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FXUS04 KWBC 122042
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
440 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2009
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 13/0000 UTC THRU MAR 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN MID ATL...
BROAD MID TO UPR LEVEL SWLY FLOW WL CONT IN THE SRN STREAM FROM
THE SW AND ACRS THE SRN TIER DAY 1. THIS WL CONT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD REGION OF PCPN ACRS THESE AREAS DAY 1 AS OVERRUNNING OF
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES. MODELS SHOW THE PRESENT
AREA OF PCPN FROM THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN
VALLEY CONTINUE TO STREAK ENEWD INTO THE SRN TO CNTRL
APPALACHIANS/SRN MID ATL AS THE FIRST AREA OF SHRTWV ENERGY
SPREADS ENEWD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THE DAY 1 QPF FOLLOWED THE
NAM FOR AMTS DAY 1 ACRS THESE AREAS AS IT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE HEAVIER GFS AND THE LIGHTER. ACRS SERN TX...THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE HANDLING THE AREA OF PCPN MOVG ENEWD OUT OF SERN TX AND INTO
LA BETTER THAN THE NAM OR EC. FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD...WE CONT TO FAVOR ITS HEAVIER AXIS MOVG ACRS NRN LA AND
INTO CNTRL MS.
LOW LEVEL SLY INFLOW OFF OF THE WRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING INTO ERN TX AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM HT FALL MOVG IN THE SRN STREAM. THIS SHOULD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF ORGANIZED PCPN BREAKING OUT IN THIS SRN STREAM FLOW AND
THEN PUSHING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED IN YDYS RUNS...THERE ARE DIFFS WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PCPN. THE DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE FARTHER SWD AXIS OF THE
CMC...UKMET AND SREF MEAN OVER THE FARTHER NWD PSN OF THE ECMWF.
GIVEN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...ABOVE NORMAL PWS AND THE ABOVE
MENTIONED STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...HEAVY PCPN LIKELY WITH THIS
NEXT ROUND OF PCPN. WHILE THERE DIFFS WITH THE QPF AXIS...THE
OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE AGREE ON 1-2"+ AREAL AVG AMTS FROM
ERN TX...ACROSS CNTRL TO NRN LA...FAR SRN AR AND INTO CNTRL TO NRN
MS.
SW INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...
THE SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVG INTO THE NRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO CONT TO PUSH EWD INTO THE SW TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS DURG FRI. LIMITED PCPN CURRENTLY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD INCREASE DURG
THE DAY FRI OVR THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
STRENGTHENING ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGHER PWS SUPPORT LIGHT TO MDT
PCPN AMTS. THE SREF MEAN WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY DAY 1 GIVEN A
LARGE SPREAD IN QPF DETAILS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL RUNS...WITH
.10-.25" AREAL AVG AMTS DEPICTED.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SRN PLAINS EWD THRU THE GULF CST STATES AND INTO THE SRN MID
ATLC REGION...
MSTR FLUX FROM GOMEX WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST MATCHING THE
ORIENTATION OF THE ELONGATED SRN STREAM TROUGH. NUMEROUS VORTS
EMANATING FROM THE SW CONUS WEAK UPR LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. THAT BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SE TX ALL
THE WAY TO DELMARVA. SUBTLE PHASING WITH NRN STREAM COMBINED WITH
THE SRN STREAM VORTS ARE PLAYING HAVOC WITH MDLS AS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. A CONCENTRATION OF PRECIP ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST
WEST OF THE FL PANHANDLE IS THE ONE CERTAINTY...THUS 1-2 INCHES OF
QPF HAVE BEEN DRAWN HERE. UPSTREAM QPF IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN WITH
THE NAM SHOWING A VAST AREA OF COLD CONVEYOR PRECIP BEHIND A SPUN
UP H7 LOW IN THE OH VLY. TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS AND ECMWF HINT
AT A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO DID EXPAND THE
CURRENT PRECIP AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 3.
THE MORE CONCENTRATED PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC DAY 3 WHERE A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE. WITH SUCH MODEL
DISPARITY...USED AN ENSEMBLE QPF NUDGED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF.
...PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PAC NW WITH A VERY
MOIST TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. 2-3 STD DEV
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL FEED INTO COASTAL WA/OR AND NRN CA IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IN TWO SURGES ACCORDING THE THE
PREFERRED 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS BLEND. COASTAL RANGE WILL SEE THE
BRUNT OF MOISTURE...PERHAPS 5 INCHES IN THE 48 PD. CASCADES AND
DOWNSTREAM NRN ROCKIES WILL SEE MUCH LESS.
SOWKO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 14/00Z
0.01 516277 519265 519259 518254 515248 511243 507241 503242
501246 501252 497256 493258 488264 485272 481277 477281
473286 470289 469293 472301 477306 482309 487307 495301
505291 513281 516277
0.01 385747 383736 379726 376719 371714 362706 358705 352704
349706 346711 345721 342745 339752 336759 333768 325790
322800 321805 321812 323825 326834 327842 325850 323854
318866 316870 311875 304881 296891 291900 287909 283916
270937 261954 257963 255976 257985 258992 260999 267009
270014 273017 288031 301046 307052 312058 310062 304065
305072 310084 316092 319096 323101 326107 330110 334113
338117 343126 348129 351131 356131 359126 358121 356116
354114 354110 353101 354096 356094 360091 366091 372090
379089 386088 389086 395073 397068 398064 395061 391057
389053 389050 393038 390034 386030 381026 374026 369023
365020 361016 358011 356006 354999 351989 350978 350971
351963 350953 352926 355916 361906 367896 372887 378873
382861 385850 387836 389823 390812 389801 387793 387781
386762 385747
0.25 514266 515262 514259 511259 509259 508264 510267 513269
514266
0.25 506277 505275 505272 503269 501267 498267 496268 496273
496274 499278 501280 505279 506277
0.25 373758 372751 369747 365747 360749 358751 355756 354761
354767 355772 356778 359783 363783 365781 369776 371771
372767 372762 373758
0.25 380805 378801 375801 371806 367817 365827 363833 361838
354849 352854 348857 344854 338857 334861 330865 325875
316883 311891 307899 286934 280945 279950 280953 282960
282966 281978 282987 286991 291993 296993 306994 316998
321999 325997 327993 329985 330974 333964 344917 347905
349891 350880 351874 354871 357869 359871 362867 366856
369852 372848 376844 378837 379829 379819 379809 380805
0.25 379075 379065 377057 375049 370043 366040 362038 357037
353038 351041 349048 351054 351060 351065 352072 357075
361075 367075 375079 378077 379075
0.50 345885 344874 341869 338868 335870 331875 328880 323884
319888 315894 306916 291934 288940 287946 288952 292957
293960 294964 293970 294977 297982 302985 308986 316985
320981 329958 332950 334944 336932 340918 343904 345893
345885
1.00 338880 335880 331882 327890 325895 321898 317905 311921
303937 301942 299947 299950 301953 303958 303961 303966
305969 308970 311970 314967 320960 327945 330934 332924
333914 334904 339883 338880
1.50 328917 325917 324918 326920 328918 328917
1.50 326935 326928 325921 322922 319926 316930 315934 313938
310941 308945 307949 308953 311955 317954 319952 322948
324943 325938 326935
24HR QP VT 15/00Z
0.01 489656 486652 481655 476662 474668 473680 471692 470698
471702 470707 471711 470719 469747 470801 476823 478833
482840 483845 483850 483859 486866 488876 490881 494888
496893 500907 503924 506930 507940 508944 510949 514955
518959 520958 520953 520949 522944 521934 522927 522921
521916 518908 515893 512884 511880 508860 504840 504835
504825 500809 495790 493776 491760 485728 491701 492678
489656
0.01 539207 538199 535192 528175 525168 521163 517162 509163
504160 500153 497145 495136 492135 490132 484127 480125
476124 472123 464121 454128 452130 450134 453140 454144
453149 450149 447147 442144 437136 434148 433154 435159
437165 432165 428165 426168 428171 431172 436172 441172
