# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for Daily X Flare Probability Forecasts # # Lead Time: Forecast lead time # Total Records: Total number of daily forecast/observation records used to generate statistic # Event Days: Total number of days in the sample on which at least one X class flare occurred # Mean (f): Mean forecast # Mean (x): Mean observation # Median (f): Median forecast # Std Dev (f): Standard deviation of forecasts # Std Dev (x): Standard deviation of observations # Std Dev (f-x): Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations # Mean (f|x=1): Mean forecast given the occurrence of an event # Mean (f|x=0): Mean forecast given the non-occurrence of an event # Median (f|x=1): Median forecast given the occurrence of an event # Median (f|x=0): Median forecast given the non-occurrence of an event # Std Dev (f|x=1): Standard deviation of forecasts given the occurrence of an event # Std Dev (f|x=0): Standard deviation of forecasts given the non-occurrence of an event # Discrimination: The difference between [Mean (f|x=1)] and [Mean (f|x=0)] # ME: Mean error # MAE: Mean absolute error # MSE: Mean square error # RMSE: Root mean square error # Linear Assoc: Linear correlation between forecasts and observations # Skill: Forecast skill with respect to observed climatology (same as prediction efficiency) # # Missing data: -99999 # Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 2006 Start: 1/1/06 End: 12/31/06 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 4 4 4 Mean (f): 0.019 0.019 0.018 Mean (x): 0.011 0.011 0.011 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.050 0.048 0.048 Std Dev (x): 0.104 0.104 0.104 Std Dev (f-x): 0.098 0.111 0.113 Mean (f|x=1): 0.190 0.055 0.043 Mean (f|x=0): 0.017 0.018 0.018 Median (f|x=1): 0.300 0.100 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.161 0.052 0.043 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.044 0.048 0.048 Discrimination: 0.173 0.037 0.024 ME: 0.008 0.008 0.007 MAE: 0.026 0.028 0.028 MSE: 0.010 0.012 0.013 RMSE: 0.098 0.111 0.113 Linear Assoc: 0.362 0.080 0.053 Skill: 0.112 -0.147 -0.171 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 2005 Start: 1/1/05 End: 12/31/05 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 13 13 13 Mean (f): 0.049 0.046 0.043 Mean (x): 0.036 0.036 0.036 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.105 0.097 0.092 Std Dev (x): 0.186 0.186 0.186 Std Dev (f-x): 0.161 0.171 0.173 Mean (f|x=1): 0.323 0.250 0.223 Mean (f|x=0): 0.039 0.038 0.037 Median (f|x=1): 0.300 0.200 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.211 0.190 0.196 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.084 0.083 0.078 Discrimination: 0.284 0.212 0.186 ME: 0.014 0.010 0.008 MAE: 0.062 0.064 0.063 MSE: 0.026 0.029 0.030 RMSE: 0.161 0.171 0.173 Linear Assoc: 0.502 0.405 0.377 Skill: 0.242 0.147 0.127 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 2004 Start: 1/1/04 End: 12/31/04 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 9 9 9 Mean (f): 0.048 0.046 0.043 Mean (x): 0.025 0.025 0.025 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.068 0.067 0.065 Std Dev (x): 0.155 0.155 0.155 Std Dev (f-x): 0.149 0.154 0.157 Mean (f|x=1): 0.179 0.146 0.113 Mean (f|x=0): 0.045 0.043 0.041 Median (f|x=1): 0.200 0.150 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.110 0.090 0.079 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.064 0.065 0.064 Discrimination: 0.134 0.102 0.072 ME: 0.023 0.021 0.018 MAE: 0.064 0.063 0.062 MSE: 0.023 0.024 0.025 RMSE: 0.151 0.155 0.158 Linear Assoc: 0.305 0.237 0.173 Skill: 0.052 -0.001 -0.044 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 2003 Start: 1/1/03 End: 12/31/03 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 17 17 17 Mean (f): 0.065 0.061 0.056 Mean (x): 0.047 0.047 0.047 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.104 0.100 0.090 Std Dev (x): 0.211 0.211 0.211 Std Dev (f-x): 0.188 0.200 0.203 Mean (f|x=1): 0.281 0.215 0.180 Mean (f|x=0): 0.055 0.053 0.050 Median (f|x=1): 0.250 0.150 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.244 0.225 0.192 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.079 0.083 0.077 Discrimination: 0.226 0.161 0.130 