AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
910 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED OVER GEORGIA AND ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN FL...
MOVING SOUTHWEST. PLAN AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. THE RUC
INDICATES THE MID/UPPER INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST OF FLA BROADENS
AND MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR HIGHER
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA TOMORROW.
TRABERT
FXUS72 KMFL 020106 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1028 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
CURRENTLY...RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND OFF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEATURE MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH RUC 09Z RUN INDICATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO DROP POPS
TO A CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AND GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY.
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.
BLS
FXUS62 KTBW 011352 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ATLANTIC AND NEAR THE COAST. SOME BREAKS
NOTED NORTH AND INTERIOR. CAPE CANAVERAL PROFILER SHOWING SURFACE
TO 10 THOUSAND FEET SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DUE TO BROAD LOW LEVEL
RIDGE THAT WAS BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH. 10Z CAPE SOUNDING HAD AROUND
2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER.
TODAY...LATEST RUC SHOWED WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LIMITED
BY CLOUDINESS. FIGURE THAT INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
THE MOST HEATING SO HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK GOOD. FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS...THE EVOLUTION OF THE GRADIENT FLOW TO SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
HEATING SHOULD ESTABLISH ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. DO NOT SEE ANYTHING MAJOR THAT WILL NEED
UPDATING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
MARINE...CONVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS WAS DISTURBING LOW LEVEL
FLOW BUT RUC MODEL SHOWS 10 TO 15 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE DAY.
MAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS THIS.
LITTLE CHANGE.
.MLB...NONE.
LASCODY
FXUS62 KEYW 011329 fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST THU JUL 1 1999
FAIRLY INTERESTING FORECAST THIS MORNING. MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE
FORECAST IS THE RAIN TODAY. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS A WARM
FRONT THAT IS IN SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF VORT WAS
MOVING TO THE NE NORTH OF THE FRONT. EARLY THIS MORNING A COMA AREA
OF RAIN WAS ACROSS INDIANA. MAIN PROBLEM IS WORDING OF THE RAIN
EVENT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. WHILE SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
MOVING THROUGH INDIANA THIS MORNING THERE IS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO
THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE PICTURES DO SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA NEAR STL.
BIG QUESTION IS WHILL THIS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN THIS
AREA.
RUC HAS VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA. IT MOVES THIS PVA NE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEATURES MOVING EAST. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
DEVELPMENT IN CENTRAL IL. FOR CENTRAL IN THIS MORNING WILL GO WITH
FWC 70 PCT POPS. THE RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING SO
WILL GO UNQUALIFIED THERE.
NVA ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GIVE A BREAK IN THE PCPN. ANOTHER
S/W MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHC
OF RAIN IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WITH THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH HOW WARM WILL IT GET. WILL GO SAME CATAGORY
AS FWC TEMPS BUT VERIFICATION TEMP ABOUT A DEGREE HIGHER. AIR IS
FAIRLY WARM MOVING IN.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO INDIANA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE RAIN DURING THE EVE IN THE CENTRAL SECT AND BY
MIDNIGHT N. WILL GO CLOSE TO FWC TEMPS.
THE WARM OR SHOULD I SAY HOT UP WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO NEAR FWC READINGS.
.IND...NONE.
HAINES
FXUS63 KIWX 010818 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
935 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
A RATHER TRICKY FCST SITUATION THIS EVENING. LOOKS KIND OF LIKE A
DARNED IF YOU DO AND DARNED IF YOU DONT AS FAR AS UPDATING THE ZONES IS
CONCERNED. MCS OVER AR/MO QUICKLY DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REFORMED JUST AS QUICKLY OVER S IL-S IN AND INTO PARTS OF OHIO.
LATEST SAT PIXS...COMPOSITE RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LIGHTING IS DECR AND TOPS WARMING TO OUR NW AND N BUT NOW CONVECTION IS
REDEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER W KY. CWA IS PRETTY MUCH PCPN FREE RIGHT NOW.
WITH SUCH RAPID CONVECTIVE CHANGES AND RATHER FAST ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS...AM RELUCTANT TO LOWER POPS TOO MUCH TONIGHT. ALSO...LATEST
MESO-ETA/RUC AND THE 12Z ETA ALL INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST SOME PCPN TNGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THICKNESS FIELDS ARE ALSO
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. WILL
DROP THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING THOUGH. WILL RE-ADJUST THE ZONE BREAK UP
ALSO AND TWEAK THE POPS. THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHC FOR ANY DECENT
PCPN WILL BE OVER THE W 1/2 OF THE CWA AND THE LEAST CHANCE OVER THE
FAR E.
.JKL...NONE.
HALL
FXUS63 KJKL 012040 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
MESOSCALE FORECAST PROBLEMS GALORE FOR THE NEXT 24HR. MCV OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS AFTN MOVING QUICKLY EAST AT 40KT.
ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUALLY WARMING TOPS...WOULD
STILL EXPECT PERIOD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SRN 2/3 OF CWA LATE THIS
AFTN/ERLY EVENING. OTHER SCT TSRA OVER SIL/SWIN CLOSER TO SFC BNDRY
JUST NORTH OF FA. USING RUC/MM5 MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM. H8-H3 SHEAR VECTORS TAKE MCV MAINLY EAST
ACROSS FA EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BREAK FIRST PERIOD INTO 2 PARTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING FFA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MESOSCALE
FEATURE...SHOULD PUT AN END TO MOST THE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
STRONGEST UPR LEVEL WIND FIELDS PULL NORTH ON FRI AS MODELS PAINT
BUILDING H7-H5 RIDGE ACROSS TN/OH VLY. EVEN SO...H7 WAA IS SLOWER
TO RESPOND WITH +10 TEMPS STILL MAINLY WEST OF FA. WITH MANY
LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BOUNDARYS ACROSS AREA...A WEAK H8 THETA-E RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE AND AFTN CAPES AOA 2500 J/KG...WILL PUT LOW POPS
ACROSS AREA ON FRI. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FINALLY BECOME MORE CAPPED FRI NIGHT INTO
GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.
.PAH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SEMO/SIL/WKY/SWIN THIS EVENING
KEYSOR
FXUS63 KLMK 011926 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
325 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
30-40 KT LLJ CONTS TO FUNNEL HIGHER LOW LVL MOIST TWD THE OH RVR AT
MID AFTN...AHD OF MO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MOIST WAS THEN BEING WRUNG
OUT ACRS S-CNTRL IND -- AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY UP IN CNTRL IND. RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR SO FAR. WITH LLJ GRDLY SHFTG E
THIS EVNG ... AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF JET-LET ACRS NRN
IND...PLUS SRN EDGE OF WLY'S -- THINK POTENTIAL FOR LCL HVY RAIN TO
CONT INTO THE EVNG -- BUT SLIPPING INTO KY. WILL KEEP FFA GOING FOR
AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER WATCH -- SINCE FFG VALUES LOW FROM HEAVY RAIN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE ETA/RUC VERY SIMILIAR IN TAKING MCV OUT OF SRN MO ACRS SRN
KY THIS EVNG. WITH RICH ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE -- WUD THINK NEW TSTMS
WILL GO UP THERE AS WELL. CONVECTION FM MCV SHUD THEN SLIP MNLY S OF
KY LTR TNGT.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. WE PLAN TO KEEP SML POP GOING...MNLY FOR AIRMASS
VARIETY...ON FRIDAY. TEMPS SHUD CREEP UP ON FRIDAY WITH A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE...AND HIGHER THERMAL PTN INDICATED PER GUIDE.
HAVE OPTED FOR AVN/ETA SOLUTION ON SAT...AS RDGG AND CAPPING
BUILDING INTO THE LOWR OH VLY. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND
ALLOW HEAT AND HUMIDITY LVLS TO BUILD.
HAVE RAISED TEMPS OVR FWC GUIDE FOR SATURDAY.
.SDF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
STUREY
FXUS63 KLMK 011924 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
900 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
...MA NATURE MUST BE FIRING UP THE BIG GRILL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE WE ARE GETTING READY TO FRY...
WITH STG TROF DVLPG IN THE NW U.S. A VERY STG UPR LVL RDG WL BUILD
OVR THE ERN AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT
...ALL THE MDLS BLD 500MB HGTS TO 594DM BY SAT MORNING FROM THE
MISS VLY TO THE APPALACHIANS. THE AVN/MRF BLDS THE RDG EVEN MORE
WITH HGTS TO 598DM SUN MORNING OVR OUR AREA. 500 MB HGHTS DON'T
REACH THOSE LVLS IN THIS AREA THAT OFTEN.
DURING SAT AND SUN...S FLOW WL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND
AND PRECIP H20S WL REMAIN HIGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
HEAT WL MAKE HEAT INDICES CLIMB SUBSTANTIALLY. AS THE UPR LVL RDG
BUILDS AND IS CENTERED ON TOP OF US OR JUST TO THE W MON/TUE TIME
FRAME...THE SFC WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME MORE SW THEN W THEN NW.
THIS WOULD LOWER DWPTS A BIT THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING...BUT THE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN TEMPS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE
DANGER ZONE. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND...THE HUMIDITY WL BE THE
BIGGER CULPRIT IN CONTRIBUTING TO THE HEAT INDEX...THEN EARLY NXT
WEEK THE PROBLEM IS GOING TO SHIFT TO PLAIN OLD INTENSE HEAT. WHAT
LTL HUMIDITY WE DO HAVE TO MAKE THINGS THAT MUCH WORSE. ON OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE EXTREMELY WARM MID LVLS AND HIGH HGTS WL PUT ONE
BIG MONSTER CAP OVR THE AREA BEGINNING SUN CONT AT LEAST INTO TUE.
THUS...10% OR LESS POPS.
A COUPLE MORE SHRTWVS TO DEAL WITH BEFORE HGHTS START CRANKING UP.
WEAK SHRTWV WILL PASS NE OF THE AREA BY 06Z OVRNGT. THIS FEATURE
SEEMED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EARLY EVE. AS
WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING...AND VORT MAX PASSES TO OUR NE PUTTING
US IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL FADE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z ETA AND RUC. ACTIVITY ALREADY ON THE WANE ON
88D. WILL REMOVE POPS MTN AREAS FOR OVRNGT AND KEEP A 20 POP UNTIL
MIDNGT E OF MTNS. WL USE MUGGY RATHER THAN HUMID BECAUSE MUGGY SOUNDS
METEOROLOGICALLY NASTIER AND THAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO BE...ESP IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PCPN. WINDS REALLY SHOT UP OVR THE BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THEM TO SUBSIDE A BIT LATER TNGT. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE STILL QUITE STG AT SMITH POINT BUOY AND MID BAY BUOY...ESP
GUSTS...SO SCA WL BE HOISTED S OF SANDY POINT. GARP PROBLEMS DVLPD ONCE
THE SOO HIT THE ROAD FOR THE BEACH...SO 12Z 4KM RAMS MDL NOT AVBL.
APPARENTLY ITS ON THE INTERNET BUT THE MAPS ARE SO SMALL THAT IT IS
HARD TO INTERPRET THE WIND DATA WITH ANY PRECISION.
NXT SHRTWV INDICATED BY THE 12Z MDLS AND THE 18Z ETA MOVES THRU THE
AREA FRI AFT. PRECIP H20 IS STILL QUITE HIGH AND TEMPS WL CLIMB A
LTL HIER WHICH WL AID IN INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SEE THE POTENTIAL
LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA RATHER
THAN JUST -SHRA.
SHRTWV MVS NE OF THE AREA BY EVE. IN ADDITION...MDLS ARE SHOWING
LWRG PCPN H20 VALUES RIGHT AROUND 00Z...HGTS BEGIN TO BLD AND THERE
IS WARMING ALOFT SO NO 3RD PD POPS. COULD SEE SOMETHING LINGER RIGHT
UP TIL 00Z BUT THAT FALLS INTO THE 2ND PD...NOT 3RD. MUGGY AGAIN.
MA NATURE'S HEAT PUMP WL BE RUNNING AT HIGH SPEED STARTING SUN CONT
INTO EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WK. COULD SEE SOME 100F DAYS.
HOTTEST DAYS APPR TO BE MON/TUE/WED. BY THU...STG UPR LVL RDG
RETROGRADES ENUF TO RESULT IN LWRING HGTS OVR THE NE STATES. THIS
MAY BRING SOME "LESS INSANE HEAT" INTO THE AREA...BUT I DEFINATELY
WOULD NOT USE THE TERM "COOLER".
BACK AT 7AM FOR MORE FUN AND FESTIVITIES.
