AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1119 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 .UPDATE... REMNANT LIGHT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS AT THIS TIME...AS FIRST MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION MOVES SLOWLY INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO. QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS WHAT EFFECT THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE ON TEMPS AND REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. WILL MAKE INITIAL UPDATE TO MAX TEMPS AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER KEEPS TEMPS ALOT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER MVC SWIRLING ACROSS SWRN KS AND ANOTHER QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS IN CEN CO. THE HAVILAND PROFILER PICKS UP ON THIS SWIRL NICELY. SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT HANDLING THE SWRN KS MCV VERY WELL...WITH THE RUC KEEPING THIS MCV RATHER STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WRF/NAM DOESNT PICK UP ON THIS AT ALL. GENERAL TREND IS TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF RECOVERY AND REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OVER CEN AND SRN KS KS AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MCV MAKES SLOW PROGRESS FURTHER EAST...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WELCOME SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE TSRA WILL BE TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SRN/SERN KS. KETCHAM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN TODAY. WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW...TOUGH TO KNOW WHICH WAY MCV WILL MEANDER. EXPECT SOME REMNANTS MAY FESTER WELL INTO THE MORNING ON DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING COLD POOL...POSSIBLY DRIBBLING PAST 1800 UTC ALONG OK BORDER/SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE...DECENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WY...WHICH ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERPLAYING. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BEST LINE ON THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH...BUT NOT SURE ITS DIVING THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM INTO COLORADO IS CORRECT. AT ANY RATE...THIS SHOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND REST OF AREA TONIGHT. WITH GOOD RECOVERY EXPECTED IN FAR NORTH...SUSPECT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SURPASSED LEADING TO ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...IF STORMS FIRE IN AREAS WHICH RECOVER WELL...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY ALLOW 50MPH GUSTS ON STORM COLLAPSE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LEAST PRECIPITATION OCCURRED AND INSOLATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. NOTE...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS...OPTED TO HAVE ZONE FORCAST PRODUCT FORMATTER INCLUDE GRIDS PRIOR TO 7AM START OF VERIFICATION PERIOD...SO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NUMBERS IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT WILL BE HIGHER THAN NUMBERS IN THE REST OF THE CODED TEXT PRODUCTS WHICH VERIFY 7AM-7PM. TONIGHT: DECENT CHANCE AT MORE PRECIPITATION...COULD DEVELOP SURFACE BASED AROUND 0000 UTC WITH HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...MOVE IN FROM NORTH OR DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF 850MB BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH. WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE CHANCES OF ONE OF THESE OUTCOMES OCCURRING IS HIGHEST. FRI: STILL SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO THE MORNING...PRIMARY EAST OF I-35. GOOD RECOVERY ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS AND UPPED TEMPERATURES A BIT..ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. HEAT/HUMIDITY MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SAT-MON: NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING HOT FORECAST AS CURSORY LOOK AT NEW DATA GENERALLY CONFIRMS GOING FORECAST. DID TWEAK SEVERAL GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CLIMATOLOGY TRENDS AND CONSENSUS. -HOWERTON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 97 74 98 75 / 30 30 10 10 HUTCHINSON 97 74 100 74 / 20 30 10 5 NEWTON 97 75 100 75 / 30 30 10 10 ELDORADO 97 75 99 74 / 30 30 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 97 75 97 75 / 40 30 20 10 RUSSELL 99 72 104 72 / 20 20 10 5 GREAT BEND 99 73 104 72 / 20 20 10 5 SALINA 99 74 102 75 / 20 20 10 5 MCPHERSON 97 74 101 75 / 20 30 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 93 74 92 73 / 50 30 20 10 CHANUTE 94 73 94 73 / 30 30 20 10 IOLA 94 73 95 73 / 30 30 20 10 PARSONS-KPPF 93 74 93 73 / 40 30 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 520 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006 .MARINE UPDATE... UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY UNTIL 6 AM. SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES ALONG THE WATER INDICATE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. MOREOVER...12Z NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH MUCH OF THE 30KT WINDS MIXING DOWN DUE TO 82F WATER SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z NAM/GFS/RUC AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION...CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. EXPECT THE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS NRN MD OVER THE NEXT FOUR TO SIX HOURS. THE NAM IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MCS OVER WRN AND CNTRL PA OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CENTRAL PA CONVECTION...SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUMMER TIME PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH WITH NO PENETRATION OF ANY FRONTS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE WRN STATES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EWD RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO POPS. && .AVIATION... EXPECT AN INCREASING AREA OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A FOUR HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO COVER THE CONVECTION. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z TONIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY. && $$ MARINE UPDATE...ROGOWSKI SHORT TERM...TEW LONG TERM...ROSA AVIATION...TEW md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND ANY SVR POTENTIAL. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEARLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS THE NRN CONUS. DESPITE A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV MOVING INTO WRN UPR MI...ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF ALONG WITH LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER W UPR MI. AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE REST OF UPR MI...BUT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY CAPPING WITH SUBSTANTIAL 750-600 MB WARM LYR...PER 12Z KGRB SNDG AND AREA TAMDAR SNDGS...AND BY LOW LVL MIXING WHICH DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWVS SE OF LK WINNIPEG ALSO SUPPORTED LITTLE MORE THAN AN AREA OF MID HIGH CLOUDS WHILE A MORE VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND SFC LOW WERE MOVING FROM SASK INTO WRN MANITOBA. TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THE CAP...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE OVER THE W HLF OF UPR MI THIS EVENING. WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY NEAR 1K J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT...AND FREEZING LVL NEAR 14K FT AND WET BULB ZERO NEAR 10.5K FT...MAINLY SMALL HAIL WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER TSTMS. LATER TONIGHT...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO...THE RESULTING WAA PATTERN AND BAND OF 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SUPPORT AREA OF SHRA AND SOME TSTMS THAT COULD BRUSH WRN LK SUPERIOR AND W UPR MI AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING. FRI AND FRI NIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL MDL DIFFERENCES EMERGE AS THE NAM IS FASTER IN BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MI AND PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER S FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS AND BUILDING RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY...A COMPROMISE CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS PREFERRED. LOW LVL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTING CAPES TO 1.5-2.0K J/KG (GIVEN TEMPS NEAR 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S) SUPPORTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER INTERIOR WEST UPR MI. 0-6KM SHEAR INTO THE 35-40 KT RANGE MAY SUPPORT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO NEAR SVR STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLD LARGE OR DAMAGING WINDS...PER SPC SLGT RISK. ANY TSTM CLUSTERS WOULD LIKELY SAG S INTO LK MI/WI OVERNIGHT WITH TSTM OUTFLOW HELPING TO PUSH ALONG THE FRONT. SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE SFC-H8 FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO UPR MI SO THAT AS SHRTWVS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RDG MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...MAINLY NRLY SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL SAT KEEPING TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 70S NORTH TOE LOWER AND MID 80S OVER THE SOUTH. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING/POSITION OF ANY SHRTWVS AND BOOSTS TO THE 850 L WSW LLJ INFLOW...SO THAT ONLY 30 POPS WERE MENTIONED. SUN-THU...AS HGT FALLS MOVE INTO THE PAC NW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM RDGING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR TOWARD THE AREA. AGAIN...UPR MI WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND FRONTAL BNDRY FOR A THREAT OF MCSS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF GFS/ECMWF VERIFY WITH H8 TEMPS TO AROUND 25C...TEMPS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S IF SHRA/TSRA DO NOT DEVELOP OR CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL KEEP SHRA/TSRA THREAT GOING TIL DRIER/COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR WED/THU. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 620 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH KANSAS FED THE ACTIVITY AND HELPED ORGANIZE IT INTO A MCV. TRAJECTORY OF THE MCV WILL CARRY IT THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH SIDE OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO...BUT FEEL ANYTHING FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PLEASANT HILL OFFICE WOULD BE BEST HANDLED WITH A SHORT TERM FORECAST. CUTTER && .PREV DISCUSSION... 357 AM... SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE FINALLY BEAT DOWN OUR GREAT BASIN HIGH TO THE EXTENT THAT IT HAS RETROGRADED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONTS PROGRESS HAS BEEN STALLED THANKS TO THE RETURN FLOW INDUCED BY A GULF COAST ANTI-CYCLONE. DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE INDUCED BY THIS PATTERN...HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY A WEAK TROPICAL LOW THAT MOVED INLAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GULF COAST HIGH. STILL...SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT HAVE POOLED NICELY...MAKING IT INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE NORTHER HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE POST SUNRISE HOURS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER CONFUSED WITH STORMS ENCIRCLING THE CWA. 00Z/27 UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW A TONGUE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WITHIN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SOME BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO HIGGINSVILLE AND KIRKSVILLE...LOOKED TO A BIT MORE CAPPED WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD HELP CAP OFF CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI FROM KANSAS CITY NORTH. LEFT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POPS IN FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND AREAS EAST FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WITH THE PVA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES WISE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A CATEGORY OR MORE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND MCV IN KANSAS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER H8 TEMPS...CONSPIRE TOGETHER. KICKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY SUNDAY AS HOT HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CUTTER 950 PM... SOME MINOR REVISIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIMIT MENTION OF STORMS TO AREAS FROM SURFACE BOUNDARY...SOUTHWARD...WHICH MAINLY RUNS FROM AROUND KANSAS CITY..TO NEAR KIRKSVILLE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP ON PROFILER DATA IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE AXIS RUNNING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT...SO THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ADD FOG TO GRIDDED FORECASTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PC 330 PM... SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOMINATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS FEATURE ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUANCE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THE MIDWEST HAS BEEN UNDER FOR THE PAST WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ARE A SERIES OF PESKY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES...WHICH HAVE MADE SHORT TERM FORECASTING TRICKY AS OF LATE. CLOSER TO HOME...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO SAG ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. I HAVE BEEN WATCHING A WEAK MESO LOW FORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A SOMEWHAT HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS BUILT UP. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH FORMING PRECIP IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER SW IOWA AND NE MISSOURI. RUC HAS BEEN MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIP...WITH A DECENT REPRESENTATION OF THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL OUTFLOW AIR FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. A FEW LIMITING FACTORS DO EXIST HOWEVER. MODELS HAVE OVERESTIMATED THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...PLUS BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL HELP TO CAP THE ENVIRONMENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ON. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET FIRED UP...0-6KM SHEAR ~25 KNOTS...CAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PULSE SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. 30-35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL TRY AND FOCUS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SERVING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...AND NO H850-500 WAVE TO COOL THE MID-LEVELS OFF...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCI TO IRK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LAST REMAINING SHORTWAVE IN THIS NW FLOW PATTERN (CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA VIA WV IMAGERY) WILL ARRIVE TO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY. BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ONCE AGAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF. IF THIS FEATURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AHEAD OF OUR SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE LIKELY WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA. BOTH FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH SILENT POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREAS. TEMPERATURE WISE...HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES AT ALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GRIDS. WITH CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES REMAINING FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE REACH. SO HAVE LEFT TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A PRECURSOR TO THE LARGE 592DM RIDGE MOVING OUR WAY. 31 FOLLOWED THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEMBERS WAS VERY GOOD THIS CYCLE. AS THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SERN TEXAS MOVES THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN SLIDES EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN ITS WAKE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGING WILL FURTHER INCREASE IN STRENGTH TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE TO A RETURN OF VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH 5H HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 590DM AND 8H TEMPERATURES IN THE +22C TO +26C RANGE...