000 AGXX40 KNHC 150524 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERIES HAVE A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS..ONE OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 26N18W..THE SECOND ONE NEAR 32N54W AND A THIRD ONE NEAR 31N95W. ALL MOVING E. THE NRN BRANCH IS N OF 40N WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER SE CANADA. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE ATLC RIDGE IS E OF 45W AND A OLD POLAR HIGH IS ALONG 65W. SEPARATION OF THE TWO IS A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N48W TO 19N58W. MOST AREAS HAVE MODERATE WINDS. LATER DAY 1 THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLC MOVES TO 34N52W WHILE THE THIRD ONE OPENS UP ALONG 90W. THERES SOME INDICATION OF COLD AIR IN THE NRN BRANCH TRYING TO WORK IT'S WAY S TO 35N OVER THE ERN CONUS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR 31N47W SW TO 20N55W. WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 24N97W. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE ATLC IN THE TROPICAL TRADES AT 20 TO 25 KT. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. FOR DAY 2 SURE ENOUGH COLD AIR BEGINS DIVING SE OVER THE MID WEST IN BEHIND THE THIRD SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH. A STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP W OF 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE NWLY FLOW REINFORCES A POLAR AIRMASS WHICH MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW MOVES TO THE ERN GULF. NLY WINDS TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ATLC FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND MODERATE ELY WINDS REMAIN S OF 20N E OF 75W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 A LARGE POOL OF COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE OH VALLEY CARVING OUT A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 80W. MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD E OF 55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AS A POLAR AIRMASS MOVES TO THE NW GULF COAST. NLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL E OF 90W TO THE FRONT. MERGING AIRMASSES OVER THE ATLC E OF 60W WILL MAINTAIN TRADES TO 20 KT S OF 22N. FOR DAY 4 A SHARPLY DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO 70W WHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING W OF 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A 1027 MB POLAR HIGH MOVES TO N FL MAINTAINING BRISK N AND NE WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES TO 31N62W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DAY 4. FOR DAY 5 THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL W OF 70W AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OVER THE ERN ATLC A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ALONG 30W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N54W BACK TO 20N70W. THE POLAR HIGH MAINTAINS GOOD STRENGTH AT 1030 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 33N69W. RETURN SELY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE GULF TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MODERATE ELY. ATLC WINDS S OF 26N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 80W INCREASE TO NELY 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG