oh-farm-reports Ag Prices Maple Syrup Winter Wheat Supply/Demand Cash Receipts James E. Ramey, Director USDA/NASS Ohio Field Office P.O. Box 686 Reyoldsburg, Ohio 43068 (614)728-2100 June 11, 2007 OHIO GRAIN, SOYBEAN AND HOG PRICES ALL RISE IN MAY The Ohio winter wheat price in May of $4.39 per bushel is up 29 cents from April and $1.04 above the May 2006 average price of $3.35. Ohio=s May corn price of $3.66 per bushel is up 18 cents from April and $1.40 above the previous May price of $2.26 per bushel. The State=s May soybean price of $7.44 per bushel is up 38 cents from April, and $1.66 above what was received at the same time last year. The alfalfa hay price in May of $155.00 per ton is up $16.00 per ton from April and $20.00 per ton higher than the price received one year ago. Other hay at $95.00 per ton is up $8.00 from April and $27.00 above the price received last year at this time. The May beef cattle price in Ohio of $89.70 per cwt. is down 50 cents from April but $8.70 per cwt. higher than the May 2006 average price. The steer and heifer price of $94.00 per cwt. is down $1.00 from April but $9.30 per cwt. higher than the May 2006 average price. The May cow price of $51.00 per cwt, is up $4.00 from April and $3.50 higher than the price received one year ago. Calves, at $110.00 per cwt. are down $1.00 from the previous month and $14.00 below the previous May price. Ohio=s May hog price of $49.10 per cwt. is up $2.90 from April and $5.20 more than was received the previous May. The May sow price of $32.20 per cwt, is up $4.50 from the previous month, and identical to the price received at the same time last year. The May barrow and gilt price of $50.00 per cwt. is up $2.80 from the previous month, and $5.40 more than was received in May 2006. The May milk price of $18.00 per cwt. is up 90 cents from April and $5.20 higher than the May 2006 price of $12.80 per cwt. The May egg price of 70 cents per dozen is up 5.5 cents from April and 43 cents higher than the May 2006 price of 27 cents per dozen. The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in May, at 138 percent, based on 1990-92=100, increased 4 points (3.0 percent) from April. The Crop Index is up 3 points (2.1 percent) and the Livestock Index increased 5 points (3.9 percent). Producers received higher commodity prices for milk, hogs, hay, and broilers. Lower prices were received for lettuce, cattle, broccoli, and cauliflower. The overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased average marketings of sweet corn, broilers, peaches, and wheat offset decreased marketings of cattle, milk, oranges, and apples. The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 27 points (24 percent) from May 2006. The Food Commodities Index, at 139, increased 4 points (3.0 percent) from last month and increased 28 points (25 percent) from May 2006. AGRICULTURAL PRICES, OHIO AND UNITED STATES, MAY 2007 WITH COMPARISONS Commodity 1/ Unit Ohio U.S. May 2006 Apr. 2007 May 2007 May 2007 Winter wheat Bu. $ 3.35 4.10 4.39 4.58 Corn Bu. $ 2.26 3.48 3.66 3.48 Soybeans Bu. $ 5.78 7.06 7.44 7.15 Oats Bu. $ 5/ 7/ 5/ 2.36 All hay, baled 2/ Ton $ 114.00 116.00 136.00 138.00 Alfalfa hay Ton $ 135.00 139.00 155.00 144.00 Other hay, baled Ton $ 68.00 87.00 95.00 116.00 Potatoes Ton $ 6/ 6/ 6/ 8.69 Apples, fresh use Lb. $ 0.255 0.410 0.385 0.295 Hogs Cwt $ 43.90 46.20 49.10 52.00 Sows Cwt $ 32.20 27.70 32.20 32.60 Barrows and gilts Cwt $ 44.60 47.20 50.00 52.80 All beef cattle Cwt $ 81.00 90.20 89.70 93.50 Cows Cwt $ 47.50 47.00 51.00 51.60 Steers and heifers Cwt $ 84.70 95.00 94.00 98.60 Calves Cwt $ 124.00 111.00 110.00 126.00 Sheep Cwt $ 32.90 33.60 - - Lambs Cwt $ 98.20 113.00 - - Milk sold to plants Cwt $ 12.80 17.10 18.00 17.80 Milk sold for fluid use Cwt $ 12.80 17.20 - 17.80 Milk of mfg. grade Cwt $ 11.70 15.80 - 17.20 Eggs 3/ Doz $ 0.270 0.645 0.700 0.615 Hog-corn ratio 4/ 19.4 13.3 13.4 14.9 1/ Monthly average except for current month. Current month is mid-month price. 2/Mid-month price for all months. 3/Fresh market (table) eggs. 4/ Bushels of corn equal in value to 100 pounds of hogs live weight. 5/ Insufficient sales to establish a price. 