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE CWA STARTING SUNDAY. MODEST RETURN FLOW AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS WILL KEEP SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...BRINGING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BACK ABOVE 105 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND MAY REQUIRE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS IF THE ABNORMALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE BY MIDWEEK AND ATTEMPTS TO BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MISSOURI. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND LIKELY BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGING TOO FAST. TEMPERED TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HEAT OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN FUTURE UPDATES IF THE RIDGE PERSISTS. 21 && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE KS...NONE $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1030 PM THU JUL 27 2006 .SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT - SAT)... IT APPEARS THAT WE'LL BE IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THUS...WE LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO 30% FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST ISOLATED VALUES (20%) IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION IS STILL SLATED TO COME INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK (GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 AM). EVEN AT THAT...IT SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AT FIRST. AS A RESULT...WE STILL RAISE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BACK TO 60% TOWARDS SUNRISE FOR MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL NY...BUT KEEP THE CHANCES LOWER OVER NORTHEAST PA. SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA (RUC AND GFS IN PARTICULAR) INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT. GIVEN THIS AND THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN. HOWEVER...SINCE THE ONSET OF THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL IS STILL 6+ HOURS AWAY AT THIS POINT...WE'LL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS THE OVERALL SITUATION AND DECIDE IF ANY WATCHES ARE NEEDED. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM BINGHAMTON ON NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...DIDN'T WANT TO FINE-TUNE THINGS TOO MUCH AT THIS POINT AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE SUCH DETERMINATIONS. ACTIVITY SHUD TAPER OFF BY ERLY TMRW EVNG, WITH DRY CONDITIONS XPCTD FRI NGT. SAT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY, BUT NXT S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW WILL APPRCH LATE WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LATE DAY STORMS ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VLY. TEMPS SHUD REBOUND BACK INTO THE U80S MOST AREAS, WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID CONDITIONS. -MJ/BMW && .AVIATION (27/18Z TO 28/18Z)... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY CHANGING TO MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND HZ OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AFTER 09Z ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST... BRINING AREAS OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST (ITH, ELM AND SYR) AFTER 09Z... AND TO THE SOUTHEAST (BGM, AVP) AFTER 12Z. EXPECT CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM NW TO SE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)... WITH HPC'S PREFERNCE OF A ECW/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION, WE STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR GUIDANCE. EXPECTATION OF MEANDERING FNTL BNDRY AND S/WV'S WHICH COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION AT ANY TIME. GFS INDICATES STRONGER RIDGING EARLY NXT WEEK WHICH MAY GIVE US A BREAK FROM POTNL CONVECTION SPCLY ON TUES/WED, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT TSRA ON THESE DAYS. SO SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS THRU THE XTNDD FCST, WITH MDLS SUGGESTING A STRONGER S/WV AND ASSCD CDFNT MOVG THRU NXT THURSDAY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1248 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006 .UPDATE... THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE IS FINALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION IS PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE IAG FRONTIER. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM THIS AREA OF WX IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE BUF METRO AREA...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS IAG AND ORELANS COUNTIES WHERE CAPES OF 1500- 2000 J/KG ARE IN PLACE. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY THE FINGER LAKES REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION HAS DESTABILIZED TO THE POINT WHERE SBCAPES ARE AVG 1500-2000 J/KG AND LI-S ARE IN THE VCNTY OF -4. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...PW'S OF 1.5 TO 1.75 (SFC DEW POINTS NR 70) AND LOW MBE VECTOR SPEEDS WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS. RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS WILL ALSO PRESENT THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL IS PROBABLY THE LEAST OF OUR TRW CONCERNS AS THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UP OVER 15K FT. IF THE RUC/NAM12 POINT SOUNDINGS VERIFY THOUGH...CAPES COULD EXCEED 3000 J/KG...WHICH WOULD BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN PEA-SIZED HAIL. IN ANY CASE...HAVE UPPED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES TO LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/ UPDATE... JUST ANOTHER IN A LONG STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND STEAMY DAYS UNDERWAY...ALTHOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROVE TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE FINGER LAKES AND POINTS EAST HAVE RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUN. THIS HAS COOKED THE MORNING AIR AND HAVE BOOSTED EARLY DAY CAPE SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE FULLY EXPECT SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. ANY TRIGGERS? A FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED LAKE ERIE BREEZE SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LUNCHTIME...AND STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND DRIFT EAST FORM THE SOUTHERN TIER...CROSSING THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION AFTER 18Z. MEANWHILE THE LAKE BREEZ BREEZE OFF LK ERIE SHOULD 'PROTECT' MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER AND SO I HAVE REMOVED STIORMS FROM THAT AREA. THIS MORNINGS KBUF SOUNDING SHOWS THAT OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. MOST SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THAT...EVEN IN THE WEST WHERE SKY COVER HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT. AVGED POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM12/RUC INDICATE MID AFTERNOON CAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG...BUT WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. WOULD NEED TO UTILIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE TO GIVE ANY CONCERN FOR HAIL AS THE FREEZING LEVEL IS WAY UP OVER 15K FT. AS FAR AS HEVAY RAIN...PCPN WATER LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 WITH SFC DEW POINTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. THIS...COMBINED WITH MBE VECTOR SPEEDS UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL RAISE THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINMENT FOR TRUE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IS THE FACT THAT MID LEVELS ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY. THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (LOW SHEAR) WITH A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND SOMEWHAT DRY MID LEVEL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS... AND PROBABLY A HIGHER AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING (ALSO HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF POS STRIKES). RSH PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FORECASTS THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION ATTM IS PUSHING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS OH/PA. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ TSTMS IN THEIR WAKE...HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME EXPECT RAINFREE CONDITIONS. THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG THIS AFTN WOULD SUPPORT ENHANCED WIND GUSTS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...ANY TSTMS THAT FORM IN THE THE JUICY ATMOSPHERE...PWS OF 1.6-1.8...WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME... BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE POSITION AND EXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SEE LITTLE REASON WHY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL NOT AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S CELSIUS. THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECAST GIVING A LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GFS DOES SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT). CAPPING SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...THEREFORE WILL SUGGEST A DRY DAY. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CAPPING AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. AVIATION... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AS OF 05Z WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER 12-13Z. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...WITH A GENERAL 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z...WITH MOST RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWER VSBYS IN SHRA/HAZE/LIGHT FOG. THAT SAID...A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR-LEVEL CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD. DURING THE DAY...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CLOUD BASES RISE WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...WITH AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES (KBUF/KIAG/KART) LIKELY SCATTERING OUT AS LAKE SHADOWS DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE...A BROKEN FIELD OF CU IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON SHOULD BE IN THE VFR RANGE. TONIGHT...THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND FORWARD SPEED OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT A PERIOD OF LIKELY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS REASON...WILL JUST INDICATE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH A CB QUALIFIER FOR NOW. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RSH ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1042 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006 .UPDATE... JUST ANOTHER IN A LONG STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND STEAMY DAYS UNDERWAY...ALTHOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROVE TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE FINGER LAKES AND POINTS EAST HAVE RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUN. THIS HAS COOKED THE MORNING AIR AND HAVE BOOSTED EARLY DAY CAPE SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE FULLY EXPECT SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. ANY TRIGGERS? A FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED LAKE ERIE BREEZE SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LUNCHTIME...AND STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND DRIFT EAST FORM THE SOUTHERN TIER...CROSSING THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION AFTER 18Z. MEANWHILE THE LAKE BREEZ BREEZE OFF LK ERIE SHOULD 'PROTECT' MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER AND SO I HAVE REMOVED STIORMS FROM THAT AREA. THIS MORNINGS KBUF SOUNDING SHOWS THAT OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. MOST SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THAT...EVEN IN THE WEST WHERE SKY COVER HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT. AVGED POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM12/RUC INDICATE MID AFTERNOON CAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG...BUT WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH. WOULD NEED TO UTILIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE TO GIVE ANY CONCERN FOR HAIL AS THE FREEZING LEVEL IS WAY UP OVER 15K FT. AS FAR AS HEVAY RAIN...PCPN WATER LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 WITH SFC DEW POINTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. THIS...COMBINED WITH MBE VECTOR SPEEDS UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL RAISE THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINMENT FOR TRUE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IS THE FACT THAT MID LEVELS ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY. THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (LOW SHEAR) WITH A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND SOMEWHAT DRY MID LEVEL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS... AND PROBABLY A HIGHER AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING (ALSO HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF POS STRIKES). RSH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FORECASTS THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION ATTM IS PUSHING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS OH/PA. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ TSTMS IN THEIR WAKE...HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME EXPECT RAINFREE CONDITIONS. THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG THIS AFTN WOULD SUPPORT ENHANCED WIND GUSTS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...ANY TSTMS THAT FORM IN THE THE JUICY ATMOSPHERE...PWS OF 1.6-1.8...WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME... BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE POSITION AND EXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SEE LITTLE REASON WHY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL NOT AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S CELSIUS. THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECAST GIVING A LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GFS DOES SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT). CAPPING SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...THEREFORE WILL SUGGEST A DRY DAY. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CAPPING AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. AVIATION... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AS OF 05Z WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER 12-13Z. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...WITH A GENERAL 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z...WITH MOST RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWER VSBYS IN SHRA/HAZE/LIGHT FOG. THAT SAID...A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR-LEVEL CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD. DURING THE DAY...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CLOUD BASES RISE WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...WITH AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES (KBUF/KIAG/KART) LIKELY SCATTERING OUT AS LAKE SHADOWS DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE...A BROKEN FIELD OF CU IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON SHOULD BE IN THE VFR RANGE. TONIGHT...THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND FORWARD SPEED OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT A PERIOD OF LIKELY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. FOR THIS REASON...WILL JUST INDICATE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH A CB QUALIFIER FOR NOW. