AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 840 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 OBS SHOW STRATUS AND LOW VIS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. AREAS OF FOG BELOW 2 MILES BEING REPORTED GENERALLY N OF A FLAGLER BEACH TO VALDOSTA LINE. MOST DENSE FOG ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM BUNNELL INTO JAX METRO AREA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY RAISED EARLIER AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THIS GOING. RADARS NOT TOO ACTIVE WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND ISOL S OF MARION COUNTY. PWATER AROUND 1.1 INCHES WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR IN THE 425-800 MB LAYER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN THE GA COAST AND INTO N CENTRAL FL WITH NE WINDS. MODELS DOING A POOR JOB REPRESENTING THE CURRENT WX SITUATION. WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD OVERNIGHT BASED ON RUC...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT WARM A DEGREE OR TWO. FEEL THAT THE SFC TROUGH OFF THE NE FL COAST WILL HAVE A TOUGHER TIME MOVING IN TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST. FARTHER N...PRECIP HAS BEEN STAYING N OF CWA AND THINK AT THIS POINT THAT DYNAMICS ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND SE GA. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER AREA COVERAGE BY ADVISORY SHOULD BE EXPANDED WWD SLIGHTLY. DENSE FOG TO THE S MAY BE DISPERSING SOME AS MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SE. ON THE MARINE SIDE...MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE DELAY ON SET OF SE WINDS. MODELS VEERING OF WINDS TOO QUICKLY AND SO DO NOT EXPECT THE SE FLOW TO BEGIN UNTIL MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE SERN OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WINDS MAY BE SHIFTING E AT THE PRESENT TIME. .JAX... .GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT GAZ153-154-165-166. .FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FLZ024-025-033. ARS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 940 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GEORGIA. RUC SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH. CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER. WITH WEDGE HOLDING IN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY. HAVE PUSHED THE THREAT OF SEVERE IN CENTRAL ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BEST LIFT AND BREAKING OF THE WEDGE MAY NOT BE TIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. THUS WILL ALSO INDICATE MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS UNTIL AFTERNOON SATURDAY. .ATL...NONE. 26 ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 950 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 WL UPDATE TO DISCONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MUCH OF ACCUMULATING FZRAPL MIX NOW CLEARING INTO SRN LWR MI COUNTIES. ONLY ANTICIPATE SCT LIGHT FZDZ RMNDR OF NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL APPRECIABLE ACCUM. STRONG UPR LVL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACRS ROCKIES SHARPENING MID LVL TROF INTO MSVLY WITH INCREASED LLVL CONVERGENCE INTO FA BY 12Z WITH PCPN REDEVELOPING BUT BY THEN SFC TEMPS PROGGED JUST AOA 0C PER 00Z RUC/ETA. .IWX...NONE. PBM in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1108 AM MST FRI DEC 15 2000 LATEST ANALYSIS HAS PIECE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST LATE THIS MORNING. ONCE IT GETS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE VASTLY COOLER THAN THE WESTERN CWA. FOR THAT REASON...I'VE LOWERED TEMPS OVER THE EAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES. TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BREEZY CAT PER RUC/RUCII/AND OTHER VARIOUS GUIDANCES. LOOKS AS IF THEY'LL AFFECT AREAS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SIG INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS. .GLD...WIND ADVISORY AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THEDE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 930 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 THE LATEST RUC MODEL THROUGH 12Z INDICATES THAT PRECIP EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY DURING THE NIGHT. A 300-MB JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN IN NOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN IL. AS THAT HAPPENS...A 925-MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER EASTERN KY SHIFTS WEST AS WELL AS HIGHER MEAN RH VALUES. MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KY...AND SHOULD RISE STEADILY INTO THE UPPER 40S BY DAYBREAK AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT. .JKL...NONE. SCHAUB ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1040 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 ...DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER CWA OVERNIGHT... CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z SOUNDING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES CONFIRM THE ETA FORECAST OF THE STRONG SURGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB... ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA (BASED ON RUC AND ETA CROSS SECTIONS) BY 06Z. GRR HAD ONLY A FEW MINUTES OF SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN. THAT WAS A LITTLE SURPRISING CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE DTX AND APX SOUNDINGS WERE THIS EVENING. IN ANY EVENT... THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION TO BE CONCERNED WITH. THE FIRST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL BURST OF MID LEVEL WAA AND JET COUPLING BETWEEN A JET SEGMENTS OVER IN AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THAT AREA MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY 06Z... AN THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WAA DECREASES. CONSIDERING HOW DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR IS THERE ALREADY... EXPECT ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NRN CWA AS THAT BANDS MOVES THROUGH AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SO WILL HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MORE SO THAN THE SNOW... EVEN OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA. THE SECOND AREA OF RAIN... IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COUPLING OF THE INDIANA JET WITH YET ANOTHER JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH. HOWEVER... THIS LIFTS OVER THE CWA DURING SATURDAY AND KEEPS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN. ALL OF THAT RESULTS (PLUS THE 160 KNOT JET STILL DIGGING INTO THE BACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH) IN A MORE SOUTHEAST TRACK ON THE SURFACE LOW. MORE IN LINE WITH THE OLD AVN. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE CWA NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY. THE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NRN IN WILL HELP THAT CAUSE TOO. SO THE QUESTION THEN IS... JUST HOW FAR WEST DOES THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN GET? CURRENTLY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVY RAIN WILL JUST MISS OUR CWA TO THE EAST. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL REALLY HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT CLOSELY SINCE THERE COULD BE WARNING CRITERIA ICE ACCUMULATIONS... MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LANSING TO BATTLE CREEK... IF THE HEAVIER RAIN DOES GET FARTHER WEST THAN IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODEL DATA. BOTTOM LINE IS I WILL HAVE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WITH NO MENTION OF SNOW. I ALSO DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF SNOW FORECAST OVER THE NRN CWA SATURDAY SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THERE. THE ADVISORY SHOULD STILL BE VALID SINCE EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS. .GRR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING... ALL OF THE SW QUARTER OF LWR MI (ENTIRE GRR CWFA). (MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074) WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1020 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 LTL CHG TO CRNT FCST AND NO CHANGE TO CRNT ADVISORIES...MAIN CONCERN IS SIMPLY THE TIMING OF THE PCPN INTO KMQT FA OVNT. AT 03Z... KARX AND KMSP RADAR SHOWED AREA OF WAA SNOW LIFTING THRU SRN MN AND CNTRL WI. POTENT S/WV LIFTING FM ERN NE INTO IA ATTM (SEEN ON IR PICS AND IN 00Z PLOT VIA 90M HGT FALLS AT OMA/TOP) WL PLAY A ROLE IN HEAVY SNOW TWD SUNUP. BROADER TROF XTNDS ALG THE ROCKIES W/ SFC REFLECTION SHOWING AS A 1002MB LOW OVR XTRM NRN NE. 3 HRLY PRESSURE FALLS CNTD ALG MS VALLEY SUGGEST SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF LOW WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ AFTN MODEL RUNS. MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE HGHT RISES 11MB OVR SERN MT. RUC 285-295K FIELDS SHOWS COND PRES DEFICITS ARND 30MB AND MIXING RATIOS APRCHG 3G/KG COINCIDENT W/ THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW. IT APRS THAT THE SNOW MAY BE ADVECTING NWD A TAD FASTER THAN THE 00Z RUC FCST. EXTRAPOLATION PUTS LGT SNOW INTO MENOMINEE CNTY ARND MIDNIGHT EST... THEN XPCT LGT SNOW TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD UPR MI OVNT. NEW ETA SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. AS LOW CLDS FILL IN OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR WD NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO... BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS WON/T BE THE MAIN SHOW. ETA CAPTURES NE/IA S/WV ON 00Z INITILIZATION AND LIFTS IT TWD UPR MI OVNT...THIS WL BEGIN TO ENHANCE WWA LFT LATE...W/ ETA OMEGA OVR W/CNTRL UPR MI MAXIMIZED BTWN 12-18Z. TEMPS ALREADY AT FCST LOWS.. W/ LGT GRADIENT WND CONTINUING AND WAA PTN DVLPG DON/T SEE THEM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. .MQT...SNOW ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MIZ001>005-008>014. SNOW ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MIZ006-007. DESROSIERS mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 943 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 THE 00Z UPPER AIR LAUNCH FROM THE OFFICE IS QUIET DRY BELOW 550MB. CLASSIC VEERING PROFILE WITH SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 600MB AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. KDTX 88D IN VCP31 (ONE VERSION OF THE CLEAR AIR MODE) SHOW ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO/INDIANA AND INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. SURFACE OBSERVATION AT KAZO 01Z INDICATED 2SM -PLRA AND KLAN 3SM -FZRAPL. THIS BAND SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE GRR 88D WITH REFLECTIVITIES GREATER THAN 40 DBZ AS IT PASSED OVER THESE LOCATIONS. FROM THE SOUNDING, OUR 850 TEMP IS ALREADY AT +2C AND IT REMAINS ABOVE 0C DOWN TO AROUND 900MB. A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS EXISTS TO THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS ALREADY ON THE WAY UP. HOWEVER...WET BULB PROFILES STILL KEEP THE SOUNDING BELOW 0C AND THIS WILL BE THE DIFFICULTY OVERNIGHT. H2O VAPOR WITH THE OVERLAY OF THE WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOW LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING (>50 KTS) ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT. 00Z RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA QUICKLY SATURATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE LAST AREAS BEING ACROSS THE THUMB AND TRI-CITIES COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K TO 300K SURFACE WITH QUICKLY DECREASING CPD/S WILL BRING A MIX BAG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL NOT BE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE 12 HOURS...THE GARCIA METHOD DOES NOT REALLY APPLY. CUT SPECIFIC HUMITIES IN HALF APPEAR TO BE THE WAY TO GO AND 1 TO AT MOST 3 INCHES UP IN THE THUMB LOOKS OKAY AS IN THE GOING ZFP...BUT WILL CUT BACK FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT MORE ICE COULD ACCUMULATE TOWARD THE THUMB AND THE TRI-CITIES AREA. WE WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN ALL MODELS WARM THE COLUMN UP TO BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE 00Z RUC LOOKS TO BE COMING IN LINE WITH THE 18Z ETA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RUC K-INDEX IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 25 TO NEAR 30! THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN CURRENT SNOW PACK. IN ADDITION FOG COULD BE A REAL CONCERN SATURDAY WITH WAA, RAIN AND MELT DOWN OF SNOW BUT HOPEFULLY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH. LOOKING QUICKLY AT THE 00Z ETA...LOW IS TAKING MORE OF A SOUTHERN TRACK (ETAXX WAS HINTING AT THIS ALL ALONG) AND IT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS DTW BY 06Z SUN. SOUNDINGS LOOK ABOVE FREEZING SO MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE CWA WITH HIGHER QPFS. MORE ON THIS WITH THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. COORD WITH GRR AND APX...THANKS! COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS ARE WELCOME. .DTX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MIZ075-076-082-083. GALE WARNING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY LAKE HURON. BGM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC 910 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 ZFP: AT 00Z A SHIP 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRYING PAN SHOALS OBSERVERD A SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 KNOTS AND FRYING PAN WAS REPORTING A WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS. SO OUR MEANDERING BOUNDARY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS. WEAK OVERRUNING IS BEING OBSERVERED WITH THE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE KLTX WSR-88D VWP VERIFIES THE OVERRUNNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1000 FEET AND A VEERING PROFILE TO THE SW AT 4000 FEET. RUC SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THE BEST LIFT IS SHOWN INLAND. WILL BUMP THE LOW TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. CWF: SEAS AT THE BUOYS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 10 FEET WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS PACKAGE. FCSTID = 7 ILM 49 70 57 58 / 60 40 60 30 LBT 46 65 55 55 / 70 50 70 30 FLO 47 68 55 55 / 60 50 60 30 MYR 49 70 57 58 / 60 40 60 30 .ILM... NC...SCA SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. SC...SCA LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. HAWKINS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1000 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 AREA OF SCT PCPN BECOMING MORE ISOLD AS MOST OF IT IS MOVG N AND E OF FA. WL UPDATE ZFP AS WE APCH MIDNIGHT...TO TAKE OUT MTN OF TIMING. LOOKING AT 00Z RUC DATA...THETA E RIDGE AND HIGHEST K INDEX VALUES JUST S OF FA IN CNTRL KY BY 12Z. BROAD AREA OF LL CONVG WL HELP FUEL PRECIP. WL KEEP WSW GOING FOR TNGT IN W CNTRL OH. PCPN SHUD NOT DVLP TIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THIS AREA...AND WTH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER AROUND...AM WONDERING IF MODELS ARE HANDLING SFC TMPS VERY WELL IN THIS AREA. WHILE THE CRNT TMP AT LIMA IS ALREADY 30...DWPT IS STILL 28 AND WL BE SLOW TO RISE. SO FZRA STILL A PSBLTY. .ILN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT OHZ026-034-035-043-044. DIAN-REED oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 842 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2000 DENSE FOG TOOK A BIT LONGER TO FORM THAN ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME LAST EVENING..THUS THE BUSTED ADVISORY ISSUED A BIT PREMATURELY LAST NITE. HOWEVER..AS EXPECTED..THE PROCESS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING ACROSS THE SNOW/ICE COVER HAS FINALLY RESULTED IN EXTREMELY DENSE FOG FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW METAR LOCATIONS EVEN REPORTING ZERO VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY. ALREADY UPDATED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 5 PM..AND MAY NEED TO UPDATE AND FINE TUNE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SAID ADV SOON. LATEST ROAD REPORTS FROM ODOT AND 11-3.9 SAT IMAGES INDICATE FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN AND WC OK..WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1/8 MILE VIS OR LESS INTO THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE ALREADY. LATEST MESONET IS SHOWING A SMALL MESOLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TX/OK STATE LINE.. AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY AID DENSE FOG FORMATION TO THE WEST OVRNITE WITH BACKED SFC FLOW. FOG WILL FINALLY BE SCOURED OUT LATE TONITE/SAT MORNING BY ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BLASTING SWD IN ERN WY. THE 00Z RUC BRINGS A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF THE FA BY 12Z..BUT THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL LAG THE WIND SHIFT BY AND HOUR OR TWO. TOMORROW WILL BE EXTREMELY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE INTENSE CAA THAT WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MIDNITE SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADV AND/OR WIND CHILL ADV FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR SAT. MILLER .OUN... OK...DENSE FOG ADV TONITE OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-040>043-046>048-051-052. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 942 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 TEMPS/DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT LOW IN NW...AND WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES THERE. BIGGEST CHANCE TO FORECAST IS IN N NC MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS RUNNING 29 F AT 3300 FT...WITH RAIN MOVING INTO AREA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH RNK...WILL MENTION POSSIBLE MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN. AGREE WITH RNK THAT HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. BEECH MT WAS 36 F AT 5000 FT. EXPECT MAIN EFFECT TO BE SOME ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WEDGE SETTING UP...AND ACCORDING TO RUC/MESOETA SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER AT BAY. FCSTID = 7 GSP 42 51 33 42 / 90 100 60 10 AND 42 51 33 42 / 90 100 60 10 CLT 40 51 34 41 / 90 100 60 20 HKY 35 46 33 36 / 90 100 60 20 AVL 39 53 29 31 / 90 100 60 20 .GSP... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 600 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE RUC SHOWS 1000 PM WINDS INCREASING THROUGH 12Z. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED BECAUSE OF THE WIND AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. PLAN TO UPDATE ZONES AND REMOVE DENSE FOG. RUC ALSO SHOWS MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW THROUGH THE MORNING SO PLAN TO PUSH BACK THE RAIN CHANCE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. FCSTID = 5 CAE 49 46 65 47 / 40 90 60 40 AGS 49 47 66 45 / 40 90 60 40 SSC 49 46 65 47 / 40 90 60 40 OGB 51 48 67 48 / 50 90 60 40 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 756 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2000 NQA RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI MOVING NORTHEAST WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ELSEWHERE LCL RAIN. BOTH LZK AND SHV RADARS SHOWING LESS COVERAGE MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR 100 PERCENT...WILL BE UPDATING TO LIKELY CAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 7 PM ARE SLOWLY RISING...AS WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND FREEZING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH TEMPS AROUND 50 DEGREES AT JAN AND TVR. