AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 200 PM EST WED DEC 24 2003 CURRENTLY A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS PLAGUED MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY IS SLOWLY ERODING WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT THAT PASSED THOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW CROSSING CENTRAL FL AND EXTENDS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW AND DEW POINTS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. && SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOMORROW...BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER ARES MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO, GOING WITH A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR COOLEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA AND WINDS CALM OUT. BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE INTRODUCED TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS DIMINISHED THE MOISTURE IN THE UP LEVELS SOME...SO, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND AND SW GA. && MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN UP AT SCEC CONDITIONS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE REST OF THE CWF FORECAST. && FIRE WX: THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE VALID THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FL ZONES DUE TO MARGINAL LOW RH VALUES. && EXTENDED FX: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND PRODUCE BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. BY MONDAY A CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPS AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 30 58 30/ 00 00 00 00 PFN 34 57 39/ 00 00 00 00 DHN 32 54 34/ 00 00 00 00 ABY 30 54 30/ 00 00 00 00 VLD 31 58 32/ 00 00 00 00 CTY 33 60 32/ 00 00 00 00 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR ALL SE AL ZONES GA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR ALL SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA ZONES. FL...RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES EXCEPT COAST. FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR INLAND CENTRAL BIG BEND COUNTIES. $$ BOLINSKI PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.*********************************************** .SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT MAX THAT HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE ERN USA UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE CWFA. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWFA WITH COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR NW CWFA. BIGGEST CONCERN IS TIMING THE CLEARING OF THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW A SHARP TRAILING EDGE TO THE CLOUDS AT THE WRN BOUNDARY OF OUR CWFA...BUT MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXIST NW OF THE CWFA...WHICH IS UPSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL NOT CHANGE CLOUD COVER WORDING MUCH IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR FORECASTED VALUES. && .MARINE...LATEST RUC PROGS BRING WINDS BACK UP TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE SCEC. BUOYS SHOW 7 FEET..BUT AS THEY ARE JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA...WILL TOP FORECAST OUT AT 6 FEET. && $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ************************************************** 230 AM EST WED DEC 24 2003 CURRENTLY: CLOUDY ACROSS LOCAL AREA WITH PATCHY FOG AND CIGS 8-15 HUNDRED FEET W OF RIVER UP TO 7-10K E OF RIVER WITH LOWER CIGS SPREADING E/SE. DOPPLER MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ERN FLA BIG BEND..WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVR THE APALACHEE BAY SPREADING E/SE AND SHUD BE OUT OF OUR CWFA BY MID-MORNING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS UNIFORMLY BOTH MID-UPR 50S. WINDS FROM NW 15 MPH NW THIRD OF CWFA TO CALM-LIGHT SLY ERN THIRD. && DISCUSSION: TODAY:LARGE UPR TROF OVR ERN THIRD OF CONUS WITH LO OVR ERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TODAY. THIS WILL DRAG ASSOCD COLD FRONT FROM APALACH REGION SWWD INTO GULF..EWD INTO WRN ATLC THIS EVENING. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK LOW OR WAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT SSE OF PANAMA CITY WITH ABOVE SRN TAIL OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO GULF AND NE THRU ERN MOST SE ALA. THIS ACCOUNTING FOR WIND DIFFERENCES NOTED ABOVE. DEVELOPMENT OF PANAMA CITY WAVE MAY ACT TO SLOW DOWN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND ESPECIALLY CLEARING OUT OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PER CURRENT MOVEMENT AND MESO-ETA/LAPS...FRONT SHUD EXIT VALDOSTA 15Z AND DIXIE COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS AROUND 17Z-18Z. FORECAST WILL SHOW 20-30 PCT RAIN POPS FOR EARLY MORNING HOURS SE BIG BEND...AOB 10 PCT ERN GA ZONES AND ZERO POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME FOG BUT NOT ENUF TO MENTION IN ZFP. PER SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS...WILL SLOW DOWN TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS IN ZFP 1ST PERIOD WORDING WITH M/CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY W OF RIVER BY MIDDAY...DURING AFTERNOON ERN THIRD..AND REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE BIG BEND. WINDS VEER BEHIND FRONT AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH. GFS/MET/FWC TEMP GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER WITH DELAYING EXIT OF CLOUDS..WILL UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES EAST OF RIVER. FOLLOW GUIDANCE W OF RIVER. TONIGHT: CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY BY LATE EVENING. INLAND TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 30..POSSIBLY UPPER 20S COLDEST SPOTS. ALTHO COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREV SYSS...FREEZE WARNING STILL LIKELY BUT PER OFFICE POLICY WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH OR WARNING AND DEFER TO DAY SHIFT FOR FINAL DECISION. HOWEVER WILL HIGHLIGHT IN ZFP/HWO. THURS-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT FOR NE FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. SOME UPR LVL CLOUDS MAY ADVECT IN THRU SRN STREAM H5 SHORT WAVE THURS INTO FRI...OTHERWISE CHRISTMAS DAY SUNNY AND COOL WITH MAX TEMPS MID-UPR 50S. FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THEN HI MOVES EAST AND WINDS VEER AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SLATED FOR EARLY WEEK. RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATE SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM...(MON-TUE). HI MOVES E INTO WRN ATLC IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SYS. PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SE USA ON TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT N OF THE CWFA MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW. WILL SHOW POPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY. && MARINE: OVERNIGHT BUOYS SHOW MARGINAL SCA CONDS WELL OFFSHORE BUT EXPECT SEA AND WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THRU DAY. ALTHO SCA CONDS MAY BE MET EARLY MORNING...WILL INTRO HIGH END SCEC CONDS FOR BOTH WRN AND ERN WATERS. && FIRE WX: WATCH TOMORROW FOR ALL OF FLA DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 61 30 58 30/ 00 00 00 00 PFN 59 34 57 39/ 00 00 00 00 DHN 56 32 54 34/ 00 00 00 00 ABY 58 30 54 30/ 00 00 00 00 VLD 62 31 58 32/ 05 00 00 00 CTY 66 33 60 32/ 20 00 00 00 && BLOCK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 955 AM EST WED DEC 24 2003 .SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWFA IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT MAX THAT HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE ERN USA UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE CWFA. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWFA WITH COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR NW CWFA. BIGGEST CONCERN IS TIMING THE CLEARING OF THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW A SHARP TRAILING EDGE TO THE CLOUDS AT THE WRN BOUNDARY OF OUR CWFA...BUT MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXIST NW OF THE CWFA...WHICH IS UPSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL NOT CHANGE CLOUD COVER WORDING MUCH IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR FORECASTED VALUES. && .MARINE...LATEST RUC PROGS BRING WINDS BACK UP TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE SCEC. BUOYS SHOW 7 FEET..BUT AS THEY ARE JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA...WILL TOP FORECAST OUT AT 6 FEET. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST. && $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ************************************************** 230 AM EST WED DEC 24 2003 CURRENTLY: CLOUDY ACROSS LOCAL AREA WITH PATCHY FOG AND CIGS 8-15 HUNDRED FEET W OF RIVER UP TO 7-10K E OF RIVER WITH LOWER CIGS SPREADING E/SE. DOPPLER MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ERN FLA BIG BEND..WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVR THE APALACHEE BAY SPREADING E/SE AND SHUD BE OUT OF OUR CWFA BY MID-MORNING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS UNIFORMLY BOTH MID-UPR 50S. WINDS FROM NW 15 MPH NW THIRD OF CWFA TO CALM-LIGHT SLY ERN THIRD. && DISCUSSION: TODAY:LARGE UPR TROF OVR ERN THIRD OF CONUS WITH LO OVR ERN GREAT LAKES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TODAY. THIS WILL DRAG ASSOCD COLD FRONT FROM APALACH REGION SWWD INTO GULF..EWD INTO WRN ATLC THIS EVENING. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK LOW OR WAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT SSE OF PANAMA CITY WITH ABOVE SRN TAIL OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO GULF AND NE THRU ERN MOST SE ALA. THIS ACCOUNTING FOR WIND DIFFERENCES NOTED ABOVE. DEVELOPMENT OF PANAMA CITY WAVE MAY ACT TO SLOW DOWN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND ESPECIALLY CLEARING OUT OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PER CURRENT MOVEMENT AND MESO-ETA/LAPS...FRONT SHUD EXIT VALDOSTA 15Z AND DIXIE COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS AROUND 17Z-18Z. FORECAST WILL SHOW 20-30 PCT RAIN POPS FOR EARLY MORNING HOURS SE BIG BEND...AOB 10 PCT ERN GA ZONES AND ZERO POPS ELSEWHERE. SOME FOG BUT NOT ENUF TO MENTION IN ZFP. PER SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS...WILL SLOW DOWN TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS IN ZFP 1ST PERIOD WORDING WITH M/CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY W OF RIVER BY MIDDAY...DURING AFTERNOON ERN THIRD..AND REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE BIG BEND. WINDS VEER BEHIND FRONT AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH. GFS/MET/FWC TEMP GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER WITH DELAYING EXIT OF CLOUDS..WILL UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES EAST OF RIVER. FOLLOW GUIDANCE W OF RIVER. TONIGHT: CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY BY LATE EVENING. INLAND TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 30..POSSIBLY UPPER 20S COLDEST SPOTS. ALTHO COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PREV SYSS...FREEZE WARNING STILL LIKELY BUT PER OFFICE POLICY WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH OR WARNING AND DEFER TO DAY SHIFT FOR FINAL DECISION. HOWEVER WILL HIGHLIGHT IN ZFP/HWO. THURS-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT FOR NE FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. SOME UPR LVL CLOUDS MAY ADVECT IN THRU SRN STREAM H5 SHORT WAVE THURS INTO FRI...OTHERWISE CHRISTMAS DAY SUNNY AND COOL WITH MAX TEMPS MID-UPR 50S. FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THEN HI MOVES EAST AND WINDS VEER AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SLATED FOR EARLY WEEK. RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATE SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM...(MON-TUE). HI MOVES E INTO WRN ATLC IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SYS. PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SE USA ON TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT N OF THE CWFA MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW. WILL SHOW POPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY. && MARINE: OVERNIGHT BUOYS SHOW MARGINAL SCA CONDS WELL OFFSHORE BUT EXPECT SEA AND WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THRU DAY. ALTHO SCA CONDS MAY BE MET EARLY MORNING...WILL INTRO HIGH END SCEC CONDS FOR BOTH WRN AND ERN WATERS. && FIRE WX: WATCH TOMORROW FOR ALL OF FLA DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 61 30 58 30/ 00 00 00 00 PFN 59 34 57 39/ 00 00 00 00 DHN 56 32 54 34/ 00 00 00 00 ABY 58 30 54 30/ 00 00 00 00 VLD 62 31 58 32/ 05 00 00 00 CTY 66 33 60 32/ 20 00 00 00 && BLOCK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 205 PM MST WED DEC 24 2003 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH AND ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THEN WASH OUT NEAR DAWN ALONG A TRENTON TO COLBY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DRAINAGE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AGAIN BELOW COLDEST GUIDANCE. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS RUC II FORECASTING LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS WOULD FAVOR FOG OVER STRATUS. KHLC CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE WILL BE AROUND 28 AND KMCK 25. MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS BUT SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS HAVING A HARD TIME HOLDING TOGETHER EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ISC WILL PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL ALERT INCOMING SHIFT FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY/FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE USED FOR THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES. LEE TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CIRRUS WILL BE THIN AND WAS NOT A FACTOR FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER MODEL RUNS AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN COUNTIES. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER...AS ETA/GFS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF LOW SPINNING UP IN COLORADO. NATIONAL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION PREFERS THE ETA SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT FROM ALTERNATIVE MODELS. THUS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW ANTICIPATED...AND WARM ADVECTION OVERDONE IN THE GFS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN ETA WILL BE PREFERRED OVER THE GFS FOR THIS SYSTEM. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE DYNAMICS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LIMITED INSOLATION AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH UPPER PATTERN RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. STRATEGY HERE WILL BE TO HEDGE OPERATIONAL GFS SENSIBLE WEATHER PARAMETERS TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT A LESS PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THEREFORE A SLOWER EROSION OF THE COLD AIR MASS WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM AS OPERATIONAL GFS HAS DELAYED NEXT SHORTWAVE/SHOT OF COLD AIR UNTIL DAYS 8 OR 9...AND THE BITTERLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO STAY BOTTLED UP IN ALASKA. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 625 PM EST WED DEC 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... OBS INDICATE WIND GUSTS OF 35 - 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO WARMED TO THE LOWER 50S ALONGT THE COAST AND IN MID-MAINE. EXPECT COLD AIR IN VALLEYS TO CONTINUE TO ERRODE AS SLUG OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. RUC/WSETA SHOW THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE BY 06Z. GENERALLY EXPECT QPFS IN THE .50-1.00 RANGE...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00 IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSIN... CRNT RADAR SHOWING HVST PRECIP BTWN THE HUDSON AND CT RVR VLY ATTM. PROGS INDICATE SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH QPF (DOWN FROM THE 1 TO 2 INCHES PRVSLY FCST.) STILL XCPCT HVR SLUG OF PRECIP OVR THE F/A DURG EVNG HOURS TO ARND 06Z WTH TMPS IN THE 40S. WILL CONTU WTH FLD WATCHES AS THEY'RE ALRDY UP AND STILL CUD BE PROBS WTH SNOWMELT/RUNOFF/ANY ASSOCIATED ICE JAMS. NO BIG RUSH TO BRING IN COLDER AIR ON XMAS SO LUKS LIKE CHC RN/SN SHWERS UPPER ELEVATIONS WTH CHC LIQUID CSTL/INTR SXNS. PERHAPS CHC SNW SHWERS THU NITE AS TMPS DROP BACK TO AOB FRZG. STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTUALLY GO LIGHT BY DAYBREAK. MAY GET SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE COAST SO WILL ADD MENTION OF PSBL MINOR CSTL FLOODING FOR NOOTIME HIGH TIDE ON XMAS DAY. WEEKEND LUKS RELATIVELY QUIET. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS FOR ZONES MEZ007>009... MEZ012>014...MEZ020>021. NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS FOR ZONES NHZ001>007. && $$ APFFEL me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 855 PM EST WED DEC 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... ...SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR LO CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GRT LKS BTWN RDGS OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...CWA IN CYC NLY FLOW BTWN THE SFC LO NEAR LK ONTARIO AND A HI PRES RDG NOW MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP. A SHRTWV OVER ERN ONTARIO ROTATING SWWD IN THE NE FLOW ALF ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR LO IS EVIDENT ON WV LOOP...WITH SOME ENHANCED CLD COVER JUST BRUSHING THE ERN ZNS ON CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV AXIS AS EVIDENCED ON IR AND WV SAT LOOP. QUITE A GRADIENT OF DEEP MSTR IS EVIDENT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE UPR LO...WITH 00Z APX SDNG SHOWING NEAR SATURATION FM THE SFC UP TO H5. HOWEVER...00Z GRB SDNG INDICATES HI RH CONFINED TO A 100MB LYR FM THE BASE OF AN INVRN ANRD H9 TO H8...WHICH IS TOPPED BY A VERY DRY MID TROP. 23Z GOES DERIVED SDNG FOR WAWA ONTARIO SHOWS MSTR FM THE SFC UP TO H85...WITH DRYING ABV THAT LVL. 18Z ETA AND 21Z RUC FCST SDNGS FOR ERY SHOW DRY LYR BTWN H9 AND H7 MAINTAINED NO DOUBT BY DRY ADVCTN FM THE NE (WAWA). SO DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE ENHANCED CLD COVER ARND ERY/ISQ...SFC OBS INDICATE JUST PTCHY -SN THERE AND 88D SHOWS NO ECHO OVER THAT LOCATION (ARND 10K FT). SC IN LIGHT NLY FLOW OFF LK SUP PERSISTS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA UNDER LO INVRN NOTED ON THE GRB SDNG. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RDG AXIS TO THE W AND SFC BASED INVRN DEPICTED ON 00Z INL SDNG HAS RESULTED IN CLRG OVER THE FAR W NR IWD. 01Z TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ARE IN THE 20S...BUT THE MERCURY HAS FALLEN TO 7F ALREADY AT IWD WITH THE CLRG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE PCPN CHCS OVER THE ERN ZNS AND CLD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS. SINCE RUC/ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW DRY AIR PERSISTING IN THE H7-9 LYR OVER ERY WITH A CONTD DRY NNE FLOW...THINK JUST FLURRIES WL FALL OVER THE E EVEN WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON CYC SIDE OF SHRTWV LOBE (USUALLY FVRBL FOR PCPN) ROTATING ARND UPR LO TO THE S. BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOCLDY DURING THE NGT WITH ONLY A MINIMAL TEMP DROP AS LLVL NNW FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER INVRN MAINTAINS SC DECK. FARTHER W... RUC/ETA SHOW SFC RDG AXIS MOVING INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. SO AS THE SFC BASED INVRN MAKES GRDL PROGRESS EWD...SUSPECT BACK EDGE OF SC TO CONT DRIFTING E SO THAT CLRG GRDLY OVERSPREADS THE W HALF OF CWA. ETA FCSTS H925 TEMP TO RISE MORE QUICKLY (I.E. INVRN BASE LOWERING FASTER) AFTER 06Z NEAR THE WI BORDER FARTHER INLAND FM THE MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW OFF LK SUP...SO SUSPECT THE CLRG WL MAKE FASTER PROGRESS E OVER THE SRN ZNS. SINCE UPSTREAM MINS THIS MRNG NR THE SFC RDG AXIS WERE WELL BLO ZERO AND FOG FRMD AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS...DROPPED FCST TMINS OVER THE INTERIOR FAR W BLO ZERO AND PAINTED IN PTCHY FOG OVERNGT. MERRY X-MAS TO ALL AND TO ALL A GOOD NGT! KC ...LONG TERM... THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO NEW YORK STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE A RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS SUN WILL ACCOMPANY A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S. THE MID AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE EASTERN ONTARIO AS A THE SURFACE LOW TREKS NORTHEAST. MODELS START TO DEVIATE AT THIS POINT. GFS IS PULLING THE LOW INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE ETA PULLS THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST MO. GFS IS ALSO QUITE A BIT DEEPER WITH THE LOW THAN ETA. UKMET AND CANADIAN SUPPORTS A WEAKER SOLUTION...BUT MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT THE SAME AS GFS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS WEAK SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. GFS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO A CLOSE LOW ON SATURDAY PRODUCING A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW...WHERE AS ETA SHOWING THE LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL QUICKEN NORTHEAST AND MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN EITHER CASE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND FEED THE INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THICKNESSES AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED...THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WILL WAIT ON FORECASTING THAT. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THERE SEEMS TO BE VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT. THERE ALSO IS A PROBLEMS WITH THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS START SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA PUSHING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE U.P. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REACH TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ALL THE WHILE ESCORTING THE COLD FRONT INTO WISCONSIN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE MOIST GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND START TO DIMINISH THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. COOL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE RIDGE SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM AND STIFLE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. DLG && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 333 PM EST WED DEC 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW NEAR KDTX AND A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MANITOBA. A ELONGATED SHORTWAVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WHILE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS STARVED FOR ANY MOISTURE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL TREK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DO NOT RULE OUT FLURRIES...AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER TODAY HAD LIMITED ANY SURFACE HEATING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR A LITTLE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. THUS WITH LIGHT WINDS THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TERRESTRIAL RADIATION AND COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA. CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST PART OF CWA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO NEW YORK STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE A RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS SUN WILL ACCOMPANY A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S. THE MID AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE EASTERN ONTARIO AS A THE SURFACE LOW TREKS NORTHEAST. MODELS START TO DEVIATE AT THIS POINT. GFS IS PULLING THE LOW INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE ETA PULLS THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST MO. GFS IS ALSO QUITE A BIT DEEPER WITH THE LOW THAN ETA. UKMET AND CANADIAN SUPPORTS A WEAKER SOLUTION...BUT MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT THE SAME AS GFS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS WEAK SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. GFS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO A CLOSE LOW ON SATURDAY PRODUCING A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW...WHERE AS ETA SHOWING THE LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL QUICKEN NORTHEAST AND MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN EITHER CASE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND FEED THE INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THICKNESSES AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED...THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WILL WAIT ON FORECASTING THAT. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THERE SEEMS TO BE VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT. THERE ALSO IS A PROBLEMS WITH THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS START SHOWING UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA PUSHING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE U.P. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REACH TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ALL THE WHILE ESCORTING THE COLD FRONT INTO WISCONSIN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE DRAWING MORE MOIST GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND START TO DIMINISH THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. COOL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE RIDGE SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM AND STIFLE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1118 AM EST WED DEC 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... FCST ISSUES THIS AFTN ARE LINGERING -SN AND CLOUDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WITH A SHARP RIDGE TO THE W...EXTENDING FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO MANITOBA. REFLECTION AT THE SFC IS A HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM IA TO NE MN TO JAMES BAY WITH LOW PRES OVER PA/NY. WITH RIDGE NEARING... INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/DRIER AIR/LOWERING INVERSION HAVE RESULTED IN A STEADY DIMINISHING TREND OF LES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KMQT RADAR SHOWING NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES MOVING INTO NCNTRL FCST AREA NOW. WITH RIDGE DRIFTING E THIS AFTN AND WEAK WAA FROM THE N...EXPECT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PATCHY -SN ROTATING AROUND NW FLANK OF UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED INTO ERN FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN WITH ONLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. TO THE W OF THERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD TOUGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AHEAD OF RIDGE PER RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS KEEPS LAKE GENERATED CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT. HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO TONIGHT AND XMAS PERIODS...MAINLY TO TRIM BACK COVERAGE OF FLURRIES TONIGHT AND TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF FLURRIES ON XMAS AS SLIGHT WARMING CONTINUES AND INVERSION DROPS TO A CRUSHING 1-2KFT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 633 AM EST WED DEC 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... ...UPDATE... NEEDED TO GO WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER ONTONAGON AND THE KEWEENAW TODAY. DOMINANT BAND FROM THUNDER BAY TO ONTONAGON COUNTY IS PERSISTING DESPITE THE ETA AND RUC SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 3000 FEET. THIS CASE WILL BE AN INTERESTING ONE TO RESEARCH...AS I BELIEVE THE BAND IS BEING HELPED BY CONVERGENCE FROM THUNDER BAY...AND CONVERGENCE FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF ISLE ROYALE. PRE-CONDITIONING FROM LAKE NIPIGON ALSO HELPING SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 1-3 INCHES TODAY OVER THE WEST TODAY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE NNW PER THE 06Z ETA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. MRD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.... FCST DEALS WITH DIMINISHING LES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN A WARMUP FOR THU AND FRI. AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SRN LWR MI AND THEN AN AMPLIFIED RDG FM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS STATES. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM -12C OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE THERMAL TROUGH TO AN INCREDIBLE 13C OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA (EDMONTON) WITH WELL ABOVE ZERO TEMPS INTO THE NW TERRITORIES. AT SFC...THERE IS A LOW OVER SE ONTARIO WITH A RDG OVER WRN ONTARIO INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. TODAY...LES LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON IR SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS AS DRIER AIR (SUB-ZERO DEWPOINTS) FINALLY WORKING IN FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHD OF SFC RDG. DOMINANT BAND WHICH BROUGHT HEAVIER SNOW TO ONTONAGON COUNTY LAST EVENING ALSO LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE IN PAST FEW HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS PER ETA MODEL. WITH 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING SE OF LAKE TODAY PER MODEL DATA...WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING TREND ON LES TO ONLY CONTINUE. GIVEN CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW AND MARGINAL LAKE DELTA-T'S WILL KEEP IN SCT LAKE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL ZONES. SHORT FETCH LENGTH OVER ERN COUNTIES WILL RESULT IN JUST FLURRIES THERE...WILL ALSO KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN FOR SRN ZONES. EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPS GIVEN LAKE CLOUDS AND FRESH COVER FOR MOST NRN LOCATIONS...SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER ETA MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS...LEFT IN EVENING SCT -SHSN FOR WRN AND NCNTRL ZONES WITH WKLY CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW LINGERING BUT THEN INVERSION HGTS PLUMMET LATER TONIGHT WITH BUILDING RDGG FROM NW. WK NW FLOW AND VERY SHALLOW LYR OF COLD AIR NR SFC MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR ON XMAS BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT NICE SUNNY DAY MOST PLACES. MIXING TO AROUND 950 MB WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FLOW BACK MORE WLY AS SFC RDG MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LGT WLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE THROUGH DWPNTS ESPECIALLY NEAR WI BDR. AREAS NORTH MAY HAVE ENOUGH WIND AND MIXING TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. BELIEVE MOS GUIDANCE 5-10 DEGREES TOO WARM OVER MOST LOCATIONS FOR THU NIGHT. ETA FCST DWPNTS SUGGEST INLAND TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ALONG THE WI BDR...IN LINE WITH GOING FCST. BUMPED UP FRI HIGH TEMPS AS ETA AND AVN MOS SNDGS SHOW VERY WARM TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC. IN FACT...MIXING TO JUST 950 MB WOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 40S MANY LOCATION. I DIDN'T GO QUITE THIS HIGH YET BUT I DID BUMP THEM UP A NOTCH INTO THE UPPER 30S. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 855 PM CST WED DEC 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... SAME SCENARIO AS LAST EVENING...JUST DISPLACED EAST ABOUT 100 MILES. RIDGE AXIS PER OBS/MSAS RUNNING THRU WCNTL WI AND TEMPS HERE HAVE FALLEN FASTEST. DROPPED MINS MOST AREAS A FEW DEGRS AS TEMPS QUICK TO FALL AFTER SUNSET...WITH SOME ALREADY A FEW DEGRS FROM FCST LOWS. QUITE A FEW 5-7SM VSBYS CROPPING UP...WITH SOME LOWER SPECKLED IN ACRS ERN MN/WRN WI. ETA/RUC BUFR DATA SHOWING SAME TRAPPING OF MOISTURE IN VRY LOWEST LAYERS OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HITTING AND FALLING BLO X-OVR READINGS. ALSO...RICHARDSON NUMBERS AGAIN SUGGESTION FOG MORE OF A LIKELIHOOD THAN ST DECK. BROUGHT PF+/AF+ INTO ERN MN AND EARLIER TOO THAN GOING GRIDS. MANY OBS NOW CLOSING IN ON TD DEPRESSIONS <3C SO FG SHUD KEEP FORMING GRADUALLY. CHRISTMAS DAY AGAIN LOOKING SPECTACULAR ONCE MORNING GRUNGE (FG/ST) BURNS OFF. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ BINAU mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1030 AM EST WED DEC 24 2003 WILL UPDATE ZFP TO GO WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES THIS AFTN. MAIN PCPN BAND MOVING OFF OUTER BANKS AND MODELS INDICATE MAIN LIFT WILL BE N AND E OF AREA THIS AFTN...SO DECREASING POP TREND OF CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WRN NC AND COULD SEE SOME SCT DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT OVR ERN NC THIS AFTN. WILL GO WITH 30 POPS ALL ZONES EXCEPT 50 OUTER BANKS. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK...ALREADY IN LOWER 60S AND SHOULD MAKE MID TO UPR WITH LITTLE OR NO SUN. MARINE...TIGHTEST PGRAD APPEARS TO HAVE MVD N AND E OF OUR WTRS... BUT SEAS REMAIN QUITE HIGH...THUS WL KEEP SCA FOR SEAS GOING TODAY. OVER OUR SOUNDS...SINCE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BLO 20 KT...WL DROP HEADLINES THERE. OTHERWISE...WL MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND RUC40 WHICH INDICATES WINDS BECOMING SW AND CONT TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...SCA COASTAL WATERS. $$ JBM/NP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 822 PM EST WED DEC 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... THIS EVENING...THE CURRENT SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY IS MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF A KCVG TO KCMH LINE...AND IT IS MOVING SE OUT OF THE FCST AREA. THE RUC40 AND ETA SHOW THE H5 LOW MOVING NE OF FCST AREA BY 12Z. AS IT DOES...A SERIES OF WEAK FEATURES WILL ROTATE AROUND IT...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST. STILL...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATER WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. CURRENT FCST ACTUALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. NO NEED TO ADJUST GRIDS AND OTHER FCST PRODUCTS AS THEY SHOW POPS DECREASING BY LATE EVENING. WILL REFLECT THIS WORDING ON ZFP ON UPDATE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 215 PM EST WED DEC 24 2003 .SHORT TERM... RUC40 DEPICTED CLOSED UPR LOW OVER NE INDIANA AT 18Z. WATER VAPOR AND RUC40 ALSO HAVE SHOWN SEVERAL VORT MAXES SPINNING AROUND THIS UPR LOW. THE VORT MAX NOTED OVER S CNTRL INDIANA WAS MAINLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SEEN ON KILN RADAR. AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES OFF TO THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE. LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED. ANOTHER VORT MAX DIVES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...FOLLOWED BY THE LAST MAIN VORT MAX BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z (AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...WHICH TENDS TO HANDLE PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES SUCH AS VORT MAXES BETTER). AS OF NOW...HAVE PENCILED IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS S CNTRL OHIO/NE KY. THEREAFTER ...ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. ON CHRISTMAS...AS STATED ABOVE...THE LAST MAIN VORT MAX TO AFFECT OUR REGION MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE BY AFTN ONCE THE VORT MAX IS WELL SE OF THE REGION. ALSO...WAA BEGINS TO COMMENCE IN THE LOW LVLS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM SW TO NE FROM CHRISTMAS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NE FROM THE TN VLY FROM CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A REBOUND AS WAA CONTINUES IN THE LOW LVLS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER MAKER BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK. .LONG TERM... FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS FOLLOWS WITH HPC THINKING WHICH FAVORS THE EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION. THIS ALSO HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM AND CANADIAN MODELS. AS A RESULT A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST WHICH WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AND WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE BROUGHT THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MAY START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN AND MINOR DISTURBANCES RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. EXPECT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 940 AM MST WED DEC 24 2003 .DISCUSSION...LATEST SURF ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN KS WITH LOW PRES OVER AB. LEE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MT AND INTO NORTHEAST WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC SHOW RIDGE AXIS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS RIGHT NOW. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD AS THE TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST. REMAINDER OF SD PLAINS WILL STAY IN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THRU THE AFT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL EAST OF THE HILLS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOWER TO MID 50S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. CURRENT FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS WELL...SO AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AN UPDATE AT THIS POINT. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...NONE. .WY...NONE. && $$ ST sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1110 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 WITH HIGH CLOUDS EVEN THICKER THAN EXPECTED...WILL DROP THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LOWER AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES EXCEPT COAST. && $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. **************************************************** 900 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 .OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE CWFA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER TX. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. GFS PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY BASED ON GFS H5-H3 RH PROGS. && .FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES OVER FL THIS AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BUT DO NOT INTEND TO DROP THE CURRENT WARNING. && .MARINE...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RUC PROGS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ****************************************************** 230 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 CURRENTLY: CLEAR ACROSS LOCAL AREA. TEMPS FROM AROUND FREEZING SE ALA/NRN SW GA SECTIONS TO NEAR 40 FLA COAST. DEW POINTS FROM 30 NRN MOST COUNTIES TO AROUND 40 COAST. 24 TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON SHOWS THAT LOCAL AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN SAME TIME LAST NIGHT WHEN FRONT WAS CROSSING CWFA. WINDS GENERALLY N 5-10 MPH. DISCUSSION: HO HO HO !!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS AND SANTA WILL BRING A BAG FULL OF FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEEKEND FOR HIS AREA RESIDENTS. DEEP LO OVR GREAT LAKES TO MOVE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH LARGE SCALE TROF MOVG E ACROSS WRN CONUS THRU SHORT TERM. THUS SE CONUS TO REMAIN UNDER INFLU OF RIDGE YIELDING FAIR WX. CLOSER TO HOME...SATELLITE SHOWS UPR SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL GULF THIS MORNING TOWARDS CWFA SPREADING INCRG CIRRUS. AT SFC...HI CENTERED LWR MISS VALLEY BUILDING E/SE. NO POPS IN FORECAST THRU WEEKEND. FORECAST QUESTION IS 1ST/2ND PD TEMPS AND FLY IN OINTMENT IS ABOVE MENTIONED CIRRUS. BOTH FASTER ETA AND SLOWER GFS MODEL SHOW SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD AND BRINGING INCRG CIRRUS...TIMING BOTH MODELS ETA CLEARS US OUT AROUND 2 AM AND GFS AROUND 4-5 AM. THIS DIFFERENCE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING EXTENT OF RAD COOLING AND OVERNIGHT MINS AND FREEZE WARNING POTENTIAL. FIRST FOR 1ST PERIOD..MODELS IN GENLLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS COOLEST AND ETA WARMEST. BELIEVE CIRRUS WILL HAVE MORE OF IMPACT THAN MODELS SHOW SO FOR NOW WILL BUT COOLEST TEMPS (GENERALLY GFS) FOR THIS AFTN. LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. LINGERING CIRRUS WILL OBLIGE ME TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS INLAND AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND COASTAL SECTIONS ABOVE FREEZING. BUT A SHIFT OF ONE OR TWO DEGREES CAN ALTER SCHEME. FOR NOW PER OFFICE POLICY..WILL HEADLINE ZFP WITH FREEZE WARNING POSSIBLE SE ALA/GA...LIKELY FLA INLAND. ZFP WILL BREAK UP FLA INTO INLAND/COASTAL SECTIONS. 1ST PERIOD WILL SHOW P/CLOUDY WITH MNLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. FRI-SAT...AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...RIDGING BUILDS OVR CWFA AND SFC HI MOVES EWD TO VCNTY OF CWFA ON FRI. WINDS VEER TO NE/E AND MAX TEMPS WARM UP TO LOW TO MID 60S. LACK OF CLOUDS FRI NIGHT AND PREDAWN LOWS DROP TO AROUND FREEZING COLDEST INLAND SPOTS. ON SAT...HI SHIFTS EWD AND WINDS VEER TO ESE WITH RISING TEMPS. && EXTENDED: HI PRES AND FAIR WX HOLD ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY A CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPS AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUES INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCES MON AND TUESDAY. NEW GUIDANCE A TAD FASTER AND MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO INHERITED SUNDAY NIGHT-MON FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && MARINE: PREDAWN BUOYS SHOWS CONTS DECR IN WINDS AND SEAS. WILL CONT ONE CWF GROUPING WITH SLOWLY DECRG CONDS INTO SAT B4 SLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. && FIRE WX: RH GRIDS SHOW AROUND 4 HOURS OF AOB 35 PCT RH THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WX FORECASTER WILL LIKELY GO WITH RED FLAG BIG BEND ONLY TODAY WITH WATCH FOR ALL OF INLAND FLA TOMORROW. && THANKS JAX FOR COORDINATION && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 55 30 62 34/ 00 00 00 00 PFN 54 35 61 39/ 00 00 00 00 DHN 52 34 60 38/ 00 00 00 00 ABY 52 30 59 35/ 00 00 00 00 VLD 54 31 63 36/ 00 00 00 00 CTY 59 30 64 37/ 00 00 00 00 && $$ BLOCK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 900 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 .OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE CWFA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER TX. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. GFS PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY BASED ON GFS H5-H3 RH PROGS. && .FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES OVER FL THIS AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BUT DO NOT INTEND TO DROP THE CURRENT WARNING. && .MARINE...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RUC PROGS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON BIG BEND. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES EXCEPT COAST. && $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ****************************************************** 230 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 CURRENTLY: CLEAR ACROSS LOCAL AREA. TEMPS FROM AROUND FREEZING SE ALA/NRN SW GA SECTIONS TO NEAR 40 FLA COAST. DEW POINTS FROM 30 NRN MOST COUNTIES TO AROUND 40 COAST. 24 TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON SHOWS THAT LOCAL AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN SAME TIME LAST NIGHT WHEN FRONT WAS CROSSING CWFA. WINDS GENERALLY N 5-10 MPH. DISCUSSION: HO HO HO !!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS AND SANTA WILL BRING A BAG FULL OF FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEEKEND FOR HIS AREA RESIDENTS. DEEP LO OVR GREAT LAKES TO MOVE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH LARGE SCALE TROF MOVG E ACROSS WRN CONUS THRU SHORT TERM. THUS SE CONUS TO REMAIN UNDER INFLU OF RIDGE YIELDING FAIR WX. CLOSER TO HOME...SATELLITE SHOWS UPR SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL GULF THIS MORNING TOWARDS CWFA SPREADING INCRG CIRRUS. AT SFC...HI CENTERED LWR MISS VALLEY BUILDING E/SE. NO POPS IN FORECAST THRU WEEKEND. FORECAST QUESTION IS 1ST/2ND PD TEMPS AND FLY IN OINTMENT IS ABOVE MENTIONED CIRRUS. BOTH FASTER ETA AND SLOWER GFS MODEL SHOW SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD AND BRINGING INCRG CIRRUS...TIMING BOTH MODELS ETA CLEARS US OUT AROUND 2 AM AND GFS AROUND 4-5 AM. THIS DIFFERENCE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING EXTENT OF RAD COOLING AND OVERNIGHT MINS AND FREEZE WARNING POTENTIAL. FIRST FOR 1ST PERIOD..MODELS IN GENLLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS COOLEST AND ETA WARMEST. BELIEVE CIRRUS WILL HAVE MORE OF IMPACT THAN MODELS SHOW SO FOR NOW WILL BUT COOLEST TEMPS (GENERALLY GFS) FOR THIS AFTN. LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. LINGERING CIRRUS WILL OBLIGE ME TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS INLAND AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND COASTAL SECTIONS ABOVE FREEZING. BUT A SHIFT OF ONE OR TWO DEGREES CAN ALTER SCHEME. FOR NOW PER OFFICE POLICY..WILL HEADLINE ZFP WITH FREEZE WARNING POSSIBLE SE ALA/GA...LIKELY FLA INLAND. ZFP WILL BREAK UP FLA INTO INLAND/COASTAL SECTIONS. 1ST PERIOD WILL SHOW P/CLOUDY WITH MNLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. FRI-SAT...AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...RIDGING BUILDS OVR CWFA AND SFC HI MOVES EWD TO VCNTY OF CWFA ON FRI. WINDS VEER TO NE/E AND MAX TEMPS WARM UP TO LOW TO MID 60S. LACK OF CLOUDS FRI NIGHT AND PREDAWN LOWS DROP TO AROUND FREEZING COLDEST INLAND SPOTS. ON SAT...HI SHIFTS EWD AND WINDS VEER TO ESE WITH RISING TEMPS. && EXTENDED: HI PRES AND FAIR WX HOLD ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY A CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPS AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUES INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCES MON AND TUESDAY. NEW GUIDANCE A TAD FASTER AND MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO INHERITED SUNDAY NIGHT-MON FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && MARINE: PREDAWN BUOYS SHOWS CONTS DECR IN WINDS AND SEAS. WILL CONT ONE CWF GROUPING WITH SLOWLY DECRG CONDS INTO SAT B4 SLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. && FIRE WX: RH GRIDS SHOW AROUND 4 HOURS OF AOB 35 PCT RH THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WX FORECASTER WILL LIKELY GO WITH RED FLAG BIG BEND ONLY TODAY WITH WATCH FOR ALL OF INLAND FLA TOMORROW. && THANKS JAX FOR COORDINATION && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 55 30 62 34/ 00 00 00 00 PFN 54 35 61 39/ 00 00 00 00 DHN 52 34 60 38/ 00 00 00 00 ABY 52 30 59 35/ 00 00 00 00 VLD 54 31 63 36/ 00 00 00 00 CTY 59 30 64 37/ 00 00 00 00 && $$ BLOCK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1025 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 .UPDATE... SEVERAL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED AN AVERAGE OF 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTS ALREADY BETWEEN 5-6 INCHES. SO TO MEET OUR LOCAL CRITERIA OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS...WE EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE THE TRI CITIES AND TUSCOLA COUNTIES. UPSTREAM RADARS AND IR SATELLITE PIXS SHOW WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WEAKENING QUICKLY YET IN THE HEART OF THE BAND (I75 CORRIDOR) REFLECTIVITIES HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WINTRY SCENE WAS CENTERED NEAR BUFFALO NEW YORK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WRAPPING IN ALL THE WAY AROUND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATE. LATEST EXP. RUC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ADDITIONAL LIFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT HURON COUNTY WILL BE ON THE EDGE. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR OVER HURON COUNTY BUT SOME BANDING IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE FROM P58-BAX ON 8-BIT DATA. WHILE IT IS TAKING AWHILE...SNOW SHOULD PICK UP HERE AS WELL. ACROSS DTW-ARB AND POINTS SOUTH...AS EXPECTED SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HAS REDUCED THE SNOW AND WE WILL KEEP HEADLINES OUT OF THIS SECTION OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES DECREASE LATE TODAY AND SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. GRIDS AND PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. THANKS FOR THE COLLABORATION APX! BGM && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 419 AM EST 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE...WITH A NUMBER OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INTO QUEBEC...WITH A SHARP TROUGH BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDE AREA OF SNOW APPARENT ON REGIONAL RADARS...EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AGAIN IN THE FIRST PERIOD...REVOLVING AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND RESULTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OVERALL ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR TAKING THE UPPER LOW TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY SLOWLY EAST SO FAR OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL PICK UP AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SWINGS AROUND AND HELPS ACCELERATE IT EAST. MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS TRANSLATES TO MORE APPARENT DIFFERENCES WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. GFS INDICATES BETTER LIFT FARTHER WEST THAN THE ETA...BRINGING GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CWA. COMPARED TO ENHANCED CLOUDS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CWBI/CWGJ /BRITT/MONTREAL RIVER/ REFLECTIVITY PATTERNS...GFS 700MB/500MB OMEGA PATTERNS APPEAR TO VERIFY BETTER THAN THE ETA AT 06Z. WILL THEREFORE LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. OMEGA FIELD IS A RESULT OF DECENT WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. ALSO SOME DPVA RESULTANT FROM SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED AROUND 285K SURFACE. INITIAL SURGE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO GENERAL 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. APX RADAR UPSTREAM DOES SNOW A BIT OF A BREAK OUT OVER LAKE HURON...BUT WITH UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS FILLED IN WITH SNOW BACK INTO QUEBEC. 00Z GFS/06Z RUC ROTATE A BULLSEYE OF STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE CWA GENERALLY 12Z-18Z...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY NEAR SUNRISE. GFS/RUC ALSO SIMILAR WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AROUND 2G/KG. GFS ALSO QUICKLY SWINGS THE PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA...WITH MOS POPS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANYTHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT QUITE BY INTO THIS TIMING GIVEN UPSTREAM RADARS AND A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SWING THE SYSTEM EAST TOO QUICKLY. WILL HOLD ON TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...MENTIONING HEAVIEST SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. DURATION OF LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND AM LEANING TOWARD A LONGER DURATION. CROSS SECTIONS/TIME SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE BEST LIFT CENTERED RIGHT AROUND THE -15C ISOTHERM...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH. GIVEN SNOW AMOUNTS WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT...WILL OPT FOR HIGH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES TODAY. THIS WOULD PUT US AT A TOTAL NEAR 7 INCHES FOR THE EVENT...BUT SPREAD ACROSS 18 HOURS. DO NOT SEE MOST AREAS RECEIVE WARNING CRITERIA OF 6" IN 12HR/8" IN 24HR /EXCEPT FOR HURON COUNTY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH/. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW BUT EXTEND IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A LATER ENDING TIME AND WITH THE OPTION OF CANCELING IT EARLY IF NECESSARY. WAYNE COUNTY IS A POTENTIAL PROBLEM. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD RECEIVE SIMILAR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO LIVINGSTON/SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. HOWEVER THEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH SNOW AS THE COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST...WHERE WE COULD BE SEEING SOME LAKE MICHIGAN INTERACTION/ENHANCEMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS. BEST LIFT/MOISTURE DOES PASS JUST NORTHWEST OF WAYNE...SO WILL KEEP THEM AT 2-4 INCHES FOR THE DAY. FOR HURON COUNTY...WILL UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH BACKS TO THE NORTH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH 850MB COLD POOL HOLDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. ALSO GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCES INDICATED NEAR THE TIP OF THE THUMB. WITH THE ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WILL INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS TO 4-6 INCHES FOR TODAY. HURON COUNTY CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTED AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE PORT AUSTIN AREA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WARNING CRITERIA OF >= 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. LIFT/MOISTURE PULLS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WE SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING SKY COVER FORECAST SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE FOR TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...WITH DROP MINS TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES ON SATURDAY. ETA/GFS STILL HAVING DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE WEST...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WHILE THE ETA HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADDITION IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST...AS IT DEVELOPS ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE THE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A LONGER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A LATER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS SLOWER TO WRAP IN. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK TO HAVE THIS IN HAND. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING...TODAY...TRI CITIES REGION AND TUSCOLA...HURON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...TODAY.... MIZ047>048-053>055-060>063-068>070. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 915 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 .UPDATE... WE WILL BE UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE TRI CITIES, TUSCOLA COUNTIES. RECENT REPORTS ARE CLOSE TO 3-5" WITH STILL MORE TO COME UPSTREAM. WE WILL UPDATE THIS DISCUSSION WITH MORE DETAILS IN A BIT... BGM && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 419 AM EST 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE...WITH A NUMBER OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INTO QUEBEC...WITH A SHARP TROUGH BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDE AREA OF SNOW APPARENT ON REGIONAL RADARS...EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AGAIN IN THE FIRST PERIOD...REVOLVING AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND RESULTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OVERALL ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR TAKING THE UPPER LOW TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY SLOWLY EAST SO FAR OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL PICK UP AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SWINGS AROUND AND HELPS ACCELERATE IT EAST. MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS TRANSLATES TO MORE APPARENT DIFFERENCES WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. GFS INDICATES BETTER LIFT FARTHER WEST THAN THE ETA...BRINGING GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CWA. COMPARED TO ENHANCED CLOUDS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CWBI/CWGJ /BRITT/MONTREAL RIVER/ REFLECTIVITY PATTERNS...GFS 700MB/500MB OMEGA PATTERNS APPEAR TO VERIFY BETTER THAN THE ETA AT 06Z. WILL THEREFORE LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. OMEGA FIELD IS A RESULT OF DECENT WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. ALSO SOME DPVA RESULTANT FROM SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED AROUND 285K SURFACE. INITIAL SURGE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO GENERAL 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. APX RADAR UPSTREAM DOES SNOW A BIT OF A BREAK OUT OVER LAKE HURON...BUT WITH UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS FILLED IN WITH SNOW BACK INTO QUEBEC. 00Z GFS/06Z RUC ROTATE A BULLSEYE OF STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE CWA GENERALLY 12Z-18Z...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY NEAR SUNRISE. GFS/RUC ALSO SIMILAR WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AROUND 2G/KG. GFS ALSO QUICKLY SWINGS THE PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA...WITH MOS POPS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANYTHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT QUITE BY INTO THIS TIMING GIVEN UPSTREAM RADARS AND A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SWING THE SYSTEM EAST TOO QUICKLY. WILL HOLD ON TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...MENTIONING HEAVIEST SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. DURATION OF LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND AM LEANING TOWARD A LONGER DURATION. CROSS SECTIONS/TIME SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE BEST LIFT CENTERED RIGHT AROUND THE -15C ISOTHERM...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH. GIVEN SNOW AMOUNTS WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT...WILL OPT FOR HIGH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES TODAY. THIS WOULD PUT US AT A TOTAL NEAR 7 INCHES FOR THE EVENT...BUT SPREAD ACROSS 18 HOURS. DO NOT SEE MOST AREAS RECEIVE WARNING CRITERIA OF 6" IN 12HR/8" IN 24HR /EXCEPT FOR HURON COUNTY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH/. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW BUT EXTEND IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A LATER ENDING TIME AND WITH THE OPTION OF CANCELING IT EARLY IF NECESSARY. WAYNE COUNTY IS A POTENTIAL PROBLEM. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD RECEIVE SIMILAR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO LIVINGSTON/SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. HOWEVER THEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH SNOW AS THE COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST...WHERE WE COULD BE SEEING SOME LAKE MICHIGAN INTERACTION/ENHANCEMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS. BEST LIFT/MOISTURE DOES PASS JUST NORTHWEST OF WAYNE...SO WILL KEEP THEM AT 2-4 INCHES FOR THE DAY. FOR HURON COUNTY...WILL UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH BACKS TO THE NORTH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH 850MB COLD POOL HOLDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. ALSO GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCES INDICATED NEAR THE TIP OF THE THUMB. WITH THE ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WILL INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS TO 4-6 INCHES FOR TODAY. HURON COUNTY CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTED AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE PORT AUSTIN AREA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WARNING CRITERIA OF >= 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. LIFT/MOISTURE PULLS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WE SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING SKY COVER FORECAST SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE FOR TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...WITH DROP MINS TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES ON SATURDAY. ETA/GFS STILL HAVING DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE WEST...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WHILE THE ETA HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADDITION IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST...AS IT DEVELOPS ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE THE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A LONGER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A LATER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS SLOWER TO WRAP IN. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK TO HAVE THIS IN HAND. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING...TODAY...TRI CITIES REGION AND TUSCOLA...HURON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...TODAY.... MIZ047>048-053>055-060>063-068>070. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 419 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE...WITH A NUMBER OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INTO QUEBEC...WITH A SHARP TROUGH BACK ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDE AREA OF SNOW APPARENT ON REGIONAL RADARS...EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AGAIN IN THE FIRST PERIOD...REVOLVING AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND RESULTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. OVERALL ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR TAKING THE UPPER LOW TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY SLOWLY EAST SO FAR OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL PICK UP AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SWINGS AROUND AND HELPS ACCELERATE IT EAST. MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS TRANSLATES TO MORE APPARENT DIFFERENCES WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. GFS INDICATES BETTER LIFT FARTHER WEST THAN THE ETA...BRINGING GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CWA. COMPARED TO ENHANCED CLOUDS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CWBI/CWGJ /BRITT/MONTREAL RIVER/ REFLECTIVITY PATTERNS...GFS 700MB/500MB OMEGA PATTERNS APPEAR TO VERIFY BETTER THAN THE ETA AT 06Z. WILL THEREFORE LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. OMEGA FIELD IS A RESULT OF DECENT WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. ALSO SOME DPVA RESULTANT FROM SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED AROUND 285K SURFACE. INITIAL SURGE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO GENERAL 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. APX RADAR UPSTREAM DOES SNOW A BIT OF A BREAK OUT OVER LAKE HURON...BUT WITH UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS FILLED IN WITH SNOW BACK INTO QUEBEC. 00Z GFS/06Z RUC ROTATE A BULLSEYE OF STRONGER LIFT THROUGH THE CWA GENERALLY 12Z-18Z...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY NEAR SUNRISE. GFS/RUC ALSO SIMILAR WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AROUND 2G/KG. GFS ALSO QUICKLY SWINGS THE PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA...WITH MOS POPS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANYTHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT QUITE BY INTO THIS TIMING GIVEN UPSTREAM RADARS AND A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SWING THE SYSTEM EAST TOO QUICKLY. WILL HOLD ON TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...MENTIONING HEAVIEST SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. DURATION OF LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND AM LEANING TOWARD A LONGER DURATION. CROSS SECTIONS/TIME SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE BEST LIFT CENTERED RIGHT AROUND THE -15C ISOTHERM...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH. GIVEN SNOW AMOUNTS WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT...WILL OPT FOR HIGH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES TODAY. THIS WOULD PUT US AT A TOTAL NEAR 7 INCHES FOR THE EVENT...BUT SPREAD ACROSS 18 HOURS. DO NOT SEE MOST AREAS RECEIVE WARNING CRITERIA OF 6" IN 12HR/8" IN 24HR /EXCEPT FOR HURON COUNTY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH/. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW BUT EXTEND IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A LATER ENDING TIME AND WITH THE OPTION OF CANCELING IT EARLY IF NECESSARY. WAYNE COUNTY IS A POTENTIAL PROBLEM. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD RECEIVE SIMILAR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO LIVINGSTON/SHIAWASSEE COUNTIES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. HOWEVER THEY HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH SNOW AS THE COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST...WHERE WE COULD BE SEEING SOME LAKE MICHIGAN INTERACTION/ENHANCEMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS. BEST LIFT/MOISTURE DOES PASS JUST NORTHWEST OF WAYNE...SO WILL KEEP THEM AT 2-4 INCHES FOR THE DAY. FOR HURON COUNTY...WILL UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH BACKS TO THE NORTH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH 850MB COLD POOL HOLDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. ALSO GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCES INDICATED NEAR THE TIP OF THE THUMB. WITH THE ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WILL INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS TO 4-6 INCHES FOR TODAY. HURON COUNTY CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTED AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE PORT AUSTIN AREA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WARNING CRITERIA OF >= 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. LIFT/MOISTURE PULLS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WE SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING FOR TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING SKY COVER FORECAST SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE FOR TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...WITH DROP MINS TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES ON SATURDAY. ETA/GFS STILL HAVING DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO THE WEST...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WHILE THE ETA HAS MORE OF AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADDITION IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST...AS IT DEVELOPS ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE THE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A LONGER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A LATER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS SLOWER TO WRAP IN. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK TO HAVE THIS IN HAND. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING...TODAY...MIZ049 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...TODAY.... MIZ047>048-053>055-060>063-068>070. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 940 PM PST WED DEC 24 2003 .UPDATE... FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS EASTERN CA AND WESTERN NV AS A WAVE STARTS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 130W. PRECIP HAS DECREASED SOME AS FRONT HAS SLOWED BUT UPSLOPE CONTINUES INTO THE SIERRA. PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT PERIOD DETERMINING WHAT FRONT WILL DO AS WAVE MOVES IN. BOTH GFS/ETA/RUC SHOW FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING AS WAVE MOVES IN WITH LITTLE IF ANY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BY 15Z. SO EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD UPPER JET SUPPORT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE HEAVIEST NEAR FRONT SO HAVE ADJUSTED ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3 FOR MORE ACCUMULATIONS BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND HAVE WORDED AS SUCH. ALSO EXPECT HEAVY SNOWS IN LAKE TAHOE REGION AND SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY WHERE WARNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 6000 FEET WHERE RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...HAVE LEFT ZONE 71 WARNING... BUT MAINLY FOR THE PORTOLA AREA AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE WELL INTO THE COLD AIR. WALLMANN && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY ZONE 2 SNOW ADVISORY MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR ZONE 3 .CA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR ZONE 71 ABOVE 5500 FEET WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONE 72 WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY ZONE 73 ABOVE 6000 FEET && $$ nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 335 PM EST THU DEC 25 2003 AN INTERESTING CHRISTMAS FORECAST ON TAP THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC CONITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MEOSCALE LAKE EFFECT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT HAVE REMAINED A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND LESS SYNOPTIC PCPN FELL...SO HAVE REWORKED THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS TO REFLECT NEXT 12-24 HOURS WORTH OF PROJECTED SNOW. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER LK ERIE WHILE THE REFLECTED SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE FLOW IN THE LAYERS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS THUS NOT WELL ALIGNED...SO LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY EXPECT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER WITH H8 TEMPS OF -9C OR SO OVER LK ERIE..BUT WITH A MOISTURE LADDEN AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS...STILL EXPECT LK EFFECT TO BECOME ORGANIZED LATER THIS MORNING. OFF LK ERIE... LAKE INDEX REVEALS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT PRESSTIME...BUT VALUES TURN NEGATIVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. A GENERAL 240 FLOW SHOULD THEN ALLOW WET LAKE SNOWS TO DEVELOP FROM THE LAKE SHORES OF CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES INTOT HE BUF METRO AREA. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...THE CAP SHOULD RISE TO ARND 8K FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR. FAIRLY GOOD SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AEA TO BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON BUT LK INDUCED CAPES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 200-300 J/KG RANGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR SO AN HOUR...SO WILL KEEP LOW END WARNING IN PLACE WITH DAYTIME VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 5-9 INCH RANGE FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LK SHORE-BUF CORRIDOR. BY MID AFTERNOON...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO 260 WITH THE LAKE SNOWS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING COUNTY. GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A PROGRESSIVELY VEERING FLOW...WILL LOWER WARNINGS IN GENESEE AND WYOMING COUNTIES TO HIGH END ADVISORIES. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO 300 DEG DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH THE CAP COMING DOWN IN THE PROCESS. THIS WILL SEND THE LAKE SNOWS WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH WAA AND INCREASED SHEAR ENDING THE LES BY DAYBREAK. OFF LK ONTARIO... AIRMASS WILL BE SOME 5 DEG C WARMER TO START. DO NOT EXPECT TRUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BEGIN EAST OF LK ONTARIO UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE THE ACTIVITY OFF LK ERIE...THE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE ARND 240 DEG. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD START ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY BY NIGHTFALL AND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. CAP IS ONLY EXPECTED TO COME UP TO ABT 7K AND THERE IS NOT NEARLY THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA IN PLACE THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER LK ERIE...BUT THAT SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CROSSING SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO 270-280 DEG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL SEND THE ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY. THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE LAKE SNOWS COUPLED WITH THE UNFAVORABLE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE THREE COUNTIES EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THE LK SNOWS WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO A LITTLE WRAP ARND SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED. THE MESOSCALE MODELS (WRKSTN ETA, RUC10, ETA12) ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LK ERIE ACTIVITY...BUT DIVERGE ON LK ONTARIO LES. HAVE THROWN OUT SPURIOUS RUC10 SOLUTION FOR THIS PARTICULAR ACTIVITY AND HAVE FAVORED WRKSTN ETA SOLUTION WHICH GOES WELL WITH ABV DISCUSION. A PERIOD OF VERY NICE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A STRONG RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +8 OVER PARTS OF THE FA ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE SOME LOW 50S TO END THE WEEKEND. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON PROJECTED MRF 1000MB TEMPS FOR OVN MINS. THIS IS ESP THE CASE FOR THE MONDAY MORNING MINS...WHICH SHOW A 10-15 DEG DIFFERENCE WITH THE CLIMATE WEIGHTED MEX GUIDANCE. .BUF...