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RSH ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 951 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS THIS MORNING. IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CHANCE OF POPS HOLDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND. SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROPAGATE QUITE A WAYS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHOULD BE PRETTY STRONG ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION... BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE HAS ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWA. THAT SAID...STILL THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ONLY A VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z...WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR FROM 09-12Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AFTER 18Z. && .MARINE... LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A GOOD SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE FORECAST ON THE NAM AND RUC MODELS TO FALL BY AT LEAST 2 MB INLAND. WHEN COMBINED WITH A PRE-EXISTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 12-15 DEGREE AIR TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS FROM LAND TO SEA...15-20 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SEAS WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO BUILD PAST THE FORECAST 2-3 FT...BUT THE AVERAGE PERIODS WILL CERTAINLY SHORTEN UP WITH A WIND CHOP DEVELOPING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAN AVIATION...HDL MARINE...TRA nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 230 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS MAINLY CONCERNING SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND RESULTING BOUNDARY ORIENTATION. ALTHOUGH MODELS INITIALIZED CLOSE ON THERMAL FIELDS GFS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH WEAKER STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES AND NAM WAY-OVERDOING NEAR TERM QPF. IN ADDITION BASED ON CURRENT NEAR ZONAL PATTERN AND RISING HEIGHTS FEEL COLD PUSH ON NAM OVERDONE AS WELL. WITH ABOVE THINKING WILL UTILIZE GFS FOR FORECAST. SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MB INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OVER CENTRAL MT WHICH WILL DROP SE AND RIGHT NOW TOUGH TO PICKOUT ANY MINOR FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN THE TWO THAT WOULD AFFECT FA. MAIN ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF BORDER TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ON WESTERN FA DOORSTEP AND WILL CROSS FA THIS EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ON T POTENTIAL WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE HOWEVER RUC NOT AS BEEFY WITH CAPPING VS GFS SO WILL MAINLY SLIGHT POPS TO BE SAFE. COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY REACHES INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESEMBLE LAST FEW NIGHTS. BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STARTING TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLDER AIR AS STATED ABOVE. NAM DRIVES COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH WHILE GFS HOLDS COLDEST AIR ALONG CANADIAN BORDER THAN SHIFTS COLDER AIR EAST. BASED ON CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AM HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING NAM SOLUTION AND WILL HOLD WITH WARMER GFS SOLUTION. WILL STILL SEE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS FA WITH LOWEST MAX TEMPERATURES ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS A RESULT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY LOCATION DIFFERS WITH GFS ALONG ND/SD BORDER AND NAM ALONG SD/NE BORDER. 850MB LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30KT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES GET QUITE WARM OVER SW 1/3 OF FA SO CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORIENTED ALONG FRINGE OF CAP. WITH BOUNDARY ORIENTATION UNCERTAIN WILL MAINTAIN LOW POP THREAT ACROSS WHOLE FA. HEAT THEN BECOMES MAIN ISSUE REMAINDER OF WEEKEND. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 12-16C WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP ATMOSPHERE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH FA. PNS ISSUED ADDRESSING HEAT THREAT. MON THRU THURS...THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. JUST WHERE THE LOW SETS UP AND ITS RESULTANT MOVEMENT WILL GREATLY AFFECT AMOUNTS AND TIMING OF PRECIP. BOTH THE GFS AND DGEX SHOW THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING FROM CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHERN MN THRU TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL HINGE ON FRONTAL POSITIONS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND OF ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES WILL HOLD TRUE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ VOELKER/ANDERSON nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 740 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006 .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)... THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NRN INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PCPN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE WRN LAKES MOVES EAST. THE 21Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST PCPN MAY NOT REACH CAK/YNG UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD PCPN SPREADING EAST FROM TOL/FDY INTO CLE THEN ERI THIS EVENING. WL BRING ALL SITES TO IFR OVERNIGHT...THEN RISE BACK TO VFR BY TRMW AFTN BEHIND THE VORT. THE BIG THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE THE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.0 INCHES. SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ALSO LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER STORM. THE STORMS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPRAOCHES. && .SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU FRI NGT)... HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ERIE LAKESHORE AT THIS TIME WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING WEST THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND 850 MB DEW POINTS IN THE MID TEENS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. WITH LAKE ERIE WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AS WELL...THIS MAY HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. WITH THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES PER HALF HOUR HAVE RECENTLY BEEN MEASURED IN LAKE COUNTY. THESE LOW TOP WARM RAIN LOW CENTROID TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4.5 KM IS QUITE HIGH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE. CURRENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 0-6 KM IS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH IS INHIBITING STORM ORGANIZATION BUT LIGHTNING FLASH RATES ARE INCREASING. BY THIS EVENING THE DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE BETTER WHICH MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGH CATAGORICAL RAIN POPS ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST A LINGER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTM IN THE MORNING BEFORE MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM (SAT THRU THU)... VERY WARM SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ACCORDING THE MID RANGE ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AND THE SINGLE RUN THE ECMWF. LATE IN THE WEEK(THU) THE NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO CHANGE AS A WEAK STORT WAVES DIGS SLIGHTLY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND ALLOW A WEAK COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE SOME COOLING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS. && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION AROUND AND E OF KCLE WILL CONT TO MOVE ENE THIS AFT. BIG QUESTION IS WHEN...WHERE AND IF MORE CONVECTION WILL FIRE TO THE W AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. CURRENTLY QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER NRN OH AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP LIMIT NEW DEVELOPMENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT NEW CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER ERN IN WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES FORM IT WILL TRACK E ACROSS AND NEAR TAF SITES AFT 21Z. THUS...MOST SITES WILL GET A TEMPO FOR A FEW HOURS OF TSRA. STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG FAR ENUF S TONIGHT TO CAUSE LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVE. WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOST AREAS AFT 04Z. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY. .PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY && $$ SHORT TERM...REL LONG TERM...REL AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 903 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FORECAST WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF AMOUNTS. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACE A DISTINCT WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. FORCING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. REGIONAL RADAR DATA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE EXPANDED MARKEDLY WITH PRECIP COVERAGE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MEASURED ON KOUN AND KSGF 00Z RAOBS ATTEST TO THE MOISTURE QUALITY...WHILE THE WEAK STEERING WINDS AND OBSERVED PRECIP RATES NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR ATTEST TO THE PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. PLACEMENT OF OVERNIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH...AND WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WET MICROBURST WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. UPDATED FORECAST ISSUED AFTER INCLUSION OF 9PM OBSERVATIONS. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 07 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 340 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... WV REVEALS UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO MN...WITH STRETCHING TAIL DOWN INTO SERN SD. AT THE SFC...WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS CONTINUES TO LAG FROM NERN NEBRASKA THRU NW IA THIS AFTN...AND RECENTLY HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS DEVELOPING JUST S OF KYKN TO E OF KSUX. NOT QUITE AS CLASSIC TONIGHT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NON SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITH 0-3KM CAPE A BIT WEAKER FROM 40-70 J/KG OFF BETTER RUC REPRESENTATION. WL CONTINUE TO MENTION THREAT FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSRA ACRS FAR SRN CWA. MOVEMENT WL BE FAIRLY SLOW IN ANY CELL. A BIT MORE HOSTILE TO N FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE...SO REMOVED MENTION. OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WOULD BE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT TO NW ALG DEEPER CONVERGENCE BNDRY...WHICH COULD DIVE MORE TO SE THAN EXPECTED AND CLIP NERN CWA. RISING HEIGHTS WITH A VENGEANCE ON FRIDAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE AN ISSUE. OUTSIDE...WAY OUTSIDE...CHANCE THAT TAIL OF WK SYSTEM TO NE MAY BE AN ACCAS THREAT TO NERN CWA LTR AFTN/EVNG... BUT NOT WORTHY OF MENTION ATTM. CONVECTION WITHIN MID LVL SHEAR AXIS ACRS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LVL MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWRD BELOW THE WARMING TMPS ALFT THRU THE SHORT TERM. 12Z NAM AND GFS DO NOT AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BECAUSE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH PAST RUNS...HAVE MOSTLY AGREED WITH SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAT GFS GIVES FOR FRONT/SFC LOW. TEMPS SUN MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO EXCEED 100 IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY...FIRE DANGER COULD BE A CONCERN SAT AND SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20 KTS AND LOW RH VALUES BOTH DAYS. WL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND VERY POSSIBLE THAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...HEAT CONTINUES TO BE DOMINANT AT THE START. FRONTAL ZONE CREEPS TOWARD NWRN CWA LT MONDAY...PLACING ESPLY SD CWA INTO SW MN IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SURGE. ONE BIG QUESTION WL BE AFFECT OF SUBTROPICAL WAVE WHICH ON SEVERAL MDLS GETS PULLED UP INTO WRN PLAINS BY MONDAY. EVEN IF THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WHICH OCCURRED WITH SYSTEM SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ENCROACHMENT OF SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION AS RIDGE SHIFTS EWRD. THREAT OF SOME POTENTIALLY THICKER CI AS WELL AS THE HIGH LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR IS ONLY THING KEEPING FROM GOING EVEN HIGHER ON MONDAY FOR TMPS...ESPLY ERN CWA. COOLEST AIRMASS LOW LVLS IS THRU SERN CWA...AND LTST GFS IS SHOWING THAT MID LVLS MIGHT REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO SCARE UP A TROPICAL SHRA...AT A MINIMUM A DECENT CU FIELD. ENS MEAN TMPS ARE 3-5F WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL FOR TUE MAXES IN SERN HALF OF CWA SET...WHICH FOLLOWS REASONING THAT BNDRY MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK. STATISTICALLY...THIS HAS BEEN A NEARLY INFALLABLE SIGNAL THRU THE SUMMER THUSFAR...SO HAVE EVEN GREATER CONFIDENCE RAISING SRN CWA TMPS AND INCREASING N TO S GRADIENT. INTERESTING TO NOTE HERE THAT CANADIAN/UK SUGGEST SLOWEST BREAKDOWN/PROGRESSION. EVEN ASSUMING THAT RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS JUST A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE...SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHC VASTLY IMPROVED BY LTR TUE INTO WED TO KNOCK TMPS BACK. WL FIGHT TENDENCY TO HOLD ONTO TOO WARM POSTFRONTAL TMPS ON TUE/WED. STILL FAIRLY WARM ALFT MON NIGHT...BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND START TO COOLING SEEMS TO FAVOR POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST ACRS NRN/NWRN AREAS WITH LITTLE CHANCE SE. WAVE PASSING TO N TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND THERMAL RIBBON SETTLING OVR CWA...PROSPECT FOR DEEPER DYNAMICAL INTERACTION WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOOKS FAVORABLE. TAKING SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF RRQ OF JET SEEMS TO BE IS A LATER TUE AFTN THRU EARLY WED EVENT...SO WL BOOST MAIN POPS THRU THAT WINDOW...KEEPING POPS GOING SOMEWHAT HIER WED ACRS SERN 1/3 OF CWA. UNLESS ACTION REALLY PUSHES OFF AND STRONG DRY PUSH WHICH IS NOT AT ALL ALONG CURRENT REASONING...ALL THIS ACTION SHUD HELP PUSH BNDRY WELL S BY LTR WED/EARLY THU ENDING PCPN THREAT...WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS DRIVEN SWRD BY EXITING JET THU. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SDZ255. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN/LAFLIN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 940 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 .DISCUSSION...AFTER LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE EXCITEMENT...THIS MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING IS COMING IN A LITTLE LESS MOIST BUT STILL UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 1.90 INCHES WITH A CAPE OF AROUND 4700 J/KG. THE CURRENT RUC GUIDANCE KEEPS A POCKET OF DECENT 5H VORTICITY POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH BETTER DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP FIRE OFF SOME MORE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND THE REGION TODAY. MET NUMBERS ARE GOING A BIT COOLER IN COMPARISON TO THE MAV GUIDANCE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGHER POPS INDICATED IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE MET GUIDANCE. CONSIDERING THAT THE MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT... WILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. HAVE UPDATED THE MORNING ZFP TO ADJUST THE FIRST PERIOD WORDING A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE CURRENT ZFP WORDING LOOKS OK AT THE MOMENT. && .MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED SSE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS NEAR 7 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS EVENING SO...WILL RAISE FLAGS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...SHRA OVER NRN AND WRN ZONES PRODUCING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO CIGS AROUND FL030. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SCA GMZ130-132-135 15Z THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. SCA GMZ150-155-170-175 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60 MARINE/AVIATION...55 MESO...VEGA tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1022 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN SAT/RADAR/TEMPS. SYNOPTIC/SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK MID LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING CENTRAL/ERN ZONES ATTM WITH SOME LIGHT -SHRA ACTIVITY NORTH AND BAND OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND HAVE BROADENED AND NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY ACCORDINGLY. BEST FORCING TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT...AND THEN ACROSS NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. IT IS ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA WHERE BEST FORCING/SHEAR/LIFT APPEAR TO PLAY ROLE IN POSSBL STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NONETHELESS...WITH GENERAL NVA AFFECTING MUCH OF AREA TODAY...