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE AT THE MOMENT. CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS NEXT COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO TEXAS. WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RUC HAS THE CENTER OF LOW OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND WILL UPDATE WINDS TO BECOMING SOUTH. FIRST UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT SHORTLY... .MEG...NONE. ML tn SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1010 AM CST FRI DEC 15 2000 VIS SAT IMGRY SHOWS FG GRADUALLY WANING ACROSS HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL DENSE FG ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES MAINLY FROM BRICE E TO MEMPHIS AND DODSON HWVR COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE DENSE FG ADV. WL THEREFORE LET CURRENT ADV EXPIRE AND HANDLE ANY REMAINING DENSE FG WITH NOWS. AFTER FURTHER EXAMINATION OF THE H7 GRADIENT FROM THE 12Z ETA AS WELL AS THE RUC AND 06Z MESO-ETA CURRENT WIND SPEEDS IN THE ZFP STILL ON TRACK. TEMPS ALSO LOOK GOOD. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. .LUB...NONE. ST tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA 1005 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2000 MAIN QUEST THIS AFTN WITH CVRG OF RESIDUAL LOW CLDNS GIVEN BANDS OF SC SHOWING UP ON VIS PICS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND APLCHNS THIS MORN. WITH BLYR FLOW NOW ARND TO LGT NE EXPECT WILL SEE SOME OF THIS RH GET ADVECTED WWD AS SLGTLY DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ARND SFC HIGH AND WEAK MIXING DVLPS. GIVEN LATEST MESO-ETA/RUC IDEA OF KEEPING A SWATH OF HIER 85H RH UP AGAINST THE WRN RIDGES APRS MAY NEED TO LEAVE IN MORE CLDNS FAR SRN VA/NW NC AND BLUE RDG ZONES PENDING RELEASE CVRG. SINCE WILL HAVE ADNTL JET CI PUSHING ACROSS WILL UPDATE AND GNRLY CALL IT PRTLY SNY MOST AREAS EXCEPT MSTLY/VRBLY CLDY SRN PTNS ESPCLY EARLY SINCE SHLW SFC INVERSION LYR MAY BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. MORN THICKNESS TEMPS GNRLY CLOSE TO GOING FCST WITH MOST REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S THIS AFTN SO ONLY SMALL CHANGES THERE FOR THE AFTN. .RNK... NC...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 345 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 MAIN SHORT TERM CONSIDERATION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY IN THE NORTH AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWFA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THEIR IS NICE DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FOCUSED IN IL AND MO. THE RUC SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSING FURTHER EAST...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS THE GRADIENT OF THE 850 MB THETA IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND GIVES THESE AREAS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SEVERAL OFFICES IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL LEAN WITH A FFA FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWFA..ACCORDING THE LATEST SWODY1 CENTRAL KENTUCKY MAY SEE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. THIS MAY GIVE THE AREA THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE RATHER NASTY. MODELS HAVE SHOWN THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS TRYING TO DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WE ARE GOING TO BUY THE ETA/AVN SOLUTION...BECAUSE THEY DO BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AFTER THE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE TROF. THAT SEEMS TO BE THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION SINCE THE FAST FLOW WILL MOST LIKELY EJECT THIS SYSTEM OUT QUICKLY WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT. THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOWS A LOT MORE NEGATIVE TILT...WHICH WILL BE SLOWER IN BRINGING TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE SUFACE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WE SHOULD SEE COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND CAUSE A RAPID BUT STEADY DROP IN TEMPERATURES AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY STILL COULD BE IN ORDER...BUT AT THIS POINT I WOULD HATE TO MAKE THE CALL THIS EARLY SINCE THE MODELS SHOW BULK OF THE STRONGER WINDS FOCUSED FURTHERN SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW KICKS FURTHER NORTH WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WIND CHILL AND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR NOW WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT SORT THIS MATTER OUT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE WIND IN THE ZONES. TOMORROW THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BUILDING INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE ROTATING COMMA HEAD SHIFTING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOCUSED FURTHERN NORTH. THUS...WE KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OR REMAIN STEADY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. .SDF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA COX ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 515 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP SHOW DEEPENING TROF IN THE CNTRL CONUS WITH 150+ KT H3 JET MAX DIGGING SEWD THRU THE ROCKIES...12Z-00Z H7 FALLS UP TO 120M NOTED IN CNTRL PLAINS. BUT SFC LO STILL RATHER UNDEFINED AT 08Z WITH BROAD TROF STRETCHING FM KS-MN AHD OF ARCTIC AIR BEING DRUG SEWD BY DIGGING JET. H85 TEMPS -25 TO -30C ACRS MT AND SW CAN THIS EVNG WITH SFC TEMPS AS LO AS 0 AS FAR E AS CNTRL DAKOTAS AT 08Z. BEST PUSH OF THIS COLD AIR IS TOWARD THE SSE PER LARGE PRES RISES ACRS NB AND NNWLY WNDS. PVA AND WAD/MOIST ADVCTN AHD OF SHRTWV OVR IA AT 08Z PER RUC ANAL/SAT PIX HAS CAUSED AN AREA OF SN TO BRK OUT ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY THIS MRNG. NRN EDGE OF SN NOW AT CMX-ERY PER SFC OBS...BUT DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND MINIMAL DYNAMICS SO FAR KEEPING PCPN PATTERN MORE PTCHY PER 88D MOSAIC WITH VSBYS NOT TERRIBLY LO AT MOST PLACES. SOME -FZRA RPRTD AS FAR N AT TVC. BUT WATCHING APRNT JET MAX ROUNDING BASE OF TROF INTO MID MS VALLEY PER WV LOOP. DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WORKING INTO SRN WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND SN AMTS...GOING SN ADVYS AND PCPN TRENDS. AVN AND ETA IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF SFC/UPR AND FVRD FOR TDAY PER NCEP DISCUSSION. ETA APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON LLVL COLD AIR MOVG THRU PLAINS...SO FVRD FOR LATER PDS IN WAKE OF STORM SYS. FOR TDAY...XPCT JET ROUNDING BASE OF MIDWEST TROF AND LIFTING NWD INTO LWR MI THIS AFTN TO INTERACT WITH HIER MSTR...3-4 G/KG ON H7-75...SPRDG