MKC MCD 141107
LAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-141400-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519 FOR SERN OK...FAR NERN TX...NRN LA/
AND SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATEST 88-D IMAGERY OUT OF KSHV INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SUPERCELL
CONTINUES TO MOVE E-SEWD ACROSS LAFAYETTE CO IN FAR SWRN AR. 06Z
ETA MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WE ARE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NORTH OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM NERN TX INTO
NRN LA...WITH MUCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 50 KTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IF STORM
BEGINS TO MOVE MORE SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH IS PRESENT OVER NCENTRAL LA...THAN A
PERSISTENT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF A MORE EWD MOVEMENT IS TAKEN...CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT MOVES
INTO SERN AR.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER SERN OK/NERN TX REMAINS ELEVATED
AND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COVERAGE EXPECTED DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW OVER THIS AREA.


..CROSBIE.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 141548
MKC MCD 141548
TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-141800-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520 FOR N CNTRL AND NERN TX...SERN
OK...SWRN AR...NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
FROM N CNTRL TX AND SERN OK EWD INTO SWRN AR AND NWRN LA. WE ARE
CONTINUING TO MONITOR AREA IN CASE THREAT BECOMES LARGE ENOUGH FOR
WW ISSUANCE.

A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT APPEAR TO BE SURFACE BASED
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT JUST N AND NE OF DAL.
PROGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK TO MDT LOW LEVEL SWLY JET WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO NERN TX BY 18Z. AMS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE ALONG FRONT AS SOME DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES
ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY. PRIND STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP EWD ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DMGG WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS.


..JOHNS.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 141855
MKC MCD 141855
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521 FOR SWRN KS..NW AND N CNTRL TX..AND
WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT IS
LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS FROM PORTIONS OF N CNTRL TX NNWWD
INTO WRN OK...AND IS POSSIBLE ON NWD INTO SWRN KS. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG A LINE FROM JUST N OF DAL TO
NEAR CDS AND THEN NWD ALONG WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER INTO SWRN
KS. DRY LINE HAS OCCLUDED WITH FRONT OVER ERN PORTION OF TX
PANHANDLE WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM WRN OK SSEWD INTO N CENTRAL TX. AN ISOLATED CELL
HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF THE FRONT SE OF SPS DURING THE PAST HOUR.
ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN
CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SWRN KS AND AREA JUST S OF RED
RIVER DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. CU FIELDS SUGGESTS
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IN SWRN OK AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TX...AS WELL AS THE AREA OF EXTREME NW OK/SW
KS IMMEDIATELY W OF P28. DEEP LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AND GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...LCL HEIGHTS...AND POTENTIAL INFLOW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.


..JOHNS.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 141906
MKC MCD 141906
KSZ000-142300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 FOR ECNTRL/NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

STORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS AREAS OF ECNTRL/NERN KS. WE ARE
MONITORING INCREASING STORM ACTIVITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THESE
AREAS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS REVEALS SUBTLE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM SWRN KS
ENEWD SOUTH OF ICT AND NORTH OF CNU WITH A GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE
DEWPOINT GRADIENT BEWEEN TOP AND TUL. RECENT RADAR TRENDS/LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE ACTIVITY IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AREA VWP DATA REVEAL
SIGNIFICANT VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT REPRESENTATIVE OF
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. PFC SOUNDINGS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AT
MHK REVEAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG...MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM...AND LOW WBZ LEVELS AROUND 8500
FT. MAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE HAIL WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.


..NADEN.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 142011
MKC MCD 142011
TXZ000-142200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523 FOR SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN TX LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH RISK OF SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. IF COVERAGE
OF STORMS INCREASES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING CLOSE TO SOME OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM PECOS COUNTY TX SWD INTO NRN MEXICO. AMS IS VERY
UNSTBL WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR MINUS 10. VAD
WIND PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL FLOW STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THESE CELLS INTENSIFY
AND MOVE EWD INTO LOW LEVEL FLOW. ATTM IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE.


..JOHNS.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 142152
MKC MCD 142152
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-ALZ000-150000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525 FOR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NERN
LA/SERN AR...SEWD INTO ECNTRL MS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETAE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS RETURNING NEWD ACROSS MS INTO WRN AL.
REGIONAL RADAR DATA DISPLAYS CHARACTERISTICS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH WARM ADVECTION WING EWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN AL. IF
THIS IS A REAL SYNOPTIC FEATURE IT IS ONLY DETECTABLE WITHIN THE
RADAR DATA AND NOT HANDLED WELL BY EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE.
IT APPEARS STRONG CONVECTION WILL LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKER INSTABILITY OFFSET
ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORT WEAK STORM ROTATION AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.


..DARROW.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 142249
MKC MCD 142249
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-150100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526 FOR KS...MO AND SERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...141...

TORNADO WW 144 HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS
INTO WRN MO AND REPLACES SEVERE WW 141.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OK
PANHANDLE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD TO EAST CENTRAL KS/
CENTRAL MO. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG. UPWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE OVER
KS INTO WRN MO AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN KS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EWD...RESULTING IN FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300
M2/S2 SUPPORT SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

ELEVATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NERN KS/SERN NEB/NWRN MO WHERE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE
STORMS. THEREFORE...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 142332
MKC MCD 142332
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527 FOR SWRN KS/WRN OK/EXTREME NWRN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH..140...

