000
FXUS04 KWBC 131820
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 14/0000 UTC THRU MAR 15/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODELS WITH THE MASS
FIELD EVOLUTION WITH THE ONGOING HEAVY PCPN EVENT FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  MID TO UPR LEVEL HT FALLS IN THE
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM WL CONT TO PRESS NEWD TONIGHT INTO SAT
FROM THE SRN PLAINS...THRU THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY.  ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX WL CONT AHEAD OF THESE
HT FALLS OFF THE WRN TO CNTRL GULF.  THIS AND OVERALL FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS IN COUPLED JET EXIT/ENTRANCE REGION WL CONT TO
SUPPORT THE NEWD PUSH OF HEAVY PCPN.  THERE ARE DIFFS TODAY WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN.  THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN ON THE SRN
END OF THE QPF AXES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS ONGOING
EVENT...IS NOW SPREADING HEAVY PCPN FARTHEST NORTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...NAM...CMC...SREF MEAN AND UKMET.
DAY 1 QPF IS FAVORING THE FARHER SWD QPF AXIS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR A FARTHER SWD QPF

...SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...

PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN DAY 1 OVR THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH
PLAINS AS THE SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE
UVVS ACRS THIS AREA PUSHES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  OPERATIONAL
AND SREF GUIDANCE SHOW MOSTLY LIGHT PCPN AMTS DAY 1 ACRS THESE
AREAS.

...PAC NW...

ONSHORE SWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
PERIOD IN ASSOC WITH TWO AREA OF NERN PAC HT FALLS MOVG EWD INTO
THE PAC NW.  THE INITIAL AREA OF SHRTWV ENERGY WL MOVE INLAND FRI
NIGHT...WITH A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF HT FALLS FOLLOWING THIS LEAD
AREA LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.  THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WL SUPPORT HVY PCPN IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WA
CASCADES...WA/OR COAST RANGE AND OLYMPIC RANGE.  FOR QPF
DETAILS...THE DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12 KM OUTPUT FROM THE
NAM AND THE NAM SREF MEMBERS...DEPICTING AREAL AVG 1-1.5"+ PCPN
AMTS ACRS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 533215 537201 537196 536191 534186 530178 526171 522165
      516159 506147 500145 492138 488132 482128 477126 472127
      470128 468132 470138 474143 482147 483151 480151 473150
      467145 461142 454143 448146 442145 436144 433148 433155
      435160 437163 441169 444175 442177 440182 439195 440198
      442198 446195 449192 452192 455189 456182 459177 465173
      469173 472175 476181 478185 478191 476197 475200 469205
      465208 463208 460207 456210 454211 449213 444212 440214
      434214 431216 428216 425218 422222 424226 425230 423231
      415229 409231 401231 399231 396237 397245 400250 404256
      409260 414262 422265 429264 441260 448259 454259 463261
      473267 485277 494287 499295 505295 510288 515278 519269
      520264 520260 519249 517240 510223 510216 511212 514212
      517215 521221 525225 529224 533215
 0.01 395716 391712 386709 381710 378708 375708 371711 366717
      364723 360728 355734 345761 339784 332797 327805 322811
      318817 314822 315829 314836 311841 307846 298856 282874
      273883 264894 258903 253915 245940 243950 241963 242978
      243981 245986 249992 258000 264008 271016 275020 280017
      283010 283004 283996 284990 288984 292980 296973 300971
      304972 314977 322988 328001 337011 340017 344021 352030
      352034 346038 341038 338041 333049 335055 335062 333069
      330075 321078 313078 310081 307088 305094 306098 308100
      313102 321103 326105 332111 340124 345126 349127 353126
      356124 357120 354114 347099 346093 347084 350079 355078
      359077 361079 367082 371086 378090 382089 385085 387080
      391075 393072 394067 393063 391061 387061 384064 380062
      376057 374051 373040 368025 365008 361993 359988 359981
      362974 364969 369961 375950 379935 383919 390893 399860
      400853 400845 397826 396814 396805 396798 396792 394787
      394779 393772 394765 395759 397747 398736 397723 395716
 0.25 530204 530199 528195 526190 524185 521181 518177 516173
      513172 509170 505169 503173 504178 506184 508190 511194
      516200 519204 521208 524209 527208 530204
 0.25 511265 513260 514253 512245 507230 502217 499211 495207
      491205 487204 482205 476206 471208 450217 438218 432219
      427222 432232 430234 428236 425236 421235 417235 415235
      414240 417246 423250 438251 449252 462253 468254 475258
      483263 486266 496276 499278 503278 505277 506274 511265
 0.25 488233 486230 483228 481231 482234 485236 488234 488233
 0.25 386751 384741 381737 379736 374737 369740 364751 360761
      357775 353786 342806 337817 332827 321844 317850 312855
      304863 298869 292879 286889 280898 275907 273911 273918
      274925 277933 280938 285939 290942 294942 301937 307934
      311933 315934 324938 329938 333936 342931 346926 351921
      353915 355909 359898 363889 370877 374866 377853 379841
      383828 386816 386810 387801 384787 383775 383765 384756
      386751
 0.50 520191 519186 518184 516181 515180 513176 510176 509179
      509184 511188 513190 514191 517192 520192 520191
 0.50 509250 508239 504230 499217 498213 494209 486207 473210
      467213 462215 456217 451221 454225 453231 440234 434237
      428239 424238 419236 418238 418242 423246 435247 444249
      449249 462249 470249 473251 487259 493263 495262 496259
      495255 492247 490241 481237 480234 478230 475224 480223
      483224 489229 494236 503248 506253 509250
 0.50 378810 377803 376800 373797 368792 365792 360795 356799
      349807 345813 340827 331842 320854 313859 307864 302870
      298875 295883 290889 283901 294932 299933 305931 309929
      314929 321929 326929 330928 335923 340915 349904 353896
      357888 363875 368866 371858 375842 377832 378824 378814
      378810
 1.00 501238 500232 499223 496218 490218 488215 482212 479213
      478217 484219 490221 492226 494232 497236 499238 501238
 1.00 482245 479235 477232 473231 471233 467232 463232 461233
      456233 453235 446236 439239 442242 450244 457245 465244
      469244 475247 482245
 1.00 370825 368820 366817 360816 353819 348824 342837 337849
      331855 326861 310873 297895 293904 293912 308922 313923
      320920 325917 331911 335906 341895 347890 351884 358874
      363858 365853 366845 370825
 1.50 478243 479239 479237 477234 476232 474233 473234 470236
      471241 472242 475243 478243 478243
 1.50 465239 464235 461237 458236 457236 457239 460238 463240
      465239
 1.50 457240 454238 451238 451239 454240 457240
 1.50 360829 359825 357823 354824 351825 347831 346835 344839
      346845 349851 352854 356855 358852 356849 357845 357837
      358833 360829
 2.00 478239 476234 473237 472237 473237 475240 478239 478239

$$