.LWX...SMALL CRAFT ADVY CHES BAY S OF SANDY POINT
WALSTON
FXUS61 KLWX 011822 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
HAPPY JULY...ITS GOING TO FEEL LIKE IT VERY SOON. WILL BE ISSUING A
SPECIAL WX STATEMNT THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE FOR
THIS WEEKEND. MRF HAS BACKED OFF IT/S EARLIER SOLTN OF COOLER AIR
MOVING IN SUN NTE AND MON. IT NOW KEEPS THIS LOCKED UP TO OUR NORTH.
THE RESULT WILL BE HAZY HOT AND HUMID WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MED RNGE
MOS HAS MID-UPR 90S FOR DC AND BALTO SUN AND MON. GOOD WEEKEND TO BE IN
THE WATER BUSINESS.
AS FOR CURRENT GOINGS ON...SHWRS AND A ISOLATED TSTMS IN MUCH THE SAME
LOCATION I LEFT THEM YESTERDAY...IN LWR STHRN MD/ESTRN VA/AND THE
EASTERN SHORE. THEY ARE MOVING N ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BROUGHT COOLER AIR IN YESTERDAY. LATEST 09Z RUC HAS THIS HOLDING IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER S/W WILL COME IN FROM THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHULD DRAG THE OLD FRONT OUT TO SEA TNT...ALLOWING THE
WEEKEND RIDGE TO BUILD IN.
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS S AT 10 MPH FOR THIS AFTRN WITH
CLDY SKIES...PS IN THE ESTRN WV PANHNDLE. SHWRS FOR LOWR S MD...CHC
POPS FOR THE MIDDLE...AND SLGHT CHC FOR FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD GET
ABOUT 3-5 DEGRS WARMER THAN CURRNT READINGS.
.LWX...NONE.
STRONG
md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1050 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA THREAT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN GRT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING 850
MOISTURE PRODUCING TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 52. CAPES THOUGH GENERALLY
ONLY IN 300-700 J/KG RANGE. KMQT 88D INDICATED SHRA FADING LAST FEW
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONE ISOLD SHRA NEAR IMT SHOULD
ALSO FADE QUICKLY BY 04Z.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING AOB 800 MB PER RUC FCST SNDGS AND AREA
00Z SNDGS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING MID/UPR CLOUDS EXPECT AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GROW. KSAW ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM IN FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS LINGER AT KERY AND KCMX. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING MIN TEMP FCST ON TRACK.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 020227 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
CURRENT REGIONAL SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PULLING E OF GEORGIAN
BAY...WITH SECONDARY TROF OVER ERN UPR/NRN LWR MI AND SE WI.
SATELLITE LONGWAVE IR IMAGES SHOW THE BULK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CLOUDINESS WELL E OF THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED MID LVL CLOUDS LEFT
BEHIND. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN
UPR AND FAR NRN LWR. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN A FCST CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THREAT/EXTENT OF DRIZZLE/FOG GIVEN THE LACK
OF POST-FRONTAL DRYING.
KAPX 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN PULLING
E OF THE REGION ACROSS LAKE HURON...CONSISTENT TO WHERE REGION OF
COUPLING UPPER LEVEL JETS/AREA OF 850-500 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEP MOISTURE ARE MOVING ACCORDING TO LATEST (00Z) RUC. EVEN WITH
300 MB JET AXIS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WEAK LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING/1000-500 MB LAYER AVE MOISTURE TO STILL HANG ON ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NRN LWR. THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES REMAINING OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE/STRATUS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS SRN HALF
OF NRN LWR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM EARLIER FORECAST APPEARS ON TARGET FOR
MOST AREAS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN A FEW ZONES
BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.
UPDATED ZONES TO BE OUT BY 1045 PM.
HURLEY
FXUS63 KGRR 020138 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
305 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
...CHC POP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN WEATHER ACTION TIED TO SHTWV THAT IS EXITING SE LWR MI AROUND
18Z. TRAILING SHTWV MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE TSTMS THIS EVENING AS
RUC AND ETA DO SHOW SOME DPVA THIS EVENING/SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE/
PUSH POSSIBLE JET COUPLET BETWEEN NEXT JET SEGEMENT UPSTREAM. AFTER
THAT SHTWV PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM UPSTREAM AND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO DIVEGENCE BTWN
THE TWO SYSTEM. THIS WILL MEAN SINKING AIR AT MID LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ETA AND AVN SEEM BEST TODAY SINCE NGM PUTS TO MUCH ENERY INTO FIRST
500 CLOSED LOW. AVN AND ETA REDEVEOPE UPPER SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST
DUE TO STRENTH OF JET DIGGING INTO W COAST TROF. RETURNING WARM
FRONT WILL TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. DIFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN FRI NIGHT WOULD LEAD TO
POSSIBLITY OF MCS TRACKING SSE INTO SW LWR MI. HOWEVER... MOST OF
THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL WEST OF MICHIGAN ASSOC
WITH UPPER LOW AND JET WHICH BY FRI NIGHT WILL BE NRN MN. THICKNESS
DIFLUENCE WILL KEEP MOST OF PCPN IN WI/MN/UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW DWPT POOLING NEAR WARM FRONT OVER MN/NW
WI...THAT WILL HELP KEEP STORMS NEAR WARM FRONT.
ON SATURDAY... 700 MB TEMPS RISE TO 16C... AND 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO
LOW 20C... THUS EXPECT MOS FCST TO COOL SAT. WILL INCREASE HIGHS TO
NEAR 90 AND IT WILL BE VERY HUMID.
WDM
...EXTENDED...
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE UPR HIGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER OH/TN VALLEYS AND COMBINE WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SFC TO
TURN ON THE HEAT PUMP AS THE JET IS SHOVED NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A
CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL STRADDLE THE HOLIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE
CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE WRN LAKES. THIS IS
BASICALLY SUPPORTED BY THE OTHER MODELS TOO. AT THIS POINT I THINK
THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AS A RESULT OF THE NWD
MOVEMENT OF THE JET. AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU... THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE OUR WX ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MRF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/EUROPEAN SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY... SO WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE OF TSTMS THEN.
MRF TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND WILL STAY CLOSE.
.GRR...NONE.
WDM
FXUS63 KDTX 011904 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1050 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PM...
FAIRLY STRONG SHTWV AND ASSOC SFC LOW EXITING GRR CWA AS I WRITE
THIS. SFC LOW NEAR SBN AT 14Z WITH WARM FRNT NEAR MI BORDER. ALL
OF THIS AT NOSE OF 300 MB JET EXIT REGION. DURING THE AFTERNOON
THIS WILL MOVE EAST OF GRR CWA AND 15Z 88D SHOWS MAIN PCPN AREA
ALREADY EAST OF US-131. ARE OF THUNDESTORMS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF LANSING DURING PAST HOUR. EVEN SO... THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF ENTIRE CWA BY 1-2 PM.
MEANWHILE... YET ANOTHER SHTWV... SPINNING IN THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO OUR WEST IS HEADING TOWARD SW MI FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT. 12Z RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP AS IT MOVES
INTO SW MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF SECOND JET SPEED
MAX WITH DEPARTING SPEED MAX TO CREATE JET COUPLING. RUC SHOWS GOOD
700 TO 300 MB DPV AND SOME 850 MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. WHILE 850
TO SFC DWPTS WILL BE SOME WHAT DRIER OVER SW LWR MI THEN AHEAD OF
PRIMARY SYS... WHICH BY 00Z WILL BE EAST OF MI TOTALLY... SHOULD
ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABLITY TO REDEVELOPE THUNDERTSTORMS TOWARD EVENING.
WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SRN AND CNTL PART OF CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN INCOMING AND OUTGOING SYSTEM ALLOWS
BRIEF BRAKE IN CLOUDS. ENOUGH TO INCREASE INSTABLITY TOO.
BOTTOM LINE... TO MAKE IT SIMPLE WILL FORECAST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LET
NOWCASTS DEAL WITH DETAILS. HIGHS 75 TO 80 SOUTH... MID 70S NORTH.
.GRR...NONE.
WDM
mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
910 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN CWA WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT WEST OF CWA TOWARD DAWN.
21Z RUC INDICATED THAT WEAK FORCING TO REMAIN OVER CWA UNTIL ABOUT
06Z. RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED TSRA OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH ELONGATED VORTICITY ALONG 25H JET AXIS FROM
MONTANA/NODAK/CENTRAL MN. CONVECTION STILL GOING OVER SOUTHEAST
NODAK...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE POSSIBLE VORT CENTER
MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO SMALL POP IN THE
NORTH CWA. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY TO TALK ABOUT. 21Z
RUC/18Z ETA DID INITIATE CONVECTION SOUTHERN SODAK LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG 85H THETA-E ADVECTION/WAA DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET. DONT
BELIEVE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO FAR WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THOUGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.
.MSP...NONE
DWE
FXUS63 KMPX 012043 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1025 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
FIRST PERIOD CONCERNS CENTER ON PRECIP THREAT. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
KMPX DOPPLER RDAR SHOWING DIMINISHING -SHRA OVR ERN SD AS CLD TOPS
CONT TO WARM. SOME INCR IN LGTNG NOTED SOUTH OF FSD HOWEVER. SFC
ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FM LK WINNIPEG LOW PRES
TO SECOND WK LOW RES IN ERN SD. WND FLOW QUITE WEAK...WEAKER THAN WED.
WV SHOWING S/W CIRCULATION MOVING THRU ERN SD ON TRACK TO SLIDE
ACRS MN THIS AFTN. APPEARS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE. DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT UPSTREAM CIRCULATIONS BUT ANY SHOULD
WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE AHEAD OF DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN WEST. /110 METER HEIGHT FALLS NOTED ON 12Z ANALYSIS IN WA./
MSAS PROGRAM INDICATING LINGERING WK TROUGH OVR ERN MN ZONE FORECAST
AREA WITH DEWPTS NR 60. SFC BASED LIS HAVE DECREASED TO -4 AND
INTERACTIVE SKEW-T PROGRAM INDICATED CAPES INCREASIG TO OVR 500 FOR
A TIME WITH MINIMAL CIN. HENCE WL CONT SCT POPS IN ERN AREAS.
/
.MSP...NONE
KAVINSKY
FXUS63 KDLH 010932 mn
NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
846 PM MDT THU JUL 1 1999
UPDATE PLANNED.
STRONG ZONAL JET FROM EPAC THRU PAC NW TO NEMONT EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY AND FROM 90KT 250MB WIND ON GGW 0Z SOUNDING. WV IMAGERY
SUGGESTS TWO DISTINCT MAXIMA...ONE ALONG HI LINE FROM CUT BANK TO
GGW...OTHER OVER NW WA. 0Z RUC PICKS UP FIRST MAXIMA WITH SHORT
WAVE/VORT CNTR...JET STREAK ENTRANCE REGION...FCST TO TRACK NORTH OF
EAST ACROSS MT THRU VCNTY GGW OVERNIGHT. AREA OF WK CONVECTION OVER
NW MT APPEARS ASSOCIATED. THIS FEATURE DEPICTED AS STRONGER THAN
LEADING WAVE NOW OVER E MT...BUT DOUBT WILL BE AS MUCH CONVECTION
WITH TRAILING WAVE DUE TO NOCTURNAL PASSAGE. ATMOS LIKELY TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED...PLUS HAVE OBSERVED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS FOCI OF EVENING
CONVECTION WHICH MAY INTERACT WITH UPSTREAM FEATURE. UPDATE TO
FRESHEN WORDING IN ZONES PLUS PUT SCTD SHOWERS IN FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT
FIRST PD...ESP ALONG HI LINE...WHILE ALLOWING EVENING CONVECTION TO
DIE BEFORE/AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO ADJUST FIRST PD MINIMA TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS/HIER DEW PTS ALONG HI LINE WHILE S ZONES LOOK
OK. LATER PDS ALSO LOOK OK.
GGW 4321 050/071/048/070
GDV 2311 051/072/049/072
SECORA
FXUS65 KTFX 020225 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
950 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
THE ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS. 01/18Z ETA AND 02/00Z
RUC BOTH INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION INTO N
CNTRL NEB AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING THIS AXIS EWD INTO THE
NWRN ZONES TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED
DEEPER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL CONFINED TO SRN KS...OK AND TX
WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEB.
THEREFORE...AIRMASS ACROSS STATE WILL NEED TO DESTABILIZE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT THE NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS
DESTABILIZATION. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA
INDICATE THE ADVECTION OF A WARM NOSE IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER...WORKING INTO THE CWFA FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY INHIBITING
CONVECTION ACROSS SRN ZONES. UPSHOT IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NW...WITH THE LOWEST POPS IN THE SE.
