AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH FORECAST POPS AND WEAK BNDRY IN THE AREA...
NEW RUCII FAIRLY GOOD IN HOLDING ONTO WEAK BNDRY IN THE AREA THIS
MRNG THEN MOVG NORTH BY MIDDAY. OF MORE CONCERN IS SGFNT UPPER WAVE
MVG THRU SRN WY THIS MORNING. ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE
INTO THE PLAINS BY TONIGHT. IF ONGOING CONVECTION DIES OUT
SOON...ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE TIME TO RECOVER AND RESPOND TO HIGHER
LEVEL OF INSTABILITY WITH APPCHG WAVE TNGT. REMNANTS OF CONVECTION
MOST PROBLEMATIC FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES. WILL GO CHANCE POP THIS AREA
ALL DAY...BUT MAINTAIN AFTN CHC POPS OVER ERN PTN OF CWA. ALL AREAS
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC TNGT AS WAVE MVS NEAR AREA. NORTHEAST SFC
FLOW AS DEPICTED BY ETA AND TO SOME EXTENT THE AVM FOR SATURDAY MAY
PRECULDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...BUT JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT A CONTD CHC FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NGM NUMBERS.
.TOP...NONE
ks
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BETWEEN 05-07Z OFFSHORE NEAR CHANDELEUR
ISLANDS AND CONTINUE AT 0735Z JUST OFFSHORE OF COASTAL MS COUNTIES.
ANOTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG N COAST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THESE APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVING E TO W FROM THE
DECAYING NE GULF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. COVERAGE OF STORMS OFF
COAST OF MS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING WITH STORMS ALIGNING THEMSELVES
ALONG SURFACE REL VORTICITY COUPLET FROM 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS BUT HAVE
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. GOOD THING THEY ARE
OVER THE GULF BUT THIS MAY GIVE CLUES FOR STORMS LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVN IS POOR IN INITIALIZATION OF 500 MB VORT MAX IN NE TX AND IN NE
GULF. ETA VERIFIES WELL WITH 06Z PANEL OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE WITH GOOD CONTINUITY FROM RUC THROUGH 18Z AND THEN FEATURES
THEREAFTER. FOR 6-18 HRS ETA/RUC SHOW SCENARIO OF PAST SEVERAL DAYS
IN SE WITH VORT MAX INITIATING EARLY MORNING THUNDER AND WIDESPREAD
THUNDER DURING DAY AS SEA BREEZE IGNITES IN LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
CROSS SECTION OF 00Z ETA SHOWS MSY/ASD/MCB SATURATED THROUGH 200 MB
WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH 48 HRS. WILL GO WITH UNQUALIFIED 50
POPS (MAY BE A LITTLE LOW...WILL LEAVE UPDATE FOR DAY SHIFT) WITH 20
POPS TONIGHT AND 30 POPS SAT NIGHT WITH SOME HINT OF SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT
OF 700 MB OMEGA FIELD. WILL GO WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AS ETA 12Z
FRI SHOWS 1/2 TO 1 INCH BULLSEYE OF PRECIP NEAR GREENVILLE MS BUT
LOOKING AT VORTICITY FIELDS THIS COULD EASILY BE DISPLACED SE INTO
MS CWA NEAR MCCOMB WHICH RECEIVED 2.6 INCHES YESTERDAY.
IN NW LA HAVE CONCERNS ON POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DEVELOPMENT OF MCS TONIGHT. SATURATED COLUMN OF AIR REMAINS ACROSS
STATE WITH 200 MB TROUGH NEARING KSHV/KPOE AREA THIS EVENING AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BLOCKED BY
EAST COAST SYSTEM. OVER PAST THREE DAYS THIS HAS BEEN THE KEY TO
LONG LIVED AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS NE TX AND OK. ETA AND NGM BRING
500 MB N-S VORT FIELD INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU.
WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE AS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN HARD TO BEAT.
LIKE THE AVN HIGHER POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SO WILL DEFER TO
THOSE VALUES AND THEN NGM SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHICH HAS HIGHER
VALUES.
IN 48-72 HOURS AVN THROWS OUT INTERESTING 500 MB SOLUTION WITH 500
MB VORTICITY BULLSEYE OVER KMEM THROUGH PERIOD WHICH SEEMS TO PHASE
WITH DELMARVA 500 MB LOW DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS SOLN HOLDS NE LA WILL
HAVE PROBLEMS. INTERESTING THAT ETA 48 HOURS SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF
500 MB VORT NEAR MEM. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WILL KEEP EXTENDED AS
IS.
THANKS FOR AFDS/COORDINATION LCH AND SHV. PRELIM NUMBERS
SHV 87/68/87/69 5443 MLU 89/68/88/70 5443 LCH 86/72/87/72 5242
BTR 89/70/89/70 5253 MCB 90/68/89/68 5253 BIX 88/73/88/73 5253
.NEW...NONE.
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE
13
la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
SHRA/TSRA ARE THE FCST PROBLEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
WAS A BUSY LATE AFTN WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS GOING SVR IN A SMALL
AREA OF DICKINSON/MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE/DELTA COUNTIES. 2 CELLS
DEVELOPED CLASSIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN REFLECTIVITY PATTERN AND
HAD IMPRESSIVE SHEARS. FORTUNATELY...CELLS FOR THE MOST PART PASSED
OVER SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS. LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...LIKELY
COMBINATION STATIONARY FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AIDED STORM ROTATIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NCNTRL WI
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY TO NEAR KIMT AND KMQT. ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW...N/NE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT ACROSS W LK
SUPERIOR...AND KIWD TEMP HAS DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S.
DESPITE WEAK LOW PASSING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT...FRONT
WILL ONLY EDGE EAST A LITTLE. THIS A RESULT OF UPPER FLOW REMAINING
PARALLEL TO FRONT...LACK OF PRESSURE RISES TO THE WEST AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH ARE MAINLY NE TO THE WEST OF FRONT. WITH FRONT MOVING
VERY SLOWLY...RELUCTANT TO END PRECIP OVER MUCH OF FA. FAR WEST
COUNTIES ARE IN BEST POSITION FOR DRY OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC
DESCENT BEGINNING AS SHOWN ON 00Z RUC. WILL HOWEVER MENTION DRIZZLE
AND FOG WITH FLOW UPSLOPE OFF A FOGGY LAKE SUPERIOR. 00Z RUC SHOWS
ISENTROPIC DESCENT SLOWLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH QVEC DIVG AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONV. ON UPDATE WILL GO WITH
DIMINISHING TREND FOR REMAINDER OF FA...EXCEPT E WHICH REMAINS AHEAD
OF FRONT THRU NIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS AND MAKE
SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.
.MQT...NONE.
ROLFSON
FXUS63 KAPX 120205 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
UPR LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG
W COAST AND BROAD HI PRS OVR E COAST. DEEP UPR LO CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE N CANADA...WITH SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SW INTO NW MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SW FLOW PERSISTS OVR UPR GREAT LKS AND CWA WITH
QUASI STNRY FRNT EXTNDNG NE FROM SFC LO NEAR EAU TO EGV-MQT. NMRS
SHRA AND RA ON W SIDE OF BDRY N OF SFC LOW IN REGION OF H85-5 QVECT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF H5 VORT MAX OVER NW WI. TO EAST OF BNDRY SFC
DWPTS OF 65-70F PERSIST OVR CNTRL AND E CWA WITH 15Z RUC CAPTURING H85
THETA-E MAX OF 330K+ EXTNDNG N FM GRB-MQT BY 00Z...INCREASING LO LVL
CONVERGENCE AND H3-2 DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF JET MAX OVR HUDSONS BAY.