ME: 0.019 0.014 0.010 MAE: 0.086 0.087 0.086 MSE: 0.036 0.040 0.041 RMSE: 0.188 0.201 0.203 Linear Assoc: 0.458 0.340 0.304 Skill: 0.200 0.093 0.076 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 2002 Start: 1/1/02 End: 12/31/02 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 12 12 12 Mean (f): 0.073 0.070 0.066 Mean (x): 0.033 0.033 0.033 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.062 0.061 0.060 Std Dev (x): 0.179 0.179 0.179 Std Dev (f-x): 0.177 0.179 0.178 Mean (f|x=1): 0.138 0.123 0.123 Mean (f|x=0): 0.070 0.068 0.064 Median (f|x=1): 0.200 0.150 0.150 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.071 0.075 0.072 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.061 0.060 0.059 Discrimination: 0.067 0.055 0.058 ME: 0.040 0.037 0.033 MAE: 0.096 0.094 0.091 MSE: 0.033 0.033 0.033 RMSE: 0.182 0.183 0.181 Linear Assoc: 0.193 0.160 0.172 Skill: -0.037 -0.050 -0.033 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 2001 Start: 1/1/01 End: 12/31/01 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 18 18 18 Mean (f): 0.100 0.095 0.092 Mean (x): 0.049 0.049 0.049 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.099 0.095 0.092 Std Dev (x): 0.217 0.217 0.217 Std Dev (f-x): 0.218 0.216 0.213 Mean (f|x=1): 0.194 0.192 0.192 Mean (f|x=0): 0.095 0.090 0.086 Median (f|x=1): 0.200 0.200 0.200 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.089 0.099 0.094 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.097 0.092 0.089 Discrimination: 0.100 0.101 0.105 ME: 0.050 0.046 0.042 MAE: 0.130 0.126 0.122 MSE: 0.050 0.048 0.047 RMSE: 0.223 0.220 0.217 Linear Assoc: 0.219 0.232 0.249 Skill: -0.061 -0.034 -0.006 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 2000 Start: 1/1/00 End: 12/31/00 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 14 14 14 Mean (f): 0.080 0.078 0.075 Mean (x): 0.038 0.038 0.038 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.092 0.087 0.082 Std Dev (x): 0.192 0.192 0.192 Std Dev (f-x): 0.192 0.196 0.203 Mean (f|x=1): 0.189 0.154 0.108 Mean (f|x=0): 0.076 0.075 0.074 Median (f|x=1): 0.150 0.100 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.139 0.134 0.072 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.088 0.083 0.082 Discrimination: 0.113 0.080 0.034 ME: 0.042 0.039 0.037 MAE: 0.104 0.104 0.105 MSE: 0.039 0.040 0.042 RMSE: 0.197 0.200 0.206 Linear Assoc: 0.236 0.176 0.080 Skill: -0.052 -0.088 -0.151 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1999 Start: 1/1/99 End: 12/31/99 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 4 4 4 Mean (f): 0.065 0.063 0.061 Mean (x): 0.011 0.011 0.011 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.075 0.075 0.075 Std Dev (x): 0.104 0.104 0.104 Std Dev (f-x): 0.119 0.126 0.126 Mean (f|x=1): 0.175 0.087 0.087 Mean (f|x=0): 0.064 0.063 0.061 Median (f|x=1): 0.150 0.100 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.155 0.048 0.048 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.074 0.075 0.075 Discrimination: 0.111 0.025 0.027 ME: 0.054 0.052 0.050 MAE: 0.072 0.072 0.070 MSE: 0.017 0.019 0.018 RMSE: 0.130 0.136 0.136 Linear Assoc: 0.154 0.035 0.037 Skill: -0.567 -0.717 -0.696 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1998 Start: 1/1/98 End: 12/31/98 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 12 12 12 Mean (f): 0.052 0.049 0.045 Mean (x): 0.033 0.033 0.033 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.079 0.076 0.071 Std Dev (x): 0.179 0.179 0.179 Std Dev (f-x): 0.181 0.187 0.185 Mean (f|x=1): 0.131 0.090 0.083 Mean (f|x=0): 0.049 0.048 0.044 Median (f|x=1): 0.100 0.050 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.103 0.093 0.091 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.077 0.075 0.070 Discrimination: 0.082 0.042 0.039 ME: 0.019 0.016 0.012 MAE: 0.076 0.076 0.072 MSE: 0.033 0.035 0.034 RMSE: 0.182 0.188 0.186 Linear Assoc: 0.184 0.099 0.098 Skill: -0.044 -0.106 -0.083 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1997 Start: 1/1/97 End: 12/31/97 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 3 3 3 Mean (f): 0.016 0.016 0.017 Mean (x): 0.008 0.008 0.008 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.027 0.027 0.027 Std Dev (x): 0.090 0.090 