oh-farm-report James E. Ramey, Director USDA/NASS Ohio Field Office P.O. Box 686 Reynoldsburg, Ohio 43068-0686 Issue 11 June 11, 2008 Ag Prices Maple Syrup Winter Wheat Supply/Demand Cash Receipts OHIO WINTER WHEAT, SOYBEAN AND HOG PRICES ALL RISE IN MAY The Ohio winter wheat price in May of $6.97 per bushel is down $1.41 from April but $2.80 above the May 2007 average price of $4.17. Ohio=s May corn price of $5.29 per bushel is down 7 cents from April but $1.72 above the previous May price of $3.57 per bushel. The State=s May soybean price of $12.50 per bushel is up 50 cents from April, and $5.16 above what was received at the same time last year. The alfalfa hay price in May of $184.00 per ton is up $5.00 per ton from April and $27.00 per ton higher than the price received one year ago. Other hay at $115.00 per ton is down $4.00 from April but $34.00 above the price received last year at this time. The May beef cattle price in Ohio of $84.40 per cwt. is up $1.60 from April but $6.10 per cwt. lower than the May 2007 average price. The steer and heifer price of $88.00 per cwt. is up $1.40 from April but $6.90 per cwt. lower than the May 2007 average price. The May cow price of $52.00 per cwt, is up $3.60 from April and $1.30 higher than the price received one year ago. Calves, at $103.00 per cwt. are up $3.70 from the previous month but $8.00 below the previous May price. Ohio=s May hog price of $50.40 per cwt. is up $10.50 from April but 90 cents less than was received the previous May. The May sow price of $24.00 per cwt., is up $7.20 from the previous month, but down $3.70 from the May 2007 average price. The May barrow and gilt price of $54.00 per cwt. is up $10.90 from the previous month, and $1.60 more than was received in May 2007. The May milk price of $18.40 per cwt. is down $1.00 from April and 10 cents lower than the May 2007 price of $18.50 per cwt. The May egg price of 76 cents per dozen is down 20 cents from April but 6 cents higher than the May 2007 price of 70 cents per dozen. The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in May, at 150 percent, based on 1990-92=100, increased 5 points (3.4 percent) from April. The Crop Index is up 4 points (2.4 percent) and the Livestock Index increased 5 points (3.9 percent). Producers received higher prices for hogs, cattle, onions, and broilers and lower prices for eggs, lettuce, wheat, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly marketings of cantaloupes, grapes, sweet corn, and wheat offset decreased marketings of cattle, milk, corn, and apples. The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 14 points (10 percent) from May 2007. The Food Commodities Index, at 147, increased 5 points (3.5 percent) from last month and increased 11 points (8.1 percent) from May 2007. AGRICULTURAL PRICES, OHIO AND UNITED STATES, MAY 2008 WITH COMPARISONS Commodity 1/ Unit Ohio U.S. May 2007 Apr. 2008 May 2008 May 2008 Winter wheat Bu. $ 4.17 8.38 6.97 7.76 Corn Bu. $ 3.57 5.36 5.29 5.12 Soybeans Bu. $ 7.34 12.00 12.50 12.30 Oats Bu. $ 5/ 5/ 5/ 3.46 All hay, baled 2/ Ton $ 135.00 146.00 163.00 166.00 Alfalfa hay Ton $ 157.00 179.00 184.00 177.00 Other hay, baled Ton $ 81.00 119.00 115.00 134.00 Potatoes Ton $ 6/ 6/ 6/ 9.21 Apples, fresh use Lb. $ 0.385 0.490 0.435 0.339 Hogs Cwt $ 51.30 39.90 50.40 54.10 Sows Cwt $ 34.10 16.80 24.00 23.00 Barrows and gilts Cwt $ 52.40 43.10 54.00 55.50 All beef cattle Cwt $ 90.50 82.80 84.40 90.50 Cows Cwt $ 50.70 48.40 52.00 53.10 Steers and heifers Cwt $ 94.90 86.60 88.00 95.40 Calves Cwt $ 111.00 99.30 103.00 116.00 Sheep Cwt $ 28.50 23.70 - - Lambs Cwt $ 105.00 112.00 - - Milk sold to plants Cwt $ 18.50 19.40 18.40 18.20 Milk sold for fluid use Cwt $ 18.60 19.50 - 18.20 Milk of mfg. grade Cwt $ 17.00 16.70 - 18.50 Eggs 3/ Doz $ 0.700 0.960 0.760 0.698 Hog-corn ratio 4/ 14.4 7.4 9.5 10.6 1/ Monthly average except for current month. Current month is mid-month price. 2/ Mid-month price for all months. 3/ Fresh market (table) eggs. 4/ Bushels of corn equal in value to 100 pounds of hogs live weight. 5/ Insufficient sales to establish a price. 