WITH VRY HI PCP H20...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE INDICES...APPRCHNG H5
VORT MAX FROM SW...AND TMPS APPRCHNG CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF AROUND
80...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR WI AND MV NE INTO CWA LATE THIS
AFT...WITH TRAINING POTENTIAL AND VRY HVY RA. IR IMAGERY ALSO
DEPICTING COOLING TOPS OVR N WI LAST SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF H5 VORT
MAX.
AFT 06Z TNGT...H5 VORT MAX AND SFC LOW MVS NE ACRS LK SUPERIOR OUT OF
CWA. ANOTHER H5 VORT MAX DEPICTED BY ETA/NGM OVER E KS APPROACHES E
CWA FM SW BETWN 12-18Z WITH ETA DEPICTING ASSOCIATED REGION OF H85-5
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE. WITH SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO EARLY WILL
RETAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER E CWA SAT. OVR W CWA HOWEVER...DRYING...
WEAK QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC DECENT SUPPORT
STABILIZATION AND CLEARING. NGM FWC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
SAT NIGHT ETA/NGM DEPICT H5 SHORTWAVE/ASSOC SFC LOW MVING E ACROSS
ONTARIO WITH MSTR REMAIN N OF CWA. AVN SUGGESTS DRY SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY WITH CLD FRNTL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
WITH SYSTEM...SO EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP. FWC SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
LONGER RANGE DOMINATED BY DEEPENING UPR LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY AND
IMPRESSIVE CAA OVR N GRT LKS. TMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVG THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH N FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE CROSSES CWA ON MONDAY...GIVING
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REINTRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HOWEVER DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR TUES/WED AND H10-5 THICKNESS VALUES DECREASING TO NR
540DAM. ECMWF ADMITTEDLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING CANADIAN
VORTEX...BUT SFC LO DEVELOPMENT AND RETURN FLOW OVR C PLAINS BY 12Z
WED LKS OVR DONE AND TOO FAR N. FAVOR MRF ATTM WITH SUPPORT FM NEW
AVN.
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KDTX 111910 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1205 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWS NRLY STNRY FNT STRETCHING NE FM LO PRES OVR SE
MN-EGV-IMT-JUST E OF MQT. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET ARND
LO PRES. 12Z H5-3 FLOW SWLY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO BNDRY. WV LOOP/12Z
RAOBS/12Z RUC H5 ANAL SHOW SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO LIFTING
NEWD THRU UPR MS VALLEY IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX ACRS WRN ONTARIO. DEEP
SSWLY FLOW E OF MAIN TROF AXIS ACRS NW HAS ADVCTD COPIOUS MSTR NWD
INTO GRT LKS...AND 12Z PW ARND 1.5" (CLOSE TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL) AT
GRB AND MPX. SFC DWPTS NR 70 ON WARM SIDE OF BNDRY WITH H85 DWPTS
ARND 12C. 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MRNG RESTRICTED TO
W SIDE OF SFC FNT TO NE OF LO POSITION...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z
RUC ANAL H10-5 MSTR CNVGC. LOTS OF BRKS IN CLDS OVR NRN WI/ERN CWA
ON WARM SIDE OF BNDRY PER VSBL SAT PIX/SFC OBS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOTS OF ST/FOG PREDOMINATE ON COOL SIDE OF FNT.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA DVLPMNT AND HVY RA.
12Z RUC INDICATES SHRTWV/SFC LO WL LIFT NE TDAY AND REACH THE WRN
CWA DURG EARLY EVNG. XPCT SFC BNDRY TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD DURG DAY AS LO
PRES APRCHS FM SW. RUC INDICATES INCRSG H10-5 MSTR CNVGC AND H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC OVR ESPECIALLY THE WRN HALF OF CWA AS SHRTWV APRCHS
DURG DAY. THESE DYNAMICS WL PHASE WITH INCRSG INSTABILITY RESULTING
FM SOLAR HTG OF HUMID AIRMASS IN NRN WI/ECNTRL CWA. XPCT NMRS SHRA/
TSRA TO DVLP THESE AREAS DURG AFTN. HIER STABILITY XPCTD OVR FAR W
ON COOL SIDE OF FNT AND OVR FAR E DOWNWIND OF MODIFYING INFLUENCE OF
LK MI WL LIMIT TSRA POTENTIAL THERE EVEN THOUGH STEADIEST RA WL CONT
OVR W ON COOL SIDE OF BNDRY. MODIFIED 12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS CAPE OF 2100
J/KG FOR 80/69 WITH ONLY SML LO LVL CAP THAT COULD BE BKN BY FNT/LK
BRZ BNDRY. GIVEN RELATIVELY LGT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALF (H5 WND NR
30 KTS) AND HI FRZLVL (>13K)/WBZ (NR 12K)...SEVERE WX CHECKLIST SUGS
NON SVR TSRA. BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL LGT WNDS ALF PARALLEL TO BNDRY AND
HI PW INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HVY RA WITH CNVCTN MOVG OVR SAME
SPOT. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF STREAMS WHERE HVY RA FELL YDAY NOT OUT
OF QUESTION.
AREAS OF FOG AND VERY COOL TEMPS WL LIKELY PERSIST OVR NW ZNS THIS
AFTN WITH CONTD ELY FLOW THERE TO LEFT OF PROJECTED LO TRACK.
.MQT...NONE.
KC
FXUS63 KAPX 111519 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1117 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING ACROSS FAR NE LOWER MI FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH NO UPSTREAM ACTIVITY FIRING YET PER LATEST BASE
REF FROM GRB AND MQT. MODIFIED APX MORNING SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES OF
2100...LI'S OF -5 AND TT'S OF 50 FOR THE AFTERNOON. THETA E RIDGE IS
STILL OVERHEAD BUT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCE AS YESTERDAY. VSBL SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM APN TO HTL ARE CLEARING OUT
NICELY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AGAIN
TODAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE FOCUSING MECHANISM.
EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BIT
LATER DUE TO SLOW WARMUP VIA ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. LAKE BREEZES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND SINCE SOME DELAY IN
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WILL DROP POPS TO SCT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM SSM TO PLN TO TVC WILL SEE SOME MINOR
UPPER FORCING CONTRIBUTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET. RUC SUGGESTS SOME 850 TO 500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE THROUGH NRN LAKE MI TO NEAR SSM...BUT NOT UNTIL BY 21Z.
MID LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST...SO NOT ALOT OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
AVAILABLE TO CREATE NEGATIVE BUOYANCY FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. FZL
LEVEL WILL RISE TO AROUND 14 KFT WITH WET BULB HEIGHT OF OVER 11
KFT...SO SVR HAIL IS ALSO NOT LIKELY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO FRESHEN WIND WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MENTION
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE LATE FOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
.APX...NONE.
EME
FXUS63 KDTX 111514 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS EVENTUAL DEMISE OF PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE AT 1900 UTC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN WHICH FELL OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MUCH OF TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL KEEP ONTO SOME SCATTERED POPS IN NW
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NE MN...BUT THE PCPN SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THAN EARLIER TODAY.
ETA/NGM/AVN HAD DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...
