Table 16.  Estimated additions to U.S. reserves using forecast functions derived from the various reserve-growth models for conventional fields located onshore and in State waters of the Lower 48 United States.				


Model	Potential Additions to Oil Reserves (BBO)		Potential Additions to Gas Reserves (TCFG)	
	30-Year Forecast	80-Year Forecast	30-Year Forecast	80-Year Forecast
Arrington Model -1996	38	63	312	786
Mean of U.S. Lower 48 Annual Growth Factors - 1996	49	123	1467	6038
MMS Federal Offshore - 1996	4	4	48	50
NRG U.S. Lower 48 Fields Monotone - 1998	29	43	202	307
U.S. Lower 48 Monotone - 1991	30	42	191	289
U.S. Lower 48 Monotone - 1996	27	40	189	293
				
NRG U.S. Lower 48 Fields Monotone - 1998 (NRG data)*	23	33	160	233
NRG U.S. Lower 48 Reservoirs Monotone - 1998 (NRG data)*	19	27	95	135


*  Thirty- and 80-year forecasts from 1998 of field and reservoir sizes reported in 1998.  All other forecasts are 30 and 80 years from 1996 of field sizes reported in 1996.