6/ Estimates discontinued in 2005. 7/ Price not published to avoid disclosure of individual firms. JUNE 2007 SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1/ Corn Wheat Soybeans 2006/07 2007/08 2006/07 2007/08 2006/07 2007/08 Million Bushels Beginning Stocks 1,967 987 571 417 449 610 Production 10,535 12,460 1,812 2,168 3,188 2,745 Imports 10 15 120 100 4 4 Total Supply 12,512 13,462 2,503 2,684 3,642 3,359 Domestic Use 9,375 10,490 1,177 1,241 1,952 1,959 Exports 2,150 1,975 910 1,000 1,080 1,080 Total Use 11,525 12,465 2,087 2,241 3,032 3,039 Ending Stocks, Total 987 997 417 443 610 320 CCC Inventory - - 41 - - - Free Stocks 987 - 376 - - - Average Price ($bu.) 3.00-3.10 3.10-3.70 4.27 4.50-5.10 6.30 6.65-7.65 1/ From World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, ERS, FAS, USDA. OHIO MAPLE SYRUP PRODUCTION DOWN 4 PERCENT Ohio's 2007 maple syrup production is ranked in fourth place nationally along with Wisconsin, compared to fifth place last year. Ohio maple syrup production was 75,000 gallons in 2007, a decrease in production of 3,000 gallons from 2006. The number of taps increased from 360,000 taps in 2006 to 370,000 taps in 2007. The 2007 yield per tap was 0.203 gallons per tap, a decrease of 0.014 gallons per tap from last year. Maple syrup collection started up on January 31, approximately 2 weeks later than last year's start up date of January 15. The Ohio 2007 average season length decreased to 20 days from 28 days last year. The average price per gallon decreased $2.00 per gallon from the 2006 price of $36.00 per gallon to the 2007 price of $34.00 per gallon. The State's value of production increased from $2.5 million last year to $2.7 million in 2007. The 2007 U.S. maple syrup production totaled 1.26 million gallons, down 13 percent from 2006. The number of taps is estimated at 7.28 million, up less than 1 percent from the 2006 total of 7.26 million, while the yield per tap is estimated to be 0.173 gallons, down 14 percent from the previous season. Vermont led all States in production with 450,000 gallons, a decrease of 2 percent from 2006. Production in Maine, at 225,000 gallons, decreased 25 percent from last season. Production in New York, at 224,000 gallons, is 11 percent below 2006. Production was down 25 percent in Massachusetts and Wisconsin, 23 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania, 20 percent in Connecticut, 6 percent in New Hampshire, and 4 percent in Ohio. Decreased yields were the largest contributing factor to the decrease in production. Temperatures were not favorable for sap flow in 2007 except in Ohio where the majority of producers reported favorable weather. Producers in New England experienced conditions that were mostly too cold for sap flow. The remaining States, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, experienced weather that was mostly too warm for sap flow. However, there were some extremely cold spells in many of these States that also hindered sap flow. On average, the season lasted 27 days compared with 28 days last year. New York reported the earliest season opening date of January 5. Maine reported the latest sap flow in 2007 with an approximate season ending date of May 7. Sugar content of the sap for 2007 was down from the previous year. On average, approximately 45 gallons of sap were required to produce one gallon of syrup. This compares with 44 gallons in 2006 and 40 gallons in 2005. The majority of the syrup produced in each State this year was medium to dark in color, except in Maine where most was reported to be light in color. The 2006 U.S. average price per gallon was $31.30, up $1.40 from the 2005 price of $29.90. The U.S. value of production, at $45.3 million for 2006, was up 22 percent from 2005. Value of production increased in all States except Massachusetts. MAPLE SYRUP: PRODUCTION 2006-20071 AND VALUE 2005-20062 BY STATE AND UNITED STATES State Number of Taps Yield per Tap Production Average Price per Gallon Value of Production 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2005 2006 2005 2006 1,000 taps gallons 1,000 gallons Dollars 1,000 Dollars CT 61 59 0.164 0.136 10 8 50.00 58.20 