TEMPERATUREWISE...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WEAK WINDS ACROSS THE N MAY SUPPORT
NEAR 60. FARTHER S...HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NRN KS COULD ADVECT
INTO THE AREA...SUPPORTING GOING TEMPERATURES.
.OMA...NONE
MEAD
FXUS63 KLBF 020133 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
831 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
WILL UPDATE ZONES AND REFOCUS HIGHER POPS FOR THE NCNTRL FOR TSTM
DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON. 18Z MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS AND NOW 21Z
RUC INDICATES GREATER THREAT FOR TSTM DEVELOP NE OF A LN FROM
MERRIMAN TO BROKEN BOW. AT 00Z HAND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED DRYLINE FROM
CNTRL WY S ACROSS ERN CO INTO NM. SEMI STNRY FRONT FM MT INTO NERN SD
ACROSS SRN MN.
2H DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER NCNTRL AS 7H WAA INCREASES WITH
WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE SD/NEB STATELINE BY MIDNIGHT. 850-700
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE GREATEST NE OF THIS LINE AS 8H SLY
JET KICKS IN TO 30 KTS BY 03Z TO 50 KTS BY MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE WRN
FA WILL LOWER POPS TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED
DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH 3.6 DEGREE CAP PRESENTLY AND CONSIDERING DEGREE
OF WAA AT 7H CAP TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. SFC WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SSE ACROSS THE W AND PROGGED TO
SHIFT ACROSS THE NCNTRL BY 03Z.
.LBF...NONE
TLK
FXUS63 KOAX 011953 ne
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
845 PM PDT THU JUL 1 1999
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THETA E RIDGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NV APPEARS TO BE DYING OFF
NOW. 00Z MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE RUC...DEPICTS AREA OF PVA ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN AND CENTRAL NV THIS EVENING AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
APPROACHING TROF. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AS FORECAST. EVENING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS WELL. WILL NEED TO UPDATE TO
CLEAN UP WIND WORDING AND REMOVE EVENING POPS FROM WHITE PINE
COUNTY. FAUCETTE
.EKO...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 012156 nv
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
317 AM PDT THU JUL 1 1999
SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS. THE RECENT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY BEFORE LOWERING A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY AS FIRST IN SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EASTERN PACIFIC-SOUTHWEST
U.S. ANTICYCLONE STILL VERY STRONG TODAY...HOWEVER...AND SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY. THERE IS A
VERY WEAK SHEAR VORTICITY LOBE NEARING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THAT ETA/RUC MOVE GRADUALLY TO SOUTHERN NEVADA IN NEXT 24 HOURS; THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT MORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH WINDS
UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GOING ZONE FORECAST
ALREADY INDICATED. 30 METER HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS BY FRIDAY SHOULD
CORRESPOND ROUGHLY TO 3 DEGREES LOWER TEMPERATURES ALL AREAS. ALMOST
NO CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS.
STRONGER LOW IS STILL SLATED TO APPROACH PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO SERIOUS HEIGHT FALLS AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG FOR
SUMMER SURFACE LOW ACROSS GREAT BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY; UNCERTAIN IF
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS SATURDAY...SO
CONTINUED "LOCAL WINDY" TERMINOLOGY ADEQUATE. MRF SUGGESTING SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY REASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BY THEN. BIGGEST NEWS ON THE HORIZON IS INTENSIFICATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOWN BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND...IF
MRF IS CORRECT...SPREAD SOME DEGREE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY; AND
TONS OF MOISTURE HAVE BEEN LURKING DURING RECENT DAYS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SONORA. MAC
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 010948 nv
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
400 AM MDT THU JUL 1 999
************* SERVICE CHANGE JUL 15 1999 *****************
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION BECOMES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
AFOS ID ABQSFDABQ ABQAFDABQ
WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID FXUS74 KABQ FXUS64 KABQ
EFFECTIVE 1000 AM MDT JULY 15 1999...
ABQSFDABQ WILL BE DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED BY ABQAFDABQ.
ABQAFDABQ WILL APPLY ONLY TO NEW MEXICO ZONES 1-21 AND 26.
**********************************************************
MDLS AGREE THAT WK TROF ALF WILL DVLP TO OUR WEST BY FRI WITH UPR
RDG CNTRL/ERN NM EWD...THUS OPENING DOOR TO SUBTRPCL MOISTR OVR OLD
MEXICO. DETAILS OF CONCERN IN THE EAST...MAY BE TOO STBL SPCLY IN SE
FOR CNVCTN THIS AFTN...THO TSTMS DID FIRE JUST ACRS BDR IN MAF/S
TERRITORY. AVN PLACES SFC LOW OVR SE NM THIS AFTN...AND RUC SUGGESTS
BNDRY FROM MCS OVR KS TNGT WL BE LOCATED ALG NE BORDER 18Z TDA. NOT
SURE HOW FAR S BNDRY WL GET...BUT WNDS NLY AT RTN AND APPEAR READY
TO SHIFT TO NLY AT CAO ATTM. AGAIN MAY BE CAPPED BUT WILL MENTION
SMALL POPS OVR MUCH OF NE AND ECNTRL. NEW MRF SUGGESTS CHC POPS OVR
JULY FOURTH WEEKEND WITH SLGT COOLING IN DAYTIME TEMPS.
.ABQ...NONE
nm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 AM EDT THU JUL 01 1999
MRNG SAT PIX SHOW LOW CLD MASS ENVELOPING ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE
FA ATTM...WITH ITS LEADING EDGE HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE
FINGER LKS RGN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG RIDING UP
THRU SE PA/NJ IN THE DEEPER MOIST AND SUPPORTED BY WK S/WV AXIS. ALTHO
INCRG LL JET SHUD ADVECT THIS TROP MOIST NWD AND INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTN...UL SUPPORT SHUD STAY MAINLY ABT WHERE IT IS NOW ALG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THIS SCENARIO SHUD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SE OF THE RGN
THIS AFTN...BUT STILL FEEL BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN LO CHC
POPS FROM NE PA UP THRU THE SUSQ RGN/CATSK WITH WARM FRNT IN THE VCNTY
AND DECENT THETA ADVCTN OVERRIDING THE BNDRY. A FAIR AMT OF CLDS SHUD
KEEP TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S THESE AREAS.
FURTHER N/W...CLD/TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKIER. AS MENTIONED ERLYR...CLD
MASS TO THE SE HASN/T MADE MUCH INROADS INTO THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VLY
ZNS SO FAR. LL RH AND QVEC PROGS FROM THE ETA/RUC INDICATE THAT THIS
TREND MAY CONT TO PLAY ITSELF OUT THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...CLDS/PCPN
WITH LWR GRT LKS S/WV ARE PROGGED TO MOVE NE AND MISS THE AREA THIS
AFTN. CERTAINLY ENUF HTG/MOIST FOR SCT-BKN CU TO POP...THO. DECIDED
TO PLAY IT AS P/SNY FOR THE AFTN IN THE FINGER LKS WITH POPS DECREASED
TO LO CHC VALUES. WENT SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR THE CLDS IN THE
WRN MOHAWK VLY BUT STILL LWRD THE POPS.
MAX TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A BIT NWRN SXNS WITH MORE SUN XPCTD.
OTHWS...HI TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.
.BGM...NONE.
JUREWICZ
FXUS61 KALY 010826 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
925 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
LITTLE ACTVTY OVER CWA THIS EVE AS IN SUBSIDENCE AREA BETWEEN SHORT
WVS TO W AND SE. THESE FEATURES PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC
AND WELL OFFSHORE TO SE...AND INITIALIZED WELL IN 18Z MESO-ETA. THIS
MODELS SHEARS OUT VORT OVER CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKENS WAVE TO
SE AS IT MOVES NW. ACTVTY OVER CENTRL NC WILL STAY W OF AREA AS IT
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS APPEARING 60-100
MILES OFF COAST COULD MAKE IT INLAND NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WEAKENING
WAVE COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACTVTY TOWARD MORNING. WILL KEEP 20
POPS ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH PT CLDY SKY COVER.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR FCST MINS IN MID 70S.
CWF: MSAS INDICATING SFC HI HAS NOSED IN TO AROUND HAT...RESULTING
IN SLACKENING OF PRES GRAD ALONG S COAST. BUOY AND COASTAL OBS
VERIFY THIS WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BLO 15 KTS AND SEAS BLO 6
FT...WHILE NRN SECTIONS STILL 20-25. MESO-ETA AND RUC INDICATE THIS
TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PER COORD WITH ILM...WILL DROP SCA S OF
OCRACOKE INLET.
.MHX...SCA OCRACOKE INLET N AND SOUNDS.
JBM
FXUS62 KILM 020119 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
920 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
DEEP SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HI PRES OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC SFC THRU 200 MB. KLTX VWP IS INDICATIVE OF THIS...SHOWING
10-20 KT SSW FLOW THRU 16 KFT. 21Z RUC SHOWS S/WV WHICH HELPED
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND EVENING WEAKENING AND RETROGRADING SW
OF THE CWA TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF H5 HI PRES OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. NEXT S/WV IS SHOWN BY THE RUC TO APPROACH AFTER 06Z
BUT APPEARS TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE FA.
RADAR RETURNS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT RAIN
IS UNLIKELY FOR US OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER AND BRING WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN TO AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE A 20 POP IN.
BASED ON 01Z TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AS CURRENTLY FCST.
CWF: AS NOTED BY MHX AND CHS IN COORD CALLS...SFC PRES GRAD HAS
RELAXED QUITE A BIT S OF CAPE HATTERAS. COASTAL OBS AND BUOY 41004
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. DON'T SEE ANY FEATURES IN
STORE OVERNIGHT THAT WOULD BRING US BACK UP TO SCA CONDITIONS SO
WILL DROP ADVISORY WITH UPDATE.
.ILM...NONE.
MORGAN
FXUS72 KRAH 020039 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
RUC-II MODEL SHOWING THAT DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST THRU
THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE. LATEST VSBL
SATPIX BEARS THIS OUT...SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES. WITH THIS EXTRA SUNSHINE...WILL NEED
TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UP JUST A HAIR THIS AFTERNOON. PTCLOUDY STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR SKY CONDITIONS WITH CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MORNING
SOUNDING PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONVECTION WITH
MODIFIED LI OF -7 AND CAPES AROUND 3200 J/KG. ONLY REAL TRIGGER WILL
LIKELY BE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SO 30 PCT POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
AND WILL LOWER POPS WHERE NEEDED.
COASTAL...WINDS CURRENT RUNNING A FEW KNOTS EITHER SIDE OF 20
KT...BUT LATEST RUC-II AND 00Z ETA 10-METER WINDS STILL SHOW
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WINDS UP TO NEAR 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TRENDS.
.MHX...SCA ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.
COLLINS
FXUS72 KRAH 011346 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT APPEARS TO AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...AS LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SOME THINNING OF
THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. UPPER AIR TONIGHT SHOWS
SOME DRYING AT 8H AND 00Z RUC ALSO SUPPORTS THIS. RUC ALSO
INDICATES SOME WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT AND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL
RATHER LOW FEEL THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
ZONES. WITH 40-80M HEIGHT RISES ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND RATHER WARM LOW AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE ALMOST NIL. WILL REMOVE POPS
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND MAY ADJUST CLOUD COVER.
.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
6
FXUS64 KTSA 020220 ok
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
920 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AS STATED. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS
FROM DDC..AMA..OUN HAVE ALL DEVELOPED SIGNIFICANT CAPS AND SHOULD
HELP INHIBIT CONVECTION AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH 850-500
MB THICKNESS WOULD INDICATE A MORE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.
CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR...BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING A WEST TO EAST EROSION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
00Z RUC MODEL SEEMS TO ANALYZE FOR THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHERE
THE CLOUDS ARE AT THIS TIME...AND FORECASTS THE CLEARING TO
CONTINUE...BUT SLOW DOWN BEFORE REACHING ALL OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SO WILL ADJUST CLOUD FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...OR CLEARING LATE.
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD...GIVEN THE HIGH DEW
POINTS... CLOUDS AND SOUTHELRY BREEZES.