WITH EACH MODEL NOT INDICATING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO NE MN WITH T
THIS EVENT. THE RUC HAD DONE THE BEST JOB THIS MORNING...AND NOW
SEEMS TO BE ANALYZING CLOSE TO THE ETA. WILL GO WITH THE ETA FOR THE
DETAILS...WHICH IS HANDLING THE FEATURES VERY WELL RIGHT NOW.
THE FIRST FEATURE...A VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN
WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK VORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. NICE CIRCULATION
SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SO HAVE EITHER HUNG ON TO THE POPS
OR BROUGHT IN A SMALL CHANCE LATER IN THE NIGHT. THINK THE SHORTWAVE
WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HANGING ON AROUND THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/NW WISCONSIN AREA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE FROM NVA SHOULD YIELD
A DECENT DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT FEATURE...A STRONG VORT AND UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE EXTREME
NORTH AS THE COLD POOL SLIDES ALONG THE BORDER.
FWC/FAN TEMPS IN THE BALL PARK...AND HAVE WENT WITH FAIRLY CLOSELY.
.DLH...NONE.
DAP
FXUS63 KMPX 112002 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z NOW NORTHEAST OF KEAU WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAILING FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR SE MN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES PRETTY SHARP VORT MAX ALONG THE IA/NE BORDER MOVING
NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS NOW BACK ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS NW IA. ETA/NGM/RUC SEEM TO BE HAVING A LITTLE
TROUBLE WITH THIS PARTICULAR VORT AND PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON A VORT
OVER WESTERN SD. BELIEVE THIS VORT WILL KEEP MARCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH 03Z WHICH WILL PLACE THE SOUTHERN CWA UNDER INCREASING PVA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY TONIGHT WITH POSITIVE CAPE AND SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE LI/S. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY
TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRMONT TO RED WING TO
LADYSMITH. WILL ALSO HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE TWIN
CITIES FOR EARLY TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE NW CWA.
SOUNDING DATA INDICATES AS THE 700 MB TROF MOVES INTO WI LATE
TONIGHT THAT DRYING WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA. WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND
CLOUDY SKIES OF TODAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN. WILL MENTION
THIS IN THE ZONES.
SATURDAY LOOKING BETTER THAN BEFORE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. FAIR WEATHER THE RULE
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH. WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER NOW LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE MRF GUIDANCE CONSIDERING
IT'S JUNE AND THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
.MSP...NONE.
HILTBRAND
FXUS63 KMPX 111530 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1029 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING KEAU AT 15Z WITH TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING JUST WEST OF KRST TO SW IA. SURFACE LOW AND 700
MB LOW THAT IS OVERHEAD WILL BE HEADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI BY EVENING. 12Z RUC AND ETA SHOWING SINKING MOTION NOW
OVER THE WESTERN CWA SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY 12/00Z.
EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MN CWA WITH
A CHANCE POPS OVER THE WI CWA.
WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF NE AND KS WILL MOVE INTO SW MN BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE STATE
NOW. LITTLE INSTABILITY PROGGED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. TREND ON CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTNING DATA OVER
EASTERN NE IS WARMING/DIMINISHING RESPECTIVELY. WILL LEAVE THE
CHANCE POPS ALONE OVER THE SOUTHERN MN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE OR WHERE YOU ARE WITH RESPECT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
KAQP IN THE FAR WEST ALREADY NEAR 70 WHILE KEAU ALREADY 70.
.MSP...NONE.
HILTBRAND
FXUS63 KDLH 110916 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHC AND LOCATION OF PRECIP...
...SYNOPSIS...LATEST SFC MAP HAD THE SFC FNT N OF STJ MO AND SFC HI
PRES NOSING INTO NEB. DESPITE LO LVL NE WNDS...ARND 4K FT...THE
WNDS BECOME SW. THE H85 BNDY IS IN SE NEB AND WRN IA BASED ON
PROFILER WNDS. LO CLDS COVER MUCH OF ERN NEB...HOWEVER...THE 88D IS
NO LONGER PICKING UP ANY RETURNS IN THE CWFA. ONE DISTURBANCE WAS
LOCATED IN WRN IA AND ANOTHER IN WRN KS/SW NE. THE CONVECTION IN SW
NEB WAS SHOWING A TENDENCY TO MOVE PRIMARILY E WITH STGR STORMS IN
NW KS. THE LO LVL JET IN W KS WAS ALSO AIDING THESE STORMS.
...FORECAST...THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN ALOFT/SFC AND PRECIP PATTERN. TIMING OF THE PRECIP IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT...AND BOTH THE ETA/RUC SUGGEST A CHC FOR PRECIP IN
ERN NEB TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND MOVING OUT EARLY SAT. LO LVL WAA IS
TAKING PLACE IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. UPR LEVEL DIV IS
GREATEST OVR CNTRL NEB AND KS AT 18Z AND BY 00Z IS GREATEST IS OK WITH
A SECOND AREA IN ERN NEB AND WRN IA. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD ENHANCE THE PRECIP OVR SW OK/NE TX...WHILE
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SHOULD AID PRECIP DEV ERN NEB AND
WRN IA TAF AND TON. HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS FM KS...NE TO SW AND CNTRL
IA LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENT FCST INCLUDES A CHC FOR PRECIP FOR SAT
AND IS SUGGESTED MORE ON THE AVN/NGM THEN THE ETA.
H85 TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S AND WITH QUITE A FEW CLDS AND
PRECIP...TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AOB GUID. ALL MODELS SUGGEST WRMR
TEMPS FOR SAT.
.OMA...NONE.
ZAPOTOCNY
FXUS63 KLBF 110830 ne
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
845 PM PDT FRI JUN 11 1999
WEAK SHORT WAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING
WORKING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS INTO CENTRAL NV. AHEAD
OF THIS SHORT WAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG MAINLY THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LIGHTNING NOTED OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY
EARLIER. HIGH THIN CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING.
UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE TO THE NE. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW IS DEEPER TO THE NORTH. 00Z RUC AND NEW ETA KEEP LOW
MEAN RH VALUES OVER NV TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST OVER EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS. WITH LOSS OF HEATING CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SHOULD END.
HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL BE ALL THAT IS LEFT BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA. CURRENT ZONES HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
EAST CENTRAL AFTER SUNSET. EAST CENTRAL HAS MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FEEL THIS HANDLES SITUATION AND PLAN NO FURTHER UPDATES
THIS EVENING. FAUCETTE
.EKO...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 112153 nv
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
859 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVR MUCH OF ERN NC THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES. LAST VIS SAT IMAG OF THE DAY AND
CURRENT IR IMAG SHOW BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING W OVR THE OUTER
BANKS AND PAMLICO SOUND. WILL ADJUST ZONES THERE TO REFLECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TNT WITH CURRENT TEMPS ON TRACK.
BELIEVE RUC TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS EVENING. BOTH RUC AND
MESOETA MODELS INITIALIZED WELL PICKING UP ON SFC AND UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE WITH VORTS EVIDENT ON THE N AND S SIDE OF UPPER LOW. HWVR
SUTTLE DIFFERENCE IN RUC WITH HOW IT HANDLES SFC WINDS AND MVMT OF
UPPER VORTS. RUC PMSL AND SFC WINDS VERIFYING THE BEST AS OF 00Z.
MODEL XSCT KEEPS SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU 06Z.
AFTER O6Z LOW LEVEL MEAN RH SLOWLY INCREASES SOME WITH WEAK OMEGA
EVIDENT. WITH THIS SAID WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AROUND SUNRISE AS MSTR CARRIED IN ON NE WINDS GETS
TRAPPED UNDER THERMAL AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CLOUDS WILL LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN THRU THE DAY.
