH OF ASSOCD OUTFLOW BNDRY. BIG QUESTION IS
TO WHAT DEGREE THIS SYS WL MAKE IT INTO LSX CWA. THE MOST ACTV SRN
PTN WL PROBABLY MAKE A MORE SE TURN OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DP CNVCTN MOVG INTO SE IA/NW MO. LATEST
RUC AND 00Z ETA CONT TO SHOW LLJ VEERING TO MORE SWLY DIRECTION THIS
MRNG AS WK IMPULSE TRACKS NE THRU IA...WHICH WUD PROVIDE FVRBL LOW
LVL FRCG TO CONT MVMNT/THREAT INTO AT LEAST MID MO. FURTHER EAST IT'S
A LTL MORE QUESTIONABLE BUT WL CONT WITH CURRENT LOW POPS. DEBRIS
CLOUD WL CERTAINLY IMPACT TMPS THIS MRNG....SPCLY DEPENDING HOW LONG
IT LINGERS INTO THE AFT AND IT'S OPAQUENESS. ATTM WL CONT WITH
CURRENT TMP TRENDS.
PRIND ARE THE THREAT OF PCPN TNGT IS BCMLY LESS LIKELY OVR PTNS OF
CWA. ORIENTATION OF THE CDFNT WHICH WL BE SLOW MOVG ACRS THE
PLAINS IS BCMG MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALF...WHICH SUGGESTS THE
SLOWER ETA/AVN FRNTL PSN IS MORE CORRECT. ALSO THE LL INFLO WL BCM
INCRSGLY OPPOSED TO THE MEAN CLD LYR WIND WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WL BE BACK BLDG AND MOST OF THE PCPN WL RMN IN A ZN ALG AND AHD OF
THE FNT (FM NE KS INTO WRN IA) WITH MINIMAL EWD MOVMNT AWAY FM THE
BNDRY. ATTM IT WUD APPEAR THE GREATEST PCPN THREAT TNGT IN THE STATE
WUD BE OVR NW SXNS...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THIS COORIDOOR. OVR THE
RMNDR OF THE AREA...LIFT VIA MID LVL WAA LATE THIS EVNG INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HRS MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENUF TO GENERATE WDLY SCT ELEVATED
-TSRA. CURRENT 30% POPS IN THE E/SE MO AND WRN IL ZNS PRBLY A LTL HI
BUT DON'T WANT TO DROP AND 20% TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 2ND PD.
FOR SUNDAY...THE PCPN THREAT DEPENDS ON WHICH MDL YOU BLV. THE NGM
HAS A NICE LTL VORT MAX IT TRACKS FM OLD MEX ACRS THE SRN PLAINS FM
24-36H THEN ACRS SW MO TO STL BY 48H...KICKING OUT A NICE BATCH OF
PCPN ALG WITH IT. AVN HAS SOME VERY WK REFLECTION OF THIS UPR
DISTURBANCE...BUT ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE. NO REFLECTION WAS EVIDENT IN
THE ETA. THE ETA GETS QUITE TOASTY WRMG THE LOW/MID LVLS AHD OF
THE FNT AND SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BE TO CAPPED FOR SFC BASED STRMS.
IF THE NGM PANS OUT...THE THREAT OF SCT MID LVL TSRA WL BE THERE.
CURRENT ZNS HV LOW POPS ALREADY MENTIONED AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
THINK IT'S PRUDENT TO KPG THEM GOING. WILL BUMP TMPS UPWARD FAVORING
THE WARMER GUID NUMBS AND ETA LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT OF ORGANIZED CNVCTN IN LSX CWA WL BE MON
NGT INTO TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF THE CDFNT.
.STL...NONE.
GLASS
FXUS63 KMCI 150801 mo
NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
930 AM MDT SAT MAY 15 1999
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ID. 00Z ETA HAS THIS
FEATURE TOO FAR SOUTH. 12Z RUC MORE IN LINE AND MOVES IT INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
SOUTHWEST SASK WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH THE LOWER
CLOUD COVER SPILLING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL SEE
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AS THE IDAHO WAVE MOVES NORTH...
HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM WILL REMAIN SCATTERED. WILL UPDATE ZONES
FOR CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. WATERHOUSE
GGW 346 060/043/058
GDV 445 059/043/060
FXUS65 KBYZ 150915 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 1999
VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID/UPPER LVL DEBRIS SLIDING NWD ACRS WRN
SXNS OF THE CWA ATTM. WATER VAPOR LOOP CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A S/W
TROF OVER LWR MI...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CLDNS. LATEST RUC
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS S/W FEATURE WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTN.