FCSTID = 02
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KOUN 012037 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
FIRST SHORTWAVE OFF THE COAST EXPECTED TO SPIRAL TOWARDS THE CWA
LOOKS TO BE HEADING INTO HAT INSTEAD. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE WITH IT
A GOOD BIT OF OUR POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HRS. WILL NOT DISCOUNT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
OFF OF THE WATER LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY MORNING MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP IS DIMINISHING AS DAYTIME
HEATING FADES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT BEST. WILL
CONTINUE POPS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS. TEMP
FCST LOOKS REASONABLE BUT MAY TWEAK DOWN A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CWF...THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN QUITE A BIT LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH
41004/41008/FBIS1 ALL AT 10 KTS OR LESS CURRENTLY. WVS ALSO DOWN WI
3 TO 4 FT IN MOST SPOTS. LUKNG AT MESOETA/RUC ONLY FEATURE WORTH
NOTING IS WK VORT WELL E OF SC CSTL WATERS. WI PROGRSSN OF THE FTRE
GNRLLY TO THE N...DO NOT THNK IT WL HV BIG IMPACT ON CSTL WATERS OF
SC/GA. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT INCR IN WINDS DUE TO NOCTRNL JET THAT
NRLY ALWAYS FORMS OFF THE CST THS TIME OF YR...DO NOT THNK IT WL BE
ENUF TO PRODUCE SCA CONDS. MAY SEE ABT 15 KT OR 15 TO 20 KT
OVRNGT...BUT THNK IT WL ONLY RSLT IN 5 FT SEAS AT MOST. WITH
APPARENTLY NO OTHER FACTORS COMING INTO PLAY OVRNGT AND CRNT CONDS
BEING WHAT THEY ARE...REALLY LEFT WI NO OTHER CHOICE BUT TO DROP SCA
WI THIS ISSUANCE. AS MENT PREVSLY...WL KP WNDS ARND 15 KT AND WVS
ARND 4 FT.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SLF/WOODWORTH
FXUS62 KGSP 020106 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
905 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
RUC SHOWS AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DECREASING ACORSS PIEDMONT.
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO MOUNTAINS AT 06Z...THEN
INTO SC MIDLANDS BY 09Z. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
MOVES E OF AREA BY 03 Z BUT NEXT VORT TO APPROACH MOUNTAINS AFTER
06Z AND REACH TN BORDER AT 09Z. WITH ACTIVITY FIRING IN NE GA AND
WEAK ECHOES IN NC MOUNTAINS...WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS AREA. GSP RUNNING A
BIT WARM BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR. AVL DEW POINT SUGGESTS
WARMER NC MOUNTAIN MINIMUMS BUT THIS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AND MOST
OF MOUNTAINS COOLED TO MID 60S. WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES ALONE.
.GSP...NONE.
JAT
FXUS62 KCAE 020043 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
BEST TSTM CVRG THIS AFTERNOON ACRS NW NC...FORMING IN SFC MOISTURE
FLUX CONV AREA...AS PER LATEST LAPS DATA. 15Z RUC DATA KEEPS LLVL
THETA-E RIDGING ACRS WESTERN 1/2 OF CWFA THRU 03Z TONIGHT...SO EXPECT
BETTER CVRG HERE & WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TONIGHT.
THE TRANSITION TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE US THIS
PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED BUT SHORT RANGE MDL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
RESPECT TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLITUDE & STEERAGE OF S/WV FURTHER NORTH...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. THRU 18Z FRI...NGM DEPICTS
UPPER RIDGE TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH ONLY MINIMAL VORT ENERGY & OMEGA.
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AVN/ETA PATTERN IS A LITTLE FLATTER...WITH STGR OMEGA
& MORE VORT ENERGY RIPPLING EASTWARD INTO THE CWFA...PROBABLY THE RESULT
OF MCS REMNANTS.
EVEN THE LEAST AGRESSIVE NGM SOLUTION CRANKS OUT CHC POPS EACH PERIOD
THRU SATURDAY WITH PERSISTENT TEMP & LLVL RH PROFILE & FEEL THIS IS THE
MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN AMT OF CVRG WE HAVE HAD OVER PAST TWO
DAYS. MRF STILL ADVERTISES GREATER THAN 594+ DM 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
CWFA DAY 3-5 & ASSOCIATED CAP PROBABLY WILL BE QUITE STRONG. GIVEN
THIS...FEEL THAT DIURNAL TSTM CVRG WILL RANGE FROM JUST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED & PRIMARILY ACRS THE MTNS.
AVL 68/85/67/86 4333
CLT 72/89/71/91 3333
GSP 70/88/69/90 3333
.GSP...NONE.
CSH
FXUS62 KCHS 011426 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
948 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
09Z RUC DATA SUPPORTS EARLIER MDL TRENDS OF RIPPLING VORT EAST OF THE
CFWA THIS AM. FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE IN WEAK NVA REGION
OF AFOREMENTIONED VORT TO KEEP CVRG IN CHC CATEGORY. MODIFIED 12Z AREA
SNDGS YEILDED MAX CAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH PW'S AROUND 125% OF
NORMAL. SO...SLOW MOVERS & LCL HVY RAIN PRODUCERS POSSIBLE. WITH
HEIGHTS RISING...SOURCES OF LARGER SCALE FORCING BECOMING LESS
OBVIOUS...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM 88D/SAT DATA...LOOKS LIKE SOME
WEAK IMPULES STILL WILL ROTATE THRU & PROBABLY SOME SMALLER SCALE
BNDRYS FLOATING AROUND THIS AM AS WELL TO FOCUS ACTIVITY.
.GSP...NONE.
CSH
sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
800 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
UPDATES ON TAP FOR MOST OF CWA...MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING
NOW THAT AFTN CU IS DISSIPATING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
ARE ABOUT OUT OF CWA. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING/POPS OF
OVERNIGHT TSRA CHCS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...AS 21Z RUC SHOWS GREATER
LLJ ACTION AND 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 09Z. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR WINDS AT THIS TIME.
.FSD...NONE
HAMEN
FXUS63 KUNR 020025 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
625 PM MDT THU JUL 1 1999
COMPLICATED EVENING FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSES A
CHALLENGE. A FEW STORMS FIRED OVER THE NRN BLKHLS...POSSIBLY DUE TO
LOCAL CONVERGENCE. A LARGE AREA OF STORMS WAS OVER CNTRL MT AND HAD
A TRAJECTORY WHICH WOULD BRING THEM ACROSS THE NRN CWA. THESE WERE
BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL MT...AND THEY SHOULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STRONG 700 MB WAA
THAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA INTO FAR ERN WY AND WRN
SD. THE 21Z RUC PROGS THIS TO CONTINUE INCREASING...WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE QPF FROM THE NRN BLKHLS ACROSS SCNTRL SD OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...I HAVE ONLY UPDATED FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER NWRN SD. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE...
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO UPDATE FOR MUCH HIGHER POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AT 56 M/S...THE CAPE IS LOW WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER IF ANY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WIND GUSTS.
.UNR...NONE.
BUNKERS
FXUS63 KUNR 012121 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
DIFFICULTIES THIS FCST PD IN PCPN ONCE AGAIN. IN THE SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REFIRED ALONG I 90 FM NR KFSD TO KBKX...WITH SOME
WDLY SCT ACTIVITY CLOSER TO KHON. BLV THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLD TSTM ARE A THREAT ACRS CWA UNTIL SUNSET...WITH COOL TEMPS AT
700MB AND A RELATIVELY WM GROUND. A FUNNEL CLD WAS SPOTTED NR LAKE
HERON IN JACKSON CO EARLIER THIS AFTN...AS A RESULT OF A RAPIDLY
FORMING SHWR FINDING AN UPDRAFT. PRBLY BEST DESCRIBED AS A LANDSPOUT
BUT IT WAS CERTAINLY NO COLD AIR FUNNEL.
THE NXT MID LVL SHORTWV AND VORT FILAMENT ROLLS THROUGH LATER TNGT.
NEW RUC HAS MOST QPF IN SD BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AM LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE ETA QPF WHERE MOST ACTIVITY MAY FIRE IN NEB...MOVG EWD TO SEWRD.
AN MCS MAY GET GOING ON THE NOSE OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LLVL JET
IN THE WEST...SHIFTING TOWARD THE CWA LATE TNGT. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND BOTH THE NGM AND ETA SHOW GOOD LLVL CONV/UA DIV BY 12Z
FRI. IN ADDN...MID LVL LIFT IS TREMENDOUS WITH A LARGE AMT OF WAA.
AM THINKING THE BETTER CHCS WL BE ALONG THE SRN PTN OF CWA...LESSER
MOVG NWD. THIS IS DUE TO THE ABV MENTIONED LLVL CONV/UA DIV AND LIFT
BEING STRONG OVR THE SOUTH.
SHWRS/TSTMS MAY LINGER FRI MRNG...BUT THEN A LARGE AMT OF MID LVL
WARMING BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON FRI...COUPLED WITH A VERY STRONG LLVL
JET OF OVR 40 KTS. THTE RIDGING IS STRONG ON THE WRN SIDE OF
CWA...WITH VERY HIGH CAPES AND VERY UNSTABLE LI'S. ALL TOLD...WITH
THIS KIND LIFT...INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CIN...THERE COULD BE A
REFIRE OF TSTMS BY AFTN...ESP ACRS THE EAST WITH THE LLVL JET. BY
FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER LLVL BNDRY AND SHRTWV TRY TO OOZE DOWN FM THE
NW. HOWEVER THE CAP BECOMES STRONG...ESP OVR THE SOUTH. CINS ARE
HIGH...BUT AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT THE ETA AND AVN ARE OVERDOING
THE WM AIR A BIT TOO MUCH AT 700MB...AND FOLLOWED THE NGM CAP FRI
NIGHT AND ERLY SAT. THIS TIME...THE LIFT RIDES THE CAP ACRS THE NRN
PTN OF CWA WITH GOOD THTE RIDGING. SO ANOTHER MCS MAY FORM OVR THE
NORTH. FOLLOWED THE ETA SFC PTRN AND DO NOT BLV ANY SORT OF REAL
COOLING TYPE BNDRY WL MAKE IT THRU CWA ON SAT...SO IGNORED FWC TEMPS
ON SAT. HOWEVER WITH MOIST GROUND...FAN MAY BE TOO WM SAT AND SUN.
.FSD...NONE
FUHS
FXUS63 KABR 012016 sd
TENNESSEE/MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
833 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
*****************NOTICE OF CHANGE JULY 20*******************
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION BECOMES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
AFOS/NOAA WEATHER WIRE ID MEMSFDMEM MEMAFDMEM
WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID FXUS74 KMEM FXUS64 KMEG
MEMSFDMEM WILL BE DISCONTINUED AS OF 1100 AM CDT JULY 20.
************************************************************
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX FM OLD MCS HELPING TO INITIATE NEW
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER SE KY/NW TN THIS EVENING. 21Z RUC MOVES THIS
SYS INTO NRN MID TN AND PLATEAU OVRNGT. WL INCR POPS NRN MID TN AND
ADD POPS ELSW ACRS MID TN..PER AFDBNA. E TN LOOKS FINE. WL DROP POPS
FM NW TN ONCE SHRAS/TSRAS MOVE INTO MID TN.
.MEM...NONE.
SJM
FXUS64 KOHX 020108 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
800 PM CDT THU JUL 01 1999
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED UPPER LVL VORT CENTER
OVER SWRN KY, AND SUPPORTS LATEST RUC SOLUTION THAT NOW DROPS A
VORTICITY AXIS SEWD INTO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT (IN CLOSER AGREEMENT
WITH "WETTER" 12Z ETA THAN DRIER 12Z "NGM"). THUS, EVEN THOUGH STORMS
WILL BE MOVING INTO ONLY A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, BLV ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WARRANTS AT LEAST A MODEST
INCREASE IN POPS FOR OUR MOST NORTHERN SET OF ZONES (AND WILL
PROBABLY AMEND FORECAST TO CARRY MENTION OF "SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS" AND A 40% POP). WILL ALSO PROBABLY GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE A 20% POP INTO THE OTHER ZN SETS JUST IN CASE TSTMS HOLD
TOGETHER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IF STORM THREAT INCREASES
FOR THOSE AREAS, WILL BUMP POPS UP LATER.
STATS FROM 00Z BNA RAOB:
LI -2 CAPE 727 J/KG SWEAT 396 TT'S 43
CAP 1 DEG C PW 1/75 INCH
19
FXUS64 KMRX 020055 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
MRX FORECAST/COUNTY WARNING AREA IS ACTUALLY RAIN FREE FOR NOW.