0.090 Std Dev (f-x): 0.082 0.087 0.083 Mean (f|x=1): 0.150 0.093 0.137 Mean (f|x=0): 0.015 0.016 0.016 Median (f|x=1): 0.100 0.020 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.132 0.136 0.148 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.022 0.024 0.022 Discrimination: 0.135 0.078 0.121 ME: 0.008 0.008 0.008 MAE: 0.022 0.023 0.023 MSE: 0.007 0.008 0.007 RMSE: 0.082 0.088 0.084 Linear Assoc: 0.454 0.262 0.405 Skill: 0.174 0.059 0.144 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1996 Start: 1/1/96 End: 12/31/96 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 1 1 1 Mean (f): 0.011 0.011 0.011 Mean (x): 0.003 0.003 0.003 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.010 0.007 0.005 Std Dev (x): 0.052 0.052 0.052 Std Dev (f-x): 0.053 0.053 0.053 Mean (f|x=1): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Mean (f|x=0): 0.011 0.011 0.011 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.010 0.007 0.005 Discrimination: -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 ME: 0.009 0.008 0.008 MAE: 0.014 0.014 0.013 MSE: 0.003 0.003 0.003 RMSE: 0.054 0.053 0.053 Linear Assoc: -0.007 -0.008 -0.007 Skill: -0.069 -0.049 -0.036 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1995 Start: 1/1/95 End: 12/31/95 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 0 0 0 Mean (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Mean (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.005 0.002 0.000 Std Dev (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Std Dev (f-x): 0.005 0.002 0.000 Mean (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.005 0.002 0.000 Discrimination: -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.010 0.010 0.010 MAE: 0.010 0.010 0.010 MSE: 0.000 0.000 0.000 RMSE: 0.012 0.010 0.010 Linear Assoc: -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1994 Start: 1/1/94 End: 12/31/94 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 0 0 0 Mean (f): 0.013 0.013 0.013 Mean (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.013 0.013 0.013 Std Dev (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Std Dev (f-x): 0.013 0.013 0.013 Mean (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f|x=0): 0.013 0.013 0.013 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.013 0.013 0.013 Discrimination: -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.013 0.013 0.013 MAE: 0.013 0.013 0.013 MSE: 0.000 0.000 0.000 RMSE: 0.018 0.018 0.019 Linear Assoc: -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1993 Start: 1/1/93 End: 12/31/93 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 0 0 0 Mean (f): 0.030 0.030 0.028 Mean (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.042 0.041 0.040 Std Dev (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Std Dev (f-x): 0.042 0.041 0.040 Mean (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f|x=0): 0.030 0.030 0.028 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.042 0.041 0.040 Discrimination: -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.030 0.030 0.028 MAE: 0.030 0.030 0.028 MSE: 0.003 0.003 0.002 RMSE: 0.051 0.051 0.048 Linear Assoc: -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1992 Start: 1/1/92 End: 12/31/92 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 9 9 9 Mean (f): 0.048 0.046 0.041 Mean (x): 0.025 0.025 0.025 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.061 0.057 0.050 Std Dev (x): 0.155 0.155 0.155 Std Dev (f-x): 0.162 0.164 0.162 Mean (f|x=1): 0.079 0.054 0.050 Mean (f|x=0): 0.047 0.045 0.041 Median (f|x=1): 0.050 0.050 0.010 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.055 0.062 0.064 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.061 0.057 0.050 Discrimination: 0.032 0.009 0.009 ME: 0.024 0.021 0.016 MAE: 0.069 0.067 0.063 MSE: 0.027 0.027 0.026 RMSE: 0.163 0.165 0.162 Linear Assoc: 0.081 0.025 0.029 Skill: -0.113 -0.136 -0.098 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1991 Start: 1/1/91 End: 12/31/91 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 48 48 48 Mean (f): 0.154 0.144 0.135 Mean (x): 0.132 0.132 0.132 Median (f): 0.100 0.100 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.157 0.154 0.154 Std Dev (x): 0.338 0.338 0.338 Std Dev (f-x): 0.331 0.333 0.339 Mean (f|x=1): 0.266 0.248 0.223 Mean (f|x=0): 0.137 0.128 0.122 Median (f|x=1): 0.300 0.250 0.150 Median (f|x=0): 0.100 0.100 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.176 0.196 0.211 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.147 0.140 0.139 Discrimination: 0.129 0.120 0.101 ME: 0.022 0.012 0.004 MAE: 0.215 0.210 0.208 MSE: 0.110 0.111 0.115 RMSE: 0.331 0.333 0.339 Linear Assoc: 0.278 0.264 0.222 Skill: 0.038 0.032 -0.005 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1990 Start: 1/1/90 End: 12/31/90 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 15 15 15 Mean (f): 0.087 0.083 0.078 Mean (x): 0.041 0.041 0.041 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.099 0.097 0.093 Std Dev (x): 0.199 0.199 0.199 Std Dev (f-x): 0.195 0.207 0.211 Mean (f|x=1): 0.225 0.157 0.125 Mean (f|x=0): 0.081 0.080 0.076 Median (f|x=1): 0.200 0.100 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.169 0.144 0.143 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.090 0.093 0.090 Discrimination: 0.144 0.078 0.049 ME: 0.046 0.042 0.037 MAE: 0.110 0.111 0.109 MSE: 0.040 0.044 0.046 RMSE: 0.200 0.211 0.214 Linear Assoc: 0.290 0.159 0.105 Skill: -0.013 -0.127 -0.157 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1989 Start: 1/1/89 End: 12/31/89 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 54 54 54 Mean (f): 0.193 0.189 0.179 Mean (x): 0.148 0.148 0.148 Median (f): 0.100 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (f): 0.187 0.185 0.178 Std Dev (x): 0.356 0.356 0.356 Std Dev (f-x): 0.333 0.339 0.342 Mean (f|x=1): 0.363 0.342 0.318 Mean (f|x=0): 0.164 0.162 0.155 Median (f|x=1): 0.300 0.300 0.300 Median (f|x=0): 0.100 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.204 0.207 0.206 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.167 0.168 0.161 Discrimination: 0.199 0.180 0.163 ME: 0.046 0.041 0.031 MAE: 0.234 0.235 0.233 MSE: 0.113 0.117 0.118 RMSE: 0.336 0.341 0.343 Linear Assoc: 0.379 0.345 0.326 Skill: 0.106 0.075 0.068 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1988 Start: 1/1/88 End: 12/31/88 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 10 10 10 Mean (f): 0.074 0.071 0.068 Mean (x): 0.027 0.027 0.027 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.095 0.094 0.093 Std Dev (x): 0.163 0.163 0.163 Std Dev (f-x): 0.181 0.185 0.187 Mean (f|x=1): 0.131 0.094 0.072 Mean (f|x=0): 0.073 0.070 0.067 Median (f|x=1): 0.100 0.050 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.121 0.095 0.068 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.094 0.094 0.094 Discrimination: 0.058 0.024 0.005 ME: 0.047 0.043 0.040 MAE: 0.095 0.093 0.091 MSE: 0.035 0.036 0.037 RMSE: 0.187 0.190 0.191 Linear Assoc: 0.099 0.042 0.008 Skill: -0.309 -0.355 -0.380 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1987 Start: 1/1/87 End: 12/31/87 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 0 0 0 Mean (f): 0.014 0.014 0.013 Mean (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.013 0.013 0.012 Std Dev (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Std Dev (f-x): 0.013 0.013 0.012 Mean (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f|x=0): 0.014 0.014 0.013 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.013 0.013 0.012 Discrimination: -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.014 0.014 0.013 MAE: 0.014 0.014 0.013 MSE: 0.000 0.000 0.000 RMSE: 0.019 0.018 0.018 Linear Assoc: -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare Year: 1986 Start: 7/1/86 End: 12/31/86 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 184 184 184 Event Days: 0 0 0 Mean (f): 0.012 0.012 0.012 Mean (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.011 0.012 0.010 Std Dev (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Std Dev (f-x): 0.011 0.012 0.010 Mean (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f|x=0): 0.012 0.012 0.012 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.011 0.012 0.010 Discrimination: -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.012 0.012 0.012 MAE: 0.012 0.012 0.012 MSE: 0.000 0.000 0.000 RMSE: 0.016 0.017 0.015 Linear Assoc: -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -99999 -99999 -99999