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY NYZ010 WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND EARLY TON NYZ019-020-085 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY NYZ011 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY AND EARLY TON NYZ012 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT NYZ006>008 $$ RSH ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 205 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 .DISCUSSION... ETA/GFS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES WHICH IMPACT OUR FA THROUGH 72-HRS. HOWEVER...WITH REGARDS TO TRENDS...THE GFS SHOWS TO BE THE MORE CONSISTANT MODEL THIS RUN. FOR TODAY...PROBLEM WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. THE MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING WITH S/W ROTATING AROUND CLOSED LOW...BUT AFFECTING MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF OUR FA...IF THAT. ALSO NOTED IS SOME WK 85H CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH NW-SE ORIENTED 35 KT JETLET. WK BDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALSO EVIDENT WITH PRESSURE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING SE ACROSS OUR NE ZONE. SOME INSTABILITY ALSO FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. CURENTLY QUESTIONING WHETHER THIS WARRENTS SLT CHC POPS FOR THE NE PORTION OF OUR FA TODAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH S/W CURRENTLY SWINGING OUT OF SE IN AS NOTED IN LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF OUR FA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAY HAVE TO KEEP SLT CHC THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING FOR THIS AREA. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. AM TENDING MORE TOWARD THE MAV. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH BRINING DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. WILL WEIGH MORE TOWARD THE MAV. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ JTD oh SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 930 AM CST WED DEC 25 2003 .UPDATE...CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST IS IN REALLY GREAT SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO INCREASE CLOUDS IN WEST AND TWEAK TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST VIS SAT AND 13Z RUC. 12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES A VIGOROUS COLD MID LVL SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. H5 TEMPS WERE -21 AT MIDLAND THIS MORNING AND -16 AT CRP...WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO JUST UNDER AN INCH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT SITS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE S/W WAS INDUCING MOD/STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AS INDICATED BY 12Z BRO SOUNDING AND VIS SATELLITE...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE S/W TRACKS INTO EAST TEXAS. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL BEND. ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE WINDS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW LVL JET INCREASES. MAY BUMP WINDS UP TO SCEC CONSIDERING THE CURRENT OBSERVATION OF 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 17 KNOTS AT BUOY 42020. JM/75...SHORT TERM && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW INCREASING SERLY FLOW THIS AFTN. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR BIG BEND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOC W/ THIS FEATURE INITIALLY...HOWEVER MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING GOOD MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BELIEVE ETA IS A LITTLE TO STRONG WRT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AS IT IS A LITTLE TO DEEP W/ THE SFC LOW OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEREFORE IS ALSO A LITTLE TO STRONG WRT ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN LATER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER THE TREND OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT (AND MOISTURE) LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT IS CORRECT (JUST TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN ETA INDICATES). THERERFORE BELIEVE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRYER MAV AND WETTER MET POPS IS IN ORDER. WILL SHOW LOW END CHC POPS ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND ACROSS ERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMISED AND A SECONDARY S/WV SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION HOWEVER TOUGH CALL AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER ITS DEVELOPMENT ESP IN THE EAST. MID-UPR LVL RIDGING ON FRI...DECREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD AND S-SW SFC-H85 FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY FRI W/ TEMPS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MANY LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WILL BE GOING WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLN WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF UPR LVL TROF MOVING OUT OF ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GLOB ENS MEAN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLN. WITH THAT SAID ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. SHOULD BE BREEZY ACROSS THE EAST. MAY SEE AN ISOL SHOWER OR TWO ON SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH. SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE EAST TO PRODUCE A FEW STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WATERS. THEN LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST INTO HGX AREA AND WE AWAIT COLD FRONT AND BRIEF JET MAX/UPR LVL DYNAMICS SUN MORNING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED ACROSS THE EAST AND OVER THE WATERS. THEREFORE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING WILL BE ORIENTED FROM 50S OVER THE WATERS AND NORTHEAST TO 20S OUT IN FAR WRN WEBB. SHOULD SEE BRIEF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER LAND BEHIND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE BAYS AND WATERS. WILL BE LOWERING MON AND TUE MORNING LOWS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...NOT AS MUCH TUE MORNING AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. GFS INDICATING 850 FREEZING LINE DIPPING BETWEEN HOU AND VCT SUN NIGHT. WILL LOWER LOWS A CAT OR TWO MON MORNING...UNDERCUTTING MEX BY A DEGREE OR TWO. GFS TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING SRN ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST TUE AS WELL AS INCREASING POPS WED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 69 60 77 62 77 / 30 30 05 05 10 VICTORIA 65 55 73 59 74 / 30 30 10 05 20 LAREDO 72 53 80 59 80 / 10 10 00 05 05 && .CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ 88...SHORT-TERM 76...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 930 AM PST THU DEC 25 2003 .SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OVER THE CWFA. RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS ALSO SHOWING THE FRONT LEFT QUAD OF A +120KT JET OVER THE DISTRICT PROVIDING GOOD SUPPORT OF HEAVY PRECIP THIS MORNING. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING PERPENDICULAR WITH THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...OROGRAPHIC CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM TODAY. QPF ANALYSIS FROM SACRAMENTO IS SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF WATER TODAY AND LINGERING TOTALS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF WATER THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND SNOW ADVISORY OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...RESPECTIVELY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE VALLEY IS SHOWING THIS MORNINGS FOG ALREADY DIMINISHING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM TODAY. THIS MORNINGS KHNX DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS MOUNTAINS ARE SHOWING THE FREEZING LEVEL AT NEAR 5000 TO 6000 FEET. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT THE SNOW TO FALL AS FAR DOWN THE MOUNTAINS AS 4000 FEET TODAY. YET...BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FEET ACROSS THE SIERRA AND ABOVE 6000 FEET OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. && $$ MOLINA ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 200 PM EST THU DEC 25 2003 CURRENTLY: A HIGH CIRRUS DECK...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER TEXAS...DEVELOPED EARLIER AND MORE DENSE THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS HELD UP MIN TEMPS IN FL ZONES THIS MORNING AND HOLDING DOWN THE MAX TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NE AND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && SHORT TERM: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY AND TOMORROW KEEPING COOL A DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TRICKY TONIGHT...YET HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN SOME BY DAYBREAK AIDING IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS GUIDANCE PLACES MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...THIS MAY BE A TAD TO LOW. THIS EVENINGS FORECAST WILL BE MIN TEMPS AROUND 30 FOR THE INLAND FL BIG BEND/PANHANDLE, SE AL AND SW GA (PROMPTING A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT)...AND THE LOWER 30S FOR THE COASTAL FL PANHANDLE. TEMPS IN THE THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING. && MARINE FX: WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA AND INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && FIRE WX: THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE FL BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN DROPPED DUE TO RH VALUES NOT BEING MET. THE FWW FOR THE FL BIG BEND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO MARGINAL DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT. && EXTENDED FX: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OVER WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT PER GFS AND HPC. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ON THURSDAY ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 29 62 32 66 / 00 00 00 00 PFN 35 62 39 66 / 00 00 00 00 DHN 32 60 37 64 / 00 00 00 00 ABY 30 59 33 65 / 00 00 00 00 VLD 30 62 34 67 / 00 00 00 00 CTY 29 64 35 70 / 00 00 00 00 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR ALL ZONES. GA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR ALL ZONES. FL...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BIG BEND EXCEPT THE COAST. FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR ALL INLAND ZONES. $$ BOLINSKI PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.************************************************* .OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE CWFA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER TX. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. GFS PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY BASED ON GFS H5-H3 RH PROGS. && .FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES OVER FL THIS AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BUT DO NOT INTEND TO DROP THE CURRENT WARNING. && .MARINE...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RUC PROGS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED. $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ****************************************************** 230 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003 CURRENTLY: CLEAR ACROSS LOCAL AREA. TEMPS FROM AROUND FREEZING SE ALA/NRN SW GA SECTIONS TO NEAR 40 FLA COAST. DEW POINTS FROM 30 NRN MOST COUNTIES TO AROUND 40 COAST. 24 TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON SHOWS THAT LOCAL AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN SAME TIME LAST NIGHT WHEN FRONT WAS CROSSING CWFA. WINDS GENERALLY N 5-10 MPH. DISCUSSION: HO HO HO !!