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS HUGE MCS HAS DIED OVER AR/MO. SMALLER
MCS IS MOVING EAST INTO WRN PARTS OF OHIO VALLEY REGION ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT MAY BE BACK BUILDING OVER SW KY/NW TN AT
THIS TIME. SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN ADVANCE OF THE MCS
FROM W OF BNA TO NEAR MKL...LIKELY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
JUST VIEWED 21Z RUC MODEL...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO 12Z NGM MODEL
IN OFFERING A FAVORABLE 850-700 MB DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN
OVER ERN KY/SWRN VA/NE TN. EVEN IF MCS WEAKENS...IT COULD CERTAINLY
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUR WAY. THUS...FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
LATE NIGHT CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WILL BE SWRN VA AND NRN MOST TN
ZONES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE...SO I PREFER TO
KEEP CURRENT RAIN CHANCES INTACT...IN SPITE OF NO PCPN AT THIS TIME.
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A
BKN TO OVC LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR INCREASING MID-HI CLOUDS FOR ESPECIALLY NRN MOST ZONES...
THUS MAY OPT FOR BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN ALL BUT SRN ZONES. CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP PATCHY FOG TO A MINIMUM...AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING. MIN
TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE GIVEN LATEST DEWPOINTS OF MID 60S (SWRN VA)
TO LWR 70S (SRN ZONES). #10
TG
FXUS74 KMEG 011957 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
901 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN BIG COUNTRY. HOWEVER... 21Z
RUC PLACES 30-40 KT LLJ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PER
CONVERSATION WITH FTW OFFICE... CAUTION LAKES WARRANTED FOR EASTERN BIG
COUNTRY.
17
FXUS74 KFWD 020158 tx
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT 12 PM EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF CDS TO SOUTH OF
LBB TO SOUTH OF HOB. THE RUC SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING BY 00Z.
THE LATEST ETA MODEL FCST SHOWS A BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER FA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLY OVER MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES.
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SHOWS EXTENSIVE H5 HIGH OVER EASTERN HALF
OF US WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIM CCF
LBB 73/98/71/96 0000
.LBB...NONE.
FXUS74 KLUB 011655 tx
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
MCS OUTFLOW IS ACTING MORE LIKE A FRONT. BOUNDARY IS FROM KGAG TO
JUST SOUTH OF KCVS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AT KLBB.
VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE NORTH WINDS AT 20 KNOTS ABOUT 6KFT. THIS
CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST RUC WHICH INDICATES WINDS TO STAY
NORTHERLY...THEN SHIFT EASTERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. WILL UPDATE
WIND DIRECTION FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, EASTERN AREAS
LOOK GOOD SO WILL NOT UPDATE THEM.
.LBB...NONE.
AC
FXUS74 KFWD 011624 tx
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
247 AM MDT FRI JUL 2 1999
ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER UT PORTION OF CWA LATE LAST EVENING
AND CONTINUES ACROSS CO PORTION THIS MORNING. AM ATTRIBUTING TO VORT
CENTER INDICATED ON RUC MODEL THAT MOVED UP FROM NORTHERN AZ. ETA AND
AVN SEEM TO MISS THE FEATURE COMPLETELY...WHILE NGM PICKS IT UP BUT
HAS IT TOO FAR SOUTH. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND MODELS ALL SHOWING A
MOIST AREA OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM DRIFTING NORTH ALONG WITH SMALL VORT
CENTER FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN UT/CO AROUND NOON TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...NGM AND AVN NOW CALLING FOR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S
TODAY AND SATURDAY. THUS BELIEVE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WORTH
MENTIONING TODAY...THOUGH EXPECT THAT THOSE THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH GUSTY WIND. THUNDERSTORMS ON TOP OF THE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF CWA...DUE TO THE RECENT HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER ON THE FRONT BURNER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH AVN STILL RUNNING
WARMEST AND NGM COOLEST AND MORE MOIST. ALL SHOWING 700MB
TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AND FWC/FAN GUIDANCE
BOTH VERY CLOSE FOR FIRST 24 HOURS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS. HOWEVER
HAVE TO QUESTION THIS OUTCOME DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AM STILL ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ISSUE
BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS PULLING BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE.
IN EXTENDED...LOW WILL DIG DOWN PACIFIC COAST POPPING RIDGE OVER EAST
COAST STATES AND STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO CWA.
HOWEVER...AS TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INLAND IT WILL AGAIN FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BEFORE IT
REESTABLISHES OVER THE WEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS
WESTERN CO TO REMAIN WITHIN REACH OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND TO PERSIST
AS WELL. MEANTIME MOST ENERGY WITH TROUGH TO PASS NORTH OF CWA WITH
ONLY SMALL VORT CENTERS PASSING THROUGH CWA SO CAN/T DISCOUNT
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL LEAVE EXTENDED AS IS. GL
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO
THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
.GJT...NONE.
FXUS65 KBOU 012059 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999
EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH SEEN IN 60 METER HEIGHT
RISES AT 500MB LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
MAY BE A WEAK...ALMOST WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...HARD TO FIND. VORT MAX THAT
SPAWNED EVENING TSRA IS EAST OF THE FA...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND TSRA
FORMING PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SE MO. WVAPOR...LAPS AND RUC SHOW
ANOTHER LOBE AT 700MB IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH LAPS
SHOWING INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SRN PORTIONS OF SE MO INTO SRN
SECTIONS OF WRN KY. CONTINUE TO FAVOR ETA...AVN SOLUTIONS AS THEIR
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN DECENT CONSIDERING DIFFICULT REGIME TO FCST.
WILL MAINTAIN A CHC POP TODAY...AS THE ETA KEEPS K-INDICES RUNNING
28 TO 32. HOWEVER...H8 THETA-E VALUES LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
UPPER SUPPORT BECOMING INCREASINGLY WEAK. HOWEVER IT BECOMES RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES FCST TO REACH 2000- 3500 J/KG...AND 700MB RH
REMAINS ABV 50 PERCENT. FOR TONIGHT...NIL UPPER SUPPORT OR LOW TROP
FOCUS. AND WITH MEAN RH LOWERING...SHOULD BE DRY...WARM AND HUMID.
CONCERN ARISES IN THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH BIG OL' UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ETA AND AVN BOTH HINTING AT ROTATING HIGHER
MEAN RH BACK AROUND TO THE WRN PERIPHREY AS THE CENTROID SHIFTS MORE
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. SINCE WE HAVE THE
TERM "LITTLE" OR NO RAIN GOING...WILL LEAVE ALONE. MAY HAVE TO BE
ADDED TO FCST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. FMR NUMBERS LIKELY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE...ENCROACHING ON 100 DEGREES. WILL HAVE TOO MUCH
ENERGY SPENT EVAPORATING "RAIN SOAKED AIR". LATEST NWP NOS ALREADY
TRENDING DOWN...AND WILL HEDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES BEYOND 24 HOURS.
NONE THE LESS...UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND HEAT LIKELY UPCOMING.
.PAH...NONE.
CN
FXUS71 KRLX 020614 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1050 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA THREAT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN GRT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING 850
MOISTURE PRODUCING TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 52. CAPES THOUGH GENERALLY
ONLY IN 300-700 J/KG RANGE. KMQT 88D INDICATED SHRA FADING LAST FEW
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONE ISOLD SHRA NEAR IMT SHOULD
ALSO FADE QUICKLY BY 04Z.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING AOB 800 MB PER RUC FCST SNDGS AND AREA
00Z SNDGS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING MID/UPR CLOUDS EXPECT AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GROW. KSAW ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM IN FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS LINGER AT KERY AND KCMX. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING MIN TEMP FCST ON TRACK.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 020227 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
FOR SHORT TERM...LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE AT THIS
TIME. RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BEST AND HAS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
AND LIFT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THIS CWFA
AFTER DAYBREAK. MOST PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR
AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND ALOFT.
LATER TODAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOP...AS WE SEE WEAK DPVA...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN AREA. HARD TO PIN EXACT AREA DOWN BUT BEST
UPLIFT LATE IN THE DAY IS CENTERED OVER FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NC. WIND SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NOT ALL
THAT EXCITING SO EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS.
LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
COMING AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THAT IS NOSING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.
I WILL DROP MOST MENTION OF PRECIP FROM ZONES FOR SATURDAY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE
SEE LITTLE DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
PRELIMINARY CCF
AVL...84/67/85 3/2/3
CLT...88/71/90 3/3/2
GSP...89/70/90 3/3/2
.GSP...NONE.
RBN
FXUS62 KCHS 020138 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
250 AM CDT FRI JULY 2 1999
WSR-88D AND IR IMAGERY SHOW NW-SE ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING ABR CWA FROM WEST...IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
MOVING INTO SW SD AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD.
SITUATION SEEMS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED BY ETA AND RUC. AVN ALSO HAS A
HANDLE ON THE GENERAL SITUATION...THOUGH DETAILS MUCH BETTER
DEPICTED ON ETA. LAPS DATA THROUGH 07Z SHOWS THETA-E RIDGE POKING
INTO SW AND S-CENTRAL SD AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD SW PORTION OF
CWA. LAPS CAPE VALUES RISING THIS SAME AREA BUT AS OF 07Z REMAIN
BELOW 1000 J/KG...IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ETA FORECAST.
STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST...GENERALLY PARALLEL TO MEAN 700-500H
FLOW. POPS FOR EARLY PORTION OF FIRST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS. FOR NOW...WILL LIKELY INCLUDE EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COUNTIES
WHICH WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR...BUT WILL LEAVE FINAL POPS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SENDING ZONES...AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. BEYOND THIS FIRST
WAVE...ETA FORECAST LI WELL INTO NEGATIVE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ETA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY FOR MORE
THAN GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT UNTIL FRI EVE-NIGHT WHEN NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. HENCE WILL INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT ETA 700H TEMPS INCREASING ABOVE
10C INDICATE MID LEVELS MAY BE CAPPED AND THUS INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG STORMS. NGM SURFACE FORECAST APPEARS TOO FAST AND THUS
HAVE DISCOUNTED FWC TEMPS...ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY.
.ABR...NONE.
FXUS63 KABR 020206 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
800 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
UPDATES ON TAP FOR MOST OF CWA...MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING
NOW THAT AFTN CU IS DISSIPATING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
ARE ABOUT OUT OF CWA. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING/POPS OF
OVERNIGHT TSRA CHCS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...AS 21Z RUC SHOWS GREATER
LLJ ACTION AND 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 09Z. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR WINDS AT THIS TIME.
.FSD...NONE
HAMEN
FXUS63 KUNR 020025 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
ETA/RUC MODELS PREFERRED IN HANDLING OF MCS THIS MORNING.
FRIDAY STARTS OFF WITH A BANG WITH LIKELY TSTMS AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS SHORT-WAVE WEAKENS AND SLOWS. DESPITE EARLY
CLOUDS & PRECIP...TEMPS WILL CLIMB WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS OVER AREA AT SURFACE.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SE US FROM SW AND BECOMES NEARLY
CENTERED OVER MRX BY END OF PERIOD. MODELS DEPICT NORTHERN JET
STREAM MAINTAINING A SHARP EDGE AND FAIRLY ZONAL EARLY ON. THEN
CONTINUES TO MOVE THE JET NORTH AS RIDGE BUILDS IN. THICKNESS
DIVERGENCE REFLECTED BY THIS SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN NOCTURNAL
MCS TYPE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF MRX. TEMPS ALOFT ARE
ALREADY WARM OVER REGION (500 MB -6C). WARM AND MUGGY.
CHA TB 087/071 091/072 092 17732
TYS TB 087/070 090/071 092 17732
TRI TB 085/067 090/069 090 17732
OQT TB 088/070 090/071 092 17732
SON
FXUS64 KOHX 020249 AMD tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 2 1999
WV LOOP SHOWS FAST ZONAL FLOW OVR N U.S WITH JET AXIS TO OUR NORTH OVR
S/CEN MT. FLOW BUCKLING TO THE WEST AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVR CEN PACIFIC
AND LOW DIGS S ACRS BC...NR VANCOUVER AT 06Z. S/W RIDGE OVR ID WITH
TRAIN OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVG THRU FLOW ACRS NW U.S. AT SFC...07Z
ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW OVR NE PNHDL/NE CO WITH SECONDARY LOW OVR CEN WY
AND SFC TROF EXTENDING NWD ACRS BIG HORN BASIN.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE OVR NEXT 48 HRS WILL BE TEMPS AND WNDS. ETA 00Z
RUN WAS HANDLING 5H FTRS BEST WITH 6H FCST COMPARISON TO 06Z RUC INIT
NEARLY IDENTICAL AND REPRESENTATIVE. 7H TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
ANOTHER 3C TO 4C TDY AS FLOW BACKS WITH TEMP ADV ABV 5H NEUTRAL. SFC
TROF AXIS TO REMAIN NRLY STATIONARY TDY WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW WORKING
INTO NE ZNS. W/SW WINDS WILL MAINLY BE A FACTOR WEST OF SFC TROF IN
JAC AND SW ZNS TDY. BRZY AT BEST IN BASINS AND CPR. FWC/FAN TEMPS
CLOSE IN S AND E ZNS BUT FWC WAY TOO COOL IN N ZNS. JUST ISOLD POPS
IN ZNS 15...27>28 THIS AFTN. S/W MOVES ACRS SE WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS TO THE EAST OF FA. LI/S OVR THESE ZNS 0 TO -1 WITH CAPES
300 TO 500 J/KG. THETA-E RIDGE OVR PLAINS WITH GRADIENT OVR NE
PNHNDL/WSTRN SD. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG E SLOPES OF BIG
HORNS WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH HIGHER 50+ DPS ALSO PROGGED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST.