CURRENT CWF ON TRACK. WILL BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE IN WATERS FCST TO
REFLECT STRONGER WINDS REPORTED BY BUOYS. SEAS ALREADY AT 6 FT AT
DSLN7 AND 5 FT AT FPSN7. PRES GRAD WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN TNT AS SFC LOW
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE W. WITH 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THRU TNT...CONDITIONS OUT TO 20 NM SAT AM WILL BE RATHER BUMPY WITH
6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.
.MHX...SCA FROM S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO N OF CAPE HATTERAS.
ORROCK
FXUS62 KILM 111811 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
13Z HAND/MSAS SFC ANALYSES & LAMP STREAMLINES FAIL TO SHOW A CLEAR
CDFNT ANYWHERE NEAR THE AREA. RADAR/SAT PIX SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SRN GEORGETOWN/WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES & EXTENDING OFF THE CST WHERE
SOME SLGT CONVECTION HAS FIRED. 2ND CLOUD LINE MVG INTO NRN FA
ASSOCIATED W/ VORTLOBE FROM UPR LO OFFSHORE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.
MSAS LOOP SHOWS HI PRES BUILDING NICELY DOWN THE CST. BUT MTRS SHOW
PLENTY OF LO CLOUDS EXTENDING TO OUR N BUT CLEARING BEGINNING TO
WORK ITS WAY FROM THE NE CORNER OF NC. PRESENT MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA
WOULD GET IT INTO OUR NRN FA BY LATE AFTN AT EARLIEST. 09Z RUC2 T-
SECS SHOW SLOW DECREASE IN LO-LVL MOISTURE THRU THE AFTN. WILL DECIDE
AT PRESS TIME WHETHER TO CHANGE FCST TO DECREASING CLOUDS LATE OR
STAY W/ MOCLDY. A FEW RW OVER THE EXTREME SRN FA BUT W/ NERLY FLOW
NOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL THE POPS
FROM THE STRAND.
TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATER OBS.
CWF: FPSN7 WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA CRITERIA W/ COASTAL REPORTS
SHOWING WINDS GETTING CLOSE. SEAS NOW 5 FT AT FPSN7 & W/ NERLY FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE TO 6 FT THIS AFTN. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR WATERS N OF
CAPE FEAR. WILL BUMP UP WINDS FOR SC WATERS BUT STAY BELOW SCA.
.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC.
LGE
FXUS62 KMHX 111406 nc
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
CURRENT RADAR LOOP INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO SKIRT FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC INDICATES SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAXES WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS
THESE AREAS AND DROP THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
UPDATED ZONES OUT MOMENTARILY.
33
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KOUN 111533 ok
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1010 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS COVERING THE DELMARVA...BUT
INDICATIONS OF DRYING OUT. RUC SKEW T SHOWS DECREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO THE ONLY CHANGE THAT I WILL MAKE
IS TO INSERT THE WORD "BECOMING" IN FRONT OF SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE DELMARVA. REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE IS OKAY.
REPORTS FROM THE CAPE MAY-LEWES DE FERRY SHOW 2 FT SEAS...SO MARINE
FORECASTER WILL BE TAKING DOWN SMALL CRAFT ON THE LOWER BAY...BUT
STILL KEEP THEM UP ON THE OCEAN.
.PHI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE.
MR
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE TO USERS OF THIS PRODUCT - EFFECTIVE 9 AM EDT JUNE 15 1999...
THE STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MOUNT HOLLY...NEW JERSEY WILL BECOME AN AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION...WITH A NEW WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
(WMO) HEADER AND NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE (NWWS) PRODUCT IDENTIFIER.
PLEASE TAKE THE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO ENSURE YOUR CONTINUED RECEIPT OF
THIS PRODUCT.
WMO HEADER FXUS71 KPHI FXUS61 KPHI
NWWS ID PHLSFDPHL PHLAFDPHI
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS CHANGE...PLEASE CONTACT
METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE GARY SZATKOWSKI AT 609-261-6600.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
pa
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
855 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
LATEST RUC INDICATING MAIN AREA OF PVA OVR GA MOVG NWWRD AND STAYING ON
W SIDE OF SAV RVR INTO ERLY SAT AM. RADAR LOOP ATTM SHOWING CLUSTER OF
SHWRS PUSHING WWRD THRU CNTRL MIDLANDS INCLUDING CAE VCNTY. CONVECTION
MORE WDLY SCTD OVR CSRA. XPCT MOST ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNITE
SO WL KEEP SML POPS FOR ERLY TONITE FOR MIDLANDS AND CSRA ZONES. WL ALSO
ADD MENTION OF PSBL PTCHY ERLY AM FOG FOR ALL ZONES SINCE LOW-LVL MSTR
STILL PLENTIFUL. WL MAKE SLGT TWEAK TO CSRA FCST LOWS AS WELL. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.
.CAE...NONE.
BC
FXUS72 KCAE 112312 AMD sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOWING PROMISE BUT MOISTURE-LADEN EASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN MOST OF DAY. COOL AIR HAS NOT REACHED AREA
YET AND NOT LIKELY TO DURING THE DAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM UPPER 60S IN NE ZONES TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DO NOT
THINK MID 80S REACHABLE BUT CERTAINLY WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF 80S.
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. RUC SLOWLY
BRINGS DRIER AIR TO FOOTHILLS BUT THIS TOO WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
TONIGHT. BEST BET IS TO KEEP CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
FORECAST. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH AND WEST WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH NO SOURCE OF LIFT...WILL BRING POPS DOWN.
MOUNTAINS GETTING SOME SUN AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE COULD SPARK A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS IN CHANCE GROUP
FOR HIGH COUNTRY BUT WILL DROP OR AT LEAST REDUCE TO LOW CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. DELGADO
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS62 KCHS 111359 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1043 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
WATOR VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z ANALYSIS INDICATED UPPER TROF W/TWO
EMBEDDED AREAS OF PVA MOVG THRU. LATE THIS MORNING...THESE AREAS OF
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WERE INTERACTING WITH AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS CAUSING SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
C AND NC SD. THE LATEST RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOW A REGION OF PVA AND
MID LEVEL LIFT MOVING E THRU OUR CWA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THE DRY
AIRMASS AS INDICATED BY 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES
OVER. A COMBINATION OF A LITTLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND/OR C SD BY
MID AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF TSTORMS FOR CENTRAL SD
AND NC SD AND INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL. INSERTED INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR THE EAST AND LOWERED
TEMPS ACROSS CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES.
.ABR...NONE.
GUERRERO
FXUS63 KFSD 111530 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1015 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
WATOR VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z ANALYSIS INDICATED UPPER TROF W/TWO
EMBEDDED AREAS OF PVA MOVG THRU. LATE THIS MORNING...THESE AREAS OF
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WERE INTERACTING WITH AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS CAUSING SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
C AND NC SD. THE LATEST RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOW A REGION OF PVA AND
MID LEVEL LIFT MOVING E THRU OUR CWA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THE DRY
AIRMASS AS INDICATED BY 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES
OVER. A COMBINATION OF A LITTLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD BY MID
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF TSTORMS FOR CENTRAL SD AND
GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTH CENTRAL. LEFT THE EAST ALONE.
.ABR...NONE.
GUERRERO
FXUS63 KUNR 110902 sd
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1020 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
AT LEAST 2 OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING
WITH A THIRD BOUNDARY WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE FAIRLY WEAK
CAP. 3H 12Z ANALYSIS AND 12Z RUC BOTH INDICATE 60+ KNOT JET MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION (ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY). THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
.LBB...NONE.
MM
FXUS64 KCRP 111510 AMD tx
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
945 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999
CLOUD STREETS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP ARE SHOWING THE STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SFC THIS MORNING. OUR CAPE IS A LITTLE
LARGER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BUT PW VALUES AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME. OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF TCU AND
SHOWERS PREVAILS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF LAREDO BUT AM UNSURE OF THE
AFFECTS TO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ETA FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A VORT
CENTER MOVING EAST INTO EAST TEXAS WHILE IT SWINGS SOME WEAK
VORTICITY ADVECTION ONTO THE MIDDLE COAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
SAME SYSTEM. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
LIFT OVER THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. KENEDY COUNTY ALREADY IS
SHOWING A SMALL SHOWER BUT CU OUTSIDE IS LOOKING RATHER WEAK AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KNOTS WHICH SHOULD HAMPER ANY ORGANIZED SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT FEEL THAT THEY WILL BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE ZONES. WILL
HOWEVER MENTION ISOLATED POPS FOR KENEDY COUNTY. WILL UP WINDS JUST
A BIT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KNOTS ALL NIGHT AND WILL
THUS KEEP THE 4 FOOT SEAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE.
63
.BRO...NONE.
FXUS64 KHGX 111451 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
910 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
HIGH PRS HAS RIDGED INTO VA. SFC WINDS HAVE GONE VERY LIGHT NE-E.
WESTWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR HAS PROBABLY ENDED FOR THE NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS...21Z RUC AND 18Z ETA ALL TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLDS CONT TO ERODE FROM THE EAST AND ARE
CONFINED MAINLY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. THE
CURRENT ZONE GROUPING IN THE EAST HANDLES THIS WELL. WILL EXPAND THE
LOW CLOUDS FURTHER WEST WITH THE CONT LIGHT E-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT &
WILL PROB ADD PATCHY FOG. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S...AND
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL RAISE MINS TONIGHT.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
JJ
FXUS61 KAKQ 120109 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
250 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999
FCST CHALLENGE THIS MRNG HOW TO TINKER WITH LOW POPS. IN SHRT TERM
FAVORED LOCATION WOULD STILL BE OVR SRN FA. SYNOPTIC BNDRY ON 06Z
SFC ANLYS TOUGH TO DEFINE BUT WOULD APPR TO EXTEND NWD INTO FA FM
LOW JUST E OF KSTJ-KMCI ALG KICL-KAMW-KDEH LN. MSAS MSTR CNVGNC
AXIS SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL SO AREAS ALG AND S BY ISSUANCE TIME WOULD
SEEM TO BE LOCATIONS TO LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR TDA WHICH IS SIMILAR
TO SPC SLGT RISK OTLK. MESOSCALE BNDRY SEEMS TO BE PUSHED INTO WRN
IL FOR TIME BEING AHD OF MESOHIGH JUST N OF KOTM.
FAVORED MDL SOLN AFT TDA DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH WITH VERY SUBTLE
FEATURES. NGM/AVN PUSH SFC THETA-E CNVGNC MAX S AND E OF FA BY 00Z
TNGT BUT ETA HANGS WEAK AXIS BACK ACRS SRN FA. THIS SEEMS LIKE
BETTER SOLN SINCE NRN END OF FNT WL HAVE BETTER PUSH AHD OF SYS ALG
US/CAN BORDER. QUICK LOOK AT 03Z AND PART OF 06Z RUC SUPPORT THIS
TOO. THUS WL KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR SERN SXNS THRU TNGT WHERE
THETA-E CNVGNC AXIS ACTUALLY HANGS THRU 48HRS ON NWRN END OF BROAD
LOW LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT DVLPS ACRS SRN PLAINS. ATTM FEEL
THAT ENOUGH OF RDG WL BUILD INTO FA TO PRECLUDE ADDING POPS TO
SUN/SUN NGT. CANNOT FIND ENOUGH SFC BASED CNVGNC OR DYNAMIC FORCING
TO BUCK CONTINUITY ATTM ALTHOUGH THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. EVEN
THOUGH CAPES BLO 1000 J/KG BY 00Z MON...ETA SHOWS LTL CIN OR CAP SO
IF ANY BNDRY IS LEFT OVR...SCT TSTMS COULD DVLP AGN.
AMT OF SUN WL AGN PLAY A BIG ROLE IN TEMPS AND GIVES BUST
POTENTIAL. FWC NUMBERS SEEM A BIT HIGH SPCLLY BHND FNT WHERE CU
SHOULD REDVLP EVEN IF THEY DO START OUT WITH SOME SUN. THUS WL GO
WITH COMPROMISE NW AND CLOSER TO WRMR FWCS SE WHICH PERFORMED WELL
YDA. FAN MIN NUMBERS SEEM TOO COOL FA WIDE SO WL STAY NR FWCS.
.DSM...NONE
SMALL
FXUS63 KDMX 120220 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
SHRA/TSRA ARE THE FCST PROBLEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
WAS A BUSY LATE AFTN WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS GOING SVR IN A SMALL
AREA OF DICKINSON/MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE/DELTA COUNTIES. 2 CELLS
DEVELOPED CLASSIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN REFLECTIVITY PATTERN AND
HAD IMPRESSIVE SHEARS. FORTUNATELY...CELLS FOR THE MOST PART PASSED
OVER SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS. LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...LIKELY
COMBINATION STATIONARY FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AIDED STORM ROTATIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NCNTRL WI
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY TO NEAR KIMT AND KMQT. ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW...N/NE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT ACROSS W LK
SUPERIOR...AND KIWD TEMP HAS DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S.
DESPITE WEAK LOW PASSING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT...FRONT
WILL ONLY EDGE EAST A LITTLE. THIS A RESULT OF UPPER FLOW REMAINING
PARALLEL TO FRONT...LACK OF PRESSURE RISES TO THE WEST AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH ARE MAINLY NE TO THE WEST OF FRONT. WITH FRONT MOVING
VERY SLOWLY...RELUCTANT TO END PRECIP OVER MUCH OF FA. FAR WEST
COUNTIES ARE IN BEST POSITION FOR DRY OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC
DESCENT BEGINNING AS SHOWN ON 00Z RUC. WILL HOWEVER MENTION DRIZZLE
AND FOG WITH FLOW UPSLOPE OFF A FOGGY LAKE SUPERIOR. 00Z RUC SHOWS
ISENTROPIC DESCENT SLOWLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH QVEC DIVG AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONV. ON UPDATE WILL GO WITH
DIMINISHING TREND FOR REMAINDER OF FA...EXCEPT E WHICH REMAINS AHEAD
OF FRONT THRU NIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS AND MAKE
SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.
.MQT...NONE.