6/ Estimates discontinued in 2005. JUNE 2008 SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1/ Corn Wheat Soybeans 2007/08 2008/09 2007/08 2008/09 2007/08 2008/09 Million Bushels Beginning Stocks 1,304 1,433 456 254 574 125 Production 13,074 11,735 2,067 2,432 2,585 3,105 Imports 15 15 95 100 10 8 Total Supply 14,393 13,183 2,618 2,786 3,169 3,238 Domestic Use 10,510 10,510 1,098 1,299 1,934 2,013 Exports 2,450 2,000 1,265 1,000 1,110 1,050 Total Use 12,960 12,510 2,363 2,299 3,044 3,063 Ending Stocks, Total 1,433 673 254 487 125 175 CCC Inventory 0 - 0 - - - Free Stocks 1,433 - 254 - - - Average Price ($bu.) 4.25-4.45 5.30-6.30 6.50 6.75-8.25 10.00 11.00-12.50 1/ From World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, ERS, FAS, USDA. OHIO MAPLE SYRUP PRODUCTION UP 57 PERCENT Ohio's 2008 maple syrup production is ranked in fifth place nationally behind Wisconsin, compared to fourth place last year. Ohio maple syrup production was 118,000 gallons in 2008, an increase in production of 43,000 gallons from 2007. The number of taps increased from 370,000 taps in 2007 to 395,000 taps in 2008. The 2008 yield per tap was 0.299 gallons per tap, an increase of 0.096 gallons per tap from last year. Maple syrup collection started up on January 9, approximately 3 weeks earlier than last year's start up date of January 31. The Ohio 2008 average season length increased to 30 days from 20 days last year. The average price per gallon increased $5.00 per gallon from the 2006 price of $34.00 per gallon to the 2007 price of $39.00 per gallon. The State's value of production increased from $2.6 million last year to $2.9 million in 2007. The 2008 U.S. maple syrup production totaled 1.64 million gallons, up 30 percent from 2007. The number of taps is estimated at 7.46 million, up 2 percent from the 2007 total of 7.29 million. Yield per tap is estimated to be 0.219 gallons, up 27 percent from the previous season. Vermont led all States in production with 500,000 gallons, an increase of 11 percent from 2007. Production in New York, at 322,000 gallons, increased 44 percent from last season. Production in Maine, at 215,000 gallons, is 4 percent below 2007. Production in Ohio, at 118,000 gallons, is up 57 percent from last year. This is the highest production on record since 1959 when production was estimated at 127,000 gallons. In Michigan, production is estimated to be 100,000 gallons, the highest on record since 1964 and 67 percent above 2007. Production in Pennsylvania, at 95,000 gallons, is 86 percent above 2007. This is tied with 1992 as the highest on record since 1975 when 97,000 gallons were produced. Production in Massachusetts, at 55,000 gallons, is up 83 percent from a year ago. This is the highest production on record since 1944. In Connecticut, production is estimated to be 15,000 gallons, the highest on record since estimates began in 1992. Production also increased in New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Yields increased in all States except Maine, contributing to the increase in production. Temperatures were reported to be mostly favorable for sap flow in 2008 except in Maine and Vermont. Producers in Maine reported temperatures that were mostly too warm for sap flow while producers in Vermont reported temperatures that were mostly too cool. On average, the season lasted 30 days compared with 27 days last year. The longest season was reported in Connecticut at 40 days. The earliest sap flow reported was January 5 in New York. The latest sap flow reported was May 10 in Wisconsin. Sugar content of the sap for 2008 was up from the previous year. On average, approximately 39 gallons of sap were required to produce one gallon of syrup. This compares with 45 gallons in 2007 and 44 gallons in 2006. The majority of the syrup produced in each State this year was light to medium in color. The 2007 U.S. average price per gallon was $33.20, up $1.90 from the 2006 price of $31.30. The U.S. value of production, at $41.7 million for 2007, was down 8 percent from 2006. Value of production decreased in all States except Ohio. MAPLE SYRUP: PRODUCTION 2007-20081 AND VALUE 2006-20072 BY STATE AND UNITED STATES State Number of Yield per Average Price Value of Taps Tap Production per Gallon Production 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2006 2007 2006 2007 1,000 taps gallons 1,000 gallons Dollars 1,000 Dollars