ON SAT...SFC TROF SHIFTS EAST INTO PLAINS AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES
OVER. THIS WILL BE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WINDS TO BLOW IN E ZNS. NO
POPS AS MSTR/INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS STAY EAST. TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER BUT NOT AS WARM AS FAN NUMBERS. ON THE FOURTH...AVN LIFTS AND
WKNS UPR LOW INTO CAN WITH 7H GRADIENT RELAXING OVR FA FOR LESS WIND
AND DRY DAY.
.RIW...NONE.
AEM
FXUS65 KCYS 020805 wy
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1046 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
CURRENTLY...RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WEST AND THE 12Z RUC PACKAGE IS INDICATING A
WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO
LIKELY POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EASTERLY FLOW DID
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.
BLS
FXUS62 KMLB 021336 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
TODAY...MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS STILL
INDICATED IN RUC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF THIS WITH MORE SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT AT CAPE CANAVERAL THAN TAMPA. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH
WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH ABOUT NOON (EST) THEN FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE INTERIOR. THOUGH SOUNDINGS WERE VERY MOIST...CONSIDERABLE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. NOT
PLANNING ON ANY POSSIBLE UPDATES UNTIL LATE MORNING.
MARINE...BUOYS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT.
.MLB...NONE.
LASCODY
FXUS62 KTAE 021324 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
249 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999
...GLOBALLY...
GLOBAL MOSAIC OF GMS-5...GOES 8/10...AND METEOSAT 7 WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOWS RETROGRESSION ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE IS WELL UNDERWAY AS
A 4 WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES. A JET OF 100+ KNOTS (BASED ON DARKNESS)
RUNNING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL RETROGRESS
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD PLACE MOST OF THE CONTINENT
UNDER A LARGE RIDGE AND A RESULTANT HEAT WAVE FOR THE COMING WEEK.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD RETROGRESS INTO THE
WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW A TROF TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH A RESULTANT TROF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NET RESULT HERE IS A HEAT WAVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES OR
BETTER DURING THE DAY. THE RING OF FIRE WILL BE ACTIVE BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WHEN THE
RIDGE RETROGRESSES INTO THE ROCKIES AND WEST COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK
THE RING OF FIRE SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
...LOCALLY...
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA HAS A SHORTWAVE AROUND 700 MB MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT QG FORCING
...A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS...AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET
STREAK WAS LOWERING CONDESATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALLOWING ELEVATED
TSRA TO DEVELOP. A 90 KNOT JET WITH EMBEDDED 120 KNOT JET STREAKS
RAN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST BRISTISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF
OF ALASKA. IR AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A BIT OF
THIN CI ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE ACROSS THE AREA. 06Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A WARM FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH A LOW IN
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS LOW AND MID 60 DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH 70+ DEW POINTS AS NEARBY AS THE I70 CORRIDOR IN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND OVERALL TIMING FOR ANY
RAIN.
00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK WITH THE ETA/NGM/RUC DOING
BETTER AT 06Z. HOWEVER CLOSER EXAMINATION YIELDS THAT MESOSCALE
PROCESSES ARE DOMINATING AND THUS THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING WHAT
IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND EACH DIVERGES OVER TIME INTO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THUS WILL TOSS THE MODELS AND USE THE 06Z RUC (WHICH
SEEMS TO FINALLY KNOW WHATS GOING ON) AND GO FROM THERE. SO...HERE
WE GO. 06Z RUC AGREES WELL WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON IN
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND MAIN FEATURES. THE RUC TAKES THE BEST
QG FORCING AND LOWEST CONDESATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 18Z. EXTRAPOLATION WOULD THEN
TAKE THIS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE ETA SHOWS THIS THE BEST. THE CURRENT LLJ
SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME DURING THE DAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA.
USING THE ETA AS AN EXTENSION TO THE RUC THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO
50+ KNOTS TONIGHT POINTING TO MCS DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. CURRENT FLOW ALOFT WOULD THEN PROPAGATE THE MCS
EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MCS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES.
THEREFORE WILL GO COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOULD THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
FWC/FAN NUMBERS LOOK TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT WITH TWEAKS
AS NEEDED. TRAJECTORY METHOD WOULD YIELD HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
BUT WITH WAA ACROSS THE AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN LINE
WITH FAN NUMBERS IF NOT A BIT WARMER.
...EXTENDED...
EXTENDED LOOKS OK ATTM AND WILL NOT CHANGE. HEAT INDICES TO BE OVER
100 DEGREES AS HEAT WAVE ARRIVES WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI...AND STL.
.DVN...NONE.
NC
ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999
EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH SEEN IN 60 METER HEIGHT
RISES AT 500MB LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
MAY BE A WEAK...ALMOST WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...HARD TO FIND. VORT MAX THAT
SPAWNED EVENING TSRA IS EAST OF THE FA...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND TSRA
FORMING PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SE MO. WVAPOR...LAPS AND RUC SHOW
ANOTHER LOBE AT 700MB IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH LAPS
SHOWING INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SRN PORTIONS OF SE MO INTO SRN
SECTIONS OF WRN KY. CONTINUE TO FAVOR ETA...AVN SOLUTIONS AS THEIR
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN DECENT CONSIDERING DIFFICULT REGIME TO FCST.
WILL MAINTAIN A CHC POP TODAY...AS THE ETA KEEPS K-INDICES RUNNING
28 TO 32. HOWEVER...H8 THETA-E VALUES LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
UPPER SUPPORT BECOMING INCREASINGLY WEAK. HOWEVER IT BECOMES RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES FCST TO REACH 2000- 3500 J/KG...AND 700MB RH
REMAINS ABV 50 PERCENT. FOR TONIGHT...NIL UPPER SUPPORT OR LOW TROP
FOCUS. AND WITH MEAN RH LOWERING...SHOULD BE DRY...WARM AND HUMID.
CONCERN ARISES IN THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH BIG OL' UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ETA AND AVN BOTH HINTING AT ROTATING HIGHER
MEAN RH BACK AROUND TO THE WRN PERIPHREY AS THE CENTROID SHIFTS MORE
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. SINCE WE HAVE THE
TERM "LITTLE" OR NO RAIN GOING...WILL LEAVE ALONE. MAY HAVE TO BE
ADDED TO FCST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. FMR NUMBERS LIKELY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE...ENCROACHING ON 100 DEGREES. WILL HAVE TOO MUCH
ENERGY SPENT EVAPORATING "RAIN SOAKED AIR". LATEST NWP NOS ALREADY
TRENDING DOWN...AND WILL HEDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES BEYOND 24 HOURS.
NONE THE LESS...UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND HEAT LIKELY UPCOMING.
.PAH...NONE.
CN
FXUS71 KRLX 020614 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
FOG/LOW CLDS BEING VERY SLO TO CLR OUT OF A FEW PLACES... LAKE SUPER
SHORE ON FAR NWRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...AND ERN PART OF THE
YOOP... SPCLY SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE CNTYS.
ALTHO THE BULK OF THIS LOW STUFF SHD BURN OFF AM CONCERNED THAT
WINDS WL BCM ONSHORE THIS AFTN AND THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME
MSTR INTO THE NW SHORE AND LAKE MI SHORE. DON/T HAVE AS GOOD A FEEL
FOR THE LUCE CNTY SHORELINE ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE BRIGHT CONDITION OF
THE ALGER SHORELINE AM MORE OPTIMISTIC THERE.
Q-VEC DIVERGENCE OUGHT TO HOLD MOST CLDS AT BAY THRU THE BULK OF THE
AFTN...BUT BY LATE DAY THE HI CLDS CRNTLY OVR MN WL START TO EDGE IN
AHD OF NEXT AREA OF Q-VEC CONVERGENCE. IN ADTN... CU SCHEME FM BOTH
LAST EVENING/S SHORT TERM MDLS AND 12Z RUC RUN SHOW FAIR WX CU
POTL. WL TWEAK CLD WORDING ACCORDINGLY... WL GO W/ A MORE PLEASANT
SOUNDING MIX OF CLDS AND SUN MOST AREAS.
TEMPS QUITE PLEASANT THIS MORG...GNRLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ATTM..
BUT XPCT THEY WILL CONT TO RISE STEADILY. WL LIKELY BUMP TEMPS UP A
CAT OR SO IN INTERIOR SW SXNS AND MAKE AN ALLOWANCE FOR COLR TEMPS
ALG THE GOG-ONT SHORE.
.MQT...NONE.
DESROSIERS
FXUS63 KMQT 021301 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1015 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MCS ONGOING TO
THE SOUTH OF CWA...WITH WEAKER CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVR SW MN
ALONG NRN OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. WARM FRONT EVIDENT ACRS NRN
NEB/WRN IA...AND WATER VAPOR/PROFILERS INDICATING A WEAK EMBEDDED
S/W IN THE SAME AREA. 40KT LLJ CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO SW MN.
LATEST RUC INDICATES WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SRN MN BY 00Z. IN
ADDITION...850 MB FLOW REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS
MAINTAINS STG CONVERGENCE INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH
FAIRLY STG ELVATED INSTABILITY...AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT ACTIVITY
TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN. WILL REWORK ZFP WORDING ACCORDINGLY.
.MSP...NONE.
DAVIS
FXUS63 KDLH 020852 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
910 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN CWA WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT WEST OF CWA TOWARD DAWN.
21Z RUC INDICATED THAT WEAK FORCING TO REMAIN OVER CWA UNTIL ABOUT
06Z. RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED TSRA OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH ELONGATED VORTICITY ALONG 25H JET AXIS FROM
MONTANA/NODAK/CENTRAL MN. CONVECTION STILL GOING OVER SOUTHEAST
NODAK...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE POSSIBLE VORT CENTER
MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO SMALL POP IN THE
NORTH CWA. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY TO TALK ABOUT. 21Z
RUC/18Z ETA DID INITIATE CONVECTION SOUTHERN SODAK LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG 85H THETA-E ADVECTION/WAA DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET. DONT
BELIEVE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO FAR WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THOUGH. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.
.MSP...NONE
DWE
FXUS63 KMPX 012043 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
CDFNT NR KPLB-KBGM VCNTY...BUT DWPNTS DO NOT DROP OFF SGFNTLY TIL
BACK OVR ONTARIO. TSTMS MOVD OFF INTO SRN VT AND ADDITIONAL SHWRS
STILL INVOF THE FNT WITH LARGEST BATCH OVR WRN CTSKLS. RUC ADVANCES
BNDRY EWD ACRS VT THIS AFTN...BUT WKNS SHOWS UP ACRS PA AND THKNS
PAT FAILS TO PROGRESS ACRS SERN NY. WL BACKPEDAL DOWN TO SCT SHWRS
OR TSTMS ACRS NWRN DIST...HOWEVER CTSKLS E AND NEWD STILL WORTHY
OF LKLY POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON 12Z KALY SOUNDING AGAIN
APCHG 2 IN. EXISTING TEMP FCST NEEDS LTLCG. MCKINLEY/GJM
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.
FXUS61 KBUF 021432 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER CWA THIS MORNING AND A NICE SHOWER MOVING
OVER US NOW. 12Z RAOBS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT SHOWERS INLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY
BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTN.
RUC SHOWING A VORT MAX OFF SE COAST AND 12Z RUN ADVANCES THIS
FEATURE CLOSER YTHRU 00Z. ALL IN ALL GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD ON TO 30 POPS AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
CURRENT TEMPS LOOK GOOD AS WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNNY MIXED IN WITH
CLOUDS. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED.
CWF...GOING FCST LOOKS IN LINE WITH CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
.ILM...NONE.