ROLFSON
FXUS63 KAPX 120205 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NICE LOOKING SWIRL OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE/UPPER CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETROGRADING THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY W TODAY TO A POSITION IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. THE MODELS THEN MOVE THE LOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE SHOWN WELL OFF THE COAST BY 00Z
MONDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW SHOULD MOVE JUST CLOSE ENUF TO
KEEP THE WESTERN CAROLINAS UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE RIDGING AT
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
EXPECT THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RESULT. MODELS (IN
PARTICULAR THE ETA) SHOW ALL THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL GA SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO REMAINS OF OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER LOW OVER N FL. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS...KGSP RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM THE NE GA PIEDMONT...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...TO THE SC MIDLANDS. 03Z RUC SHOWS
LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY 12Z WHILE ETA SHOWS
THE NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP TO OUR S BY 12Z. WILL PLAN ON THE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BY 12Z BUT WILL CONSIDER MENTIONING EARLY MORNING PRECIP IN
SOUTHERN FRINGE ZONES BASED ON TRENDS AT FCST ISSUANCE.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE NE. TONITE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMP GUIDANCE
IS SIMILAR IN MOST PLACES AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. THE ONLY MAJOR
DIFFERENCE IS THE HIGH TEMP FOR SUNDAY AT GSP WHERE FWC IS A CATEGORY
HIGHER THAN THE FAN. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND STICK WITH THE MID
80S CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE UPSTATE ZONES FOR SUNDAY.
AVL 78/56/80 100
CLT 84/62/85 -00
GSP 84/63/85 100
.GSP...NONE.
MOORE
FXUS62 KGSP 120345 sc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
855 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
LATEST RUC INDICATING MAIN AREA OF PVA OVR GA MOVG NWWRD AND STAYING ON
W SIDE OF SAV RVR INTO ERLY SAT AM. RADAR LOOP ATTM SHOWING CLUSTER OF
SHWRS PUSHING WWRD THRU CNTRL MIDLANDS INCLUDING CAE VCNTY. CONVECTION
MORE WDLY SCTD OVR CSRA. XPCT MOST ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNITE
SO WL KEEP SML POPS FOR ERLY TONITE FOR MIDLANDS AND CSRA ZONES. WL ALSO
ADD MENTION OF PSBL PTCHY ERLY AM FOG FOR ALL ZONES SINCE LOW-LVL MSTR
STILL PLENTIFUL. WL MAKE SLGT TWEAK TO CSRA FCST LOWS AS WELL. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.
.CAE...NONE.
BC
FXUS72 KCAE 112312 AMD sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE SPINNING OVER THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH ROTATION AROUND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. 12Z RUC SHOWS THIS FEATURE HANGING
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY DRIFTING ONLY VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SE
AL. BACK DOOR FRONT MADE SOME SWWD PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED FROM SAVANNAH NW ACROSS CENTRAL GA SO OUR
AIRMASS IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
JUICED AND UNSTABLE WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LIKELY TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS BIG BEND ZONES THIS MORNING AND TEMPS
RUNNING BEHIND GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
SIMILAR SENSIBLE WX TO YESTERDAY WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH IN
SPOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND AND QUICKLY BOOSTING US UNDER STRONG
JUNE SUN UP TO GUIDANCE MAXT/S WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING WELL LATELY.
BOTH FWC/FAN SHOW 88 FOR TLH AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
INTRODUCE A RANGE TO AFTERNOON MAXT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND OTHER AREAS THAT BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER
THAN TLH...85 TO 90 WILL BE THE CALL. WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS
WILL WORD SKY CONDITION AS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DELAY LIKELY POPS TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
MAW
FXUS62 KJAX 121443 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
RADAR LOOP INDICATES AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS LOCATED
OVER EXTREME NE FL AND SE GA HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT EXPECT THAT TO
CHANGE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MAJORITY OF CWA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ZONES APPEAR FINE AND NO
UPDATES PLANNED.
RUC MODEL SHOWS HIGH MEAN RH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG
A NW-SE AXIS TODAY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SW. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING
INDICATES PW NEAR 1.8 BUT WET BULB ZERO IS ABV 12 KFT. THEREFORE...
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY BUT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TS APPEARS
RATHER LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AS WELL.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING OVER THE NE CORNER OF CWF AREA.
LATEST BUOY REPORT FROM 41008 IS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT. SUGGEST
RAISING WINDS AND SEAS IN CWF.
ARS
FXUS62 KMLB 121423 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
UPDATE CONCERNS...SHRA/TSRA IN E CWA AND CLEARING TREND WEST.
AT 15Z...SFC COLD FRNT EXTDNG FM E LK SUPERIOR-ISQ-MKE WITH SFC DEWPTS
65-69 E OF FRONT...AND DRIER DWPTS NEAR 55 ADVECTING INTO W/CNTRL
CWA IN W FLOW. IR/LTG DATA INDICATING COOLING TOPS AND TSRA OVR WI
DOOR PENISULA MVG NE 25 KTS. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD
WITH WK SHORTWAVE RESLVD BY 12Z RUC THAT IS IMBEDDED IN SW UPR FLOW.
CORRESPONDING ENHANCEMENT WITH FEATURE ALSO EVIDENT IN WV IMGRY.
SW FEATURE IS FCST BY 12Z RUC TO CONTINUE NE ALNG COLD FRONT BDRY
INTO E CWA BWTN 15-21Z. RUCS 310K THETA SFC DEPICTS WEAK LOBE OF
ASCENT TO TRAVERSE E CWA WITH FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
DESCENT BY 00Z. CONVERGENT LK BREEZES SHOULD AID IN
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH MINIMAL SOLAR HEATING...CAPES
500-1000J/KG...AND SHOWALTER INDEX 1-2C...WILL RETAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING...WITHOUT RISK OF SVR.
TO WEST INCREASING DECENT EVIDENT ON 12Z RUCS 310K THETA SFC...WITH
VIS IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING LINE ALREADY WRKNG INTO GOGEBIC
COUNTY...THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS KEEWENAW PENINSULA REACHING
CNTRL CWA LATE. UPSTREAM INL SOUNDING QUITE DRY...SO BELIEVE SKIES
WILL BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AS RELATIVELY LOW LEVEL BDRY LAYER
MOISTURE MIXES OUT. MAX TMPS LK REASONABLE.
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KAPX 121503 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS LOOP SHOWS HI PRES CONTINUING TO RIDGE DOWN THE E
CST WHILE AN AREA OF LO PRES APPROACHES THE OUTER BANKS FROM
OFFSHORE. RDG PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN THRU THE AFTN AS THE LO MOVES
ASHORE EARLY THIS EVE. VIS PIX SHOW PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS ERN NC. 09Z RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE H8 RH
FIELD & SPREADS 70+ PCNT INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE FA BY MID-AFTN.
BUT HIGHEST MOISTURE STAYS N SO WILL STAY PTSUNNY. ELSEWHERE THE
AFTN LOOKS GOOD W/ LITTLE MOISTURE & PLENTY OF SUN. A RELAXED LO-LVL
FLOW W/ AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING ALG THE CST WILL ENHANCE
PROSPECTS FOR A RESULTANT BOUNDARY & LIFT THIS AFTN. BUT A DRY & MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROHIBIT ACTIVITY. TEMPS IN LOWER TO
MID 80S FINE BASED ON LOCAL SCHEMES.
CWF: WINDS BECMG FAIRLY LGT ALG THE CST WHICH AGREES W/ 03Z MESO-ETA
& RUC PROGS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES PLANNED.
.ILM...NONE.
LGE
FXUS62 KMHX 120614 nc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
FCST TODAY APPEARS ON TRACK. SCT CU MIDLANDS WITH BULK OF CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY PUSHING SW THRU CSRA. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TREND OF DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NE...BUT HANGS ON TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE NEAR THE CSRA.