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS AND SANTA WILL BRING A BAG FULL OF FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEEKEND FOR HIS AREA RESIDENTS. DEEP LO OVR GREAT LAKES TO MOVE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH LARGE SCALE TROF MOVG E ACROSS WRN CONUS THRU SHORT TERM. THUS SE CONUS TO REMAIN UNDER INFLU OF RIDGE YIELDING FAIR WX. CLOSER TO HOME...SATELLITE SHOWS UPR SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL GULF THIS MORNING TOWARDS CWFA SPREADING INCRG CIRRUS. AT SFC...HI CENTERED LWR MISS VALLEY BUILDING E/SE. NO POPS IN FORECAST THRU WEEKEND. FORECAST QUESTION IS 1ST/2ND PD TEMPS AND FLY IN OINTMENT IS ABOVE MENTIONED CIRRUS. BOTH FASTER ETA AND SLOWER GFS MODEL SHOW SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD AND BRINGING INCRG CIRRUS...TIMING BOTH MODELS ETA CLEARS US OUT AROUND 2 AM AND GFS AROUND 4-5 AM. THIS DIFFERENCE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING EXTENT OF RAD COOLING AND OVERNIGHT MINS AND FREEZE WARNING POTENTIAL. FIRST FOR 1ST PERIOD..MODELS IN GENLLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS COOLEST AND ETA WARMEST. BELIEVE CIRRUS WILL HAVE MORE OF IMPACT THAN MODELS SHOW SO FOR NOW WILL BUT COOLEST TEMPS (GENERALLY GFS) FOR THIS AFTN. LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. LINGERING CIRRUS WILL OBLIGE ME TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN GUIDANCE. THIS PUTS INLAND AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND COASTAL SECTIONS ABOVE FREEZING. BUT A SHIFT OF ONE OR TWO DEGREES CAN ALTER SCHEME. FOR NOW PER OFFICE POLICY..WILL HEADLINE ZFP WITH FREEZE WARNING POSSIBLE SE ALA/GA...LIKELY FLA INLAND. ZFP WILL BREAK UP FLA INTO INLAND/COASTAL SECTIONS. 1ST PERIOD WILL SHOW P/CLOUDY WITH MNLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. FRI-SAT...AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...RIDGING BUILDS OVR CWFA AND SFC HI MOVES EWD TO VCNTY OF CWFA ON FRI. WINDS VEER TO NE/E AND MAX TEMPS WARM UP TO LOW TO MID 60S. LACK OF CLOUDS FRI NIGHT AND PREDAWN LOWS DROP TO AROUND FREEZING COLDEST INLAND SPOTS. ON SAT...HI SHIFTS EWD AND WINDS VEER TO ESE WITH RISING TEMPS. && EXTENDED: HI PRES AND FAIR WX HOLD ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY A CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPS AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUES INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCES MON AND TUESDAY. NEW GUIDANCE A TAD FASTER AND MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO INHERITED SUNDAY NIGHT-MON FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && MARINE: PREDAWN BUOYS SHOWS CONTS DECR IN WINDS AND SEAS. WILL CONT ONE CWF GROUPING WITH SLOWLY DECRG CONDS INTO SAT B4 SLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. && FIRE WX: RH GRIDS SHOW AROUND 4 HOURS OF AOB 35 PCT RH THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WX FORECASTER WILL LIKELY GO WITH RED FLAG BIG BEND ONLY TODAY WITH WATCH FOR ALL OF INLAND FLA TOMORROW. && THANKS JAX FOR COORDINATION && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 55 30 62 34/ 00 00 00 00 PFN 54 35 61 39/ 00 00 00 00 DHN 52 34 60 38/ 00 00 00 00 ABY 52 30 59 35/ 00 00 00 00 VLD 54 31 63 36/ 00 00 00 00 CTY 59 30 64 37/ 00 00 00 00 && $$ BLOCK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1120 AM CST THU DEC 25 2003 .DISCUSSION... VARIABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AS RUC INDICATING PERHAPS GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO EAST TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS REBOUNDING FAIRLY NICELY IN SE WINDS...DESPITE BROKEN CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER 10 TO 12 DEGREE RISE FROM 11 AM READINGS IN PLAUSIBLE... WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS NEAR MID 50. EAST TX MAY EVEN GET A LITTLE WARMER...WITH TEMPS ALREADY NEAR 50 DEGREES. NO UPDATE NEEDED. && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ VII la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 344 PM EST THU DEC 25 2003 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW. A RIDGE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ONTARIO. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. A TROUGH IS TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA BROUGHT SUNSHINE TO THE AREA TODAY. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES THE CLOSED LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WEST WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE WERE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CONDITION FAIR OVER THE AREA AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS RIDGE TRACKS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL NAVIGATE THROUGH IT ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE AS THE THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND STARTS TO PUSH AGAINST THE RIDGE. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH FARTHER INTO EASTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN IT. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MOST ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UP TO NEAR 700MB THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS IS REASONABLE WHEN CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK SLOWLY EAST AS THE MID LEVEL LOW IS DIVERTED NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY AND TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FEATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH ITS BASE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DURING THE SAME TIME THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED ON THE INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILES FOR THE U.P. SHOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START AT RAIN AND GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER OVER TO SNOW AS COLD AIR ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO ON MONDAY. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BLANKET THE FORECAST AREA FEEDING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CREATE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S AROUND 16C. WITH A THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND...LAKE EFFECT WILL THEREFORE ENHANCE SNOW OVER THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TREK INTO JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS EAST...A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE WILL HELP TO END ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. GFS SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRAWING MOIST AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GFS SHOWING DELTA-T'S OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL STILL BE AROUND 12-14C. WITH THE INCREASE MOISTURE AND A SOUTH FLOW EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. MORE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ADVECTING IN WILL PRODUCE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTH PART OF CWA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 205 PM EST THU DEC 25 2003 .SHORT TERM (TON-SAT)... PER RUC80 ANALYSIS...17Z POSITION OF UPPER LOW WAS JUST WEST OF BUF...WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A MOVEMENT SINCE 12Z LOCAL HAND ANALYSIS POSN. LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE SE QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW WAS BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO CNY/NEPA WHICH WILL GRDLY MOVE EAST THRU THE LATE AFTN. SPEED MAX TO THE WEST SIDE OF LOW WAS ENHANCING LAKE MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GTLKS. CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP ACROSS NRN PA THIS EVENING...BUT ENTIRE FCST AREA STILL STANDS TO COME UNDER SOME DPVA FORCING AND LLVL CONVERGENCE.IT NEVER TAKES MUCH TO SUPPORT PRECIP IN THIS AREA WHEN LLVL FLOW IS MOIST... CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPING INTO OUR HILLS. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW TUMBLES OVERHEAD...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...LLVL NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER LAKE ONTARIO. LOTS OF FACTORS GOING AGAINST GOOD LAKE BANDING TONIGHT. FIRST OFF... BACKDOOR WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST BEHIND LOW ESPLY AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL HELP TO CRASH DOWN EQUILIBRIUM LVLS AND RAISE THE FVRBL DENDRITE LAYER TO NEARLY 12KFT BY FRI AM. LAKE INDICES RISE ABV 0 AT SYR AND UCA IN RESPONSE. EXPECT ANY FLAKES TO BE MAINLY NEEDLES AND THUS POOR ACCUMULATORS. WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL. SO ASIDE FROM A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WHERE FVRBL CONDITIONS LINE UP...WE DO NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM LES OR SYNOPTIC SNOW ANYWHERE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT WILL NOT CALL FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION GIVEN POOR THERMAL PROFILES PROGGED BY BUFKIT. WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND SFC TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING STILL IN THE LOW 30S WILL TEND TO PROMOTE SOME INITIAL MELTING TOO. OVERALL WILL SAY 1-2" PSBL FAR NRN ZONES AND AN INCH FOR HIGH TERRAIN OF STEUBEN CO WHERE ERIE INFLUENCE COULD BE FELT. ELSEWHERE...DUSTINGS TO HALF INCH. LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY ON FRIDAY WITH HGHT RISES...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FROM ALOFT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ONE MORE WEAK WAVE CROSSES DURING THE MORNING...BUT INSTABILITY AND UPWARD MOTION IS CONFINED TO MAINLY 850 MB AND BELOW. WE WILL LINGER SCT-LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO JUST FLURRIES FOR NRN NY ZONES...AS SOME SPITS MAY STILL LINGER IN NWLY FLOW BEFORE RIDGING SQUELCHES EVERYTHING BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB RIDGE OF +5-6C WILL CREATE AN ABOVE NORMAL WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)... HIGH RIDGING OVER CWA THIS WEEKEND WILL PUMP WARM AIR NE FOR MON AND SUN. PRECIP WILL ALSO BEGIN MON PM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON TIMING OF FRONT BUT ARE CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. COMPROMISE WOULD BE TUE AM. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE FROPA MON NGT. GFS FASTEST MON EVE WITH MOST OTHER MODELS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. COLD AIR WITH A BROAD UL TROF WILL SET OFF MORE LES BEHIND FRONT. A BRIEF BREAK WED PM INTO THU AM BEFORE A SLOWER MOVING WETTER SYSTEM MOVES NE TOWARDS CWA. THIS COULD BE A MIX OF PRECIP THU INTO FRI. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE WITH SOME MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND VSBYS AND EVEN IFR AT ITH DUE TO CIGS. TEMPO LOWER CONDITIONS FOR THE SHSN. THESE SHSN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS UL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER CWA WITH SPOKES OF PVA MOVG AROUND IT. LAKE INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINAL WITHOUT THE FORCING. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY FRI WITH WAA BEHIND LOW. THIS WAA AND LOWERING INVERSION WILL CUT OFF LAKE INFLUENCE. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 MOST TAFS MOST TIMES WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. ELM AND AVP MAY BE LESS TONIGHT BEFORE IT MIXES OUT AND INCREASES FRI. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. PA...NONE. $$ BREWSTER - SHORT TERM CHAMPNEY - LONG TERM/AVIATION ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 340 PM EST THU DEC 25 2003 CURRENT ADVISORIES EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY AS LATEST RUC AND ETA RUNS SHOW UPPER LOW MOVING A SLOWER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED. HENCE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CAN LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...WHICH MEANS OUR AIR NEXT WEEK WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. REGARDING THE DAILY WEATHER...FOR THE WEEKEND...MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER. THEN THERE WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES LATE MONDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NEW YEARS DAY. FOR MONDAY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO BE PREFRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS AND POSTFRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE NEW YEARS DAY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS LESS DEFINITE...SO BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MENTIONED SIMULTANEOUSLY. .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY FOR ZONE MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY FOR ZONES PAZ007>009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY FOR ZONES PAZ023-030-032. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY FOR ZONES WVZ023-041. $$ ROR/LAG pa