PJN
FXUS62 KMHX 021350 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
NICE DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF ERN NC AS BERMUDA HIGH CONT TO
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD IN FROM THE E. SOME WIDELY SCT SHRA AND ISOLD
AFTN TSTMS WILL EFFECT SOME AREAS HOWEVER ANY PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
BRIEF. SHRA OVR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND S OF CAPE LOOKOUT HAVE HELD
ON THIS AM AND WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THE AFTN. RUC AND MESOETA BOTH
PICK UP ON A WEAKNESS IN THE H5 RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS ALSO PICK UP ON ELONGATED H5 VORT OVR CENTRAL NC AND
ANOTHER VORT APPROACHING FROM THE SE. AS THE AREA GETS SQUEEZED BTWN
THESE TWO FEATURES WE WILL CONT TO SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA PERSISTING
OVER THE CSTL WATERS. SEA BREEZE WILL GET GOING EARLY SO SOME WDLY
SCT SHRA ALSO PSBL INLAND THIS AFTN. MORN SNDG CONT TO SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO 30%
FOR CSTL COUNTIES AS WDLY SCT SRA MAY MOVE ONSHORE LATER TDY.
CSTL...CURRENT CSTL FCST ON TRACK. HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN A LITTLE
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND WINDS S OF HAT HAVE DECREASED TO 15 KT.
WITH TIGHTER PRES GRAD N OF HAT WILL KEEP 20 KT WINDS THERE. WINDS
OVER THE SOUNDS AROUND 15 KT SO WILL TWEAK WIND THERE TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
.MHX...NONE
ORROCK
FXUS72 KRAH 021026 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
945 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999
.CURRENT SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
13Z SURFACE AND MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH 70 DEWPOINT AIR POOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BOUNDAY
OVER KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MCS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DECAYING RAPIDLY AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNFRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT IN THE FORM OF A STABLE
AIRMASS.
.SHORT TERM...
12Z RUC SUGGESTS 5H WEAK SHEAR AXIS TO LINGER THROUGH AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FERGUS FALLS TO DEVILS LAKE LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED POPS
IN INHERITED ZONE PACKAGE STILL APPEAR WITHIN REASON. WILL INGEST
INCOMING 12Z MODEL PACKAGE BEFORE PASSING FINAL JUDGEMENT.
.FGF...NONE.
BERG
FXUS63 KBIS 020928 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
948 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
88-D SHOWS SHWRS TRYING TO PUSH TO THE COAST OF SC...HOWEVER CONT TO
ERODE AT 20NM. SOME WEAK SHWRS ALONG THE CSTL SWAMPS OF GA. 12Z RAOB
SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE..1.89 PW...WITH WK STEERING WINDS. XPCT SOME
SHRA/TSTMS TO BRING HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE...CHS LI -6...WITH CAPES ARND 2K. WET BULBS ARE HIGH
WITH NOT MUCH WIND TO MIX DOWN AND HIGH EL AND NO ORGANIZED LIFT.
DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR. MESO AND RUC DO NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR QPF AND 00Z MDLS INDICATING BEST LIFT WAS BETWEEN 06
AND 12Z THIS AM. WL CONT WITH 40 POP UNDER PC SKIES WITH AFTERNOON
CONV. WINDS LOOK GOOD ON CURRENT PACKAGE. TEMPS HOWEVER LOOK ON THE
LOW SIDE FOR CHS. AT PRESENT WE ARE AT 80...WL BUMP TEMPS TO MIDDLE
80S FOR INLAND AND REMAIN LOWS COAST.
CWF...LATEST OBS HAVE DROPPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALL MODELS
ARE NOT REFLECTING ANYTHING TO SFC FROM UPR LVL CIRC OFF THE SC/GA
COAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND VWP FROM AROUND THE RGN SHOW MOSTLY
LIGHT S/SE FLO BUT BLO WHAT IS ADVERTISED...ESP ACRS THE SRN HALF OF
THE WATERS. WILL MAKE SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH THE
LATEST INFOR.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FXUS62 KCHS 020815 COR sc
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1225 PM MDT FRI JUL 2 1999
SHORT TERM...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ENTERING SOUTHWEST CO AND
SOUTHEAST UTAH SO WE HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR FORMATION OF
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RUC WAS ONLY
MODEL TO PICK UP ON LAST NIGHTS VORT CENTER THAT TRIGGERED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. IT AGAIN IS SHOWING A
STRONG VORT CENTER CROSSING OUR AREA THIS EVENING. NGM HAS NOW
JOINED THIS. ETA SHOWS THIS VORT CENTER STAYING SOUTH OF US.
BELIEVE RUC-NGM SOLUTION SO WILL EXPECT SOME GOOD THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. STRONG
INVERTED V ON 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE DRY WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR WILD FIRE
ENHANCEMENT.
LONGER TERM...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS.
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING ALONG THE US-CANADIAN
BORDER. TOGETHER WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AREA...THIS WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SEVERAL WEAK
VORT CENTERS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER US IN THIS FLOW. THE QUESTION IS
WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. AVN...ETA AND
NGM ALL INDICATE THAT DRYING WILL BE OCCURRING BY SAT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...NGM SEEMS TO SHOVE MOST
OF THE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL CO KEEPING OUR ENTIRE CWA
RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ETA AND AVN SEEM TO KEEP MORE MOISTURE IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW LOTS OF MOISTURE IN AZ AND
NM SO I TEND TO BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ENTIRE AREA WITH BEST CHANCE
IN FOUR CORNERS.
EXTENDED...AS TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST...MRF BUILDS GULF OF MEXICO HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS TYPE OF FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST
MOISTURE TO WEST OF US. HOWEVER...I THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINING SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AROUND.
RWJJ
.GJT...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS OF WESTERN CO BELOW ABOUT 8000 FEET
UNTIL 6PM THIS FRI EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTERN UT FROM TAVAPUTS PLATEAU SOUTHWARD UNTIL
9PM THIS FRI EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE CWA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
FXUS65 KBOU 021003 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999
FAST E-W FLOW OVR THE NRN TWO TIERS OF STATES EVIDENT ON THE 12Z
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. MOST SIG HGT FALLS WERE OVER THE PAC NW WITH
NOTHING BUT RISES OVR MID-AMERICA. SLIGHTLY DIFFL FLOW OVER ERN SD
NERN NE AND NW IA THIS MRNG ALONG WITH 35-40KT SLY H8 FLOW AIDED TSRA
DVLPMNT THIS MRNG ACRS NW IA. AT THE SFC WRM FRONT FM ERN NE/SRN IA
THEN INTO CENTRAL IL. TSRA THAT BLEW UP OVR NWRN IA ERLYR TDA HAS BEEN
TRACKING SE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FIRST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHTS FCST WILL BE
THE CONVECTION OVR CNTRL IA AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST IT WILL MOVE. 88D PICS
OUT OF DMX SHOW THE ERN MOST CELL DCRSNG AS IT APPRCHS DSM. H8 PROFILER
PLOTS AND MSAS MOISTURE DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS STORM IS
EXITING AREA OF BEST SWLY INFLO AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...CAPES
OVER SERN IA HAVE REAHCED 4000 J/KG NR FNT OVR NRN MO AND 18Z DVN
SOUNDING HAS A WK CAP JUST ABV H850. LK AT THE 15Z RUC ALSO SHOWS H8
WNDS VEERING THIS AFTN AND ERLY THIS EVE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
PROFILER TRENDS SO BLV THERE ARE ENUF FACTORS TO INCLUDE POPS AT LEAST
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TAIL END OF MCS FCST TO DVLP OVRN SDKTA
TONIGHT. USING ETA FCST POSN OF WRM FNT...THETA E ADVCTN AND MID-LVL
INSTABILITIES SUGGEST THAT MCS POSSIBLE THIS AREA TONIGHT. H850-H300
THCKNS POINT TO A SE MVMNT WHICH WOULD PUT CWA UNDER THREAT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND ERLY SAT MRNING. ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF CAP WILL LEAVE SOME
DOUBT AS THE TO WRN EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. AFT SAT MRNG THREAT OF PCPN WILL
END AND HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ALL MODELS STILL BUILDING RDG OVR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TMPS WELL INTO THE 90S EXPECTED BY THE 4TH.
STILL THINK FWC MAXES ARE UNDER DONE FOR SAT AND SUN ESPCLY N. BLV STG
SLY-SWLY FLOW WILL BE ENUF TO BUMP TEMPS UP CLOSER TO FAN NMBRS THROUGH
THE PD. FWC MINS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL STAY CLOSE.
EXTENDED...
MRF SHOWING THAT STG WAVE MVNG ACRS SRN CANADA THIS WK END WILL START TO
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER ERN U.S. EFFECTIVELY PUTTING GREAT LAKES RGN
IN NWRLY FLOW BY TUES WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON THE HEAT SOME. IN THE
TRANSISITION TO THE NWLY FLOW A COLD FNT IS FCST TO MV THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST MON NGT AND TUES HOWEVER WOULD PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON MNTN OF
PCPN FOR SINCE ATM STILL LKS CAPPED.
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
FERRY
FXUS63 KDMX 020816 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 PM MDT FRI JUL 2 1999
VERY WARM TO HOT TMPS THIS WEEKEND.
ATTM SATL WAS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WITH A SW
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND INCREASNG AFTN TMPS. 88D WAS SHOWING
A FEW TSRA S/SW OF THE CWA WHICH WAS MOVING ENE AND THE RUC SEEMED
TO ANALYZE THIS WELL.
LOOKING AT DDC 12Z SOUNDING AND MODIFYING IT GAVE VERY IMPRESSIVE
CAPES THIS AFTN OF OVR 5000J. 7/5H LAPSE RATES WERE VERY HIGH AND
TMPS DIF BETWEEN 850/5H WERE BETTER THAN 40C ACROS THE CWA. WITH
CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING JUST S OF THE CWA...TSRA SHUD EITHER
MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THIS LATE AFTN. SOME MID LVL
MOISTR AND COLD AIR ADVTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 5H/VORT LOBE
DRIFTING MAINLY ACROSS THE S CWA THIS EARLY EVENING. 2/3H MB CHARTS
SHOWED A HI OVR E TX WHICH WAS WRAPPING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE AROUND
AND INTO OUR CWA. AWIPS TIME SECTIONS SHOWED IMPRESSIVE OMEGAS ALOFT
AND WITH HIGHS TMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S/DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
SOME STORMS THAT DO BREAK THE CAP SHUD BECOME STRONG IF NOT SEVERE.
MID LVL MOISTR DECREASES SATURDAY AND ETA SHOWS BOTH THE THCKNS AND
5H/HGHTS INCREASING AS DO THE SFC WNDS AND EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM
TO HOT DAY TOMORROW. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE CWA
BUT WITH SFC TMPS NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND DEW PTS IN THE
60S A FEW TSRA AGAIN MAY DEVELOP.
FOR THE FORTH OF JULY APPEARS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTN
TMPS. 5H/HI RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE...ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH SW SFC
WINDS A CONT VERY WARM TO HOT END OF THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE. SOME
MID LVL MOISTR TRIES TO ADVT INTO THE CWA AND WITH THE VERY WARM TMPS
AND ISOLD TSRA MAY DEVELOP.
THE EXTENDED HAS A SFC FRONT APPROACHING THE FA FROM THE NW MONDAY
AND SHUD ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT AFTN TMPS SHUD BE SLIGHTLY COOLR THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE FRONT
SLOWS AS IT EDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT. MUCH OF THE TSRA SHUD BE OVR THE S CWA
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TMPS SHUD BEGIN TO INC ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN OF THE MOISTURE A FEW TSRA
AGAIN SHUD DEVELOP.
.GLD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT) FOR
KSZ041-042.
VPAPOL
FXUS63 KICT 022026 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
TWO FCST PRBLMS TO DEAL WITH THIS FCST PRD. WHAT TO DO WITH CRNT
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CNTRL KY AND SCNDLY...CHCS MOR PRECIP SAT AFTN.
SLO MOVG TSTMS VCNTY TN BRDR PRDCD VRY HVY RN WHILE OTHR SHWR/TSTMS
SCT ACRS CNTRL KY AT 18Z. RUC/SHRT TERM MDLS ALL INDCT VORT MAX
MOVG ACRS TN AND WKNG DRNG AFTN/EVE.
AS FOR SAT...REGARDLESS OF WHICH MDL YOU PREFER...APPRS A VORT MAX
WIL MOV OUT OF CNTRL PLNS N OF KY WITH SOME INCRS IN MN RH BTWN
12-18Z SAT AFTN. BOTH FRH/FRHT65 INDCT MSRBL PRECIP BY 18Z.