AS A RESULT...XPCT A CONTINUATION OF PATCHY CLDS FOR OUR WRN ZNS. WILL
OPT FOR P/SNY THESE AREAS AND DECIDED TO LWR MAX/S SLIGHTLY.
ELSEWHERE...CONDS SHUD REMAIN M/SNY WITH SIG MOIST FROM CUTOFF SYS NEAR
THE CAROLINAS STAYING TO OUR S. PREVIOUS FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON MAX
TEMPS...SO ONLY MADE SOME SUBTLE GROUPING CHGS BASED PRIMARILY ON YDY/S
COOP DATA AND MRNG RAOB INFO.
WRK ZNS OUT. FINAL RELEASE BEFORE 10 AM.
.BGM...NONE.
JUREWICZ
FXUS71 KBUF 151335 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED CWF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
954 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 1999
SFC LOW LOCATED OFF SE NC COAST THIS AM AND WON'T MOVE MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS IT BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH SLOW MOVING H5
CUTTOFF LOW. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO
CWA...AS VIS IMAGERY INDICATES NO BREAKS UPSTREAM. RADARS SHOW AN
AREA OF RAIN OVER NE NC N OF SFC LOW. THE SRN END OF THIS AREA HAS
HAD THE TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SO EXPECT ANY
RAIN THAT DOES MAKE IT THIS FAR S TODAY WILL BE PATCHY AND LIGHT.
ONGOING 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LOOK GOOD. WILL LIKELY
DROP MAX TEMPS BACK A CATEGORY OR MORE AS LITTLE IF ANY WARMUP IS
EXPECTED.
CWF...FPSN7 BLOWING 20-25 KTS WITH SEAS AROUND 6 FT. 09Z RUC
MAINTAINS 20 KT OVER WATERS TODAY WITH TIGHT PRES GRAD ALONG THE
COAST. KMHX VWP INDICATING 30-40 KTS THRU LOWEST FEW THOUSAND
FEET...WHICH IS 10 KTS OR SO HIGHER THAN RUC HAS PROJECTED AT 925
MB. HOWEVER WITH SURGE OF CAA ALREADY PAST...DON'T EXPECT THIS TO
MIX DOWN. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS/SEAS FOR
SC WATERS. GIVEN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY FROM CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER
INLET...WILL BREAK THIS GROUP OFF TO INCLUDE LOWER SEAS NEAR SHORE.
WILL RAISE SCA S OF LITTLE RIVER INLET FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.
.ILM...SCA FROM SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
MORGAN
FXUS72 KRAH 151345 COR nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
FCST CHALLENGES TODAY...TEMPS AND WILL ANY CONVECTION RE-FORM BY 00Z.
RATHER COMPLEX SFC/UPR AIR PATTERN THIS AFTN. SFC LOW IN SW MB WITH
TROF HAVING MOVED FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...NOW MOVING INTO THE
RRV. STRONG CLEARING TREND NOTED MOVING INTO THE GFK/FAR AREAS AS
WELL...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THE CLEARING TREND WILL START TO SLOW THE
REST OF THE DAY AND NW MN WILL REMAIN MSTLY CLDY.
OF NOTE IS DRYING OCCURRING IN THE SW FLOW OVER CNTRL INTO ERN ND THIS
MORNING WITH LOWERING DEW PTS INTO THE 40S AT JMS/DVL. 12Z RUC LOOKS
GOOD IN HAVING ERN ND UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR THIS AFTN WITH MN
UNDER DEEPER MOISTURE AND THETA-E RIDGE.
NEXT TRIGGER IS VORT MAX MOVING THRU WY. THIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN. QUESTION IS WHETHER ANYTHING WILL RE-DEVELOP IN
CWFA LATE THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM ABR/BIS AND
ETA MODEL SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE KEY TO GET HIGHER CAPES AND
INSTABILITIES. WITHOUT DEW PTS IN THE MID-UPR 50S NOT MUCH MAY HAPPEN.
DO EXPECT FLOW TO BACK SOME AND BRING HIGHER DEW PTS BACK INTO ERN ND
BUT THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN TIL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF 50H WAVE.
ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN IS IFFY BUT CANNOT
IGNORE POSSIBILITY. THUS WILL KEEP LOW MENTION LATE TODAY IN MOST
ZONES. MAY TWEEK ZONE TEMPS UPWARD SOME BASED ON SUN. HOWEVER...CU
RULES SHOW CU SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN PREVENTING FULL SUN TODAY.
UPDATE OUT BEFORE 11 AM.
.FGF...NONE.
RIDDLE
FXUS63 KBIS 150945 COR nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
A RATHER COMPLICATED MESOSCALE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DRYLINE HAS ALREADY MADE STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WITH 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWING DRY
AIR AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SEE NO REASON
WHY DRYLINE WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. RECENT RUC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT'S MCS NOW ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM
KANSAS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MAKE IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH IMPEDE ITS PROGRESS.
12Z 700 MB AND 500 MB ANALYSES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE OR NO MIDDLE OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...CAN'T QUITE RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPES...NEAR 5000...COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE BASED PARCELS TO RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. HOWEVER A STRONG CAP WILL EITHER PREVENT CONVECTION
ALTOGETHER OR LIMIT ITS COVERAGE.
WILL REMOVE POPS IN PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO PASSAGE OF
DRYLINE AND ADD POPS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE DRYLINE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO
RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST WHERE DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A MORE QUICK WARM-UP.
OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
JAMES
FXUS64 KTSA 151559 ok
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 1999
DISC: 13Z ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS WITH HI PRES
NOSING DOWN THE E SIDE OF MTS.
SATELLITE SHOWING LOTS OF CLOUDS ACRS ALL BUT THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING.
AREA OBS...MAINLY THOSE WITHOUT AN ASOS...SHOW SOME PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE CONTINUEING. WV AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPR LOW AND SFC SYS
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED. 00Z ETA STILL A BIT FAST IN MOVING SYS OFF TO
THE E COMPARED TO THE MORNING RUC RUN. RUC SHOWING MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WL REMAIN ACRS ERN NC AND THE PEE DEE THRU THE AFT. WITH SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME DRY AIR OVR NC PIEDMONT HEADING S AND SWD. WL GO WITH MSTLY
CLDY THRU A GOOD PART OF THE DAY WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY...THEN
SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE AFT. IF WE GET A LITTLE SUN BY AFT...MAX TEMPS
MAY BE OK...OTHERWISE TOO WARM.
.CAE...NONE.
LCV
FXUS72 KCAE 151417 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1005 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 1999
SAT PICS SHO LO CLDS ABUNDANT ACRS FA THIS MRNG. EVEN A FEW PATCHS
OF DZ ARND...THO APPEAR TO BE DWINDLING NOW. WTR VPR IMAGERY SHOWED
A WK LTL LOW PIVOTING SEWD OFF NE SC CST ARND 12Z...AND MAY HAV BEEN
ASSISSTED IN INCRG DZ CVRG. 12Z SNDGS SHO VRY SHALLOW CLR LYR AT
925MB WI PLNTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE. ? IS CAN THE SUN BREAK THRU AS WK H8
CAA AND MOIST LO LVL NE FLOW CONT.
LUKING AT MESOETA AND RUC...WUD APPEAR THAT BEST CH FOR ANY SUN WL BE
IN THE W AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHR DRIER AIR TRIES TO MIX DOWN
AND H8 TEMPS A LTL WRMR. LO LVL NE FLO WL NOT HELP THO AS LO CLDS
REACH NEWD TO VA WI FEW BREAKS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL PEEK
OF SUN ELSEWHERE...BUT IT WL BE LIMITED. WL NEED TO CUT BACK TEMPS A
CAT OR TWO. DRIER AIR APPEARS TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SFC
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH WINDS XPCTD TO HOLD UP...FOG SHUD NOT BE A BIG
CONCERN.
CWF...WEDGE CONTINUES TO SET UP OVER WATERS WITH A GOOD NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGHOUT AREA. EXPECT SOLID 20 KNOT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FEET TO PREVAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TIDE DEPARTURES...WHICH ARE STILL .5 TO NEAR 1.0 ABOVE
NORMAL. MWS WILL BE SENT LATER.
.CHS...
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANAH...EXCLUDING
CHS HARBOR.
SHALOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
SHALOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
WOODWORTH/JH
FXUS62 KGSP 151352 sc
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND THE CWA INDICATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY 930 AM. THE WIND STRENGTH
WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO WIND ADVISORY CRIT TODAY AS PGF WILL
NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATTER TODAY. SO WILL AMEND THE
MORNING ZONES TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF CAUTION ON AREA LAKES AND TO
INCREASE FORECAST WINDS A BIT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES
ATTM.
CURRENT VSBL IMAGES SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE REGION...AND
THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING.
CWF...THE BIG QUESTION OF THE DAY WILL BE HOW STRONG WILL THE
SURFACE WINDS GET ACROSS THE BAY AREA. THE LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS
WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE BY MIDDAY REACHING TO NEAR 25 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL AMEND
THE MORNING CWF TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THE BAY AREA ONLY...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SCA ATTM FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SYNOPTIC/MESO...60
.BRO...SCA FOR GMZ130 TODAY.
FXUS74 KFWD 151134 AMD tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING SCATTERED TROUGHS ACRS PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES...REFLECTIONS OF S/W ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ONGOING MCS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACRS MO SLIDING NICELY ALONG 15Z
RUC H85-H5 THICKNESS PATTERN AND MSAS SFC THTA-E GRADIENT. W/V LOOP
ALSO INDICATING THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH ON IT/S
SOUTHWEST FLANK...OCCURRING SOUTH OF WEAK VORT PUSHING ACRS EAST IA
ATTM. ETA DOING BETTER WITH PRECIP FIELDS ACRS MO INTO EAST IA AT 18Z.
65 DEGREE PLUS DPTS POOLING NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS...AS 12Z UA
ANALYSIS AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE A LITTLE HIGHER UP AT H85 A 40 KT
JET CONTINUING TO PUNCH TOWARD EAST KS AND WESTERN MO. INTERESTING
BUBBLE HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL MO NOTED ON TAIL END OF MCS. ASOS/AWOS
DATA AND CALL-INS REPORTING SOME DECENT GRADIENT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ACRS EXTRM SOUTHEAST IA /38 KTS AT OTM/ BEHIND EASTWARD PROGRESSING
PRECIP. MAYBE SOME WAKE DEPRESSION TYPE INFLUENCES GOING ON.
AS ORIGINAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH OF DVN CWA...CHALLENGE
AGAIN TONIGHT IS TO WHERE UPSTREAM/OUT WEST NEXT COMPLEX WILL BLOW AND
TRANSLATE TO...AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT DVN CWA.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SIMILAR WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH 48
HRS...WITH NGM TYPICALLY GROWING DEEPER WITH HGHT AND PRESSURE FIELDS
AS RUN PROGRESSES. AVN/ETA MORE SIMILAR LATER IN PERIOD...WITH AVN
SEEMINGLY AGAIN THE BEST ALL AROUND CHOICE AFTER 24 HRS. ETA A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC DPTS TO THE NORTH...AND TOO FAR EAST WITH 70 DPT
POOL ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT DOING BETTER THAN YESTERDAY/S
RUNS. IN ANY CASE...SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER PLAINS AND
BUILD ACRS UPPER MIDWEST AS L/W TROUGH OUT WEST STARTS TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NGM MOST
AMPLIFIED AND STRONGEST WITH L/W AND ASSOCIATED VORTS. AVN JUST A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS PROCESS THAN ETA AND NGM...AND PREFER SLOWEST MODEL IN
THIS CASE...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING REX BLOCK ACRS EAST COAST. ALSO FEEL
AVN/S GENERAL VORT PATTERN IN H5 SOUTHWEST FLOW BEST WITH WAVES
DAMPENING AS THEY RIDE INTO UPPER RIDGE. FEEL ETA TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
MAIN VORT EJECTING OUT WITH L/W TROUGH ACRS EAST IA SUNDAY NIGHT. AVN
AND NGM SLOWER AND PREFERRED...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAKER AVN SOLUTION
PROGRESSING OVER EAST IA MONDAY. SFC LOW ALSO TO PULL UP OVER EAST IA...