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY ALL AREAS. OTHER THAN INTRODUCING NEW 12Z WIND GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/ SYNOPSIS... STORM SYS TO MOVE UP ACRS SRN CANADA TODAY AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CF MOVES ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION. SFC TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON FRI/FRI NITE. CF TO DROP DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND SRN CANADA ON FRI NITE/SAT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00-01Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M70S TO AROUND 90F TODAY WITH S-SW SFC WINDS AT AROUND 10G20KTS. RUC SHOWS PTSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH SCT CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU FRI NITE...WITH WK WAA ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATER TONITE AND ON SAT AFTERNOON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH BETTER LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON FRI AND EARLY FRI NITE...AND SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES ON SAT. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA DURING THE NEXT THREE AFTERNOONS. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATE TONITE AND ON FRI AND SAT. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.8-1.8" ACRS MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. CAPES ACRS THE FA APPEAR TO BE BLW 1000 J/KG TONITE...BLW 2000 J/KG ON FRI...BLW 800 J/KG ON FRI NITE...AND BLW 1500 J/KG ON SAT. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME -SHRA OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FA ATTM. ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA TODAY APPEARS TO BE MODERATELY SHEARED WITH CAPES OF AOB 1000-1500 J/KG AND WET-BULB ZERO HTS AVERAGING AROUND 11.0 KFT. HI PW VALUES AND SOME DECENT MID-LVL DRY AIR/INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ACRS THE FA TODAY TO POSSIBILITY CONTAIN SOME +RA AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE ZFP/GRIDS. WITH EARLY SHRA/CLDS EXPECTED ACRS THE FA TODAY THOUGH... WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY SPS THOUGH. HAVE HELD ONTO TO SCT/CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD FOR ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO TONITE THRU EARLY ON FRI NITE...THEN AGAIN ON SAT. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S TODAY AND ON FRI. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW. WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY 330 AM. AVIATION... MID LVL S/W AND SFC REFLECTION MVG THRU TDY WITH MID DECK BKN080-120 AND SOME SCT -SHRA BKN040. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WDLY SCT -TSRA UPSTREAM AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN HIGH OCTANE AIRMASS...XPCT MORE -SHRA/-TSRA DVLPMNT...ESP ALG/AHD OF ABV FEATURE IN VT THIS AFTN BUT IN RIPE AIRMASS ISOLD/WDLY SCT -TSRA PSBL IN NY AS WELL. ERLY MRNG LIFR/IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CIGS IMPRVG TO VFR/MVFR WITH HZ AND SCT -SHRA ACTVTY THIS MRNG. THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SOME HAZE AND BRF IFR CONDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMG vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS AC/CI AROUND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS. AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON ..FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 331 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... TODAY...ABUNDANT AND DEEP MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS IN THE H85/H7 LAYER WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT FLOW IN THE 0-2KM AGL LAYER...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AROUND WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WHICH WERE COOLER THAN I EXPECTED...BY SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES! I CONSIDER THIS A PRETTY BIG BUST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTING IN MID- SUMMER. AT ANY RATE...I AM NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT IN THE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE...ALONG WITH THE NAM12 AND RUC40 MODELS TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL GET ANY WARMER THAN THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY. AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS IN THE H5/7 LAYER FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST TODAY. WILL GO WITH 20-25 POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS CAPPING WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT. CAN CERTAINLY SEE AN ISOLD STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER MUCH LIKE LATE LAST EVENING...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED OVER 2" OF RAIN OVER A SMALL PORTION OF BARBER COUNTY. THIS TROPICAL TYPE REGIME WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. H7-8 RH/TEMP PROGS FROM THE GFS AND EVEN THE NAM12 SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET A WHOLE LOT WARMER THAN TODAY...WE PREVIOUSLY WERE CALLING FOR 100-102F OVER THE FCST AREA SATURDAY...BUT AM TRIMMING THESE TEMPS BACK INTO THE 94-97F RANGE WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING LOCKED IN PLACE. IT MAY APPROACH 100 OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST BASED ON H85 THERMAL PROGS BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S. WILL GO WITH LESS THAN 20 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. -UMSCHEID DAYS 3-7... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 92 71 95 72 / 20 20 10 10 GCK 92 70 96 70 / 10 10 10 10 EHA 91 68 94 68 / 20 20 10 10 LBL 93 70 95 71 / 20 30 10 10 HYS 93 71 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 P28 92 72 94 75 / 20 30 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN25/24 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 255 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .DISCUSSION... ONE OF OUR WEATHER MAKERS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS EASILY SEEN ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE AND 500MB PROFILER DATA. THIS FEATURE IS JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE RUC/GFS INDICATES THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW IS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SOME RAIN WAS ALREADY CREEPING NORTHEAST INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND WEST KY AT MIDNIGHT...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOW SHRA/TSRA ERUPTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH ACTUALLY SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS. BY 12Z TODAY...BOTH MODELS INDICATE A DECENT SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SEMO...SOUTHEAST IL...WEST KY AND SOUTHWEST IN...AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS SWATH OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE POSITIONED. WILL TRY TO TAPER POPS TO REFLECT THIS...BUT STILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN WEST KY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...SO WILL KEEP A 12 HR POP GOING TODAY AND JUST INDICATE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST. FOR EARLY TONIGHT (PRIOR TO 06Z)...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PUNY QPF. AFTER 06Z SAT...BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF SFC TROUGH PIVOTING BACK NORTH AT US...WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS SOME ACTIVITY. THE GFS IS DEFINITELY MORE ROBUST ON THE QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER ON TONIGHT...AS THE NAM SHOWS SOME QPF REACHING OUR SOUTHERN BORDER BY 12Z. ALREADY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS GOING IN TONIGHTS GRIDS...WITH IT TAPERED BEST CHANCES SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO BUMP THEM DOWN A TOUCH THOUGH. ON SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA...CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. WHILE BOTH MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH IN SYNC...THE MOISTURE AND QPF FIELDS DIFFER. THE NAM HARDLY BRINGS ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WEST KY. WILL TRY TO INDICATE THIS TREND IN SATURDAYS POP GRID. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE THE 20 POP GOING THERE...EVEN THOUGH THE NAM INDICATES ALL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A HINT OF SOME LINGERING PRECIP BUT IT MAY VERY WELL BE OVERDONE. FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NAM WOULD INDICATE NO RAIN...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN...AND THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS IS SIMILAR IN BUILDING THAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA...IT STILL WANTS TO PAINT SOME QPF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SINCE ITS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY...WILL LEAVE IT IN...BUT DON/T PLAN ON ADDING IT ON MONDAY YET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN RISING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS AT 20 DEG C OR ABOVE. HEAT INDICIES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 516 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS STATE ON MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS CNTL & INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SLGT RISK FROM SPC IS ACROSS GYX/S SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. USED THE RUC TO START OUT THE MRNG AS IT WAS VERIFYING WELL PER RADAR & SATL IMAGERY & THEN WENT W/THE WRF UP THRUOGH 00Z. FROM 00Z TO 12Z...A BLEND OF THE WRF & GFS WAS USED. BEST CHCS FOR STG TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM MLT TO BAXTER STATE PARK ON S TO BGR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/CAPES APCHG 1200 J/KG & TTS HITTING NEAR 50. KIS RUN INTO THE MID 30S. HIGH PWS NEARING 2 INCHES W/LIGHT SWLY WINDS THROUGH 10K FT. LOOKS LIKE HIGH WBZS (>11,500 FT) AND FZG LVLS ABV 14K FT. SHEAR IS MODEST W/STG WINDS GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STGR STMS. BETTER THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. CELLS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. WENT W/LIKELY POPS ACROSS CNTL & DOWNEAST AREAS W/JUST A CHC ACROSS THE N. BOOSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS NRN AREAS WHERE MORE SUN IS POSSIBLE. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 03Z AS SFC TROF & VORTICITY MAX MOVE ON TO THE E. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FROM LAST NIGHT W/THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF. HOWEVER...MINS & DEWPOINTS WILL STILL RUN IN THE 60S. WENT AHEAD & CARRIED FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SAT W/ LATEST 00Z MODEL SUITE TIMING IN GUD AGREEMENT W/ ERLY RUN... APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON TAP FOR THE FA AND HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS... TDS REMAIN QUITE JUICY THRU SAT AND STENGTH OF FRONT...SOME UPPER SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE FCST SOUNDING PROFILES EVEN SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE A POSSIBILITY... IN ANY CASE...C0NVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM NW TO SE LATER SAT AND SAT EVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES S AND E OF THE FA. DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE SAT NGT INTO SUN... && .AVIATION... AM FOG/STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ATTM AND XPCT THIS TO DISSIPATE THIS AM AS HEATING/MIXING TAKE OVER. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTN W/ HINT OF CONVECTION FROM HUL S. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR XPCTD AGAIN TNGT W/ LITTLE CHANGE IN BL CONDS... && .MARINE... WENT AHEAD & HOISTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/SEAS FCST TO GO TO 6 FT LATER TODAY. WAVEWATCH WAS HANDLING THINGS PER 06Z SO THE DECISION WAS TO LEAN W/IT. WRF12 WINDS WERE USED W/ADJUSTMENTS. BROUGHT WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ050 FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...HEWITT LONG TERM/MARINE...KHW AVIATION...KHW/WEITLICH me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 343 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .DISCUSSION...05Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER MESSY SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH SOME FRONTAL FEATURES HIDDEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WAVY SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WESTWARD TO NEAR DTX...NORTHERN IN/IL AND INTO MN. 500MB TROUGH AXIS LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...RUNNING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN IL/MO/KS. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...ONE TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.P. THAT HAVE DIED OUT...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SLOT...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MOVE NE OVER SAGINAW BAY TOWARDS ARENAC COUNTY JUST AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 400-200MB DIVERGENCE. OVER NW LOWER/EASTERN UPPER...WHERE SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING CLOSE TO THEIR DEWPOINTS IF THEY HAVE NOT DONE ALREADY...AND PLACES LIKE AT HOUGHTON LAKE/BELLAIRE HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT INTO 1/2SM FOG. EXPECT MORE PLACES ESPECIALLY OVER NW LOWER TO GET IN ON THE FOG ACTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEN THE ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECASTS CONCERNS THEREFORE REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY...500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER MICHIGAN. AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN MN BY 00Z...STILL QUITE AWAY FROM THE CWA. SO THAT LEAVES MESOSCALE EFFECTS VIA LAKE BREEZE FOR ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW MEETING NE LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE HURON. 950MB WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN UPPER WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THERE. A SURFACE PARCEL 90/64 OVER NE LOWER GENERATES 1000 J/KG SB CAPE WITH NO CIN...BUT NO ML CAPE. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WE MIX OUT TODAY AS THE NAM SOUNDING SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER 50S. THIS SEEMS LOW WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL...CAN SEE LOWER 60S THOUGH. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE CAP AT ABOUT 625MB SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER CONTINUES TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER POPPING UP. MPC LATER PERIODS...500MB RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL REMAIN IN WNW FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING AN OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT ALONG FOR THE RIDE. AS IS TYPICAL...WE/LL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...ALL WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY WOBBLES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY STORMY PATTERN...AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE MEAN FEATURES. MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON FINE DETAILS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IT/S UPSCALE FEEDBACKS ONTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT DRIER NAM FOR TONIGHT. GIVEN MARGINAL FORCING THE LAKES SHOULD TAKE A BIG BITE OUT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. AND CAPPING WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE ELEVATED CAPE AND ALLOW STORMS TO TRANSITION TO ELEVATED. BEYOND THAT... PREDICTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES AS EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF STORMS DEPENDS TREMENDOUSLY ON EARLIER CONVECTION. TONIGHT...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF DULUTH TO CENTRAL UPPER MI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEFINITELY REACH EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE EVENING. TO THE SOUTH PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED BY 0-6KM MEAN WIND STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT. WILL REDUCE PRECIP COVERAGE A BIT IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT STILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS IN ORDER IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN NW LOWER...WHERE FORCING FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH TO UTILIZE LINGERING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TO THE SE...MUCAPES OVERNIGHT NEAR 1K J/KG ARE COUNTERED BY CIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100J/KG. SO QUITE UNCERTAIN WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SE-WARD INTO THE WARM AIR (COLD FRONT WON/T GET MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE STRAITS). THUS A 20 POP SEEMS APPROPRIATE IN THE SE ZONES OVERNIGHT. SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE EVENING. BUT SUB-800MB WARM AIR/CAPPING MAKES THIS QUITE UNCERTAIN... ESPECIALLY GIVEN MARINE INFLUENCES IN THOSE SPOTS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP EARLY IN THE EVENING. BULK SHEAR IS ALSO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AT 25-30KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND FREEZING LEVELS WAY UP NEAR 15K FEET. SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS SLIGHT RISK UPSTREAM...