WITH MNTN OF PRECIP SAT AFTN WILL HOLD TEMPS BLO FWC GUID WHILE
HOLDG ONTO SOME DEGREE OF CLDS THRUOUT FCST PRD. HI PRES SHOULD
TAKE OVR BY SUN AND WILL ALLW TEMPS TO WRM FRHTR WHILE AGN KEEPG
SOME MNTN OF CLDS.
.SDF...NONE.
RNK
FXUS71 KRLX 021840 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
...MOST OF CONVECTION N AND W OF GRR NEXT 3 DAYS...
AS CAN BE SEEN ON VIS/IR/RADAR COMPOSITE LOOPS BEST CONVECTION ON
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WHERE BEST LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS. RUC SHOWS 850 DWPTS RISE FROM BELOW 5C IN SW MN TO
ABOVE 20C OVER ERN NE. IT IS THIS RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE
HELPING TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT... THIS AREA MOVES NNE INTO CNTL MN. AT THAT TIME IT WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE POLAR JET TO BE AIDED BY THAT ALSO.
SO...WHILE THERE IS SOME THICKNESS DIFLUENCE OVER MI NEXT 48 HRS...
BE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR AND TO N OF WARM FRNT/WHERE LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS POLAR JET WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS ALL
STAYS... AS SEEN ON NCEP QPFPFD/94Q/98Q... NORTH AND WEST OF SW
LOWER MI.
STILL MANY QUESTIONS WITH ALL OF THIS... AVN MID LEVEL TEMPS SEEM TO
HIGH...IF WE HAD 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 16... THAT WOULD SURELY CAP
CONVECTION GIVEN NO BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH AND WITH STRONG SW
WINDS LAKE BREEZE SHOULD NOT BE PROBLEM EITHER. ETA SEEMS TO COOL
AT 700 AS DOES NGM. ALSO ETA SEEM TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH QPF FCST AS
IT DOES NOT MATCH WELL WITH 18Z ANAL OVER IOWA.
BOTTOM LINE... WILL FCST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
DEBRIS CLDS TO COME AND GO. WILL HAVE 30/40 PCT CHC OF TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO REACH AREA. HIGHER POP
NRN PART OF CWA. WILL HAVE SIMILAR FORECAST SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR SAME REASONING. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL STAY CLOSER TO UPPER
JET AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTERSECTION. THAT WILL KEEP SW LWR OUT OF
CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY ACTUALLY.
BY SUNDAY...ENOUGH SW WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM SSW TO GO
FOR HAZY HOT AND HUMID AND NOT MENTION CONVECTION. TEMPS NEAR MOS
DUE TO CLDS TONIGHT AND SAT (WOULD HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS ON HIGH SAT
OTHERWISE).
EXTENED...ENSEMBLES FROM MRF/CANADIAN/UKMET/NOGAPS ALL AGREE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SNEAK THROUGH AREA TUES. SO WILL HAVE
STRONGEST WORDING FOR CONVECTION IN THAT TIME FRAME.
.GRR...NONE.
WDM
FXUS63 KDTX 021855 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1140 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
...UPDATE TO ADD CHC OF TSTMS TO SRN 1/2 OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
LASTEST RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS... MODIFIED FOR HIGHER DWPTS... SINCE
BOTH FCSTING SFC DWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MOST LOCATIONS IN CWA ARE
IN THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. LIFTING THAT PARCEL WITH AFT TEMPS IN THE 80 TO
85 RANGE GIVE CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG AND NO CAP. ALSO EQUILIBIUM LEVEL
WOULD BE NEAR 40000 FT. SINCE RADAD AND SAT SHOW LAKE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDRY JUST WEST OF US-131 AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON RADAR NEAR I-94 AND
US-131 AND SINCE LAPS SHOWS 1000-1600 J/KG ALREADY FROM MKG-LAN SOUTH...
WILL ADD SCT SHWRS AND TSTSM TO ZN FCST FROM MKG TO LAN AND SOUTH BUT
KEEP THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES DRY.
.GRR...NONE.
WDM
FXUS63 KAPX 021526 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF INITIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING...AND EXTENT TO WHICH THE CWA IS THREATENED
TONIGHT.
CURRENT SFC ANLYS INDICATES SFC LOW PRES JUST NW OF LBF WITH A WMFNT
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN AND NE NEB AND THEN SEWD INTO SW IA. MSTR
RICH AIRMASS HAS WORKED NWD INTO CENTRAL PLNS TO THE S OF THE FNT
WITH MID 70S DWPTS FM CNRL NE S TO THE TX GULF COAST.
TSRA WHICH HAD BEEN BACK BUILDING INTO 35KT 85H JET ACROSS PTNS OF
NW IA AND EXTREME NE NEB THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HAVE
WERE CONTG TO PROPAGE SSE ACROSS SHELBY COUNTY AND MAY MOVE INTO NE
POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY SHORTLY. CONFIDI VECTORS CONT THE S MOVEMENT
INTO EARLY EVE. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE RIDING ON EDGE OF WARMER MID
LVL TEMPS WHERE LATEST RUC WAS PROGGING +13C AT 70H OVER EXTRM WRN
IA. RUC PROGS MID LVL TEMPS CONT TO WARM TO NEAR +15C TO +16C OVER
THE CWA BY 03Z AS UPPER HGHTS CONT TO SFC CONVERGENCE ALG WMFNT MAY
YET INITIATE CONVECTION OVER N CNTRL NEB LATER TAFTN...BUT CORE OF
ANY MCS WHICH DVLPS FM THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOV ENE THROUGH SRN
AND ERN SD AND INTO MN BY 12Z SAT. EXTRM NE NEB MAY BE CLIPPED BY
THIS ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP SML POPS THIS AREA. ETA SEEMS TO BREAK
CAP AND GENERATE PCPN ASSD WITH AN ANOMOLOUS VORT MAX WHICH MOVES NE
FM CO. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SUPTROPICAL MOSTURE
FETCH MOVG FM MEX INTO WRN HIGH PLNS THEN NE ACROSS NEB...I FEEL ETA
IS EXTREMELY OVERDONE WITH THIS. I AGREE WITH SPC THAT SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE INITIATED OVER THE WRH HIGH PLNS
TAFTN...WARMING MID LVL TEMPS LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FM
WORKING EWD INTO THE CWA LATER TNGT.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLNS TO ALLOW HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BE IN
FULL FORCE SAT AND SUN. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE DURG
THE AFTN WITH CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG...70H TEMPS RISE TO +15 TO +17
AND NO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SO FEEL CAP WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN. FWC
GUID SEEMS TOO COOL GIVEN 85H TEMPS AND HGHTS AND WILL GO A FEW DEG
HIGHER FOR MAXES. HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO BE NEAR 104 TO 108 SAT AND
SUN AFTN OVER THE CWA. WITH THE MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
WEEKEND...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FIRST BIG HEAT WAVE OF THE
SEASON.
.OMA...NONE
SKERRITT
FXUS63 KGID 021833 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999
PATTERN ALOFT PROGGED TO CHANGE AS MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE
BRIDGES EWD OVER THE NEXT 48H. QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE
WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB FIELD HANG ON TO THIS AREA? ETA SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TROF-LIKE INFLUENCE INTO SAT BEFORE THE
MID-UPPER HIGH ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE AVN/NGM
SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE S AS
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE HERE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WEAK UPPER TROF IS FAIRLY ACTIVE W/ CONVECTION.
SINCE THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE WWD AS RUC INDICATES WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS AND SAT FOR
MAINLY SC ZONES WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. MAY MENTION ISOLATED OR
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON TRENDS
PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN THE BALL-PARK FOR THE MOST PART. WILL GO A
NUDGE WARMER THAN NGM FOR COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. NGM T1 NUMBERS A
BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE ETA OUTPUT FOR SAT/SUN LIKELY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE W OF S WIND COMPONENT. W/ BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING WWD
WINDS MAY BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF ETA SO WILL UNDERCUT NGM BY A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR SAT AND SUN. SEA-BREEZE WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED: CENTER OF UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ON MON W/ THE DEEPER ELY FLOW SUPPRESSED WELL S OF HERE. DIURNAL
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY START BY MID WEEK AS AREA ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER HIGH TO THE E AND W...OTHERWISE NO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMEST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER HIGH COMPLETELY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
CWF: CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY STIRRED THE WIND UP AT FRYING PAN.
FORECAST THROUGH ALL PERIODS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR W/ BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING WWD. SELY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND SPEEDS MAY
BE ENHANCED BY WIDELY SCT STORMS PASSING BY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY CCF:
ILM BB 073/088 071/091 071 210
FLO BB 071/091 070/095 070 110
MYR BB 073/084 073/087 072 220
.ILM...NONE.
PFAFF
FXUS62 KMHX 021726 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
132 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS PLAINS WELL CAPPED ATTM WITH 15Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 5 DEGREE C CAP. FARTHER S AND W SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD WITH WAVE S
OF BIG BEND RGN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR INDICATES MID
LEVEL THETA RIDGE AXIS FAR W IS MOVING NWD WITH CIRCULATION ASSOCD
WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT TEND TO FAVOR A DRY FCST ACROSS
AREA DESPITE RECENT TREND FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BUT WILL WAIT TO GET LAST MINUTE TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING
ON POPS. NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY BY MIDNIGHT AS
TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT OCCURS WITH WRN HIGH PLAINS LOW AND WILL GO
WITH LOW CLOUDS PECOS/TERRELL. PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING N OF PECOS RIVER
TO COVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATTERN CHANGE STILL
ADVERTISED WITH UPPER HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN USA SO COOLING INTO
M90S SEEMS REASONABLE OVER WEEKEND. ATTM WILL OPT TO GO WITH DRY FCST
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL THETA-RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PROXIMITY
OF MTNS. ELY WAVES WILL BE A PLAYER HOWEVER AND MAY HAVE ENUF FOCUSED
LIFT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN PLAINS. UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES
ITSELF 4 CORNERS RGN BY MONDAY BUT MAY BE TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN
DRAMATIC HEAT OF LATE. WILL OPT TO INSERT ISOLD POPS EXTENDED FOR
PLAINS PER ELY WAVES AND MID LEVEL COOLING.
PRELIM NUMBERS
MAF 72/96/71/95 ----
CNM 73/99/71/97 1111
MRF 61/90/59/89 1111
P07 73/93/73/92 ----
GPM
FXUS64 KSJT 021849 tx
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
910 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999
THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A PRONOUNCED CHANGE FOR BRO OVER LAST
NIGHT. PWAT HAS SPRUNG UPWARD TO OVER 2 INCHES..THE LI IS UP TO -7
AND CAPE IS AROUND 4000 J/KG. THE CAP IS MINIMAL. PART OF THE CWFA
IS ALSO IN THE NCEP GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR TODAY. ALL THIS
DUE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE TO THE SOUTH. MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS
MORNING IS TO MONITOR APPROACHING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...SOME OF WHICH HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. TCU ARE POPPING UP VICINITY OF THE SATION THIS MORNING AS
WELL. HARD TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT THIS NEAR STUFF ON THE 88D DUE TO
THE CONE OF SILENCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON DEVELOPING
CONDITIONS. PACKAGE LOOKS WORKABLE FOR NOW...WILL DECIDE ON ANY
MINOR CHANGES SHORTLY. EXTENT OF HEATING TODAY WILL REALLY
DETERMINE AMOUNT AND AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIP. LATEST RUC SHOWS BRUNT
OF WAVE STILL TO THE SOUTH BUT SOME PVA OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY.
CWF...THE SCA FOR TODAY WAS BASED ON STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL LOCAL ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKENED. ANY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL MODIFY HEATING DIFFERENTIAL
OVER THE CWFA AS WELL. WITH CURRENT WEAKENED INVERSION...THE WIND
IS ALREADY WEAKER ABOVE THE DECK AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
SURFACE...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT MIXING TO INCREASE IT AS IN PAST DAYS.
THE CURRENT FNMOC WAVE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY SEAS ABOVE 6 FEET...WHICH
IS ABOUT WHAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WIND LOWER LAST
NIGHT THERE MAY BE A FURTHER DROP TODAY. WITH CURRENT WIND LOWER
AND RUC OR AVN GUIDANCE NOT PICKING IT UP TODAY...WILL HAVE TO DROP SCA
FOR NOW.
SYN/MESO...54/HMT...WATKINS
.BRO...NONE.
FXUS74 KFWD 021041 AMD tx