SPC AC 051254
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
   ERI 30 NNW ZZV 55 SE LUK BWG 10 E MEM BVX HRO SGF 30 W UIN 40 SW RFD
   10 SSW RQB 55 ENE BAX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CLM 20 SW OLM
   20 SW PDX 25 SW EUG 55 NW 4BK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GLD 35 SW GUC
   50 SSW CAG 50 NE CAG 35 SE MHN 30 ESE BBW 40 S HSI 40 SSE GLD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM
   UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 25 ENE GGG
   25 SE PRX 35 SW GMJ 25 WNW LWD 40 ENE MCW 30 NE VOK 55 NNW TVC 50 N
   APN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS
   INTO LWR MI...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS
   EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WNWLY
   UPSTREAM JET CROSSING THE NRN GRT BASIN.  THE IMPULSE SHOULD...
   HOWEVER...REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AND REACH THE LAKE MI AREA BY 12Z
   SUNDAY.  A WEAKER LEAD DISTURBANCE...NOW ENTERING WRN NEB/NW KS PER
   STLT...SHOULD PRECEDE MAIN IMPULSE AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE MID MS
   VLY LATER TODAY.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...APPROACH OF RCKYS TROUGH LIKELY TO INDUCE STRONG
   CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE MID MS VLY BEGINNING THIS
   EVENING.  THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY 
   AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES E/NE ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY.
   
   ...MID MS/LWR OH VLY INTO LWR MI...
   RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
   OVER THE LWR TO MID MS VLY REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS TREND SHOULD
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 60 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH
   THE KSTL AND KIND AREAS BY EARLY EVENING.  AT THE SAME TIME...
   EXPECT THAT STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER PLUME OVER REGION.
   
   COMBINATION OF FRONTAL UPLIFT AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
   AFOREMENTIONED NEB/KS IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF ELEVATED
   CONVECTION/STORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF IA ENE
   INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AND LWR MI. FARTHER S...EXPECT PRESENCE OF
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO KEEP WARM SECTOR CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE
   DAY...DESPITE SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
   
   LATE TODAY OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD FORM OVER CNTRL/ERN MO AND WRN IL IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED
   FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY /1/ STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND /2/
   EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS TROUGH. 
   DEEP SWLY SHEAR ACROSS REGION WILL INCREASE TO AOA 50 KTS...AND 
   MLCAPE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.  AS A RESULT...SETUP
   SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.
   
   WHILE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-LINEAR LATER
   TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...EXTRAPOLATION OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH FROM 
   CURRENT SATELLITE/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
   ASCENT WILL REMAIN W OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AREA FOR AT LEAST A
   COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THUS...SETUP MAY SUPPORT
   A FEW DISCRETE OR QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT
   FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN PARTS OF MO/IL ...WRN KY
   AND WRN IND GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
   
   LATER TONIGHT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME HIGH WIND AS STORMS
   EVOLVE INTO A MORE OR LESS SOLID SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND
   BOWS.  DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY
   STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE
   THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY E/NE INTO ERN IND...LWR MI
   AND NW OH.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z