Why a Different Approach Is Required If Global Climate Change Is to Be Controlled Efficiently or Even at All
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Subject: | 2. Cost-Benefit and Cost Effectiveness Analysis 8. Other Analyses and Reports 2. Cost-Benefit and Cost Effectiveness Analysis - Specific Sectors and Pollutants |
Environmental Media/Problems covered: | a. Air b. Water a. Air - Mobile Source a. Air - Stationary Source a. Air - Stratospheric a. Air - Tropospheric b. Water - Surface |
Authors: | Carlin, Alan |
EPA Project Officer/ Manager: | Carlin, Alan |
Geographic Area: | |
Study Purpose: | Data Development, Policy Evaluation |
This Article finds that the emissions reduction approach would be ineffective at solving the dangerous climate change effects of global warming because it would be technically risky, inflexible, extremely expensive, and politically unrealistic, and would probably delay more effective and vastly less expensive measures using solar radiation management. This suggests the awful possibility that very large amounts of money may be spent in a fruitless attempt to reduce GHG emissions at the same time that all the possible adverse economic consequences of climate change are realized.
In attempting to control climate change, the world is faced with potentially catastrophic losses but also with very large uncertainties. Wisdom would be to build a flexible control system that can handle all significant risks inexpensively and with a high probability of success. Solar radiation management either alone or with GHG emissions reductions justifiable on other grounds, offers the best and probably only realistic alternative for controlling global temperatures and avoiding dangerous climate changes. Solar radiation management requires some development to optimize operational details, comparatively modest funding, a reliable command and control system, and a legal change—all of which has not started. Both GHG emissions reductions and solar radiation management need to be implemented with great caution given the risk of unintended consequences in both approaches. This is unlikely to happen if action is delayed until a future possible emergency occurs as a result of possible climate change. Controlling sea level rise would appear to be a more useful objective than GHG emissions control or carbon dioxide levels but needs research. Solar radiation management would not solve the potential ocean acidification problem, which needs additional research and probably future action once the problem and solutions to it are better understood. Download report now
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Date Linked: 07/03/2008