EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 935 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR STILL HUNG UP OVER FAR NRN FL ATTM. BNDRY SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHRT WV DEPECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMG AS WELL AS RUC/MESO-ETA. BNDRY SHOULD SLIP THRU FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AS WV GOES BY...BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREV FCST. MAIN CONCERN HERE IS MIN TEMPS. AS LOW DEW PT AIR ARRIVES TEMPS SHUD FALL QUICKLY SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINIMAL ADJ TO TEMPS OVER NRN FCST AREA. WILL RAISE TEMPS TO THE S AS WELL WHERE SURGE MAY BE MODIFIED SLGTLY BY TRAJ...HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIT THE LONGEST...AND BNDRY MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE. THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE THAT HAS REVISED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY SINCE 12Z GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO REMOVE POPS FROM FCST. EVE SHRA ACTVTY HAS DIMINISHED AND AS LAND AREAS STABILIZE CHANCES OF SHRA TO REDEVELOP ALNG BNDRY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL. MARINE...STRONGER WINDS BEHIND COLD SURGE HAVE YET TO ARRIVE IN NRN WATERS. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE AND PRESENCE OF SHRT WV MAY DELAY ONSET SOMEWHAT BUT STILL SHUD MAKE IT INTO SRN WATERS BY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA BUT DELAY TIMING OF STRONGER WINDS SLIGHTLY. .MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOTTMAN AVIATION/FIRE WX...KELLY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 750 PM MDT TUE OCT 16 2001 WL BE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER ENTIRE CWFA. LATEST LOW LVL PROFILER WINDS...PRESSURE FALLS...AND LATEST RUC... SUPPORT/INDICATE THAT SFC TROF WL PUSH ABT HALF WAY INTO CWFA BY 12Z. SO WL NOT ONLY HAVE TO UPDATE FIRST PERIOD FOR WINDS TO BE MORE WLY...BUT WL HAVE TO ADJUST SECOND PERIOD BASED ON ABV. DPS AND WLY WINDS SUPPORT CURRENT MINS. .GLD...NONE. BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 149 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 RUC40 AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER OHIO. 900-750MB RH FIELDS PICK UP ON CURRENT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION WELL...WITH CLEARING LINE FROM KSPI TO NEAR KBNA. 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -28C AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7 OVER CLEAR AREAS...AND SURE ENOUGH SOME CU ARE FORMING WHICH SHOULD ACT TO FILL IN THOSE CLEAR SLOTS. 700MB OMEGAS INDICATING POSITIVE VALUES UPSTREAM OF OHIO LOW...BUT WITH COLD 500MB TEMPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 46 TO 51 RANGE. BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF CWA SO WINDS ARE AROUND 10-20 MPH...AFTER AN EARLY MORNING GUST AT PARIS KY SCHOOL-NET SITE OF 48 MPH. MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL US...AND 1032MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. COMPARING THE 12Z ETA/AVN DATA TO THE RUC40 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FCST DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS. THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO THE OHIO LOW IN THE ETA MATCHES UP BETTER...ALONG WITH THE 850MB RH FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER IN/IL/KY. THE AVN HAS A LARGE AREA OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR AT 850MB WHILE THE ETA RH'S ARE MORE AROUND 70%...WHICH AGREES BETTER WITH CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW MOVES INTO SRN ONTARIO. SFC HIGH TRANSLATES INTO SRN MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z...WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY. ETA SHOWING 850MB RH VALUES NEAR 70% OVER THE CWA AT 6Z...BUT I THINK WE'LL LOOSE MOST/ALL OF THE CONVECTIVE INDUCED CLOUD COVER BY 0-2Z. MESOETA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IN SFC-700MB COLUMN THROUGH 6Z OVER NORTH/EAST...SO WE'LL LIKELY HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING...SO I'LL MENTION THOSE. IN THE NORTH...5-10KT FLOW WILL PERSIST CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW SO LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S (MID 30S-LEX). IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE INCOMING SFC HIGH...I'LL GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST AS WINDS WILL LIGHTEN MORE THAN IN NORTH. TOMORROW...1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERN CANADA LOW MOVES EASTWARD. LEVELS ABOVE 850MB WILL GET QUITE DRY (<10%) AS 700-500MB SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES. MESO-ETA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING 60-70% RH'S HANGING ON BELOW 850MB THROUGH 21Z/WED EAST OF I-65. WITH THIS IN MIND I'LL ADD AFTERNOON PC CONDITIONS IN THE EAST (850MB LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM)...AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. I'LL FOLLOW THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMA WITH MID 50S (SDF/BWG) AND LOW 50S (LEX)...AS MESO-ETA NUMBERS SEEM TOO COOL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER US AS WINDS BECOME NONEXISTENT. WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW...NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF...AND SFC TD'S NEAR 30F WE SHOULD SEE NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS. I'LL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND GO TOWARDS THE MESO-ETA NUMBERS FOR LOWS...A GRADIENT WITH LOWER 30S SOUTH TO MID 30S NORTH. THURSDAY...850-500MB RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 20-30%...SO I'LL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH TO SUNNY IN THE SOUTH. RETURN FLOW PATTERN SETS UP AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND SFC TROUGH FORMS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS ON WEDNESDAY...I'LL GO WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAXIMA AS MESO-ETA SEEMS TOO COLD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SFC TROUGH MAKES A MOVE TOWARDS CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AS PWAT'S RISE TO 0.75" BUT PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST OF CWA. I'LL GO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST/MOSTLY CLEAR EAST WITH LOWS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. 45-50 WILL DO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. REMNANTS OF TROUGH PASS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN PRECIP CHANCES...SO I'LL LEAVE FCST PC. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMP DROP FROM THURSDAY. I'LL GO WITH LOW TO MID 60S AS PER MEX NUMBERS. SATURDAY INTO THE EXTENDED I HAVE USED THE ENSEMBLE MOS DATA TO CREATE SENSIBLE WX. I TENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MEMBERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND HELD OFF ON THE PRECIP THAT THE OPERATIONAL MRF CREATES ON TUESDAY (HIGH VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS - 18 TO 48% POP). THANKS FOR COORDINATION JKL. .SDF...NONE. SMALLCOMB ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 949 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO ADJUST POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND 12Z RUC40 DATA...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER CWA IN WAKE OF LOW OVER LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES HERE AT THE OFFICE ARE NEAR 42...WITH SCHOOL-NET SITES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOWING UPPER 30S. DOT SITES ACROSS CENTRAL KY SHOWING 41-42. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS MOST ZONES...WE SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S MOST OF THE DAY. LOWERED WINDS A TAD SINCE MAIN FORCING HAS MOVED WELL NORTHEAST AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED. RAW DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...COFFEE WEATHER. .SDF...NONE SMALLCOMB ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 410 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 AT 07Z RAIN AREA MOVING ACROSS FA WITH FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN PARTS OF FA. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW LONG TO KEEP CLOUDS AND MENTION OF SHOWERS IN FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS CONSISTENT TAKING DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH RUC SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST WITH SURFACE POSITION AT 06Z. HOWEVER ALL MODELS TAKE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM FA DURING THE DAY TODAY. NGM SEEMS TO HANG ON TO HIGHER POPS TOO LONG TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL GO CLOSER TO LOWER AVN MOS. TIME SECTIONS KEEP HIGHER...AND DEEPER RH OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF FA ALL DAY THEN DECREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT. RH IS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO SOME UPWARD MOTION REMAINS OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY. THIS GOES ALONG WITH MODELS KEEPING CLOUDS OVER FA TODAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR OVER FA TODAY AND WITH WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER WILL LOWER POPS SOME TO BE MORE IN LINE THE AVN MOS. WITH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES TODAY. AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER FA...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP FROST FROM FORMING. WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO FA AND MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...GENERALLY ALONG LINES OF AVN MOS. DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. AVN MOS LOOKS GOOD. .SDF...NONE SCHOLZ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 SOME MINOR TOUCH UPS TO THE GOING FORECAST. DEVELOPING LOW OVER TOLEDO OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. REGIONALLY...LIGHTNING IS LIMITED TO ONE OR TWO STROKES EVERY FEW HOURS. I WILL TERM ANY PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS...SINCE I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF WE SAW MORE THAN A COUPLE STROKES AS THIS SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED...MAINLY IN THE WEST. MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN TOWNS LIKE CUMBERLAND AND PETERSBURG WERE STILL IN THE 40S AT 10 AM. CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE FRONT IS ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP IN WEST VIRGINIA. LATEST 12Z RUC40 STILL HAS THE TIMING AROUND 00Z FOR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...EXITING LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND ANNAPOLIS BY ABOUT 02Z. AS FOR WINDS...15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH SHOULD WORK WITH SSE BECOMING WSW. MAY BE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON THE RIDGES...BUT STRONGEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND 850 STAY WEST OF THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STRONG FCSTID = 78 DCA 68 49 61 38 / 30 30 0 0 BWI 70 47 59 33 / 20 30 0 0 MRB 64 42 57 31 / 40 20 0 0 IAD 67 43 59 32 / 30 30 0 0 CHO 67 46 60 34 / 30 30 0 0 HGR 64 42 56 30 / 40 20 0 0 NHK 70 48 60 35 / 20 30 0 0 W99 55 41 55 29 / 60 40 10 0 .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1109 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY N/NE PROGRESS TOWARD WRN LAKE ERIE LATE THIS MORNING. NRN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS REACH A LINE FROM APN TO GRAYLING TO CAD. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA CONTINUE TO STREAM ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE FROM EMPIRE TO MANISTEE. ANOTHER AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SHRA LINED UP FROM ROGERS CITY TO ATLANTA ORIGINATING FROM LAKE HURON IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS IT ENCOUNTER INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE VIA THE SRN LAKES SYSTEM. POPS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON. NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE 90 PCT 1000-500 MB RH LINE AS SEEN ON THE LATEST RUC40. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS LINE SUGGESTS NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL ONLY MAKE A SLIGHT PUSH FARTHER TO THE N EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL ROTATE BACK TO THE E AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES BREAKOUTS TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG A LINE FROM GAYLORD TO GRAYLING AND KALKASKA TO LAKE CITY AND CAD THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR PLACES S AND E OF THESE AREAS IS PANNING OUT WELL...SO ONLY MINOR WORDING CHANGES EXPECTED IN THESE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCT POPS FOR NRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...DRIVEN WEAK 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. 850 MB THERMAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TO THE S TEMPORARILY HOLDS LOW LEVEL CAA AT BAY. HOWEVER 850 MB TEMPS...RANGING FROM -5 C IN ERN UPR MI TO -3 C IN FAR NRN LOWER MI...WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE NRN ZONES. WILL MENTION THIS MIX OF SNOW TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN CAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN AS THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 830 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 UPDT TO PUSH BACK TIMING ON PCPN ARRIVAL ACRS NW DIST TDA TIL AFTN. SFC LOW PRES ACRS WRN OH APCHG KAOH AT 12Z WHILE BEST PRES FALLS NOT TOO FAR REMOVED FM THAT LOW. INTRUSION OF PRES FALL AXIS CONTS E INTO PA TO WRN MA WHICH SEEMS IN LN WITH NEWD MOTION OF RUC. PCPN HAS ALREADY MOVD INTO WRN-N CNTRL LK ONTARIO PER KBUF RADAR. SMALL CHGS TO SCND THRU FOURTH PDS TOO. MCKINLEY/KDL .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1019 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 LOWER TROP CONVERGENCE DRIFTING N IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS IS COAXING A COASTAL TROF TWD THE SERN ZONES. IR CLOUD TEMPS SUGGEST NOTABLE MSTR AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING FTR. INLAND PENETRATION OF MSTR AND OMEGA LIMITED BUT DO BRUSH ERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN BEFORE SW WINDS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS VORT SWEEPS THE ENCROACHING AIRMASS TO SEA. STILL THE RUC80 ADVECTS 70 PCNT MEAN RH UP TO 8KFT BY LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE SWIFT WINDS CRADLING A CHILLY POOL OF AIR WILL SWING ACRS THE NRN MHX ZONES AS A LAST BLAST HOPE FOR PCPN BEFORE COLD DRY REGIME OVERTAKES THE REGION. ALL SAID NO REASON TO CHANGE EXISTING ZFP ISOLD INLAND TO SCT COAST POPS IN PLACE. STABLE CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH SHALLOW INVERSION ACRS COASTAL PLAIN CURRENTLY IS BEING GUIDED NWD SO SUNNY GOING TO PCLDY FCST NOT IN JEOPARDY. CWF: CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH E-NE FLOW THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME SE-S THIS AFTN. LATEST MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH POST-FRONTAL SCA WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 06Z OR LATER. THIS IS STILL BEYOND 12 HRS...