THE SUPERCELL PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER PRATT COUNTY KS IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ESE INTO THE EXTREME NERN PORTION OF WW 140 OR KINGMAN
COUNTY KS DURING THE NEXT HOUR. VAD WINDS OVER SWRN KS INTO WRN
OK/EXTREME NWRN TX INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2...
SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE AT ABOUT 45 SE DDC WITH A FEW TCU
35 S GAG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY LINE IN NWRN OK/SWRN KS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG AND TO THE EAST WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 5000 J/KG. SURFACE
WIND AT GAG HAS VEERED TO THE SW DURING THE LAST HOUR...SUGGESTING
THE DRY LINE MAY BEGIN ADVANCING EWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN
KS TRACKS EWD THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /SFC-6 KM
AROUND 65 KT/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.


..PETERS.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 142354
MKC MCD 142354
TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-150200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528 FOR SRN OK...NRN TX...SWRN AR...NWRN
LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...

SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND
EXTENDS FROM NEAR SHV...NWWD TO NEAR SPS. ONE LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELL...JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO TRACK ESEWD
INTO NRN BRYAN COUNTY OK...AND EVENTUALLY CHOCTAW COUNTY. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
OTHER STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS NWRN TX...SW OF
SPS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE AND MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


..DARROW.. 04/14/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150032
MKC MCD 150032
KSZ000-150200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529 FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR WEST CENTRAL INTO SWRN KS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LOGAN COUNTY KS OR 45 SE GLD IS MOVING TO
THE ESE AT 15 KT. 00Z DDC SOUNDING...DOWNSTREAM OF THIS STORM...
INDICATED MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3300 J/KG AND VERY STEEP 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AT 9 C/KM...SUPPORTING FURTHER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A NW-SE ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER
SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SUGGESTING THIS SINGLE STORM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE ESE OR EVENTUALLY TURN SE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 70 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
7 KFT. HOWEVER...0-3 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 MAY ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.


..PETERS.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150044
MKC MCD 150044
TXZ000-150300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530 FOR TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 143...

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SRN PLAINS INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IT
APPEARS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT STORMS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW MAY LINGER
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.


..DARROW.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150109
MKC MCD 150109
MOZ000-150200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531 FOR CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MO AROUND KANSAS CITY
ARE TRACKING TO THE EAST AT 30 KT. SEVERE WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON
FOR CENTRAL MO.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM MCI TO STL WITH AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. REGIONAL
RADARS INDICATE AN AREA OF STORMS AROUND MCI BEGINNING TO BECOME
LINEAR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER KS APPROACHES WRN MO...UVVS
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ENHANCING THE EWD
PROPAGATION OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER WRN MO WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.


..PETERS.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150203
MKC MCD 150203
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-150300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532 FOR EXTREME PORTIONS OF SERN NEB /
NERN KS AND NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145...

WW MAY BE CANCELLED DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE ERN PORTION OF WW WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDING FROM RICHARDSON COUNTY NEB TO NERN
JACKSON COUNTY KS. THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE EAST AT 30 KT
AND SHOULD EXIT WW 145 AROUND 15/03Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 55 KT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AROUND 500 J/KG SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT DURING
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT DUE TO LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.


..PETERS.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 150224
MKC MCD 150224
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-150500-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533 FOR SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN
MO...NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 144...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO NERN OK
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.
WSWLY LLJ IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM WCNTRL OK INTO SERN KS IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN
FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SEWD PROPAGATION OF
ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN KS INTO NERN OK. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.


..DARROW.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150247
MKC MCD 150247
ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-150500-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534 FOR EXTREME SERN OK...PORTIONS OF
AR...NWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AR INTO NWRN
MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT.

APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER KS SHOULD ENHANCE WSWLY LLJ
ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH
STRONGER...DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS NW OF THE REGION...A
NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS SERN OK...AR...INTO NWRN MS. LOCAL VWP
DATA EXHIBITS STRONG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ROTATION. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS OVER THIS
REGION ARE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE PERSISTENT LINEAR
NATURE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE NARROW
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN OK INTO SWRN AR.

..DARROW.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150400
MKC MCD 150400
MOZ000-150500-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535 FOR CENTRAL/SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147...

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SRN MO. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY AS DEVELOPING BOW ECHOES
RACE ESEWD AT 40-50 KT INTO REGION.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SEVERAL INTENSIFYING LINE SEGMENTS AND
BOW ECHOES FROM CENTRAL MO...SWWD INTO SERN KS. EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION AND INTENSIFYING COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE ESEWD AS LLJ
INCREASES INTO SRN MO.


..DARROW.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150515
MKC MCD 150515
KSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150800-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536 FOR SERN KS...SWRN MO...CNTRL AND ERN
OK INTO NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH 148...

A NEW WW WILL LIKELY REQUIRED SOON SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 148
ACROSS CNTRL ERN OK AND WRN AR.

LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SERN
KS AND SWRN MO ATTM. VWP FROM TUL INDICATES 50-60 KT SLY 850 MB
JET INTO THE MCS AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE
TRYING TO BACKBUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NWRN OK. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8
C/KM...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING/MOVING SEWD INTO THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK AND WRN AR DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS A WW IS LIKELY SHORTLY. WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.


..RACY.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150611
MKC MCD 150611
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-150800-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537 FOR SERN MO...EXTREME NRN AR AND
EXTREME SWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149...

THE BOW ECHO THAT IS MOVING INTO AREAS JUST SOUTHWEST OF STL
APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS MCS. AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO SWRN IL WHERE MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG. WHILE AN ISOLD WIND GUST OR LARGE HAIL REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SRN SUBURBS OF STL...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD EWD INTO SRN IL.

MEANWHILE...TWO LINES OF SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO/THROUGH
THE SRN PORTION OF WW 149. AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS
AREA WITH MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. AREA VWP SHOW A 45-50 KT SLY
INFLOW INTO THE STORMS THAT WILL SUSTAIN STORM STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS USING
A 275/50 MOTION WOULD BRING POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE TO UNO BY 715 UTC
AND INTO THE POF/ARG AREAS BY 08 UTC. WHILE THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SECOND LINE ACROSS SWRN MO MAY WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
STORMS...SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL LIKELY BUILD
SEWD INTO WW 150 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.


..RACY.. 04/15/01
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150641
MKC MCD 150641
ARZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-150900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538 FOR REST OF NERN AND EAST CNTRL AR
INTO WRN TN AND NWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS NERN/EAST CNTRL AR INTO
WRN TN AND NWRN MS.

ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS SITUATED FROM SOUTH CNTRL MO INTO NERN OK
CONTINUES TO MOVE E-SEWD AT 45-50 KTS. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL. EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THE
LINE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPSTREAM WW/S INTO NERN AR BY 0800 UTC.
PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM FALLS FROM
NWRN AR INTO NWRN MS WITH 3-5 MB THREE HOUR DROPS. THE LOW LEVEL
RESPONSE HAS BEEN FOR A VEERING AND INCREASING JET WITH 45-55 KTS
NOTED ON TUL AND FSM RADARS. THUS...INFLOW INTO THE MCS IS QUITE
STRONG AND SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
MOREOVER...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE STORMS INTO
THE MEM AREA AND MAY AID IN KEEPING THE STORMS STRONG-SEVERE.
GIVEN COLD POOL GENERATION AND UNIDIRECTIONAL MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS
OF 50-60 KTS SUGGEST THAT A SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT WILL EXIST AS
THE STORMS MOVE E-SEWD INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VLY.

..RACY.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 150821
MKC MCD 150821
ARZ000-OKZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-151100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539 FOR ERN OK ACROSS NRN AR INTO SERN MO
AND WRN TN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150...

151...
LINES OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WW ATTM. A PARTICULARLY SEVERE BOW ECHO LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTH
CNTRL AR IS MOVING EWD AT NEARLY 63 KTS AND WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
WW 151 NEAR THE TRI-STATE CORNER OF TN/MO/AR AROUND 1030 UTC. THIS
BOW ECHO HAS HAD A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 86 KTS
AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS REGIONAL AIRPORT EARLIER THIS MORNING.
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT BVX AND ARG IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
THROUGH 09 UTC. ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS THAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING
INTO A BOW ECHO IS APPROACHING THE SERN MO BOOTHEEL.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS
LOCATED OVER NERN AR INTO WRN TN. THUS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AT LEAST THROUGH 10 UTC...THEN MIGHT WEAKEN AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS SITUATED EAST OF THE MS RIVER. IF
STORMS DO NOT SHOW A SIGN OF WEAKENING...ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FARTHER EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TN.

FARTHER WEST...AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS HAS SLOWED SWD
MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST HOUR ACROSS ERN OK AND NWRN AR. TULSA
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH A FEW CELLS AND
FORT SMITH WILL LIKELY SEE POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS BY 09 UTC. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AND
MAY BEGIN TO TRAIN ACROSS EAST CNTRL OK INTO WEST CNTRL AR AS THE
LINE BECOMES ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.

..RACY.. 04/15/01
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS3 KMKC 151133
MKC MCD 151133
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-151400-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0540 FOR WRN AND CENTRAL TN/NERN MS AND
NWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152...

LATEST 88-D IMAGERY OUT OF NQA AND GWX INDICATES LEADING EDGE OF
BOW ECHO OVER SWRN TN/NCENTRAL MS WAS MOVING FROM THE NW AT 50 TO
55 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MOTION WOULD TAKE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE OUT OF WW 152 OVER
NWRN AL/SCENTRAL TN AROUND 1230Z.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 55 TO 65 KTS WAS INDICATED BY REGIONAL
VWP/S AIDING IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL TN SWD INTO NRN AL. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC MODEL INDICATES
THAT LEADING EDGE OF BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ALONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE...ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW TO THE
SE OF WW 152 MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR.


..CROSBIE.. 04/15/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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