AND MAY BE A DECENT SVR WX THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR MCS INITIATION TONIGHT...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF ETA/NGM PARAMETER
SOLUTIONS. IT APPEARS BEST H85 THTA-E ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE OVR THE
TRI-STATE OF NE/KS/MO BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT. NGM PLACES H85 THTA-E
RIDGE NOSE/GRADIENT INTO SOUTHEAST NE...WITH ETA FURTHER WEST. NGM/S
INITIAL INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP OVER EAST KS...WITH ETA POINTING AT
WEST NE INTO KS. NGM ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ITS DIFFLUENCE OF THE H85-
H3 MB THICKNESS FIELDS OVER THE MID PLAINS...WITH ETA A MORE WEST-TO-
EAST ORIENTATION. THESE PARAMETERS TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IA AND
NORTHWEST MO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. TAKING MODEL NORTHERN BIAS WITH
THESE PARAMETERS...NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST SPAWNING GROUNDS RIGHT NOW...WITH A GENERAL EASTWARD
TRANSLATION. 40KT PLUS LLJ ALSO TO FEED ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY IN ITS
DECAYING STAGES/HOPEFULLY/ SHOULD REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA BY LATE
TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE STATED...WILL HAVE TO TAKE WAA
PRECIP INTO ACCOUNT AHEAD OF MAIN ACTIVITY ACRS EAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL. AFTER ALL THIS...I COULD ALSO SEE WEST NE AND SD LIGHTING UP TONIGHT
AS AREA RECEIVING DESTABILIZING INSOLATION...ALONG WITH PROGGED STRONG
H85-H7 UVV/S TONIGHT. BEST H85-H5 QG FORCING ALSO NOTED OVER WESTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AS AREA UNDER S/W INFLUENCE.
.EXTENDED...
MRF AND NOGAPS END PRECIP ON TUES WITH A BIT OF A BREAK IN MID WEEK AS
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS TOWARD US/CANADIAN BORDER. UPPER
RIDGE ALSO TO HAVE AFFECT ON MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK. MAY REMOVE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WILL GO DRY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH NAVY NOGAPS BRINGS IN
PRECIP LATE THURSDAY WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W. FMR TEMPS MAY BE A
BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS AREA UNDER LOW-LEVEL CAA.
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
HLADIK
FXUS63 KDVN 150830 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT (318 PM CDT) SAT MAY 15 1999
...FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE POPS TONIGHT AND HIGHS SUN...
WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN HYS/GBD WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG KS/NE
BORDER. LARGE SC CLOUD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. DEW
POINT VALUES ABOVE 60 IN ERN ZONES AS DRYLINE RUNS ALONG KS/CO
BORDER. DYNAMICS SETTING UP OVER SERN WY AS JET AXIS ENTERS AREA AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES.
AVN/ETA IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS THE RUC. NGM SEEMS TO BE
THE ODD ONE OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LONG TERM AS IT IS TOO DEEP AND
FAST ON BRINGING IN THE NEXT SYSTEM.
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS COMBINED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION OVER EXTREME ERN ZONES.
WILL GO WITH WDLY SCT POPS IN THIS AREA FOR ABOVE REASONS AS WELL AS
THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING OF SC. ISOLD POPS OVER THE
REST OF WRN KS/SWRN NE AS MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...BUT CAP SHOULD HOLD.
WILL NOT MENTION POPS IN CO ZONES DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY AIR WORKING
IT/S WAY IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND WILL GO A CAT
BELOW FWC DUE TO COLD AIR ABOVE SFC. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD FORM AGAIN
TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PUSHES BACK WEST.
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND FOG
LINGERS IN THE MORNING. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FWC AND CLOSER TO
FAN NUMBERS DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT NW AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. SCT THUNDERSTORMS FOR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING SUBSIDENCE WORKS IT/S WAY WEST TO
EAST...ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ON TUE AND WED
AS HIGH SETS UP...BUT THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA.
.GLD...NONE.
MLC
FXUS63 KTOP 152011 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES ALL PDS
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACRS THE FA. REMNANTS OF MCS CONTS TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. MAIN ACTIVITY HAS NOW FOCUSED ITSELF
ACRS S-CNTRL MO WHERE SEVERAL BNDRYS HAVE INTERSECTED TO CAUSE
FURTHER TSRA DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC DATA INDCS ASSOCD SHRT WV WL
CONT TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AFTER A BRIEF LOOK AT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA...APPEARS THAT THE
ETA AND AVN SOLUTIONS ARE THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS FCST. UPR FLOW
EXPECTED TO RMN FM THE SW DURING THE PD. SEVERAL WK SHRT WVS ARE
PROGGED TO PASS ACRS THE AREA THRU MON...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SCTD
CONVECTION IN THE FCST.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDCS SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SWRN KS. WARM FNT
EXTENDS INTO NRN OK AND BACK INTO NRN AR. THIS BNDRY IS FCST TO MOVE
SLOLY NWD TNGT AND INTO SUN. STILL COULD SEE ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOP
LATER TNGT ALONG WARM FNT...THUS WL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR MOST
AREAS. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO FIRE ACRS THE CNTRL
PLAINS TNGT. THICKNESS PROGS INDC THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHLD
RMN TO OUR NORTH.