WILL GO SUNNY OR MSTLY SUNNY NE AND BECMG PRTLY CLDY CSRA THIS AFT.
.CAE...NONE.
FXUS72 KCAE 120715 sc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
THE MODELS SHOW DRYING OCCURRING FROM NE TO SW TODAY AND SATELLITE AND
OBS SUPPORT THIS. BASED ON THE RUC/S 950-850 MB RH FORECAST...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SW PART THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE
APPEARS WEAKER SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH DOWNWARD
H7 OMEGA SO THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE. FWC/FAN AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURE SCHEMES ARE VERY CLOSE AND PLAN TO FOLLOW. PLAN TO ADD A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS TO MONDAY/S FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST AVN
WHICH SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND AN H5
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING.
.CAE...NONE.
RJL
FXUS62 KCHS 120652 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS GOOD
SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE LITTLE
LOWER TODAY AND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA...ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND SUBSIDENCE IS LESS.
LATEST MESOETA AND RUC SHOW TODAY BEING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL MOTION. WITH THIS IN MIND CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
HAVE A GOOD DAY...
PDK #2
FXUS74 KMEG 120801 tn
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
245 PM MDT SAT JUN 12 1999
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED BY NOON.
AIR MASS DRY PER MORNING SOUNDING AND THEREFORE VERY LITTLE RAIN FROM
THESE STORMS EXPECTED.. MAINLY GUSTY WIND VARIETY. MINOR UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. LIFTED INDICES REMAIN BELOW
ZERO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.. BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
DISTURBANCES TO ENHANCE LIFT. WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHEARING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS CAUGHT
UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND BROAD EASTERN CANADA TROUGH.
WHILE MOST OF THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY STAYS OVER MONTANA AND
WYOMING.. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.. SO
WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED.. AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH MRF
SHOWING STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. MRF
AS BEEN LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST WEEK.. BUT RIDGE
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERHAPS INCREASING AT 700 MB BY WEDNESDAY.. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN UTAH. NO CHANGES TO
WESTERN COLORADO WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAINS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING.
FRISBIE
.GJT...NONE.
FXUS65 KPUB 122000 co
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
200 PM MDT SATURDAY JUNE 12 1999
OVERALL APRS PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GOOD CHC OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TODAY TSTMS FIRING
QUICKLY AS MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT FM SHT WAVE
NOW OVR WRN CO PER RUC AND WTR VPR IMAGERY MOVING EAST...WHILE
FARTHER E ERN CO STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF EXITING WAVE NOW IN WRN
KS. MEANWHILE FRONT MOVING S INTO WY AS HI PRES BUILDS BHND GUD
SHORT WV MOVING ACRS ERN MT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOC UPR LVL FORCING
WITH WAVE AND UPR LVL JET STREAK BRINGS A GOOD DEAL OF FORCING INTO
WRN NEB LATER TONIGHT SO WUD XPCT THERE SHD BE AREA OF TSTMS
THERE...THIS SHD HELP PUSH SURGE INTO NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MIGHT KEEP SHWRS/TSTMS GOING ALL NIGHT OVER PTNS OF THE ERN
PLAINS...AS WELL AS LEADING TO LOTS OF LOW CLDNS SUNDAY MORNING. SO
XPCT SUNDAY TO HAVE COPIOUS LO LVL MSTR WITH ELY FLOW AT LOW LVLS AND
PERHAPS MORE UPR LVL FLOW FM THE NW AS THE JET STREAK WILL BE CLOSER
TO FCST AREA...THO STILL FAR ENUF TO THE NE THAT AMNT OF FLOW OVER
AREA IS STILL TRICKY. WILL NEED TO UP POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN
PASSAGE OF FRONT WITH INCRSD UPSLP.
FOR MONDAY...THOUGHT YSTDY THAT IT MIGHT BE THE DRIER DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SURGE OF COOLER UPSLOPE FM THE N FOR TUE AND BYND. TODAY
THO LUKS LIKE THERE SHD CONT TO BE PLENTY OF LO LVL MSTR ARND AND
WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS PROB NO SHORTAGE OF AFTN TSTMS AGAIN...WILL GO
ORDER OF 40 PCNT CHC OR SO. LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGRMNT
AND HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON STRENGTH OF HI ENTERING OUR AREA...BUT
STILL PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH ANOTHER SURGE XPCTD LATE
MONDAY OR ERLY TUE...LEADING TO RENEWED UPSLOPE CONDS. GRADUALLY
FLOW WILL COME ARND WITH TIME TO MORE SELY WITH SOME TEMP
RECOVERY...WILL BROAD BRUSH IN STATE AND PUT ANY SUCH DETAILS IN
ZONE EXTENDED PERIOD. LIKELY AN ACTIVE 5 DAYS AHEAD. SZOKE
.DEN...NONE.
FXUS65 KBOU 120901 co
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
TONIGHT...EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR OF FA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. RUC MODEL INDICATES BEST SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR OF FA...AROUND
LAKE AND ORANGE COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST
COAST BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. AVN MODEL
PLACES SURFACE LOW OVER NC COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON FA.
SUN...ETA SHOWS E-W AXIS OF DRYING RIGHT THRU CENTRAL FL IN RESPONCE
TO SHARPENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF MID ATLC COAST CUTOFF.
WHILE PARTIAL DRYING EXPECTED FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY IT WIL ONLY
SLOW DEVELOPENT OF CONVECTION AND ACTVTY WILL FIRE WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISION AND MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST ESPECIALLY N OF THE CAPE.
SUN NT AND MON...WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN LONG WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
UPPER MID W AND GREAT LKS. BROAD SFC RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SLIDE
A BIT MORE S AND ALLOW FLOW TO VEER. ONLY THE ETA INDICATES DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN FM THE S OVER THE TOP OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT ALL
MDLS INDICATE PCP WATER VALUES MORE THEN ENOUGH FOR MORE TS ACTVTY.
MAY TEND TO HAVE HIER POPS IN THE S.
TUE AND WED...AS SHRT WV MOVES WELL N OF AREA FLOW CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE SW AND WILL FOCUS ACTVTY CLOSER TO THE E COAST. FIRST N OF
THE CAPE ON TUE AND ALL AREAS BY MID WEEK.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
DAB BB 072/087 071/087 070 05343
MCO TT 070/088 072/089 070 05443
MLB BB 073/086 073/088 072 05343
.MLB...NONE.
BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN
FXUS62 KTAE 121833 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999
...GLOBALLY...
PATTERN CHANGE DISCUSSED EARLIER THIS WEEK IS NOW UNDERWAY AS THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY BEING
TRANSFERRED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM ALLOWING IT TO BECOME DOMINANT.
NET RESULT IS THE CURRENT 4 WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WILL
BECOME AN UNSTABLE 5 WAVE PATTERN. MOSAIC OF GOES 8/10...GMS-5...AND
METOSAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ALASKA AREA IS REORGANIZING AS THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE
TROF RETROGRESSES WESTWARD. PER SATELLITE TRENDS STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH ENERGY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AS HEIGHTS BUILD JUST WEST OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROF TO RETROGRESS ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO
NEAR 47.5N/153W. DOWNSTREAM THIS REORGANIZES THE REX BLOCK INTO AN
OMEGA BLOCK ON THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALLOWING THE POLAR
VORTEX WEST OF GREENLAND TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND CARVE
OUT A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NET RESULT HERE WILL BE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEST COAST OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SIBERIA DIVES
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROF ALLOWING ENERGY TO BE TRANSFERRED INTO
THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
...LOCALLY...
