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FXUS04 KWBC 110630
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 11/1200 UTC THRU MAR 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...SWRN TX ENEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/SERN OK REGION...
SIGNIFICANT RNFL IS XPCD FM SWRN TX ENEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/SERN
OK REGION THIS PD..WITH MDL QPFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE STG SYS LIFTING NEWD INTO ERN
CANADA...THE MID TO UPR LVL FLO WL RMN OUT OF THE S-SW FM NRN
MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY..IN WHAT IS A WELL DEFINED
SRN BRANCH/SUBTROP STREAM ON RECENT SATL IMAGERY. S/WV ENERGY
WITHIN THIS SRN STREAM AND A SLY LLJ OFF THE WRN GULF WL OVRRUN
THE LOW LVL COLD AIR SINKING SWD INTO THE REGION ERY IN THE
PD..SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF OVRRNG PCPN ACRS A
LARGE PTN OF TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SERN OK. HVIEST RNFL AXIS
LIKELY JUST N OF H85 BNDRY STRETCHING FM THE BIG BEND ENEWD TWDS
CNTRL AR..WITH SUSTAINED 30KTS OF LLJ..PWS ABV 1 INCH AND TRAINING
OF RNFL ECHOES SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME 2-3 INCH AMTS WITHIN THIS
HVIEST RNFL AXIS. AS STATED ABV..THE NAM AND GFS QPFS WERE GENLY
SIMILAR..ALTHO DID BEEF THE NAM QPF UP A BIT VCNTY OF SWRN TX MORE
LIKE THE GFS SOLN. SOME WINTRY PCPN LIKELY ON THE NRN/NWRN FRINGE
OF THE PCPN SHIELD LT IN THE PD..OVR PTNS OF OK AND NRN AR..PLS
SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTRY PCPN POTNL.
...NEW ENG...
WITH THE H5 SYS FCST TO LIFT RATHER QUICKLY ENEWD THRU SERN CANADA
THIS PD..ASSOCTD FNTL SYS WL ALSO SWEEP RAPIDLY THRU NEW ENG DURG
THE DAY WED..TRIGGERING MSTLY LGT TO LCLY MDT PCPN..WITH MAINLY
RAINS OVR SRN NEW ENG BUT WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS CNTRL INTO
NRN ME. PWS AOA 1 INCH WL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AHD OF THE
CDFNT..WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HVIER PCPN RATES..BUT WITH THE
SYS BEING SO PROGRESSIVE..FELT THE GFS WAS A LTL TOO HVY WITH ITS
QPF OVR SRN NH AND ERN ME..AND LEANED TWDS SLGTLY LESSER QPF SOLNS
AS PER THE NAM..CANADIAN GEM AND 12Z ECMWF HIRES MDLS.
TERRY
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 12/12Z
0.01 515883 532854 545799 543749 542744 540734 533716 527703
522695 519692 516685 514683 508669 504653 500646 493632
484625 475614 471611 467610 459611 450613 446614 441616
433621 425625 414634 408638 403643 396651 385669 377680
357719 337751 336762 345763 353762 362758 368747 377729
380726 385723 388730 401746 400758 398768 396781 394786
390792 383799 375807 362822 358826 356831 352837 344853
338873 336882 333890 327900 323908 313921 304937 300944
294952 288958 283965 275977 269983 262987 252993 249995
247998 247003 248007 255013 261019 265024 271030 278036
280040 280044 279056 279062 282064 288065 292068 294075
295084 296087 299088 301088 311087 314091 318093 321091
324095 326100 327102 332103 335107 337110 342109 345107
346099 346094 352094 356091 357088 358084 356077 353072
350069 348065 346061 346055 347052 350049 358044 360040
361037 367999 362982 360965 362938 363899 365871 372837
380822 396808 415792 422786 434780 441776 444776 454775
462777 468780 472787 473791 473796 471806 466817 458826
455832 453835 450837 441844 433850 431857 435862 443866
450868 458872 461878 463887 465893 468900 472900 475898
480892 484890 489888 492887 500889 504890 509887 515883
0.25 535760 533749 530735 520710 505692 494686 481682 475671
473654 470640 462629 457630 452630 446632 442634 432643
424653 420658 418664 417669 419677 418683 416688 415700
415708 416712 419716 423723 423730 424733 426735 429733
437724 443720 448718 449723 451726 457725 462724 468721
473720 478719 483721 489734 496746 504756 509768 509783
509793 508799 507807 508818 510822 513824 518825 524823
529817 532811 534804 536790 537780 537773 535760
0.25 356914 353906 349901 345900 341900 334905 329912 325918
318930 304956 298968 290980 284992 281999 279007 281014
284020 293031 298037 303040 309039 315034 324023 331011
335003 338997 343982 348967 353953 356944 357936 357926
357916 356914
0.50 445679 444676 441673 440673 437674 434675 432677 430680
428684 428689 430691 431695 432695 435693 438692 441691
443689 445685 445684 445679
0.50 354932 353922 351914 348909 341908 334912 331917 324928
313950 302971 290991 288996 286004 288012 292018 299025
304029 308029 312026 325008 332997 337985 348961 351949
353942 354933 354932
1.00 349937 348929 346924 342921 335924 331928 329932 323942
315960 305978 296994 295000 296006 300014 305017 308017
313014 317009 327994 336976 341966 345955 349937
1.50 344945 345938 344933 342931 336931 331937 327944 320957
315968 305987 301995 300001 303006 305009 310010 314007
321999 327988 330981 334975 337967 342952 344945
2.00 325959 317974 311989 309994 309998 312000 315999 321991
333968 338951 339944 338941 333943 325959
$$