CT 59 62 0.136 0.242 8 15 58.20 53.90 582 431 ME 1,310 1,270 0.172 0.169 225 215 24.30 30.10 7,290 6,773 MA 230 220 0.130 0.250 30 55 47.90 46.10 1,916 1,383 MI 400 405 0.150 0.247 60 100 37.00 41.60 2,886 2,496 NH 365 360 0.164 0.236 60 85 43.90 46.80 2,810 2,808 NY 1,470 1,480 0.152 0.218 224 322 31.70 33.50 8,020 7,504 OH 370 395 0.203 0.299 75 118 34.00 39.00 2,652 2,925 PA 445 475 0.115 0.200 51 95 32.50 31.60 2,145 1,612 VT 2,170 2,250 0.207 0.222 450 500 30.20 29.10 13,892 13,095 WI 470 540 0.160 0.241 75 130 31.20 35.70 3,120 2,678 US 7,289 7,457 0.173 0.219 1,258 1,635 31.30 33.20 45,313 41,705 1/ 2007 Revised 2/ Price and value for 2006 are revised. Price and value for 2008 are not available until June, 2009. OHIO WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST UP FROM MAY U.S. PRODUCTION UP 2 PERCENT Based on the June 1 yield survey, Ohio winter wheat producers expect to harvest 67 million bushels in 2008, up from the May forecast and up 46 percent from the previous year. Producers are expecting to harvest 1 million acres for grain or seed from the 1.02 million acres seeded last fall. The average State yield is forecast at 67 bushels per acre, up 6 percent from May and four bushels above the 2007 average. U.S. winter wheat production is forecast at 1.82 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the May 1 forecast and 20 percent above 2007. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 45.3 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month and 3.1 bushels more than last year. Grain area totals 40.2 million acres, unchanged from May 1. Hard Red production is up 2 percent from a month ago to 1.03 billion bushels. Soft Red is up 4 percent from last month and now totals 572 million bushels. White production totals 216 million bushels, up slightly from last month. Of the White production total, 23.2 million bushels are Hard White and 193 million bushels are Soft White. WINTER WHEAT AREA HARVESTED YIELD AND PRODUCTION SELECTED STATES AND UNITED STATES 2007 AND FORECASTED JUNE 1, 2008 State Area for harvest Yield Production 2007 2008 1/ 2007 2008 1/ 2007 2008 1/ (000) acres Bu./acre (000) bushels Arkansas 700 840 41.0 56.0 28,700 47,040 Colorado 2,350 2,100 40.0 30.0 94,000 63,000 Indiana 370 530 57.0 67.0 21,090 35,510 Illinois 890 1,160 57.0 68.0 50,730 78,880 Kansas 8,600 9,400 33.0 38.0 283,800 357,200 Missouri 880 1,120 43.0 54.0 37,840 60,480 Montana 2,190 2,600 38.0 35.0 83,220 91,000 Ohio 730 1,000 63.0 67.0 45,990 67,000 Oklahoma 3,500 4,500 28.0 35.0 98,000 157,500 Texas 3,800 3,400 37.0 30.0 140,600 102,000 U.S. 35,952 40,162 42.2 45.3 1,515,989 1,817,364 1/ Forecast. WHEAT: PRODUCTION BY CLASS, UNITED STATES, 2006-2007 AND FORECASTED JUNE 1, 2008 1/ Year Winter Spring Hard red Soft red White Hard red White Durum Total Thousand Bushels 2006 682,079 390,165 225,837 432,339 28,141 53,475 1,812,036 2007 961,588 357,897 196,504 448,904 30,143 71,686 2,066,722 2008 2/ 1,029,523 571,627 216,214 - - - - 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data. The previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. 2/ Spring wheat production by class and total production will be published in ACrop Production@ released July 11, 2008. U.S. INDEX SUMMARY TABLE Index 2007 2008 1990-92=100 April May April May Prices Received 133 136 145 150 Prices Paid 160 161 181 184 Ratio 1/ 83 84 80 82 1/ Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid. 2008 CASH RECEIPTS FOR MAJOR LIVESTOCK AND CROP CATEGORIES Item Ohio U.S. January February January February 2007 2008 2007 2008 2008 2008 Thousand Dollars Meat animals - - - - 5,023,596 4,824,310 Dairy Products - - - - 3,173,548 2,739,704 Poultry/Eggs - - - - 3,028,729 2,900,890 Misc. Livestock - - - - 355,061 273,759 Livestock 209,136 225,688 192,578 210,311 11,580,933 10,738,664 Food Grains - - - - 1,394,845 1,110,311 Feed Crops - - - - 7,805,897 4,328,223 Cotton - - - - 650,014 410,373 Tobacco - - - - 102,503 21,264 Oil Crops - - - - 3,999,818 2,323,045 Vegetables - - - - 1,094,418 938,367 Fruits/Nuts - - - - 908,009 795,212 All Other Crops - - - - 1,386,913 1,368,517 Crops 399,863 610,769 260,222 443,183 17,342,416 11,295,313 All Commodities 608,999 836,457 452,800 653,495 28,923,350 22,033,977