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATURDAY...POORLY DEFINED BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOWER MI. SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT IN GENERAL NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE GENERAL 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL POOL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN 87/69 SURFACE PARCEL SUPPORTS MLCAPES 2-2.5K J/KG...WHICH IS A LOT. THERE IS NO CAP...THOUGH THIS BE THE MODELS ERODING THE WARMER/DRY CAP BELOW 800MB TOO FAST. STILL...THE WEAK COLD FRONT...LAKE BREEZES...AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH PAST ANY WEAK CAP IN PLACE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE SCT POPS NEAR/SOUTH OF M-72...CHANCE NORTH WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS. MLCAPES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A SVR THREAT EVEN THOUGH BULK SHEAR ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER SAT NIGHT...AND INTO AND PERHAPS THRU EASTERN UPPER MI ON SUNDAY. CONVECTION FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY GIVEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STILL WELL UPSTREAM. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH PERIODS. BECOMING HOT AND VERY STEAMY IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER ON SUNDAY... WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. MONDAY/TUESDAY STILL LOOK HOT WITH FLAT RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. ZOLTOWSKI && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 300 AM MDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY KGNT AROUND 08Z. PROFILER WINDS ALSO SHOW THE CIRCULATION...WITH A DEEP LAYER OF EAST/SOUTHEASTERLIES AT KTCC AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT AZTEC. RUC PICKS UP ON 2 VORT MAXES ONE VICINITY OF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...A SECOND BETWEEN KTCC AND KROW. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE EASTERN VORT MAX WITHIN A FEW HOURS...BUT AT LEAST IT/S MUCH CLEARER THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE PER PREVIOUS GFS FORECAST. THE NAM IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE GFS...HOLDING BACK THE LOW/VORT MAX OR MAXES AND FINALLY LIFTING THEM NORTHEAST MONDAY. IN ANY EVENT...THESE FEATURES WILL MEANDER AROUND THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAKING FOR A BUSY WEEKEND CONVECTIVE WISE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW MAINTAINS CONTINUITY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAINERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL OPT FOR THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINS IN ZFP. AT LEAST THERE SHOULD BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON HEAT. BY SATURDAY WITH UPSLOPE WANES QUICKLY WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO PREVAIL IN THE PLAINS BY THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. IT/S DIFFICULT TO TRACK...BUT EITHER THE CURRENT LOW BACKS INTO ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...OR WHETHER THERE/S YET ANOTHER FEATURE POSSIBLY WHAT REMAINS OF EMILIA...WHICH BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PER THE GFS. AS IT TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL NEW MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOK FOR A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY START TO DRY OUT A LITTLE BY THEN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 90 65 93 64 / 20 20 20 30 GALLUP.......................... 85 58 84 57 / 40 30 40 50 GRANTS.......................... 84 57 83 56 / 50 40 40 40 GLENWOOD........................ 87 61 88 59 / 50 50 40 40 CHAMA........................... 81 48 79 46 / 30 30 30 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 82 53 84 56 / 60 40 40 40 RED RIVER....................... 72 44 73 43 / 40 30 30 30 TAOS............................ 79 50 83 50 / 50 40 30 30 SANTA FE........................ 81 54 83 57 / 50 40 40 40 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 82 57 84 58 / 50 40 40 30 ESPANOLA........................ 84 55 85 55 / 50 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 84 65 85 66 / 60 50 40 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 60 87 60 / 60 50 40 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 84 63 83 64 / 60 50 40 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 87 64 87 65 / 60 50 40 40 SOCORRO......................... 89 63 89 62 / 60 50 40 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 58 79 55 / 50 50 40 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 55 85 57 / 60 50 40 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 88 60 88 59 / 60 60 40 20 RUIDOSO......................... 84 56 84 54 / 60 60 40 40 RATON........................... 80 53 85 55 / 30 20 20 10 LAS VEGAS....................... 77 52 82 56 / 60 40 30 20 ROY............................. 83 57 85 59 / 40 20 20 10 CLAYTON......................... 85 63 91 64 / 30 20 20 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 88 62 91 61 / 50 30 20 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 87 65 93 67 / 40 30 20 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 89 67 92 66 / 40 40 20 20 CLOVIS.......................... 88 67 93 67 / 40 30 20 20 PORTALES........................ 90 66 94 68 / 40 30 20 20 ROSWELL......................... 90 67 95 69 / 50 40 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAY...THE LATEST 40KM RUC/IR LOOP AND THE WATER LOOP SHOWS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA AT 07Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED POTENTIALLY SVR TSRAS AND ESPECIALLY SOME REAL SOAKERS. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY 1.75-2"+ OVER THE FCST AREA. THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 2.14" AND A K-INDEX OF 40. THE PWAT VALUE IS 200% OF NORMAL...WHICH IS A COUPLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE AS FOLLOWS: A JET STREAK OF 60-75 KTS WHICH AT 18Z WOULD PUT THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND EXCELLENT 700 MB OMEGA COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THETA-E VALUES ARE IN THE 335K-350K RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 2-D PANEL LAYOUTS SHOW SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OFF THE GFS AND WRF FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS HAS MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTH OF ALY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RISES TO 40-45 KTS WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION IMPLIED. THE 850MB LLJ JET STRENGTHENS TO 35-40 KTS SOUTH OF ALY AFTER 18Z. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE U60 TO L70S RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOISTURE RICH...BUT WILL SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCUR AT THE SFC OR IN BOUNDARY LAYER ? THIS FACTOR COUPLED WITH REALLY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H850-500 AND H700-500 LAYERS MAY INHIBIT SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WE PHONE COLLABORATED WITH SPC THIS MORNING AFTER THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. WE FELT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALY FCST AREA WOULD BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR SEVERE CAPABILITY...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS OVER THE WRF. THE INSTABILITY AXIS OFF THE WRF WARRANTED THE NRN EXTENT. WE WILL BE PLACING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZFP PRODUCT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES MULTICELL CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY FIRE IN THE 16Z-19Z TIME FRAME. BACK TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLD-SCT FLASH FLOOD/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE HIGH PWATS, K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40. WE COLLABORATED WITH BUF...BGM AND BTV FOR A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL FELT THE THREAT WOULD NOT BE THERE IN A WIDESPREAD FORM. EVEN HPC CHIMED IN AND FELT 1-2" AMOUNTS IN A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW WOULD YIELD ISOLD FLASH FLOODING AT BEST. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PAINT 1-2.5" OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE FLOOD RAVAGED CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY IN A 6-12 HR WINDOW. THE ZONE FFG VALUES SHOULD HOLD THESE AMOUNTS...BUT IF 2-3" FALL IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS PROBLEMS MAY ARISE IN URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ON THE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. WE WILL COMMUNICATE THIS THREAT BELOW IN THE HYDRO SECTION AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FRI NIGHT...WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND CAN REG AND HAVE THE COOL FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY 01Z. THE WRF LINGERS THINGS LONGER...BUT ITS PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN WEAKER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH H850 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO +15/+16C. DEWPOINTS ONLY CRACK DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND NW FLOW KICK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. H850 TEMPS +17C-+18C WITH A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT PRODUCING COMPRESSIONAL/SUPERADIABATIC HEATING WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE U80 TO L90S IN THE VALLEYS. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SHRAS/TSRAS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WITH TERRAIN INDUCED INSTABILITY IN THE NW FLOW. ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WE WENT WITH A DRY SCENARIO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ENDING EARLY. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A SLOW MOVER WITH IT PRESSING SOUTHWARD IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER WITH LIMITED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...SO WE WENT WITH A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVY ANALYSIS ON THE POTENTIAL SHORT TERM SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR NY/PA ON MON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY PUSH IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR A DRY DAY ON MON. SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE IN THE GRIDS MON NIGHT-THU...AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO MID WEEK. TEMPS LOOK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH. && .AVIATION... A WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FROM ALB TO POU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SO ACKNOWLEDGING WITH VCSH. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KT WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER...RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY IN THE 75-100% RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST UPSTATE NEW YORK ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...MOST AREAS RECEIVED WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH. TODAY WILL FEATURE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL...AND EARLIER OBSERVED 6 HOURLY RAINFALLS IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN OUR REGION...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE DOUBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN...MEANING LOCAL POINT RAINFALLS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SINCE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONFINED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PEAKS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS THE LOWEST...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THREAT NOT QUITE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH...BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR ANYWHERE IN THE REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED ON THE LARGER RIVERS. LOCAL FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NY...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...NAS/WASULA HYDROLOGY...NAS ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 344 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .DISCUSSION... 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF PCPN TODAY. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT WITH H5 TROUGHING AND DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY. MOS POPS AND MODEL PCPN EFFICIENCIES LIKELY OR HIGHER IN NORTHWEST MID TN. IR SATELLITE OVERLAID WITH RUC SHOWS CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AT BASE OF H5 TROUGH...ALONG THE MID MS RVR. UPR HIGH THAT PLAYED A ROLE IN THU WEATHER REMAINS SOUTH TODAY...AS H5 TROUGH MOVES OVER MID TN. GFS40/NMM WRF SHOWS HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL. OHX WRF MODEL LESS SO WITH SWATH ACROSS NW OF METRO NASHVILLE. LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST MID TN TODAY...INCL NASHVILLE AT SOUTHERN END. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAV TEMPS A LITTLE TOO LOW. MODEL PCPN WATER VALUES REMAIN AOA 2 INCHES TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS. HIGHER MOISTURE MAY SHIFT SOUTH WITH UPR NW FLOW BACK SIDE OF TROUGH. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR APPROACHING SATURDAY WITH WEDGE OF DRY AIR BTW GREAT LAKES AND OH RVR. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN S AND E MID TN. GFS40 QPF SEEMS OVERDONE ON WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. AFTER THAT...WARM UPR HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVER MID TN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 28/00Z MEX WARM TEMPS ACCEPTED...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL POPS SLIGHT TO CHC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 88 73 88 72 / 60 30 40 20 CLARKSVILLE 85 72 89 71 / 70 30 30 20 CROSSVILLE 86 68 82 68 / 40 50 40 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 253 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THRU SATURDAY BUT THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BEST CHCS OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES. EASTERN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH LACK OF TRIGGERS AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT CUTTING DOWN ON INSTABILITY. TROPICAL VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA (AT LEAST IN THE WEST) SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS HANDLING ITS PROGRESS QUITE DIFFERENTLY...AS THEY HAVE ALL WEEK. THEN AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND COULD BRING SOME MCS ACTIVITY DOWN OUR WAY. VERY DIFFICULT LATELY TO TIME THE WAVES OR GET ANY GOOD RESOLUTION SO HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MAYBE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN GENERAL. LATEST GFS IS TRENDING DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH RIGHT NOW FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE. VERY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 AT TIMES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) AVIATION... MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV (BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT. KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT SKED. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS AC/CI AROUND. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS. AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .AVIATION... MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV (BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT. KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT SKED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS AC/CI AROUND. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS. AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON .FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ RCS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1210 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .UPDATE...MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG JUST ABOUT BURNED AWAY OVER THE S/SW PORTION OF THE CWA LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. UPSTREAM...AREA OF MID CLOUD COMING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN INTO GREEN BAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLIER IN THE MORNING BUT HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH JUST A FEW BLIPS LEFT ON MQT RADAR. BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE STRONGER BELT OF W/WNW FLOW ALOFT POISED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BRUSHING THE U.S. BORDER AND NRN GREAT LAKES. UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE...VERY WARM AIR NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE NOSING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL MN. 12Z APX SOUNDING LOOKING ON THE DRY SIDE BLO 700 MB WITH A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 15C AT 850 MB. BUT JUST ACROSS THE LAKE GRB SOUNDING MUCH MORE MOIST IN THE LOWER LAYERS AS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM NRN WISCONSIN BACK INTO MN/IA PER 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS. THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD...LAYING OUT FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN MN BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM UPSTREAM AIR WILL GRADUALLY NOSE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +18C TO +20C ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID LAYERS. BASED ON RELATIVELY DRY 12Z APX SOUNDING...WITH DAYTIME MIXING SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TUMBLE OFF A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO THE 50S. AND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED OFF TO MOIST CONVECTION FOR AWHILE. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL ALSO MAKE INROADS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS ENOUGH TO GET BY CAPPING LAYERS ALOFT. FROM A FORCING STANDPOINT NO HELP SYNOPTICALLY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE REGION. BUT MAY GET ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CONVERGING LAKE BREEZES. THUS...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THIS AREA AFTER 3PM OR SO. ALSO...STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE HURON SHORELINE MAY ALSO DO THE SAME AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. OTHERWISE...A WARM DAY ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS HITTING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND SOME HIGH BASED CU FORMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ADAM && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 DISCUSSION...05Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER MESSY SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH SOME FRONTAL FEATURES HIDDEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WAVY SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WESTWARD TO NEAR DTX...NORTHERN IN/IL AND INTO MN. 500MB TROUGH AXIS LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...RUNNING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN IL/MO/KS. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...ONE TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.P. THAT HAVE DIED OUT...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SLOT...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MOVE NE OVER SAGINAW BAY TOWARDS ARENAC COUNTY JUST AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 400-200MB DIVERGENCE. OVER NW LOWER/EASTERN UPPER...WHERE SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING CLOSE TO THEIR DEWPOINTS IF THEY HAVE NOT DONE ALREADY...AND PLACES LIKE AT HOUGHTON LAKE/BELLAIRE HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT INTO 1/2SM FOG. EXPECT MORE PLACES ESPECIALLY OVER NW LOWER TO GET IN ON THE FOG ACTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEN THE ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECASTS CONCERNS THEREFORE REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY...500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER MICHIGAN. AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN MN BY 00Z...STILL QUITE AWAY FROM THE CWA. SO THAT LEAVES MESOSCALE EFFECTS VIA LAKE BREEZE FOR ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW MEETING NE LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE HURON. 950MB WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN UPPER WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THERE. A SURFACE PARCEL 90/64 OVER NE LOWER GENERATES 1000 J/KG SB CAPE WITH NO CIN...BUT NO ML CAPE. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WE MIX OUT TODAY AS THE NAM SOUNDING SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER 50S. THIS SEEMS LOW WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL...CAN SEE LOWER 60S THOUGH. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE CAP AT ABOUT 625MB SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER CONTINUES TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER POPPING UP. MPC LATER PERIODS...500MB RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL REMAIN IN WNW FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING AN OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT ALONG FOR THE RIDE. AS IS TYPICAL...WE/LL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...ALL WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY WOBBLES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY STORMY PATTERN...AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE MEAN FEATURES. MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON FINE DETAILS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IT/S UPSCALE FEEDBACKS ONTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT DRIER NAM FOR TONIGHT. GIVEN MARGINAL FORCING THE LAKES SHOULD TAKE A BIG BITE OUT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. AND CAPPING WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE ELEVATED CAPE AND ALLOW STORMS TO TRANSITION TO ELEVATED. BEYOND THAT... PREDICTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES AS EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF STORMS DEPENDS TREMENDOUSLY ON EARLIER CONVECTION. TONIGHT...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF DULUTH TO CENTRAL UPPER MI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEFINITELY REACH EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE EVENING. TO THE SOUTH PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED BY 0-6KM MEAN WIND STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT. WILL REDUCE PRECIP COVERAGE A BIT IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT STILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS IN ORDER IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN NW LOWER...WHERE FORCING FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH TO UTILIZE LINGERING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TO THE SE...MUCAPES OVERNIGHT NEAR 1K J/KG ARE COUNTERED BY CIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100J/KG. SO QUITE UNCERTAIN WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SE-WARD INTO THE WARM AIR (COLD FRONT WON/T GET MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE STRAITS). THUS A 20 POP SEEMS APPROPRIATE IN THE SE ZONES OVERNIGHT. SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE EVENING. BUT SUB-800MB WARM AIR/CAPPING MAKES THIS QUITE UNCERTAIN... ESPECIALLY GIVEN MARINE INFLUENCES IN THOSE SPOTS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP EARLY IN THE EVENING. BULK SHEAR IS ALSO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AT 25-30KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND FREEZING LEVELS WAY UP NEAR 15K FEET. SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS SLIGHT RISK UPSTREAM...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE. SATURDAY...POORLY DEFINED BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOWER MI. SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT IN GENERAL NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE GENERAL 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL POOL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN 87/69 SURFACE PARCEL SUPPORTS MLCAPES 2-2.5K J/KG...WHICH IS A LOT. THERE IS NO CAP...THOUGH THIS BE THE MODELS ERODING THE WARMER/DRY CAP BELOW 800MB TOO FAST. STILL...THE WEAK COLD FRONT...LAKE BREEZES...AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH PAST ANY WEAK CAP IN PLACE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE SCT POPS NEAR/SOUTH OF M-72...CHANCE NORTH WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS. MLCAPES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A SVR THREAT EVEN THOUGH BULK SHEAR ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER SAT NIGHT...AND INTO AND PERHAPS THRU EASTERN UPPER MI ON SUNDAY. CONVECTION FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY GIVEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STILL WELL UPSTREAM. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH PERIODS. BECOMING HOT AND VERY STEAMY IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER ON SUNDAY... WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. MONDAY/TUESDAY STILL LOOK HOT WITH FLAT RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. ZOLTOWSKI && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OBSERVED HERE AND ON SATELLITE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF CWA. THUS WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE BERKSHIRES. WILL ALSO GO A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON SKY COVER IN THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL. MORNING ALY SOUNDING SHOW PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...2.04 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS DESCRIBED BELOW STILL A CONCERN. HAVE POSTED A SMALL STREAM ADVISORY FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR NO FLASH FLOODING THERE AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MODIFYING 12Z ALY SOUNDING TO 85/72 YIELDS CAPE OF ABOUT 2KJ/KG. EARLY MORNING ALY THINKING WAS THAT SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MORE OF A SOUTH HALF CWA ISSUE...THAN ENTIRE REGION. MORNING SPC UPDATE CONCURRED...ESSENTIALLY WRAPPING SEVERE THREAT FROM CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH. IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME SUNSHINE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS...THEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006/ SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAY...THE LATEST 40KM RUC/IR LOOP AND THE WATER LOOP SHOWS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA AT 07Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED POTENTIALLY SVR TSRAS AND ESPECIALLY SOME REAL SOAKERS. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY 1.75-2"+ OVER THE FCST AREA. THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 2.14" AND A K-INDEX OF 40. THE PWAT VALUE IS 200% OF NORMAL...WHICH IS A COUPLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE AS FOLLOWS: A JET STREAK OF 60-75 KTS WHICH AT 18Z WOULD PUT THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND EXCELLENT 700 MB OMEGA COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THETA-E VALUES ARE IN THE 335K-350K RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 2-D PANEL LAYOUTS SHOW SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OFF THE GFS AND WRF FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS HAS MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTH OF ALY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RISES TO 40-45 KTS WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION IMPLIED. THE 850MB LLJ JET STRENGTHENS TO 35-40 KTS SOUTH OF ALY AFTER 18Z. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE U60 TO L70S RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOISTURE RICH...BUT WILL SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCUR AT THE SFC OR IN BOUNDARY LAYER ? THIS FACTOR COUPLED WITH REALLY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H850-500 AND H700-500 LAYERS MAY INHIBIT SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WE PHONE COLLABORATED WITH SPC THIS MORNING AFTER THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. WE FELT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALY FCST AREA WOULD BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR SEVERE CAPABILITY...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS OVER THE WRF. THE INSTABILITY AXIS OFF THE WRF WARRANTED THE NRN EXTENT. WE WILL BE PLACING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZFP PRODUCT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT SOUTHWARD. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES MULTICELL CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY FIRE IN THE 16Z-19Z TIME FRAME. BACK TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLD-SCT FLASH FLOOD/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE HIGH PWATS, K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40. WE COLLABORATED WITH BUF...BGM AND BTV FOR A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL FELT THE THREAT WOULD NOT BE THERE IN A WIDESPREAD FORM. EVEN HPC CHIMED IN AND FELT 1-2" AMOUNTS IN A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW WOULD YIELD ISOLD FLASH FLOODING AT BEST. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PAINT 1-2.5" OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE FLOOD RAVAGED CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY IN A 6-12 HR WINDOW. THE ZONE FFG VALUES SHOULD HOLD THESE AMOUNTS...BUT IF 2-3" FALL IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS PROBLEMS MAY ARISE IN URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ON THE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. WE WILL COMMUNICATE THIS THREAT BELOW IN THE HYDRO SECTION AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FRI NIGHT...WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND CAN REG AND HAVE THE COOL FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY 01Z. THE WRF LINGERS THINGS LONGER...BUT ITS PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN WEAKER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH H850 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO +15/+16C. DEWPOINTS ONLY CRACK DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND NW FLOW KICK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. H850 TEMPS +17C-+18C WITH A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT PRODUCING COMPRESSIONAL/SUPERADIABATIC HEATING WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE U80 TO L90S IN THE VALLEYS. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SHRAS/TSRAS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WITH TERRAIN INDUCED INSTABILITY IN THE NW FLOW. ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WE WENT WITH A DRY SCENARIO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ENDING EARLY. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A SLOW MOVER WITH IT PRESSING SOUTHWARD IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER WITH LIMITED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...SO WE WENT WITH A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVY ANALYSIS ON THE POTENTIAL SHORT TERM SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR NY/PA ON MON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY PUSH IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR A DRY DAY ON MON. SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE IN THE GRIDS MON NIGHT-THU...AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO MID WEEK. TEMPS LOOK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH. AVIATION... A WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FROM ALB TO POU THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SO ACKNOWLEDGING WITH VCSH. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KT WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER...RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY IN THE 75-100% RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST UPSTATE NEW YORK ON SATURDAY. HYDROLOGY...MOST AREAS RECEIVED WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH. TODAY WILL FEATURE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL...AND EARLIER OBSERVED 6 HOURLY RAINFALLS IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN OUR REGION...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE DOUBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN...MEANING LOCAL POINT RAINFALLS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SINCE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONFINED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PEAKS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS THE LOWEST...