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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/16/07 2020Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 2000Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...
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EVENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES-11 FULL DISK IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA WITH
ACCOMPANYING UL JET STREAK SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PER LATEST 17Z
GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND PLOT.  SINCE THAT TIME IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH
LEADING EDGE OF EXIT REGION HAS MADE SOME NE PROGRESS AND BEST ESTIMATES
WOULD SUGGEST THAT LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WAS ABOUT 270 KM WSW
OF WESTERN TEXAS.  APPEARS AS THOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS PER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WITH THAT HAVE NOTED
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIM COUNTRY OF COCONINO AND
NAVAJO COUNTIES.
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LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOWS THAT MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WAS FROM
THE VIC OF DUG NNE INTO SW CO BUT A SECONDARY AXIS WAS EXTENDING
WESTWARD ALONG THE RIM TOWARDS FLG.  PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH DIGITAL POINT VALUES OF NEAR 0.75"
ALONG THE SECONDARY INSTABILITY AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE.  RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WITH THE MOST INTENSE SLOW
MOVING CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.0"/HR.
85/30H WINDS ALIGNED WELL WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL APACHE COUNTY
INTO SW SAN JUAN COUNTIES FOR PERHAPS AN EVENTUAL HEIGHTENED CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAIN.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION AS IT EVOLVES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3693 11125 3678 10952 3612 10860 3534 10795 3491 10769
3411 10789 3315 10779 3270 10827 3301 10929 3303 11078
3411 11260 3515 11338 3613 11351 3690 11237
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