444173 446179 441182 437189 437197 438202 436205 430204
424200 423210 421214 416214 411214 408219 407224 407229
405233 402239 403244 405247 416253 425256 433258 438259
447262 455264 462264 473268 482272 486277 497288 503291
508292 513287 516281 521269 520260 515242 510227 503212
497205 495203 493199 497195 499195 505197 510197 513199
516205 519211 522216 526217 530223 534223 536221
0.01 387705 385698 383695 376694 368697 364700 360705 353723
347740 346749 345758 340776 338785 333794 326809 324818
321824 319829 319836 317844 316849 313853 309859 303865
296873 287884 282892 279899 266931 254961 251969 250977
254984 260988 267991 276991 289978 294972 298969 302969
309972 315977 336004 342010 347012 352013 357010 359008
363998 366979 367973 367967 365954 364944 367936 373928
376919 391884 392873 393862 394851 394841 394818 392794
390772 389749 388724 387705
0.01 391090 389072 383068 378063 373060 366058 365053 364051
360049 355050 350052 345052 341053 339056 339062 344065
348066 351065 354064 356065 355069 353071 347073 339072
333075 330075 328080 328085 332091 333098 335105 339112
345116 348120 350124 353124 360121 352114 349113 348109
345103 343096 341091 342086 345084 350083 355079 360077
366080 371086 374088 378090 381091 384090 388092 391090
0.25 533210 533204 531198 529193 525188 521184 518180 514176
510174 507179 509185 512189 517193 519197 522202 527208
530211 533210
0.25 509274 512265 513259 513254 512247 510241 505228 499217
496213 490207 487205 482204 477205 472207 468209 461210
454215 448216 443216 437216 432219 428220 425222 426227
427231 423234 417235 413239 417244 421247 428249 434250
444252 451254 458254 468256 480262 490267 499275 503277
506277 509274
0.25 380718 376709 373706 369707 367710 364716 363724 362731
361738 361745 360759 358767 356774 343799 338809 335816
332822 326849 321858 312869 305880 298892 293901 290908
288914 286921 285929 284940 283955 283959 285961 290957
297954 302952 311950 317950 324950 329951 333952 337951
342947 346941 349935 352921 356909 361894 366882 370867
374855 376847 376840 374829 372818 371810 372803 372795
371789 368771 367766 367761 370754 374749 375741 379729
380718
0.50 507254 508250 508246 506240 501228 496218 493215 488211
482209 473214 464214 459215 455217 438222 440226 440230
438234 435238 431239 425237 421237 417240 421243 441247
452250 462248 467249 473252 484258 489260 492262 496260
502257 507254
0.50 491234 488232 486229 483231 485236 488236 491234
0.50 370847 369842 368838 364831 357812 355810 351812 346818
340830 333843 327856 325860 321866 312878 306889 300901
298906 296913 296928 297935 301940 308942 315943 320943
329943 336939 340935 346923 351908 361880 365868 369851
370847
1.00 482244 481242 480239 479235 479234 476231 473233 471236
470240 472243 474246 477247 480247 482244
1.00 460241 463238 461236 458234 455234 452233 449233 446235
444236 443240 445242 448244 450245 453244 455244 457243
460241 460241
1.00 362854 361848 359843 354835 350832 345834 341842 337850
333860 326876 318893 313898 312908 311914 314921 321924
324926 329925 333923 337919 341912 345902 352886 356878
359868 362854
1.50 354860 350847 347846 345849 342854 339866 334877 329886
324897 322902 321909 323912 325915 330914 334910 337905
341896 347884 351874 353869 354861 354860
24HR QP VT 16/00Z
0.01 525256 522248 520243 517240 510222 505214 501205 500199
502196 508198 512206 514210 518213 527216 532218 536215
539212 538201 535189 531180 528174 522166 517157 511151
499137 487127 481124 472123 469122 468119 467115 464104
463100 459098 455092 438093 435092 433090 427085 418099
413099 411098 409096 407098 405101 403110 403118 405122
408124 414126 418130 419134 418142 415150 413155 412161
415183 420187 423184 424181 426176 428175 431176 436180