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THREAT NOT QUITE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH...BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR ANYWHERE IN THE REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED ON THE LARGER RIVERS. LOCAL FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NY...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...OKEEFE ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...A HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES AAT9 AM RUNNING IN THE MID 90S ALONG COAST WITH UPPER 90S REPORTED AT WHITEVILLE. WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S ON THE COAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DEW POINT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S WHEN MIXING BEGINS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER INLAND BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BELIEVE ADVISORY CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED. CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LESSEN MY PEAK HEATING TIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW THE INLAND TROUGH SO EXPECT LESS COVERAGE FROM THE CONVECTION. 12 UTC RUC SHOWING A SHORTWAVE OFF THE COAST MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. SO EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY THEN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SUFFICE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND ONLY MESO-SCALE LIFTING WILL BE FROM THE SEA-BREEZE. && .AVIATION...SOME CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HELP TO CREATE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17-18Z. DECENT OMEGA OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL FIRE CONVECTION IN THAT REGION 18-19Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH JUST ABOVE MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BRING FOG INTO THE PICTURE. GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 4-5 NM. && .MARINE... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A SW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE BACKGROUND FLOW AS DETERMINED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 10-15 KT OR SO...BUT THIS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEABREEZE. MOS GUIDANCE AT MYR ACTUALLY SHOWS 16-17 KT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED BY 21Z...WHICH MAY TRANSLATE TO WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT NEAR THE BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FT BOTH NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE AS MEASURED AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...THE LEJEUNE BUOY...AND THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. INCREASING WINDS AND AN INCREASING SE SWELL WILL PUSH COMBINED SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL ADD NEARSHORE DETAIL FOR WINDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ087-096-097-099>101 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY. SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ024-032>034-039-046 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAWKINS AVIATION...43 MARINE...TRA nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MESOANALYSIS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CWA...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THUNDERSTORM CHECKLIST INDICATES AN AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT FULL OF INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY POTENTIAL. LIFTED INDICES FALL TO -8 ACCORDING TO THE MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING...WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 4000 J/KG. COMPARING THE MODIFIED CHS AND JAX SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONGER CAP OVER THE GEORGIA ZONES...WHICH MAY INHIBIT OR DELAY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY PREVALENT ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE FROM AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OFFSHORE. WOULD EXPECT CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES TO BE THE FIRST IN THE CWA TO SEE POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION POSSIBLE...ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S IS REACHED. FIRST CONVECTION OF THE DAY WILL BE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL BE SLOWING MOVING IN NATURE DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW...SO FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY BE A PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE DAY. MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY REPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH INLAND GEORGIA ZONES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES TO NECESSARY THIS MORNING. && .MARINE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT MARINE SITES INDICATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS A LITTLE LOW WITH WIND SPEEDS...AS RUC AND NAM MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT WINDS WILL REACH 15 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...MAINTAINING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .AVIATION...SCATTERED CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTLINE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...AND CONTINUING AFTER BOUNDARY PASSAGE WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF CB IN TAFS...WITH THE INTENTION OF UPDATING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO BETTER PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HEAT ADVISORY GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...HEAT ADVISORY SCZ040-042>045-047>051. MARINE...NONE. && $$ 79 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1039 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE FOLLOWING: A TROF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM; A SHORTWAVE HAS EJECTED FROM THIS FEATURE AND WILL GRADUALLY CREEP TOWARD THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL FAIRLY WARM...ALTHOUGH 50H TEMPERATURE AT PEACHTREE CITY INDICATES A COOL POOL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INITIALLY MOIST AIRMASS...YET STREAMLINES WOULD ADVECT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT TO DOWNSLOPE INTO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROF APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP SHOP A LITTLE WEST OF YESTERDAY/S POSITION BUT PROGD TO REMAIN NEAR OUR EASTERN ZONES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MIXED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN UNTIL LATE...SUPPORTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S MOST AREAS; WE ACTUALLY BUMPED UP MAXES A DEGREE IN THE UPSTATE. APPEARS ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING WILL INTERACT WITH THE ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO BRING DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S AGAIN PER WS-WRF/RUC SOLUTION IN THE SOUTHWEST CWFA. THUS...INSTABILITY MAY BE TEMPERED AGAIN IN THE SOUTH DESPITE THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AS A GREATER LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON. DOES NOT APPEAR CHANGES TO PROGD HEAT INDEX ARE MAJOR...WITH THAT INDEX TOPPING OUT NEAR 100 OR SO IN CERTAIN SPOTS. ONLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION-WISE WAS TO NUDGE AFTERNOON POPS TO CHANCE ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION...AND INTO THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY BE GREATER THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD THE LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. WE KEPT ISOLATED WORDING ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL LOW AREN/T DOING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AR. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PICK THIS LOW UP LATER TONIGHT AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE SRN MID- ATLANTIC AND WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE REGION. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC. THE NAM DOESN/T HAVE ANY PCPN AT ALL OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE EVENING...WHILE THE GFS MASS FIELDS GO A LITTLE WONKY WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER...GFS MOS POPS ARE ALSO QUITE LOW TODAY. THEREFORE...THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL HAVE A MENTIONABLE POP IN THE FIRST PERIOD WILL BE THE WESTERN MTNS AND AREAS EAST OF CHARLOTTE. TEMPS WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MANY FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE MID 90S...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT...WE SHOULD NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH IMPLY THAT A NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES IN THE NOSE OF A FAIRLY STRONG LLVL JET. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES...AND HAS A MORE COHERENT AREA OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...BUT IN EITHER CASE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE TO THE NORTHWEST. EACH MODEL DEVELOPS A SMALL CUTOFF LOW AS THIS HAPPENS. THE GFS/S IS JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST...WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO DANVILLE. THE NAM SOLUTION IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN MODELS...SO I WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SHORT WAVE MIXES US OUT...WITH ALMOST NO CAPE ON THE NAM PLAN VIEW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE EAST OF THE REGION. LLVL THICKNESSES WILL BE A GOOD 10 METERS LOWER ON SATURDAY...BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY STILL PUSH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TO 90 OR HIGHER. SUNDAYS FORECAST DEPENDS UPON WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN SATURDAY...AND WHILE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH THE NEIGHBORS...I HAVE MY DOUBTS AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND LAYER RH/S CONTINUE TO LOWER. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP SHOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AVIATION... NIL AMD KAVL TAF UNTIL COMMUNICATION PROBLEM WITH THE ASOS IS CORRECTED. SOME HIGHER LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LOW CROSSOVER TEMPS TO PRECLUDE MUCH FOG EAST OF THE MTNS AND WILL GO WITH JUST A TEMPO VFR BR THREAT AT BOTH KCLT/KAND. SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG ALREADY NOTED IN THE SW NC MTNS...AND WITH THINNING OBSERVED IN HIGHER LVL BKN/OVC...SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MVFR FOG AT KAVL. BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY FIRED DEEP CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND JUST EAST OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION...DPVA TO BE IN THE INCREASE ACRS THE WESTERN CWFA THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL S/WV ROTATES IN. SO...OVERALL CHANCES FOR ANY TERMINAL SEEING DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD SEEMS TO LIE WITH KAVL...AND WILL INTRODUCE VCSH STARTING LATE IN AFTERNOON AND RUN THROUGH END OF PERIOD. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1051 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .UPDATE... BY LATE MORNING, BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD PENETRATED ALL OF NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WAS CONTINUING TO ADVANCE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND RUC FORECASTS SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS AND DEEPEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CORRIDOR EXISTS FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX HEATING PERIOD. IN ADDITION, LOW LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH 850 MB WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 KTS (WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER). ALSO, EXPECT A GOOD 200MB DIVERGENT AND DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BEST SPEED DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BEST DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTH (IN BETWEEN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARK-LA-TEX REGION). AS A RESULT, HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE NORTHWEST AND EXTENDED THE 60 PERCENT POPS TO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE, HAVE ALSO INCREASED AFTEROON WINDS AND ADDED MENTION OF GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH PWA'S THIS AFTERNOON, CLOSE TO TWO INCHES. LI'S WILL BE IN THE -2 TO -5 RANGE, WITH SWEAT INDEX BETWEEN 250 AND 350. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 19 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1127 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... INSTABILITY IS INCREASING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OR NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MSAS IS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES ALREADY DOWN TO -6. SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF ARKANSAS WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE RAISED THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MODIFIED GSO SOUNDING. ALSO INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 635 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) AVIATION... CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDS TODAY BUT WITH A GOOD 10 KT WIND FROM THE WSW. TNGT SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD PREVAIL IN THE WEST ESP LATE. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THRU SATURDAY BUT THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BEST CHCS OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES. EASTERN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH LACK OF TRIGGERS AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT CUTTING DOWN ON INSTABILITY. TROPICAL VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA (AT LEAST IN THE WEST) SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS HANDLING ITS PROGRESS QUITE DIFFERENTLY...AS THEY HAVE ALL WEEK. THEN AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND COULD BRING SOME MCS ACTIVITY DOWN OUR WAY. VERY DIFFICULT LATELY TO TIME THE WAVES OR GET ANY GOOD RESOLUTION SO HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MAYBE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN GENERAL. LATEST GFS IS TRENDING DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH RIGHT NOW FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE. VERY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 AT TIMES. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) AVIATION... MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV (BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT. KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT SKED. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS AC/CI AROUND. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS. AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ AMS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 635 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .AVIATION... CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDS TODAY BUT WITH A GOOD 10 KT WIND FROM THE WSW. TNGT SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD PREVAIL IN THE WEST ESP LATE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THRU SATURDAY BUT THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BEST CHCS OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES. EASTERN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH LACK OF TRIGGERS AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT CUTTING DOWN ON INSTABILITY. TROPICAL VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA (AT LEAST IN THE WEST) SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS HANDLING ITS PROGRESS QUITE DIFFERENTLY...AS THEY HAVE ALL WEEK. THEN AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND COULD BRING SOME MCS ACTIVITY DOWN OUR WAY. VERY DIFFICULT LATELY TO TIME THE WAVES OR GET ANY GOOD RESOLUTION SO HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MAYBE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN GENERAL. LATEST GFS IS TRENDING DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH RIGHT NOW FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE. VERY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 AT TIMES. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) AVIATION... MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV (BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT. KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT SKED. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS AC/CI AROUND. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS. AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 228 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS LATE SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST EAST OF ST. JOHNS ARIZONA...RIGHT ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DROPPING OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM THAT EXTEND FROM WEST OF FLAGSTAFF TO AROUND PAYSON AND TO NORTH OF GLOBE. ALL OF THE STORMS ARE HEADED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX WAS ISSUED BY SPC WHICH INCLUDES MY PORTION OF PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR AN HOUR OR SO GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NEAR NOGALES TO THE RUCKER CANYON. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE BURN AREA FOR THE 103 FIRE. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES EXPECT TO SEE SOME STRONG IF NOT SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MY FORECAST AREA CAN'T RULE OUT SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREAT FOR MOST OF MY FORECAST AREA WILL BE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT RAIN TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE MODELS INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS IN NO HURRY TO LEAVE WE SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT RAINFALL OCCURRING AS IMPULSES FROM THE UPPER LOW TRIGGER STORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN DESERTS OF ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 8 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING. PLENTY OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH...BUT THE SANTA CATALINA'S RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL WITH 13 REPORTING STATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN RECEIVING OVER ONE INCH IN THE PAST 12 TO 16 HOURS. FOR A COMPLETE LISTING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND THE REGION REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST THIS MORNING (AWIPS HEADER PHXPNSTWC; OR REFER TO OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON). BY SUNDAY THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION...BUT SHOULD BE IN A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER STATE. THEREFORE...EXPECTING THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE A BIT LESS AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS WELL SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SHOULD BE LACKING BY THEN. BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PERHAPS WESTERN ARIZONA. FOR NOW I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST... AND LOW END OF CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGS F THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WILL THEN INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE LOWER 90S AND CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST DESERT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT KTUS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035 (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY... SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM COUNTY)...WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO OODHAM NATION...EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND COCHISE COUNTY) UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING. && $$ MOLLERE WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 940 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND THE AFTERNOON HEATING...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ...TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...THAT COULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF. FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ARE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A DRIER FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... EARLY MORNING SATL AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATED THE CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MOSTLY DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WAS WELL-INITIALIZED BY MODELS. GFS AT 06Z PUT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN NM...AND FORECASTS A POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST AZ TONIGHT. IN FACT A CLOSED LOW AT 700 AND 500MB SETS UP BETWEEN DOUGLAS AND SHOW LOW AT 12Z. NOT OVER CNTRL AND WRN ARIZONA. BUT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS A 500-300MB JET SETS UP OVER SOUTH-CNTRL AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST RUC SHOWS A VORT LOBE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE PARENT LOW AT 15Z...AND DROPS THIS SYSTEM TO A PARKER-PHOENIX-SHOW LOW LINE BY 00Z. THE OTHER INGREDIENT THAT IS A BIG PLAYER IS PRECIP WATER. 12Z RAOBS HAVE ALL SHOWN A DECREASE IN PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW CALL FOR RAMPING UP THE P-WATER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONGER UVV COMING INTO THE CWA LATER TODAY. DEW POINTS STILL VERY HIGH...AND 850MB DP OF 18C PER MODEL SOUNDING COULD SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL-SEVERE STORMS. I LIKE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ON LATEST SPC CONV OUTLOOK SINCE WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PER SFC OBS AT LUKE AND KPHX. HARD TO SAY IF THE CAP AT ABOUT 18K FEET WILL BE BROKEN...AND IF IT HEATS UP SUFFICIENTLY...TO WARRANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS POINT I DOUBT IT. && .LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WESTERLIES MAKING AN INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE COASTAL STATES. HOWEVER...IT IS TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER MOISTURE DECREASE FROM THE WEST. BESIDES THE SLOW DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TENDS NOT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS ON THE LOWER DESERTS. A CAVEAT WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME DYNAMICAL INFLUENCE. WITH SIMILAR MODEL TRENDS...ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND CONTINUE TO SHOW DOWNTREND IN POPS AND CLOUDS AND MORE DIURNAL SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT EXPECTED WEATHER. SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...ZONES 21 THROUGH 24 AND 26 THROUGH 28... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. CA...NONE && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX SIPPLE az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 210 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .DISCUSSION... CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON FOCUS ON HEAT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND WHEN THE HEAT WAVE MIGHT BREAK. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY CURRENT PACKAGE HAS POPS IN SOUTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN AND ATMOSPHERE CAPPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RUC ANALYSIS HAS FINAL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HEADING TOWARD AREA. DO NOT WANT TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BUT WILL DOWNPLAY BY REDUCING ALL AREAS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FOG WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE QUANTITY OF WATER WE HAVE HAD...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEARING. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTENSIFIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMALS SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES BETWEEN 29/00Z AND 30/00Z. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER REGION WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ENHANCING DEW POINTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 25C. WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE...TEMPS MAY REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ISOLATED TRIPLE DIGIT READING MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE. WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL CLOSE IN ON THE 105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND ASSESS WHETHER AN ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE THAN THE PREFERRED ECMWF AND THIS SHOULD GIVE THE REGION TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CURRENT MAV/MEX GUIDANCE AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A SLOW INCREASE IN MEAN CLOUD COVER AND A DECREASE IN HIGHS. COMPARED TO THE 27/00Z RUNS...THE 28/00Z RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ BARKER il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... MAIN FCST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE AND SVR POTENTIAL. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GRT LAKES BTWN THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RDG OVER THE SW AND A TROF OVER HUDSON BAY. MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE W FROM SRN SASK INTO NRN MT. AT THE SFC(18Z)...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE W HLF OF UPR MI WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S LEADING TO MLCAPES AOA 2K J/KG. LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE BNDRY HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED TSTMS OVER N CNTRL UPR MI WHILE ISOLD TSRA HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BTWN KMQT AND KIMT. IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING TSMS OVER W AND CNTRL UPR MI EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING WITH STORMS MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS WITH GREATER COVERAGE. FAVORABLE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15K FT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND EVEN ISOLD TORNADOES. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH WARM FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA AND AXIS OF FRONT STILL IN QUESTION COULDN'T JUSTIFY CHANGING GOING WX. ALTHOUGH GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 HPA TEMPS I DID DROP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON SAT AND SUN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR THOUGH AS MORE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED COULD EASILY BUST THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S. AGAIN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL PROVE TO DICTATE HIGHS...THOUGH GIVEN DPTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S...90 DEGRESS VS. 95 DEGREES WILL STILL FEEL MISERABLE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EASILY INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 100. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS TO HIGHLIGHT HEAT. MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LEFT WEATHER FORECAST THE SAME FOR MON AND TUE. COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH CWA SOMETIME TUE AFTN. ON WED 850-500 HPA DIV Q FIELDS/500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS INDICATE STRONG AREA OF LIFT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRES TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. PUT IN 30 POPS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. BROUGHT DPTS DOWN A BIT AS IT LOOKS LIKE DECENT MIXING...TO 70 TO 80 HPA...COULD TAKE PLACE PER GFS SOUNDINGS. DIDN'T GO AS DRY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATED BUT KEPT DPTS IN THE MID 50S. CAN DEFINATELY SEE THESE GO LOWER EVEN INTO THE UPPER 40S...BUT WITH NW FLOW...NOT EXPECTING ADDTIONAL DRYING DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. WITH DPTS AS THEY ARE CAN GET RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...HOWEVER WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN WINDS SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ005-MIZ006-MIZ007-MIZ009- MIZ010-MIZ011-MIZ012-MIZ013-MIZ014-MIZ084-MIZ085. && $$ JLB(SHORT TERM) DJP(LONG TERM) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED 50H VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHILE THE GFS AND NAM DO NOT. CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING THIS FEATURE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND THE COASTAL BEND ON SATURDAY. GOES SOUNDER IMAGES DOES NOT INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE. SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO VICTORIA CROSSROADS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCEC RANGE OVER THE BAYS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SCEC RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BUILDS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NOT QUITE AS STRONG...DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS DECK WILL BE AFFECTING AS MUCH AN AREA AS THIS MORNING. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS FROM 08-14Z FOR THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS FROM ALI TO VCT. VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGD TO BE IN CONTROL SUN THROUGH WED LEADING TO A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ENVIRONMENT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE NE CWA FOR ISOL "STREAMER" SHRA'S IN THE MORNINGS AND AN ISOL TSRA OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND 20 POPS WILL EXTEND FARTHER S AND W THU THRU FRI. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUN THROUGH WED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND MARINE ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT RELAXES THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A "COLD" FRONT MOVES INTO N TX. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 94 75 94 77 / 10 20 10 10 10 VICTORIA 76 93 74 94 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 LAREDO 79 103 80 104 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 75 98 74 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 80 91 80 93 79 / 10 20 10 20 10 COTULLA 76 101 75 102 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 77 95 75 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT-TERM TE/81...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 147 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 .AVIATION... BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SORTH WAVE PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL LOWER CEILINGS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE BEST CHANE FOR RAIN AT A TAF SITE WILL BE FOR LWB AND LYH. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. BY THEN THE SHORT WAVE COMING INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGNIA. RAIN WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1127 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... INSTABILITY IS INCREASING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OR NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MSAS IS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES ALREADY DOWN TO -6. SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF ARKANSAS WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE RAISED THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MODIFIED GSO SOUNDING. ALSO INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 635 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) AVIATION... CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDS TODAY BUT WITH A GOOD 10 KT WIND FROM THE WSW. TNGT SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD PREVAIL IN THE WEST ESP LATE. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THRU SATURDAY BUT THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BEST CHCS OF RAIN/TSTMS WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES. EASTERN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH LACK OF TRIGGERS AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT CUTTING DOWN ON INSTABILITY. TROPICAL VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA (AT LEAST IN THE WEST) SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS HANDLING ITS PROGRESS QUITE DIFFERENTLY...AS THEY HAVE ALL WEEK. THEN AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND COULD BRING SOME MCS ACTIVITY DOWN OUR WAY. VERY DIFFICULT LATELY TO TIME THE WAVES OR GET ANY GOOD RESOLUTION SO HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MAYBE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN GENERAL. LATEST GFS IS TRENDING DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH RIGHT NOW FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE. VERY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 AT TIMES. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006) AVIATION... MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV (BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT. KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT SKED. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS AC/CI AROUND. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS. AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ AMS va