PROFILER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. A MUCH MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WAS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI WHICH IS BARELY REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
AS A TROF FROM NEAR KIRK TO KSTL. THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION NOTED ON THE
DVN 88D. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KCDJ WHILE
THE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG A KEFT... KMUT... KCDJ LINE.
MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE 70 DEW POINT AIR EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DIURNAL CU/SC BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE BETTER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MANY...RAIN CHANCES...CLOUDS/TEMPS...AND
WHETHER TO KEEP ANY HEADLINES.
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK AND WERE DOING A FAIRLY
GOOD JOB OF VERIFYING AT 18Z. THE ETA CATCHES THE LOW NEAR KCDJ AT
18Z DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. 15Z RUC INITIALIZED THE LOW BUT
LOST IT BY 18Z BUT IS CATCHING THE MAJOR FEATURES FAIRLY WELL. ALL
MODELS INDICATE QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY MOVE THE
FRONT 10-20 MILES DURING THE NIGHT WHILE IT WAITS FOR THE KANSAS
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE UP ALONG IT. ADDITIONALLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE STILL NIL BUT STRONGER ONES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
DAKOTAS. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO LOW (AOA 1 INCH) WILL KEEP
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A DBQ TO JUST EAST OF OTM LINE. FAIRLY HIGH PWS
COMBINED WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED THICKNESS...SURFACE FRONT...
AND EVENTUAL RRQ OF JET ALL POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
PRESSURE RISES FINALLY FORCE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. SO WILL GO WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE AT LEAST MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES.
...EXTENDED...
PATTERN CHANGE ALLOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW
TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS TAKE
PLACE ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE RAW WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 60S.
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI...AND STL.
.DVN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
IAZ054-064>068-077-078-087>089-098-099
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-025-026-034-035
NC
FXUS63 KDMX 121925 ia
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999
DVLPMNT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONT INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS ARCS
CWA TAPERING OFF AFTR SUNSET WILL LOSS OF LOW LVL SUPPORT. SFC RUC
INDCG SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPG IN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE. SHWRS
AND TSTM ACTVTY TO SWITCH TO OFFSHORE AS C-BRZ/ LAND-BRZ SWITCHES
AND LOW LVL DYNAMIC'S SWITCHES OVR CSTL WTRS. MSTLY CLR SKIES
XPCD OVRNGHT W/ LIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR INLD AREAS.
SFC PRES GRAD RMNS WEAK W/ SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GULF. UPR LVL
WEAKNESS XPCD TO CONT OVR SE TX AND SW LA... AS RDGG FM REX BLOCK
OFF THE E CST EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE GULF CSTL STATES EAST OF THE
AREA. AVN AND NGM NOW TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT... BUT WITH
UPR LVL SUPPORT AND LTL CHANGE XPCD IN THE TROPICAL MSTR WILL LEAN
TOWARDS PRESISTANCE.
NGM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOUT RIGHT W/ MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL
ADJUST POPS UP A BIT.
LCH TT 073/087 073/087 4635
LFT TT 073/087 072/087 4535
AEX TT 069/088 069/088 4533
BPT TT 073/087 073/087 3545
K. KUYPER
FXUS64 KLCH 121919 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN HALF OF FA AND
CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE. CLEARING WILL LEAD TO CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT
WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN. WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREA
EXCEPT EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES MIGHT NEED SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL. LATEST RUC SHOWS MOISTURE FINALLY GETTING
SHUNTED WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN GA COUNTIES HAS MOVED
AWAY OR DISSIPATED AND WILL DROP MENTION OF. DELGADO
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS62 KCHS 121402 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1030 AM MDT SAT JUN 12 1999
LATEST SFC ANALYS SHOWS WK TROF FM SE WY TO LOW IN SRN CANADA.
SATELLITE INDC SOME CLOUD DEVLPMNT ALONG THIS LINE... SO COLD FRONT
MAY BE DEVELOPING AS ADVERTISED IN MODELS. WV IMAGES SUGGEST SW/V
OVR NW MT IS MOVING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN 00Z MODELS INDC. DIGITAL
TIMING EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THIS SW/V INTO NW SD/NE WY BY 00-01Z...
WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN 12Z ETA AND RUC.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
AFTERNOON POPS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW
END OF THE RANGES GIVEN AND NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE ATTM.
.UNR...NONE.
MURPHY
FXUS63 KFSD 121509 sd
EASTERN WISCONSIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HAS ARISEN IN THE 2ND AND 3RD PDS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL RUNS AT 12Z. FCST CHALLENGE NOW IS GOING
FM A RATHER TRANQUIL SUNDAY FCST FOR THE S-SE TO A RATHER WET ONE.
OF THE 4 LONG RANGE MODELS TO LOOK AT...IT IS A SPLIT DECISION.
ONE OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS THE RATHER SIGGY VORT OVR SW KS
EXPECTED TO HEAD E OR NE. THE NGM/AVN DON/T APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE STRENGTH OF THIS VORT VERY WELL AND MORE OR LESS
WASH IT OUT OR TAKE IT DUE E FM IT/S CURRENT POSITION. THE ETA/UWNMS
APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE S/W...
CONFIRMED BY THE NEW RUC...AND TAKE IT RIGHT INTO NRN IL/SRN WI ON
SUN. WHAT HELPS LIFT THIS NORTH IS THE SLIGHTLY BACKING FLOW CAUSED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF A CANADIAN S/W TROF. THESE TWO MERGE OVR AREA
SUN/SUN NGT. THE S/W SHULD WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES NE INTO
CONFLUENT UPR FLOW. HOWEVER...OTHER DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL COME FROM
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE RGT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET. THE UWNMS HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE CONCERN AS IT ALSO BRINGS A TIGHT
UPR LVL JET MAX UP FM THE SOUTH WITH THE KS S/W. THIS PRODUCES A PD
OF CLASSIC JET COUPLING FOR ADDED UVV. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UW MODEL
HAS GONE BALLISTIC ON QPF RGT UNDER THE ASSOCIATED AGEO CIRCULATION
OF THE COUPLED JETS. ALL THIS OCCURS WITH THE TROF NRLY STNRY AT
THE SFC FOR ADDED FOCUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC TROF/FNT WL LIKELY HAVE SLIPPED S OF WI OVRNGT...
THE COOLER AIR OVR SRN WI WL BE VRY SHALLOW WITH MOIST SWRLY FLOW NOT
TOO FAR UP. LOOKS LIKE A GUD OVRRNG SITUATION PSBL.
WL UP POPS OVR SE TO LIKELY CAT FOR NOW AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS
BACK FARTHER W AS THINGS EVOLVE.
ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE SE...AN AREA
THAT HAS GOTTEN A LOT OF RAIN LATELY. IF THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE
S/W AND COUPLE JET MATERIALIZE...THEN HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. ADDITIONALLY...OUR HYDROLOGIST IS OUT OF THE OFFICE
THIS WEEK...A SURE SIGN OF RAIN...
.UWNMS...HAS THE MOST DETAIL OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIKE THE ETA...BUT STRONGER. DEVELOPS UNBELIEVEABLE UVV WITH
COUPLED JET SOLUTION AT 30 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...QPF VRY HIGH AND
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUFFERING FM FEEDBACK /?/.
.MKX...NONE.
DAVIS
FXUS63 KGRB 120928 wi