433183 429183 426185 426188 430188 432190 432193 431200
429203 423198 418200 415202 409201 403201 399201 395203
392203 389205 388213 392220 395222 392222 389224 386226
385231 388239 392245 394248 398252 404256 418265 422269
427271 436274 443273 453276 461278 471282 479289 483292
486294 492296 503296 507295 511293
0.01 486724 484717 482713 477708 473707 468712 466716 465722
465730 465735 466744 465749 467757 466762 468770 470778
472782 475785 479787 482786 485774 486764 487749 488738
486724
0.01 405701 403694 401691 397689 394689 386689 381690 375693
367698 358705 352712 346722 342737 338757 335767 332775
326789 311820 304833 297849 295857 292864 283879 280886
278895 275911 273927 271946 269957 267961 265965 258976
256983 257986 260988 265989 270986 275980 279974 284972
289972 292970 298966 304962 309955 313945 317937 321932
326923 327914 330907 336891 340882 346875 352869 355867
361864 364864 368866 374871 385879 391881 395881 402876
404873 409869 413860 420843 422833 422821 421808 418794
417784 413769 408746 405734 406720 406709 405701
0.01 440125 440121 440120 437119 434120 434124 431128 428131
428132 426135 425139 424142 424143 427146 429143 430143
431140 433137 434136 436132 437132 439129 440128 440125
0.25 509279 511268 511259 511247 510241 508234 504225 497214
493210 486205 477205 471205 465207 460208 455210 431215
428217 424225 420229 414230 411234 410238 412246 416252
420255 427258 435260 441260 451260 458260 466261 474264
484274 495284 501285 506282 509279
0.25 500173 499168 497165 493161 489155 485150 474144 467141
463140 459141 455144 448146 443146 440148 439153 441161
445166 450170 455168 460165 463167 467171 474174 482177
489178 496177 500173
0.25 450113 451109 450106 448105 447104 444104 441104 439104
438105 435105 432108 432109 435111 438112 440112 441113
443114 446116 449115 450113
0.25 393734 384720 378717 371716 369716 365718 360726 358739
356755 353770 348786 344799 339812 331824 323837 316848
310859 303873 293898 289910 284925 283934 285944 286948
289951 294951 298948 303943 310930 316917 321906 333879
339867 347854 353842 355833 358826 364822 374819 379818
382821 382827 383833 385845 387851 389854 396855 400854
402850 403841 401831 400826 398821 394815 392813 391808
392800 390790 389772 392755 394744 393734
0.50 506278 507268 505262 501247 500241 501232 496227 492225
489225 483223 473216 470213 464212 452213 444216 439218
435221 428230 424233 420233 417233 414235 415243 418248
422252 428254 434254 445253 455252 464251 471251 477254
484259 486262 493272 498277 501280 504280 506278
0.50 482169 483165 481161 481160 479158 476155 475154 473153
471151 468151 465153 465157 467161 467162 469164 472166
474167 475168 478169 481169 482169
0.50 379754 377748 372747 368753 366757 364767 362776 358785
355794 354798 357803 360805 363805 369803 371800 373789
374781 377770 379759 379754
0.50 349837 349833 348829 345825 342825 337831 329841 322849
316858 310868 306879 302888 294909 291920 290926 290933
291939 295941 298939 302935 305931 309921 314911 323891
329880 333870 342849 347842 349837
1.00 480244 481240 478234 475233 470236 466230 463219 458217
452217 448219 446220 445224 443228 440231 437236 433241
435246 441248 450247 459246 467244 469242 472243 477244
480244
1.00 321878 321875 322871 319871 317873 317874 315877 315879
314881 314884 316886 319884 319882 321879 321878
1.00 311901 310898 307899 304903 302907 301911 299915 298921
298925 301927 304923 306919 308914 309909 311905 311901
1.50 465239 464236 461233 459230 457228 459225 460221 455223
450225 448229 444231 440234 438238 439243 443244 447245
453243 457243 461242 465239
2.00 461237 458233 456232 456231 453229 452230 450231 446233
443234 441235 440239 442242 445242 448243 450242 451242
454241 457240 461237 461237
$$
