AXNT20 KNHC 041747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON 04 AUG 2003 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45-60 NM RADIUS OF 9.5N25W JUST WEST OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 5-10 KT. 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG WAVE NEAR 15.5N. THIS WAVE/LOW CENTER MIGHT NOT REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS UNTIL 36 HOURS FROM NOW...BASED ON ITS MOVEMENT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30-40 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N55W FIVE HOURS AGO. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. LOW CLOUDS RACING WESTWARD IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CELLS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W PROBABLY NOT WITH THIS WAVE. THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W MIGHT BE RELATED TO SOME TYPE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. HIGH CLOUD BUILDUPS FROM 17N TO SW HAITI COAST BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W/90W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IN ATLANTIC BASIN. AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION 10N10W 9N25W 8N40W 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180-240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 20W...AND WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... WESTERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N94W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN REST OF GULF OF MEXICO...EAST OF 90W. THE COMPARATIVELY SHARPER AND MUCH MORE WELL-DEFINED RIDGE WHICH WAS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME. WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...RIDGE IS COMPARATIVELY MORE WELL DEFINED...BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATING OVER SOUTH AMERICA REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF REST OF CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. BROAD AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN SE CORNER OF CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTH OF 14N EAST OF 66W. ATLANTIC OCEAN...HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...DRY AIR ALSO IN CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N45W...HAS BEEN AROUND FOR AT LEAST THE LAST THREE DAYS...WITH NO SURFACE LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS OF 24N45W CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW RACING ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 40W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR... FROM 20N TO 30N EAST OF 35W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 400 NM WEST OF 36W/37W TROPICAL WAVE... AND WITHIN 500 NM WEST OF 21W TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... COLD FRONT THROUGH 30N44W TO 28N50W TO 26N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 24N57W 26N50W 30N43W BEYOND 32N38W. RIDGE WITHIN 300-350 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N73W TO EASTERN CUBA...AND WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA TO 19N81W TO 9N83W. ANOTHER RIDGE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE WHICH GOES FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N95W. RIDGE WITHIN 150-200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N33W 25N45W 23N59W. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN NE GULF AND OVER FLORIDA...FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W... TO THE SE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHOSE AXIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 22N98W 23N88W 25N81W...WEST OF 90W AROUND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 25N94W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND EAST OF 90W EAST OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CELLS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W PROBABLY NOT WITH THE 72W TROPICAL WAVE. THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W MIGHT BE RELATED TO SOME TYPE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. HIGH CLOUD BUILDUPS FROM 17N TO SW HAITI COAST BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS... FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CUBA TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...IN AREA OF FORMER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IN THREE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...IN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. $$ MT