500 582 ME 1,315 1,310 0.228 0.172 300 225 21.50 24.30 5,698 7,290 MA 245 230 0.163 0.130 40 30 51.20 47.90 2,048 1,916 MI 375 400 0.208 0.150 78 60 36.00 37.00 2,088 2,886 NH 355 365 0.180 0.164 64 60 41.30 43.90 2,354 2,810 NY 1,530 1,470 0.165 0.152 253 224 31.70 31.70 7,037 8,020 OH 360 370 0.217 0.203 78 75 36.00 34.00 2,484 2,652 PA 449 445 0.147 0.115 66 51 31.50 32.50 1,922 2,145 VT 2,170 2,170 0.212 0.207 460 450 27.80 30.20 11,398 13,892 WI 400 460 0.250 0.163 100 75 32.40 31.20 1,620 3,120 US 7,260 7,279 0.200 0.173 1,449 1,258 29.90 31.30 37,149 45,313 1/ 2006 Revised 2/ Price and value for 2005 are revised. Price and value for 2007 are not available until June, 2008. OHIO WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM MAY U.S. PRODUCTION DOWN SLIGHTLY Based on the June 1 yield survey, Ohio winter wheat producers expect to harvest 48.6 million bushels in 2007, unchanged from the May forecast but down 25 percent from the previous year. Producers are expecting to harvest 760,000 acres for grain or seed from the 870,000 acres seeded last fall. The average State yield is forecast at 64 bushels per acre, unchanged from May but four bushels below the 2006 average. U.S. winter wheat production is forecast at 1.61 billion bushels, down slightly from the May 1 forecast but 24 percent above 2006. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month but 1.5 bushels more than last year. Grain area totals 37.2 million acres, up fractionally from May 1. Hard Red production is up slightly from a month ago to 1.03 billion bushels. Soft Red is down 2 percent from last month and now totals 341 million bushels. White production totals 237 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month. Of the White production total, 18.9 million bushels are Hard White and 218 million bushels are Soft White. WINTER WHEAT AREA HARVESTED YIELD AND PRODUCTION SELECTED STATES AND UNITED STATES 2006 AND FORECASTED JUNE 1, 2007 State Area for harvest Yield Production 2006 2007 1/ 2006 2007 1/ 2006 2007 1/ (000) acres Bu./acre (000) bushels Ohio 960 760 68.0 64.0 65,280 48,640 Indiana 460 410 69.0 59.0 31,740 24,190 Illinois 910 810 67.0 55.0 60,970 44,550 Missouri 910 800 54.0 42.0 49,140 33,600 Arkansas 305 600 61.0 42.0 18,605 25,200 Texas 1,400 3,900 24.0 35.0 33,600 136,500 Oklahoma 3,400 4,600 24.0 33.0 81,600 151,800 Kansas 9,100 9,500 32.0 38.0 291,200 361,000 Colorado 1,900 2,100 21.0 37.0 39,900 77,700 Montana 1,920 2,150 43.0 42.0 82,560 90,300 U.S. 31,117 37,222 41.7 43.2 1,298,081 1,609,679 1/ Forecast. WHEAT: PRODUCTION BY CLASS, UNITED STATES, 2004-2005 AND FORECASTED JUNE 1, 2007 1/ Year Winter Spring Hard red Soft red White Hard red White Durum Total Thousand Bushels 2005 929,820 309,021 260,288 466,587 37,869 101,105 2,104,690 2006 682,079 390,165 225,837 432,339 28,141 53,475 1,812,036 2007 2/ 1,031,745 340,525 237,409 - - - - 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data. The previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. 2/ Spring wheat production by class and total production will be published in ACrop Production@ released July 12, 2007. U.S. INDEX SUMMARY TABLE Index 1990-92=100 2006 2007 April May April May Prices Received 111 111 134 138 Prices Paid 148 149 157 158 Ratio 1/ 75 74 85 87 1/ Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid. 2007 CASH RECEIPTS FOR MAJOR LIVESTOCK AND CROP CATEGORIES Item Ohio U.S. January February January February 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 2007 Thousand Dollars Meat animals - - - - 4,934,285 4,700,226 Dairy Products - - - - 2,285,444 2,107,573 Poultry/Eggs - - - - 2,488,051 2,408,819 Misc. Livestock - - - - 348,951 269,712 Livestock 190,303 186,641 175,779 193,649 10,056,731 9,486,330 Food Grains - - - - 766,255 593,170 Feed Crops - - - - 4,363,275 2,927,314 Cotton - - - - 736,379 370,487 Tobacco - - - - 106,290 22,022 Oil Crops - - - - 2,397,507 1,127,731 Vegetables - - - - 1,139,004 1,051,823 Fruits/Nuts - - - - 889,272 872,697 All Other Crops - - - - 1,279,134 1,275,370 Crops 299,813 386,921 195,014 271,766 11,677,115 8,240616 All Commodities 490,115 573,562 370,793 465,414 21,733,847 17,726,946