COLD FNT EXPECTED TO APCH THE WRN FA SUN NGT INTO MON. THIS WL
PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR FURTHER SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
THAT TIME. WL PLACE HIGHEST POPS SUN NGT AND MON IN WRN AREAS...
CLOSER TO FNTL BNDRY AND BETTER UPR SUPPORT.
CLDS AND PRECIP WL CONT TO PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS THE NEXT 48 HRS.
BOTH NGM AND AVN MOS OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE ALL PDS AND WL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR THEM.
STL...WORK ZNS WL BE SENT AROUND 315 PM.
CCF: (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)
SGF BE 062/081 064/079 056 092334
JLN BT 064/084 066/078 055 092345
UNO BE 063/082 065/081 059 093334
VIH BE 060/081 063/079 056 093334
RICKARD
FXUS63 KSGF 151611 AMD mo
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999
POPS RMN THE QN OF THE FP AS WITH SHRTWVS EJECTING ONTO THE PLNS
FM PAC NW TROF. MID LVL TROF PROGD TO MOV EWD DURING PDS 3 AND 4
WITH A CPL PCPN FREE DAYS TWD MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...LLVL MSTR ALREADY
IN PLACE FOR ACTION WITH 850 DPS IN THE TEENS OVR SRN HALF OF KS. ST
DECK OVR CWA TDA KPG AREA STABLE ONCE AGAIN. WARM FRONT AT MID AFTN
JUST N OF NEB/KS STATE LINE WITH LAPS IND MSTR CNVGNC AND NEG LI OVR
KS CNTIES OF CWA...BNDRY EVIDENT IN THIS AREA ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...
MAYBE OUTFLOW FM LAST NGTS MCS MOVG NWD BEHIND WARM FNT.
LKG FOR TSRA AGAIN TO FORM OVR NWRN NEB WITH AREA OF MSTR CNVGNC AND
INCRSG 200 MB DVRGNC AS PER ETA/NGM. EXPECTING ANOTHER MCS TYPE
EVENT WITH 30 TO 35 KT LLVL JET REDEVELOPING AND UPR SPPRT FM ANOTHER
VORT LOBE WHICH 18Z RUC POINTS AT CNTRL NEB. THICKNESS AND
PROPAGATION VECTORS IND TSTMS WL TRACK ESEWD AGAIN LIKE LAST NGT.
AM ALSO WATCHING KS CNTIES CLOSLY AS THAT AREA HAS DESTABILIZED IN
LTD SUNSHINE TO LAPS IND -6 LI/CAPE NR 3000 WITH THE LTD SUNSHINE.
MAY SEE INITIATION THERE ALSO IF CAP CAN BE ERODED A BIT FURTHER. WL
WORD LIKELY TSTMS LTR TNGT FOR MOST OF CWA...BEST CHC NRN COUNTIES
WHERE WARM FNT WL WIND UP...BUT WL NOT DIFFERENTIATE FOR KS AND SERN
COUNTIES WITH ABOVE MENTIONED VARIABLES.
SUN...CDFNT MOVS SLOWLY THRU CWA...ORIENTED NE TO SW BY AFTN. ETA AND
NGM ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OMEGA FIELD IN ADVN OF THE MID LVL
TROF...WL KP GOOD CHC TSRA OVR SERN HALF OF CWA...TAPERING THE CHCS
OFF TO THE NW.
700 TMP ADVCTN/850 MSTR CNVGNC SOLUTIONS FM ETA/NGM SUGGEST BEST
CHC FOR TSRA ON SUN NGT ALNG KS/NEB STATE LINE AND WL HIT THAT
AREA HARDER WITH THE POPS WITH PROGD PRESENCE OF FNT AND MID LVL
TROF. WL WORD TO END POPS ON MON AFTN FOR NOW AS CWA COMES UNDR
SBCDNC SIDE OF TROF.
.GID...NONE.
09
FXUS63 KOAX 151923 ne