NWD AHD OF AMPLIFYING TROF AND LIFTING IA VORT MAX. COMBINATION OF THESE DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MSTR CNVGC SHUD ALLOW A PD OF HEAVIER SN...MOST LIKELY ARND 15Z PER MODEL FCST ARRIVAL OF H7 UVV MAX. CONFIDENCE INCRSD DUE TO DVLPMNT OF SECOND BAND OF HEAVIER SN ACRS SCNTRL WI JUST N OF DRY SLOT. MENTIONED MIX WITH SLEET AT ISQ PER FZRA OB AT TVC (FEEL SFC DWPTS TOO LO UPSTREAM FOR RA)...BUT ENHANCED UVV/COOLING SHUD KEEP MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF SN. XPCTD TRACK OF IA VORT MAX SUGS DRY SLOT WL MAKE PROGRESS INTO ENCTRL ZNS DURG AFTN...AND MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE DRYING IN LYR WITH TEMP -10 TO -15C. SO HAVE GONE WITH TAPERING SN TO -FZDZ OR EVEN DZ IN FAR E WHERE LOSS OF UVV AND CONTD SELY FLOW AHD OF INVERTED TROF IN CTNRL CWA WL TAKE TEMPS AOA 32 THIS AFTN. AS FOR AMTS...XPCT SN TO LAST INTO THE EVNG OVR FAR WRN ZNS WITH VORT MAX TRACKING OVHD OR JUST SLGTLY SE PER SAT TRENDS. THESE PLACES SHUD MISS OUT ON MOST DRY SLOTTING...BUT PASSAGE OF VORT DURG AFTN SUGS PCPN INTENSITY THERE WL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTN AS WELL. IMXR METHOD SUGS 3-4" SN/6 HRS...AND COOK METHOD WITH H2 TEMPS SUGS A MAX OF 10" IN 24 HRS PER ETA FCST H2 (20C DIFFERENCE BTWN WARM POCKET IN TROF AND COLD POCKET UNDER DOWNSTREAM RDG). BOTH METHODS SUG UP TO 4" IN 6 HRS... SO MAX TOTAL OF 8" OVR FAR W WITH AMTS DIMINISHING TO THE E AS DRYING ALF CUTS DOWN ON PCPN TIME. ALTHOUGH ADVY AMTS MAY BE TENUOUS IN THE E...HAVE MAINTAINED MINIMAL ADVY THERE FOR CONTINUITY. ARRIVAL OF UPR TROF TNGT AND DVLPMENT OF SFC LO TO THE E WL INCRS NWLY FLOW OVR CWA AT SAME TIME MODELS SHOW INCRSG H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE WITH UPR MSTR LIFTING TO THE NE. BLYR-H85 WNDS FCST TO ARND 30KTS...SO WENT WINDY EVERYWHERE AND ADDED BLSN TO ZNS THAT FAIL TO GET ABV FRZG TDAY. DESPITE DVLPMNT OF CAD...H85 TEMPS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LES XCPT OVR WRN LK SUP (DELTA-T DOWN TO -17C THERE LATE WITH INVRN HGT NR 5K PER BUFKIT FCST SDNGS). WITH LOSS OF DYNAMICS AND POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT....HAVE NOT HIT LES TOO HARD...SCT -SHSN EVERYWHERE. MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO HIER FWC PER ETA BLYR FCST TEMPS. ETA INDICATES COLD AIR WL MAKE MORE PROGRESS EWD TMRW WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -16C (DELTA-T TO 20C) AS CYC FLOW BEHIND SFC LO DIMINISHES AS SYS CONTS TO MOVE EWD. SO MENTIONED STEADY/FALLING TEMPS EVERYWHERE. H85-5 VECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL BE LIMITING FACTOR AS UPR RDG AXIS APRCHS FM W...BUT LONG FETCH ACRS ERN LK SUP WITH NWLY FLOW AND FCST LLVL CNVGC IN CNTRL WRN ZNS SUGS LIKELY POPS ALGER/LUCE AND ONT-CMX-KEWEENAW. LWRG INVRN HGT SUGS AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE IN ZNS NOT FVRD WITH NWLY LLVL FLOW. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH/YQT. .MQT...SNOW ADVISORY THIS MORNING MIZ012-013. SNOW ADVISORY TODAY MIZ004>007-010-011. SNOW ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING MIZ001>003-009. GALE WRNG LK SUP. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1115 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 12Z MESOETA AND RUC MODELS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN AXIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST FOR THE TIME BEING. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR SE AND E COUNTIES ALSO. FFG VALUES RUNNING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 IN 1 HR TO 1.5-2.0/3 HRS. WE HAVE DECIDED...BASED ON RADAR PICS/SAT PICS/TRENDS AND OTHER DATA TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. THINGS ARE GETTING WET HOWEVER AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THIS ASPECT AGAIN. LATEST VIS SAT PICS SHOWING A FEW HOLES IN THE CLDS OVER SW PORTION OF CWA AND SOME THIN SPOTS IN OVC OVER PORTIONS OF TN. STRONG SFC WINDS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN YET OVER E KY...BUT KJKL 88D VWP STILL SHOWING 40KT AT 2K/55 KT AT 4K INCR TO 65 KT AT 6K. THEREFORE WILL LET THE WIND FCST STAND THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH IM NOT QUITE SURE WE WILL MET ADVISORY CRITERIA..IT SHOULD BE CLOSE. RADAR COMPOSITES BEGINNING TO SHOW A BOW CONFIGURATION OVER CENTRAL KY AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE MAINLY FOR COSMETIC PURPOSES. .JKL...WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HALL ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1024 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2000 FORECAST FOCUS IS SNOW TRENDS AND TOTAL ACCUMS...THEN WINDS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. MOST ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR ACROSS CWA RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ON RADAR ARE OVER OUR E WIS CWA AND ARE LIFTING NORTH AS THE SFC LOW MOVED NE THROUGH WISCONSIN. MSAS AND RUC PLOTS SHOW THIS LOW BETWEEN GRB AND WAUSAU...WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO NE MN. AN H5 VORT MAX IS LIFTING NE FROM NEAR LACROSSE AS WELL. MAIN ENHANCED SNOWS SEEM TO BE ON THE NOSE OF THIS VORT WITH H7 OMEGA FIELDS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THIS FORCING LINGERS MAINLY IN THE FAR MN ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE GUN FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TOTALS...BUT HAVING MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO THIS POINTS THAN MOST OTHER AREAS...ONLY AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED THERE. EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SNOW THERE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS FOR A 24 HR PERIOD...WITH SOME ISOLATED 8" TOTALS POSSIBLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING EVERYWHERE. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ALMOST OVERHEAD IN OUR CWA RIGHT NOW...AND IR ENHANCEMENT CONTINUES TO PEPPER THE AREA. STEADY LIGHT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING EVERYWHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH IRON COUNTY INTO THE EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THE INVERTED TROF HAS KEPT HEIGHT RISES OUT OF THE REGION...SO WINDS HAVE REMAINED ON THE LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING. EVEN THEN...THE BEST PRESSURE RISES AND STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY MISS US. WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS /-40 TO -60/...AND WITHOUT STEADY WINDS OVER 20 MPH...VISIBILITIES MAY NOT BE CONSISTENTLY REDUCED ENOUGH TO WARRENT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR ANY OVERNIGHT HEADLINES. COORD WITH MPX. .DLH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>003-006>009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING WIZ004. SHIMON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 500 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2000 MULTITUDE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE...THOUGH MOST OF FOCUS HAS BEEN ON FIRST TWO PERIODS. ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. WHAT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SURPRISING IS DEGREE OF WARMING THAT OCCURRED ACROSS CWA DURING PAST 18 HOURS. RESULTANT MELTING OF SNOW VERY IMPORTANT FOR TODAY'S FCST. QUICK TEST OF SNOW OUTSIDE REVEALED MELTING HAS TURNED VERY FLUFFY SNOW CRYSTALS INTO MUCH WETTER SNOW. THUS...DESPITE STRONG WINDS TODAY...CURRENT SNOW COVER SHOULD MOSTLY STAY PUT. SO...NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL. UPWARD FORCING FROM UPPER LOW WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG TODAY...AND WILL ALSO SEE SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA RESPONSE FROM FRONTOGENETICAL PROCESSES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LIMITED TO LOWEST 150 MB OR SO UNTIL LIFTING PROCESSES SATURATE MID LAYERS. MID LEVEL MOISTENING APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR MAINLY TO OUR EAST...SO MODEL QPFS THAT ARE FAIRLY LOW LOOK REASONABLE. SO...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RELATIVELY LIMITED...THERE SHOULDN'T BE THAT MUCH SNOW TO BLOW AROUND. EXCEPTION MAY BE IN SERN ZONES WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE HIGHEST. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH NR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SERN ZONES...BUT WILL ALLOW DAY CREW TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY SORT OF WARNING. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW IN ERN ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT MOISTURE DROPS OFF PRETTY FAST BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT. AS FOR WIND CHILLS...WILL PROBABLY GET CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA IN NW MO BY LATE AFTN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY'S SAKE...JUST WENT WITH WARNING FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT. HAVE OPENED UP RANGE ON WINDS TO 25 TO 40 GIVEN CURRENT SFC OBS IN NEB. MAINTAINED CHC SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON AS MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SYS COMING THROUGH. 850 TEMPS WARM TO ABV ZERO BY 00Z SUN...SO DAY CREW WILL WANT TO LOOK AT PCPN TYPE. TEMP-WISE...OBVIOUSLY WILL STICK WITH FALLING TEMPS TODAY AND USED A COMBO OF 06Z ETA...AVN AND RUC TEMPS TO DETERMINE LATE AFTN TEMPS. ALSO USED 06Z ETA...AVN AND MAV GUIDANCE COMBO FOR TEMPS IN 2ND-4TH PERIODS. FWC OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNREALISTIC. TEMPS IN 3RD/4TH PERIODS ESPECIALLY TRICKY AS WAA STARTS ALOFT...THOUGH NOT MUCH REFLECTION AT SFC UNTIL LATE IN 4TH PERIOD. .EAX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALL ZONES TODAY. WIND CHILL WARNING ALL ZONES TONIGHT. MANION mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 950 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 THIS IS ONE OF THOSE...CHASE YOUR TAIL...FORECASTING DAYS. UPDATE GENERATED TO ADJUST TIMING AND MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT WINTER WX ADVSRY. PRECIP SHIELD EXTREMELY FRAGMENTED PER RGL RADARS ACROSS PA WITH ONE SLUG MISSING MOST OF AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. JUST A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WITH MORE INTENSE PRECIP BACK TOWARD OH VALLEY WHERE LLJ IMPINGING ON AXIS OF THETA E RIDGE. 00Z AVN DEPICTED THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL WITH A QPF MIN ACROSS CWA THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. RUC NOW FOLLOWING SUIT WITH BARELY ONE-HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH PAINTED. THOUGHTS ARE NOW THAT CWA WILL NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS ON THE DOORSTEP AND WHATEVER EJECTS NORTH. WL STILL KEEP CAT POPS BUT WATER DOWN WORDING TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AS AN IMPULSE WILL GENERATE MORE PCPN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SVRL BREAKS IN ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. TOUGHEST DECISION IS ON HEADLINE WITH TEMPS ABOUT AS MARGINAL AS CAN BE. MESONET OBS SHOW SITES ABOVE...AT...AND BLO FREEZING. COLDEST AIR IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH THE ELY WIND COMPONENT. STILL A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF GLAZING...SO UNTIL SIG WARMING IS NOTICED...I WILL KEEP ADVSRY UP AND WL EXTEND THE TIMING DUE TO PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TIMING...AND/OR CHANGEOVER TIMING. WORK ZONES GONE. FINALS SHORTLY. WL PROBABLY HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE IN A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO PM PACKAGE TO RID US OF FZRA. WL HV TO SAVE COMMENTS ABOUT HVY RAIN TIL LATER...BUT INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE HSA CAN HANDLE ANTICIPATED BASIN AVG QPF. .BGM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICING ALL AREAS...EXTENDED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH - MID AFTERNOON NORTH. BREWSTER ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1039 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 MODELS INDICATE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO CAE CWA 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME. BUT RUC SURFACE COMPUTED LIS KEEP ZERO LINE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 00Z. THEREFORE...FEEL THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO CAE CWA BEFORE THAT TIME. WILL UPDATE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES. AND WILL TAKE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR MUCH OF CWA. MAY MENTION ONE OR TWO IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FCSTID = 7 CAE 49 49 50 23 / 80 90 20 0 AGS 52 50 50 22 / 80 90 20 0 SSC 49 49 50 23 / 80 90 20 0 OGB 55 52 52 23 / 70 80 20 0 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1010 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2000 STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE TO CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD. CALLS PLACED AROUND HAVE VSBYS RUNNING 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN BLOWING SNOW. FURTHER WEST IN THE RIVER COUNTIES...VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED TO GREATER THAN 2 MILES WITH SUNSHINE PEAKING THROUGH. LATEST RUC CONTS TO SHOW TIGHT GRADIENT OVER ERN CWA DURING DAY...AND WITH FLUFF RECEIVED LAST NIGHT...BLOWING SNOW STILL PROBLEM. HAVE DROPPED BLIZZARD WARNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG MO RIVER AND CHANGED TO A WIND CHILL WARNING. BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT REMAINDER OF CWA. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT. .ABR...BLIZZARD WARNING TODAY AND EVENING...NE SD AND WC MN. WIND CHILL WARNING TODAY...CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL SD. HINTZ sd SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1030 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2000 MORN H8 ANALYSIS SHOWS SIG CAA ACROSS THE FA WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OVR SRN KS. 12Z MESO-ETA EXTRAPOLATED THIS NXT SURGE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NE PARTS OF THE CWA BY 15Z. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE SINCE THE SFC WND AT KCDS/KPVW HAVE SIG PICKED UP WITH ISALLOBARIC RISES OF +8MB/3HR STILL OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL AND NRN OK. RUC AND MESO-ETA DERIVED SOUNDINGS HINT AFTN HIGHS WL ONLY RISE A FEW MORE DEG ACROSS THE N-CNTRL AND NE ZONE AS H8 TEMPS DECR TO AROUND -4C. DESPITE FULL SUN WHICH WOULD NORMALLY COUNTER-ACT CAA...SUN ANGLES ARE JUST ABOUT AS LOW AS THEY GET ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WINTER SOLSTICE LESS THAN A WEEK AWAY. WL THEREFORE EITHER DECR TEMPS A CATEGORY OR WORD TEMPS HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE AFORMETIONED AREAS...PENDING THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SFC WINDS ARE THE NEXT CONCERN. KPVW AWOS JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 35KT WITH KCDS ASOS 38KT AND BOTH STATIONS SUSTAINED >25KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECR A BIT BY MID AFTN AS CAA WAINES BELIEVE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY IS PRUDENT FOR THE NE ZONES AS WINDS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE THE CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST THE NXT FEW HRS. .LUB...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTN TXZ025-026-031-032. ST tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1119 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 WILL OPT TO UPDATE GOING ZFP TO BACK-PEDAL A TAD ON THIS UPCOMING MIXED PCPN EVENT TODAY. HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. YET ANOTHER CAD SIGNATURE SHOWING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. STORM SYS TO TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER...STORM SYS TO TRACK DOWN THE OH VLY TONITE. WK UPR RIDGE TO CREST ACRS THE FA TODAY. 09Z RUC SHOWS SFC PRESS GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TODAY. TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE L20S-L30S TODAY. MESONET OBS SHOWED A VERY WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACRS THE FA AT 14Z WITH READINGS AS COLD AS AROUND 10 DEG F UP IN THE NE KINGDOM AND AROUND 30 DEG F IN THE SRN ST LAW VLY. T1MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S TODAY. WILL HAVE TO WIDEN UP HI TEMP RANGES FOR TODAY. E-SE SFC WINDS OF 5-15 KTS TO DEVELOP TODAY. MID-LVLS TO MOISTEN UP BY 15Z TODAY. LOW-LVLS TO MOISTEN UP BY AROUND 18Z TODAY. BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE TO BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS PCPN EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA AFTER 18Z TODAY WITH NE/NC VT MAYBE NOT SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE DAYLIGHT (WHAT LITTLE THERE IS THESE DAYS) HRS OF TODAY. RUC ALSO SHOWS THAT A PLETHORA OF P- TYPES (SN/PL/FZRA) ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA TODAY...MOSTLY FZRA THOUGH. GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO FREEZING PCPN STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN. JUST PLAIN RA POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ST LAW VLY BY LATER TODAY. PW VALUES TO INCREASE TO 0.5"-1" TODAY. PCPN NOW SHOWING UP ON 88D MOSAIC ACRS WRN NY STATE AND NRN PA. WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVISORY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED BUT WILL DROP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE REST OF TODAY ACRS THE FA. H85 WAA TO STRENGTHEN ACRS THE FA TODAY AND BE STRONG TONITE. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TONITE. GOOD LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY/TONITE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPR-LVL DYNAMIX NOTED AFFECTING THE FA RIGHT THRU TONITE. H85 TEMPS GO POSITIVE ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 00Z TONITE. 925 MB WET-BULB TEMPS DON/T DO POSITIVE UNTIL JUST BEFORE 06Z TONITE THOUGH. PCPN STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RA ACRS THE ENTIRE FA TONITE. PW VALUES TO FURTHER INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO 1"+ TONITE. 40-60 KT H85 JET TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TONITE AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO DELVE FURTHER INTO THE FLOODING/HIGH WIND THREAT FOR SUN ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD WIND FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. NUMEROUS COSMETIC CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AS WELL. WILL WAIT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY AROUND 1130 AM AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST OBS. .BTV...WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005- 009-011 WINTER WX ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT NYZ026-027-029>031-034-VTZ003- 004-006>008-010-012. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 324 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 FCST CHALLENGE IS PCPN TYPE AND AMOUNTS TONIGHT. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND HAVE USED THE ETA/AVN. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING AHEAD OF LOW OVR TN/KY/OH. UPPER SYSTEM ROUNDING BASE OF TROF AND LIFTING N SEEN ON WV AND IR. RADAR LOOPS FM LITTLE ROCK AND MEMPHIS SHOW PCPN DEVELOPING WITH THIS WAVE AND MOVING QUICKLY NE. SFC LOW TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AND TRACK NNE ACRS CENTRAL OH. MODELS WRAP DEEP MOISTURE AROUND LOW TONIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TROF. MODELS IN GD AGREEMENT ON MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SE FA LATER THIS EVENING. QUESTION IS HOW FAR NW IT WILL MOVE. NGM MOST AGRESSIVE AND DISCOUNTED ATTM. ETA/AVN MORE SIMILAR AND LATEST MESOETA AND RUC SHOW IMPRESSIVE OMEGA MOVING ACRS CENTRAL FA LATER THIS EVENING. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING SITES AND AGREE WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS IN THE SE OVERNIGHT...ADVSRY IN ORDER. WL TAPER AMOUNTS ACRS NE INDIANA WITH SMALLEST ACCUMS IN NW WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT MORE LIMITED. AGREE WITH GRR THAT FZDZ POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN NW WHERE LIFT IS WEAKEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. WL HAVE AN ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR SE FA AND EVENING SHIFT WL HAVE TO MONITOR MO/AR WAVE AND DECIDE IF ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE BROUGHT MORE TO THE NW LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND ARCTIC FNT AND WL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS. .IWX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT...GRANT...BLACKFORD...JAY... WELLS AND ADAMS INDIANA...VAN WERT...ALLEN...PUTNAM...PAULDING... DEFIANCE...HENRY AND FULTON OHIO. LASHLEY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 CONCERNS INCLUDE TAPERING OFF OF PCPN THIS EVNG...DEVELOPMENT OF LES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEN MORE SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. TONIGHT...LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED DRYING ALF LIFTING INTO U.P. FROM SOUTH. 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATE RAPID TAPERING OFF OF -SN OVER PAST HR WITH DRY SLOTTING ALF. OBS STILL LESS THAN 1 MI IN -SN OVR KEW PENINSULA SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT (LAKE DELTA-T NR 10C) MAYBE HELPING OUT AMTS THERE AND ALLOWING SNOW TO PERSIST LONGER THIS EVNG. HWVR...AS SHRTWV CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVNG AND 850 MB-SFC LOW LIFTS NE...ENHANCEMENT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE LOST EVEN OVR KEW-CMX SO JUST INCLUDED 1-2 INCH ADDITIONAL AMTS THERE BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVNG. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SNOW AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN INCH. THUS...DROPPED ALL WSW HEADLINES OVR FA ASSOC WITH SYNOPTIC SNOW. SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALF IN WAKE OF SHRTWV AND LLVL MOIST LYR WARMER THAN -8C...KEPT IN MENTION OF PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ MIXED IN WITH FLURRIES THIS EVNG IN CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. CAA IN STG NW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC-850 MB LOW LATE TONIGHT WILL YIELD PREDOMINANT ICE CRYSTALS IN MOIST LLVLS AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL TO -12 WRN LAKE TO -10 ERN LAKE BY 12Z...PER 12Z MODELS. LOOK FOR SCT LES DVLPMT LATE ALG LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES. CBL WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF FALLEN SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. .SUNDAY...INCREASING CAA WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN CBL BUT ETA SNDGS INDICATE PRESENCE OF INV NR 900 MB WHICH SHOULD SERIOUSLY LIMIT LES ACCUMS FOR 4 WRN ZONES AND ALGER-LUCE-NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. DUE TO MOIST LLVLS WITHIN LYR WL GO WL FAVOR NUMEROUS CVRG FOR ONT-CMX-KEW AND ALGER-LUCE IN 310-320 CBL FLOW WITH SCT LES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTH. EXPECT GUSTY WNDS TO 25 KTS ERY WITHIN CBL TO MIX TO SFC...SFC GRAD WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER EAST. SOME WK SFC RDDG INTO WI BDR ZONES MAY RESULT IN A FEW PATCHES OF AFT SUN. WL STRESS COLDER TEMPS AND WND. .SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT ...12Z ETA/AVN MODELS A BIT FASTER WITH NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SHRTWV DIVING SOUTH INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AND CARVING AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVR U.P./WRN GRT LKS. INCREASING MID-LVL MSTR AND 850-500 Q-VECT CONV AHD OF SYSTEM AND INCRG SFC CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW JUST TO SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN LIKELY SNOW FOR WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SOME FOR ALL ZONES ON MONDAY. ONSET OF ONSHORE NNE WINDS BEHIND SFC LOW MON AFT INTO MON NIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED AT -16C TO -18C SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT CHC FOR ACCUMULATING LES FOR MQT-BARAGA SO KEPT CAT POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT HERE. ELSEWHERE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ALG NORTH FOR LES AND LIKELY POPS EVNG FOR SW ZONES WITH LINGERING SYSNOPIC SNOW. .EXTENDED...MRF AND ECMWF SHOW COLD UPR TROF LINGERING OVER AREA INTO MID WEEK...TEMPS TO -20C OR LWR WITH ONSHORE SFC FLOW THRU MUCH OF PD...LEFT CHC OF SNOW. RDGG BY MODELS AND MRF ENSEMBLES LATE IN WEEK SHOULD BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER PD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. .MQT...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1145 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2000 UPDATE CONCERN IS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK PUSHING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...WITH DRY SLOT APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR/IR/RADARS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH BEST 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO. 12Z RUC/ETA TRACK THE LOW NORTHEAST TODAY...BRINGING THE DRY SLOT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. TIME SECTION FOR ERY SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER LIMITING ICE CRYSTALLIZATION. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST OF SNOW TAPERING TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BUMPED UP TEMPS ALGER/LUCE AS MUNISING/NEWBERRY ALREADY 34F. MAIN PROBLEM IS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA...WHERE SPOTTER REPORTS FROM HOUGHTON COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 3-4" OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER 2-3" BETWEEN 8AM AND 10AM. KCMX OBSERVATION REPORTING +SN FOR NEARLY 2 HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS HEAVY SNOWFALL AND EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 10"/24 HOURS...AND WILL UPGRADE THE SNOW ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOWFALL. .MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING INTO THIS EVENING MIZ001-003 SNOW ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING MIZ002-009 SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON MIZ004>007-010-011 SNOW ADVISORY INTO THIS AFTERNOON MIZ012-013 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. JHB mi