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE UNTIL AFTN FCST. .MHX...NONE. COLBY/JBM nc DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2001 SHORT TERM...THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS THAT SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE NOW CONCENTRATED MAINLY NEAR THE TX COASTLINE WHERE THE PGF IS TIGHENING. CURRENT OBSERVED WINDS AROUND THE CWA RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND THESE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY AS AFTERNOON HEATING ALLOWS 30 KTS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WIND STRENGTHS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRENT A WIND ADVISORY ATTM. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCT SC CLD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA MOVING SOUTH. RUC MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWS THAT THESE CLDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A POCKET OF HIGHER RH CENTERED OVER NORTH EAST MEXICO. THE DRY ARI ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH STEADILY EATS AWAY AS THIS MOISTURE AND DISSIPATES THE MOISTURE POCKET BY 18Z. SO AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE CLD COVER WILL EXPAND MUCH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HINGE ON WHICH FACTOR WILL PREVAIL...THE COOLING STRONG CAA COMING IN FROM THE NORTH OR THE HEATING EFFECT OF THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL EFFECTS. BELIEVE THAT THESE SHOULD BALANCE MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NEAR STEADY TEMPS. SO WILL AMEND THE CURRENT ZFP TO ADJUST THE CLD COVER WORDING A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ZFP AS IS. MARINE...A TIGHTER SURFACE PGF DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS A RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX. THIS IS GENERATING GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT BUOY020 (27G35KTS WITH SWELLS AT 10 FEET. THIS SURFACE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WEAKENS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 1ST PD OF THE CURRENT CWF...BUT OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST AS IS. SYNOPTIC-MARINE-AVIATION...60/MESO...VEGA/WATKINS .BRO...SCA TODAY GMZ130-150-155-170-175. tx SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 923 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2001 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS AFFECTING THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40...ONE REPORT FROM THE COAST GUARD AT 9 AM GAVE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...MAINLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING THE BAYS. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON FEEL THE WINDS WILL RELAX...THE RUC AND MESO-ETA BOTH SUGGEST THIS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING OFFSHORE AND THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWS SUIT. THERE MAY BE SOME LAG IN THE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND THE WARMER WATER...BUT STILL FEEL THAT TOWARD MID AFTERNOON THE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX. FOR TEMPERATURES...THE MAV CONTINUES TO REFLECT REALITY A LOT BETTER THAN THE FWC. THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. CHANGES WILL THEN BE TO UP WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MARINE...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS TODAY. .HGX...SCA GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS. SCA HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 0-60NM. PL-40 41 PREV PRELIMS... CLL UU 068/042 073/046 079 000 IAH UU 069/041 072/046 077 000 GLS UU 069/056 070/058 074 000 RECORD LOWS... STN 10/16 10/17 --- ------- ------- CLL 42 1943 42 1954 IAH 42 1974 40 1977 GLS 51 1876 53 1970 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1021 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001 SECOND VORT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE IN THE APCHG UPR TROF HAS SLOWED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE BAROCLININC RAINFALL BAND. RAINFALL IS NOW ENTIRELY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...INDICATIVE OF A MID LVL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN JUST NORTH OF A DVLPG SFC WV. THIS WAVE IS NICELY FORECAST BY THE 00Z RUC TO MOVE DUE NWRD THRU NERN NY AND TO VICINITY OF OTTAWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THIS EVENING TO DELAY RAINFALL AND INDICATE LOWER POPS IN ALL OF VERMONT...LKLY SCNTRL AND ONLY CHC IN THE CHAMPALIN VLY AND NCTRL/NERN VT. DWPTS ARE INITIALLY LOW...DOWNSLOPE INITIALLY OCCURRING WEST OF THE GREENS...AND OVRRNG AND H8 CNVGC IS LIFTING THRU EASTERN NY INTO CANADA TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. BELL .BTV...NONE. vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1112 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2001 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FCST THIS AM IS THE ENDING OF PCPN AND HI TEMPS TDA. WV IMAGERY/RUC SHOWING RDG OVR N CNTRL PLAINS...SEPARATING A CLOSED LOW OVR LK ONT AND A TROF OVR CAN RCKY. A CDFNT IS MOV THRU THE DKTS AND A SFC RDG IS OVR UPR GRTLKS ATTM. SCT MID LVL CLDS ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHRTWV...STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND 850-500MB Q-VEC CNVRGNC AHD OF THE FNT ARE TRACKING THRU W ONT AND MN THIS AM. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MSTR...AND THE MEAN SFC-500MB RH IS <50PCT. A NARROW LES BAND STRETCHES FM JUST E OF MQT TO THE STONINGTON PENINSULA. AS PER RUC...MEAN 850MB TEMP OVR FCST AREA REMAINS ARND -7C...GIVING A LK SUPERIOR WATER DELTA-T OF 16C. THIS ALONG WITH THE NW FLOW CONT TO PROD A FEW LK BANDS OVR E U.P. MEAN SFC-850MB RH IS 80PCT THIS AM. RUC/MESO ETA SHOWING MEAN SFC-850 RH WILL REMAIN >70PCT OVR E UP. DELTA-T'S OVR THE E UP WILL REMAIN 14C THRU THE AFTN. WILL KEEP LK EFFECT RAINS GOING THRU REMAINDER OF THE AFTN FOR E CO. ELSEWHERE AS THE RDG OVR FCST AREA THIS AFTN WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH XPC CLD CVR TEMPS WILL BE NR GUIDANCE IN THE E...AND WITH THE SUNSHINE XPC TEMPS TO REACH GUIDANCE OR SLGTLY ABV IN THE W. AS THE RDG MOV OVR FCST AREA TNGT...XPC WNDS TO FALL OFF AND BACK S THUS END ALL CHC OF LK ENDUCED PCPN. AS THE SHRTWV OVR MN MOV THRU FCST AREA TNGT...XPC AND INCR OF CLDS OVRNGT FM W TO E. WILL LEAVE TNGTS FCST ALONE ATTM. .MQT...NONE. DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1015 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2001 IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...A RESULT OF MID/UPR LVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEPICTED NICELY ON 12Z 305 THETA ETA SOLUTION...HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SINCE EARLY MORNING...AND NOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO EASTERN AREAS...ALSO IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHER RH AT 5H. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DMSH 5H RH AS IT PUSHES SEWD INTO SRN WI...SO GOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL HANDLED. 5H UA ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGHER RH IN ERN AREAS WITH INCREASED RIDGING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM. OVER 100 METER HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF NEXT S/W TROUGH OVR WRN MT/ERN WA...HOWEVER EVEN MID/HIGH LEVEL RH PATCHY. WIND PROFILER NET SHOWING 25 KTS AT LOWEST GATES OF WDL AND SANGSTER CHART HAS 30 TO 35 KTS IN ERN DAKOTAS. BREEZY WORDING ALREADY IN ZONES BUT MAY UP RANGE SLIGHTLY. TEMPS CLOSE TO 00Z FWC...AND APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR TWEEKING NEEDED. .MSP...NONE. KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1025 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2001 OCFNT AT 14Z ACRS SRN QUE-ME WITH SET OF SFC LOWS N OF CWMW AND CYQB. H8-H5 DIFF VOT ADVECTION COMING THRU IN WAVES...WITH ETA SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE LOBE DROPPING INTO SRN DIST LT THIS AFTN AND EVNG WITH MORE COMPACT EDITION PUSHING ACRS NRN DIST DURG ERYR PTN OF AFTN. LATEST KENX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS SLGT BACKING IN LOWEST OF LYRS. KALY 12Z SOUNDING HAD 104 KT SSW JET AT H3. RUC SUGGESTS UPR DIV PLUME TRANSLATES INTO NEW ENG BY ERY THIS AFTN. KBUF 12Z SOUNDING WAS NR DRY ADIABATIC BLO H9 AND QUITE MOIST BTWN H9 AND SLGTLY ABV H7. MAY BE SOME SGFNT BRKS IN CLDS AFT MIDN...BUT TIL THEN THINK CLDS WL BE CSDRBL FOR THE MOST PART AND WITHOUT SOLAR ASSISTANCE IN CAA...SOME TEMP TRIMMING IN ORDER. ALSO...WITH PRES GRADS TIGHTENING UP INVOF LK ONTARIO AND LK ERIE...WL TWEAK WINDS UPWD THIS AFTN SPCLY NWRN SXNS. MCKINLEY/KDL .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1050 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2001 ...TWEAKING WORDING THIS MORNING... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WIND SHIFT LINE HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST BRINGING A MORE WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS STRONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST SYSTEM AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30-50 KT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KFT LAYER. SATELLITE LOOP SHOW A NICE WAVE PATTERN TO THE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENTLY HAVE A LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ON RADAR. MORNING SOUNDING FROM BUF SHOWS MOIST PROFILE WITH SOME CAPE AND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS MAKING FOR AN IMPERFECT LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE LOW LEVELS IN THE WEST REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST TODAY. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ADD A LITTLE INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE VERY COLD. GIVEN A SLIGHT FORECAST WIND SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO ONLY REMAIN AN ISSUE IN THE VERY NORTHWEST COUNTIES. A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. 900 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WORK ZONES OUT...REAL ZONES ON THE STREETS IN A FEW! .CTP...NONE. ROGOWSKI/RXR pa