FXUS63 KSGF 280643
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
142 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION IS BEING 
ITS USUAL PESKY SELF THIS MORNING WITH A DECAYING MCS A LITTLE 
CLOSER THAN I'D LIKE TO BE SEEING IT AT THIS HOUR. CURRENT REGIONAL 
RADAR LOOP SHOWS ONE OF SEVERAL WELL DEFINED MCVS (MESOSCALE 
CONVECTIVE VORTICES) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN ACROSS 
NW MO. 00Z MESOETA AND EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODEL BOTH HANDLE THIS 
COMPLEX EXTREMELY WELL. ESE TRANSLATION OF THE SOUTHERNMOST VORTEX 
WILL TAKE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM EXTREMELY CLOSE TO MID 
MISSOURI COUNTIES...BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS SHOULD 
ERODE THIS SYSTEM. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE WHETHER MENTION 
OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE REQUIRED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS 
NERN COUNTIES. UPSTREAM 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING CERTAINLY IMPRESSIVE TO 
SAY THE LEAST...HAVING ONE OF THE DEEPEST BOUNDARY LAYERS I'VE EVER 
SEEN THIS FAR EAST (TO NEARLY 650MB). GIVEN MARKEDLY DRIER AIR ABOVE 
MID LEVEL CAP ON LOCAL KSGF SOUNDING...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE 
ZERO IMPACT ON REMAINDER OF CWA.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS CENTRAL MO...MOSTLY 
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE TODAY WITH RECYCLED DRY AIR 
CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE AROUND BROAD HIGH CENTER SHIFTING INTO THE 
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM 
ONGOING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR NOTHING MORE 
THAN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL AIRMASS 
REMAINS BOTH DRY AND CAPPED. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S LOOK 
KOSHER GIVEN ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONGER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST 
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEADING TO 
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN COLORADO. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE 
FORCED AS MODIFIED CANADIAN RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN 
HIGH PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT 
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. 
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY 
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS. INITIAL SE MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME SRLY AND 
POSSIBLY EVEN SWRLY? AS COMPLEX MOVES AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL JET CORE 
NEW CELL GROWTH INFLUENCED BY A 30-40KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET.

EVOLUTION OF ABOVE SYSTEM WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE 
48-72 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY GOING 
FORECAST. THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT CASE FOR THE BAMEX CREW...AS 
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE TWO TO THREE DAYS OF DIURNAL REGENERATION AS 
IT EVOLVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. ETA AND SURPRISINGLY GFS MODEL QPF 
HANDLE THIS EVOLUTION AMAZINGLY WELL (MAYBE TOO WELL?). CURRENT 
PROJECTION WOULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO REACH WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY 
NIGHT...WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES RETRIGGERING A BETTER CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY CWA-WIDE AS ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE 
ARRIVES AND BEGINS TO STALL OUT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS 
DOWN A BIT AS WELL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.EXTENDED (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO IS LOOKING EVEN MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT...WITH A 
LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVING DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED ALONG 
THE YUCATAN. SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO 
GRADUALLY INTERACT WITH REMNANT SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS NOW SETTLED 
INTO THE GULF. THE UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT OVER THAT REGION REMAINS 
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD HAVE SERIOUS 
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST MID WEEK SHOULD SUCH A SYSTEM DEVELOP. 
500MB TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL 
BECOME CUTOFF JUST TO THE SOUTH AS BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE COUPLET 
BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN 
QUADRANTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
WARM-PROCESS RAINFALLS OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY MORE 
LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH. INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE DOES SUGGEST 
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REGARDLESS. WILL 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE WHETHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE 
REQUIRED AFTER MONDAY.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

.SGF...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

$$

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